The Threshers are back in Clearwater this week. Thankfully, something to keep me from watching the Phillies’games.
This is going to be short. The minor league recap was a little depressing this weekend. The Phillies game Sunday was also depressing. It’s nice that they rallied after falling so far behind. But, some circumstances should upset fans.
For instance, how does a team go into a game with a one-man bench? Then, when the catcher can’t start, they essentially had a no-man bench. When a dizzy Kingery had to be removed because of concussion protocols, they put a crippled Harper in the game. Of course, his spot comes up in the ninth with the tying runs in scoring position.
If this had happened under Klentak and Kapler, social media would have blown up. You guys would go bonkers in the comments section (and maybe you still will). I don’t see how a team can be happy having 2-3 guys on the bench who aren’t able to play. Sounds like a bullpen that can’t use half of its pitchers on any given day. (I still can’t wrap my head around that.)
Every day I see other teams acquiring players on minor league contracts to help the big team. Shoot,, the Yankees just put a guy on the IL and went and signed depth. Why isn’t our GM doing the same thing? I don’t want to hear about the 40-man. Other teams are making adjustments. Maybe don’t carry so many duds on the 40. Get pitchers who can help this season, this week. Same for position players. Put the old and infirmed on the IL and get healthy players. If we don’t have replacements, get some.
Not having players on the bench is on the manager, right? Not having players in Triple-A is on the GM, right. Since May 9th, there have been 36 free agent signings and 4 trades. None involved the Phillies. But a lot of playoff contenders were involved. Like Atlanta. The Astros. The Yankees. Why not us?
Do we have guys who shouldn’t be on the active roster? Do we have guys who should be on the IL? Then the guy who is supposed to fix that stuff has to fix it. I’m tired of the “we don’t have …” lament. That may have been a little rambly, but I’m tired of the excuses being made for the current regime. If we’re supposed to contend, they don’t get a pass.
I’m also tired of the Nola is/isn’t an ace argument on social media. His detractors go overboard trashing him. His supporters show lists of stats that show Nola listed in the top ten. The stats are just some bilge generated by some statnerd that are essentially measuring the same thing. There is no stat that determines an ace.
The definition of an ace is the same as it was in 2016, as it was in 2006, and beyond I suppose. An ace has –
2 plus pitches, an average 3rd pitch, plus-plus command, and plus make-up.
One of an ace’s plus pitches is usually a fastball. Five years ago a plus fastball was a 60-grade fastball and averaged 94 mph for a RHP and 93 for a LHP. That surely has gone up at least one mph, maybe 1.5 or 2 mph.
I know that the real baseball analysts, not the TV or game analysts, agree that there are maybe 8-12 aces in the majors any given year. And, maybe 30 #2s. It’s not a crime to not be a #1, the bar is set high. And, it keeps moving up. A pitcher can be an ace one year and not the next. It’s fleeting, not something a pitcher earns and then keeps because he earned it once.
I don’t know if the Phillies have an ace. I certainly think that Wheeler’s fastball is a plus pitch. But, I don’t need them to be aces. I just need them to pitch well. Nola has been a little inconsistent. He needs to pick it up.
Whew. Sorry to vent. Just needed to get that said. The people who need to see it won’t. I don’t want to get in an argument with the statheads on social media. Thanks.
This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.
- May 4, 2021 – Opening day for all four full-season affiliates
- June 25, 2021 – Close of the 2020 international signing period
- June 28, 2021 – GCL season begins (through September 12th)
- July 11-13, 2021 – 2021 Amateur Draft
- July 12, 2021 – DSL starts (through October 2nd)
- July 30, 2021: Trade Deadline (4 p.m. ET)
- Oct. 3, 2021: Regular season concludes
The rosters and lists are up to date as of May 16th … 303 players in the org
The following players have turned up at XST – INF Uziel Viloria, INF Ruben Tejada, INF Juan Herrera, INF Wilson Valdez, C Edward Barboza, OF Jefferson Encarnacion, OF Felix Reyes.
- organization’s rosters (5/16)
- organization’s injury list (5/16)
- organization’s Rule 5 eligibility (5/16) (includes player info, assignments, …)
Transactions (newest transactions are in bold print, those not in last week’s Open Discussion, and I’m waiting for the Tejada signing to become official)
There are 12 players who are not in the Phillies Media Guide who I am not counting in the total for the organization. I’m carrying them in their own section on the sheets.
5/16/2021 – LHP Brian Marconi assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
5/16/2021 – RHP Andrew Brown assigned to Jersey Shore from Reading
5/15/2021 – RHP Braden Zarbnisky assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
5/14/2021 – Phillies activated C J.T. Realmuto from the 10-day IL
5/14/2021 – Phillies optioned RHP Enyel De Los Santos to Lehigh Valley
5/14/2021 – Reading placed C Rodolfo Duran on the 7-day IL, left hamstring strain
5/13/2021 – Phillies placed C J.T. Realmuto on the 10-day IL
5/13/2021 – Phillies recalled C Rafael Marchan from Lehigh
5/13/2021 – Reading placed 1B Matt Kroon on the 7-day IL, right shoulder contusion
5/13/2021 – OF Hunter Hearn assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore
5/13/2021 – OF Hunter Markwardt assigned to Jersey Shore from Clearwater
5/13/2021 – RF Carlos De La Cruz assigned to Clearwater from Extended Spring
5/13/2021 – RHP Carlos A Francisco assigned to Clearwater from Extended Spring
5/12/2021 – Phillies sent RHP Archie Bradley on a rehab assignment to Lehigh Valley
5/12/2021 – RHP Kyle Glogoski assigned to Reading from Lehigh Valley
5/12/2021 – LHP Jhordany Mezquita assigned to Jersey Shore from Reading
5/12/2021 – Clearwater placed RHP Gunner Mayer on the 7-day IL
5/11/2021 – OF Corbin Williams assigned to Extended Spring from Clearwater
5/11/2021 – OF Baron Radcliff assigned to Clearwater from Extended Spring Training
2/13/2021 – SS Alfredo Alderete assigned to DSL Red
2/13/2021 – RHP Daniel Mejia assigned to DSL Red
2/02/2021 – LHP Jesus Garibaldi assigned to DSL Red
2/02/2021 – OF Raylin Heredia assigned to DSL White
2/02/2021 – C Dervin Andrade assigned to DSL White
2/02/2021 – RHP Ender Paz assigned to DSL White
267 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of May 16, 2021”
Gelb is reporting from multiple sources that the there are serious discussions about removing Kingery from the 40, Past time for that. Given how limited Harper was, Kingery better have been extremely dizzy for risking further injury to Harper. Good riddance.
I expect that to happen. No one will claim Kingery’s salary so he’ll still be at AAA
I don’t want to be defending Kingery but if he’s complaining about dizziness (especially from running into a wall), he probably got checked out for a concussion. I’m sure MLB has strict concussion protocols, like the other sports.
Like I mentioned yesterday…DFA Kingery…..and bring on Luke Williams.
If Kingery has a concussion, then I believe the rule is he must go on the 10-day IL.
Robin, Harper risked injury because he didn’t say “No” when asked to go into the game. The fault, if Harper does suffer further injury, belongs to Girardi and Dombrowski. How can you be so obtuse as to blame Kingery?
“How can you be so obtuse?” LOL… flashes of the Shawshank Redemption..
I love that quote.
Thanks Jim that needed to be said.
Sent from my iPad
Jim, well written discourse on an “Ace”.
Wondered if you could provide any additional enlightenment on the “toxic clubhouse” statement of the other week? Seems to me like a chemistry problem exists on this team and there are a couple of players who are protected by ironclad contracts that have potential for tainting the rest.
My observation, anyway.
Yeah about that, I asked a Phillies beat writer from “Las Bases Llenas” about that specific topic, and he told me that he really doubts it, because Cutch would have spoken about it.
Alas I have my doubts.
” A pitcher can be an ace one year and not the next. It’s fleeting, not something a pitcher earns and then keeps because he earned it once.”…agree 100%.
Then one has to factor in availability……injuries should be taken into consideration.
For example, is a Strasburg or Verlander still aces…hard to still call them ‘aces’…the last few years they have not even been on the field
For Nola…this may be just a funk year for him so far, he still can right his ship.
Romus not to get jim mad, But to you from me, I only contend that the one thing that holds Nola back is his Velo, When i see him at 94 and above in a game, I say to myself, I talk to myself a lot, Now he is going to pitch well tonight, He imo is such a different pitcher at 92 or less, i know its not much more velo but it seems to make his other stuff better, I still think he is a good pitcher, But to me a Ace is the guy who starts the First playoff game mostly, Or Pitches that critical game in a series on short rest and still does it, maybe its just me but that is a Ace,
rocco….yes you also nailed it……the pitcher you want to start in that first World Series/play-off game…is da man.
Rocco, why would I be mad? I agree that velocity is important. As are command and movement.
I didn’t offer an opinion on whether Nola or anyone was an ace with my correct defination of an ace.
