(Note that changes after publication are in red text) updated 9/1, 9/4, 9/26, 9/30, 10/9, 10/31

As baseball teams play their way out of post season contention, the attention of their fans turns to other aspects of baseball.  Some begin to fret over draft position.  Other, more insightful fans, begin to look toward the Rule 5 Draft and the roster maneuvering that precedes it.  One such diversion the Rule 5 Draft provides for me is determining the status of players as the draft draws near.

When our Phillies were on the cusp of dropping out of playoff contention, I took a look at their upcoming Rule 5 considerations.  Then, they’ve bullied the Cubs and their way back into the wild card conversation.  But after this weekend’s debacle in Miami, I’ve decided to publish this article.  Most of the information is unlikely to change.  The removal of the August 31st trade deadline has seen to that.  Players added from this point forward should have little effect on rosters after the season.

I’ll pin this on the site and update as necessary over the coming weeks.

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Major League Rule 5 outlines baseball’s Annual Selection of Players.  Section (a) of the rule determines when the meeting takes place.  Section (b) describes the method and priority of the selections.  And section (c) defines which players are subject to selection.

When baseball conducts their winter meetings that conclude with the Rule 5 Draft, only certain players are subject to selection.  Here is MLR5(c).

(c) All players on the Minor League Reserve Lists of Major League Clubs, except players on the Voluntarily Retired, Disqualified, or Ineligible Lists shall be subject to selection by other Major League Clubs at the Rule 5 Selection Meeting in accordance with the following:

(1) A player without previous Major or Minor League service who signs with a Major League Club shall be subject to selection based on the following:

(A) if 18 years of age or under on the June 5 immediately preceding the player’s signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5 Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player’s first Major or Minor League contract, unless Rule 5(c)(1)(C) applies;

(B) if 19 years of age or over on the June 5 immediately preceding the player’s signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fourth Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player’s first Major or Minor League contract, unless Rule 5(c)(1)(C) applies;

(C) if the signing date of a player’s first Major or Minor League contract is between

(i) the conclusion of the championship season for the Major or Minor League Club to which the player is assigned on such contract and

(ii) the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting,

then the player shall be deemed to have signed after the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting, for purposes of this Rule 5(c)(1).

(2) A player who is re-signed by a Club within one year from the date the Club released the player shall be subject to draft at the Rule 5 Selection Meeting following the date of the latest contract with that Club.

(3) A player who has been subject to draft at a Rule 5 Selection Meeting shall be subject to draft at any subsequent Rule 5 Selection Meeting if the player is on a Minor League Reserve List (filed pursuant to Rule 2 (Player Limits and Reserve Lists)) at the time of the Rule 5 Selection Meeting.

(4) A player

(A) whose contract has been assigned outright by a Major League Club to a Minor League Club,

(B) who has been signed as a free agent to a Minor League Uniform Player Contract for services in the following year and is otherwise subject to selection pursuant to Rule 5(c)(1) or Rule 5(c)(2), or

(C) who has been released unconditionally from a Minor League roster and is otherwise subject to selection pursuant to Rule 5(c)(1) or Rule 5(c)(2),

shall be subject to selection at any subsequent Rule 5 Selection Meeting if the player is on a Minor League Reserve List (filed pursuant to Rule 2 (Player Limits and Reserve Lists)) at the time of the Rule 5 Selection Meeting.

(5) A Major League or independent Minor League Club may designate any player on one of its Minor League Reserve Lists to be subject to selection who otherwise would not be selectable under this Rule 5.

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Roster size for the 2020 season will be increased to 26 players.  The number of pitchers on a roster will be capped at an as yet undetermined number by a joint committee of MLB and MLBPA representatives.

That extra roster spot and the limit on pitchers may play into an organization’s decisions regarding which players to add to their 40-man roster to protect them from exposure to the Rule 5 Draft.  Players like Darick Hall, Austin Listi, and Jhailyn Ortiz who might have been considered safe from selection in previous years might be an attractive selection to sit at the end of a major league bench.

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By my calculations, the Phillies have 25 new players eligible for this December’s Rule 5 Draft.  They have 112 total players in the organization who have met or surpassed their Rule 5 eligible date.  Forty can be saved from exposure to the draft by their placement on the 40-man roster.  Many will become free agents and be eligible to negotiate with any organization.  Still others will be exposed for a second or third time and there is little fear that they will be selected.

