Well, Wheler looks good, eh.
The Phillies won the first game of the Marlins series and the last game of the Red Sox series. Both wins were Wheeler’s starts. They went from 21-20 to 23-24. Four games against the Marlins this week then two in Tampa after a rare Friday off day.
Looks like centerfield is no longer a problem, for now. When do we start second-guessing not starting the season with him in centerfield?
We picked up a pitcher off the waiver wire, RHP Brady Lail from the Mariners. Ramon Rosso was DFA-ed.
I saw a lot of negative comments regarding Spencer Howard’s reason for “hitting the wall” with velocity after two innings. Unwarranted comments. He made the rookie mistake of trying to provide an explanation for something that wouldn’t be understood and would be taken the wrong way. He doesn’t realize yet that the simple fact that his velocity dropped was enough for the haters to come unglued. The fact that the explanation allowed unathletic people to question his physical shape was a bonus for the haters. He even took responsibility for not dawdling in the dugout like a veteran would have. Yet, the haters hate. It’s been a long time since my “athletic” days. I can remember the adrenaline rush in a lot of situations. I couldn’t control it either. Fortunately, I sucked, so the drop-off in the result wasn’t noticeable. I don’t know if that happened here. I haven’t read and I’m not going to go back and read our Comments Section.
This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.
- June 25, 2021 – Close of the 2020 international signing period
- June 28, 2021 – GCL season begins (through September 12th)
- July 11-13, 2021 – 2021 Amateur Draft
- July 12, 2021 – DSL starts (through October 2nd)
- July 30, 2021: Trade Deadline (4 p.m. ET)
- Oct. 3, 2021: Regular season concludes
The rosters and lists are up to date as of May 16th … 303 players in the org
The following players have turned up at XST – INF Uziel Viloria, INF Ruben Tejada, INF Juan Herrera, INF Wilson Valdez, C Edward Barboza, OF Jefferson Encarnacion, OF Felix Reyes.
- organization’s rosters (5/16)
- organization’s injury list (5/16)
- organization’s Rule 5 eligibility (5/16) (includes player info, assignments, …)
Transactions (last week’s transactions)
5/23/2021 – Phillies claimed RHP Brady Lail off waivers from Seattle
5/23/2021 – Phillies designated RHP Ramon Rosso for assignment
5/23/2021 – Phillies optioned RHP Brady Lail to Lehigh Valley
5/23/2021 – OF Corbin Williams assigned to XST from Reading
5/23/2021 – Jersey Shore transferred RHP Ben Brown to the Development List
5/23/2021 – SS Jose Tortolero assigned to Jersey Shore from GCL East
5/22/2021 – Phillies recalled RHP Spencer Howard from Lehigh Valley
5/22/2021 – Phillies placed LHP Matt Moore on the 10-day IL, lower back spasms
5/22/2021 – LHP Nick Lackney assigned to Reading from Clearwater
5/22/2021 – Jersey Shore placed RHP Mark Potter on the 7-day IL
5/22/2021 – Jersey Shore placed 3B Chris Cornelius on the 7-day IL
5/22/2021 – RHP Brendan Bell assigned to Clearwater from GCL East
5/21/2021 – Phillies sent CF Roman Quinn on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
5/21/2021 – Phillies placed C J.T. Realmuto on the 10-day IL, left hand contusion
5/21/2021 – Phillies activated RF Matt Joyce
5/21/2021 – RHP Julian Garcia assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
5/21/2021 – RHP Billy Sullivan assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
5/20/2021 – SS Sal Gozzo assigned to Lehigh Valley from Reading
5/20/2021 – OF Corbin Williams assigned to Reading from XST
5/18/2021 – Reading transferred LHP Nick Fanti from the 7-day IL to the 60-day IL
5/18/2021 – Jersey Shore transferred RHP Albertus Barber from the 7- to the 60-day IL
5/18/2021 – Clearwater transferred LHP Jordan Fowler from the 7- to the 60-day IL
5/18/2021 – C Juan Aparicio assigned to Clearwater from Extended Spring
5/18/2021 – Phillies activated SS Ronald Torreyes
5/18/2021 – Phillies placed SS Scott Kingery on the 7-day IL, concussion
5/18/2021 – Phillies placed LHP JoJo Romero on the 60-day IL, left elbow sprain
5/18/2021 – Phillies placed SS Didi Gregorius on the 10-day IL, right elbow
5/18/2021 – Phillies sent RF Matt Joyce on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
5/18/2021 – Phillies activated RHP Archie Bradley
5/18/2021 – 2B Ruben Tejada assigned to Lehigh Valley
5/18/2021 – C Chris Burke assigned to GCL East from Clearwater
5/18/2021 – SS Sal Gozzo assigned to Reading from Lehigh Valley
5/18/2021 – RHP Mark Potter assigned to Jersey Shore from Reading
325 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of May 23, 2021”
I had no issues with Odubel not making the team out of ST. The problem I had was calling up Moniak over Odubel when Moniak was clearly not ready.
As for Spencer Howard, I thought it was an odd excuse. He was already losing velocity in the second inning (down to 94-95). The Phillies need to find a solution to this ASAP.
Don’t get Jankiwski over Luke Williams? I mean maybe Phillies are nice and have Williams a choice but kind of doubt that. Phillies need wins now and they could use some pop with decent hit tool from right side off the bench. Not another fleet footed marginal lefty.
Is Randolph for real? Anyone have got a number on his splits/exit velocity etc.
Another question I can answer. Interestingly, ‘C” is hitting .125/.263/.125/.388 at home and .486/.500/.946/1.446 away. Could be he’s played 10 games on the road and only 5 games at home. He swings to bat from the left side. Versus lefties he’s hitting .444/.500/.556/1.056. Versus righties .364/.404/.727/1.132. He has 44 ABs against righties but only 9 against southpaws. He has all his HRs (4) and RBIs (13) against righties. Randolph has 11 Ks and 3 BBs against righties and 1 K to 1 BB against lefties. All of this is very short-season related but he hasn’t shown much sign of it slowing down to-date. I would say Cautiously Optimistic.
Thank you Bellman. All interesting, would
Love to see it long term. It would go a long way for this organizations depth or even tradable pieces
.432 BABIP, so he’s had some good luck. LD% of 19.5% is exactly what he had in 2019. Big difference is 25% of his fly balls this year have gone over the wall, compared to 10% in 2019. I don’t have his batted ball data, so MAYBE he is hitting the ball harder . . .
Good post WCP. A 25% HR/FB rate is unsustainable. To put that number in perspective, Mike Trout’s rate is 21%.
Can someone make the argument that Girardi is a better manager than Kapler is? I would love to hear the logic.
Hinkie and I took a lot of heat on this board for advocating keeping Kapler as the manager. Seems to me like Francona 2.0.
Me too….a marginally unrelated conjecture but Kapler is possibly much more of a San Francisco style personality than a Philly one, assuming that towns have teams molded in their own personality image.
Kapler….it would be wise to check his starting eight……how many past all-star team players in that group …..check their career WARs totaled…..all vets……add Gausman, Cueto and Wood….he better have a winning team with that lineup….oldest team in the majors…. and they have remained healthy for the most part up until now.
….rocco could have a winning team with that lineup, they are all incidentally, about rocco’s age. 🙂
The great Bruce Bochy went
with that same lineup (mostly).
Romus … It’s OK to prefer Joe over Gabe. Girardi won a WS with the NYYs (BTW … those Yankee rosters were better than the SFG lineup you are discrediting Kapler for).
In a nutshell, the majority of people didn’t like/even hated Gabe mostly because of the way he spoke (ridiculous). That’s the truth of the matter. John Middleton is a people pleaser (fan pleaser). He wrongfully made Kapler pay for the real culprits: Klentak and MacPhail.
Having said all that … I’m fine with Girardi as Phillies manager (even though he has made plenty of questionable moves. At the same time, I’m happy for Kapler’s success with the Giants in a much tougher division.
Hinkie….bottom line….wish Gabe well, but Posey is probably running that team.
That’s the problem right there. Gabe gets all the blame for the losses, and none of the credit for the wins. Make sure if/when the Giants come back down to earth, you point your finger at Buster Posey. LOL!
Hinkie…last season they wee an under .500 team in that shortened season…without Buster.
This year they are doing great with Buster…..he is on pace for a 6/7WAR season and MVP candidate….30 games 1.6bWAR.
I am sure Gabe will get consideration for manager of the year awards…and he is the responsible head of the team…so he deserves that..
I really didn’t want either as manager. I preferred Buck but thought Girardi was a good second choice.
Incidentally often times managers don’t become their best until they are fired. I’ve no qualms about not wanting Kapler here and besides managers don’t really manage in certain places the GMs do.
So Farhan is likely the far better manager than Klentak
The mistake by Middleton was not firing the two simultaneously.
Well, I didn’t care for Kapler one bit. I didn’t care for his in game strategies, his ridiculous attempts to protect his players, his use of the bullpen, his oft times use of the roster so that there was no one left in extra innings, and last but, certainly not least his post-game comments (given in a condescending way by the most intelligent person in the world).
Girardi, I am not really impressed with him so far. I think his reputation has been embellished by his AL experience with a Yankee team that had all or most of the pieces to succeed and an owner who wasn’t afraid to take on the luxury tax. A DH in place and no need to employ double switch strategy. His time with the Marlins even though he won 2006 Manager of the Year wasn’t all that spectacular and he was almost fired for butting heads with the owner. Not that the owner was right.
I’m sure there’s an argument, but a good one? I don’t see it. I was on the keep Kapler train as well.
From the big picture perspective both managers had teams in the playoff chase and faded during the last segment of their seasons. Kapler did it both years with the Phillies and last year with the Giants. Girardi’s Phillies faded last year. Kapler has a team out fast again this year in a brutally tough division and Girardi has a team in contention in weaker division that plays inconsistent baseball to date. Although I never gave you heat on this board and defended Kapler one time here It is a toss up to me right now. I do admit though that when the Phillies moved on from Kapler I was supportive.
I want to say something about the “haters.”
From my POV, there is a massive difference between critically challenging a prospect’s ability to be an above replacement level MLB player, and attacking the kid as a person. And we should never conflate the two.
On another thread, Matt Moniak said that “a PHILLIES fan in left-center calling him the biggest pile of sh*t in the history of baseball.” That is completely out of line behavior. Abhorrent. No place for that in society. I would stand right next to anyone against that type of behavior.
However, questioning a prospect’s ability to be a productive hitter against the kind of stuff in the Show right now does not make one a hater (not Jim’s point, but wanted to clarify for others). The gap between AAA pitching and MLB pitching is by far the widest gap in any level jump. The stuff the pitchers have right now is better than at any point in MLB history. Imo the biggest leap in all of baseball is the difference between the stuff in AAA vs the stuff in MLB. Also, the defense in the Show is materially better than at AAA. The hitting at MLB level is also leaps better than at AAA. I have been posting on this blog for a long time and I have never attacked a player as a person. Never. I am sure that they are all good humans. But being a Fan doesn’t have to mean that you can’t critique a prospect’s ability to make the MASSIVE leap between AAA and MLB.