Your different definition of an ace that sets parameters that exclude Nola from being an ace. He hasn’t had the opportunity to pitch the first playoff game (not his fault), he doesn’t pitch well on 4 days rest (29-28, 4.27 ERA, just under 6.0 innings per game, 1.245 WIP), and he doesn’t have a good track record in Sep/Oct (7-12, 4.28 ERA, just under 6.0 innings per game, 1.307 WHIP, and H/9 and HR/9 that are above his career averages).
Well, maybe it’s a little his fault that he hasn’t had the opportunity to pitch in the post-season.
Some interesting conversation starters! Let’s tackle them:
Is Nola an ace (#1), 1A, or even 2? Does it really matter at this point? This is his 7th year in a Phillies uniform. Nola is good enough to be on every MLB starting rotation. Other teams would fall over themselves adding him to their rotation. As much as we dissect his pitching, he’s on track for a 5+ WAR season. I’ll take that. Heck, I’ll take 3 more guys like that.
Why is Kingery on the MLB roster? No clue. If the goal is to fix him, he should be doing that in Lehigh and not here. There’s no reason why he’s up and others (like Torreyes) are down. If he gets DFAd, so be it.
What happened with yesterday’s bench? That’s more of a gray area. Before Saturday’s game, they had Knapp, Marchan, Kingery, Didi (not available) as the bench. After Saturday’s game, you had only Marchan as the bench. The Phillies had only 1 game on Sunday before a day off, and it was an interleague game. I could understand them rolling the dice with Marchan as the bench. Who knew that Knapp was going be out? Who knew that Kingery was going to complain aboiut dizziness? If JT and Bryce are day-to-day, you don’t really want to put them on the IL and then lose 8 games minimum from them. Those guys are elite players. With Didi, you can afford to not put him on the IL if there’s others who are healthy. Now, you really can’t. If JT or Bryce is not healthy to play Tuesday, I expect Didi to be on the IL.
Kingery – he’s on the roster because there is no one else on the 40 to bring up unless they want to foul upMoniak the way they did Kingery. Kingery was supposed to play every day in Triple-A to work out his swing. He has had ONE at bat at Triple-A (a triple).
Why is he their only option? Because they are carrying a gawd-awful amount of pitchers at the expense of position player depth. Pitchers who Girardi doesn’t trust when they are forced up the ladder into the bullpen.
That’s an organizational problem, not a player problem.
The bench – Not a gray area. They were willing to go into a game with a one-man bench of catcher Rafael Marchan. The Phillies rarely use their backup catcher, so that’s a no-man bench. When Kingery went into concussion protocol, they were forced to put a very expensive commodity into the game with an injured shoulder. Did Harper look like he’s day-to-day?
Not having the necessary depth, an organizational problem. Not having the wherewithal to properly use the lists available, an organizational problem.
And where in the world is David Dombrowski? (I watched a movie yesterday, Lucky Number Sleven, where one of the bit characters was a cop named Dombrowski. I watched the credits to make sure. Turned out they spelled it Dumbrowski.)
I agree with exactly what jim said. I did not like Kapler or Klentak, but they would have been trashed with the mismanaged roster that was supposed to try and win a game yesterday. Didi should already have been on the 10 day IL, and there is no reason that we don’t haven’t added any players. We have needed a right handed hitting bench bat all season and moves have been made all over Baseball. If the 40 Man is so full of great prospects, we should have seen them already. Kingery should not have been called back up, he clearly is not anywhere close to being a contributor, and watching Bryce roll the ball back to the IF, then bunt, then K in the 9th with tying runners on was not only the fault of the GM, and helped lose yesterday’s game, but potentially harmful to the team’s best player. And, if any of this has to do with the Luxury Tax, then shame on Middleton as well. But, I think it is 40 man roster management and DD needs to fix it today. There need to be multiple moves before tomorrow’s game, including the benching of Jean Segura for a game. What nonsense was that? He stunk in the field, and has the nerve to be pissed at Girardi? If Torryes can’t play, release him and sign someone who can.
The one guy I want to see up in the majors.
Luke Williams……… deserves his chance now…since July 2019 in Reading thru last summer and the ABL in the winter, he has been a different player. He nay be a late-bloomer of sorts..
Plays multiple positions.
I think he took his mentor, rocco’s hitting instructions to heart, and started just making contact.
i Am trying to figure out if Maton is a hitter or not, His minor league numbers say no, but he so far has done great, Do you try to move Segura for him or not? Thats my question, And if williams comes up does he play short or third. Bohm to first and Try to move Hoskins? for a couple of bullpen arms
Maton is an anomaly…..usually minor league metrics will be higher for most players, once they reach the majors at the start of their career in the majors…meaning they usually fall a little short of their minor league OPS+, at least until they adjust….his seem to be in reverse. He reminds me a little of the Mets Jeff McNeil right now…at the plate and his defensive versatility…let’s see how long he can ride the wave.
Moving Segura for him….no, not yet…things are too heated. Let things cool down…actually this is good for the team to have these confrontations …now they may have some life.
Williams can play multiple positions…..actually played them all in the minors except catching and pitching….he is an athlete.. star football WR in California HS.
Williams … a late-bloomer of sorts….since July 2019 in Reading,
….342 ABs (including AuBL)……102 Hits….BA of .298.
So the light must have went on for him at the plate.
I agree with you, Romus. Kingery should be replaced on the 40-man with Luke Williams. Williams looks like a solid utility player: can play all over the diamond, decent bat, good base runner, avg or better speed.
I am ready to rip this team apart and put it back together with much better pieces in the majors and the minors. Getting older here, but I might live a little longer if I have some hope with this team.
Denny i hear you, But a rebuild when Romus is almost 80 will not be good for the SOUL OF THE SITE
So had did you do on the 146th Preakness?
Hard to believe Midnight Bourbon came up 3 lengths short of Rombauer.
I wasnt even close , on my other bets
LOL. Then I mean retool.
lol crippled Harper. Gotta love the hysterics!
Did you see the game? Did you see him lob the ball back to the infield with a runner in play? Did you see him try to sacrifice bunt with one out and runners on first and second? Did you see him wince on his swings in the ninth inning with the tying runs on base?
These are things that should not have happened. Harper could have made things worse in his shoulder. He could go from day-to-day to something worse.
These aren’t hysterics. These are facts and possibilities that should never have come to be yesterday.
Jim is the tiki bar open ?
I really don’t understand the hesitancy to put players on the IL and it’s been going on since last year. If a guy can’t hit and a guy can’t field he needs to go on the DL. If it’s one game, fine but I think they outsmarted themselves thinking they could kick the can until Tuesday with Didi.
Didi has been an absolutely dreadful resigning. He has been worth -0.7 wins this year and is batting .229/.266/.364. There’s no excuse why Didi wasn’t placed on the IL immediately after Saturday’s game and Moniak called up. I get he isn’t ready and is probably an easy 0-4 against Robbie Ray but he should’ve been up. They could backdate to 5/12 and we’d get him back on Saturday and by that point hopefully the swelling is gone from his right elbow and they have the extra 6 days to get him right.
I’m sure Harper is fine, he isn’t going to risk his career or season if there was a chance he could hurt himself worse, he was definitely in a lot of pain though.
Hmm, people are clearly frustrated on this site so let’s laugh at the other teams in the NL East:
Lindor didn’t want to negotiate his extension during the season so Cohen ponied up 10 years, $341M. Lindor currently has a .582 OPS and 0.1 WAR. Cohen has to be sweating about this. Gave James McCann 4 years, $40.6M. McCann currently has a .494 OPS and -0.4 WAR. Joey Lucchesi was supposed to be part of their rotation. He currently has a 9.19 ERA and -0.7 WAR. Noted Phillies killer and impending FA Michael Conforto has .692 OPS and 0.3 WAR. If he keeps this up, he may not even get a QO.
Gave Marcell Ozuna 4 Years, $65M. He currently has .647 OPS and 0 WAR. Noted Phillies killer and impending FA Freddie Freeman has declined a lot. He currently has 0.2 WAR (less than Rhys Hoskins). If he keeps this up, he may not even get a QO. Their top prospect Christian Pache hasn’t hit at all. Gave Smyly and Morton a combined $26M and they have given back -0.4 WAR total. Their “ace” Max Fried has really been hit around to the tune of 6.55 ERA and 0 WAR.
Traded for Josh Bell and he’s given them .552 OPS and 0 WAR. Patrick Corbin has 6.19 ERA and -0.5 WAR. Outside of Juan Soto, none of their prospects have panned out. This is just an old team with not much young talent.
The Marlins are the Marlins. Their ownership is content to keep costs low and collect their annual profit and screw over their fans and the city of Miami. Lewis Brinson was a former top 25 prospect (traded in the Yelich deal) and he’s been a total bust.
Whoops, forgot to mention that the Nationals gave Strasburg 7 years, $245M and he’s been hurt most of the season.
Guru … all great/even excellent points. However, no chance Conforto and Freeman don’t get the QOs.
Hinkie….do not think the Braes will QO Freeman…they will probably work out a long term deal of some sort….he is a legendary Brave’s team Hall of Famer.
Conforto….yes agree with you there…. can see that also with Boras as his agent .
