Open Discussion: Week of January 31st

The Phillies made several moves last week only to have MLB steal the spotlight over the weekend when their sycophant water carriers in the media started leaking the terms of their latest proposal to line the owners’ pockets with playoff revenue.

The Phillies started the week by releasing about 15 minor league players.  They followed that with the addition of a starting pitcher when they signed FA LHP Matt Moore.  Then most fans’ prayers were answered when they re-signed JT Realmuto and Didi Gregorious.  To make room on the 40-man roster, Cole Irvin and Kyle Holder were traded for cash and RHP Ian Hamilton was DFA-ed.  They also signed Ivan Nova to a minor league contract with a spring training invite.

Lots of changes to the Payroll and AAV balances this week.  I’ll keep updating until opening day or the 26-man roster is set.

With Moore, Realmuto, and Gregorious in and Hamilton, Irvin, and Holder out, the Phillies’ running payroll to $171,915,962.  This includes eighteen players under contract plus an estimate for eight players under team control with 0-3 years experience ($5.6M).

The Phillies’ salary against the competitive balance tax is $186,278,782 and includes estimates for the rest of the 40-man roster ($2.25M) and player benefits ($15.5M).  With a CBT threshold of $210M, the Phillies are around $23,721,218 under the tax threshold.  (see spreadsheet)


MLB presented the MLBPA with their latest scheme to cheat the players out of money on Friday.  A response was expected by Monday.  Anticipating that the MLBPA would decline, the MLB unleashed their dogs in the media with the MLB version of the discussion in a repeat attempt to garner public favor.

What the national media fails to stress in their reports is that there is no reach a new agreement.  The current CBA already addresses everything regarding the start of the 2021 season – when spring training is to start, when ST games start, when the season starts, the length of the season, the number of off days, when players get paid, …  You know, all the stuff that is normally covered in a contract.

The association is not required to negotiate or even say anything more than no.  But, the MLB’s water carriers in the national media are already reporting the aspects of the “offer”.  In fact, they were in such a hurry to get the story out, they reported a key portion incorrectly.  Initially, the report stated that players were to be paid their entire salary in a 154-game season.  Later that was corrected to they would receive pro-rated salaries over a 154-game season.

There were other things leaked that were intended to make the “offer” seem reasonable.  Finally, the expanded playoff was mentioned with no explanation on how revenue would be divided.  This has always been a sticking point.  The association has said that they would not consider any “offer” that included expanded playoffs.  But, the owners are relentless.

The  MLBPA will likely decline the “offer” on Monday.  And, baseball will begin in two weeks as agreed upon in the CBA.  (Sorry if this rambles.  It’s late and I’m tired as I write it.)

I think February 1st is a deadline for two other events.  One is the acceptance of the PDLs by the affiliates who received them from their major league parent organizations.  The other is the announcement of the medical requirements, staffing, roster size, and other important items regarding the start of spring training at the complexes in some sort of bubble.  I had heard 60 players, but that doesn’t seem like enough – the 40-man, NRIs, and players headed to AAA at the end of camp.  Probably be a good deal more.

FWIW, I think the Phillies are done on the free agent market.  Accept its existence or not, I think they are very close to the payroll limit that Middleton set (and probably reset when he hired Dave Dombrowski).  They have maybe like $3M available and don’t seem likely to go to $5M to sign another reliever.  So, I think it’s ridiculous to criticize them for not pursuing a trade for a player they were never going to make.  Unless, of course, you live to criticize their every move so that you can say, “I told you so”.

This is the Phuture Phillies Open Discussion for Phillies and other baseball topics.

Key Dates:

  • February 14, 2021 – Report date for major league ST
  • February 17, 2021 – First ST workout
  • February 27, 2021 – First spring training game v. Blue Jays
  • April 1, 2021 – Opening Day for ALL 30 teams
  • April 2021 – ST for Double-A and Single-A begins
  • May 2021 – Opening day for Double-A and Single-A
  • June 25, 2021 – Close of the 2020 international signing period
  • July 11-13, 2021 – 2021 Amateur Draft

The rosters and lists are up to date as of January 31st … 324 players in the org

Transactions (newest transactions are in bold print)

1/30/2021 – Phillies traded INF Kyle Holder to Reds for cash
1/30/2021 – Phillies signed FA SS Didi Gregorious
1/30/2021 – Phillies traded P Cole Irvin to Athletics for cash
1/29/2021 – Phillies designated RHP Ian Hamilton for assignment
1/29/2021 – Phillies signed FA LHP Matt Moore
1/29/2021 – Phillies signed FA C JT Realmuto
1/29/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Ivan Nova to an MiLB contract
1/27/2021 – DSL Red released CF Miguel Tejeda
1/27/2021 – DSL Red released RHP Yeison Sanchez
1/25/2021 – Reading released C Henri Lartigue
1/25/2021 – Jersey Shore released OF Tucker Maxwell
1/25/2021 – Jersey Shore released CF Yerwin Trejo
1/25/2021 – Jersey Shore released C Jesse Wilkening
1/25/2021 – Jersey Shore released RHP Seth McGarry
1/25/2021 – Williamsport released RHP Jake Kinney
1/25/2021 – GCL West released 3B Luis Rojas
1/25/2021 – GCL East released SS Jose Mercado
1/25/2021 – GCL West released 2B Jose Rivera
1/25/2021 – GCL West released C Kevin Escalante
1/25/2021 – GCL West released RHP Lizardo Herrera
1/25/2021 – GCL East released 3B Jevi Hernandez
1/25/2021 – GCL West released LHP Austin Crowson
1/25/2021 – GCL East released RF Luis Matos
1/25/2021 – LHP Hunter Milam retired
1/25/2021 – DSL Red activated RHP Yeison Sanchez from the restricted list
1/25/2021 – DSL White released RHP Elias Liriano
1/25/2021 – DSL White released RHP Alexis Herrera
1/22/2021 – Braves claimed OF Kyle Garlick off waivers from Phillies
1/22/2021 – Braves claimed RHP Victor Arano off waivers from Phillies
1/20/2021 – Phillies assigned FA RHP Bryan Mitchell to Lehigh Valley
1/20/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Bryan Mitchell to an MiLB contract with invite to ST
1/19/2021 – RHP Mike Adams assigned to Clearwater Threshers
1/19/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Mike Adams
1/18/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP Archie Bradley
1/18/2021 – Phillies designated RF Kyle Garlick for assignment
1/18/2021 – Red Sox traded SS C.J. Chatham to the Phillies for a Player To Be Named Later
1/18/2021 – Phillies designated RHP Victor Arano for assignment
1/18/2021 – Phillies signed FA RHP David Paulino to an MiLB contract
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA OF Yemal Flores
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA C Rickardo Perez
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Marco Soto
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Leonardo Rondon
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA OF Raylin Heredia
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Yemil Rosario
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA C Dervin Andrade
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Daniel Mejia
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Juan Melendez
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Julio Hereaux
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA C/OF Solardo Rodriguez
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Deivi Cabrera
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA RHP Joset Aparacio
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA OF Jorge Garcia
1/15/2021 – Phillies signed IFA SS Alfredo Alderete


411 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of January 31st

  1. I think they’ll sign another SP on a minor league deal and I do think they’ll sign another RP. I also think they’ll try to trade Vinnie to lower their payroll to cover the cost of those additions. There’s also a bench job open. The DH possibility is still alive apparently and with it, the need for another bat. Jay Bruce coming back is still possible I suppose as they could use a left handed hitting power bat who can play 1b and LF.

  2. I was correct, jim, when I said I must have been missing something in the report. The report was inaccurate. A real good indication that the upcoming CBA negotiations will be brutal and a work stoppage is most likely going to happen. Also, the team may be done adding, but I still criticize them for having a salary cap that isn’t $210M. We need another RP, for sure, bench help, and probably another SP.

    1. Matt13, watch DD to go over the remaining free agents and bargain bin shop. If for the right price a reliever or starter’s price drops he may jump on it. Likely to be another Minor League signing or 2 plus there will be teams that will have a roster crunch and may trade someone.

      Surprised to see Lartigue and McGarry be released.

    2. I wish these reporters would just stop printing leaks and wait for an official announcement. On Hot Stove this morning, Rosenthal (who posted a report on the leak Sunday) presented the “full pay for 154 games” rumor again. Now, I’m not sure which is accurate.

      I am sure that the union won’t agree to anything that includes expanded playoffs because they have stated that all along.

      So, until we hear otherwise, everything starts as negotiated in the CBA.

      Side note: I’m not surprised that Rosenthal thinks the season should be delayed a month. That’s what his MLB handlers want. But, Harold Reynolds was adamantly in favor of the whole agreement. I’m surprised a former player would break ranks. Either he just doesn’t get labor issues or he sold out to the entity that pays him.

  3. I’m seeing many reports the Rockies and Cards are going to complete a trade of Arenado. It says Nolan will get an additional $15 million tacked on to his deal for accepting the trade.

    It doesn’t say who the Rockies are getting in return. It does say substantial cash is going back to the Cards in the deal. I imagine that sweetens the prospect return.

    I can’t wait for the season to start. Maybe this team can be a lot like the 93 team.

    1. DMAR;;;Arenado Trade:
      “If the initial reports are accurate, this is one of the most lopsided trades in baseball history. It will go down in history as one of the worst trades ever made by a MLB team on behalf of the Rockies. It’s almost unfathomable.”……..former big league manager Jim Bowden, the Cardinals’ acquisition of Nolan Arenado.

      Nothing is official, but multiple media reports suggest that LHP Austin Gomber , first baseman Luken Baker and outfielder Jhon Torres are the most likely candidates to come to Colorado in exchange for Arenado.

      1. I guess it all comes down to Arenado’s performance outside of Coors field. Long term deals rarely if ever work out for clubs on either end.

        Monfort took a shot. He missed. He has a history of doing that for fan favorites out there. The Central is completely up for grabs now so the Cards are looing to take a measured chance.

        I know nothing about any of those prospects but who knows now maybe they can extend Story for a lot less and try building around him.

        Or maybe he learns a valuable lesson which is doling out these types of contracts to players whos performance might be inflated due to the Coors field effect will end up burning him in the end.

        1. Torres……will be top 100 after this season more than likely…he looks like a real stud RFer…but young
          Bukan…at 280 lbs and strong…..Alonso power, and slow afoot it appears…swing and miss however can be an issue
          Gomber…after the biceps and shoulder issues has come back strong velo is now 92-93T94…could be a starter in their rotation this season….GB% upper 40s

          Looks like s steal for the cards….especially if none of the three materializes.

            1. Yes but Stanton had injury history which Arenado doesn’t. With that said that contract may look like an albatross on a couple years.

            2. Whoa, I know I didn’t say that. The Marlins pawned him off at the right time after his MVP. But Stanton is a big guy and before his MVP season, he was already getting hurt. And you know that Stanton is NOT going to get healthier (or his range get better) once he ages into his 30s.

      2. Jim Bowden is praying this trades takes the trophy away from him for the worst trade of all time

      3. I have to say that I really like Arenado and it could work out great for the Cardinals, but I think Bowden’s statement is overboard. Fangraphs ran projections and, even with the salary adjustments (Colorado paying $50 million), the trade would be roughly a wash without prospects. Now, yes, I think those projections were quite low and yes, it was a coup for the Cardinals to get that kind of salary relief, but the trade is much closer than you would think because Arenado’s salary does not match up with his projections, meaning that his contract had no value on the open market (if it had, the Rockies wouldn’t be paying a dime), much like Manny Ramirez’s contract had no value when the Red Sox offered waivers on him early in his career and there were no takers.

        1. It’s not the worst trade ever. Do the Cardinals win this trade? Of course, he’s Gold Glove caliber every year. But his numbers outside of Coors are good not great. I don’t think we’ll be seeing Arenado doing consecutive .900+ OPS years anymore.

  4. Matt Winkleman was questioning those and I put myself in that camp who suggested bringing the same team back does little to improve our 2021 chances.

    He made a point to call out this isn’t the same team and he would be 100% correct. As much as it feels like the same team from the position player standpoint the BP is going to look much different and 4-5 in the rotation could be much different.

    Perhaps Bohm’s OPS+ of 136 for an entire season is enough when coupled with what Joe G said about the BP performance last year cannot be that bad if you told the hitters what was coming next.

    Hard to tell with a truncated season how much of that performance good or bad translates to a full 162.

      1. I would not bet that the BP can be that bad again. It seems next to impossible.

        That said CF is a problem, LF is a problem and 1B is a pretty big ?

        1. I would put Vinnie Velasquez in the bullpen give him the closer role and go from there with Bradley, Alvarado and Nerris setting him up. Or Joe G can do a closer by committee, which I think can work too.

    1. DMAR….concerning Bohm….it is unrealistic to think he will carry a .410 BABIP thru 150 games. Pitchers will adjust and he he will have to also.
      If he can finish with a wRC+ of 130/135 with that adj.OPS+ in that same area then great. That could make a difference.

      1. I agree Romus but I don’t worry about Bohm handling adjustments. I expect him to be consistently good a lot like JT. Maybe not great in MVP type status but just always there.

      2. The team was 22-22 in the games that Bohm played. As you pointed out, he had an unsustainable BABIP.

        The key really is whether the MLB PA approves of an 8 game playoff. If it goes back to a 4 game playoff, then we have zero chance of having a better record than the Padres.

    2. DMAR, I agree with you and Winkelman. I’ve written it here. Perspective. Two months ago there were cries about not having (or even going after) a bold GM, not spending any money, losing JTR (and thus wasting Sixto), needing Didi back, never being creative in deals or taking risk for upside, and not enough focus on hard throwers. Each box is checked. I understand there might still be gaps to our rivals but the progress lately is encouraging. I also feel it’s foolish to just look at names on paper and conclude it’s the same team.

      Hoskins… had re-found his stroke and confidence, and if he can rekindle it early in the season he will be a huge difference maker.

      CF …I’m a believer in Haseley (and also don’t rule out Moniak forcing his way into the’picture).

      Quinn … may be a significant weapon! A) he did not have a serious injury last year. B) He was 12-for-12 in SBs in covid shortened 2020, all from Aug 12th on! (He’s 20-for-20 over past 2 years). It seems Joe G trusts him.

      Eflin. Could be a serious #3! 2020 career bests in era, xFIP (3.23!), whip, GB% (47.4%!), Hard% (24.5%), K% (28.6%), k/bb (4.67!). Yet endured his career highest babip (.344 – next highest was 3.09).

      Bohm …I believe he will endure some growing pains but I also believe a full year of Alec is another difference maker for the 2021 team.

      BP …first, it can’t possibly be as bad for law of averages. Second & more importantly it’s better! Bradley alone makes it much stronger! Alvarado *might* be another huge help. The young arms of Romero, Rosso have upside. There’s more hard throwers coming in system. …And Jose Alvarez might become a critical lefty for us. In 2020 he set career highs for FB (92.7 avg) and Sinker (91.9).

      PLUS, don’t underestimate Joe Girardi entering his second year in the org, on the job with these players. I’d call him a difference maker too.

      1. John K…I am with you on Eflin…have been on him for 3 years now.
        A pure pitcher and knows how to sequence his pitches to keep batters off guard.
        His height and reach make his sinker that much more effective coming from that angle. Hopefully this season he keeps up his progression and production and then gets the national recognition.