My analysis of prospects was shaped by the “Baby Aces.” The best of whom turned out to be Trevor May as a middle reliever. As a fan, I bought into the hype. And was so disappointed in the outcome that I decided to dig in and look for patterns of why prospects fail to make that leap. From my POV, the minor leagues is simply a testing lab. It exposes a player’s weaknesses. Whatever those weaknesses are, will be exploited by MLB players. Success in the minors does not guarantee success in the majors (eg Dom Brown), but lack of success in the minors across a large sample size, is highly likely to predict not making the leap. For example, it is rare to find a player whose strikeout rate goes down in the MLB from his minors level. Similar story in reverse for walk rate. Usually, if you don’t walk a lot in the minors, it won’t happen against elite pitchers. Contact rate, same story. If you can’t continually square up AAA pitching, you have no shot against MLB stuff.
Power does improve with age, but unless a player goes on the juice, it is the rare story where a player goes from 30 power to 50+ power.
If you understand the math behind some of the advanced analytics, it becomes very clear what the recipe for success is. My checklist goes like this:
– Check batting average and then check babip. If babip is out of whack, then ignore batting average (whether it is good or bad).
– Check BB rates. Players who don’t walk a lot (10%+) against low level pitching typically have an “approach” issue at the MLB level. Not a prospect killer, but a red flag to watch.
– Check K rates. High K rate against lower level pitching is a red flag. Again, Not a prospect killer, if…the player has 50+ power.
– Check power stats.
– Check handedness splits. If a player can’t hit same handed pitchers in the minors then no shot in the Show.
– Check home road splits.
– Check pull tendencies.
– Check improvement at levels. Ok to have an adjustment period but need to show an ability to make the adjustment.
– Then, don’t trust anything you see in the stats and read scouting reports from professionals who get paid to analyze players. They are not perfect but rarely wrong. And if they are wrong, it is usually a false positive. Meaning, they think a player will be good and he isn’t. They are almost never wrong when saying a player won’t be good and then he turns out to be really good. It happens. But rare. For all the Keith Law hates the Phillies comments, it is hard to point out where he was wrong.
Anyways, I just wanted to get this off my chest. I don’t hate any player. I am a huge Phillies fan. I want all of these kids to be stars for the Phillies. But I have been hardened by years of watching failed prospects into a very critical thinker. I hope my comments provide a valuable perspective. I recognize that I am just a fan. Not a professional. So don’t take anything that I say too seriously. Opinions are like ***holes, you know how the rest goes.
v1…very good explanation on how you see a players development and possible future outcome….and how you actually see a player…as a person and ballplayer.
Of your nine points…btw, agree with them….and would like to add just one more in my take….age/level.
In most instances younger players competing against more older and experienced players, they must be given some benefit of doubt on some of their peripheral metrics.
And on the other hand…..older players competing against younger players….results must be taken with a grain of salt….for example remembering Darin Ruf’s time at Reading.
Yes. Agreed on age/level. Very important point that I forgot to mention.
v1 … you are definitely a sharp guy. We all respect, and look forward to your opinions/posts. I think you’ve explained your thought process perfectly.
Also agree with Romus (another really sharp dude). You can’t discount age vs level. The Phillies, under Klentak, had really been aggressively pushing some of their younger prospects. Matt Gelb did an extensive piece on it a couple of years ago.
Anyway … I think it’s fair to be a little more patient with a kid like Mickey Moniak and Luis Garcia (and some others).
Lastly … we should all be grateful for parents like Matt Moniak and Mr. Howard who contribute to these threads from time to time. I’ve learned an awful lot about their sons as players, and more importantly as human beings.
Interesting Matt Gelb questions whether or not, as they use to reference it, ‘force-feeding’ youngsters is the correct way in development.
Of course the players will not disagree who are being pushed up…that is what they want..to be challenged.
But does it more harm than good?
Not sure any studies have ever been done on that..
Hinkie……BP did a study about a decade ago on promoting prospects…..and it seems, every club has their own agenda and philosophy for promotions.
Some will nurture a prospect for a longer period..be it pitchers or positon players, like catchers=for obvious reasons, while others seem to elevate them fairly quick thru their systems.
I understand the age differential, but at some point you have to perform. As I have said, this is professional baseball, even at the lowest levels. The hitter can’t pick the pitcher he wants to hit against otherwise everybody would pick a 19 year old kid topping out at 89.
So if the only good thing people have to say about a player is that he is “young for the league” or “he is bigger than last year” then they aren’t really saying anything at all.
Agreed. When a player makes his MLB debut, he is always “young for the level”. Any veteran pitcher is going to be much older than him. Bottom line, you can either square up a ball or not.
I didn’t see any of the negative posts about Howard and I didn’t get to see him pitch as I was out enjoying time by the pool.
But by the time I did turn the game on it was late and I heard some of TMacs comments on the outing.
I really feel bad for the young man. I’ve thought though for awhile that his shoulder was going to be a tough mountain to climb. The evidence was before our eyes in his IP totals from the time we got him.
Again don’t listen so much to what they tell you rather watch what they actually do. Conversely no harm in having a ton of patience with Spencer.
V1, on the Kapler/Girardi issue. I won’t attempt to argue that Girardi has done a masterful job so far. He has had less than a stellar season. I didn’t like Kapler, as a Manager, and Girardi not Managing as well as I hoped doesn’t change the fact that Kapler deserved to be let go. Francona deserved to lose his job here, also, and regardless of his success in Cleveland and Boston, he wouldn’t have had that success here. Did he pay the price for a failed farm system? Maybe, and maybe Kapler did also. But I couldn’t continue to listen to the New Age, “the player presented well” stuff that was a Kapler constant after the team played a poor game. We would be worse with him here, instead of Girardi, and I wish him well in SF. Hinkie, was the fault much more on MacPhail and Klentak? No question. All 3 should have been shown the door when Kapler left. That’s on Middleton.
So you didn’t like his personality . . . You didn’t point out anything about his actual managing. I mean not for nothing but Joe G is saying some of the same things just in different words. Kapler did more will less, period. I didn’t even think it could be argued differently.
That was the core issue. People didn’t like Kapler on a personal level. It really had nothing to do with how he managed.
I went back and read the stuff posted on Howard, I thought we were very objective and never attacked him personally, nor did anyone cussed at him.
I think like V1 mentioned we are just analyzing what we saw.
Regarding the Phils IDK, I’m hoping this is our usual meltdown alas I know it could get worse.
glan52….it was Mickey Moniak, that was the subject matter of the discussion.
Not Spender Howard.
I think Jim was referring to Spencer.
Skeet you have to excuse Romus, He is on a new medicine for old age, He does confuse a lot of people now, He wants called V1,
Girardi vs Kapler . . . doesn’t really matter, in my opinion.
Lineup construction . . . doesn’t really matter, in my opinion.
Odubel not starting the season in centerfield . . . doesn’t really matter, in my opinion.
Oh, I get how each of those things could add an extra win, and I understand that might matter in making the playoffs. Which is important to show some progress.
But until the Phillies fix their drafting/player development, those things just seem like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Think of this: in 2022 and/or 2023, looking at position players, where will the Phillies be significantly BETTER? Every starter but Bohm is at least 28, and is unlikely to improve — some might, but just as many will decline. That doesn’t mean that, for example, Harper and Realmuto won’t be really good, but where does the improvement come from? (and, to be clear, this is a team with a negative run differential, improvement is needed!!) So . . . Bohm might get significantly better . . . OK, that’s one spot . . . Can Moniak or Haseley play LF and be an upgrade from Cutch? Can Stott come and play SS at a higher level than Didi? (I’m not bought in yet on Maton’s 33% K rate and 3% BB rate). Maybe Vierling?
The new Driveline development approach needs some time, but at the moment it’s hard to identify difference-makers amongst our prospects — and by that I mean someone who will put up 3+ WAR . . . If that is not fixed, we’re just treading water . . . spending $200 Million to be a .500 team
You make a good point…imo the only prospects that are interesting are the ones with a shot to be a 3+ WAR player. If it was my son, I would be ecstatic if he got a cup of coffee in the show or had 300 PAs with a .310 OB%. So cool. But as a fan, really the only prospects that are important to a team are the ones with a shot to be above replacement level. And that is very hard to do. Very hard.
Just to add, the Phils are currently 10th out of the 15 teams in the league in run differential. Not good.
Excellent post West Coast. I’ve been trying say this for 6 months but not as effectively.
Doesn’t matter who’s at fault either. All that matters is that someone in the org better realize this and start to make changes, tough changes to fix it and allow for sustainable success in years to come.
You are basically saying exactly what I said or tried to say in the last discussion. We aren’t far off of where other teams on in terms of record in the division but are light years behind them in other categories. As I asked, what is bright about the future of this team? Please someone point something out because all I see is .500 baseball AT BEST for the next several years. Signing Harper is going to end up being a waste (on field).
I was never a Kapler fan and didn’t want him hired as I wanted someone with experience and he did not have much as a manager at any level. I didn’t care for his “ray of sunshine” when I would watch the game and see how badly said player played. But if they were winning I would have overlooked it. Joe G, I was on board with the hire. I don’t have too many issues with him, it’s the team on the field. The defense is so poor, the offense so frustrating much of the time. The pen so inconsistent. The 4-5 SP’s have been a major disappointment, that’s not on Joe.
This team has some kind of rotten luck though when trading or signing arms for the pen. Guys that were doing great either the season before and we got them in the off-season or were having a great season and once they came here it went downhill quickly. Roberston, Phelps, now Bradley who is so far looking like he belongs in that group. If these guys came here and pitched like they did with their former team things would certainly look at least a little better.
They can be a tough team to watch but like Joe G said, just catch the ball. You got to just catch the ball. I felt his frustration.
I’m sure most of you read this article on NBC Sports in the conversation with Dombrowski. A few things stuck out to me. It’s pretty clear Dombrowski knew coming in that this team wasn’t ready to compete even after additions he made. He likes the core of the 3 pitchers and Harper/JT, but I don’t think anyone else is a lock to be on this roster next year. I think he’s surprised the defense is as bad as it is, but knew it was going to be a detriment to the team. The biggest takeaway for me is that he says there isn’t a short-term fix to the empty cupboard that is the minor leagues. If they fall out of it, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of people traded, including Segura, Didi, Bradley, Neris, Velasquez, Alvarado, Miller, you name it. Even if they don’t fall out of it but consistently play non-playoff-caliber baseball, I think you could see DD try to trade away some vets anyway to try to make for a more productive farm system. If anything that gives him more room to maneuver next year after he’s had a full offseason to get his fingerprints on roster construction.
I’m sort of hoping there are some rebuilding trades. The core is very good, although maybe not great. Now they need to get more winning players in the system.
Also, the only thing no one can figure out–fans and management included, it seems–is how a team that traditionally walks a lot and strikes out an average amount somehow went to walking almost never and striking out all the time. Concerning.
I’m also curious what other’s thoughts are on whether Herrera will be the starting CF here next year… are the options for 2022-23 too rich (11.5 and 12.5, respectively). Could they try to renegotiate with him if he’s still not appealing to other clubs because of his alleged criminal history?
“…..thoughts are on whether Herrera….”
The club, if they do not pick up his option, he becomes a free agent, and they can still offer him a new contract, think, after the Quiet Period…(the five days after the last game of the World Series)
The 2017-2021 CBA ….https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf
…….has a more definitive explanation.in section ARTICLE XIX—Assignment of Player Contracts
That article is depressing but hard to argue. At least we have an executive who is honest about where we really are.