Romus … agree. Don’t think Atlanta can let Freemen walk (even though they have a 1B prospect they love). However, if they don’t get that situation resolved by the end of the year/before free agency starts, Freddie gets hit with the QO. So … in a nutshell … the Braves will avoid FA with Freeman. Just saying he is absolutely worthy of the QO.
*Atlanta >can’t< let Freeman walk.
And he was hurt all last season too….he’s part of the Yankees’ Stanton team.
Good post. Very good perspective
This made me feel better, thank you.
Juan Soto has not looked great, he was average against us, felt like a different player.
Phillies locked into Senior MLB players because of Joe’s dislike for a Younger players but Kingery needs to be moved or AAA assignment ( doubt AAA development staff abilities)
Segura 32Yo $14.5M
DiDi 32Yo $28.5M
Bradley 29Yo $6M. OMG
Kingery 27Yo $24M OMG
Anderson 33Yo $4M OMG
Kintzler 37Yo $3M OMG
Torreyes cheap but Younger AAA ready to provide help ave, speed and multiple position
Better than $13M MLB we have currently
I hate hindsight talk. When these deals were made, I don’t think too many people on this site complained about it.
The Kingery deal was made to get a favorable contract on an emerging player. It didn’t work out. But I don’t think the Phillies are complaining about giving 4 years, $45M to Aaron Nola. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t.
Bradley, Anderson, Kintzler were 1 year deals. You take a flyer on these players and you see what happens. If the Phillies didn’t upgrade the bullpen and went with say Rosso, DLS, JoJo, Suarez at the start of the season, people would have went crazy. And if they sucked, then management would have gotten ripped some more.
I don’t want to rehash the Segura deal, enough has been said already.
The Didi deal was unfortunate. He was still only 31, he was a good teammate and he had a good year for us. The Phillies had no young middle infield prospect to promote. If the Phillies gave SS to Torreyes or an unproven Maton, we would have been up in arms, especially if Didi went elsewhere on a comparable deal. Nobody thought Maton was going to hit like this. In fact, as a 7th round pick, Maton is outplaying Keston Hiura, who was a first round pick the same year.
Former Phillies 1st round pick Jesse Biddle has been DFAd by the Braves. Big arm, no control.
I would seriously consider bringing back Biddle. I don’t know what DD thinks of him. I know the former FO (led by Klentak) didn’t think much of him.
Don’t think much of him either. He’s not good.
Easy on the foolish trade talk. Segura has been our best player so just relax there. I’ve watched Williams and I see a super sub and not a starter. Maton has hit better than anyone expected. Reminds me of Stocker in 93. I expect Torreyes to be back up but I don’t think they Dfa Kingery with a concussion. I think they’ll put Didi on the IL retroactively and call up Chatham or Williams after adding them to the 40. I also think it’s time for two pitchers to leave the 40 for Torreyes and Chatham or Williams. Dohy is my guess for one. DLS again maybe for the 2nd.
Dohy is not on the 40.
You’re right, he was already taken off. Depending on JoJo’s arm status, he might go on the 60 day IL. Rosso might be the next guy to go after DLS. I like Llovera and don’t think he’ll be let go.
Agree…JoJo will likely go on the 60-IL….either one of three outcomes…. TJ or PRP or Rest/Rehab.
But cannot see how they cannot put him on the 60.
Jojo is for sure going on the 60. I think the Phillies are waiting for Jojo to make up his mind what he wants to do.
I just read an article that came out on 2 April with the new minor league roster limits for this year. AAA and AA limit is 28 and high and low A is 30.
DiDi provides power off the bench
Segura provides contact
Janakowski and Williams from AAA provides speed, production and OF defensive pluses.
Each thes players could and should give support when needed but Joe will stick with MLB Senior Team.
Good thing the Division is weak “at the moment”
The Phillies are not paying Didi $28M to come off the bench. Like it or not, he’s starting if healthy.
Outside of the squabbling, that’s the best I felt after a loss all year. It feels like everytime they get down 3 runs, the get like 2 singles and a walk the rest of the game. They actually had a little fight (in multiple ways) yesterday.
When (if) he’s healthy, Cole Hamels looks like such am obvious solution. If you remove anderson or moore from the 40 (amd they leave the org) you have no depth behind howard unless you think Medina can start. Nothing. If they are trying to stay under the luxury tax, signing depth is difficult. If you try to put anderson and moore in the pen and start howard, then moore and anderson are in the pen. All this with a reduced workload for howard.
Does this lead to a potential opener situation? Try to get moore and amderson through the lineup once and replace them?
Can you swing a segura for David price trade? With the money and length being similar, it would at least give you innings. Could move Didi to 2nd and roll w Maton. Or a similar type of move. An overpriced pitcher that we can kind of match salaries w
There’s no doubt that the Dodgers would be interested because Gavin Lux hasn’t performed and getting rid of David Price would be icing on the cake. Segura would likely waive his no trade clause to got to LA.
How good would this be for the Phillies? Well, Didi is the issue not Segura. Let’s say that swapping out Maton for Segura is a wash. That leaves David Price and his remaining deal. Not sure how the tax would work if the Red Sox are paying part of his final year. Price is going to be 36 in August and really the value is there only if he can be a starter. Getting Price would likely mean that you’ll lose VV no matter what.
I would pass on this deal.
However, if you feel that Gavin Lux is fixable, you might go something like Segura + cash for Lux and see if the Dodgers might bite.
1. Zero and I mean Zero chance the Dodgers trade Lux this year. They need young, controllable, cheap, high upside players.
2. Why would we want David Price?
First, SP is not our problem. Second, the only thing worse than Price’s 6.13 FIP is his contract. Our only chance to get out of the hole that Almaraz left us in is that this offseason we get Cutch’s contract off the books.
Man, you all love yourselves some BABIP driven, small sample size stat lines.
Luke Williams has a .548 BABIP, with a .109 ISO. meaning his stat line this season is not because he is a “late bloomer”. it is simply a small sample size lucky batting average. meanwhile, his K rate is the highest of his career. To put his stats in perspective, in 2019 he had a .156 ISO and a .292 BABIP.
Luke Williams is not coming to save our season. He is a cup of coffee, utility guy.
His last 342 professional ABs has produced a BA close to .300……he at least gives you some one can make more contact than Kingery.
Plus he has defensive value all over the field….he was never much more than a utility guy anyways to begin….but then again so was Nick Maton prior to a few weeks ago..
You want to get the hot bats up.
Romus i told you that his babbbip and isopi are not good,, But his titio is okay
A .300 batting average in 342 minor league at bats means absolutely nothing. Absolutely nothing. He has no power. And is striking out 28% of his at bats. He also has average speed. He is a non-prospect.
I have to assume you are not happy with the present day Kingery and his production. if so, then why deny a player with defensive qualities and some offense, the opportunity for a chance.
He is not a 20 year old…..25 later this year…so he may have the maturity to understand his limited role, but also a valuable role.
IMO, I want to see new blood…Williams represents new blood on this team…..perhaps a spark like Maton….btw….check out Maton’s MiLB metrics….does not seem to be phasing him any….he was also a non-prospect.
Sure I don’t care. Kingery is a mess. Call him up. But set expectations. Luke Williams is not saving our season. His batting average is babip driven. He has a high K rate and no power.
Come on V1 – you point out that Williams ISO is .109 as a negative but you don’t explain why? Talk about cherry pick stats to try to make your point. The ISO is low because the batting average is .370 and the Slugging % is .478 both the highest in his career. Its obvious you are not a fan but at least be honest with the stats you use to discredit the kid.
“The ISO is low because the batting average is high”??? What?? No. That’s not how it works. The Isolated Power stat is low because he hits a lot of singles. He has zero homers and only 3 xbh in 52 PAs. That’s why his ISO is low.
Come at me all you want, but at least learn what the stats mean before you insult me.
How did I insult you? Because you opt to focus on one stat in a 2 week sample of at bats? Why bother to comment on a player if you are going to highlight what he has done in a 52 PA sample? We all know you believe that what a player does in his early years of minors is what that player is going to be and that you don’t believe that player can be anything more. Read your past posts. You ignore what this player did in AA, especially in the last half of the year and ignore the nice start he has gotten off to in AAA simply because he hasn’t hit a HR yet? Nobody expects anybody from the AAA roster to be a savior.
Ok Oldie. Ok. If you think Luke Williams is a good prospect then that’s your right. I disagree.
He doesn’t need to be a prospect as you may define it to be able to productively contribute. I’m not saying he is – why would you assume that I think he is? Because I disagree with the stats you selectively pick out to minimize the start the player is having to his year?
What is your definition of a cup of coffee guy?
I think that he will get carved up by mlb pitchers. I don’t think that he will be a productive contributor. The only offensive stat that his supporters use to justify his promotion is small sample size, babip fueled. That is luck. He has no power or speed. And strikes out a lot. But I don’t think that I can convince you so I just said, ok. Let’s see how it plays out.
It is not whether or not someone thinks Luke Williams is a good prospect…it is whether or not he can be a replacement for Scott Kingery on the 26…as an utility guy..