        1. I’m interested to see how Brogdon looks as he really seemed to be finding his way at the end there. Hoping some other young arms can step up as well.

          I worry how much of a drop off Bohm will have since he was outstanding but hopefully others can pick up. Kingery needs to get going, i’ve always liked Quinn so I hope he can do better while staying healthy.

          The big question mark to me is how the SP does in the #4/5. As Howard was not very good so if he can come and and light it up that would clearly be huge. Then there’s Moore who will be very interesting to see how he does. If that’s how the top 5 shake out.

          Then of course it’s the pen and how the new pitching coach does.

      2. Well, look who fell out of the optimism tree this morning. All is right in Mudville!

        Personally, I think this team is the third best in the division and would face a tough challenge to become second wild card team. This team needs expanded playoffs this year in the worst way.

        1. Ha. I’m an admitted optimist. I preach patience and believe we need to continue to see how this offseason ends as I don’t think we’re done.

          I understand the 3rd place and 4th place predictions. Believing for better! It happens all over sports where a team just makes tweaks and it finally kicks into gear! …Or it falters even more. I’m hoping for the former. 🙂

      3. Quinn is not a significant weapon! A .213 avg. and K rate of 33% and the rest of the time hitting fly balls is not a significant weapon. Marry that with 5 walks. Only way he’ll score runs is pinch running.

  5. Jim, will the Phillies announce their ST roster or will it be one of those deals you have to get out the binoculars and write down numbers and names? I know you wrote that the rosters will be announced today but I wasn’t sure if that was just for internal Phillies personnel edification. .

    1. I wrote roster size, not rosters. I’m sure the Phillies will be secretive, as usual. I’ll probably know most of the roster before it is released. But, I’ll also probably be sworn to secrecy by some of the sources. I don’t know how ST will be run, but it makes sense that the guys expected to compete for roster spots will work out in Spectrum Field, Bowa Field (the half-field in front of the west entrance ticket offices), Ashburn Field, and Schmidt Field. Those are the fields closest to their Spectrum Field clubhouse and are the fields they use traditionally. That should include most of the 40-man roster (if not all) the NRIs that were invited as part of their FA signing this winter, and a fair amount of the internal NRIs.

      Those invited who are ticketed to start the season in Allentown with little to no chance of making the big club would then be able to practice on the two open fields, Carlton and Roberts, as they have in the past. Or, if they are going to use all fields for the major leaguers, they could stagger the report times and have the second group start later in the day.

      If only a few people show up for ST, I may stand outside the fence and point my binoculars at the players and report on the workouts. I’ve even considered trying to view Schmidt Field from the shoulder of Route 19. But, I haven’t had my shot yet. I’m not going to stand among a crowd of tourists and put me and my family at risk. And, I know a few people who have already come down or who are coming down even though the Complex will be closed to them.

      1. I wasn’t sure if the Phillies might announce the ST roster names.. Sounds like that’s a no. Thank you…

  6. Jim,

    I know you have a lot going on but any chance you can update the 40 man roster link? I checked out with all the recent comings and goings and saw it was from 6/20/2018.

    1. Yeah, no. I keep three files up to date above. Two of them have the players listed, one with extensive player info. Both indicate who is on the 40-man. I’ve deleted the menu option with the old information.

  7. As things stand today, how can we look at us as any more than the 3rd place team? And, I am being optimistic in thinking we are better than the Nats or Marlins. We have a chance that Rhys starts the season healthy and becomes more consistent. Ee can hope Bohm continues what he showed us despite a book on him. Let’s say he is good enough to adjust. LF and CF are big issues, the back end of the rotation is a big question mark. And the BP is hardly fixed. Sure, it’s hard to duplicate “historically bad”, but we need more. Maybe we are saving money for moves at the deadline, but that requires a lot to go right to even be close enough to add in July. And, how can DD not make a big trade? It is part of who he is!

    1. Matt I guess you have to also examine ways that things could go south for the teams perceived to have a leg up on us.

    2. matt13…..maybe he will go in on another reliever …..Colome, or even former Shawnee HS ‘s Sean Doolittle who could also strengthen the pen.

  8. I would like both if them, Romus, also Rosenthal, but he may be too expensive. I was just reacting to jim’s saying we were done in FA. We can overachieve, sure, and the Braves can be hurt by losing Ozuna a lot more than I think, and the Mets could do Mets things and screw it up, but I would still like more Pitching.

    1. matt13….this is my guess on relievers and their cost for a one year contract:
      Soria ($3M),
      Melcanon ($4M)
      Colome ($6M)
      Jeremy Jeffress($3M)
      …some seem very manageable …..but how they perform is still in question, plus you will to need to open up a 40 spot for that reliever signed.

      1. I’m assuming that your numbers are your assigned value to each pitcher. Let’s say that is their market value, and they are each asking for more. So, if I’m close to being right, then there are five $3M pitchers and three $2M pitchers available. The Phillies have time to wait until one of the pitchers comes down to their number. And, yes, I’m thinking of a pitcher whom the Phillies offered x and who wants x+2.

        1. Yes, the longer unsigned, the lower the AAV for the contract.
          They will feel the pinch to get a contract.
          But a lot of the lower price guys…IMO, a Brogdon and/or Romero may do just as well.

        2. I’m kind of expecting the team to bring back David Robertson on a minor league deal.
          I like Sergio Romo on a cheap deal.
          I’ve posted a few times that Chasen Shreve makes a lot of sense as a healthy, veteran LHRP who has a relationship with Joe Girardi and Caleb Cotham from their time together with the NYYs, and whose “splitter” allowed him to K 12.2/9 IP last season, and gave up just 2 H’s in 34 AB’s to LHHs.
          Matt Gelb brought up Justin Wilson on a 1Y/5M deal. If Rosenthal would take 5M, I’d definitely prefer him.
          And (once again) I’ll throw out this name: Keone Kela. I’m figuring he could be the most cost effective proven closer available as a FA because of his health. He injured his forearm last season, and didn’t pitch much. He may not be available to start the 2021 season, but could make it back during the season (gonna’ have to get the medical ok from team doctors).

          Of the names Romus lists above, “No” for me on Alvarez, Melancon, Greene, and Jeffress. I know Matt Klentak had a lot of interest in Jeffress when the Brewers released him two years ago. Klentak’s interest raises red flags for me. 🙂

      1. DMAR…….I think he wants more than one year…Braves like those one year deals.
        And he may go for $17M thru $19M AAV on a 3/4 years deal…..and if has to settle for only a one year deal….may cost the Braves somewhere around $21M plus

        1. Ozuna is a horrid defensive player. I think more than years they are waiting to see if DH is in play. I think for Ozuna they would go to 3-4 year deal or they can switch gears and offer a hefty 1 year to Nelson Cruz

          Either way I don’t think they stand pat

  9. On paper, the Phillies may be behind the Braves and Mets (I think they’re closer to the Mets than most people believe). They’re going to need some things to go wrong (injuries) with those clubs and a lot of things to go right (health and progression by young players) with their own roster to have a shot at the division.
    Having said that … I wanted to wear rose colored glasses in the snow today so I put together what 2021 could look like if each Phillie stays healthy, and plays up to one of his best (kind of recent) past performances. Not saying this is going to happen. Just painting the rosiest of pictures:

    JT Realmuto … avg slash over last 4 seasons .276/.335/.477
    Rhys Hoskins … last season .245/.384/.503 and was on pace for 38 HR’s
    Jean Segura … 2017-2019 slashed .294/.337/.421 avg 11 HR
    Didi Gregorius … last year/first season at CBP .284/.339/.488 on pace for 25 HR
    Alec Bohm … .338/.400/.481 would have hit ~14 HR over a full season
    Andrew McCuthen … slashed .255/.391/.461 last half of 2018 (after trade to NYYs) and first half of 2019 (before injured as a Phillie)
    CF Adam Haseley/Scott Kingery/Roman Quinn … someone needs to step up
    Bryce Harper … two seasons with the Phils has totaled .262/.385/.518, but he’s capable of earth shattering seasons. At age 22 (2015) and age 24 (2017) he put OPS #s of 1.109 and 1.008.

    Aaron Nola … top 3 NL Cy Young in 2018: 212 IP, 149 H, 58 BB, 224 K, ERA+ 173, 3.01 FIP.
    Zack Wheeler … excellent in year one for the Phillies (ERA+ 156, FIP 3.22).
    Zach Eflin … really good last season (ERA+ 115, FIP 3.39)
    Spencer Howard … he’s got top 50 prospect stuff, needs to stay healthy
    Vince Velasquez … capable of 101 ERA+ (2016) and 3.75 FIP (2018) which is more than fine for a #5 SP. The fact that he’ll be pitching in a walk year could push 2021 to his best MLB season.
    Matt Moore … I’m not going to go back seven or eight years, and feed you his early career stats in Tampa. He’s no longer that pitcher, but does he have enough to be your rotation depth/long man in the BP? He proved his health last season in Japan when he made all of his starts (16 G, 78 IP, 64 H, 22 BB, 89 K, 2.65 ERA). He does have some upside.
    Adonis Medina and Ranger Saurez … more depth.

    Archie Bradley … is coming off a season where he put up a 163 ERA+ and 2.59 FIP between Arizona and Cincinnatti (where he worked with Caleb Cotham).
    Hector Neris … has really been the Phillies’ lone mostly consistent, reliable arm out of the BP since Ken Giles left after 2015. In that time, he’s only had one year that he didn’t post a positive ERA+, and a FIP less than 3.83. Just two years ago, he totaled 67.2 IP, 45 H, 24 BB, 89 K.
    Jose Alvarado … is a real wildcard. The hefty lefty (yeah … Jakob Hernandz is now the hefty left 2.0) has been limited because of injuries the past couple of years, but his first two seasons (2017-18) were phenomenal. During that time, Alvarado tallied 93.2 IP, 66 H, 38 BB, 109 K, 149 ERA+, 2.36 FIP.
    Connor Brogdon, JoJo Romero, Sam Coonrod, Ramon Rosso, Damon Jones, and Kyle Dohy … hope some of these young arms contribute. Almost impossible for the pen to be as bad as 2020.


    Another optimistic (yet, unrealistic) way to view 2021 is to imagine guys duplicating the highest bWAR seasons of their careers within reason (wouldn’t be fair to go too far back on 34 YO Andrew McCuthcen).

    Andrew McCutchen … 2.8 WAR (between SFG & NYY in 2018)
    Rhys Hoskins … 6.0 WAR (did this by prorating his rookie season [212 ABs in 2017])
    Bryce Harper … 9.7 WAR in 2015
    JT Realmuto … 4.5 WAR in each of 2018 and 2019
    Didi Gregorius … 4.8 WAR in 2018
    Alec Bohm … 3.2 WAR (prorating last season’s totals)
    Jean Segura … 6.4 WAR in 2016 (3.2 WAR in 2018 may be more realistic)
    Scott Kingery/Adam Haseley/Roman Quinn … gotta’ hope one/couple/all progress

    Aaron Nola … 10.2 WAR in 2018
    Zack Wheeler … 8.7 WAR (if you prorate his 2020 #s out to a full season)
    Zach Eflin … 4.8 WAR (if you prorate his 2020 #s out to a full season)
    Spencer Howard … ? (sky is the limit with good health)
    Vince Velasquez … 1.7 WAR in 2016 & 2018

    Archie Bradley … 3.5 WAR in 2017
    Hector Neris … 2.1 WAR in 2016 and 2.0 WAR in 2017
    Jose Alvardo … 1.4 WAR in 2018
    Connor Brogdon, JoJo Romero, Sam Coonrod, Ramon Rosso, Damon Jones, and Kyle Dohy … TBD – however, we’re hoping for a whole lot of this:

      1. Romus … no. Warren is not on the 40 man, but yeah … if there ends up being a MiLB season, and the Vineland native is throwing well … he could also get a shot. I guess Christopher Sanchez is another guy (he is on the 40 man) who could also get a shot.

    1. Love ur optimism. I’m
      Right on board w u. I can see much of that happening. We had leads in 46 of 60 games last year. If couple young kids can step up in pen n Bradley n neris does what they r capable of then we should hold many of those leads. I definitely think our pen will surprise

    2. Love ur optimism. I’m
      Right on board w u. I can see much of that happening. We had leads in 46 of 60 games last year. If couple young kids can step up in pen n Bradley n neris does what they r capable of then we should hold many of those leads. I definitely think our pen will surprise.

  10. Jim, I was looking at organizational chart. It looks like the name Clearwater needs to be moved from column “E” to column “F” and Jersey Shore from column “F” to “E” since these two rosters changed destinations.

  11. My main concern now is production of SP 4/5 leading to bullpen burnout. If get close to 6 innings ave out of those 2 spots I see playoffs. If Vinnyesque production no playoffs.

  12. get the points about the owners- don’t get what is really gained by delaying spring training -other sports are pulling off games, they should be able to pull off spring training even without vaccine rollout. but with the unknown of the variant, seems best case scenario is a small percentage of fans in the fans this season- and that revenue drop off has to be addressed realistically by both sides.

  13. Thanks for the updated cbt payroll number. With 23 million left I disagree that they won’t add any more. I think Middleton crying poor in the fall was before DD took over. He wouldn’t take this job w no money to spend because that’s whAt he does best. I’m not saying he will spend 30 million on Bauer. But I do think at least one more dependable reliever. Hopefully ten mil for a colomê Type but I’d even take 4-5 mil for a lesser but proven arm. And def some starters on minor league deals w major league invites.

    1. Agree, with you, I don’t think DD is done. I figure there are few pieces that DD has scrutinized that he doesn’t feel are relative for the next 5 years. I look for a few of them to be moved. Right now we are basically the same team as last year with a bullpen upgrade and a starting pitcher, maybe upgrade.

  14. BP posted an article today called, Ten hitters on the Rise. One of the ten was Bohm. They compared Bohm to Kris Bryant, saying,

    “Like Bryant, Bohm was taken at the very top of the draft, and didn’t find any level where pitching could seriously challenge him until he reached the majors. Even there, in an admittedly short and strange season, Bohm looked very good, although a .410 BABIP inflated his raw numbers, and DRC+ pegged him as more good-for-a-rookie than truly good. For his second act, though, PECOTA sees big things: a 117 DRC+, and 2.3 WARP.

    The truly telling parallel to Bryant, though, might be that Bohm’s profile is much less centered on power than his size suggests. PECOTA only foresees 17 home runs (against 28 doubles), but also only has him striking out 123 times in 580 plate appearances. Like Bryant, he might end up being more well-rounded (if less lethal) than some imagined.”

