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43 thoughts on “2021 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – May 18, 2021”
Anthony Solometo surrendered his first run and second and third hits of the season yesterday afternoon as Bishop Eustace beat Kingsway 2-1. The possible Phuture Phillie LHP (fingers crossed) used a 92-95 MPH FB, his wipeout SL, and a CH to K 15 batters in front of dozens of MLB scouts.
Hinkie, I am still hoping for a Bachman/Solometo Daily Double for the Phils. Can you make it happen?
Matt … Bachman could probably pitch out of the Phillies BP this season. That said, I saw him throw this weekend. It was just one game, but I was a little disappointed. He was having a difficult time commanding his SL. Cusick had a rough outing too.
I’m all in on Solometo. I’d even consider him at 1-13 (at some sort of discount), knowing he may not make it to 2-49.
Chase Petty went four innings (was on a 50 pitch work load limit), allowed 1 R on 2 Hs, 0 BB, and 4 Ks vs Cherokee HS on Sunday. Petty was up to 97 MPH in that game. For the season, the 6’0″/185 lb Mainland HS RHP is 30 IP, 9 H, 60 K, 1,17 ERA.
From your reports Hinkie it kind of feels we should focus on pitching, do you agree given the talent pool for this draft?
It’s always best to draft the BPA (with some consideration to asking price). The Phillies farm system is pretty thin. They can use any type of talent.
I do believe the college pitching class is very deep (because of the abbreviated 2020 event) so Brian Barber may be able to find arm talent well into day two of the draft.
My strategy, if I was the GM of a major league team would be to always draft the best pitcher available (with the filter that he must have an elite fastball). Unless, the available pitching options are clearly and overwhelmingly weaker than a college hitter. If it is close between a pitcher and a hitter I would take the pitcher.
Callis and Mayo have updated their list, and expanded it to 200.
1 Marcello Mayer
11 Sal Frelick
14 Sam Bachman
15 Jordan Wicks
16 Benny Montgomery
17 Jud Fabian
18 Andrew Painter
22 Ryan Cusick
23 Gunnar Hoglund
25 Chase Petty
30 Anthony Solometo
33 Jaden Hill
I would stay far away from Jud Fabian. He has bust all over him imo. Too much swing and miss.
I think Brian Barber may have an affinity for guys with the big power bats…ie Casey Martin….but, less concern for a huge red-flag, like hi-K%, he may think he can get them to cut that down.
With the a first round pick….that can be risky….Martin in the 3rd round was a different story.
Agreed. Fabian even in the second round is a fine gamble.
Im a Penn State football fan and wanted to know your thoughts about Lonnie White out of PA. What are his draft projections? What do you think his % of turning pro in baseball are?
I’m a PSU fan too. I think there’s a good chance he never makes it to campus.
White is ranked as the #52 draft prospect, per the MLB.com list linked in an earlier post in this discussion.
The slot bonus for #52 is just over $1.4M. White has some leverage (prep player, PSU football scholarship waiting), so I expect he could get at least the slot bonus, or close to it. While not first round money, $1.4M would be tough for a high school senior to turn down.
Romus … Jim Callis thinks a certain Florida CFer could be in play in the area the Phillies are picking in round one.
I’m alright with that….Fabian or Frelick.
I think Fabian handle CFer full time….did it with the Gators and other amateur ball since 2019, 150 games or so…. but a power bat for LF is still a good thing if he cannot do the MLB CF gig defensively..
He has busy written all over him imo.
Hinkie….last guy on the list of 200….local kid from Villanova…RHP Gordon Graceffo…..a north Jersey HS kid. More than likely a Mets or Yankee fan growling up as a kid.
Kinda got in late on last thread for draft but be as I said be careful of home run hitters in south college. Lotta short porch parks and inflated numbers. Even in SEC big difference between #1 pitchers and 2 and 3. Lotta mid week games against weak pitchers.
Patso … I’ve been trying to respond to your post all morning, but for some reason, the site keeps rejecting my post. Might be a word or phrase that it won’t take so I’ll re-write it. Maybe I’ll even try to post it in pieces.
First … I enjoy reading your opinions on the draft/amateur baseball. You make good points.
When it comes to Fabian … there are valid reasons to knock his prospect status (high K-rates, trouble w/bre@king balls), but IMO, questioning his power isn’t one of them. The raw power is real. Maybe it’s muted some because of his problems with making contact.
Florida is playing in their new ballpark this season. They probably play two-thirds of their games at home. The new stadium’s dimensions are pretty identical to those at CBP. As a matter of fact, the Gators’ field actually has deeper alleys than CBP.
And for me, the SEC houses the best pitching in the country. They almost always get more top ranked HS arms than any other conference. Look at some of the #2 starters in the league: Leiter, Bednar, Cannon. They’re all going to go in the first 50 picks this July. Yes, Florida (like every other power 5 conference club) plays inferior mid-week competition.
BTW … this is not an endorsement of selecting Jud Fabian at 1-13. I’m just saying he needs to be considered.
Mock from Mayo has us taking Jordan Wicks, a college LHP with an elite changeup.
I was a little disappointed in that mock. Not so much for the pick (although I’d rather the Phillies draft Solometo over Wicks), but for the lack of any info on what teams are thinking. I read a lot. I’ve read the Angels love Bubba Chandler, but not as a pitcher. They prefer him as a SS (comp him to Chipper Jones). I’ve read the Nationals are most interested in a pitcher at 1-11. Didn’t get any of that from Mayo’s mock.