Luke Williams is not expected to be a middle-of the order hitter….he would be one’s typical defensive replacement that can offer some offensive production from time to time..
Scott Kingery’s SSS for this season in 19 PAs…..053/.053/.053…. is bad enough, but the fact he cannot make any sort of contact is worse…63% K rate…his Z-contact%….50%….that is too high…he should be in LHV
Like most on the board seem to want….let’s see another player be given a chance.
Ok. Sure. I guess we can try it. But I think that he will get carved up quickly. But Kingery is a complete mess.
And on Kingery…..IMO, DFA him.
Not as a punitive measure, but for the opportunity to open up another 40 spot.
Kingery’s salary and poor production, will still keep him in the Phillies org…as it did Herrera..and maybe an extended stay at LHV will help him.
Dave D. has to be thinking of making moves now….adding and subtracting.
Agreed. I highly doubt someone picks up his contract. And if they do, then great. So seems like an easy way to free up a spot and take pressure off the kid.
You also seemed to ignore his unsustainable.548 babip. Normalize that and let me know what you think about his hitting.
Explain his wRC+, with such a low ISO and unsustain hi- BABIP?
wRC+ is not adjusted for babip. Only for park factors.
Coca-Cola field has rather average to typical park factors…and yet he is 50 points higher than the average AAA player in that league.
Because he has a high batting average that is babip driven.
That’s all we got V1, cup of coffee guys, Juan Valdez recruits them. I would call our minor league shambles, yep that’s what we got, have you checked Reading V1? There might not be anyone that is even a cup of java guy there.
Agreed Skeet. I don’t even check Reading’s box scores.
I am mildly surprised that there hasn’t been a roster move already. v1, I am not looking for anyone to come save the season, I just want someone to replace Kingery. Is it possible that we bring up Spencer, and he teams with Matt Moore or Chase Anderson, and they each pitch 3 innings?
Ynoa breaks hand on bench
Brian Snitker to Ynoa:
:”You know, Ynoa, you no do that no more”
Baffert banned in New York
He may not run Medina or Concert Tour, though do not think they can handle the 1 1/2 mile.
As someone noted, the Kingery contract didn’t work out. It happens.
Interesting comparison between two Phillies:
Player A: most recent 143 PAs, .144/.204/.250, OPS of .454, 47 Ks (32.9% K rate)
Player B: most recent 159 PAs, .220/.247.255, OPS of .522, 45 Ks (28.3% K rate)
Player A is Kingery across 2020 and 2021 so far.
Player B is no great shakes, either, but would be an improvement offensively.
Player B is Velasquez.
Also, I’m thrilled with Maton’s production, but to v1’s comment above, his BABIP so far is .442, more than 100 points higher than he has achieved in any of his seasons in the minors. Normalize his BABIP to .326 and he would be hitting .240, which would be . . . OK.
Looking ahead, a K rate of 30.5% and a walk rate of 2.4% won’t work. That said, he had impressive walk rates in the minors, so that should turn around.
If a player, in a small sample size, has an extremely high babip (.400+), a high K rate and very little power, don’t believe his batting average. It is a mirage.
What is going on with the the injuries?
Huascar Ynoa punches the dugout bench and fractures his hand and he’s out 2 months. Mike Soroka has follow up surgery on his achilles, he’s out the whole season.
Jacob deGrom is on the DL. Taijuan Walker just left the game with side tightness.
Stephen Strasburg has been out most of the season.
Sixto Sanchez hasn’t made a start yet.
I think its the Gas shortrage that is helping all the injuries
And Trout…another calf strain…..ligament/tendon issues abound thru-out the league.
He will probably go o the 10-day IL
I agree with v1again. Williams should have been up just to provide a healthy body at multiple positions. But I doubt he is any difference maker. I think what we all must sadly come to grips with is, even with the front office changes, the Phillies are a second rate organization. No way the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox EVER let such an embarrassing debacle like Sunday happen.
Marlins coming to town. The NL East all beat them, but we don’t. It will be interesting to see if we hit them at all, especially with Harper and JTR hurting. I am surprised there hasn’t been a roster move yet. I expect multiple moves. Joyce and Bradley coming off IL, and there has to be a move sending Kingery to LHV.
Wow step away for a few days and you can miss quite a bit LOL. A few weeks back the problem was CF and Mickey Moniak and Odubel was the answer to all our problems.
I suggested the finger be pointed at DD and Girardi as they were the ones who collaborate on the final 40 man.
Months back I suggested maybe now was the time to trade Nola and not go all in on a catcher. This was a floundering organization then as it is now. I get it Middleton wanted to placate his fan base. He made some very defensible moves. You can even characterize them as good moves on paper.
The end result will be what’s judged and hey there is plenty of time for this thing to still come together for them. Especially given the awfulness occurring league wide.
Another thing I said weeks ago was that this is some of the worst baseball I’ve seen across the entire league.
DMAR…yes recall back in Feb/Mar you saying perhaps trading Nola for a package of top tier prospects may be more beneficial going forward for the org.
I guess if it were certain that Spencer Howard could step right in and pick up the slack in the rotation , that would be something to think about.
But if Spencer H. could be the guy…..then I’d think a team like the Rays would like a Nola with his control and contract right now, well at least thru 2023, his last option year.
Their system is loaded…a Baz, a Wilcox, Walls, et al….doubt they would ever part with Wander Franco.
DMAR, here is a bigger problem. Even if there was any organizational thought to a tear down, there is not a person connected with the team that I would trust to get back elite talent in an Aaron Nola trade. Would I think DD could trade away the Farm for a player to help now? Yes, but the other way around. No one employed by the team has been able to do that. Schilling, Rolen, Cliff Lee, Hamels. We never get a Gleyber Torres or a Trea Turner, or a Jarred Kelenic, never. So, I will pass on a Nola deal.
A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. we did once get a guy name Steve Carlton for Rick Wise.
No question Romus, but Carlton was an established Pitcher, and had a contract issue with the Busch owner at the time. We got Jim Bunning for Don Demeter, and we have made good player for better player trades. But, trading an established player, with the hope of getting elite young talent to rebuild the team, has been a monumental failure. I am trying to think of even one, and I can’t.
This is not easy to do. I remember when the Marlins traded Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers and got back 2 top 25 prospects in Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. At the time, it was a massive haul. Guess what, they both bombed in Miami.
matt13……that is a tough one.
I guess Willie Montanez does not qualify?
How about Gene Freese for Johnny Callison in ’59…Johnny was 20 years old at the time?
Matt I’m not one to say that because of past atrocities in trades that will be the future and as Guru points out there have been many a bad trade for prospects.
That aside you always miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
Some sports writers who cover the MiLB are writing the year shutdown of the minors is making itself known in the horrible play so far this year. Play will improve as the season progresses but sticking with our own franchises HiA and AA have been atrocious..
Once the Phillies signed Harper and Wheeler and Realmuto, the Phillies are going for it. We are 100% not trading Nola unless
1. The Phillies are totally out of it
2. This is Nola’s final year of the contract
Trading Nola will definitely net you a top 50 prospect. But top prospects are no sure thing either. Lewis Brinson was a monster bust. Check out these other names:
Maybe the issue is we have gone sabermetric 😳.
21 YO pitching A ball and on 40 man
0-2 with 14.63 era
8-5 with 4.08 lifetime era
Waste of 40 man slot
You know whose numbers look really good in the early going? Matt Vierling. So far (54 PAs) he has hit .326/.426/.628 with a 14.8%K rate and a 14.8% BB rate, and his BABIP is a reasonable .324
He’s not young for the level, but he’s not particularly old for it either (-0.1 below the average age).
Yes, his home numbers are crazy high, but he has a ,857 OPS on the road, which is not too shabby.
Could he be the CF of the future?
Good post. Balanced.
With those numbers, it could be CF or LF.
Anyways, if he continues hitting like that, he’ll be in Lehigh within the next 2 months. And if he continues hitting, he’ll be in ST looking to grab an OF spot.
WestCoast ….I always like him, another 5th rounder….but he seems to always start hot and by mid-to-late June he runs out of steam or something and begins a downward spiral.
Looks like Phils may be getting Jorge Bonafacio to help in the OF.
Before all you Sky is falling types jump out the window, realize that every division team is in trouble and we’re only 1 game back of a Mets team that will play many doubleheaders to catch up as they’ve play six less games. Long way to go…..
And the Mets may have lost both Conforto and McNeil for 2/3 weeks with hamstring issues.
I want to make it clear that I’m not averse to making deals for prospects.
But I know that prospects fail all the time so when some of them do fail, I’m not hung up on it.
All that matters is that it was fair deal. Whatever happens afterwards, happens (good or bad).
Because of the high failure rate of prospects, I’m not crazy about trading elite players for prospects. You will almost never get value back, even if some of them become starter level.
Reading may not have many attractive prospects….but I want to see how this guy does tonight on the mound,
……..tall and lanky RHP James McArthur…in his 124 minor league innings pitched over three years so far ..but only 20 games starting…he has struck-out 134 batters. Maybe he will soon start to get his mojo back after not pitching last summer.
