2021 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – April 23, 2021

This is the Phuture Phillies forum for the discussion of prospects eligible for the amateur draft that is scheduled to be held in less than 2 months (July 11-13, 2021).  You can place video, scouting reports, or just comments here.  You can reference these weekly discussions on the menu above.

Feel free to discuss the 2021 international signing period, too.  It began on January 15, 2021, and runs through June 25, 2021.

This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and international signing period.  This is NOT a place for you to complain about past picks/signings or the organization’s past/current draft and international philosophies.

58 thoughts on “2021 Discussion in Preparation for the Amateur Draft – April 23, 2021

  1. Hinkie on 4/22:
    Another updated draft prospect list. This one from MLB.com.
    I’m getting excited for what the Phillies can do with their first few picks because of the depth of this year’s draft. It’s deep (even if many of the players available are a little older) because the 2020 event was only five rounds. Lots of guys returned to school.

    *drumroll please*

    We’ve expanded our Top Draft Prospects list to 150 … and there’s a new No. 1: https://t.co/fFLHQZazon pic.twitter.com/VQCwgxiJm6

    — MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 22, 2021

  2. DMAR on 4/23:
    I still like Cusick. If I had the 1:1 it would be Rocker or Lawler for me. I know Leiter is the darling and what’s not to like but I’m a size guy.

    1. Hinkie on 4/23:
      I’d like to see them draft Cusick (could be another Tyler Glassnow) or especially Bachman (really like all three of his pitches) . Don’t know if they would … but … I think either of them could throw out of the Phillies’ BP later this summer. They then could be sent back into rotations next spring.

      Drafting a HS RHP in the first round two years in a row is extremely risky, but Chase Petty and/or Jackson Jobe are such unique arm talents, I’d be excited for either of them too.

  3. Thanks for the new thread, Jim.

    Fabian’s current ranks:

    KLaw … outside the top 50
    MLB.com … #49
    Kiley McDaniel … #34
    Baseball America … #17
    Joe Doyle (Prospects Live) … #72
    D1 Baseball.com … #15 college prospect

    Seems like a decent chance he’d be there at 2-49 for the Phillies if they think they could solve his problem hitting the breaking ball.

    I know you just draft the BPA, but (all things being equal) I’d love to see that second round pick spent on another pitcher. Preferably a lefty: Anthony Solmeto, Joe Rock, Ryan Webb, and Matt Mikulski are all options.

    1. Hinkie…if Solometo is there in the 2nd …I’d nab him….but Fabian is also interesting.
      After handicapping him…..his peripherals are not that bad…ISO, rather plus…. he has power, BB rate is also very good…..plus his BABIP is below .300……so it is a true slash, not much luck, more un-luck for him, of cours except the swing and miss aspect of the K rate..
      And what I did not realize ….his age….he is one of the youngest college eligible draftees…..he does not turn 21-years old until a MLB team’s Fall Instructs.

      1. They did draft Casey Martin last year (in the third round, but paid him second round money). Martin and Fabian have similar K-rates.

        Fabian 25.3 career, 31.3 jr season
        Martin 24.1 career, 30.98 jr season

  4. Hinkie…it seems like a lot of college position players are struggling this year. I was a huge fan of Fabian, Morsiette, and Binelas. They have all really struggled.

    1. Yeah, Tony. The crop of college hitters (as a whole) is down this year. I liked Morissette a lot. He’s been battling injuries this season. That could be an excuse for his performance so far. If he’s still available at 3-84, I’d think long and hard about drafting him there.
      Binelas, BTW, has really gotten hot lately. Don’t think he’ll be able to handle 3B as a pro. Maybe he plays LF or 1B. That will have a negative effect on his draft status.

  5. Gunnar Hoglund was scratched before his Friday start against LSU because of bicep stiffness. We’ll see if this is a short term thing, or if it’s a lingering ailment that could possibly slide him down a few slots to put him in play at 1-13.

    Elsewhere …

    Jordan Wicks … went 6.2 IP, 3 R, 5 H, 3 BB, 11 K vs WVU. Wicks is now at 62 IP, 57 H, 19 BB, 84 K, 3.48 ERA this season.

    BTW … WVU used another top draft eligible southpaw in that contest. 6’7″/210 lb Jackson Wolf went 8 IP, 3 R, 6 H, 3 BB, 10 K for the Mountaineers.

    Ty Madden … went 6 IP (122 P), 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 12 K in a win against Okla St. In 2021, the Longhorn’s “ace” has now totaled 64.1 IP, 41 H, 22 BB, 77 K, 1.68 ERA.

    1. Ryan Cusick … totaled 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K Friday night vs Clemson. The Wake Forest RHP has registered 46.1 IP, 42 H, 23 BB, 74 K, 3.11 ERA this season.