It’s not a Girardi vs Kapler thing. It’s a no young difference making talent thing. There’s a reason why our one dominant era had home grown Rollins, Howard,Utley, Hamels, Myers, Madson etc and rule 5 Vic and Werth. Ed Wade had a big hand in turning us and Astros around. The Phillies failures start in what this site is all about and no manager can fix that: drafting, development and the minors.
I can’t argue with you Garett, or you, the 65th, but my question is this: I have seen Dombrowski trade prospects for Major League ready players, but I have not seen the reverse. As we know well in Philly, being good at one does not, in any way, mean a GM is good at the other. It may, very well, be the prudent course of action, trading Vets for prospects, nut I don’t know that is why DD was brought here.
@matt13 you’re right that that is the primary assessment of DD’s track record. I don’t pretend to know his complete history as a GM, but if a responsible GM looks at this team and recognizes that it can’t win as constructed and won’t win until more major league ready talent is added to the roster either as contributors or potential trade chips to add to a team that is already improved from some internal development and free agency signings, then that’s what he needs to recognize and do. Whether he’ll be any good at it remains to be seen I guess, but at least so far a few of the trades he made to acquire youngish talent for not much prospect capital (Coonrod and Alvarado) seem to have gone well.
I agree he was probably brought in to win now and acquire talent at the deadline, but it may not be what’s best for the org and as President of Baseball Ops he has to be able to make Middleton see that. We can’t trade away what little we have to miss the playoffs then have our hands tied for the next 5-6 years again. I’d just give up at that point!
I think any criticism of Spencer is warranted, he struggled with the velocity dips last year and that was a big reason for his lack of MLB success. If he holds the velocity in his next start and pitches well then he will have earned some praise and trust. We’ll see how he does. I think any personal attacks are unfair and unnecessary but I think it’s pretty natural to question whether he’s conditioning himself properly to handle a starter’s workload given his struggles thus far.
I’m not ready to write him off I think he has a bright future ahead. My worry is there is some type of issue where he is tiring himself out early in games and compensating for that later in his outings which leads to a shoulder issue. Hope this outing was just a blip and he comes out firing in Miami.
Bryce not in the lineup for a second straight day. I think it’s safe to speculate that there is an injury issue as most of us probably feared watching him post-shoulder issue. The foul up with not putting JT on the IL sooner looms larger now as both guys could be out together for longer than was necessary.
Bryce has not been the same since the pitch to the face from Cardinals reliever Génesis Cabrera…97 mph…..since May 2—BA .192….11 for 57.
I don’t think getting hit in the face has hurt him as much as that wrist injury. He should’ve been IL’ed immediately when that became an issue and I remember him reaggravating it against the Mets since I was at that game (unfortunately).
The real problem with how thin we are (and short sighted the roster management) is this is a 162 game sprint. We already saw nagging injuries come back with JT and Didi. If they were nipped in the bud immediately they would probably be playing right now. Just get guys healthy. Especially with Quinn coming back just put Bryce on the IL and get him right.
Yeah…forgot about the wrist issue also.
I would look to DFA Quinn…..and add Randolph.
Then resign Quinn for LHV, if no team picks him up.
Have to think also Haseley should be good to go in a few weeks.
Assume he is at wrapping up at the Complex then maybe a stint at LHV to see some game action.
I like that plan on Quinn, very good planning, that medicine that Rocco told me about must be kicking in. Hang with the meds for a few more weeks and I might have a job with you in the State Department. Marlins Mastery interrupted tonight, by the way love blackened salmon!👍
Two of the Phillies hotter hitters in the minors…Randolph and Williams….must be some sort of an anomaly.
Who would have ever though what they are doing now.
Quinn is not passing through waivers. He’s going to get claimed.
Good, that’s ok with me. We can pick a .136 hitter who k’s 36% of the time, can’t bunt and spends most his time on the IL off the waiver wire or the released heap. Maybe someone will give us something for him or we can include him for something of value as a throw in.
Yeah Quinn may get claimed….but that means the claiming team has to open a 40 spot for him….not sure I can see any current contending team doing that, unless they have a few of their original 26 roster OFers out on IL.
Anyway…I want to see some new hungry blood….guys like Randolph and Williams…who have seen their share of minor league struggles, may just put out the greater effort to remain in the majors
@Skeet, teams won’t be claiming Quinn because he’s starter level. They will claim him because of his defense and base stealing ability (for late game maneuvering).
@Romus, young blood is fine but they’re going to be bench players. They won’t play enough to make an impact unless somebody gets hurt.
It took Stanton quite a few seasons after he was hit in the face to get comfortable in the box again. A season or two later is when he came up with that exaggerated stance where he is turned closed up so to speak rather than open stanced
He said open stance facing a pitcher is so difficult to get out of the way of 95+ at your head. Closed off his natural reaction is to turn back offering his shoulder back or back of the helmet.
I think they should give Luke a shot at a bench job, think he has earned it.
Romus, 7th inning, palm reader was dreadfully wrong! She said she looked at the schedule wrong. I’m not going there again, should have consulted with Rocco first. So sorry, I thought the curse was over!
A) Phillies offense
B) Phillies defense
C) Brandon Kintzler
V1 and Skeet – I think you are selling a guy who has given up 4 HRs in 15 IP and sports an 8.22 ERA, a little short.
I’ll go C+
No. I agree Kintzler isn’t good. But he only has pitched 15 innings. Our bad defense has been for all 9 innings of all 48 games.
I’ll take B, which is worse because its not easy to fix, you can cut Kintzler and get better production from let’s say EDLS, he can’t be worse?, can he? oh boy.
This is hard to watch. No Bryce, no Didi, no JT, Bohm not hitting, Cutch has went cold. That leaves 3 guys out of the 8 that are hitting (Segura, Odubel, Rhys). Can’t win games like this. Definitely can’t win with errors.
Knapp is reverting back to the poor hitter that he is. His K rate is in the stratosphere and he doesn’t walk. I know there may be bigger issues than the backup catcher but with JT being hurt so much this year Knapp has become more than just a play once a week/give JT a rest guy and he has failed. He is a vet not some wet behind the ears kid.
At this point, the Phillies can’t do anything about it. Knapp just has to play better. At the minimum, Marchan is playing Thursday afternoon. Maybe Marchan plays tomorrow?
If the Phillies are trying to win games, then Alec Bohm needs to start losing playing time to Brad Miller. Girardi should tell Bohm right now that he’s in a platoon with Miller at 3B. The Phillies can’t afford to wait for Bohm to correct himself. And after seeing his ABs today, he’s not close to hitting well.
Bohm should have been wearing a face mask from day one. He has clearly caught it. He is displaying all the symptoms of Kingeritis-19. He needs to be quarantined.
Once Quinn comes back, in the later innings, I would move Quinn to CF and move Herrera to LF and take Cutch out of the game.
Agreed. McCutchen is an absolute mess is LF. He needs to hit more than .210 to make up for the amount of ground he doesn’t cover, and for his negative arm.
Watching this team in the field is brutal.
Pennsylvania is known as the Keystone state…..Phillies are playing like the Keystone police force
Dear Soul of the Site, Do you ever in your 79 yrs watching Baseball, do you remember a Phillies Team, that fields this bad? I dont ever remember us having bad fielding shortstops
rocco…not just shortstop, the whole friggin team except for JTR …when he is catching.
The 2015 Cleveland Indians were one of the worst fielding teams in MLB history…also the 1930 Phillies…..but this team also reminds of the Mets first season team…over 200 errors for that 1962 team.
Post WW II : 1945 Philadelphia (NL), 234 or 1946 Washington (AL), 211.
Last time a team had 200 or errors was the 1963 NY Mets with 208…..and just not the errors…but the mental mistakes also.
I envy bandwagon fans….they have no emotional stake in a team’s fortunes….when the going is good jump right on….when it is going bad, move right off to something else.
I would like to offer a response to Jim regarding Spencer Howard, and his velocity issues. I think if his velocity dip in his most recent start was a first time occurrence, I think fans might be more accepting of his explanation. However, with his previous shoulder issues and resulting drop in velocity, fans will always assume he is hurt, or experiencing some type of mechanical issue. We can only go by the recent history. Twice in the last two years Howard has been shut down with a shoulder problem, and until he can make it through a season healthy, we, as Phillies fans, will always assume the worst.
Wawaton, I think the velocity dip happened last year as well.
We have always had excellent fielding SSs. I go back to Wine and Amaro, Sr. Great defensive SSs. Couldn’t hit much, but terrific in the field. And, SS is far from our worst spot. That was a medium FB to Cutch. A decent, not great, not “oh what a rifle he has” throw, just a decent throw, and the runner is out. What that lane effort was, I don’t know. More fundamentals. Rhys is one of our top hitters, right. Typical, 1st and 3rd, 1 out, get the run home in the first inning to start strong. It was a strike, but high in the strike zone, and on the outside of the zone. Exactly what should be hit the other way. He’s Rhys Hoskins, with certainly the ability to hit it out to RF, but job #1, get the run home. He takes that high and outer zone pitch and pulls a grounder to the 3B, exactly what he should not have done. That was all in his approach to the AB. An approach that is, fundamentally, wrong. Double play, no runs scored. And, typical of our consistent failure to adjust during an AB. I know hitting a Baseball is hard, but it is more difficult when your fundamentals are screwed up. 2 Veteran players, not kids, Rhys is no longer a kid. 2 bad plays, 1 run not scored, another run for the other team. I don’t need Joe Girardi explaining after that he wasn’t sure what that throw was from McCutchen. “Maybe he didn’t get his feet under him?” He’s Andrew McCutchen, he knows how to throw Baseball. He just did a poor job of it. Awful game!
It’s always sad and ugly when guys like McCutchen come to the end of their better playing days.
Maybe sparing him the misery of the rest of this season is best. A possible platoon of Randolph/Williams for the rest of the season. Could either of them appear any more over matched than Bohm right now?
I mean it seems to me they feel the team is best served by having Bohm stay up and play as awful as he has both defensively and offensively. And it pains me to say that because I would have put all my chips on Bohm as the next home grown star.
And maybe he will be but man you gotta send the kid down for a week or two to get his head right. Those short season success stories can get a young player a little full of themselves a little to “this game is easy”
Cutch is a great person but he’s at the end of the road in his playing career. And unfortunately, the Phillies are stuck with him. He’ll lose some playing time here and there, but I don’t think the Phillies will bench Cutch until September. He would really have to go into the tank in order to lose LF.
As for Bohm, it was an aggressive promotion by Phillies standards (only 2 years in the minors), and now he looks like a mess. Not sure what to do now. Historically, the Phillies don’t like demoting players but since Bohm essentially skipped AAA, they might have to. He’s already -1.6 WAR! I believe the record for worst WAR in a season is -4. And crazy enough, Bohm could surpass that. That’s how bad he’s been.
The team need to be flexible.
Brad Miller can freaking hit. He has always hit for the Phillies and he needs to play almost every day. Fortunately, although he’s not a great fielder, he can play a number of positions.
One quick fix is that he should start playing more left field. If you look at McCutchen’s numbers, he currently has an extreme platoon split. He’s raking against LH pitching and should get all of those at bats and a few against righties, but Miller should take most of the ABs in left against righties for now. Miller can also take ABs against righties at third, and give Bohm a break. He can also give Hoskins a break at first when he needs a day off. In short, we can move Miller around to mask some of the other hitting issues on the team.
I mentioned previously that Miller should platoon with Bohm.