    1. I’ll take the under on the homers but the over on doubles. I could see 10 homers but 40 doubles

  15. From the naked eye other than stature I fail to see the similarities between Bryant and Bohm. Bohm no uppercut let’s the ball traval in and hits to all fields. If they don’t try to change him into a pull power hitter which Phillies used to try to do all the time he will hit .290 or better. Bryant’s a pull upper cutter ( severe launch angler for the new baseball languagers). Bryant seems to start his swing earlier and therefore gets fooled by more offspeed. I understand analytics role in the game just don’t have enough time to understand all those formulas and WR¥£ Acronyms

    1. Not many:
      LIPS…..Late-inning Pressure Situation
      WHIP…..walk hit inning pitched
      FIPs….fielded independent pitching
      BABIPs……batted ball in play
      EV….exit velocity
      LA….launch angle
      TTO….three true outcomes….HR, BB or K
      DCOV ….Distance Covered
      BBE….Batted Ball Event

  16. For what it’s worth, here are some of BP’s PECOTA projections for 2021:

    (name avg / obp / slg / DRC+ / WARP)

    Harper .265 / .409 / .514 / 152 / 4.1
    JTR .268 / .329 /.462 / 114 / 3.8
    Hoskins .239 / .363 / .475 / 129 / 3.0
    Bohm .281 / .346 / .446 / 117 / 2.3
    DiDi .260 / 313 / .447 / 105 / 2.1
    Herrera .253 / .318 / .412 / 99 / 2.0
    McCutchen .252 / .350 / .440 / 117 / 1.9
    Segura .272 / .325 / .408 / 101 / 1.8
    Haseley .258 / .325 / .401 / 99 / 1.0
    Quinn .227 / .294 / .354 / 79 / 0.9
    Kingery .221 / .278 / .376 / 76 / 0.5
    Knapp .219 / .319 / .343 / 87 / -0.4
    Moniak .216 / .270 / .347 / 66 / -0.6

  17. Looking like no DH in ’21 NL. Players reject MLB proposal to delay the season and expand playoffs. Two weeks until the snap of the mitts under palm trees and cacti.

  18. The Arenado trade to the Cardinals is official. The prospects the Rockies are getting back from the Cardinals has been announced and the phrase “highway robbery” may not be a strong enough description. To say the Phillies couldn’t have met or beat the Cardinals package is an understatement. The MLB Trade Rumors article notes Arenado’s desire to get hell out of Colorado and got me thinking how much he likely would have loved to be aligned with JTR and Harper for all their prime years. I realize the addition of Arenado would have put the Phillies over the salary cap so it’s easy for me to spend other peoples money but as I wrote over the weekend a middle of the lineup that had Bohm, Arenado, Harper and JTR would be must see T.V. every night..

    1. Where would Hoskins, Bohm and Arenado play? Without the DH, zero chance Phils were interested. Other clubs like the Braves and Nats were probably very interested though.

        1. Hinkies one post above opened my eyes to something which is I’ve been way to tough on Hoskins. His on pace numbers were very good.

          Yeah I would like to see him BB a little less and hit more balls over the wall but 38 dingers is not too shabby

          1. DMAR…..may only concern with Hoskins is RISP……..very poor because he draws too many BBs as a middle of the order guy
            One of the worst things in RISP is to draw a walk.
            Ruben alluded to BBs not being productive 8/9 years ago…..what he failed to elicit that his analytics guys probably told him and he forgot…..they are only non-productive in RISP situations, especially when it is not an intentional walk..

            They set up too many GiDPs, along with it slows momentum. by taking the ‘starch’ out of the flow.

        1. I really don’t understand the undervaluing of Rhys Hoskins.

          He’s a damned good player now and I think he’s got a few gem-like season ahead of him. And he’s very inexpensive. You build playoff teams around players like Rhys Hoskins. If I’m the Phillies, he’s part of my short-term, medium-term and maybe even long-term plans. He’s a heck of a player and I think the best is yet to come.

      1. Would have been very easy to trade Hoskins. He had a very good hitting year last year, is under team control for 3 more years and is only making $4.8.

        Easy asset to move.

  19. Saw this on Twitter. In games that featured JTR, Bohm and Hoskins, the 2020 Phillies were 17-8

    1. Line-up construction is key I think. I like Hoskins 2; Harper 3 and JT 4 followed by Didi and Bohm

      Questions are who leads off. Segura would be 7 and CF 8 so I guess that leaves Cutch at the top. Or Joe G could get really brave and allow Bohm to LO…he’s not your prototypical speed guy but he does see pitches and take his BB’s.

  20. We were never in on Arenado, so I can’t spend too much time lamenting not getting him. Would I love to have him? Sure, But, I would be happy if Middleton didn’t have a Salary cap under $210M. I still am a believer in Bohm at 3B. But for everyone who disagrees, why not LF? Cutch is done after this season, and why is everyone, sorry!, not everyone, ready to trade Rhys, who I think is still going to be really good for us? He, if he gets to where I think he will, is much more valuable to us than what he is worth in a trade today. If we need a #b down the road, maybe one is in the system, or we go get one. I think next year’s FA target is CF, where I still am not happy with or confident in the production. I would love Haseley to be a bona fide Major Leaguer, but he needs to improve significantly. For this season, I am happy with Bohm at 3B and Hoskins at 1B, just get more Pitching!

    1. FYI – don’t be surprised if Odubel Herrera comes back and ends up being a way better option than either Haseley or Quinn.

      If there’s one thing I really did not like about Matt Klentak it’s the way I think he buried people he didn’t like. He completely buried Odubel – like screwed him and prevented him from showing his talents far past the amount he should have been punished for his transgressions.

      Odubel made a big and very serious mistake. Odubel could act like an idiot on the field and often lacked focus and maybe even effort at times. But let’s be clear, Odubel is extremely talented – talented enough to make a run for a batting crown. If he retains those skills he could have a huge bounce-back year if he is given a legitimate shot.

      1. I just don’t see it. I can’t wrap my head around the optimism many of you have for Odubel. And this has nothing to do with his domestic abuse incident. I’m talking solely about his on-field performance. The guy is a free swinger, and after a couple of years, the league caught up with him. Odubel slashed .249/.306/.405 (in 676 ABs) over the course of the 2018-19 seasons. It’s coming up on two years since he’s seen an MLB pitch. I suspect his skill set has only deteriorated during that time.

        If the team wants to get a look at him during ST … fine. But … I wouldn’t expect much.

        1. You could be right, but I think many of his problems were his personal life invading his professional life. What he can do remains to be seen and we cannot rely on him of course, but it’s worth monitoring for sure.

          1. I remember when everybody said he would not even make the team. The only person I have seen with more ability was Richie Allen. I look for him to lead the team in batting average.

      2. I would agree to giving Odubel another opportunity to show what he’s got NOW in spring training. This is his last contract year. We all know what players have historically done when motivated by the uncertainty of their future. While I don’t know whether he’s matured at all, the surrounding cast of seasoned veteran leadership shouldn’t leave him room for his past mental lapses. The talent is there. Let’s find out. If nothing else beyond 2021, he may surprise and contribute to a playoff run this season.

        1. mark829….agree…..the tools are there.
          He did struggle the last two years…pitchers adjusted or he pressed.
          And for me….if he should come in with the gold-tip dreads chopped off….a positive for me.

          1. I don’t care if he comes in wearing dreads, nail polish and a nose earring if he focuses, plays hard, works his butt off and is a good teammate. We don’t need him to lead the team in batting average. Playing like a 3 WAR player would work just fine.

      3. We will know Herrera’s fate with the organization during ST. If he receives an invite, he has a chance. If not, he doesn’t even have a shot at AAA.

    2. When they drafted Haseley where they did it was because they graded his hit tool very high. When he got to the minors he didn’t disappoint he slashed 292/360/798 OPS.

      He was a top of the order bat. In my opinion the worst place you can hit a young player is 8 in the NL. Some or many will say you have to prove yourself and there isn’t much of an argument against that.

      I say it sends a young player a message that we lack confidence in you. In addition it really is place in the LU for an experienced hitter. Batting in front of the pitcher requires a large degree of processing information and getting pitches to hit.

      Confidence for some is a fragile thing and easily destroyed.

      1. DMAR – I recall that when the Braves brought up Heyward, he played everyday and started off batting 7th. By May he batted 5th, and by June he batted 2nd. Of course, he was on his way to a 6+ WAR season while finishing second to Posey for ROY honors.

        I believe that writing a young player’s name on the line-up card everyday is a loud vote of confidence by the manger, and is more important than where the player is slotted. I think that you can look at batting a rookie low in the order as a way to take some of the pressure off.

  21. I am not a believer as Bohm as the long-term 3B. But this year I would literally play him all 162 games at 3B. Then we may know something. Do not DH him in AL parks, do not play him at !B if Hoskins can’t go. Put somebody else at 1B and put somebody else at DH. It is important to play Bohm every game at 3B.

      1. DMAR….whoa…slow down… the majors you play to win the game.
        Playing Bohm for all 162 at 3B could cost you a few precious games….especially if there is DH and Hoskins needs an occasional breather at first base.

        Arenado committed 72 errors in his first 415 games, an error at a pace of one every six games…..but they were all in the minor leagues…were he also developed his defensive skills.

        Bohm needs to play third, but I would temper it a bit.

        1. LOL OK Herm….

          Show confidence in the young man. Let the kid play. The long term benefits will far out weigh any short term pain.

          1. Hah….Herm!
            Everyone does say the kid works very hard on his defensive game at third, so there is plenty of optimism.

        2. I’m of the impression that Bohm will eventually replace Rhys Hoskins at 1b, perhaps when the latter goes to free agency following the 2024 season. Bohm has the superior hit tool and is more athletic, while the two player profile similarly. Staying in the lineup together would present a redundant bat. Hoskins may have more power, but Bohm provides a much more complete hit tool.

          1. You really want to keep both. Bohm’s real value is as a 3b. Lots of 1b can hit but not as many 3b. His arm is strong and will get more accurate as he keeps practicing. His range won’t improve too much but he can improve on the balls one step either way. Tall guys like him have to learn to stay down at 3b and make plays staying low to safe time. He’ll improve. All we need is close to league average from him.

  22. Romus … do you think this team currently has a better defensive option on the 40 man than Alec Bohm? I understand Segura and Kingery can play/have played there. Neither of those two are more than competent defensively at 3B. Bohm may not win a GG, but he’s been playing the position since HS. He has limited mobility, but has the easy arm strength to handle the position. Quite frankly … I think Bohm played a respectable hot corner after some early yips. He committed 3 errors in his first 23 chances at 3B. He then allowed just one miscue the rest of the season (71 chances) at 3B. BTW … Bohm went error-free in 59 plays at 1B.

    Put him at 3B, and make him play his way off the position.

    1. Hinkie….I am willing to let Bohm stay over there, however do I think there are better defensive options on the 40? Probably like you say just Kingery.
      In a few years, maybe Martin if they decide to move him over there…. he did play it for a year at Arkansas. Nevertheless, Bohm’s hit toll more than makes up for any defensive deficits.

  23. Here is the thing with Bohm. As Hinkie says, Bohm has a good arm although somewhat scattershot. I believe that is one thing that can be coached/practiced.

    His limited mobility going right and left and lack of flexibility to go low can’t be coached. Looking at errors is a small part of the story. The balls that go by him and don’t show as errors but would be fielded by a better 3B is the real story. That requires watching him play.

    He plays 3b all this year. No problem with that. Maybe even next year. No decision needs to be made concerning Hoskins if Bohm can play a competent 3B. If he can’t then a decision needs to be made. Bohm showing he can play a competent 3B is the single most important thing that needs to be determined in 2021. #2 is Howard showing he can be a #3 going forward and staying healthy. Howard will be 25 in July and at some point he needs to rack up innings.

    1. Our desire for Howard to rack up innings is not really relevant as to whether he can and should rack up innings which could hurt him in the long term. He has struggled with his health the last few years and we need him to be healthy and building and not pitching too many innings this year.

      My hope with Howard is that he can routinely give us 5 good innings, perhaps 6+ on occasion, can limit the damage, pitch to around a 3.75 ERA and be a solid #4. That would be huge for us because then we could have a couple of guys compete for time as the #5 – best man wins (hopefully, that’s Moore as we need a lefty in the rotation), worst man serves as bullpen help or is there if a starter goes down.

  24. From listening to DD yesterday it sure sounded to me as if he has at least 1 and probably 2 hurlers coming in soon. He even suggested that 1 might already have an agreement in place but that the Phils are doing their due diligence on said hurlers health, etc.

    My guess…1 more starter [Porcello seems like a decent bet] and 1 more reliever [could be Colome, could be Jeffries, could be Wilson, could be someone that we aren’t even speculating on].

    Two things I like about Dombrowski, and in both he reminds me of Gillick, are that he knows how to multi-task and that he understands the importance of building around the edges. The first is an underappreciated skill, many GM’s are unable to focus on more than one task at a time and the latter skill was certainly one that Klentak lacked. Under MK, the Phils usually had a decent to strong 8 man lineup but were very weak on the edges [bench strength] and this would always bite the Phils at some point in the season, usually later in the season.

    Every time I listen to DD I am more impressed, he simply is comfortable in his own skin and portrays an image of confidence and a wonderful grasp of the big picture. I actually believe his track record with the Phils is likely to mirror Gillick’s…first year will be improvement but no playoff, second year…compete for division and make the playoffs and by his 3rd year will be capable of competing for a NL championship.

    1. I was harshly critical of the DD retention but I have to say that I really have been unable to find fault with anything I’ve seen him do thus far. The team seems hell bent on finding all the reasonable buy-low options they can to create competition and improvement. And it looks like they are trying thinking outside the box more frequently. And, yes, the Gregorious and Realmuto contracts were expensive, but I think they obtained fair value on both deals.

      I am also happy that it appears they are looking to the future as well as the present, and hiring Sam Fuld is a big part of that.

      Whatever you think, the current management group appears to be night and day better than Klentak and MacPhail (I am still trying to figure out what value this man added on the baseball side – I don’t see how he helped move this team forward at all).

    2. In the comparison of the two, was Gillick better set up for success based on what he inherited from Wade?

      Don’t get me wrong Gillick did a great job but DD might have a bigger task ahead of him.

  25. He’s probably a few years past his prime (I loved him in Houston), but Marwin Gonzalez can pretty much play anywhere on the field. Excellent bench player.

    I’m also impressed with Rondon and Paulino on MiLB deals. I like Paulino better than Ivan Nova as a potential #5 in case someone gets hurt.

    I’m still waiting to see if David Robertson finds a MLB deal. If he doesn’t, I’d expect him back on a MiLB deal.

    1. I tend to think that a Marwin signing would precede a trade of lesser depth pieces like Quinn or even Kingery…?? I’m sorry but I can’t shake the sense that Dealer Dave is working the trade market as much as the FA market.

      1. you think a team would be interested in Kingery with his production to date vs amount due him?

        1. Some GMs may not look at 2020 because of the circumstances, and his own COVID ills….and not so much also his 2018 rookie year, but try to further analyze his 2019 season were he was a 101 wRC+.

  26. We did this last year and brought in all theses 26 and 27 year old cast offs for minor league deals with guaranteed ST invites when the coaching attention and playing time would have been better used for our up and coming pitchers… I like the Rondon signing but Paulino and Mitchell do nothing for me when Abel or Miller would get so much more out the ST experience..

  27. I agree completely with Hinkie. I have seen nothing yet to warrant moving him and trading Hoskins. I think it would be a mistake. But that is simply my opinion. I don’t expect to have the entire team settled in 2 months of Dombrowski being here. I do expect more BP help, and I do expect a trade, if not now, then at the deadline. And, I know we will need reinforcements next year. I don’t see a team that is set everywhere 2 years from now. And, I am optimistic that we have prospects who will make jumps this season.

    1. I don’t recall anyone recently suggesting Bohm should replace Hoskins immediately or to trade Hoskins. Some of us are projecting – and within reason, I believe – that Bohm profiles as a 1b as he approaches his late 20s, or perhaps in LF. Why the insistent rebuttal?