      Sam Bachman … is (IMO) the best outcome for the Phillies at 1-13. The Miami, Ohio flame thrower looked very good again this weekend. He went 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 11 K vs Kent St. The 6’1″/220 lb RHP is now 33 IP, 14 H, 9 BB, 54 K, 1.36 ERA this year.

      1. The HS baseball season is now underway in most parts of the country. There are some very impressive prep arms available.

        * Andrew Painter … took the mound last week, and went 6 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 4 BB, 13 K, as he combined with two teammates to no-hit Belen Jesuit. This season, the 6’6″/210 lb Florida Gator commit has totaled 38 IP, 16 H, 13 BB, 74 K. Here’s some video of Painter from last summer’s Perfect Game Summer Showcase event.

        * Jackson Jobe … has almost unanimously overtaken Painter as the top prep pitcher for this summer’s draft. The 6’2″/190 Oklahoma RHP was lights out in a game this past week when he also combined with a teammate to toss a no-no.

        1. The two top prep arms in New Jersey were stunningly good this week.

          * Chase Petty … drew all kinds of attention this week when he dominated Holy Spirit HS (the #2 ranked team in the state) with 100+ MPH FBs and disgusting SLs. The 6’0″/185 lb RHP went 7 IP, 0 R, 1 hit, 3 BB, 13 K. Check out the crush of scouts behing home plate while you admire Petty’s “stuff”.

          * Anthony Solometo … kicked off his season coming this close (holding my thumb and index finger almost together) to throwing a seven inning no-hitter. The 6’3″/215 lb Bishop Eustace funky southpaw went 6.2 IP before allowing a single. In all, Solometo totaled 7 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 11 K. He featured 92-93 FB, low 80s sweeping breaker, and got two of his Ks with his CH (scouts have wanted to see a third pitch so good for him).

    2. As the weather is heating up Wicks could also be heating up.
      He seems to have corrected himself from his earlier starts in conference games.

  6. Very thorough draft rankings from Prospects Live.

    1. They rate Del Castillo, Fabian, Stovall and Solometo all 2nd rounders…Phillies may be able to obtain an excellent choice at the 49th slot.
      IMO…if Solometo or Fabian are still there ..I would take one of them.

      1. How exciting is it to have a second round pick for the first time in four years (Spencer Howard in 2017)?

  7. Game two of Chase Petty’s senior season was even better than his dominant first outing (although he didn’t hit triple digits this time). The Mainland HS RHP no hit Millville HS (Mike Trout’s alma mater) yesterday afternoon. Petty went 7 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 BB, 18 K (he also belted a 2-run homer). After two outings, Petty has totaled 14 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 4 BB, 31 K.

  8. Jud Fabian … went from a projected top five pick to a probable second rounder over the first half of this season. However, things may be turning around for the Florida Gator CFer. A few weeks ago, Fabian made a slight change to his swing (wider stance/less leg shift/more controlled swing). The results have been very positive. Over the last 9 games, Fabian is slashing .412/.512/.971. And during the past 15 games, he has a K-rate of just 13.6%, that’s a far cry from the 35% K-rate Fabian was sporting earlier in 2021.
    The Fabian comeback came to a crescendo on Saturday when Florida faced Jack Lieter and Vanderbilt. The 6’2″/190 lb RHH walked once and homered twice in three plate appearances against the likely 1-1 pick this summer.

    Overall, Fabian is now up to .267/.370/.615 this year.

    .

    Matt McLain … is the other college hitter who is in the process of refurbishing his draft status. The UCLA SS also recently adjusted his swing (now using a greater launch angle). The 5’11/180 lb former 1st round pick has hit 7 homers in his last 14 games. During that span, he’s slashing .442/.537/.942.

    McLain is at .333/.441/.593 this season.

  9. Jim … you can just trash the my post (above) awaiting moderation. I forgot about the two link rule. I’ll just break up the post into two comments. TIA.

    .

    Jud Fabian … went from a projected top five pick to a probable second rounder over the first half of this season. However, things may be turning around for the Florida Gator CFer. A few weeks ago, Fabian made a slight change to his swing (wider stance/less leg shift/more controlled swing). The results have been very positive. Over the last 9 games, Fabian is slashing .412/.512/.971. And during the past 15 games, he has a K-rate of just 13.6%, that’s a far cry from the 35% K-rate Fabian was sporting earlier in 2021.
    The Fabian comeback came to a crescendo on Saturday when Florida faced Jack Lieter and Vanderbilt. The 6’2″/190 lb RHH walked once and homered twice in three plate appearances against the likely 1-1 pick this summer.

    Overall, Fabian is now up to .267/.370/.615 this year.

    1. .