If there are 6 games in a given week, then Miler should be starting 4-5, and then PH/rest the other games. Cutch loses 1-2 games, Bohm loses 2-3 games, I don’t have a problem with that.
I just think Bohm needs some time to clear his head. I don’t want to platoon him I want him hitting everyday righties and lefties.
The defense was always average but I think now his slump is starting to creep into his defense. Its all coming unglued for him at the moment lol.
But if sending him down for just a week or two isn’t an option then I play him everyday and hope he is mentally tough enough to withstand it.
Maybe I’m crazy, but Alec Bohm is probably the least of my worries. I’m convinced he’s simply going thru a sophomore slump and also quite a bit of bad luck. Yes, his K-rate is up, and his BB-rate is down, but he’s hitting the ball just as hard/even harder than he did last season. Those hard hit balls are just finding defenders.
Defensively, I still believe he’ll be fine/at least avg. He needs to stop thinking too much, and put previous bad plays behind him. I’m confident he’s got the physical tools to handle 3B. IMO, it’s more mental.
Hinkie…agree with what you say offensively for Bohm…a soph slump, happens to many. He just needs to adjust.
However, defensively…..do not think he has the overall physical talent to be even an average defender at third.
Why waste valuable time trying to perfect yourself at a defensive position….when he can just take a little more time and play LF.
Guys like Braun and Burrell…3B in college guys…had to make the switch and did it.
Senzel is another…and he was rated higher than Bohm defensively when he was at Tennessee.
Segura can handle 3B for his last year next season…then maybe Stott can pick it up down the road.
For me, Segura: 1. isn’t happy at 3B and 2. is less capable of handling the position than Bohm.
I don’t think the organization currently has a better option for 3B. Now … if DD wants to go crazy and sign Trevor Story this winter, It would make sense to go: Hoskins DH, Bohm 1B, Story 3B.
If DD signs Story or Correia or any other big name FA, then the Phillies will definitely won’t be able to re-sign Eflin. Unless VV gives the Phillies a hometown discount, they won’t be able to sign him either.
I’m not predicting the Phillies will sign Story, but I do think they’ll likely be involved in the bidding. The Rangers are probably the early favorite for the Rockies SS/3Bman.
There isn’t much immediate help coming from the Phils’ farm, and because the system is so thin, DD may have a difficult time outbidding other clubs for top trade targets. He and Middleton are probably going to have to continue to use free agency as a means of trying to improve this team (while they rebuild their farm).
This upcoming FA market will likely move at a snail’s pace because no player on the market is going to sign until the owners and union hammer out a new CBA. The new agreement will likely raise the luxury tax threshold a decent amount. It could also lessen the penalties for exceeding the threshold, or even do away with cap altogether (though not likely). Pretty certain they’ll re-sign Zeflin before team control runs out after next season. VV will likely make it to free agency.
@Hinkie, it takes 2 to tango and Eflin is on his way to a 4 WAR season. I think Eflin will be getting at least $7M in arbitration. So offer him something like 4 years. $55-60M and see if he’ll take it. Otherwise, he’s getting the QO after next season.
VV could get interesting. If he pitches really well, he’s going to get some decent offers. Even the poor teams would be willing to give VV something like 3 years, $36M.
Guru … agree that Eflin gets 7M-7.5M in arbitration this winter unless he signs a LTX. Your figures (4 yrs @ 55M-60M) seem right to me. Could even see 4 yrs @ 64M. Nola took 4 yrs @44M w/16M team option. Nola had an 8 WAR season under his belt, but that was signed three years ago. Eflin gets a bump because of inflation and the fact he’d be signing one year closer to FA than Nola . Nola took a deal after arb 1. Zeflin has gone thru arb 2.
i dont think Senzel was moved because of defense, he was moved because they had Suarez- was thinking about if the Phils had picked Senzel instead of Moniak- the guy has talent but is equal to Roman Quinn on the fragility index- he’d be driving Phils fans nuts.
There’s more of a book on him now, so he’s losing hits to the shift. He has made some measure of solid contact and most of it has been to right field. I think I can count on one hand how many times he’s aggressively ripped a ball to LF this past week. The issue for me is he’s waiting so long to determine what pitch it is that he’s almost late on everything, especially fastballs. He needs to grip it and rip it, like Jean or Odubel.
Agree, the shift is eating up the base hits to right he had before. Needs to develop some pull to even things out and make the defense play him straight up.
I get the hitting into hard luck but the crazy increase in K rate is super alarming. And to my eye its not even that he is chasing sliders out of the zone. He tends to spit on those.
His K’s are coming from FBs high and just a little bit up and away or hard and inside.
Pretty good take on how I’ve been feeling about the game lately
DMAR……….Great piece, thanks for posting!
When guys that played the game at a very high level as Troy did before injuries decimated his career I tend to listen.
And there are others playing now (Lindor) saying it.
“…. new sophisticated, high-tech job titles. They have a director of offensive creation and run prevention. Quality insurance coaches. There are computer science analysts being hired ….”…..all positions in baseball that rocco could fill right now. 🙂
LOL over qualified Romus
This years high school shortstops have been described as generationally great. Four in particular (Lawlar, Mayer, House, Watson)… There may be an opportunity for the Phillies at 13 to grab House or Watson and start the SS rebuild albeit it will take awhile..
The most recent mocks have those 4 SS not making out of the top 10…
The next MLB draft that goes as forecasted will be the first. Teams are still watching finances and these kids asking price may be too much for the 12 teams before us but not to Middleton..
I’m not saying that the mocks are set in stone. What I am saying though is that if you feel that those SS are generational, you better believe other people think it also.
Not sure House will stay small enough to stay at shortstop….probably third or second base will be his final destination
High School Shortstops is where they stick there best players, usually pitch and play short, Dont know about these kids but it most likely isnt there best postion,
The Phillies just put Bryce on the IL, and activated Roman Quinn.
This lineup is just brutal man. Sure, Cutch got replaced by Miller today which helps, but Bohm/Joyce/Knapp have got to start hitting.
So no Didi (likely)/JT/Bryce for the Marlins series?
This quote fits it perfectly:
“What’s that? Ah – Playoffs? Don’t talk about – playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game!”
This team has been hiding the severity of Harper’s injury. Why so secretive? I believe Harper took a minor shoulder injury and made it worse when Joe Girardi put him in that Blue Jays game in Florida after Scott Kingery banged his head. Check out the video below from Friday’s game vs Boston. See the play in the top of the ninth inning (8;16 mark). Harper shies away from the wall, and then immediately (yet briefly) reaches for his left shoulder when he brushes up against it. Remember Harper couldn’t throw the ball after he entered that game in Dunedin. He also only bunted in his first AB. However, he was forced to take major hacks when he found himself up with the tying run on base in the 9th inning of that contest.
Randolph 23/24 YO and Williams 23/24YO both spent time in the Aussi League and Williams was at late site so one cannot be surprised at them being ahead in this post Pandemic. But remember 2015 Draft players are from old regime and when New Boss comes in New Employees .
Take into fact that Randolph spent pre Aussi with old hitting coach’s, ie: Moniak did the same.
Give the kids a shot, NOT DD invested in Sen Players just like BP arms we see explode for $$$$
Howard has history of shoulder issues, history shows us. He has the tools so Develope him, build him. Let’s hope Thursday he puts that behind him so DD can give some kids a chance, like Atlanta!!! Miami, Tampa Bay, Dodgers
Rays……lose number one and two starters from last year, Snell and Morton…., two batters hitting over .270 with their best hitter out of baseball powerhouse college, West Chester Univ., PA………and now top the majors in wins at 30, tied with the Padres.
Yeah that’s why we should have traded Nola. Not that I want to become the Rays and never pay any of our good home grown players but if you know what you’re doing if you have a good scouting dept and applicable analytics a player of Nola’s caliber in theory should return you two more Aaron Nola’s.
We’re so afraid to trade a player like that because yeah he is pretty darn good and we haven’t had pretty darn good come through the farm in some time. I get that.
But having lots of pretty darn good is much better.
Now those that are going to say our FO sux at making trades etc. are just clutching pearls on a sinking ship.
I think DD knows what needs to be done the ? is does anyone there have the stomach for it.
Hard to argue with that reasoning, if Nola keeps trending downward.
But how often does a team ‘win’ sending their best for a gaggle of prospects
Risk are incurred from both sides….dave d. is not one to shy away from a risk IMO.
Here is an older article on it.
Romus Break open your piggy bank. Cole Irvin is pitching at home,
This is the VV we’ve been waiting for since we traded for him. He made the pitches he had to make and shut down the Marlins on the road. Damn, he’s going to get paid.
Vince Velasquez’s best pitching performance since his CBP debut in 2016.
… but IMO his greatest appearance in a Phillies uniform came in 2019.
This is a close second.
The most athletic Phillie I can ever remember.
VV last 5 games: 24.1 IP, 3 ER, 12 H, 11 BB, 27 K.
Always bet on a guy in a walk year.
The 2020 Phillies bullpen would have cost you a lot of money
VV is my favorite story line of the season. Love seeing him finally learn how to pitch. Hope that his breakout is for real.
I want to see if Dave D and the Phillies offer him a 5 yr/$85M plus contract based on his reformation?
Wow, that is a very aggressive offer. I’m pretty sure VV would be all over that deal. But the Phillies can’t pay everybody. If the Phillies give VV that deal, you would expect that Eflin would get something similar. I don’t think the Phillies can afford to give both Elfin and VV that type of deal.
What Vinny Velo is doing is great, and I’m as excited as the next guy about it … but … you gotta’ put his next contract into context. I will be pretty stunned if he gets 5/85M. I mean maybe if he finishes top five for NL Cy Young (and I’m not holding my breath for that) it’s possible.
Last winter, these guys got:
* 29 YO Robbie Ray … 1/8M
* 28 YO Carlos Rodon … 1/3M
* 28 YO Taijuan Walker … 3/23M
* 31 YO Drew Smyly … 1/11M
These aren’t perfect comps, and certainly last winter’s market was depressed because of the COVID season, but 5/85M is still a pretty enormous leap from the deals Ray/Rodon/Walker/Smyly got.
The one thing VV has going for him is Dave Dombrowski. Dombrowski did fork over a 4/68M contract to Nathan Eovaldi before he was fired in Boston.
Guru./ Hinkie….granted that is a very high offer……if Vinny maintains this current production for the next 3 or 4 months, then that may be what he would shoot for.
As for length, I am sure he is looking for at least 4 or 5 years.
The AAV will depend on what he can do over the next 4 months
IMO, his range for an AAV would be anywhere between $12M and $16M, based on his performance over the next 20 or so starts, if he can stay in the rotation..
Phillies can always QO him if they are uncomfortable with a LTC offering and even a hi_AAV
IMO … Vince Velasqez is probably going to end up with short term offers (no more than three years). Best case scenario is a deal similar to the one Tajuan Walker got (3/23M). 1/10M or 2/16M are also options. He’s still got ~20 starts before free agency so those figures are subject to change (up or down).
That doesn’t seem like a Dombrowsky approach. He is very savvy imo
Thursday’s game against the Marlins will be on YouTube.
Seinfeld’s Bizarro World has descended upon the Phillies…Vinny/Doobie…vs Nola/Bohm
VV: 1.3 WAR (4th highest among Phillies pitchers)
Herrera: 0.7 WAR (tied for 4th highest among Phillies hitters)
Nola: 1.4 WAR (third)
Bohm: -1.6 WAR (last)
Wheeler/Eflin/Nola/VV has more total WAR than Bauer/Buehler/Kershaw/Urias.