      1. Sorry, mark. I had read more than once that Hoskins should get traded for BP help, moving Bohm to 1B. Maybe that was from those that wanted us to get Arenado. My insistence on hoping that Bohm stays at 3B and Hoskins at 1B is because I think that is where the most value for both players is. If Bohm isn’t a 3B, is Casey Martin? I don’t know that he profiles there better. Is Stott? I don’t see that either. So, to me, hoping they stay right where they are and succeed is what I view as best for the team going forward.

            1. Well you know I would have…

              I would have done a lot of things different but we shall see. I’m saying 3rd place which means they will win the division by some grace of god.

        1. matt13…Casey Martin at third:
          As a Freshman at Arkansas-(2018)
          >> All-SEC Second Team
          >> SEC All-Freshman Team
          >> NCBWA First Team Freshman All-American
          >> Collegiate Baseball Freshman All-American
          >> Played in 67 games with 62 starts, primarily at third base.
          ……at least, he is no stranger to the position

      2. mark829….does seem that way.
        However, it is what the Phillies think,
        …..they have been the ones, on occasions, who have moved Bohm over to first over the last two years…CLW, Lakewood, Reading and the AFL.
        Actually at Wichita State in 2017….he was moved over there for a dozen or so games.
        In all he has played 71 games there.
        So the future does look like it is being aligned for the eventual switch..
        But for now i can see him at the hot corner where his value is more.

  28. Also on DD. He has done more positive PR work in his short time here than Andy MacPhail did in 5 years. It is still unbelievable to me that a lifetime Baseball guy could be so completely tone deaf to the fanbase. He did not speak a single time where I came away optimistic about anything relating to the Baseball team.

  29. matt13…agree completely on DD’s grasp of public relations, he is constantly commenting on Philadelphia’s rabid phan base and on how it doesn’t dictate policy it sure influences it. I also want to point out that Realmuto specifically commented on how impressed he and his wife were that DD visited and had lunch with he and his wife in December. He said this was the first time in the off season where he got a good grasp of the Phils plan for the future and I have always believed this visit didn’t seal the deal but made one a whole lot more palatable for JT. It was a brilliant PR move.

    It reminded me of a move Theo Epstein made in the winter of 2003 when most of the baseball world thought Curt Schilling would be coming back to the Phils via a trade [Curt wanted to come back]. Epstein wanted to trade for Schilling but Boston was on Curt’s no trade list and he had indicated that he didn’t want to go to Boston.

    Epstein visited Schilling at his home, ended up spending Thanksgiving dinner with the Schilling’s and painted a beautiful portrait of his plan to end Boston’s long playoff drought. It worked and Schilling said he would welcome a deal to the Red Sox. The rest is baseball history.

    DD, like Epstein and Gillick, understand the human touch, something that was foreign to people like Wade and McPhail. Visiting JT was a brilliant move, and is unlikely to be the last great move he makes as the Phils top man.

    1. Not saying you are bashing Wade but it still blows my mind that people see him in a neg light. I would have welcomed Wade as a GM if he was given money to work with. Personality, I think he was a bigger reason we won the WS than Gillick was.

      1. Not debating the strengths and weaknesses of Ed Wade but I believe highly regarded scout Mike Arbuckle was as instrumental in the ’07-’11 run as anyone in the Phillies organization. Gillick made some key finishing touches: subtracting Bobby Abreu, adding Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth, etc. But Arbuckle (Cole Hamels!) was considered GM material for some time and was passed over for RAJ, unfortunately.

        1. Amazing how people rip on a guy……….Wade also help laid the foundation for the the Astros run…and he was there only four years….and he went through another rebuild….. in the 2011 season, Wade promoted José Altuve directly from Class AA Corpus Christi to the MLB club. …..drafted by the Astros on Wade’s watch were pitcher Dallas Keuchel and George Springer. All three were three key in the franchise’s first WS Championship in 2017. He got canned right after Jim Crane bought the team in 2011.

          1. I’d love to see what he can do with some money. If Wade wasn’t with Philly prior to their WS, we don’t win the WS.

  30. I was just reading the live chat by Steve Adams at MLBTR. He has Arrieta at $3 MM to $4 MM with incentives. Anyone interested in a reunion?

    1. Those guys would suck at darts. They literally just throw crap against a wall and hope it sticks. I’ve followed their chats and they’ve been wrong about 95% of the time.

      The real question should be, will Arrieta’s ego settle for what he is worth? Roughly $1.5mil

  31. No for me on Arrieta. Doolittle off the board to Cinci for $1.5M guaranteed. I probably will have wanted to be in on every FA Reliever as they come off the Board, but I hope we do more.

      1. I was intrigued by Archer as well.
        I do think with a minor league season (please!!) that there will be more depth than we believe. I think there will be some surprises this year. Don’t know who but just a feeling.

      2. I used to make fun of the Rays for being bottom feeders but I don’t anymore. While I would not want to be a Rays fan their operation clearly knows what they are doing.

        They could get a ton of value out of Archer in a number of ways. He could lead them back to the playoffs or they could flip him again for more prospects at the trade deadline.

        I can’t say anything bad about how DD has handled this off season. He clearly knows a ton more than me about building championship clubs but it does wear on me during a long off season when I see players that clearly could improve this team come off the board for peanuts.

        Archer could end up being just a shell of himself but the Rays don’t hand out guaranteed $6.5 million contracts unless they know something.

  32. What, no love for Jake? I cannot say that I am surprised. I do think that MLBTR is ‘in the ballpark’ though regarding Arrieta’s salary. Okay, if Jake is not worth say $3.5 MM is anyone surprised then that Archer, who did not pitch in 2020 and had one and half forgettable seasons with the Pirates, got $6.5 MM from the Rays?

    Arrieta had a ERA+ of 99 and a FIP = 4.55 in Philly, while Archer had an an ERA+ of 85 and a FIP = 4.71 in Pittsburg. I guess it comes down to how much more is Archer worth given that he is 3 years younger and still K’s a lot of batters.

    Keep in mind that I am not arguing for an Arrieta reunion. I want to see him signed about as much as I want to listen to Donnie and Marie Osmond sing or see Brandon Workman closing for us in 2021. I just don’t understand player contracts. (And frankly, I want Odorizzi, but that’s not likely to happen.)

  33. I think DD has more to do but is sitting with a small stack waiting to see how to use it. He is staring them down. Still believe there might be a Bosox player to be added – Jack Brad Jr or Porcello??? Just sayin’

    1. DD and Porcello have long ties (Tigers and BoSox) I believe and he is some what of a local kid. It makes sense to me

  34. I saw Monfort’s interview last night and the media is generally quick to bash owners for not spending. Funny too how the narrative was to make fun of them for getting fleeced in the deal.

    I have a lot of respect for Monfort. Clearly Arenado wanted out and was not happy there (Scott Rolen comes to mind) and clearly Arenado was likely to opt out after 2021 in which case CO would have received a draft pick.

    Monfort did what a compassionate person should do. Arenado held all the cards with his no trade. Sure he could have forced Nolan’s hand and made him miserable for one more season. He did a good thing he should get some credit for that.

    Hypocrisy is maddening at times

    1. DMAR…also came away with the same feeling about Monfort.
      Actually the Rox are better off in the long run…maybe not in ’21 or ’22 but beyond…..they will get higher draft picks finishing third or below in that division….and they will have the money to spend if need be…and who knows, the prospects they received could turn out…like Montero or Gomber the pitcher.

      Teams are owners are dam if they do, or damn if they don’t…that is…having to pay hi-AAV LTC to 30 year old stars …knowing full well there is no return on investment in the last 30% time of the contract.

      Right about now, I am willing to bet Cashman will gladly listen to anyone out there who would take Stanton off his hands….and the Yankees would donate 25/30% of that contract to anyone willing to take him.

      1. I would love to know the percentage of multi-million dollar contracts that actually come out sub-average when you attempt to balance out performance and compensation over the life of the contract. Who do you think wins out generally, owner or player? I.E. Yanks with Stanton!

        1. Virtually every LTC post 30…..player wins out at the end of the contract.
          Stanton ‘s WAR with the Yankees for 2 and 2/3rds year is 5.2bWAR…..value of one WAR by Fangraphs is approx $8M….so Stanton has played to a value of $41M….and has recd a salary so far at almost $65M

          1. …..and as for Stanton…unless he goes to 1B…is now a DH…..looks like his OF days are over, Cashman done messed that up
            And he has Judge next year to worry about for a LTC.

            1. I’m sure I knew this then forgot it and then was reintroduced to it last night. When Verducci was interviewing Arenado he asked him how it would be adjusting to breaking pitches away from Coors field

              Apparently and aside from the thin air it is one of the reasons offensive metrics are so high in CO. Much less break and shape on sliders and curves there.

              The answer wasn’t as good as the question.

              I always laugh when they interview guys. Case of Semien “Why Toronto” they never say/answer they offered me the most money LOL

            2. And they frequently occupy the same rehab bus – total joke……Stanton is injurred so often, and one could see that would be the case, it is possible he plays 20 years but actually goes on the field for only ten of them !!

  35. Ed Wade deserves credit for not trading Ryan Howard or Chase Utley. He oversaw the drafting and development of some of the best players in franchise history. What he could not do was add the pieces to get over the hump. His trades, at the deadline, for relief help, were terrible. That is why he was let go. That is where Gillick excelled. Adding in the margins, and at the deadline, pieces to help us win. Klentak could not draft, oversee a farm with developmental skills, or add in the margins, or at the deadline. So, no, I didn’t want Ed Wade back as GM, but, yes, I give him the credit he deserves for the foundation that led to that great time from 2007 through 2011.

    1. That’s an interesting point Matt. For me its hard to unravel GM performance. So much goes into it from ownership down. The infrastructure, what autonomy they may or may not operate with. Their scouting departments and budget constraints.

  36. Alex Cobb costs about $5M of his salary to the Angels. O’s eat the rest. I am not sure the quality of the prospect the O’s get, but I am positive it is not a highly regarded one. Chris Archer gets $6.5M. I have no idea what the limit is for us to add, but both those deals seem fairly inexpensive. Porcello has to get at least those numbers, doesn’t he?

    1. If Porcello gets a deal it should be closer to $5 than $6.5. The anomaly on him was he’d have one really good year then a mediocre year. The past two season have both been mediocre so I don’t think I would bet high on a bounce back season.

      His ERA+ the last two seasons 87/75 his WHIP 1.394 and 1.508

    1. was once traded in part for Jean Segura. serviceable before last season but with high homer rate

      1. I mean, this is a defensible signing given the lack of depth in the rotation, but I’m a little surprised we went in this direction given what I understand the limited amount of money the team is allocating for the rest of its needs. I think I would have preferred to see this money go to one or more bullpen arms or a starter with a higher upside.

        1. Agreed. I’m wondering who they think their closer is. Is it going to come from Bradley Neris or Alvarado

          mix and match inquiring minds want to know

            1. Velasquez. I suspect the two will be in an open competition for the 5th spot assuming Spencer is healthy and can claim the 4th spot.

            2. I guess I forgot about Matt Moore. I am sure the Phillies are going to give Moore every reasonable chance to make the rotation and same is probably true of Howard. Knowing how frequently starters fail or get hurt, there should be plenty of opportunities for Anderson and Velasquez, although I think they really should consider converting VV to a full-time reliever to see if his velocity picks up.

  37. For those who are more in the know. How did the Reds overall staff perform last year under Cotham? I know Bauer was outstanding and speaks positively. But he is an outlier. Were the other pitchers better as well? Especially the bull pen guys. I think Sonny Gray was pretty good as well. Just wondering if that might be why we have not added many BP guys. I do think there may be some guys who can improve but most thought Price would be a major improvement as well.

    1. Not sure how to pick apart BP from starters but overall the Reds were 7th in baseball in ERA 5th is WHIP (my personal favorite pitching metric and 2nd in K’s.

      In a short season that is all probably greatly skewed by a handful of guys.

  38. If the Phillies could come anywhere near those that would be a huge improvement. I like the WHIP reference. It seemed last year anytime the Phillies started an inning late in the game with a lead the bullpen frequently started the inning with a walk. It seemed Hector always did that. Of course they almost always came around to score.

    1. Well WHIP Cincy was 1.22 ranked 5th Phillies 1.48 ranked 27th. Teams below them Rockies 28, Nats 29 and Red Sox 30

      So we weren’t the worst.

  39. It’s not my money … but … I’d have spent the extra 2.5M on Chris Archer (who got 6.5M from the Rays) over Chase Anderson (4M).

    1. or you could look at it as with no SP depth, DD got Moore and Anderson for what it would have cost them to get Archer alone (presuming they would have had to top TB offer with a return there attractive to Archer)

    2. Hinkie…Archer has too many question marks with that TOS …but give the Rays credit, their medical staff I am sure has him cleared, healed and ready to go.

  40. Would plan to piggyback starters 4/5 work? Use Howard/Moore and Nova/Anderson. Would relievers be able to handle rest of workload?

    1. I’m going to guess that Spencer Howard will remain in XST to begin the season. Maybe they bring him up late May/early June. Don’t think they’ll let him throw more than 120 IP in 2021.

  41. Tend to agree with Hinkie on the Anderson vs Archer. Appears Anderson was best last year at finding the barrel of the bat. Eleven home runs does not seem to play real well at CBP either as reliever or starter. Also, diminishing velo.

  42. Look, I am surprised that the Phils spent 4 million on Anderson [though I did suggest that I was sure they would sign another starter and reliever] but I also know that DD plays the long game and has always been adept at multi-tasking and moving multiple parts in a short period of time. I could be wrong [and most likely am!] but I think there is another shoe about to drop, be it moving Segura, dealing VV, or something else of this ilk.

    The Phils are getting awfully close to the luxury tax line and i doubt DD is finished bringing in players he is interested in and he is famous for making mid season moves once he has canvassed the landscape and seem where his team needs reinforcements. Remember, this Phillie team is still new for him, I doubt he saw many of their games last season and is now relying on his scouts and his instincts. Once his knowledge of the club catches up with his instincts he will make a big deal, he always has.

    I wont be surprised if the Phils move a salary soon, if I had my druthers it would be Segura but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was VV, especially given the money they gave to Moore and Anderson.

    1. The fact that Anderson and Velasquez’s salaries match exactly is a pretty decent indication that you could be onto something. I could easily see them moving VV – I mean, if he’s close to the same pitcher he’s been for the last 3 years, there’s no particular reason to hold onto him if you already have rotational depth.

    2. On the surface it would appear that Howard stays in Clearwater for XST, then maybe AAA. Velasquez to the pen…if he’s not traded. I track with you, CalDream. Dombrowski is obviously shuffling the deck. He hasn’t played his hand completely yet. We should always expect him to be on the aggressive. Middleton didn’t hire him to be MacPhail 2.0.

  43. Where is Moffo when you need him? Calling Rocco Moffo. Hasn’t he read/heard that the Phillies just gave 4M to a soft tossing RIGHT handed pitcher? With Anderson now on the squad, who gets dropped from the forty man roster?

  44. If I was a gambling man, there are a few things I believe will happen before opening day:

    Jean Segura will be on another MLB roster, opening 2b for Kingery.