I don’t have a strong opinion this year. I’m generally leaning arm over bat but it all depends on how the board breaks ahead of us. It would be great if Madden got to us but that doesn’t seem likely to me. If I could get Hoglund and save 500-750K underslot I’d love that (and frankly draftees aren’t going to play much this year if at all so why not?). From the writeups I also like Wicks on the college side and Painter on the HS side. It will be interesting to see who we get “connected” with by the pundits. Last year, I don’t think anybody connected us with Abel prior to the draft (I think we were connected with Cavalli, Bitsko, Soderstrom and Crow-Armstrong at one point).
I have heard the Phillies connected to Painter already. However, as you mentioned, the Phillies seem pretty tight lipped when it comes to the draft. The Abel pick seemed to come out of left field last year.
Last season’s draft….all pitchers taken before the Phillies pick were college pitchers….I guess not having HS spring ball was a concern for teams.
And after the Phillies the next HS pitcher was CB East’s Bitsko at 24.by the Rays..
This year there could be one or two HSer -pitchers- taken before 13
My opinion on stadiums is what I see on TV. A lot of center fields at 390. Because of baseball scholarship structure usually big drop after number 1s and often in state kids to defray small scholarships. Watched an LSU Vanderbilt game earlier when I think Hill went out with injury vs Leiter. LSU on a Friday night brought in a 5’9 lefty throwing 86 with no off speed stuff. It was 3-0 and LSU throwing in towel because of pitcher rationing.
The Vanderbilts and like probably throw academic $$ at kids which enables them to fill more pitcher slots.
Was at some Northeastern games over last month. They are loaded with pitching. Tom Glavines brother as manager don’t hurt
Mr Hinkie – Keep an eye on a few Connecticut possibilities. At UConn there is a righty pitcher, Ben Casparius, a top notch catcher, Pat Winkel, and possibly a 1B named Reggie Crawford (he may have to remain another year). Casparius has a great CB and his FB is 89-93. Winkel was drafted by the NYY 3 years ago. He has power to all fields and I compare him to O’Hoppe even today. The last player is a lefty pitcher from East Catholic HS named Frank Mozzicato. He has committed to UConn but I believe he may go in the first three rounds.
ciada…..MLB.com has the East Catholic pitcher going in the 2nd round.
ciada … I also like Kyler Fedko, (the Western PA kid playing CF for the Huskies) as a day three pick.
Most colleges finished their regular season this weekend. They’ll move on to conference playoffs and then the NCAA Tournament after that.
* Jud Fabian … went 1 for 11 (single). He struck out 9 times, got thrown out trying to steal a base, and committed an error. Otherwise, everything was rainbows and unicorns for the Florida CFer as his squad got swept at Arkansas.
To add insult to injury, took some verbal abuse from a Razorback pitcher.
* Sal Frelick … was 4 for 11 (2 doubles), 2 BB, 1 HBP (w/the bases loaded), 2 K, 4 R, 2 RBI, 2 SB in a weekend series vs Virginia. The BC CFer is now slashing .359/.443/.559.
BTW … Keith Law said this is a recent Q&A: “Frelick strikes me as the player Adam Haseley was supposed to be, including the ability to play CF”. So would the Phillies use the 1-13 pick to take a second bite of the apple (if the BC CFer is still available)?
* Ryan Cusick … bounced back from a terrible outing a week ago. The 6’6″/230 lb Wake Forest fire thrower handled Pitt by going 7.1 IP, 1 R, 6 H, 1 BB, 10 K. Cusick has now totaled 70 IP, 65 H, 32 BB, 108 K, 4.24 ERA.
* Sam Bachman … also rebounded from his worst start of the season last weekend. The Miami (Ohio) RHP went 5 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 2 BB, 9 K vs Akron. He’s up to 53 IP, 26 H, 17 BB, 84 K, 2.04 ERA this season.
… and here’s a mock from Mason McRae. Guess which Florida CFer he has the Phillies picking? Well … at least the player did his part this weekend to ensure he will still be available at 1-13.
No thank you, Mason McRae.
Pretty good with the glove too.
10 Mets … Ty Madden
11 Nationals … Jackson Jobe
12 Mariners … Colton Cowser
13 Phillies … Jordan Wicks
22 White Sox … Chase Petty
26 Twins … Jud Fabian
27 Padres … Anthony Solometo
Eagleye5 … BA also has Lonnie White mocked to Tampa at 1-28.
Here are some highlights from another Chase Petty dominant performance Sunday night. In his final regular season HS contest, the RHP led Mainland past Don Bosco Prep. Petty threw a complete game: 7 IP, 2 R, 2 H, 3 BB, 13 K. There were ~70 scouts on hand to see the 6’0″/180 lb RHP throw his mid 90s FB T99 and his plus SL. Petty has now totaled 37 IP, 11 H, 13 BB, 73 K this season.
Hinkie, when do we get your final list of who you would like in the first few Rds. I know, and appreciate, all the information you give us, and you have mentioned several possibilities.
I like Wicks at 13. I love a LHP with a Plus CU. Still a big Cusick fan but if there are questions as to whether or not he has the repertoire to remain a starter then no.
If they take Fabian I think I will go totally over the cliff. I’ve see him quite a bit on the SEC channel and that kid couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.
DMAR…….Fabian does have that swing and miss thing going for him, but cannot deny the power bat..
Personally, if it is a CFer….hoping for Frelick…..he has more contact ability than Fabian, but falls well short in power.
Your description of his hit tool ….funny, and really sounds so much like rocco.
Phillies drafting a CF would be like eagles drafting wide receivers every year. I honestly don’t know much about these kids but I prefer college arm or young SS that can hit and could be moved to any other position
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