Current 40-Man Roster – 33 active w/Phillies, 5 active on minor league rosters (De Los Santos, Hammer, Medina, Franco, Gamboa), and  2 on the 10-day IL (Nicasio, Quinn).

1. Alvarez, Jose: lhp
2. Anderson, Drew: rhp (DFA 9/1) replaced by Nick Vincent (selected 9/1) (elected free agency, 10/31)
3. Davis, Austin: lhp
4. De Los Santos, Enyel: rhp
5. Eflin, Zach: rhp
6. Eickhoff, Jerad: rhp (placed on the 60-day IL), Gosselin, Phil: inf (selected 9/1)
7. Garcia, Edgar: rhp
8. Hammer, JD: rhp (recalled 9/30)
9. Hughes, Jared: rhp
10. Irvin, Cole: lhp (recalled 9/1)
11. Medina, Adonis: rhp
12. Morgan, Adam: lhp (moved to 60-day IL) Grullon, Deivy: c (selected 9/1)
13. Morin, Mike: rhp
14. Neris, Hector: rhp
15. Nicasio, Juan: rhp (elected free agency, 10/31)
16. Nola, Aaron: rhp
17. Parker, Blake: rhp
18. Pivetta, Nick: rhp (recalled 9/3)
19. Smyly, Drew: lhp (elected free agency, 10/31)
20. Suarez, Ranger: lhp
21. Vargas, Jason: lhp
22. Velasquez, Vincent: rhp
23. Knapp, Andrew: c
24. Realmuto, JT: c
25. Franco, Maikel: 3b
26. Gamboa, Arquimedes: ss (recalled 9/30)
27. Hernandez, Cesar: 2b
28. Hoskins, Rhys: 1b
29. Miller, Brad: inf (elected free agency, 10/31)
30. Morrison, Logan: inf (elected free agency, 10/31)
31. Rodriguez: Sean: inf (elected free agency, 10/31)
32. Segura, Jean: ss
33. Bruce, Jay: of (recalled 9/1)
34. Dickerson, Corey: of (moved to 60-day IL), Ramos, Edubray: rhp (came off 60) (elected free agency, 10/31)
35. Harper, Bryce: of
36. Haseley, Adam: of
37. Kingery, Scott: inf
38. Pirela, Jose: of (recalled 9/3)
39. Quinn, Roman: of (10-day IL) (activated 9/30)
40. Williams, Nick: of (recalled 9/2)

Eleven Players are on the 60-day IL/RL – These players have to be activated and placed according to their contracts (rostered, tendered, released, or free agent).

1. Arano, Victor: rhp
2. Arrieta, Jake: rhp (10-day IL)
3. Dominguez, Seranthony: rhp
4. Eickhoff, Jerad: rhp
5. Hunter, Tommy: rhp (elected free agency, 10/31)
6. Morgan, Adam: lhp
7. Neshek, Pat: rhp
8. Robertson, David: rhp
9. Dickerson, Corey: of (elected free agency, 10/31)
10. McCutchen, Andrew: of
11. Herrera, Odubel: cf

 

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Here are some pertinent facts when considering off season moves.

Nine Players have Contracts in 2020

1. Jake Arrieta (3 yr/$75M (18-20)+21-22 opts) enters the 3rd year of a 3-year contract.  He’ll be heading into his age 34 season and will have 8.145 years of service time.
2. Jean Segura (5 yr/$70M (18-22)+23 c opt) enters the 3rd year of a 5-year contract.  He’ll be heading into his age 30 season and will have 7.065 years of service time.
3. Jay Bruce (3 yr/$39M (18-20)) enters the 3rd year of 3-year contract.  He’ll be heading into his age 33 season and will have 11.125 years of service time.
4. Bryce Harper (13 yr/$330M (19-31)) enters the 2nd year of a 13-year contract.  He’ll be heading into his age 27 season and will have 7.159 years of service time.
5. Andrew McCutchen (3 yr/$50M (19-21)+22 opt) enters the 2nd year of a 3-year contract.  He’ll be coming off the 60-day IL, will be heading into his age 33 season, and will have 10.123 years of service time.
6. David Robertson (2 yr/$23M (19-20)+21 cl opt) enters the 2nd year of a 2-year contract.  He’ll be coming off the 60-day IL, will be heading into his age 35 season, and will have 11.07 years of service time.
7. Odubel Herrera (5 yr/$30.5M (17-21)+22-23 opts) enters the 4th year of a 5-year contract.  He’ll be coming off the RL, will be heading into his age 28 season, and will have over 4 years of service time.
8. Aaron Nola (4 yr/$45M (19-22)+23 cl opt) enters the 2nd of a 4-year contract.  He’ll be heading into his age 27 season, and will have 4.076 years of service time.
9. Scott Kingery (6 yr/$24M (18-23)+24-26 opts) enters the 3rd year of a 6-year contract.  He’ll be heading into his age 26 season, and will have 2.00 years of service time.