Dodgers do have the hitters and timely offense that the Phillies seem to be lacking right now
And Nola could fall behind Vinny in WAR, after tonight…..he needs to pick up his game
Oduble isn’t really that big of a surprise. When he had his head screwed on straight he was a hell of a player and he came to ST this year playing like his hair was on fire. All he is doing is playing up to his ability. Not sure what’s going on with Nola, but he may be in the process of making large adjustments to his approach. In the long run, he’s going to be fine and the main question will be, as it has been for a while, whether he is merely going to be very good or develop into an elite pitcher. Either way, he’s far from being one of their problems.
Doobie’s talent was always there…..however, his last three years all pointing in one direction…and it wasn’t going north.
So in his walk year…..he has come around so far.
Nola may be in a one year funk…who knows.
Of his six-month season’s production….he normally has poorer Junes and especially below average Septembers.
I want to see how he does in his next 6 starts or so before the all-star break
Wow! (Keanu Reeves)
Kudos to Vinny for another excellent outing, even getting himself out of a jam. Good BP work, a nice play by Bohm in the field, and a great AB by Rhys, fouling off pitches before he hit that HR to left. Credit where credit is due. A really needed W, now we need Nola to have fixed whatever is wrong with him, and give us a great outing today.
6 Inny Vinny 👍😇
Soul of the Site, This isn’t the Vinny, that we have seen in the past, My Question did someone finally get thru to him on pitching? Maton from the little i have seen isn’t a good shortstop,
Maybe the new pitching coach…maybe the thought of being out there in limbo after November, if he did not come around and do it this season.
I think Maton’s best position is 2B…..but he has the most experience at SS for most of his career.
In 2019, Maton was at AA and not hitting well. 2 years later, he’s in the bigs with .717 OPS. He has come a long way. He has went from borderline prospect to borderline starter. I give him credit for taking advantage of an opportunity (injuries to Didi and Jean).
But as people are seeing, it’s not easy being a bench player. He’s not playing every day, and he needs to be ready to PH at a moment’s notice. It’s something that’s tough to do for a 24 year old with little big league experience.
At this point, no one is really sure what Maton’s ceiling is. Is he starter level? A future utility guy? We won’t know for sure until Didi/Jean are gone.
The whole Harper thing is nonsense. First off and let me not be Girardi’s jock support he is exactly right. In matters of health of a player you don’t tip your hand to the opposing dugout and you certainly don’t owe the fans any kind of truth there much less reporters.
Secondly that’s what happens when you give a player 13 years and $300+ million. They dictate the time and place they go on the DL. He’s likely the de facto player GM Jim was eluding to.
John and Leigh are all about it LOL
I find it hard to criticize how Harper handles himself. He works incredibly hard by all appearances, he hustles at all times, he doesn’t act like a jerk or mouth off to reporters, he appears to treat his teammates well, and he understands the Philadelphia fans and want to play through pain because he knows they come out to see him (he said as much in a quote recently). I understand that he can sometimes carry the playing through pain thing a little too far (to the point where he further injures himself), but it’s hard to find fault with him or how he handles himself on the whole. He was the right guy to sign that winter and I’m glad we did.
I don’t fault Harper and agree with all the positives stated about him. I’m just saying that sometimes players that big to their own detriment or teams detriment have a lot more influence in those types of decisions.
Praise The Lord.
Would you believe me if I told you that I just read a scouting service give a positive review about Cornelius Randolph?
Me either…but what if I showed it to you?
Cornelius Randolph, OF PHI (Triple-A) 1-for-2, 3 BB, SB
I’m starting to get heavy Trent Grisham 2019 vines from Randolph at this point. Not a perfect comp but it’s a former first rounder that seems to be finding his way after a few years of falling off the map completely. There’s a well varied power, speed, or base skillset too.
If somehow Randolph turns into a serviceable player, that would be fantastic. His .447 BABIP gives me pause, as does his LD rate of 19.0% (actually lower than 2018 and 2019), but you never know.
The Phils should consider moving Stott to AA.So far his walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate (although I don’t love a 23.1% strikeout rate at high A), and he’s putting up a 186 wRC+. His walk rate in his career so far (271 PAs) is 16.2%, which is fantastic.
Randolph has said he altered his swing, and is now getting back to what he had. And, I clearly remember the hit tool review when he was drafted. So, maybe he has worked hard to get better, and can be the hitter that was envisioned? What a bonus that would be. I sure hope so! Ditto Micky and/or Haseley. Wouldn’t some good fortune be welcome? Watching Vinny’s past few starts has made me a believer again in everyone.
Mets are hoping Thor comes around next month sometime..
“Noah Syndergaard…. threw 16 pitches with ten of them landing inside the zone. He left the rehab start early with elbow soreness, and looking at the data it registered most of his fastballs as changeups, so that’s likely not a great sign. He did top out at 95″….The Prospects Live Data Sheet
VV recent run of success is why it’s so difficult to give up on a talented arm. seeing same thing with Pivetta in Boston.
As for Randolph, is he another victim of the organizational push to turn players into launch angle, 3 true outcome hitters? Seems to be a real disconnect between what the organization looked for in the draft and what they want to do with player development.
They drafted 3 outfielders with the reputation for being good bat-to-ball, line drive hitters and then went about changing their swings to try to generate more power.
I remember for Haseley, he was asked to try to get more lift back in spring of 2018 as he was assigned to Clearwater.
The Marlins have Marte and Brian Anderson on the IL, and Rojas/Chisholm/Duvall not playing today.
As expected, Miller is taking time from Bohm as he’s playing 3B.
Nola better take advantage tonight.
It’s really not a terrible thing for a young player to sit from time to time to watch and get some perspective. Nobody’s taking Bohm out of a playing rotation. The only unfortunate thing is how shallow the bench is right now because, they are, in essence, taking Bohm out and putting in Quinn – who has been terrible this year (not that Bohm has been great).
Not to jinx him … but … Aaron Nola looks like he’s packing no-hit stuff tonight.
Braves know Pivetta. They are knocking him around early. Two innings 0-2 and 48 pitches.
Gotta hand it to Pivetta. Finished six innings with a hundred pitches and down 4-3.
Unfortunate but a major league guy has to make a routine throw to 2nd for a possible double play. Things came unraveled after that.
A question. Alverardo only threw 9 pitches last night. Why was he not in when Phillies had a chance to win the game. I do not get this being unavailable stuff. When you have a chance to win you must do what you can to achieve that result.
Just my opinion.
Another thing, how many times has the Marlins beat the shift on the SS side?
Watching this offense is brutal.
True. Reason why you have to actually try to win with only 4 outs left. Ridiculous.
Don Mattingly practically gift wrapped that game to the Phillies. He started Nick Neidert, who had a 2.00 WHIP and an ERA near 7.00. He started Magneuris Sierra in CF, Isan Diaz at 2B, Jon Berti at 3B, and Jose Devers at SS. Two of them are hitting below the Mendoza line.
The Phillies refused to accept the win.
No offense. Defense that continually gives the other team four outs. BTW … anyone still think Alec Bohm isn’t their best option at 3B?
Just another terrible loss.
Besides the injuries, Cutch is now in a slump, Bohm and Knapp haven’t hit all year, there’s a growing book on Maton. If Hoskins/Miller/Herrera/Segura don’t hit, the Phillies don’t win. I mean, Quinn got on base 3 times (when was the last time he did that) and the Phillies still lost.
Hinkie – yes, I am in that camp. Miller grades out as a below avg glove (although at 3B the metrics are kinder – closer to league avg. – but not a lot of games there) v. Bohm who is atrocious. Comparing the two at the plate, there is nothing to be said. Personally, I think Bohm needs a good two weeks in LHV.
How many times this season after a game has anyone said, “Yeah, he didn’t do aything at the plate but at least he made up for it in the field”? Give one to Herrara.
What is with Cutch? How is it that a veteran OFer does not know the base to throw to?
So, how many time this season after a game has anyone said, “Yeah, he didn’t do aything at the plate and he hurt us in the field too”? Unfortunately, there are too many of those that I lost count many games ago.
My homage to Andrew Knapp.
Hinkie – of the four, I am trying to decide which one is the worst. I think I have to give it to the guy with the chain saw. He’s lucky he didn’t cut something vital off in the process. The funniest is the one with the dog.
I wonder how many octaves higher is Knapp’s voice these days. I feel for the guy. I git to believe Marchan is in the lineup tomorrow.
Oh, yeah. I love the dog’s victory dance after he sidelines the dude. 😀😂🤣
What keeps my blood pressure from rising too much when I watch Phillies games is I go in with the expectation that they’ll score only 2 or 3 runs and win only with Herculean performances from the pitching staff. Setting the bar low keeps the agita partly in check.
Among the many sad things happening with this team right now is that they might return home from this road trip in last place.
And we still remain the tightest division in all of baseball. As we stand today only 3 games separate top from bottom…
Next closest race is AL West at 7
Phillies now 14-21 vs Marlins in last two and a third years.
IMO, turning point….bases loaded, no outs….Cutch and then one out later Rhys, should have better at bats…….one run forced in, with a gift umpire call on Brad Miller’s walk.
I always thought Pivetta would be a decent pitcher being from Canada he would be a late bloomer. But figured it wouldn’t be here. This town is by far the most abrasive place to play. No shock kids like him Rolen Wentz leave here and move on to success. Maybe but I think for Wentz.
When they started second sports station in Philly thought it be more in vein of wfan up in New York more sports and experts. Nope just another venue to pick apart players anyway possible.
Sometimes I think we will never have successful teams cause certain segment of players want nothing to do with this town.
Radio stations will be defending idiot fans all day on radio about sizers game because that’s their audience
Philly Boston and of course NY all have their share of players they chew up and spit out.
I really don’t know what its like in other cities. I’m sure its very benign on the West Coast and other places in the Mid West.
I really don’t pay it any mind any more. Players should understand a little better the reason they get paid enormous salaries compared to the average working person is because millions upon millions of average working persons invest their time and hard earned cash to be entertained by them.
It’s a trade off they should try not to take too personal. Not easy I know. A human is a human whether paid millions of dollars annually or just a few thousand.
But for many of us if we were that bad at our jobs well you know
They should put a law in to fine and ban idiot fans, But why don’t you talk about big bad LeBron James 6ft 9 and he wants to go after the guy, put his picture on social media, so the guy can get killed, for throwing pop corn, I am so tried of these rich athlete and there social media bull,
Also why dont people talk about fans that got killed in California stadiums, after games by people, I guess that’s okay. cause it California
mwmw271 there have been numerous attacks at dodgers stadium, since 2003 when one guy was stabbed to death, another beaten and in a coma,
Giant fans at Dodger Stadium …..do not mix well with the territorial Dodger fans.
Kind of like male dogs….they mark their spot and another male dog better not come into that territory…or else.
I’m amazed Russell Westbrook was able to calm down enough to have a rationale discussion at the post-game news conference. That S-O-B in the stands is lucky that Westbrook was surrounded by security to restrain him because if they hadn’t been there Westbrook, who is hyper aggressive during games, would have laid the beating of all beatings on that nasty idiot and I wouldn’t have blamed Westbrook one bit, although he would have been severely fined by the league.