    Dombrowski will acquire a starting CF and an experienced closer. I’m feeling Colome…

    At least one of the Phillies starting pitchers will begin the 2021 campaign on the IL. Hence the stockpiling of major league experienced arms to augment the staff. Howard’s major league season will be delayed until June. Anderson and Moore are 5’s at most. Expect DD to acquire a bonafide 3 or 4. Vinny Nibbles is as good as gone.

    Roman Quinn has played his last game in a Phillies uniform. Either Adam Haseley or Mickey Moniak will be the quasi-platoon with Cutch in LF if either isn’t dealt first. Not sure which…

    1. mark829…..180 with you on 2B options …Kingery is moved and Segura stays at 2B.
      Though agree…Roman may be roamin somewhere else.
      And, every ST an arm seems to go down…just hope it is not 1 thru 3.

    2. Scratch Colome. Twins signed him to 1 yr, $6+M guaranteed. Dombrowski HAS to have somebody in his sights as a closer. We haven’t one on this staff as currently constructed.

      1. Its probably time for him to step into that role….Bradley closed for the DBacks in the second half of 2019 with 18 saves…and again this past season with 6 saves before they dealt him to the Reds at the end of August.

  45. As long as 8:29 is making predictions, I’ll include a couple. Odubel Herrera will be at spring training with the Phillies and Wilson Ramos, now with the Tigers who gave him $2M, will have a big season (as long as all he’s doing is DHing). Then he will be traded away at the deadline. The Buffalo got tired the past two years with the Mets because he did the bulk of the catching.

  46. I would like to see Odubel given a shot this Spring. He is kinda of wild card. But he is owed money either way so give him a shot. I kinda like Segura at 2B. I really thought he played well there. Not as well at SS and 3B. Roman reminds me a lot of Billy Hamilton. He does not play to his strengths as a player.

    1. Unless there’s some cryptic memo dispatched by the league office, I find it difficult to believe that one of 29 other MLB teams would not be interested in Odubel. If Middleton and Co has determined that Herrera is box office poison, so be it. I only wonder to what extent, if any, moving El Torito has been discussed.

      1. He cost too much now……and has not played in two years….and fell off the cliff the last two years he did play.
        Phillies would have to be willing to pay, my guess, 75% of his salary for another GM to even look.

      2. Herrera could have been had for a bucket of batting practice balls the past two seasons. His salary keeps him from being a viable CF option for other teams. Don’t be surprised if he is released this spring. In fact, if I don’t see him at ST this month (yeah, I’ll probably watch from outside the fence to at least see who’s there), then that means they don’t even plan to play him at AAA.

  47. This pretty much sums up the back end competition:

    Corey Seidman
    Career starts of 6+ innings with 2 earned runs or fewer
    Matt Moore: 53
    Chase Anderson: 51
    Vince Velasquez: 24

  48. They may be SPs #4/5, Romus, if Spencer goes to XST, and VV to the BP or traded. I am still looking for another RP, and a brnch bat. I read yesterday about Brad Miller or Travis Shaw? What do you think? And, there is still the MarGo rumor

    1. matt13….Vinny Velo’s career reliever stats.
      IP32.0… H32…R19..RunsEarned17…HR5… BB18…IBB1…K39….ERA 4.78…..WHIP-1.563
      Hitters hit him at a slash of….260/.361/.439
      …..not really dominating

      1. Vinny never developed a pitch to get lefties out and the secondary pitches really never came around with any consistency.

        If only he could find feel for a CU or Splitter he could be a really good BP piece.

  49. Watching Vinny on TV lots of times it seems to me besides him losing his focus at times is that his pitches are just too straight. Very little movement if any. Major league hitters can hit those. I always think back to that early on 16K game against San Diego what has happened. Apparently he just has not made the adjustments necessary to be successful. I do not see him being an answer in the bullpen.

    1. Yes, after declining Charlie Morton’s option. That sums up the Klentak administration in one fell swoop. A profound inability to judge talent.

  50. Twins sign Alex Colome, $6.5M guaranteed, $5M this season. He would have been a nice addition. BP is not good enough. Fomus, VV scares me no matter where he pitches.

    1. yeah….I do think Dombrowski will have another BP signing to add……I also think Jose Alvarez is still out there.
      And with Moore, Anderson and Nova…..with Howard competing….why not move Vinny and his salary for a prospect that needs no 40 spot!
      If it were me….offer up Vinny and Scott Kingery to the Dodgers for RHP Clay Beeter and/or RHP Bobby Miller or maybe another lower ranked prospect in their system.
      Clears up $8M AAV for 2021.

      1. Romus…………have you given up on Kingery? IYO, is the Kingery we have seen all there is to see or is any improvement only going to be marginal from here on?

        1. Sadly to say yes……..too much swing and miss for a gap-to-gap slap hitter.
          Four/five years ago had visions of the recently retired Dustin Pedroia for Kingery, but alas……he will never get close to the K rate of 10% that Pedroia had in over 6K PAs in the majors.
          Anyway, for me the next man up, is Casey Martin
          Many of the same defensive tools as Kingery with jackrabbit speed
          And also plenty swing and miss….but a legit power guy.
          He could end up at third, who knows what their plans are for him right now.

          1. I remember citing Kingery reminded of a Peter Bourjos of the IF…

            I think where ever he is he will show glimpses but over a full 162 playing everyday the offensive production will simply leave a team needing more.

    1. 8:29 – I prefer Bamboo Brad but he hasn’t logged many innings in LF, which I think the Phillies need. While Gonzales has more positional flexibility and is a switch hitter, being associated with the Astros bothers me. I don’t believe it was just coincidence that he had a big year at the plate was in 2017.

      1. Gosselin is great when they don’t overwork him. He did great as a PH and at spot starts. He started to become less valuable when they played him to often as a starter.

  51. I see that Heath Hembree signed a minor league deal with the tribe. I just peeked at his 2020 numbers again while with the Phillies. I forgot just how comically horrendous he was:

    9.1 inning, 17 hits, 7 of which were HRs, and 5 BBs good for a FIP = 13.05. Yikes – good luck with the tribe Heath.

    Workman, Phelps, and Hembree were a three-man wrecking crew. Of the three, I do not understand what happened to Phelps. He had a fairly respectable career and was fairly consistent until, that is, he put on a Phillies uniform. I don’t understand how could his performance creator as badly as it did.

  52. MLB now did top 10 RF right now and Bryce was consistently ranked 5th. Pretty darn good. Soto was consistently ranked 1 and one had him Soto 2 behind Betts.

    Judge and Acuna who was just ahead of him which I don’t get. Judge is never healthy.

    1. Do not get Soto over Betts……not at the plate but in the field…played all of 6 games in RF…and in LF he was below average defensively…..SABR SDI had him near the bottom with a negative 3.6…and has been that way since his MLB rookie year.
      Heck even Schwarber was higher.
      Tyler O’Neill STL 7.0
      David Peralta ARI 2.3
      Shogo Akiyama CIN 1.8
      Bryan Reynolds PIT 1.6
      Jeff McNeil NYM 1.4
      Jurickson Profar SDP 1.2
      Raimel Tapia COL 1.2
      Adam Duvall ATL 1.0
      Kyle Schwarber CHC -0.8
      AJ Pollock LAD -2.6
      Corey Dickerson MIA -3.5
      Juan Soto WSN -3.6

    2. If you watch the show (I just don’t know if you have), they explain that the rankings are performed by a computer without bias and they further explain that, because 2020 was an abbreviated season, they are using 3 seasons of data. Once you know this and go back and look at Judge’s numbers, you will see why he beat Harper in the rankings. Even playing many fewer games, Judge consistently put out more WAR than Harper. Frankly, I was even surprised by how good the statistical numbers are for Judge, including elite defensive numbers. In 2018 and 2019, Judge put up 5.9 and 5.5 bWar even though he only played 112 and 102 games in those seasons. Essentially, when he played, he played like an MVP.


      1. So the real question between Judge and Harper is whether you feel like Judge is going to have a career that is just destroyed by injury or not, which is something the computer doesn’t take into account. But by the numbers, 130 games of Aaron Judge is likely to produce more total WAR (not just WAR per game) than 158 games of Bryce Harper. Personally, I think, within about 2 or 3 years, Judge is going to really break down and Harper will overtake him again, but, in the short run, Judge might be the better bet – but, due to the injury history, just barely.

        1. I don’t disagree at all Catch. I don’t think Judge’s career from an injury perspective gets much better.

          The show itself I get. The Shredder/computer I don’t pay much attention to but I do at times tune in to what the humans are saying. Last night was of particular interest because of RF.

          I know what I see when I watch Harper so I wanted to see what the deeper analytics said and I think we pretty much agreed.

  53. Bring on James Paxton!
    According to Roster Resource, the Phillies are ~11M under the luxury tax threshold. Like a couple/few of you have mentioned the past couple of days … DD is the kind of guy not bashful when it comes to making moves. Maybe Paxton costs 10M, and the club save 4M by dealing VV. Velasquez has some value, and should bring back a second tier prospect.
    BTW … some of you have mentioned dealing Kingery. I have a harder time seeing that because POBOs/GMs typically don’t like to sell low. Right now, the Phillies would probably get nickles on the dollar for Scotty Jetpax.

    1. Also … I’m not predicting (even expecting) the Phillies to land James Paxton. But … the fact that he’s represented by Scott Boras is definitely not a bad thing. Both Middleton and Dombrowski have excellent relationships with the super agent. Boras does have a history of doing repeat business.

    2. For those pitchers who see how stacked the NL East is vs. the easier path the NL Central Cardinals have to the playoffs, I wonder if this makes the Redbirds a favorite??

      1. Getting Arenado also helped their cause.

        Before the trade:WS Odds in January.
        Cubs +3500
        Angels +4000
        Phillies +4000
        Cardinals +4167

        Assume new odds will be out this month.

  54. Who do you feel is the biggest risk of those 3 Hinkie? Paxton? Seems Odirizzi has been fairly consistent in recent years. Phillies just need to get some luck on one of these guys they add. Seems so many bad outcomes have happened all free agent pitchers. Starters and relievers.

  55. If they did not sign Moore , I would have leaned Paxton….but with the LHP Moore now signed…..I would prefer Odorizzi…the Jays are going heavy for him also.
    Paxton could be less expensive if the bidding is not high on him

    1. For the Phillies, I would rank them in this order:
      1. Paxton (I’d prefer to not place all my LH eggs in Moore’s basket + Paxton has the highest ceiling).
      2. Odorizzi (a close 2nd – and he has the highest floor).
      3. Walker (IMO has the highest risk because of most recent significant injury history + gotta wonder why Toronto isn’t connected to him after they saw him up close in 2020).

      1. I have a hunch that this rumor is outdated. I don’t think the Phils are in on an expensive SP at this point. They probably checked in to make sure none of them go to someone else for cheap but I don’t see a $10M outlay at this point. No way. I do expect them to try to trade Vinnie and to use that money for a bench player and another RP.

          1. Without addressing Feinsand’s credibility, he is really making two not necessarily connected statements.

            1.) the Phillies and Cardinals are actively looking at FA SP
            2.) Odorizzi, Paxton, and Walker are the top remaining starters

            He’s not saying either team is in on any of the 3 pitchers. Just, well, what he said.

            I don’t see this as clickbait. Just Feinsand reporting one fact and providing possible options as a PSA.

  56. I forget the Paxton injury. Should he be ok for the long haul. I am kinda surprised someone has not landed Odorizzi already. I know he is not a hard thrower but he has done well the few times I have seen him. I am not afraid to have 2 LHP in rotation. Maybe split them up some. I have always thought having 5 RHP allow the opponent to get more comfortable in a series.

  57. CBS is saying Phillies more inclined for a cheaper option. They list Hamels, Porcello, and Shoemaker. Think I might go with Porcello here. Love Cole but not sure how much is left in the tank.

  58. Fun fact: if the Phillies sign Marwin Gonzalez and Taijuan Walker, their roster could include at least seven players with unique names in the history of MLB. In other words … no other guy who has ever played in MLB carries the same first name. The (potential) Phillies with the uncommon names are/would be:

    * Rhys Hoskins
    * Ranger Saurez
    * Mariekson Julius “Didi” Gregorius (has never been a Mariekson or a Didi)
    * Seranthony Dominguez
    * Marwin Gonzalez
    * Taijuan Walker
    * McKenzie “Mickey” Moniak (BTW it’s spelled different than MacKenzie Gore … who may make his MLB debut in 2021)
    ** for you Doobie fans: His full name is David Odubel Herrera (there have been plenty of David’s, but to the best of my knowledge, never an Odubel)
    *** In the extraordinary case Mick Abel races through the system this season (not gonna happen), he would qualify as the first McLean (McLean “Mick” Abel).

    There are a few who just missed:

    * Roman Quinn is only the third Roman in MLB. There are no other current players with his name.
    * Jean Segura is only the third Jean in MLB. There was also a Jean-Pierre Roy who pitched 3 games gor the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1946. There are no other Jeans playing today.
    * Adonis Medina and Simon Muzziotti share their first names with three other past MLBers. There are no other Simons currently playing. The NYY’s had an Adonis Rosa throw 2 innings in 2019, but he is currently unemployed.

    1. Should have mentioned there have only been three other Spencer’s in the history of MLB, in addition to Spencer Howard.

            1. And the DBacks drafted Bryce Jarvis with the 1-18 pick in last summer’s draft. He could make MLB by 2022.

  59. I still think we need a BP arm and a bench bat also, so I don’t see a big outlay for a SP. I don’t know what Porcello or Paxton gets, but I think Odorizzi gets the most of those 3. Maybe it’s Gosselin for the bench, but I am happy with Brad Miller as well. I think Marwin Gonzalez costs more than either of them.

  60. Because we are Phillies phans and we have more than our share of Wade’s and Klentak’s we are probably not used to someone like Dombrowski unless we were here from 2006-08 when Pat Gillick was running the show. What am I referring to here?

    Simply this…early in Gillick’s term as Phillie GM back in 2006, after he had made a few moves, a reporter asked him if the “heavy lifting moves were over” to which he laughed and said that “in my mind, important moves are never over, we are ALWAYS looking at ways to improve the club.” History would show that this was correct, Gillick was constantly tinkering [be it December or August] and some of his most influencial moves were made when we lest expected them.

    Dombrowski is cut from the same cloth, a careful examination of his track record shows he is constantly making small moves and then, BAM, he makes the giant one once he recognizes what he needs most at the time. In actuality, he is the perfect GM for an owner like Middleton, who is in personality and mindset much closer to the “spend stupid money” type than the “we are broke” gameface that he displayed when surrounded by glacier speed people like McPhail and Klentak. Remember, he is still the same guy that Jimmy Rollins called the “George Steinbrennner of the NL” a few years ago and I doubt he has changed one bit, especially now that Cohen is running the Mets.

    I predict the DD/Middleton dynamics are going to be fantastic and we as Phillie phans will reap the benefits of a club that never rests, is never done “heavy lifting” and will constantly seek to improve the club around the edges. Does this mean I believe the Phils will go over the luxury tax? No, not yet but remember that its not finalized till the season ends, not starts. My guess is that DD knows he can move VV, maybe even Segura if he eats some money, and views almost the entire roster [save for Harper, JT and maybe Nola] as tradeable for a price.