It appears to me the NL East is going to come down to a battle of the GMs. Things are tight right now, and (barring injuries to one team more than others) will likely remain pretty close for the next couple of months. IMO, the division will tilt to the team whose GM does the best job of supplementing/fixing his team in July. DD sort of has one hand tied behind his back because the Phillies farm system is well behind the Braves and Mets, but I feel a whole lot more confident with Dombrowski making moves than another year of Klentak going dumpster diving.
Dombrowski has won seven straight division titles in years he has started and finished the season with the same club. I think the big question is how does he work around the luxury tax threshold (pretty sure the club won’t go over it). The Phillies’ POBO will probably have to surrender more in prospect capital, and have the team they’re trading with eat money.
For me, this team’s top priority should be reeling in a lock down closer.
Would you give up Yhoswar Garcia, Abrahan Gutierrez, and Jordi Martinez for (2 months and a 16M option of) Craig Kimbrel and (2 months and a 10M option of) Joc Pederson w/the Cubs eating Kimbrel and Pederson’s 2021 contracts?
What if the Cubs insisted on Johan Rojas instead of Yhoswar Garcia?
Would you give up Nick Maton, Francisco Morales, Erik Miller, and Jordi Martinez for Craig Kimbrel and (2 months of) Kris Bryant?
Yes to the first offer and no to the second.
But there’s no way other teams won’t be giving more. If Kimbrel keeps it up, he’ll get a top 100 from somebody. That team option will definitely be picked up by the team if he keeps it up. Joc Pederson, not so much.
Kris Bryant is still ripping. He might get a couple of non top 100 prospects from somebody.
Didi goes to IL and Torreyes is back up.
Kingery to concussion IL.
Archie Bradley reinstated off IL.
JoJo to 60 day IL will have TJ.
Harper is in the lineup today but JT is not.
Bench: Torreyes, Miller, Marchan, JT (not 100%)
Phillies carrying 9 relievers
if JoJo has surgery this month….looks like it could be Aug/Sept 2022 before the Phillies will have him in their pen again.
Seranthony on the other hand ….outside chance he may be available this September for the stretch drive…his surgery was July 2020.
Mets Thor had his in March 2020 and is expected back mid-to-late June
Miller likely headed to Reading and how long if he’s food does he replace Jo Jo’s arm in the pen? I would be surprised any sooner than September. We do have remember Miller was the Instructs Pitcher in 2020. He’s coming, it just depends how quickly the Phillies want to push him since he had shoulder inflammation coming out of ST.
The Phillies are not going to rush Miller, especially coming off injury. Seeing him in September would be crazy fast, something that the Phillies don’t do. This would only be his 2nd year in the system. Best case, he’s in ST and he’ll make his debut later in 2022.
Miller is a possibility for September. In the meantime the Phillies are painfully thin with LHP’s..
Bailey Falter goes tonight for LHV….he is another alternative once he finds his groove,.
Ranger seems to be coming around after his lay-off.
Not sure what Damon Jones situation is.
According to several reports he has struggled with control and command.
Hawk….your autocorrect has to be re-calibrated….”how long if he’s food does ….”????
I think he should be fine now……or they would have kept him in CLW at the Complex rehabbing it…and his highest inning total was in 2019, the year drafted…119 between Stanford and the Phillies org.
I also want to see how he is.
I’m so guilty of post and “oh’ crap.” I’ll do better.
Hey look! That crippled Harper is in the lineup tonight! How about that!
God bless us, everyone.
How did we miss Nick Maton?
Maton’s comp right now is Kevin Stocker, and he got us Bobby Abreu!
And Abreu got us 4 “prospects” from Yankees that were all released by the Phillies.
Not one of Pat Gillicks better transactions….I did think CJ Henry would eventually be in the Phillies infield, but…that is the way of prospects.
Jesus Sanchez was a pitcher that we released after a couple of meh years, then picked up by Marlins, then went to minors, became a catcher and is both in Venezuela now. 32 years old.
Don’t know anything about this, but I wonder if possibly it might be something like Jim’s completely unrelated comment earlier about clubhouse cancer’s. Bobby Abreu on paper was probably the best player on that Phillies roster, but after they traded him the team went on a roll, and started a run that led to a world championship.
Bobby was the best player at the time…but really not a leader……Rollins and Utley were starting to break out into star players and they were going to be the leaders …..I think Gillick did not want them deferring to a veteran like Bobby.
Bobby did like to party around town…..when he was not in his NY residence partying. Picked up his share of gals at Katmandu on the Delaware….him Pat the Bat, each in their own way, liked to paint the town Philly red.
Nick Maton has more upside than Stocker. Maton has a better swing and more power. And while I’m not ignoring things like his BABIP numbers, this guy has a fair bit of the “it” factor – he looks by all appearances to be a winning player. There is definitely something there with Maton.
What a difference a bench makes.
Andrew Knapp’s 8th inning AB was really impressive. He was down 0-2 against Dylan Floro. The take he had on the 2-2 CH (and Floro has one of the best CHs in MLB) was so impressive. Knapp’s andAB allowed Maton, Torreyes to do their thing.
… and the happiest guy in CBP after that bottom of the 8th was Jose Alvarado.
TBH I thought the morons that ran in to the field gave him a breather after 15 pitches and no outs lol.
Definitely changed the mojo. Go figure
Man, that crippled Harper went 2-5 last night.
You made your point, just move on.
I don’t understand what you are getting at King. Playing Harper was a mistake. The whole roster maneuvering before yesterday has been filled with mistakes. No one said he was crippled, but he could have been hurt worse by throwing the ball, which he lobbed, or swinging the bat. Just because he wasn’t hurt worse, does not change the fact that the Roster management was poor, and DD and JoeG deserve criticism. Lucking into Harper being ok does not make a bad decision a good one.
Playing Harper last night was not a mistake, and it certainly was not a “bad decision” by Girardi. Get a grip. Harper is a warrior and the only mistake would have been it sit him out of the game.
P.S. Did you happen to notice his at bat in the 8th inning? Res ipsa loquitur.
Phillies’ defense….very poor.:
Phillies 26th in majors in DRS with negative 10,
…….first in baseball are the Nats at positive 26,
…….Mets 5th at positive 17,
…….even Marlins are 12hth with a positive 9,
…….and Braves 20th with a positive 5
Rogers has only given up more than 1 run in one of his last 5 games.
I’m impressed. Above average arm, solid mechanics, has a good feel for pitching.
Sounds like we still need a couple more relief pitchers.
Cornelius Randolph going 5 for 5 today, he’s been on a nice tear lately, good to see. Watched a little of him in the ABL and was surprised that the play by play had good things to say about him. Would be great to see him turn things around.
Was Rogers a great pick in draft or product of development. Braves seem great at development. As an example NE Patriots draft good athletes and develop them into their position and win with execution. Braves take arms and turn them into pitchers. Till Phils clean house of minor league development get used to a mostly empty cupboard
The Marlins seemed to have hit on pitcher Trevor Rogers, who was #13 overall in 2017. This was after they whiffed on pitchers Braxton Garrett (#7 overall in 2016) and the infamous Tyler Kolek (#2 overall in 2014).
In general, a starting MLB rotation will have around 1-3 in house drafted pitchers. The rest are filled from trades, FA, and international signings.
What does that mean? That means there is a lot of failed drafted pitchers. All teams will have this, including the Braves and the Marlins.
Love how people try to make it seem like the phillies are not bad at drafting, THEY STINK, yes teams miss, but look at the braves in latin market besides the draft, Where is our great latin player, where is are Soto,?? As long as middleton is in charge we wont win,
Look rocco…we got two hopefuls in Muzziotti and Guiterrez…..one from the Red Sox and the other from the Braves.
All the Phillies need to do is hope teams keep getting penalized in the international market and we can sweep up their retribution signings.
I look at the Oriole’s few years ago…….traded away all their international ‘money-credit-line’ for prospects….then signed guys ate the standard price outside their bonus allotment number. They did not do that well.
If the LA draft comes in the future, that’ll level the playing field and obviously help the Phillies.
If you want to cherry pick about what some other teams do well, then I’ll tell you what the Phillies have: according to Cot’s a top 4 payroll (something that the Braves or Marlins will NEVER have). The Phillies have their share of home grown players (Hoskins, Bohm, Nola, Maton) and they’re probably above average when it comes to trades (Eflin, Realmuto, Coonrod, Alvarado).
Sure, the Phillies are not the greatest when it comes to LA talent. But Sixto Sanchez got us Realmuto. People don’t want to see it, but Neris has been solid for the Phillies for his career. Seranthony Dominguez (before he went for TJ), Ranger Suarez. Not flashy, but they’ll help the team.
I’m sure Braves fans are pissed about why their team can’t spend $100M+ on Wheeler or $300M+ on Harper…
Tough loss yesterday as the Phillies were shut down by an emerging pitcher. But the beauty of baseball is that there is usually a game the next day.