Patso – where you referring to Scott Rolen in your post? Rolen wanted out of Philly because he did not want to play for Bowa. He took less money to play for the Cardinals. Can you imagine an infield of Howard, Utley, Rolen, and Rollins?
There is certainly a long history of abusive and racist fans. Nothing comes close to what I witnessed as a kid at Connie Mack stadium when so-called fans would throw batteries, nuts and bolts, and more at Dick Allen who began wearing a batting helmet while shagging fly balls in OF before games. I’m not sure which is worse, that or how the Phillies treated Jackie Robinson, which was well before my time.
Boston aint an easy place either, but he doesnt have a history there. VV seems to have been able to deal with everything this city can throw at him, plus a brain that works too hard on the day he starts.
Romus, I agree with you. Facing a Pitcher with a rough season, so far, and let him off the hook. The ABs just are not good enough, and don’t reflect situational Baseball, at all. We knew the team D was bad, although I could never have imagined it to be as bad as we have played, so the O has to carry the team. We can’t continually waste opportunities to score runs with runners on like we do. We are the worst Defensive team in the Majors, and I think the next worst one is still far better than us. It is just brutal. I don’t even know how to begin to fix it.
Well I think the time has come to shake things up Matt. Something is not working in that clubhouse and we’ll never know what it is but DD should know and should move soon to fix it.
Stupid is as Stupid does; The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results and on and on with those types of cliches
or we can simply lean on when JT Bryce and DD come back things will be fine lol
Otta guys relish this atmosphere but appears that some definitely don’t. Boston tough but they love baseball up there. Red Sox more beloved than Patriots. No offense to Philadelphia but Boston may be nicest city in US. Was up there to watch son team play Northeastern. Stadium packed for college DH. A real baseball town.
I too enjoy Boston, love spending time there, going back in September,
Jayson Stark today, we are -29 Defensive Runs Saved, worst in the League. Cubs are next worst at -1! And, aside from JTR, we have seen poor defensive play throughout the team. Even Bryce, who has been pretty good for us defensively, had a couple of poor games, although I think that was injury related. I think it would take something like the ’27 Yankees to overcome Defense that bad.
There’s really only 3 guys with positive dWar: Herrera, Segura, Quinn (because he threw out a bunch of guys). JT/Maton are about average. The issue is that we have Harper, Hoskins, Didi, Bohm are one of the worst in the league.
And Cutch has come up below average defensively in LF.
JT Realmuto is not an average catcher defensively or offensively.
Posey IMO was best all around catcher. Yadier best defensive catcher. JT is really good but I don’t think he’s better than Posey was in his prime or defensively better than Yadier was in his.
The bar is pretty low for catchers. Most teams are just looking for solid catch and throw guys with good pitch framing ability.
Trivia: Who were the last 3 catchers to win an MVP?
DMAR. Good post.
I am rooting hard for Posey to regain his form and play another few years because I think he’s one of the best players I’ve ever seen at any position and incredibly poised and clutch – he just hasn’t put up enough counting statistics yet to be inducted into the HOF, but yeah, he’s a better player than Realmuto (although, it’s hard to know whether we’ve seen Realmuto’s best yet as he has continually improved – still I don’t see him ever surpassing Posey at his peak).
Last 3 catcher MVPs, I think, would be 1. Posey; 2. Mauer; 3. Pudge? (if not Pudge, then Bench?).
Matt – Stark’s numbers do not jibe with FanGraphs, which has the Phillies tied with the A’s for last at (-32), next are the Angels at (-30) and the Tigers at (-24).
Here we go again. Howard was cruising for 4 innings and then ran out of gas. He was sitting 93-94, hitting 95 a few times. He had a good changeup and curveball, but they were both inconsistent at times. In the 5th, his control went out the window.
So what’s next? He’ll get another start and we’ll see happens.
But let’s get it out the way first, Howard is not an ace. At this point, he’s probably a 3, which is still pretty good. It’s interesting to note how Eflin/VV/Howard all hover in the 93-95 fastball range.
Looks like Brooks Baseball decided to remove their velo tracking….seems it is removed or hidden somewhere on their site.Wonder why!
Does it offend anyone knowing a pitcher’s velo!
You are correct, Nola is in that range also.
This game is getting a little like past games…take a small lead….try to rest on it, since team cannot muster up any added runs with poor RISP production, bring in BP……and cross fingers they can hold the lead.
Current Phillies rotation:
Nola 2 (Let’s call him a 2 and stop this thread of whether or not he’s an ace)
This is probably the best rotation the Phillies have had since the 4 aces. This rotation is likely better than the 2008 rotation.
Guru – I’d say the current rotation is definitely better than the 2008 rotation. In 2008 the SP was just okay. Hamels was solid and Moyer had a good year, Blanton was okay in dozen or so starts but after that Myers, Kendrick, Eaton all had an ERA+ below 100. The real strength was their incredible BP. Lidge was perfect, and Durbin, Madson, Condrey, and Romero were all very good. If we got the same performance today as the 2008 BP, the Phillies would likely have 3 to 5 more wins right now.
It would have been nice if Segura could have moved Marchan over. Great job by Suarez. Hope the next two can hold it. Would hate to lose this one.
We are just terrible at picking up those extra runs. Maton on second, of course Segura cannot move him to 3rd, instead grounds out to the 3B. Time after time! A load of ways to score from 3rd without a hit, although a single would have scored two, had Rhys not also grounded out to 3rd. I still believe it is all in the approach to how we hit with runners on.
Alvarado is giving me an ulcer. He’s just so wild it’s crazy.
It’s not just the defense, it’s the game planning. Why are they in such a drastic shift to the RHH Cooper with Alvarado throwing 100? Chances of him pulling the ball are great. He ends up hitting the ball where the 2Bman should have been able to knock it down.
BTW … that 0-2 pitch should have been called a strike (at the top of the zone).
… chances of Cooper pulling the ball *aren’t great.
I type like Alvarado pitches. I get wild when hitting the keys too fast.
Of course, Alvarado has trouble throwing strikes, so the guy who walked scored on a single going the opposite way. I keep hoping we do something better, and keep getting disappointed. It’s my own fault.
Guru – Ulcer gotten. Likely loss if it goes overtime.
Matt – You are right. It’s all your fault. We are blaming this entire fiasco of a season on you.
Oh man, why does it have to be so hard for the Phillies? I can now exhale.
Roman Quinn >>> Andrew McCutchen
Rafael Marchan >>> Andrew Knapp
w/o those two changes to the lineup today, we’re probably talking about another Phillies loss to the Marlins.
Andrew Knapp is a FA in 2023. He’s a popular guy but there’s a chance he’ll get non tendered with the emergence of Marchan.
God, I hope there are no more YouTube games for the Phillies this season. They are just as bad as last season. Cliff Floyd knew nothing about the Phillies. When talking about Bryce Harper’s HBP to the face, he said, “lucky it hit his helmet first”. What?
In the T9, after Torreyes was safe at first on the relay throw from second, Dan Plesac said the pitcher should have thrown home to start a 1-2-3 DP. However, the bases weren’t even loaded so Odubel couln’t have been forced out at the plate.
And why did they not show a replay of the Torreyes play at first until the umpires were almost done getting the official judgement from North Jersey?
Yeah I was screaming at the TV about the lack of knowledge about Harper’s HBP.
Although they were making good points about Marchan overframing a bit, they were a bit objective unlike Tmac or Kruky (I’m a huge fan of our broadcast TBH)
I don’t tune into Youtube games in protest….
Right now…the best position player is Doobie.
The guy is playing like it was 2016 all over again.
I told you before the season started that I was looking for comeback player of the year.
Correct you are…….he may be near the top of the leaders right now in the entire major leagues for the comeback award. Cubs Kris Bryant is also having an excellent rebound season.
With these injuries Phillies offense reminds me of when I was a kid in my tent in the backyard listening I think to By Saam and I would get excited when Tony Taylor and Cookie Rojas would come up to bay. That’s how bad it is
By Saam, Soul of the Site how old ago was he on the air?
rocco……bet you did not know….he called both the Philly As and Philly Phillies for over 10 years….. in the 40s.
Of course after the As moved in the mid-50s it was strictly the Phillies.
He called a lot of Philly baseball losses.
Listening to transistor radio and up to bat not bay. Thinking about those keeper fluke I caught last weekend
Hinkie, I agree, that 0-2 pitch was a strike. Herrera has been playing well, so credit where it is due. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t Matt Joyce 0 for 20something when he was Intentionally Walked? Anyway, I will take a W any way it comes. But, the stress level does not need to be this high!
18 one run games now…..Phillies are 10-8
How do you explain, with this bullpen, being over 500 in one run games.
Some things rocco…are unexplainable, like UFOs.
rocco – I would credit part of it to the top three starters going deep into games.
Watched most of the game. A few notes:
*Howard was dominant until he tired. I’m cutting him some slack because of how little he has pitched as a pro. Pitching is incredibly hard on your body and it takes years for the body to develop; he really simply hasn’t pitched that much. If you pitched, or had a son who did, you’d know this.
*I’m becoming a big Suarez fan. He’s had bad luck the last two years. I hope he gets another chance to start.
*Where would we be without Odubel, amidst all these injuries? Talk about redemption!
Suarez is performing so well as a reliever that I’m wary of throwing him back into the rotation.
Not only that, if the Phillies lose VV to FA, the rotation only has 1 free spot for 2022. And even though I didn’t think highly of both Medina and Falter, they both have been performing well at Lehigh and as such, should get an opportunity in ST to take that last rotation spot.
Maybe also David Parkinson?
He’s in the mix but he’ll need to bring his ERA down a bit. His HR and walk rate are pretty good though. I have no idea what his mix of pitches are.
I do think he has up ticked his velo on his 4smr FB.
Of course pitchers in the minors are on pitch counts, usually less than 75 pitches right now….so a pitcher can ‘air it out’ early on in his start.
He has a plus change -up and has been getting a lot of swig and misses of late…..and plus control.
Do not know about his CB or slider.
Romus What do you know about Singer, he is 27 is he legit prospect?
rocco…do not know. Phillies can always use another quality reliever…who can throw strikes, after 4/5 years now in the system, maybe it will be his turn soon. I do think he went to the same HS in NJ that the Bull’s son, Ryan Luzinski went to….30 years ago now.
Next baseball scandal…the spin -rate cheating scandal….pitchers getting chemical substances produced to enhance spin-rates.
There is good money in chemistry.
And one of the best products on the market to get you that excellent quality ‘ace’ spin rate…Spider Tack.
Listening somewhere said spray pine tar I guess actually tacky substance then wet hands and u become spider man. Increase grip and spin rate. Lower the mound and deaden ball still sounds like best way to improve game
After watching Howard I think that he feels pressure to be a flamethrower alas he might feel better using lower velo. and that might be better as he gets used to the majors.
He started with a 93-94 FB in the first, went 94-96 in the middle and finished 93-95, this leads me to believe that he was focused on velo in stead of pitching. today he was locating the FB, flashing a beautiful curveball and a good change up with horizontal sway.
I’m very happy and optimistic.
It could also just be he knows he CAN do it, so he’s trying too hard to get back there. Being suddenly unable to do something that you previously could do leads to people trying strange things to get the ability back.I don’t know if this is his new normal or not, but it’s perfectly human to have varying adjustment periods to change. All I know is he’s got the stuff to be an MLB pitcher, so I hope he can trust his abilities and continue to build on what’s been a pretty decent year for him.