    I am not the least bit surprised that the Phils are mentioned as a team still in the market for a starting pitcher, I still believe DD has a few moves left to make BEFORE spring training and will never completely stop the wheels of Phillie maneuvers because he simply does not operate that way. Do you realize he has been on the job a mere couple of months and has already made 19 moves [FA signings, trades, minor league deals]?

    My point? Get used to the Phils being active all the time, its simply the way DD operates. Personally, I love it. As do agents like Boras, who as Hinkie indicated, has a great relationship with DD. The Phils are nowhere near done roster shuffling.

    Remember what JT said at his press conference…Middleton told him that he wants to build the greatest Phillie team ever. I am sure he told Harper and Boras that when they signed on. And more importantly, he likely told DD the same thing when he was courting him. And right now, this team is nowhere close to being the best Phillies team ever.

    Which can mean only one thing….

    1. Good post, CD. I believe Dombrowski is not nearly done with the 2021 opening day roster. And should he sign a bench player and a starting pitcher, and maybe another bullpen arm, all which would bring the Phillies near if not over the dreaded luxury tax threshold (roughly $11M?) you can rest assured know that he will move some salary in trades. Segura, Kingery, Velasquez are names of players who carry enough payroll to warrant a potential trade or 2. I’m still holding out for a Kingery rebound but if the deal makes sense, hey….

  61. All good points CD. The other characteristic of Pat Gillick was that he was never afraid to make a mistake. Remember Freddy Garcia? He cost us Gio Gonzalez, and Freddy did nothing for us. I believe he was injured before he ever got here from the WSox. He traded Bobby Abreu, and Cory Lidle, may he rest in peace, who was still a pretty good Pitcher, and got nothing in return. I am not counting that as a mistake, just gutsy. He wanted to turn the team over to Utley, Rollins and Howard. It was certainly risky. Abreu was still very good. Klentak was risk averse, and you can’t succeed that way. Dombrowski reminds me a lot of Gillick, just like CD has posted. How great would it be if he has the same success here?

  62. Corey Seidman wrote a piece today talking about a different look BP arm. Something, I am definitely in favor of. He mentioned 4 guys. Sergio Romo, Yoshi Hirano, Steve Cishek, my choice, and Tony Watson. Anyone in favor of any of them?

  63. Brad Miller and Phil Gosselin are pretty much “bat only” players. I guess off the bench as pinch hitters they would do but they are not going to do all that well in the field. Neither one can really play SS. Miller only DHed last year and when he played the field, he made 5 errors on 23 chances at third base. That is where at least Kingery shows some value.

  64. Bauer Sweeps…down to two teams according to agent Rachel Luba…Mets and Dodgers.
    Bauer ends up in Queens….then Phillies may want to seriously consider one of the three left…Paxton, Odorizzi or Walker.

    1. Phils have already been linked to them by the same person who named the Mets and Dodgers for Bauer (Feinsand, Luba only said that he was down to two teams; not which teams).

      1. It has been reported by other sources that is now the Mets and Dodgers….Angels are out now.

        1. My only point was that if those reports are accurate (as they appear to be), then we can be confident that the Phils are actively involved with those 3 pitchers. So good news for us.

    2. Would love to see the Dodgers swoop in and steal Bauer from the Mets. If not, at least drive up the price NYM has to pay. In any case, you can bet that Dombrowski will be signing one of the remaining 2nd tier starters.

  65. Ok, after reading the MLBTR blurbs on remaining free agents and related rumors. I predict the Phillies will sign Taijuan Walker to a 2/$14M deal. Then, after waiting out JBJ’s longing for a 4-plus year deal, Dombrowski’s familiarity with him will win the day, solidifying the defense up the middle, say 3/$18M. That’s $13M AAV between the two. With that additional salary against the “cap”, say goodbye to Vince Velasquez and his $4M…and probably other lesser moneys, especially if they acquire another legit BP arm. Gonna be interesting….

  66. GM should not react to what another team does or who they sign. Build best team within your framework and let the players and coaches do their thing.

    1. In the ideal world that works……look at the Yankees and Red Sox over the last 25 years…tit-for-tat…and majority of the time one of each would win the AL-East.

      If the Mets get Bauer on a 3/4 year contract ……wait and be patient?.

      As Herm Edwards says “You play to win the game!”

  67. Bob Nightengale says Mets and Bauer have reached an agreement. Mark Feinsand says they haven’t. Hmm…Jim? Who do you believe?

    1. And, Feinsand did NOT say the Phillies were actively in the market for Odorizzi, Paxton, and Walker.

      He said that the Phillies and Cardinals were “actively looking at FA SP”. And that Odorizzi, Paxton, and Walker are the top remaining starters.

      These are two separate and distinct statements.

      1. Connor Byrne of MTR just said that the Phillies are in the hunt for Paxton.

        Frankly, if I’m the Phillies, I feel obliged to take the next, last big step. They have sunk a lot of money into a team that, to me, is still on the outside looking in. But if they go that extra step and add a guy like Paxton or a couple of really nice BP arms, they may be in the hunt for the last WC spot or two.

        1. Even if true, my comment still stands.

          The only thing I can fin from Byrne is that he updated his MLBTR “Top 10 Remaining Free Agents” article 32 minutes after Steve Adams reported the Phillies’ interest in Paxton in his MLBTR “Latest On Paxton, Odorizzi, Walker” article which uses Feinsand’s tweet as its source.

          So, yeah, in the hunt.

  68. POTUS Biden wants to push back the start of the MLB season . . . At least that’s what’s being reported. I was hoping just to keep him outta my wallet, now he’s trying to mess with baseball as well 🤦🏼‍♂️😔. There’s ABSOLUTELY NO REASON to push back the season. None.

    1. I mean… there’s the whole ongoing global pandemic thing…

      But his input shouldn’t be whether or not to push it back, but rather if they don’t, maybe there needs to be an executive order that fans aren’t allowed in or around the stadium. We just need to look at football to see that merely limiting the number of fans in the stands doesn’t help; they end up all migrating to the lowest level (best empty seats) effectively eliminating the purpose for having fewer fans to begin with.

      1. If you have 20 minutes, google Dr Lee Merritt. Hit play. Someone who’s not in the back pocket of big pharma, big tech, or the DC swamp. Time to wake up and smell the koolaid, people.

        1. Dr. Merritt is one of the people who advocated for hydroxychloroquine. They are exactly the person in the pocket of big pharma and the “DC swamp.” That’s the drug Trump was spouting off about.

          If you think the medical community at large does not care about their patients, and it’s really the small minority of people like Dr. Merritt that would go against the grain just to help people, then there’s nothing I can do to help you. We’re all doomed if that’s the case. But, for what it’s worth, virtually every doctor I’ve ever met (and it’s a lot; I work with doctors often) has deeply cared about the well-being of their patients. The desire to help people is what draws most to the profession to begin with. If they just wanted money, they could be engineers and not incur the huge debts and time investment of medical school and internship/residency.

          And if the absolute VAST MAJORITY are aligned on both treatments and preventative measures, then I’m going with them. Because they’re educated about the subject in ways we can only imagine.

          Also, just for what it’s worth, Dr. Merritt is an orthopedic surgeon. Virology isn’t even on their radar. There should be no reason for them to speak about this subject outside of self-interest. There’s a reason general practitioners aren’t the ones to perform your open-heart surgery. Specializations exist because no one doctor has enough time to be qualified in all fields.

          1. I’m not a doctor but there have been new studies showing that it actually does help if you use early. Just read one that was released on Jan 21st. But of course since Orange man bad mention it 🤦🏼‍♂️


            And when I said there was no reason to delay, there isn’t. We have had a few major sports get thru a season and more than ample time to prepare to start a season on time. Have any professional athletes been hospitalized due to catching covid during their season? I don’t recall hearing of many, if any.

            1. Q: “Have any professional athletes been hospitalized due to catching covid during their season?”

              A: Eduardo Rodriguez missed the entire 2020 season. He got COVID in spring training, which led to myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle.


              It seems like a number of you know nobody who has been effected by the virus. Lucky you. Count your blessings. However, please understand (despite the crap you’re being fed from some so called news outlets), COVID-19 is real, and is making many people very sick, or worse yet, has killed almost a half million people.
              Would I like the MLB season to start on time? Yes.
              Am I going to be upset if it’s delayed by a few weeks to ensure players/coaches/umpires/stadium workers/fans are more safe? I’ll live (no pun intended).

            2. I don’t take death casually. I’m too much of a history buff. My neighbors growing up one Pud Clark was on a B-29 shot down over Nazi Germany. He spent over a year in a prison camp there. I believe it was the one from Stalag 17. My father used to tell me anyway. Mr. Clark never talked to me much when I was a boy but in 2012 after my father passed I was over the house and we were outside. He offered me his condolences. He and my father never got along very well. My father himself born in 1938 was a big WWII buff. He revered Mr. Clark as a hero he just didn’t like his language and rough around the edges persona.

              I felt that day it was my chance to hear the story from him. What he told me I will cherish forever. .

              Mr Kauff was a 15 year old Jew in Nazi Germany. He’s 93 today actually. Strange how he and Mr. Clark ended up on the same street just across from one another. Over the fall he was telling me a story about how he was with his girl friend in a shed (ahem) and they could hear the bombs falling. He says if he could hear them he wasn’t afraid. He knew they were off in the distance.

              This was the result of me asking him a question. Should we be afraid today given what he went through in Germany. His lady friend/care taker got Covid a few weeks later she’s doing fine. He had a pipe burst in his house and contractors were there working. One of the workers had it.

              I saw him while visiting my mother last night and he is ok. That’s how I know today is his birthday. Dottie his lady friend is doing good too and the work in his house is complete.

              I respect any opinion on the subject. I hope mine is respected as well. I choose not to live my life in fear. Courage or Bravery is fascinating to me. Washington’s Crossing is right around the corner from me. I visit there often and so far have taken 2 of my 3 grandkids there. They are just babies so they don’t understand yet the importance of that site or that an insurrection of sorts occurred there.

              Personally I do fear dying but I fear not living my life to its fullest more. Whatever MLB and the players decide to do is fine by me. Many with amazing courage have fought and died for their right to do so.

            3. My mother’s boyfriend of 15 years passed to covid over the summer, so I do take it seriously. My point of the question was, that with everything professional sports leagues have put into place, there’s no need to push anything back. As long as the players do what they need to on their end, covid shouldn’t be an issue.

            4. Eric D – The only place to get information for such questions is through peer-reviewed medical journals. Below is a link to an article in the Lancet, the most prestigious medical journal in the world. In that article they report “These findings are not surprising given the mounting body of literature suggesting no clinical benefit for hydroxychloroquine use against COVID-19.”


            5. spin rate:…this was never brought over the last year
              16 years ago……it was from the Virology Journal…NIH is the org Dr F works for in NIAID.


              “We report, however, that chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV infection of primate cells. These inhibitory effects are observed when the cells are treated with the drug either before or after exposure to the virus, suggesting both prophylactic and therapeutic advantage…”

              Chloroquine, a relatively safe, effective and cheap drug used for treating many human diseases including malaria, amoebiosis and human immunodeficiency virus is effective in inhibiting the infection and spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. The fact that the drug has significant inhibitory antiviral effect when the susceptible cells were treated either prior to or after infection suggests a possible prophylactic and therapeutic use.

      2. i didnt notice that when i was watching; they just didnt sell upper deck seats in some stadiums. if there wasnt the variants out there, delaying start would make more sense…if he wants MLB not to start, why isnt he asking the other sports to stop?

        1. Not all teams had bad results; but, for example, the games in Dallas were ridiculous. There was absolutely no regard for distancing or public health in general. And it only takes one team being irresponsible for it to affect all the teams.

          Anyways, for absolute clarity; it wasn’t Biden himself that asked for a month delay. It was just people from his administration. It’s also worth mentioning that the reason they suggested it was to give the league time to vaccinate all the players. The reason they didn’t ask the other leagues to stop? Because they’re mid-season (or preparing for the championship game, in the case of the NFL). It’s way harder to stop something than it is to delay its beginning. Momentum and all that (and cost analysis, in the case of for-profit-organizations…). Biden wasn’t president when the other leagues started their seasons, so he couldn’t ask them to wait for vaccines like he can for baseball now.

          1. understood- just seems like healthy young people in 20’s and 30’s would be well down the list to where the vaccine isnt coming for a few months unless they get bumped up in line- and with the variant things could be no better or worse at the time they would be pushing back to-

            1. The month timeline was suggested because the Johnson & Johnson vaccine should be getting distributed for more than a week at that point. The hope is that with the third vaccine in circulation, there will be enough supply to not have to make younger people wait. And yes, the variants of it could make it a moot point; but you know they wouldn’t agree to an “indefinite” delay, whereas there’s an outside shot they’d agree to a month.

            2. DanK….. Johnson and Johnson vaccine is Adenovirus26 formulated-traditional manufacturing processes and one shot needed …whereas Moderna and Pfizer are mRNA-novel manuf. processes..
              My cynical guess…FDA delays the Johnson and Johnson roll-out.

    2. You ain’t seen nothing yet, Eric D. Next thing you’ll hear, Abner Doubleday was a Russian spy.

      1. Fun fact; Doubleday never claimed to have invented baseball (and he definitely didn’t actually invent baseball).

        1. I know he didn’t. Just grabbed a name from 19th century history who we could play around with.

          Sorry, I’m a little ornery tonight….well, maybe a lot.

          1. Quit with the political crap y’all. I come here for baseball and an outlet away from politics.

            Baseball won’t be delayed. Johnson and Johnson is a week or two away from vaccine. So what no fans until May or June.
            We should stay out of politics just like political figures should keep out of sports.

            1. Easy, H…I haven’t called your boy an unwitting, senile Trojan Horse, or the Dragon’s puppet. C’mon, man!😉

    3. Does President Biden actually believe that or did someone just put a piece of paper in front of him and tell him to read it? MLB got through the season in 2020 and the last time I looked COVID positivity rates and deaths across the country are headed down dramatically. I might suggest to the President he has other more important issues right now than the start dates of MLB baseball…

      1. Hawk…understand big Phillies fan, and if the Mets sign Bauer, then things look mighty bleak for the Fightin’s….so shorten the season and then MLB may add more play-off teams like this past season….then the Phillies have a chance to get in….brilliance! 🙂

        1. I’m a baseball fan first a Phillies fan a close second. I would love to see Bauer in a Mets uni just for the entertainment value…

          and who knows maybe it lights a fire under someone in our org to really do something to improve this team.

          But again as good as DD may be at constructing winners with veterans I worry that might come at long term costs. While he has built some pretty good teams wherever he has been and a couple of WS champions if I’m not mistaken he’s also left some of those teams in shambles.

          Am I imagining that?

          1. I’m with you, DMAR. I hope Bauer signs with the NYM’s, but for different reasons. Bauer has the chance to light a match to that clubhouse. At the very least, It’ll be interesting to see how Alderson and Cohen deal with the club’s payroll after the 2021 season when Cano is reinstated, and Lindor, Conforto, Syndergaard, and Stroman all reach free agency.

            1. Interesting.

              If the Mets sign Bauer to a longer term deal (my guess is that he’s either taking a 4 year-plus deal or a one-year deal), at some point, it will go south. It’s almost guaranteed. If it’s a one-year deal, it could turn out pretty well.

