2021 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – June 17, 2021

2021 Draft

This is the Phuture Phillies forum for the discussion of prospects eligible for the amateur draft that is scheduled to be held in four weeks (July 11-13, 2021).  You can place video, scouting reports, or just comments here.  You can reference these weekly discussions on the menu above.

The Phillies have the 13th pick in a first round of 29 selections.  The cheating Astros don’t have a first-round pick.  (Or a second-round pick)  There are 20 rounds plus two supplemental rounds.

The Phillies have a bonus pool allotment of $8,295,000.  Bonus assignments for the Phillies’ picks are –

  1. 13th overall: $4,197,300
  2. 49th overall: $1,507,600
  3. 84th overall: $721,900
  4. 114th overall: $507,400
  5. 145th overall: $375,200
  6. 175th overall: $284,200
  7. 205th overall: $222,100
  8. 235th overall: $177,400
  9. 265th overall: $155,800
  10. 295th overall: $146,100
  11. 325th overall: picks in rounds 11 thru 20 are each capped at $125, 000 which doesn’t count against the bonus pool; any portion exceeding this figure counts against the bonus pool.
  12. 355th overall: capped at $125, 000
  13. 385th overall: capped at $125, 000
  14. 415th overall: capped at $125, 000
  15. 445th overall: capped at $125, 000
  16. 475th overall: capped at $125, 000
  17. 505th overall: capped at $125, 000
  18. 535th overall: capped at $125, 000
  19. 565th overall: capped at $125, 000
  20. 595th overall: capped at $125, 000

Contracts for non-drafted free agents are capped at $20,000.

Feel free to discuss the 2021 international signing period, too.  It began on January 15, 2021, and runs through December 15, 2021.

The Phillies’ international signing pool is $4,732,700.  We were penalized some of our bonus pool for signing Zach Wheeler.  The Angels are receiving the same amount and were penalized for signing Anthony Rendon.  Only the Yankees (Gerrit Cole ) and Braves (Marcell Ozuna plus penalties for the 2017 scandal) are receiving less.

International bonus pools are a hard cap.  Teams cannot exceed their allotments.  No trading of bonus pool allotments this year.

This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and international signing period.  This is NOT a place for you to complain about past picks/signings or the organization’s past/current draft and international philosophies.

73 thoughts on “2021 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – June 17, 2021”

    1. Interesting they have Sal Frelick and also Colton Cowser as one of the four for best hitters discussion.
      Will the Phillies take yet another OFer as their first pick in the first round!

    2. Great reading, thanks for attaching. I’m interested in Montgomery and Painter’s upside at our pick 13. Who do you like who will likely reach us?

  2. College season is close to over, Hinkie. When will you do your updated Phillies draft wish list?

    1. matt … I’m going to try to find some time to put together another Phillies mock this week.

      Murray … I like Anthony Solometo (Bishop Eustace LHP) a lot. Although, I’m not sure the club would select a HS pitcher with a first round pick two years in a row.
      I (like you) also like Benny Montgomery and Sal Frelick. My dark horse is Gavin Williams. I had Williams as a second round pick in one of my Phillies mocks. However, Williams, in his final college start (for ECU), was so dominant vs Vanderbilt in the NCAA Baseball Tournament, I doubt he lasts to the 2-49 pick.

      1. Agree Hinkie….if he is there in the 2nd round , he would be a good selection.
        Seems he has mastered his control issues from his undergraduate days.

  3. Where the Phils are in their development give me college arms early. HS arms are like hitting the lottery. Never seen Wicks pitch but based on write ups which isn’t much to go on I would go with him. Mikulski best arm I saw this year and Mason Black to me is a stronger version of Howard. I’ve seen those 2 live. Some others on TV. I would also take Rocker over Leiter at top.

  4. I see Rocker and I see Jim Bibby. Who seemed like he owned the Schmidt Bowa phillies

  8. I haven’t seen any of these guys and I always question competition, especially for the high school guys who didn’t attend the showcases, but in theory, I want a big strong fast guy with a big arm and lots of upside. I don’t want a 300 hitting OF with a weak arm and no power. Not in the 1st round. I think you swing big in the 1st for ceiling talent. I like the Solometo and Montgomery picks. I’m sure there are others but you have to know who the first 12 are first.