Yes, I agree. pretty good post brother.
He mentioned after the game he wasn’t trying to save himself, it was poor mechanics. I hope he figures it out. I said it above but my main concern is him losing his stuff early leading to more injuries.
Not to beat a dead horse but to the ones who hated Kapler bc of the way he conducted himself in post games should have that same energy for Joe G. I’m baffled by his postgame presser yesterday. This guy coached in NY yet seems like he can’t handle, nor wants to deal w big market media. And it seems like he’s surprised by it. I’ll always pull for the team (regardless if I believe they are on the right path or not) but I’m out on Girardi. The guy talked about how straightforward and honest he would be as a manager, well like last week, he’s lied again. I was all in when he was hired but I’m all out now.
Eric D….bottom line,you either in or out?
LOL there are many reasons a lot of fans didn’t like Kapler and they are all entitled to those.
For me personally I didn’t like the fact that a guy with no managerial experience at any level was awarded such a prestigious position.
I understand the frustration with JoeG. I am still in on him, and not because I didn’t like Kapler. Girardi may not be the right Manager either, I don’t have to pick one or the other. But, what I get from this “new policy” I blame on the Front Office. The roster is poorly constructed. Counting on Kingery as the lone RH bench bat, when he was clearly in need of a long stint in AAA, was a mistake. The total lack of depth is on the FO. Waiting 2 months for Herrera to be given a shot was a mistake. And, if they had just released him I couldn’t have argued about that. But, keeping him but making him stay in LHV was a mistake. I venture to think that had he been up all season, even with the BP problems, 4th/5th SP problems, and horrible D, we would be in 1st place. That decision came from above Dombrowski. DD hasn’t had a lot of time to fix the organizational wide giant holes. They have 40 man Roster spots wasted on mediocre talent. The whole Harper injury, and the way injuries have been handled, I feel is a direct result of the poor Roster construction. I am not ready to dump the whole mess on Girardi.
Here’s hoping JoJo’s TJ goes well, and he ends up with a Jesus Luzardo outcome! Hope to see back maybe as soon as late next season.
Good luck and we’ll see you in ST in 2023.
Did anybody see that ridiculous rundown play with 2 OUTS involving the Cubs and Pirates? If that happened with Philadelphia, Hoskins would have gotten torched by the fans.
Yeah, there’s a great Jomboy video on Youtube that breaks it down. It’s really unbelievable. Probably the dumbest play in a decade.
What is even crazier is that the Pitcher, when interviewed, said no one was yelling at the First Baseman to just step on the bag. He said it was “dead silent”. No Coach or the Manager, or anyone, knew what to do. The 1B was not made available to speak. Just incredible. And yes, we would be roasting Hoskins and Girardi and everyone on the field it that happened to us. But kudos to Baez for even trying to do something.
Impression or comment about Medina above hits the nail right on the head. His lack of commitment to the game, teammates and his Prospect standing was on full display again. Wild pitch’s/passballs, failed pickoffs and his emotion or lack of when things don’t go his way. Body language and effort again lack of. I watched him for his entire career, amazing physical talent. 7 years a Professional Milb, 2018 10-4 season he showed his true talent and hopes of Rise.
Problem is his teammates follow suit ie: Llovera showed somewhat same attitude, .2 of inning showing same disdain for game. Why is this ok?
Respect the Game.
Howard’s consistent showing of Loss of Velo and some comments are😳. His history and his eating habits or diet interesting.
2 years of college, 120 ip
4 years of Prof, 221 ip
Stamina is based up time put into profession, not to mention mental or diet
Not to mention Alte Site Time
6 years Prof 468 ip
All of us know that input equals output:
Pandemic seems to have affected only Phillies Milbers.
Development Program is giving DD more impetuous to look outside ie: 27/29 YO castoffs
Prospect performances this year show those who are committed, they worked with coddling
You literally have no idea how hard any of these prospects worked in the down time of the offseason and when there were no games because of Covid. You’re writing a narrative to fit your views with zero evidence. “Input equals output” my butt. Some of the hardest working minor leaguers never even sniff The Show. And no one makes it to the majors without tremendous effort. No one. Some work harder than others, and some are more strict with their diets and offseason conditioning, etc. But every last one of them has worked harder than you can possibly imagine.
The Phils have shown what they’ll do with prospects who they think aren’t committed to playing baseball, regardless of prospect status. They either get traded or released. Well Medina is still here.
Good post (as usual), Dan K.
Can you imagine how nuts this site would have been if after Bohm fans, Torreyes grounds into a DP and the Phils lose in extras? So glad that didn’t happen.
Howard was good yesterday. He came out in more control of himself than versus Boston where he came out 96-98. Against Miami he stayed 93-95 and seemed relaxed.
Brings me to Wheeler. Never saw a guy throw as easily as he does and cranks it up to 98 mph. Such an easy motion. Twas a great signing by the home team.
Feel really bad for Kingery, so many expectations and now getting clobbered on all Phillies sites. I taught elementary school for 30+ years. Glad there was no social media.
I believe the Mets are the best team in the division. They are minus most of their big players, yet a bunch of rag tag performers are keeping them in it. Kind of like the Phils.
Mets and Braves go out it…then the Mets get the Padres a few times
So will have to see how they handle the next few weeks.
Wheeler could be cause for optimism in regards to Spencer, too. Wheeler always had the pedigree and the stuff, but never truly put it together (read, became a TOR pitcher) until he was 28. And his average fastball velocity in those earlier years are close to Howard’s now. His results, and velocity, have continued to improve over the last few years after people were wondering if he’d ever reach his ceiling.
I’m actually really happy Howard can learn from this staff. He has Nola to show him that you can win without throwing flames, and also Wheeler to show him how to utilize it when he can harness it. And at the end of the day, I’m also happy with the progress he’s made thus far. I hope he is, too.
Dan K….Wheeler had that almost two year delay and recovery from TJ
Howard has had his own injuries and layoffs to deal with.
Yes….and hopefully never to the magnitude that Wheeler experienced ….two and half years –2015, 2016 and portions of 2017–of no pitching.
Ramon Rosso cleared waivers and was sent to Lehigh.
Watched the Ironpigs last night. IMO Medina and Llovera are not future MLB players.
Seems our system is really weak in terms of guys with a positive mental attitude/skills who project to make the show.
My hope is that DD after he evaluates the assets across the 5 levels (ML — CL) jettisons those which have no chance for success. Problem is, that we are so deficient in talent it may be difficult to do it in one year. IMO this is going to take a while to fix w/o an influx of FA’s.
IMO it almost appears that one year we didn’t get anything at all in the draft and that is most evident at Reading. Maybe some of you, know better concerning a very bad draft year, if so, share.
Usually, I go to Reading 4-5 times a year and watch the TV games. Finding it difficult to allocate time to go there.
Question: Considering the state that MacPhail and Klentak have left the Phillies in, will Dave Dombrowski in year 1 of a 4 year contract be able to turn the Phillies into a perennial contender? Giving him an out for this year, what year will he be successful? Is the task impossible or attainable with the resources that he has at his disposal?
@ Romus, DMAR, Catch22, Matt13, Hinkie, Rocco, Spin, Westcoast, Wayne, V1, etc., all.
Skeet – A perennial contender is a tall order. There are better minds on here to address drafting and player development, which would be a key ingredient. One thing though, on more than one occasion, I’ve heard Dave D say that is has not been told that he could not go over the CBT. It seems to me that to be competitive next year, and for at least a few years out, the Phillies will have to spend big to compensate for the lack of elite talent in the minors. No matter how savvy Dave D is, you generally can’t get value without giving up value. (Unless you pull off a couple of Pivetta and Seabold for Workman and Hembree type trades.)
No need to shed tears for Kingery. Many here would take the millions and care less about criticism on a obscure forum. I’m over 60 and just put in a 10 hour day. Kingery will be ok.
DMAR didn’t like Kapler being awarded such a prestigious position of managing the Philadelphia Phillies. Please u were being sarcastic when talking about the no. 1 losing professional sports team.
Here is an interesting but not surprising stat. The Phillies as a team rank 17 in ERA at 4.15, but 9th in xFIP at 3.86. Individually,
Pitcher // ERA // xFIP
Wheeler // 2.38 // 2.92
Nola // 3.72 // 3.45
Eflin // 3.84 // 3.21
Howard // 5.56 // 4.75
VV // 2.95 // 4.06
VV is the only pitcher with a xFIP higher than his ERA, which is driven by the 4 HRs he gave up in late April in his first two starts of the season. VV has to do a better job of keeping the ball in the park, He’s given up at least one in each of his first five starts. His HR / FB ratio is a poor 20.6%.
Actually, what s said wasn’t quite right. Wheeler’s xFIP is also higher than his ERA, but with both below 3.00, I tend to ignore the difference.
Plus Vinny’s BB/9 is really too high driving up that xFIP metric.
Highest among all the starters.
Of course, you’re right, Romus. I am very happy for VV’s recent success, but combine a high walk rate with a propensity to surrender the long ball and well, … that’s not a recipe for sustained success.
To be fair to Vinny….the games he has started…..the last bits…his BB/9 is only 2.3…..otoh, his first three games this season in April he was horrible 8 BBs in 4 IP…all in relief….and those first three games have driven up tat BB/9 metric considerably.
So the Mariners brought up some big time prospects this year and these are the results:
Jarred Kelenic (#4 on MLBPipeline) : .494 OPS, -0.3 WAR in 55 ABs
Logan Gilbert (#27 on MLBPipeline): 7.59 ERA, -0.3 WAR in 3 starts
Taylor Trammel (#83 on MLBPipeline): .593 OPS, 0 WAR in 83 ABs
Not only that, over the years they brought up:
Kyle Lewis: ROY last season but has .690 OPS, 0.4 WAR this season
Justus Sheffield: was top 50 prospect but has career 0.4 WAR
The last time the Mariners made the playoffs was 2001. They are obviously trying to build through the draft but it doesn’t seem to be working out for the last 20 years.
Skeet, a perennial contender requires drafting and developing at a much greater level than what we have done, and that will require more than DD. We need to get a little lucky with Baylor and Simmons and/or Johan Rojas and have actual high level prospects at some point. And, hope they are not traded away. I am hopeful that DD can put a Playoff team on the field, and I believe it will take at least one very big trade, where we come out ahead.
JT is back and Marchan is sent to Lehigh.
Curious that Hoskins is the DH and Miller is at 1B.
Looks like Torreyes and Maton are in a platoon at SS until Didi comes back (whenever that may be).
Phillies play the Rays in Tampa…for how long in the future remains to be seen…Rays could be a Nashville or Charlotte team some time in the future..
Rays are moving for sure, but Tampa won’t release the Rays from their lease. The lease expires in 2027. However, this gives time for cities to prepare their bids and get their money in order.
And Roman Quinn is hurt again (ankle). It looks pretty bad.
It does look bad. It’s a near certainty that Quinn is headed back to the IL. If Moniak is not playing at Lehigh tonight, he’s likely on a plane to Tampa.
Quinn is down again, didn’t look good as they carried him off the field, maybe Achilles, don’t know for sure.
Isn’t Jankowski hitting well at LHV? And, isn’t there a 40 man roster spot with Rosso being DFA’d? I root for Moniak, but he belongs in LHV until he shows he’s hitting well there. If there isn’t a 40 Man spot, then we need to make one.