              DMAR, you are not mistaken that DD has left several teams in tatters. That was my biggest concern when he came here. But someone made the point – and it was well taken by me – that he does the job he was brought in to do. So, in Miami, he got the team to the WS (and won it), and then was ordered to trade and re-build and he did that. In Detroit and Boston it’s possible the orders were to win a WS and worry about the consequences later.

              My hope is that Middleton has told him he doesn’t want a “one and done” type team, but, rather a sustainable base for winning. The best way for them to do that and be competitive now is for Middleton to loosen the purse strings and it appears he’s done that.

            2. If Bauer does sign with the NYM, the potential gasoline on the existing embers of disaster from the previous regime could ignite a whole other era of organizational mayhem.

            3. Dombrowski’s Tigers may have been the club that saw a decline….not sure all was his fault….Mike Ilitch did have some say in the reconstruction of that roster at some point after their playoffs/WS appearance …but only took him two years to get them to the top with an old time manager like Jim Leyland running things on the field.

            4. Ooh forgot about Cano and his heavy AAV. Again I think its going to be fun to watch.

              I try to always find the bright side as much as I may whine and complain about what I see are the negatives.

              What kind of cynic would I have been if I were a Dodgers fan up until last year. I don’t know the answer to that.

  69. Anybody else think VV should just pitch out of the BP in ST? He should be out of chances as a SP so try and get some value out of him in the BP.

  70. Sorry, guys, I am a Phillies fan first, so I want the Dodgers to swoop in and nab Bauer. The Mets are already better than us, and he widens the gap quite a bit. I don’t think it pushes John Middleton to go over the salary cap, and without that, there isn’t a move to be made that moves the needle. It will be hard enough for us to ne a Playoff team without them adding Bauer, and while I think eventually the Mets will have problems, I don’t think that happens right away. We can’t add a CF who gives us more than replacement player value, and we would also need a SP that is equal to Nola and Wheeler, not another depth player. And, we need another legitimate high leverage situations RP already. The numbers don’t add up to stay under $210M, even if VV gets traded. So, rooting for the Dodgers to land Bauer, assuming my choices are the Mets and them.

  71. Need to keep in mind that Bauer has only been great for the 60 game season. Most of the other full seasons he really is more closer to average than great. Plus he is may be a disruption to any clubhouse. I do not think it is all bad if he goes to Mets. Not sure he will do great in the big city. Plus they will be on him early if he struggles. I do think the Phillies still need at least couple more players.

  72. I am a Jayson Stark fan, and he had an interesting piece in the Athletic. Basically, he discussed 5 moves and their impact on the season. Springer and Hendriks FA signing, the trades for Arenado and Lindor and us re-signing JTR and Didi. Normally, he says, he would not have included us as we did not make the Playoffs when 8 NL teams did, but he did because if we had had just a bad BP, not an historically bad one, we would have been a Playoff team, without much of a struggle. The top 3 teams in having a lead in the 60 game season were the Dodgers, with 53, the Twins, with 52, and us, with 49. The 8 NL Playoff teams lost those games in which they led on an average of 11 times. We doubled that. So, he thinks that the organization, and a number of fans, think that an improved BP makes us a Playoff team. My position is that we had to bring back JTR and Didi, and even with Archie Bradley we need another really good RP. We have a little more SP depth than we did, and we need a bench bat, but I think those things are doable. Of course, we need production from the offense, but I think that we are in that mix, with a little help, to contend this year. Or, maybe, I am delusional?

    1. Many have said 60 games was not enough to see a normalization of the numbers. For those that had off or exceptional years.

      So its not out of the realm of possibility. We ended the season 7th in OPS I think we would have stayed on that trajectory over 162. We ended 27th in pitching ERA and that was mostly contributed by the BP

      So one would think we should be pretty close to that OPS figure this season and the pitching should improve at least to middle of the pack. First tell me if we’re having a normal playoff season or an expanded playoff season.

      I don’t think its a slam dunk for us under normal conditions but if playoffs are expanded then yes we should feel pretty good about that.

      That said I think our division might be one of the toughest in baseball.

  73. Matt13. I agree 100%. Last summer I watched game after game where Phillies led going into 7th or 8th inning and then trailing and losing by 9th. It was amazing that no matter who Joe brought in seemed to get shelled almost nightly. I think Phillies also scored 1st in like 45 games. One area the offense stalled on was adding to leads. They got the leads but did not add to them in many cases. I am always reminded of the 2nd game of DH with Toronto. Scored 7 runs in 1st. None till trailing in last inning. That was a game Vinny did well till 6th and them he and BP imploded. For this team to have a chance they have to get some guys who can get outs in the last 3 innings. There is simply no other way to see it.

    1. Watching those games was torture, Don53, and you make a terrific point. We need to add on runs after we take the lead. Yes, the BP was simply horrible, but too many times we stopped scoring after taking that lead. We knocked out the other team’s SP, then we could do nothing against their BPs, then when they got the chance against ours, it was like Batting Practice.

  74. Ha! Mets gave Bauer 12 noon deadline to accept their offer. Tell me that won’t come back to bite them. Good time for Dombrowski to jump on Paxton.

          1. Just remember …Bauer’s agent is a woman……and what a woman!
            I have learned one thing in my lifetime……never give a woman an ultimatum.

  75. Calling Rocco Moffo. Calling Rocco Moffo. And where is V1? As Miley Cyrus sang, “He came in like a wrecking ball” for the weekend and then he disappeared again. At least those two don’t talk politics.

    Did V1 and Moffo get captured by those nasty Mets fans? If that be the case, I quote a great cult leader, “I like guys who don’t get captured”. My goodness! Did I just write those words? Sorry about that.

    1. LOL I love a good sense of humor Ciada. Its missing from a lot of corners of society.

      I’m 51 so some of my favorite comics were Bill Cosby, Richard Pryor (Brewsters Million-Hilarious), Eddie Murphy, Sam Kinison, Jeff Foxworthy I didn’t really care for Andrew Dice Clay but he was big for a while.

      I’m not sure who the comics of today are or what the youngsters of today think is funny. I know my dad didn’t think my stuff was funny. I just hope they are still finding things to laugh about.

      i know this Dan Plesac is one of the funniest guys in baseball. I just love how he can mix a ton of knowledge about the game with a nice dose of self deprecating humor.

      Funny is like pineapple on your pizza I guess you either love it or turn your nose up at it.

      1. Great post, DMAR. IMHO, a sense of humor isn’t about getting a laugh as much as laughing at one’s self. There are certain things we all relate to as men in our 50s which doesn’t translate to those in their 30s or younger. I personally love Lewis Black’s style while I don’t agree with his views on a lot of things. Humor is a tremendous energy which can either break down barriers or erect walls of offense. But if we can laugh at ourselves, it’s hard to find an argument.

        1. Great point Mark if you can’t laugh at yourself you probably take yourself too serious.

          We almost left off the GOAT IMO George Carlin…

        1. Thanks Murray I’ll try and check that out. I’m not sure if I get Showtime though. Comcast rakes me over the coals as it is. I do get a few of those extras not sure if that is one of them.

      1. Maybe signed for less: $102 million compared to reported $100 million to $110 million the Mets offered, both for three years.

  76. He gets $40M this year, $45M next year, AAV is meaningless to Bauer because unless he stinks he is opting out after 2, with another tidy $17M. I am glad he is not on the Mets. Now, we need to finish up our team and get ready to play. Going forward, there is no excuse for John Middleton to spend. I am not expecting him to go past $210M this year, but for the future, this off season proves there is money in Baseball.

      1. Absolutely, Romus, my opinion is, and has been, that if we are to be a top team over the next couple of seasons then we have not spent enough. We do not have anyway ready to move the needle, except maybe Spencer, and I don’t look for that this year. So, that $210M line needs to disappear. We have spent this off season, and I give credit where it is due. So, if the goal is the WS, what do we need? A closer, Rhys to be a 100BB, 38-40 HR guy, Alec Bohm to be real, Eflin to be a legit #3, a LF, a CF, and Spencer to be equal to a 3, or another SP. plus, everyone I haven’t mentioned be the vest versions of themselves. So, all we have spent is a nice start.

        1. Check out Jayson Stark tweet today. It talks about something we already know but he basically says we would have been one of the best in baseball last year w an average pen. We held more leads than everyone in the East. Maybe a cause for optimism. Add in being 18-7 when JTR, Hoskins and Bohm are in the line up together.

            1. Think about that over a third of the Phillies losses were games they had a chance to win. For some reason I was thinking 14. Guess not much difference between 12 and 14. I think there were a few tie games these guys came into that the Phillies lost as well.

            2. Don53….these are just the blown saves in late game situations… may be correct on early leads

            3. Here is a ?. Does a blown save only happen in the 8th or 9th inning? May have been some in 7th that do not count. Not sure how they counted the DH games in that regard. Think the Phillies may have played like 8 DH.

            4. Save (SV)
              A save is awarded to the relief pitcher who finishes a game for the winning team, under certain circumstances. A pitcher cannot receive a save and a win in the same game.

              A relief pitcher recording a save must preserve his team’s lead while doing one of the following:

              – Enter the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitch at least one inning.
              – Enter the game with the tying run in the on-deck circle, at the plate, or on the bases.
              – Pitch at least three innings.

              The term save was used by general managers in the 1950s, without specific parameters. It simply referred to a pitcher who entered the game with a lead and finished off a win — regardless of the score. Writer Jerome Holtzman was the first to give specific criteria to saves in the early 1960s. But saves didn’t become an official stat until 1969.

              Hold (HLD)
              A hold occurs when a relief pitcher enters the game in a save situation and maintains his team’s lead for the next relief pitcher while recording at least one out. One of two conditions must be met for a pitcher to record a hold:

              1) He enters with a lead of three runs or less and maintains that lead while recording at least one out.
              2) He enters the game with the tying run on-deck, at the plate or on the bases, and records an out.

              As a statistic, holds are designed to credit late-relief pitchers who are not closers. For those pitchers, their primary job is to not relinquish the lead, while getting the ball to the next reliever in line. Every save opportunity in which a pitcher records at least one out will result in either a save, a blown save, or a hold.

              A pitcher cannot receive a win or a save in a game in which he records a hold. However, more than one relief pitcher can record a hold in a single game. It is also possible for a pitcher to receive a hold and a loss in the same game should he exit with the lead, only to see the runners he left on base score the tying and go-ahead runs.

              The hold was invented in the 1980s by statisticians John Dewan and Mike O’Donnell as a means to quantify the effectiveness of relievers who aren’t closers. The statistic was meant to value setup men — who traditionally pitch the eighth inning before the closer pitches the ninth.

              Win (W)
              A pitcher receives a win when he is the pitcher of record when his team takes the lead for good — with a couple rare exceptions. First, a starting pitcher must pitch at least five innings (in a traditional game of nine innings or longer) to qualify for the win. If he does not, the official scorer awards the win to the most effective relief pitcher.

              There is also a rarely used clause where an official scorer can deem a relief pitcher’s appearance “brief and ineffective.” (For example, if a reliever relinquished a one-run lead by allowing three runs, but was still in line for a win after his team scored four runs in the following inning — that may qualify.) If that’s the case, the scorer can award the win to a pitcher who followed that “brief and ineffective” pitcher. Which relief pitcher earns the win specifically is also up to the judgment of the official scorer.

              Note: The phrase “in a traditional game of nine innings” includes the seven-inning games in major and minor league doubleheaders as well as rain or other weather-related shortened games of less than from nine innings. Non-traditional games include the all-star game and Grapefruit/Cactus League games as well as other exhibition-type games.

            5. Don53….good question….and what inning does the analytical people draw the line between a ‘Hold” and a ‘Save” in the 9 inning games or those 7 inning doubleheaders…hopefully we do not see anymore of them.

            6. DON53….. think i have a clue…pitchers have a category ‘GF”…games finished…..I am assuming the pitcher who finishes the game in a win with the run limitation lead…gets the save…..pitchers who do not GF but enter with a lead and do not relinquish the lead get a ‘Hold”….regardless of the inning they enter.
              In the old days…a Goose Gossage would get a 3 inning save coming in the 7th inning.

            7. Good points Romus. I agree on the save. I believe no more than a 3 run lead to qualify. The Hold makes sense for a pitcher who keeps a lead but does not finish game. Likewise opposite of a Hold should be a blown save earlier in game for pitcher who gives up lead prior to 9th inning. I am just not sure where the Hold or blown save can occur. Because of Covid I watched most of the games last year. We do concessions at fairs and festivals and almost all were cancelled. There were so many games where the Phillies led at least going to the 7th where they lost. On a light note I was hoping at the end of the year that Joe was able to make it back to the dugout before he heard the crack of the bat.
              I remember the 3 inning saves of the old days. Like you I have no idea how those DH games are counted. Seemed like those games got late really fast.

            8. Great info on saves and holds Jim. Thanks. So it appears from info that a blown save can occur at any point from the 7th inning on. That is what I though but was not sure. Also no idea how the 7 inning games were calculated. I guess from the 5th inning on if same criteria used. Though I did hear one of announcers say a starting pitcher still needed to complete 5 innings in a DH game to qualify for win just like a regular 9 inning game.

            9. A blown save can occur from the SIXTH inning on. Wins, saves, holds for seven-inning games are calculated the same as nine-inning games. Guess the excerpts didn’t really help.

  77. So, the Dodgers now gave a battle for #5 SP between Urias, May, & Gonsolin! Are you kidding me?! Their roster reads like an all-star team.

    1. It is a ridiculously great team. Last year’s Dodger team was on a pace to win 116 games or more – this year’s team could actually do that. The Mariner’s record of 116 wins really might be in jeopardy – they could be that good.

  78. Bauer will make more $ in 2021 than the Pirates, Indians, and Orioles. Baseball needs a salary floor. Unfortunately it will NEVER happen but relegation would incentivize teams to spend $.

  79. Yep….Marcell Ozuna, Braves Agree to 4-Year, $65M Contract with 5th-Year Option. Not good for us.

  80. Braves are for sure figuring that Ozuna will be their DH after this year. They surely do not want him playing the field.

  81. Once again I am in admiration of the Braves. Constantly making shrewd moves.

    One-year deal for Donaldson (top ten mvp).
    One-year deal for Ozuna (top ten mvp).
    Team friendly l/t deal for Albies.
    Team friendly l/t deal for Acuna.
    Ozuna now 4/yr/$64m.

    Oh and did I mention trades?
    Shelby Miller for Dansby Swanson (Inciarte, 3 more)! Take on Bronson Arroyo’s contract and get prospect Toussaint.

    Hopefully the Phillies list has begun…
    Kept Harper, JTR’s AAVs reasonable.
    Assembled DD, Fuld, Girardi, Bonifay, Barber leadership team!
    More to come…

  82. I am happy with make up of Phillies team. Mostly a group of baseball Players easy to root for. Also some young players to track their growth. Following a competitive team with a manager who plays the game the right way good enough for me.

    If you love the game and are allowed go watch some local college baseball. If summer college leagues are going on this summer take ur crappy beach chair to an evening game and watch kids play because they dream of playing at next level or just love to play.

    Braun making more $$ this year than whole payroll of some teams. MLB a joke

  83. With the signing of Ozuna, I wonder if Anthopolous hedged a bet that the DH in ’21 would be agreed upon by the players. Or has word leaked that it will once other wrinkles are ironed out between MLB and the union? Just speculating….