    1. You need to balance risk when it comes to first round picks. If you’re picking HS, the bust factor is really high. So you’re looking for elite tools as much as you can. If you’re going college, you’re looking for polish AND some measure of talent to be an above average player i.e. 3+ WAR.

      Solometo has some deception is his delivery and he has the size to grow into his body. You figure that his fastball will tick up as he ages.

  9. I posted this in the previous draft thread, but some may have missed it.

    BTW … Anthony Solometo was very good in the showcase events last summer. He was the best pitcher at the New Balance 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀. He K’d every batter he faced there.

      1. If the Phillies do take him….my initial thought will be……hopefully not Jason Groome revisited.

        1. Groome ended up suffering arm injuries after the Red Sox drafted him. But … I think teams had some other (maturity & family situation) concerns with Groome prior to the draft.

  10. Solemento has lot of deception in delivery but I have seen him and college guys. He does not have huge arm and not sure he is not as his ceiling now because of his bum garter esq delivery. Just my honest opinion seeing him live.

  11. .

    Phillies @ 1-13 … Colton Cowser
    McDaniel says he’s heard the Phillies mentioned with Benny Montgomery. However, in this mock, he has Montgomery going to Colorado @ 1-8.
    McDaniel has the Mariners (with the pick right before the Phillies) deciding between Sal Frelick and Cowser. He calls Seattle’s choice a “tossup”. So … I guess Frelick could be in play for the Phillies also.

    One last thing … he does not have Solometo going in the top 29 picks. That means probable discount for Brian Barber if he decides he wants the HS LHP.

    1. This is a good example of why MLB should allow draft pick trades like every other major sport. I believe the Phillies will have 3-4 guys to choose from at #13 that they really like making the point moot but suppose they didn’t. Suppose they like Solometo as much, if not more so, than the other available choices. If Solometo doesn’t have the value at 13 that the others do they could trade down 10 spots or so, collect additional draft picks with real value, and likely still get him.

      1. I 100% agree. But the problem is the cheap owners (i.e. Pirates, Marlins, etc.) who will trade their picks for cash and will gladly put out an inferior product as long as they make their profit every year. Imagine how much money the Pirates could extract from say the Red Sox if they put their #1 pick for sale?

        1. I’ve never seen a draft pick traded strictly for cash in the NFL or NBA, so I’m not sure I share the concern, especially now. Your example would be pretty blatant and Exhibit A for the PA’s argument for competitive balance. In my opinion, if MLB ever pursued draft pick trades they would probably take baby steps and start with only draft pick trades for other draft picks. The PA would likely sign off to ensure no shenanigans.

          With regards to your overarching point, I understand where you’re coming from and I know the current CBA negotiations include discussions on team’s salary floors. There will be a yin and yang to the floor and ceiling with threshold adjustments. We’ll see how it turns out.

          1. Yes. It’s ridiculous and short-sighted to not allow the trading of draft picks. The event could/would be more exciting/marketable if major deals involving players, prospects, and picks went down during the draft.

            That said … I’m kind of expecting MLB to legalize draft pick trades when the new CBA is hammered out this winter. I’m also hoping international prospects get either lumped in to the rule 4 draft, or a new draft is established specifically for the distribution of international kids.

          2. The problem is that MLB does not have a salary cap. So the small market teams can’t compete with the spending of the big boys (which includes the Phillies). So these small market know that their odds of winning a WS are slim, so why bother spending so much? If the Pirates had a $125M payroll, they are still about $70M less than the Phillies. And spending all that money doesn’t really increase their odds of winning a WS by that much. So these teams keep their costs down and try to make a profit. The owners are still businessmen after all. And MLB gives them hush money and calls it “competitive balance cash” so that the small market owners get more profit and don’t complain about how the big market teams are out spending them.

  13. Some Phillies draft talk from the guys at Prospects Live.

    1. Romus … in their last mock, they (Prospects Live) mocked the Phillies Sal Frelick in the first round, and Jay Allen in the second round.

  15. Solomento not super sharp. Couple hard hits couple wild pitches and several walks. Was throwing 90-92 was watching scouts gun. This was at carpenter cup

    1. Patso….yeah ….first guy first pitched lined a hit to CF…first inning was tough for him
      But he got thru it with a couple Ks.
      One thing for Solometo….he has very good size and quick action release……though he is a bit extreme in his delivery.
      The other LHP for Lehigh County did not look that bad, though he did not have the velo Solometo had.