Spot on Matt!
Ramon Rosso was DFAd to make room for Brady Lail.
Quinn will go on 60 day IL, and I would use that 40 man spot on Jankowski. This team needs help like right now. Jankowski is the most likely to provide immediate impact. He can swing the bat a little, good D, very good speed.
Coonrod and Alverado are slowly unraveling. Coonrod has now been scored upon 3 out the last 4.
In Game 1 of their doubleheader, Matt Moore is starting (rehab), Jankowski (DH) and Moniak (CF) are playing for Lehigh.
The Rays are like the ultimate grind team. No superstars but they grind and put balls into play when they have to. Even their bullpen is less about fastball velocity and more about deception and non-fastball movement.
Quinn tore his Achillies and will go on the 60 day IL which will open up a 40 spot. Haseley should get that spot when he’s ready. Until he’s ready, they’ll probably bring Moniak up. If they give the 40 spot to Jankowski (or the hot Randolph) which is possible, they’ll need to find another 40 spot for Haseley in a few weeks. I don’t think they want to lose a pitcher so I expect Moniak up for now.
Moniak hitting 188. Haseley needs to get himself ready and back up here quickly.
Same old same old. No timely hitting. Relievers allowing too many free passes. Another wasted effort by a SP.
Hinkie, infield hits, walks, HBP, WP, just awful. Murray, you may very well be right about Moniak coming up, but that would be a mistake. Who knows when Haseley comes back, or what his condition is? And, it shouldn’t be hard to find a 40 spot for Haseley when/if he is ready. I want the guy who is hitting, Jankowski, and let Mickey work on his game. And, can someone explain to me how we K so much against guys like Yarborough, and last week Martin Perez. Contact pitchers, not strike out guys. Our ABs are brutal.
Agree with you, matt. Jankowski provides the best chance of providing immediate help.
They could call up Jankowski now and just release him when Haseley is ready in a month.
The Phillies are a notorious fastball hitting team. They struggle against pitchers with really good secondary pitchers. I would guess that the reason why hitting is down throughout MLB is that pitchers are throwing their secondary pitches more than ever and they are getting quite good at it. Usually the hitters work themselves into fastball hitting counts and wait for the fastball. It’s clearly not that anymore. I mean, I’m not even sure how many fastballs Odubel got the whole game, and if he did get it, it certainly wasn’t hittable. It’s no coicidence that VV’s resurgence is tied to the fact that he’s not pumping fastballs all the time.
How many fastballs did Yarborough throw that were in the zone? How many Phillies struck out on the changeup or slider?
There is only a select few that have elite fastballs. The rest seem to be throwing more non-fastballs and the hitters have to adjust.
Any decent fielding first basemen fields that single in the first inning and Meadows never comes up.
Nobody can be serious about calling up Moniak. Are the Phillies trying to win the division or at least qualify for a wildcard or what.
Brad Miller is not a major league fielder at any position. And today he whiffed three times to boot. Thirty one strikeouts in an eight and a half inning game. Ouch! Phillies can’t seem to escape bullpen woes.
So sad for Roman….this may be it for him .
Achilles injuries are difficult, especially for speedsters who need that burst and extra push off.
They pinch hit for Jankowski, so he is probably on his way to FL.
I am sure rocco is already driving him down to the airport
Yup, that would make sense. On to Tampa
See Cordell has 5 HR’s in 16 games at LHV. Bonafacio should move up to LHV when Jankoski goes up to Philly.
Marcell Ozuna, who’s on the IL for 6 weeks, has just been arrested for assault and battery charges. This means he’s subject to MLB’s Domestic Violence policy. It’s safe to say that he’s done for the rest of the season. The Braves just signed Ozuna to 4 years, $65M this past offseason.
MLB needs to revise its policy. 1st offense should be mandatory 1 year suspension.
Check these career stats:
player A: .227/.305/.660
player B: .238/.315/.628
Player A is Roman Quinn. Player B is Travis Jankowski.
So not sure what people are expecting out of Jankowski besides decent defense. He’s just a bench guy at this point.
Roman’s Difficult Journey:
Hard to believe any one player has sustained this number of injuries in their professional career. And missed so much time playing the game they love.
……………….nothing but the best for Roman.
From another Phillies blog:
May 29, 2021: Underwent MRI on injured left Achilles
May 5, 2021: Placed on 10-day injured list with a laceration on his right index finger. Quinn suffered the injury, which required several stitches, when trying to lay down a bunt against the Milwaukee Brewers.
May 1, 2021: Placed on COVID-related injured list
March 27, 2021: Food poising; Quinn missed limited late-spring training action.
September 6, 2020: Placed on 7-day concussion injured list.
August 16, 2020: Placed on COVID-related injured list; Quinn reported minor symptoms related to the coronavirus, so the Phillies played it safe. He later tested negative.
August 17, 2019: Placed on 10-day injured list with a right groin strain; Quinn appeared to tweak his groin when running the first base.
April 25, 2019: Placed on 10-day injured list with a right groin strain
March 28, 2019: Placed on 10-day injured list with a right oblique strain (suffered in late. February)
September 8, 2018: Diagnosed with a small fracture in his right foot, but remained available
August 25, 2018: Tweaked left hamstring while diving for a ball
May 15, 2018: Placed on disabled list at Triple-A with a sprained right middle finger (underwent surgery on May 21 to repair a torn ligament)
June 7, 2017: An MRI revealed a UCL injury to left (non-throwing) elbow
September 27, 2016: Quinn left game early with a strained left oblique
June 16, 2016: Placed on 7-day disabled list at Double-A with a strained left oblique
November 6, 2013: Ruptured right Achilles tendon while running sprints near Florida home
You are a lexicon of info and so comprehensive in your data gathering! Did you work in the CIA that you even have access to patients medical charts? I am in awe! 🧐
Skeet…..that is not the whole chart…there was more between 2013 and 2016…..’14 in CLW Roman missed 45 or so games ….and ’15 in Reading another 70 or so…..but you get the picture.
I Used to work in a Circus as a Clown yrs ago, Watching LHV last night, Made me think, most of these guys, are better clowns than ball players, Damon jones has no clue where the ball is going, Hall is terrible and so on and so forth, Then i look at reading and see My guy Stephens is hitting under a 100 just cant believe how bad this organization has become,
Uncle Rocco,………….believe it, its for real! If DD can turn this around in 4 years it will be a miracle.
Well Dombrowski will have to be a magician to turn this team into a contender without enough collateral in the minors. Many have said this here team is in no mans land.
The whole selection development in the organization has to change. Where have you gone Ed Wade.
You know it’s bad when the posters think that Ed freaking Wade would be an upgrade. Spoiler alert – he isn’t, but I share your frustration with this never ending _hit show.
Uhh Ed Wade would be a huge upgrade in terms of what this team needs. Say what you want but Wade has built teams that win, he just never stuck around long enough to see the fruits of his labor. If this org was ready for a complete tear down, I wouldn’t be against Ed Wade being in charge or in charge of at least scouting.
He is a caretaker GM – overmatched at every stop. He is NOT the answer. Unless you want another decade of .500 teams.
Unfortunately, really bad GMs have made you long for a mediocre GM.
There are numerous better options. But Middleton hasn’t been sharply enough to hire them.
No he didn’t. He was fired here because he wasn’t sharp enough to add the right pieces to the guys that Mike Arbuckle drafted (Pat Gillick could and did) and he was an abject failure in Houston, leaving that franchise on oxygen support with the worst record in baseball several years running.
Sadly horrible GMs have made you long for a mediocre GM.
It’s now official, Quinn is on the 60 day IL and Travis Jankowski has been called up.
I have dreamed of Roman Quinn, key lead off hitter and terrific Defensive CF for years. I feel awful for him. I have never seen, in any of our sports teams, such a large number if various injuries. I wish him well, and I am afraid his time on the Phillies may be done. Guru, I don’t think anyone is expecting a whole lot from Jankowski. But, if the choice is calling up him or MM, he deserves the shot and Mickey deserves time in AAA to work on his game.
For what its worth – Jankowski can run well ! I expect he will win one game for the team with his speed – somehow, some way…not a bad replacement at this time.
It is hard to watch. I know I don’t get this whole opener thing, but we made the Fleming guy look like vintage Tom Glavin. We throw just enough mistakes to lose. McCutchen and Bohm hovering around the Mendoza line, and we just love to watch hittable pitches go down the middle of the plate and swing at pitches out of the zone. A mess!
Thankfully watched college championship game on computer instead of Phils. 10-10 in 10th. MLB getting tougher to watch. At least get to watch field of 64 for next few weeks
i Open a window and a fly got into my house So i chased him , instead of watching , the game if you could call it baseball,
Cornhole championship tomorrow same time as phillies game. Over under is 2 on how many pop ups bohm drops
Defense is absolutely killing them. And not just errors in the box score. Bohm’s play wasn’t ruled an error. The ground single in the first in yesterday’s game that Miller should have fielded wasn’t an error but led to a two run homer by the next batter. How can you win games if you can’t catch and field?
Roccom, you never stop making me chuckle. You are right, he overran a popup! We make the most basic mistakes constantly! I don’t even know where to start to fix it. I always thought that defense was an important part of a team. I still think so, which makes the configuration of this team so unbelievably poor.
When it comes to Bohm…might not be a bad idea to send him to LHV for 4/5 weeks.
Recharge his batteries, relax, take some pressure off and regain his confidence.
He has proven, from last year’s debut….he can play at the MLB level, however the current slump is wearing on him.
Bohm is not an mlb 3rd baseman. Sooner they get him out of there the sooner his head is clear when he goes up to bat. Without complete concentration u ain’t hitting mlb pitching. Struggling in the field will affect ur hitting especially a young player.
I have been busy and have missed most of the recent games. But I look at the recaps.
I watch the 14U travel teams quite a bit. They make the same mistakes. Missed pop ups, misplaying fly balls, throwing to the wrong base, missing cut off throws, failing to move runners up, etc. These are things that kids this age should be able to do by now.
It is amazing that the Phillies seems to do the same game after game. I mentioned awhile back that this team to me looked like a 75 win team. I am going to down grade that to around 70.
Many seemed to be enthused about the new additions. Two months into the season and it does not seem there is a definite hit on the new comers.
I have been a Phillies fan since I was a kid in the 60s. I have witnessed the good and the bad and the ugly. I think the last 10 years have maybe been the ugliest. Phillies have now been irrelevant for 10 years in a row.
If you think back to the 2008-2011 seasons the Phillies came really close to winning 4 straight World Series. It is hard to believe watching Ryan Howard fall to the ground began a decade of mediocrity.
I am not in tune with the minor league guys but listening to most of you things do not look very bright going forward.
Let’s hope I am all wrong and things improve tomorrow. I have learned to keep things in perspective anymore.
I have also been disappointed in Girardi. I really thought he would turn things around for the Phillies. I may be wrong but to me it seems at times his heart really is not in the game now. I have nothing to base that on other than just watching the dugout. Maybe he still will but I am not sure now.
One last thing. Harper getting hit in the face seems to initiated the free fall 3 weeks ago. Everyone was saying how tough he was to basically get right back in. There is no way of knowing what goes through his mind in the batters box. I can only think back to Tony C on the Red Sox who was hit in the face. I believe in the eye. He was never the same after that and actually retired a couple years later. Let’s hope things are different for Bryce.
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