    Should the DH in fact be employed in the NL this season, it would behoove Dombrowski to acquire that bat instead of settling for a hodge podge of bench platoons. Rhys Hoskins is the obvious candidate on the current roster. Which direction does DD go. Find a suitable 1b? Move Bohm to 1b and acquire an every day 3b? Slide Didi to 3b and acquire a SS? Or just bite the bullet this year and settle the long term need next winter?

    I think those scenarios are rolling around the POBO’s head as we speak.

      1. I would consider Bohm as a lead off man. He’s not a basepath burner, but you would benefit from his power ala Jimmy Rollins in his hay day. Plus his batting eye works quite a few walks. The Phillies don’t have your classic leadoff hitter as currently constructed. Cutch is aging and might be a better fit in the 2 slot.
        1 Bohm
        2 Cutch
        3 Harper
        4 Hoskins
        5 JTR
        6 Didi
        7 Segura
        8 CF?
        9 Pitcher

        1. hadnt though of Bohm, but that makes sense- thinking Joe would probably give Cutch or Segura a short first but thats a direction he could go as the season goes on.

  84. mark, I think that the Universal DH is a definite in the next CBA. The only reason there isn’t one this year is because the Owners thought they could get some concession from the Union to adopt it. The Union said “you guys want it as much as we do, so why should we give something up to get it?”, and the proposal dropped. A LTC for Ozuna is definitely predicated on the DH coming, meanwhile he is a terrific hitter, and this was a smart Braves move. We still need BP help and a bench bat.

  85. Romus…then u look like a scout. That’s how u can tell the guy sitting there is an mlb scout. Crappy beach chair and funky button down short sleeve shirt.

  86. I should say used to. Lotta younger guys in stands now. Now it’s a lotta backpacks and cell phones

    1. and don’t forget….the $275 pocket radar ball coach / speed training tool/radar gun….we need to all chip in and get one for Jim so we get first hand consistent velo results from CLW.

      1. Now that is funny.
        Mets fans are livid on Bauer’s ‘desertion’ from them…….he posted Mets paraphernalia yesterday morning, then changed his mind later in the day to go out West..

        1. Anything at the expense of the Mets is absolutely riproaring hilarious. The Mets are still the Mets.

  87. What does everyone think of the Stark DH plan where basically you start the game with a DH and he stays in the lineup only as long as the starting pitcher stays in the game?

    1. I like it. Creates a strategic tension in which managers must weigh their options more carefully. And it certainly would eliminate the “opener” concept.

  88. Mamie Van Doren turned 90 years old today. Who is an old enough Phillies fan to remember what Mamie and the Phillies had in common?

    1. She was a regular shopper at our newport beach store a few years back. I saw her a few times and her outfit was very revealing to say the least.

    1. His quote was pretty good….”only regret is that I can’t sit in the stands and watch myself pitch” Local wild kid…grew up in Trenton, NJ and only signed a baseball contract with the Pirates to get out of Trenton he later said. He surely lived the glitz and glamour life.

  89. Speaking of birthdays, the Bambino would have been 126 years old today. Does anyone have other details of his harrowing automobile accident while driving from Washington to New York, stopping in Baltimore for some illegal adult beverages with his wife and 3 members of the Yankees? He was fortunate, as was the game of baseball, as they walked away from his Packard which had flipped over along the slippery, rain soaked Route 1, 6 miles west of Media, Delaware County on July 7, 1920. Babe and his companions managed their way to a nearby farmhouse owned by a Wayne businessman named Coates Coleman. I always thought the story would have made for an interesting movie. Imagine if he hadn’t survived and how much his absence would have altered history in the decades to follow. Who would have emerged to replace his legend. Neither 714 career home runs nor his 60 in a season would have ever been the high bar which would eventually be surpassed after so many years. But somehow, on that late stormy midnight near what is now the Wawa headquarters, the legend was preserved.

    1. I read were he told the garage guy to keep his Packard…he’d get another in NY…stayed the night at Coleman’s and then the following morning went into Media and caught the train to Philly.

  90. Any posted list from the Phillies on who is being invited to ST? Many teams are already posting their invitees or is this another example that for some reason the Phillies need to keep it top secret?

    1. Hawkeye, my question would be whether this is a continuing organizational policy internally, or does Dave Dombrowski get to set the tone for what’s open for media/public knowledge. I never understood how this information would be considered classified. Or has it been more about playing close to the vest for the sake of it? I dunno…

    2. Nothing from the Phillies, yet.
      I keep hoping the Phillies will loosen up like other teams.
      The Phillies like to have their secrets. The guy who made those decisions in the past is still there in the same role.

      If there are sparse fans at the Complex, I’ll go and record who’s there. Some are trickling in now. I have a list of players, but can’t release it. I’ll report as I confirm or confirm from a second source. It’s not complete any way and has seen a few changes since I gathered it.

  91. Congratulations to Meghan Montemurro on her her gig. I’ll miss reading her stories at the Athletic.

  92. I don’t know how the rest of you feel, but I view adding Trevor Rosenthal as a mire impactful move than adding another challenger to be the #5 SP

  93. Rosenthal looked really good the few times I saw him last year. He is high risk but the Phillies are due to hit on one of these guys. They have been so unlucky. I think at least 2 quality BP guys are needed.

    1. Don53…if anything, the new pitching coach should be a revelation for the pitchers that the Philies have and will sign.
      Driveline’s founder, Kyle Boddy, was hired by the Cincinnati Reds in 2019 to work with pitching coordinator Caleb Cotham, a former Driveline client. And someone like Trevor Bauer is a product of Driveline and of course won his Cy Young as a member of the Reds. Some of their programs might be unconventional to baseball’s old guard, but they get results. They employ smart, forward-thinking people for a game that is evolving faster than many would like to admit.

  94. RIP Grant Jackson. NYT obit snippet: “ Grant played baseball in high school and, after graduating, contacted a Philadelphia Phillies scout, who signed him for $1,500. (He learned, after signing, that two other teams would have paid him $35,000.) In the minor leagues he was primarily a starter, but with the Phillies he toggled between relieving and starting.”

  95. I saw where matt13 mentioned me in regards to Bo Belinsky, who was engaged for a nano second to sex kitten Mamie VanDoren, in regards to her celebrating her 90th birthday yesterday.

    In fact, I do remember Belinsky and have several stories about he and his escapades from 1962-1965 from his time as a Los Angeles Angel and Philadelphia. Now I was very young when Belinsky made his major league debut in 1962 but if you even perused a sports page living in California back in ’62 you heard about Belinsky, he was for a short time just about the biggest story in SopCal, bigger than Maury Wills and his 104 stolen bases, bigger than Koufax or Drysdale and bigger than his teammate Dean Chance.

    It was equal parts baseball and equal parts night life. Belinsky began his major league career that year with a 5-0 record and the big highlight was the no-hitter he threw against Baltimore in his 4th start. He immediately became great friends with Walter Winchell, a columnist and influencial charector in LA and Winchell actually helped make Belinsky a bigger than life person. It certainly didn’t hurt that Belinsky was incredibly handsome, single and dating almost every female movie star in Hollywood.

    The photo of he and Van Doren dancing at the Whiskey A-Go-Go one night made national news and though Belinsky came down to earth to finish with a 10-11 record the sky still seemed the limit for Bo.

    However, his lack of discipline, bad temper and increasing addiction to drugs and alcohol led to a 2-9 record in ’63 and his future looked a bit bleaker, not that he seemed to care. His night life action, constant tardiness and increasing fines for said tardiness were the story of ’63.

    He did rebound in 1964 and since that was the year I officially became a baseball fanatic I remember Bo well. He pitched decently and finished 9-8 but he was becoming increasingly unpopular with the Angels for several reasons. One, his off the field theatrics were becoming more troublesome and worse than that, he best friend was fellow hurling teammate Dean Chance and the Angels were very concerned that Chance would become influenced by Belinsky’s chasing of the ladies.

    Another I remember was that Chance was the best pitcher in baseball in 1964, seemed to me that he was always throwing a shutout and if memory serves he actually threw 11. As for Belinsky, his Angel fate was sealed when in August he literally knocked out a reporter who dared to question him about his pitching performance. He was suspended for the rest of the season.

    Now is where the Phils become part of the story. In December ’64, a couple of months after the infamous Phillies collapse, the Angels dealt the lefty Belinsky to Philadelphia. Ostensibly he was going to replace southpaw Dennis Bennett, who had been dealt to Boston for slugger Dick Stuart. Yes, the Phils were bringing in Belinski and Dr. Strangeglove, Dick Stuart. Manager Gene Mauch was excited and said “if I could have 100 hurlers who were Phillies when Belinsky’s head catches up with his arm I would never lose.”

    Optimism in Philly was high and in fact Belinsky and Jim Bunning made the cover of an early April addition of Sports Illustrated predicting great things for the team. But what I remember the most was the story entitled The Rise and Fall of the Fabulous Phillies, written by Bill Leggett which covered in great detail the Phils tragic end to the ’64 season. I would recommend reading this story if you wish to relive that season, Leggett does a great job and its easy to find on the net. If you were a phan then as I was, it might even bring a tear to your eyes, it was that emotional for all involved, players, manager and phans included.

    Belinsky made his Phillies debut in Game 4 on a Sunday afternoon in Connie Mack Stadium, facing Sandy Koufax. Those of us, and there were thousands, who felt the 64 magic was carry over to 1965 were in much anticipation of the game but when anyone asks me when I knew ’65 wouldn’t be a repeat of ’64 I mention this game. Certainly Belinsky would outdual Koufax and the Phils would give us what they denied us in ’64 but, alas, it was not to be. Belinsky surrendered an early 3 run home run and despite a Stuart home run to make the score 3-2, the Phils lost in convincing fashion and I could tell even then things were never going to ever be the same, which made Leggett’s story even more poignant.

    Belinsky won 2 games in ’65 and though he started the ’66 season with the Phils he was gone before summer and after short stops in Houston and Cincinnati he was done as a big league hurler in 1968. Gone too soon considering the talent he had but if there is a silver lining to this semi tragic story its that Bo did turn his life around, married a strong Christian woman and became an equally strong Christian and became a great public speaker in Hawaii.

    Sadly, his heavy drinking and drug use led to an early death, way too soon in his early 50’s after a heart attack. But for one magical 3 month period in 1962 [April-June] Bo Belinsky may well have been the most recognizable and popular player in major league baseball, more so than Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Ford, Koufax, Clemente or Maris. Yes, he was that much of a celebrity.

    Hope this helps, matt13!

  96. CD, I knew I could count on you! I had forgotten the no-hitter, but remember that start to the ‘62 season. He was Joe Namath, for a short time, before Joe Namath. And, I remember the Mauch quote. Bo’s head never did catch up to his arm. Anyway, great stories, and very much appreciated.

  97. Romus, I hope you are correct. The thing that gives me pause is everyone seemed to think a year ago that Price would be a huge upgrade. In fact, the BP regressed tremendously and Phillies gave almost everyone an opportunity to contribute. I do think Brogdon, Romero, and maybe Rosso may contribute. I wonder where they see Neris fitting in. A guy at the backend of the BP cannot constantly be behind in the count and have runners on base all the time. Here in Indiana I coached basketball for years and I can always remember the comments of one who said “you cannot make chicken salad out of chicken sxxx!” I sure hope Cotham does get results.

    1. Cotham does know all the newer innovations that Driveline has incorporated with their clients…..hoping it does work out for the staff.

  98. Keep eyes on Aussie former catcher now OFer 19-year old Chris Burke…LHB power bat..
    Should be in camp in next month…hopefully coming out of Australia with the other Philliy players…..not sure what the quarantine timeframe is for them.
    Played for the Melbourne Aces, not the Adelaide Giants.

    Stats for him this season….5’11″…180 lbs
    Slash….242/324/424……PAs-74….4 Hrs….10-RBIs

    1. Phillies who are coming to ST already left Australia so they could start ST on time. Think there are two of them. Anyone else will be part of the second wave of ST invitees.

      1. Jim;

        Have the Phillies posted a ST roster yet for all the players who will be in camp? Thank you.

  99. Joe G seems excited about the re-made bullpen this season
    On podcast “Pine Tar For Breakfast” and Kevin Frandsen……….
    “………Girardi noted …..that there will be “different looks” in the bullpen this coming season — something that was not necessarily the case during the 2020 struggles. “You have different looks. Every guy has a little bit of a different look,” Girardi said. “[Sam] Coonrod is going to be different than [Archie] Bradley, who is different than [Connor] Brogdon. [Jose] Alvarado is going to be different than JoJo Romero. Hector Neris has the split. Everyone’s got different pitches they can go to, so it gives you different looks in the bullpen.We had a lot of 92s and 93s last year with breaking balls,” the skipper added. “It’s different this year, so I’m excited about that.”

  100. Romus, we just need to hope things work out and BP improves. I think back to 08. Believe Lidge was like 40 for 40 in saves. Rays had some ridiculous record as well last year. Amazing the difference getting outs in the last 3 innings. My grandson plays in a top travel program. They are big in the analytical teachings as well. Time to enjoy Super Bowl.

    1. Tale of Two Cities….Tampa and Los Angeles in sport
      Looks like it is Tampa…..they have the Stanley Cup, next is the Super Bowl
      LA….has the NBA title, and World Series.
      All four pros sports covered by two cities.
      Strange occurrence to occur!

  101. We don’t have much money to spend but I expect a bench bat, another RP and maybe a SP on a minor league deal (sorry, I don’t expect one of the big arms remaining to be signed although Porcello or Hamels for cheap plus bonuses is possible). Spring training g starts in a week supposedly so I expect deals this week.

  102. Hinkie…another of your wants, now off the board……Chasen Shreve
    The left-handed pitcher will also be invited to the Pirates big league camp on a minor league contract.

    He could, however, be available later in the year, if he has an opt-out on that contract and is not promoted to the 26 by a specific date..

    1. Yes, Romus. I thought Shreve’s LH “splitter” would have added yet another look out of the Phillie BP. He racked up 12.2 K/9 IP last year, and has held LHHs to just 2 hits in 34 ABs over the past two seasons. He pitched for Girardi and with Cotham in NY. Maybe they know something to offset Shreve’s recent numbers.
      I’d like to see the Phillies carry (at least) 3 LHRPs at a time on their 26 man roster. JoJo Romero and Jose Alvarado are locks (if healthy). IMO, Ranger Saurez is bettered suited to start. I’m hoping one/any of Dohy/Jones/Sanchez can find a spot(s) in the pen.

  103. There are still more RPS available, starting with Trevor Rosenthal. But, Cishek, Jake McGee, Shane Greene, all of whom would help, Marwin Gonzalez, P_hil Gosselin, Travis Shaw, and Brad Miller still available for the bench.

  104. Rosenthal and Gonzalez would be my choices if 2 could be signed. Might be too pricey. Greene and Gosselin 2nd choices. BTW Romus agree on the variety in the BP. Rays seemed to have lots of hard throwers but seemed they had quirky differences as well. To me movement on your pitches is most important. Whether you throw low or high 90s if the ball is straight guys are going to hit it.

  105. Always is interesting to watch on TV how some guys pitches move so much and others are straight as can be. Vinny has that issue. You know that guys show grips they use to others. It must be a natural ability, maybe arm slot, maybe hand size is a factor. Ball is the same so it has to be something they are doing to get the movement. Velo and movement is a sure winner.

Comments are closed.