Even though the Phillies are only 1 game over .500, they are actually in decent shape. Only 1 game behind the Mets. The injury bug really hasn’t hit the Phillies that hard. The only starting players that have an OPS+ under 100 is Didi and Bohm. Maton has filled in admirably. The current starting rotation has a total WAR of 5.7 which is pretty damn good. The relievers have been a lot better from last season.
Alec Bohm’s current dWar is -0.8 which is really bad. He’s on pace to match Rhys’ dWar of -3 when he played mostly LF.
The Phillies will have no choice but to move him off 3B. He should be playing LF in ST next year. Or if the DH comes in, he could take 1B and Rhys could be the DH.
Guru……not sure how long after this season the Phillies will leave Bohm at third.
His inconsistency is an issue…..a great play, and then there is that on a bad occasion, the fumbling of a rather routine play.
Phillies do have options like you posted if they do move him off third.
And maybe a LF spot will help his plate performance since he does not have to be as concerned about what he does in the field and can be more comfortable.
I think Maton is going to force their hand a bit too. The Phillies will not be picking up Cutch’s option so there’s going to be a spot in LF. Maton will need to play every day, so move Bohm to LF, Jean to 3B and Maton to 2B in 2022.
If Kyle Schwarber can play LF, then surely Bohm can. And you figure that Bohm’s range will be at least decent in LF.
Whoa, Romus. We have no idea if Bohm can play LF. None. And there is a good chance his hitting would be negatively affected since he would need to spend an inordinate amount of time learning to play a new position. And this is coming from me, probably the first person on this list who said two to three years ago that Bohm wouldn’t be a major league third baseman.
Best case is the DH comes and Bohm rotates with Hoskins as a 1B/DH. Otherwise, Bohm stays at 3B as the other in-house choices are not good.
This is why position changes don’t happen during the season.
If the Phillies decide to move Bohm to LF, they’ll tell him in the offseason so that he can prepare for it. Then he’ll get some reps in ST. Then we’ll see what happens.
For what it’s worth, Fangraphs has Bohm as a positive dWAR – and I have no idea which is correct, although the eye test suggests he is below average.
That said, if he can be close to average at third, which is possible, it makes him much more valuable, so I expect him to stick there for at least the medium term. One way or another, Bohm’s future is as a hitter, so he needs to continue to develop at the plate, which I believe he will.
I agree with Fangraphs. I think Bohm is fine (though, not great) defensively at 3B.
I don’t know how anybody can say that he’s positive dWar. His range is not great, his reaction time is not great, he can’t handle slow rollers. The only positive is he has a strong enough arm for 3B. Even his accuracy is not that great (balls into the ground for Rhys to dig out).
It makes me appreciate how good Placido Polanco was at 3B.
Well, three responses.
First of all some of the stats say he is above average or average. I tend to think he’s a little below average, but there’s some “neutral” support for this position.
Second, I do think he continues to improve and could for a while. It’s not that hard for me to see him being perfectly okay at third – it could happen.
Third, his job is to hit and if he hits he can hover around average in the field it will be fine and is better than taking him to left field – at least until the moment a hot shot third-base prospect is ready to come up and take the position or there is a hole in the outfield. Let’s not move him down the defensive spectrum until we need to do that.
@Catch, fair enough. Obviously his best value is at 3B and he could improve to the point where he’s relatively 0 dWar. But it’s rare that he will improve to be consistently positive dWar, and that’s what I think the Phillies will have to live with.
NL….you can take most infielders…sans first basemen….and put them out in LF and they will be fine…..they have that quick-twitch muscle memory from playing infield.
We know he has an above average arm when compared to most LFers.
I think he can do it.
Romus i know you have my address, I think its you who has been knocking at my door and running away. I keep getting up and No one is there, pls stop,
Alright done…..though, it was funny while it lasted.
Regarding Bohm’s dWAR, I believe that Baseball Reference includes a positional adjustment when calculating the metric. I do not know if FanGraphs does this as well. If not, then FanGraphs is saying that Bohm is an average glove at 3B when compared to other third basemen, while Baseball Reference is saying Bohm is a below average glove when compared to all fielders regardless of position. I don’t know how useful a positional adjustment is. Do you really care how Bohm at 3B compares to Segura at 2B?
I would not put much stock in any one defensive metric – they are too volatile, which diminishes their utility. For example, as of today according to Fangraphs, the Phillies for the 2021 season rank 29th in DRS (-22), ahead of only the Angels. But if you look at UZR (2.9) they come in at 13th and if you look at Def (4.6) they are 11th. So are the Phillies atrocious in the field (yea, sometimes) or are they middle of the pack?
spin….you got me spinning now.
SABR SDI is not yet out…mid-season I think they have a report that comes out….then their final in October…another yet defensive measuring tool
romus – there are far too many acronyms to keep track of, especially since the same metric might be calculated slightly differently depending on the on doing the calculation. Ugh, metrics should be standardized so that it doesn’t matter who puts pencil to paper, everyone comes up with the same (flawed) number.
Phils stink at picking and development. Proof is high payroll below .500 team. Never have developed pitchers. Competitors bring up young arms to fill spots we pray VV will turn the corner.(maybe before 35 yrs old). Who is the can’t wait to see prospect in minors. Abel who is 4 years away maybe?
Patso….last 15 years….starting pitchers developed in the minor league system …some took 3 or 4 years or less…others more than 4…. Hamels, Myers, Nola, Howard (?), Eflin, J. Happ, Kendrick, Worley…..Sixto
Pitchers that have spent time developing in their respective minor league systems and are in the starting 5:
Mets (deGrom, Peterson)
Phillies (Nola, Eflin)
Marlins (Their entire starting 5 because they don’t want to spend money on FAs)
Braves (Fried, Huascar, Anderson)
Nationals (Ross, Strasburg, Fedde)
Now if you want to remove the ones that have zero or negative pitching WAR, you get this:
Phillies (Nola, Eflin)
Marlins (Rogers, Lopez, Alcantara)
Braves (Huascar, Anderson)
That looks like development to me. And hopefully Spencer Howard will be part of that list soon enough.
As a note, before the season the Mets traded away Steven Matz (who was a former 2nd round pick) because of uneven play and cost considerations.
Here is something else to consider with defensive metrics and positional adjustments.
Baseball Reference uses the following:
C = +9 runs
SS = +7 runs
2B = +3 runs
CF = +2.5 runs
3B = +2 runs
RF = -7 runs
LF = -7 runs
1B = -9.5 runs
DH = -15 runs
C = +12.5
1B = -12.5
2B = +2.5
SS = +7.5
3B = +2.5
LF = -7.5
CF = +2.5
RF = -7.5
DH = -17.5
I do not know how those values were determined, but I do not agree with FanGraphs assessment of 2B, 3B, and CF as being equally challenging.
Many are close….but the disparity between catching and first base seem to be too much of a delta. Apparently BR does not value catching and value first base more than Fangraphs.
You are correct just too many and too far different.
Professor Romus – Do you think Hall and Listi will shake their slumps or is this the end of their careers with the Phillies.
ciada…..sadly with my guy Darick Hall….may be time to move on to another team if the opportunity presents itself..
Listi…..just not quite sure what happens ..he can play many positions …not at a Gold Glove level, but he will not embarrass himself.
Now, no sooner than me posting that….they will probably go into a Cornelius Randolph explosive surge
Jean getting the day off with Miller getting the start at 2B. Odubel up to the 2 spot.
JT still out, last played May 15 (now will miss 4 games)
Bohm at the 6 spot, he probably should be hitting 7th. We passed the quarter mark for games, he needs to pick it up.
The Mets are decimated with injuries so they had to call up 23 year old Khalil Lee from AAA. Why is this interesting? He had 8 ABs and struck out all 8 times. That has to be a record right?
This team slays me, you just never know what will happen next! Now appearing behind door #3, David Hale, subbing for the “blister”. Amen!
1. Hope the numbness isn’t a sign of something wrong with his elbow.
2. Why David Hale over Matt Moore?
Hale is going to have us 3 innings. Same with Matt Moore. It’s lucky that the Phillies are carrying 9 relievers
Hinkie…after the 2017 season Vinny had the numbness…..underwent TOS, more or less….he said he had that thoracic outlet syndrome, but it wasn’t really labeled thoracic outlet syndrome. They removed his first rib…size of a pinky finger
Cornelius Randolph just homered off Jerad Eickhoff.
On the Bohm conversation of the day, which of course included mentions of Rhys. I am not one to say, I told you so and after this post you will never hear that again from me.
When Rhys was at Reading, I go there numerous times a year, I reported his defense wasn’t good. Remember citing he could have had 3 errors in one game except for a benevolent scorekeeper. He can’t catch. Most responders on here to my post, oh he’ll be fine or you are “full of the contents of the privy”.
Last time for what I’ve said before, BOHM is not a 3rd basemen. Never will master the position. Put him at 1B or if you think he can play LF, which I do, put him there.
Last but not least, I have learned to temper the glowing reports of our minor league draft picks and Latin American signings as more often than not they don’t come to fruition. Never make it to the show, more often than not, just a “fart” in the wind.
I think Matt Moore must lead the league in 92 MPH FBs right over the middle of the plate.