    1. Thanks for that report, Patso. I just saw the box score: 3 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K. I mean it’s an all-star team, and he’s not throwing to his usual catcher and for his normal coach … but … that result in addition to your report is disappointing.

        1. No I went down.
          And you are correct…he was facing hitters that are a cut above the hitters he faces in his normal league..
          He may have also been a little nervous with more than just parents watching…plenty of scouts.
          There is a lot to like with his stuff, but needs that control factor and today it was not there…many low balls….and his delivery does have a violent aspect to it.

          1. Did you head over to Papi’s with Patso for happy hour and dinner after the game?

            2. LOL. Typo. I think I’ve been at Popi’s following just about every funeral I’ve attended over the last 20 years in Philly. As a matter of fact, we had my dad’s post funeral luncheon there.

  17. I believe it was his eustace catcher. He is just a young catcher but he didn’t help solemento with passed ball or two

    1. Patso….are you sure about that…only 6’…..he looked to be the biggest guy on that SJ Colonial team from what i could see.

    1. Well the Blue Hens are getting a good pitcher….have to see where he will be in three years when he is draft eligible again.

  20. Sang Ho Baek, a Pitcher from George Mason, passed away from complications of TJ surgery. I never heard of that before, and my condolences to his family. What a tragedy!

  21. Anytime u are cutting open a person in two spots things can go wrong. Plus TJ is not a 100 percent success rate. Son hurt elbow well renown doc in area said not torn ucl like college doc said. 80 percent chance recovery with rest. After 6 weeks elbow still sore doc schedules TJ. I do some research catchers come back from TJ surgery 58 percent of time. We stuck with the 80 percent and all went well.

  22. Romus my son is 6’1 and he says he is taller than him. That’s what I am going on. I saw him pitch at eustace and there were 25 scouts there so I don’t think that affected him. I recognized few of scouts there yesterday local guys and some northeast directors. My guess is teams either have him pegged at particular spot or narrowed down down to hime with couple others.

    Also his coach was an assistant with team so can’t use any excuses regarding coach or catcher which was eustace kid.

    1. Patso…my guess Solometo will go mid to late first round……17 thru 30 somewhere.
      Teams that have CBA picks…like one of these six…Miami Marlins…Detroit Tigers…
      Milwaukee Brewers….Tampa Bay Rays…..Cincinnati Reds…..Minnesota Twins….
      , can afford to take a HS pitcher since they will pick again shorty thereafter in round A.

  23. The guys at Perfect Game did their mock live. They give the Phillies Benny Montgomery.

    1. Hinkie……so of all the mocks….what player has the most ‘hits” for the Phillies selection?

      1. Sorry. Just saw this, Romus. It seems like Benny Montgomery is most often mocked to the Phillies. Whether he makes it to 1-13 or not seems like a good question. I’ve read the Rockies at 1-8 mentioned with him lately.

        1. Hinkie….thank you.
          Montgomery does have a high ceiling, bot bi=eing a HSer there is that risk factor involved.
          Looking at his video, he does remind me a little of Rocco,
          ………….. Baldelli.that is.

  27. The College World Series kicked off this weekend. A few pitchers who could be of interest to the Phillies were in action.

    * Ty Madden … squared off with Will Bednar when Texas took on Mississippi State. Madden went 7 IP (105 P), 2 R, 4 H, 2 BB, 10 K. The 6’3″/215 lb Longhorn RHP mostly used a 94-97 MPH FB that T98, and his sharp SL. This season Madden has totaled 107.2 IP, 71 H, 41 BB, 129 K. Madden has been getting some Cade Cavalli comps. Cavalli threw for another Big 12 school (Oklahoma), got picked at 1-22 by the Nationals last summer, dominated A+ (K’d 15 Threshers in a game vs Clearwater last month), and is already throwing in AA.