      Matt McLain … is the other college hitter who is in the process of refurbishing his draft status. The UCLA SS also recently adjusted his swing (now using a greater launch angle). The 5’11/180 lb former 1st round pick has hit 7 homers in his last 14 games. During that span, he’s slashing .442/.537/.942.

      McLain is at .333/.441/.593 this season.

      1. Here’s how some of the college pitchers who could be in play for the Phillies at 1-13 made out this weekend.

        * Jordan Wicks … went 5 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in a Kansas State blow out win over Texas Southern on Saturday. This year, the Wilcats’ LHP is 67 IP, 60 H, 19 BB, 92 K, 3.36 ERA.

        * Ty Madden … was a winner Friday night when he led Texas past Texas Tech. The 6’3″/215 lb RHP totaled 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 7 K.

        This season, Madden is 69.1 IP, 46 H, 25 BB, 84 K, 2.21 ERA.

        * Ryan Cusick … faced a tough NC State squad this weekend. The 6’6″/230 lb Wake Forest RHP went 6.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 H (4 were HRs), 0 BB, 9 K.

        So far in 2021, Cusick is 52.2 IP, 49 H, 23 BB, 83 K, 2.44 ERA.

        * Sam Bachman … suffered the loss when Miami, Ohio fell to Central Michigan. Bachman went 5 IP, 2 R, 2 H, 4 BB, 6 K. He’s now 38 IP, 16 H, 13 BB, 60 K, 1.66 ERA this year.

      1. Yeah. If his new approach/mechanics becomes a permanent thing, Fabian could work his way back into a top 15 pick. He’s still got two months to prove himself. His power is real. And his defense in CF is at least above avg.

  10. Anthony Solometo news …
    The South Jersey southpaw was outstanding in his second start of the season. On Saturday, the Bishop Eustace LHP shutdown Don Bosco Prep from North Jersey (#2 ranked team in the state).
    Solometo threw a five inning no-hitter (10 run mercy rule). He totalled 0 BBs, 1 HBP, 11 Ks (seven swinging) in front of four dozen MLB scouts.

    1. Hinkie……Solometo and Fabian will not be there in the 2nd for the Phillies….not sure they will want to select them at 13 either.
      Bothers me that small market teams can get these Round A selections after the first round (31 thru 36)……Marlins….. Tigers…….. Brewers….. Rays……..Reds…..Twins.

      Reds in fact get three of the first 35 picks…..their own at 17…Bauer FA loss @30 and then Competitive Balance pick at 35….and the slot money to go along with it.

      Come on man…..give me a break.
      The commissioner has his hands in every thing else….why not straighten out the draft.

  11. Romus … with ~2 months to go until the draft, things can shift, but right now, it looks like Fabian is likely to be gone before the Phillies would have a shot to draft him in the second round. OTOH, I think Solometo isn’t out of the question. If Brian Barber likes him enough, the team could promise the LHP an inflated over slot bonus to help slide him down their way. There’s a ton of pretty good older college players available this year because of 2020’s truncated affair. The Phillies/any team could overspend on a couple/few picks, and save money on a handfull of those day two 22 and 23 YO players.

    BTW … here’s the latest rankings for Fabian and Solometo. The Phillies pick at 2-49.

    Fabian:
    MLB.com … #49
    KLaw outside … the top 50
    Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) … #34
    BA … #28
    Prospects Live … #41
    D1 Baseball.com … #15 college prospect

    Solometo:
    MLB.com … #55
    KLaw … #23
    Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) … #55
    BA … #61
    Prospects Live … #44

  12. Chase Petty was at it again today. The Mainland Regional HS RHP authored another dominant complete game: 7 IP, 1 H, 17 Ks. He also delivered an RBI Double an RBI triple with the bat. ~30 MLB scouts saw Petty showcase his plus SL. His FB was a little lighter than his two previous outings (94-96 MPH).

    .

    BTW … Petty is now also getting some love from Marcus Stroman. That’s pretty cool for the 6’0″/185 lb Millville native.

  13. Mock draft from Mason McRae.

    .

    1-10 Mets … Sal Frelick
    1-11 Nats … Ty Madden
    1-12 Mariners … Ryan Cusick
    1-13 Phillies … Chase Petty

    .

  14. Here’s the latest on some top draft prospects.

    * Sam Bachman … was nearly untouchable vs Ohio U this weekend. The Miami (Ohio) RHP flame thrower went 5 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 9 K, and was up to 99 MPH. Bachman has registered 43 IP, 17 H, 14 BB, 69 K, 1.47 ERA this year, and should be one of the top draft targets for Brian Barber and Dave Dombrowski this July.

    * Ryan Cusick … threw against out-of-conference foe Elon on Saturday. The 6’6″/230 lb Wake Forest RHP went 6 IP, 5 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 11 K. This season, the Massachusetts native is now 58.2 IP, 54 H, 25 BB, 94 K, 4.14 ERA.