Just a heard a fight broke out in the Miami dugout. Multiple Marlins trying to make it to the bat rack first for a chance to hit against Matt Moore.
Recent memory cole Hamels and Nola only draft pick pitchers Phils developed and hopefully Howard. Sorry don’t have time to research but seems kinda week to me. Like Nola but can’t imagine he would be horse in playoffs seeing how he starts to leak oil late in season
Marvelous Marlins Mastery over the Phils continues. 3 louse hits, 2 by bench players and 1 by a guy they don’t want to be here. Go figure.
…..,,,1 run in the last eighteen innings!
When we play bad, we play bad.
Alex Bohm’s career WAR is -0.3. That’s our top young talent.
Buddy, don’t you mean that AB’s WAR THIS year is -0.3 not career WAR? But that said, even with “20 20” hindsight I don’t think I would have chosen anyone different than last year’s runner up for Rookie of the year. Who would you have chosen?
Just a ridiculous comment – implying that he will never be a good player.
But let’s do this. Let’s get really impatient with Bohm and trade him to the Cubs for some middling talent like David Bote and a middle reliever and then watch Bohm make 7 all-star teams for the Cubs – how does that sound to you?
I mean, we already gave the Cubs Ferguson Jenkins and Ryne Sandberg – we’re overdue for another gift.
He would be the gift that keeps on giving.
Nobody implied anything. Two facts. 1) His career WAR, and 2) he is our best prospect / young talent. My point has nothing to do with trading him or being impatient with him, I’m just saying it’s a damning state of affairs for this org when -0.3 WAR is your top guy.
BP ERAs are inflated like last year including Bradley and Kinzler. Red Sox are pounding the ball and who do you think they play next? Sox love to hit in Philly, especially Devers.
Back to that oh’ so comfortable feeling of .500 baseball for the Phillies..
Looking at the reliever situation, it’s not that bad. Neris, Coonrod, Alvarado, Brogdon, Hale (long man) are not going anywhere. Ranger Suarez has started his season well so he’s staying. Bradley is going to get some leash because of the money he’s making. That leaves Kintzler and Moore. At this point, Moore is probably the second long man which most bullpens do not have. He’s likely the first to go.
Mauricio Llovera has started Lehigh extremely well. He really hasn’t been a reliever for that long. He’s already on the 40.
Damon Jones looks to be transitioning to reliever also and he has also performed well at Lehigh. He’ll probably need more time to develop because historically, his walk rate is quite high. He’s already on the 40.
So we do have some bullpen depth to choose from in the minors.
I call them bodies, not depth.
Nobody is going to have reliable depth in the minors because of the costs involved. And if they were good, they likely would be on the ML roster already.
The Phillies couldn’t ask for any better luck than finding themselves in the middle of the most average division in baseball. Still think the season is going to come down to July, and which club’s GM/POBO shines the brightest.
Gotta’ believe Dave Dombrowski will do whatever he can to bring in a lock down (at least more dependable) closer. That list includes:
Josh Hader (if the Brewers fall out of contention)
After that, Dombrowski could look to juice the lineup with a bat (probably, but not necessarily) on an expiring contract. Any/all of these guys could be available:
Or another SP under team control thru the 2022 season (or beyond). Someone like:
Not saying DD is going to trade for all of these guys. Just saying one or two of these players added to the Phillies roster could be the difference in their first postseason berth in a decade, or another year on the outside looking in.
Today is 5/21. Realmuto last played 5/15. I guess the medical staff thinks he still needs a full week.
Spencer could be the shot in the arm this team needs….i can see it now…Brian Kenny, MLB.netwrok…..”.Phillies kid phenom surges Phillies to the top of the division” .
Last night’s game was just brutal to watch. So boring, more defensive bad play, 15 Ks and we are in the hunt in this terrible division. I agree that Dombrowski can make a difference with mid-season/deadline moves. Kimbrel or Hader and Pederson? Hinkie’s list is a good one. Spencer replaces Anderson as tomorrow night’s SP
Back to debating if Nola is an ace. Who knows for sure but after an inning he’s thrown 23 pitches and is down two zip with Devers doing the main damage.
This is the first time in a while where Aaron Nola pitched scared to JD Martinez and Bogaerts. For whatever reason, his velocity is down and his command is spotty.
McCuthen is really having trouble seeing the ball in the outfield. Problem with allowing more people in the park is that the booing is much louder. Phillies have two more games with the Sox at home and then three more in Boston.
There is no debate, he is not an Ace. The best SP on the staff is Wheeler, and he isn’t an Ace either. I am a Nola fan, but why pretend he is something that he is not? Compared him to DeGrom, same level? Not a chance. We could use an Ace, but we don’t have one.
Man, watching VV come out of the bullpen and pitch, it’s incredible how much better he looks now than the beginning of the season. He has a good pace, he’s confident, and he looks like he knows he can get anybody out.
I had to turn the tv off. As bad as it was yesterday, it feels just as bad today. The error spotlight on Bohm and Cutch is bright, but Harper’s play in RF has been equally as bad. Sure, he has a cannon for an arm but that’s about it. He’s having serious issues tracking the ball and today was no different. I think it was in the Marlins series when he completely lost the ball, and it fell inches foul. I don’t know what’s going on with these guys. I hate to admit it, but he could be a legitimate -1 dWar player. Today’s play was just brutal.
To me … it seems Harper’s shoulder is still bothering him. He shied away from the wall when he was tracking that ball in the 9th(?) inning. As a matter of fact, he seemed to even instinctively quickly reached for his shoulder right after he brushed the wall. I believe Girardi screwed up in Dunedin having Bryce enter that game last weekend. He may have made his shoulder worse taking hacks trying to tie/win that game with 2 outs in the 9th inning.
Hinkie – I agree, something is not right with Harper. I have never seen him play tentatively in the field. It is usually the opposite, he is usually overly aggressive.
Also, in the 57 PA since taking that 97 mph fastball off his face, he is striking out at a 35% clip v. a 20% clip before getting hit, and he’s hit only 1 HR since then.
I was at the game. Definitely something wrong with Harper. And at least one of the balls at the wall in LF Cutch should have caught.
And, much more importantly (ok, hyperbole), the food at CBP, which has been in decline for years, is really a problem now, especially if you can’t digest wheat safely.
Don’t they have gluten-free at some of the concessions?
if not…someone needs to let them know.
It’s not open now. And the food there has been inedible. At a normal Campos you can get a gluten-free bun, but not at the CBP location. Harry the Ks isn’t serving food, something you can’t tell at the Phillies web site; I could normally find something there. You used to be able to get salads at a couple of places. Now it’s pizza, cheesesteaks and burgers, and that’s it.
Ok…did not realize that the menus have been reduced or cut back.
In the old days could get a hoagie/sandwich from one of the outside places and bring it in…..they should let people do that again since the food choices have been slimmed down.
I can still here Archie and Edith singing ………..those were the days my friend, I thought they’d never end………those were the days!
I have been going to all the teams over the yrs, I only once had ff, cause a friend of mine worked the concession. I always get peanuts and diet soda only, I rather eat before at a pesto’s or after celebrese
Funny you asked that, i knew the guy who owned, he died, big time gin player, my cousin works there, but i used to go for the crab cakes ,But now i am allergic to shellfish, so i like pesto pasta better,
Before the games we would hit it for the blackened salmon…..not the most inexpensive place around , but the food was very good and the ambiance was delightful….plus clean bathrooms..
Transaction wise, the Phillies will have some decisions to make in the next few days.
Spencer Howard will be coming up, who’s going down or getting cut?
Roman Quinn will be starting a rehab assignment soon, another decision will have to be made.
Frankly I would release a Chase Anderson and cut my losses since there is really no future there but it probably does not matter. Whoever they release or trade fir minor leaguer ( most likely scenarios unless they can put someone else in the 60 day) will end up with someone else and probably be a better starting pitcher or reliever then the Phillies have at their back ends.
I hope I will see the day like the early 2000’s where they actually develop players again. Dombo needs to clean house again in player development and the minor leagues.
Please use this as an example, Remhoward, Ibecause I personally do not know that Driveline is being implemented in the Phillies minor leagues, but I do know that some of the top personnel selecting the minor leaguers changed pretty recently….. how long should one take to evaluate a new system or manager before deciding that it is time to “clean house”, and what criteria should be used to separate the simultaneous moving parts?
Spencer officially called up, Moore on 10 day IL so Spencer could be activated for tonight.
FWIW Todd Zoleski, and Matt breen in yesterday’s Philadelphia Inquirer, quoted DD as Spencer being the starting pitcher today/Saturday with a 60-pitch limit
I hope like hell that Howard is successful with this call up but let’s not get too carried away. Last year he got knocked around on a pretty regular basis. Remember how he’d been strong for a couple of innings and then lose his velocity?
I’m not going to expect too much from the young man so if he falters, I won’t be upset. Especially debuting against a hitting machine like the Red Sox could be a recipe for disaster. I really hope not.
With restrictions loosening, hope Mr. H can be at CBP for tonight’s game.