    * Will Bednar … got the “W” in that contest for Miss St. The 6’2″/229 lb Western Pa native absolutey dominated Texas’ hitters. He went 6 IP (108 P), 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 15 K! Bednar threw a 91-95 MPH FB (usually up in the zone), and a plus SL. Both offerings come with big time spin rates that gives them really good late life. He also throws a CB and CH that are more average. For 2021, he’s up to 80 IP, 68 H, 21 BB, 128 K.
    Bednar just turned 21 a week ago. He was a day three pick (Padres) out of HS. He’s going to go on day one in July. If Brian Barber wants him at 1-13, Bednar would most likely come at some sort of discount.

    1. * Andrew Abbott … is a 22 YO, 6’0″/180 lb LHP I’ve previously mentioned as good candidate for the Phillies in round two or three. The UVA pitching prospect comes equipped with a 91-95 MPH FB (that he likes to throw up in the zone), a high spin breaker/CB, and a developing CH. Abbott beat Tennessee by going 6 IP (104 P), 0 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 10 K. This season, he’s at 106.2 IP, 89 H, 34 BB, 162 K.

      1. … and one pretty cool moment from the UVA win over Tennessee.

        22 YO Cavalier’s catcher Logan Michaels (who was slashing just .243/.341/.304 before the game) hit his first HR of the season (only his second career long ball). He did it on Fathers Day in front of his dad who is fighting pancreatic cancer.
        Even better … Michaels had a premonition.

  28. Great gift to his father by L.Michaels. Just “celebrated” ten years since my sister passed from the worst cancer of all, pancreatic cancer. Doctors told her she had it in January. By June, she was gone. Miss her a lot. If anyone is looking for a cause to donate to, Lustgarten Foundation for research for pancreatic cancer is a very positive one. Hard to beat this cancer but they are trying their best.

  29. There are several youtube videos of Montgomery out there. I don’t understand why he takes a couple of hops before he throws the ball. That will never work in pro ball. He looks like a ballplayer and has the frame of an outfielder. Hope he can play if the Phillies draft him.

      1. Romus, obviously youtube videos are not exactly the best way to scout, but what more do we have? I watched Mickey M’s youtube videos and was happy they took him #1 in the draft. I will say it is easier to tell about a pitching prospect watching youtube than a hitting prospect.

        With the extra time before the draft the Phillies can at least bring in a lot of kids for tryouts in either Philly or down in Clearwater.

        1. NL……yes, hard to really get a good grasp on the nuances of a player sometimes thru youtubing.
          This is Dave D’s first draft and I am curious on how he approaches it.

  30. No lie but one of my other sons played against Groome. Very similar that what I read and heard was not the same when saw him pitch. Pitched against dons team up at Diamond Mation and he supposedly threw 95. That night pitching for a Philly based team Bubba Baseball Groome threw about 90. Later that season saw him pitch in Lake pointe Ga. placed was packed to watch him And he threw around 92. I guess biggest difference was Groome was close to 6’5. When in Lakepointe he pitched for Arsenal. Was kindof a gypsy going around to teams. Son caught a bullpen for him last summer said he was fat. There were rumored issues always round him.

    1. Solometo actually looking at his profile is built like a NFL TE….6’5″, 215 plus lbs

      https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=417891

      So the comp to Groome physically is pretty close…though Groome at the time as a senior in HS may have been more in the 190/195 lb area….but probably around the same ht.

      I do know that their deliveries are different…Groome was pretty smooth and fluid…Solometo does exert some whip action with a fair amount of energy

  31. Solomento is not as tall as Groome was by several inches but could likely do better. They have Petty at 6’2 and he is 5’ 10 stretched out. But I m sure scouts are well aware of these kids height.

    I think college pitchers are mostly such a better bet. The fact that all these sites say Giants like Wicks kid tells me something

  32. why do you think that scout add height to prospects happens in basketball and football as well, could it be marketing?

      1. Yeah…colleges do it all the time…even High Schools…….Combines like the NFL and now MLB….get them standing in their socks and on calibrated weigh scales.
        So a truer measurement is done.

  34. Rob Manfred has again turned the MLB into a clown show with his pitcher foreign substance edict. Like that was ruining baseball. Tonights five ring circus with Girardi and Scherzer was an embarrassment for baseball. The MLB has a clown for a commissioner and the sooner he quits or is fired Major League Baseball can start to heal. The MLBPA hates Manfred. Manfred has no deep love for baseball. The sooner he’s gone the better. This mid-season foreign substance edict is an unmitigated disaster.

Comments are closed.