    * Jordan Wicks … was not sharp in a Kansas State win at Baylor. The 6’3″/220 lb LHP threw 5.1 IP, 3 R, 10 H, 2 BB, 4 K. Wicks is now 72.1 IP, 70 H, 21 BB, 96 K, 3.48 ERA in 2021.

    * Ty Madden … helped Texas top TCU. The Longhorn RHP went 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K. The one time Roals 34th round draft pick has totaled 75.1 IP, 51 H, 28 BB, 89 K, 2.27 ERA this year. Madden has been dealing with blister problems for the past couple of weeks. The issue hasn’t caused him to miss any starts, but it has affected his velocity, and the shape of his breaking ball.

    Speaking of health issues …

    * Gunnar Hoglund … had to leave his Friday night start after totaling just 0.2 IP, 3 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 K. Initial reports say the Ole’ Miss RHP left with forearm soreness. He’s scheduled for an MRI later today. This is the second recent health scare for Hoglund. He missed a start a couplr of weeks ago with a bicep problem. Today’s MRI will almost certainly have a direct impact on the Phillies pick at 1-13.

    Another injury to a highly ranked draft prospect to report.

    * Matt McLain … has a broken thumb, and could miss a few weeks. The former first round pick is slashing .325/.432/.578 for UCLA in 2021.

    1. One last thing.

      Jud Fabian … continues to rehab his draft status. Last week, I mentioned the Florida CFer has recently made an adjustment to his swing (smaller leg lift and stride w/two strikes … similar to what Bryce Harper does) that has helped cut down his Ks. Over the weekend, the 6’2″/190 lb RHH Gator went 4 for 9 (double & 2 HRs), 5 BB, 1 K vs Kentucky. Fabian has upped his slash line to .273/.390/.636. His 18 HRs are the second most in NCAA D1 baseball. The dearth of college bats this summer has to have the Phillies reconsidering Fabian at 1-13.

        1. Well, Romus … Jim Callis mocked the little BC CFer to the Phillies last week.

          .

          And this morning, Kiley McDaniel has Brian Barber picking HS CFer Benny Montgomery. LOL! I had been putting together another Phillies mock this weekend where they take Montgomery at 1-13.

          1-10. Mets … Matt McLain
          1-11. Nats …. Jackson Jobe
          1-12. Mariners … Ryan Cusick
          1-13. Phillies … Benny Montgomery “Montgomery is one of the bigger risers in recent weeks as high-level scouts have been running through to see the unusually high dozen or so notable potential early-round picks at northeastern high schools. Montgomery had a quirky hand pump in his swing but otherwise was an elite prospect over the summer. He’s now toned that down a bit, letting his above- average contact skills and speed stand out.”
          1-14. Giants … Colton Cowser

          1. Yes Hinkie i saw that….was going to send it to you earlier.
            I doubt Frelick falls to thirteen….he also has Fabian at 25…..but he is climbing.

            1. McDaniel has Fabian at 21 (Cubs) and Anthony Solometo at 27 (Padres). He leaves Chase Petty out of his first round.

  15. Another one bites the dust. Too bad for the kid. So much can happen over the next two months. The draft is so fluid.

    1. rocco … Hill hits the upper 90’s with a plus SL and above avg CH. Before the season, I thought he could end up the 1-1 pick, but he struggled in a few games with his command, and then blew out his elbow. I’d use the Phillies second round pick on him.

      1. Hinkie…do you really think Hill or Hoglund will get pass the first round?
        Even if they get pass the first 30 picks….those Round A teams …they will jump on them before the 2nd round..
        For them it is like they are playing with ‘house money’
        So unfair, IMO.

      2. Hinkie….I am willing to bet one of these teams will grab Hill or Hoglund….30. Marlins, Tigers, Brewers, Rays, Reds or 35.Twins

        1. Romus … I think Hoglund will still go in the back half of the first round. He was excellent this season before his injury. His velo ticked up to mid 90s. Lots of Ks. Very few BBs.
          I think Hill has a better shot of going in the second round for a few reasons: longer history of injuries, has more of a track record as a reliever than a starter, and his numbers were more ordinary this year prior to TJ (K/9 only 7.6). Hill’s arm talent will still almost certainly earn him a first round bonus (2.5M – 3M) even if he’s picked in the second.

          1. I just checked Kiley McDaniel’s mock from today. He has Hill taken at 1-23 by the CWS. McDaniel believes Hill will get a 3M – 4M bonus. So … what do I know? Apparently, not too much. But we’ll see what happens.

            1. There are still dozens more mocks coming…I would not go by any particular one right now.
              I can see the Rays taking one of them at 33, if they last that long.

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