Hinkie i cant imagine the thrill a dad gets to see his son play MLB baseball, I know the kid next door to me is now at triple A and his dad is going nuts,
Spencer’s losing velocity just as he did last year. Very discouraging because he’s become a better pitcher for sure – but if his FB sits 91 or 92 by the fourth inning, he’s a relief pitcher. I hope this stops, but I’m not seeing the evidence of that right now.
I saw the velocity drop too and it’s disappointing. He was cruising and then he lost his release point on his fastball and then it snowballed. You could see his confidence go as the inning wore on. Look, he’ll get more starts but that velocity drop, they need to figure that out. I’ve been watching baseball a long time and I’ve never seen a drop that drastic over 3 innings.
Reminds me of ethan martin
Yes….Ethan Martin had some medical issues with the shoulder that deterred him…his velo dropped from mid-90s to hi-80s.
Did Howard experience the same velocity drop in the minors? it’s really concerning.
I also think the Phillies put him against a beastly line up, which didn’t do him any favors.
Yeah, rocco. He’s got to be very proud and excited. My niece’s son got drafted two years ago. He didn’t sign. He’s pitching in college now. I know they were very excited just to have their son drafted. It’s got to be even more thrilling to see him in the big leagues.
Does Howard really have the make up to be a MLB starting pitcher? I think we have all seen him enough to say probably not. Maybe they need to start turning him into a power reliever. I do hope Harper is hurt (hate to write that) because he is sucking big time!
It’s got nothing to do with make-up. He has that. It has to do with losing 5 MPH on his FB by the 4th inning. This is pretty self-apparent folks.
Howard I would think is pretty pleased with his outing, although Phillies fans might have hoped for more. He exceeded his pitch of 60 a bit, and did very respectably against arguably one of the best teams in all of MLB! Obviously this team needs a rookie to have stuff better than Steve Carlton in 1972, and also pitch twice more frequently than he did. But…… If Mick Able does as well in a couple of years, the home-grown relievers like Suarez continue to do well, and the new drafting people continue to try to “grow the arms”…..
This team just isn’t a good team, I was so wrong about this year. Thought we’d see a team who was hungry and wins 90 games. That’s not the team we have (or are seeing) and the worst part about it is, can ANYONE see the future being brighter? Unfortunately, i just don’t see how anyone can paint it as anything but bleak. At this point I wouldn’t mind a complete tear down, there’s literally not one player who should be off limits, not one, including Nola, Wheeler and Bohm. Harper (And JT) must have conversations after games about what horrible mistakes they made (outside of the money of course) signing and re signing here. Manny Machado sure as hell looks to be the smart one.
No tear down yet with Dombrowski but he may have to trade some of our better players like a Nola to remake the team to compete in next year or two. Last year it appeared Red Sox might need couple years to compete with not a great farm system. Always thought Dombroski would use this year to put his plan in place. He has tough job ahead of him.
Watching Howard Last night, I only have one Question, Can he pitched two nights in a row? He had electric stuff until pitch 27 i believe was his first drop in velo, if i am not mistaken, If his best role is relief pitcher I don’t see anything wrong with that, not saying he cant be a starter, but to tell me his drop in Velo was because he ran to first is nuts, His fastball does explode at the plate, looks like it just blows by guys, and he can pitch high in the zone, which i like, i thought he showed a really good change up, I can wait until the draft, because the reading team is so bad it need the guys from New Jersey blueclaws to get there, Guys like Tatum, Brito. Guthrie, have shown nothing and unfortunately need to be released
rocco…..you do need to keep guys to fill out rosters.
And Brito may yet come around….he could be the next Luke Williams! 🙂
Eric D is right. If ownership was focused on the right solution here rather than winning now, this would be a complete tear down and rebuild. To me, there are 3 options, from most to least likely to happen.
1. A Dombroski shake up / retool
2. Keep this team in tact and try to add around margins to make playoffs
3. A complete rebuild
I think we’ll see guys traded we never imagined in the next 60 days but not prospects for vets or vice versa, value for vale type deals where he tries to shake up the team.
This team is a mess. Bohm is not a 3B playing 3B. Rhys is a DH playing 1B. Bryce is a very good player making more money then his value dictates now and that equation will not get better over the next decade. Aaron Nola is an ace who’s not an ace. Spencer Howard is the 5th starter who will never be more than a really good reliever. Lots of square pegs and round holes.
I’d start over. Pending FA’s I’d definitely trade at this trade deadline if you could get value of any kind: Cutch, Odubel, Bradley, Neris, Coonrod, Miller
Big Moves I’d Consider at deadline or offseason to bring back needed young talent: Bryce, JTR, Wheeler, Nola, Bohm, Howard.
Guys Open To Trading: Segura, Didi, Rhys.
The guys I’d keep and build with – Eflin, Maton, Alvarado, Brogdon, Suarez, Knapp/Marchan, Velasquez.
This will never happen and likely wouldn’t work because a) the players above don’t have nearly the value to other teams we wish they had and b) teams value prospects much higher than either aging, market priced or higher talent or flawed potential, which is really all we have in this organization after a decade long rebuild.
2012 – 2028 Phillies are going to be a repeat of the 1984 – 2000 Phillies, we just haven’t had the 1993 yet. That is the reality.
I understand the frustration. In a vacuum … yes … a total tear down & rebuild would be the wisest road to take. But … for multiple reasons (long postseason drought, keeping fan interest, spending the $ they have on Harper/Realmuto/Wheeler, and hiring DD), that’s never going to happen (and I’m not saying Buddy is expecting a teardown).
There’s still 116 games left in this season. Every other team in the division has warts (the Braves less than everyone else). And … there’s also a chance that this could be rock bottom for the Phillies. Obviously, gotta’ hope nothing is physically wrong with Harper and Nola, and they can both get themselves straightened out soon.
I trust Dave Dombrowski to put his thumbprint on the club this summer (and this winter). If the club can stay in contention for the next five or six weeks, I’ll be excited for what the POBO has up his sleeve for July.
Here’s the thing tho Hinke and I agree that others have warts however the others have bright futures, young guys who can really play. We don’t have that and we don’t have that coming. That’s what’s so depressing. this years team, imho is the team we’ll see for the next handful of seasons (at least). I mean that in terms of talent level, not the names, obviously new players will come and currents ones will go but how can this team really be built to win with what’s on the team now and what’s in the pipeline? It’s complete and utter mediocrity.
You would make VV one of your pieces, I stopped reading after that name,
Dombrowski + Girardi = try and win next couple years than complete dumpster fire. Dombrowski has some good chess pieces but like I said has work cut out for him. Say goodbye to what little depth there is in farm system. Try to clear some $$$ and maybe go over luxury next year taking expensive pieces off cash strapped teams may be the path. But he will need to trade some of Phils better players maybe this deadline
Try and win then they will hold yard sale
Phillies are starting Wheeler and as expected, Harper is sitting for Brad Miller.
Red Sox are sitting Verdugo, Martinez and Bogaerts.
If the Phillies can’t win today with this gift, then we’re in serious trouble.
There won’t be a teardown so people need to get off the ledge.
The only players I can see getting traded right now if the Phillies are out of contention are:
Segura (if he waives his no trade)
Hoskins (less so if the DH is coming next season)
None of the above players will get you a top 100 prospect.
Cutch/Didi/Bradley are not performing so not sure why anybody would want them.
Forgot to mention VV. He might get something interesting.
We know there won’t be a tear down, and that’s what scares me. I just don’t see what kinda course correction can be made with out a tear down. We’ve seen this before, hanging onto winning by a thread and making dumb moves instead of tearing it down when it should have been.
What’s next year going to look like? Seriously? What will be different? Just a year older with the “core” and adding another vet past their prime.
Guys need to play better, plain and simple. Cutch is likely to get replaced, and it’s 50-50 right now if Odubel’s option is picked up. You’re betting on a rebound from Bohm, Didi, and Nola to a certain extent.
Spencer Howard lost velocity in the third inning because his heart rate was high from running to 1B. A 24 year old athlete with a high heart rate from running 90 feet…..just wow
Probably could have used 2 or 3 more minutes for recovery.
Some pitcher will just sit in the dugout until the last second and then walk out very slowly to the mound, and then begin their warm-ups.
Right Buddy, W O W! I guess that’s why Satchel Paige said, “Never run when you can walk”!
I completely understand why Ronald Torreyes is on the bench. He has a decent glove, he won’t embarrass himself at the plate, he can bunt, he’s a gamer. He understands his role and is willing to do it.
The probability of the Phillies picking up Odubel’s option just went up to 60%.
Wheeler has just been dominate this year. Really hope trader Dave can get them some help, would be a shame to waste the year he’s having.
Wheelers paints the 96 -98 MPH fastball like a wizard.
When Wheeler was a FA, Gerrit Cole got all the publicity and Wheeler was under the radar. How a pitcher that had back to back 4 WAR seasons can be under the radar is beyond me. The Phillies pounced and gave him a very aggressive offer and we’re reaping the benefits.
He does not give up many hits, especially doubles….’No-doubles Wheeler’ 🙂
Any more questions about who’s our number 1 SP? I remain a Nola fan, but Wheeler has far out performed him.
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