Arrieta is on the 60-day IL, and has had season ending surgery to remove a bone spur.  Robertson is on the 60-day IL and had TJ surgery and is expected to miss the 2020 season.  He’ll likely be placed back on the 60-day IL when the 2020 season starts.

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Three Players have Club Options for 2020

1. Jason Vargas (2 yr/$16M (18-19)+20 opt) has an option for the 2020 season.  He will be entering his age 37 season, and will have over 11 years of service time.
2. Pat Neshek (2 yr/$16.25M (18-19)+20 opt) has an option for the 2020 season.  He will be entering his age 39 season, and will have 11.159 years of service time. (Phillies declined $7M club option for 2020 season)
3. Jared Hughes (2 yr/$4.5M (18-19)+20 opt) has an option for the 2020 season.  He will be entering his age 35 season and will have over 6 years service time.

Neshek spent half of the 2018 season on the DL.  He wasn’t activated until July 1, 2018.  He made 30 appearances.  He’ll spend 4 months on the IL this season and made 20 appearances.  The Phillies might part ways with the too, oft-injured soft tosser.  Vargas is a different story.  At $8M, he might be a cheap option for the rotation.  The fact that he’s a LHP enhances the decision.

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Fifteen Players are Arbitration Eligible this Off Season (w/MLBTR arb projections)

1. Cesar Hernandez (1 yr/$7.75M (19)) enters his 4^th and final arbitration year.  He ‘ll be entering his age 30 season, and will have 5.154 years of service time. ($11.8M)
2. J.T. Realmuto (1 yr/$5.9M (19)) enters his 3^rd and final arbitration year.  He’ll be entering his age 29 season, and will have 5.038 years of service time. ($10.3M)
3. Jose Alvarez (1 yr/$1.925M (19)) enters his 3^rd and final arbitration year.  He’ll be entering his age 31 season, and will have 5.035 years of service time. ($3.0M)
4. Blake Parker (1 yr/$1.8M (19))enters his final arbitration year.  He’ll be entering his age 35 season, and will have over four years of service time. ($4.7M)
5. Maikel Franco (1 yr/$5.2M (19)) enters his 3^rd of four arbitration years.  He’ll be entering his age 27 season, and will have around four years of service time. ($6.7M)
6. Vince Velasquez (1 yr/$2.249M (19)) enters his 2^nd of three arbitration years.  He’ll be entering his 28 season, and will have 4.086 years of service time. ($3.9M)
7. Hector Neris (1 yr/$1.8M (19)) enters his 2nd of 3 arbitration years.  He’ll be entering his age 31 season, and will have 4.086 years of service time. ($4.7M)
8. Adam Morgan (1 yr/$1.1M (19)) enters his 2^nd of 3 arbitration years.  He’ll be entering his age 30 season, and will have 4.017 years of service time. ($1.6M)
9. Mike Morin (1 yr/$700,000 (19)) enters his 2^nd of 3 arbitration years.  He’ll be entering his age 29 season, and will have over 3.047 years of service time. ($1.2M)
10. Jerad Eickhoff (1 yr/$975,000 (19)) enters the 2^nd of 3 arbitration years.  He’ll be entering his age 29 season, and will have 4.045 years of service time. ($1.5M)
11. Zach Eflin (1 yr/$590,000 (19)) enters his first arbitration year.  He’ll be entering his age 26 season, and will have 3.018 years of service time. ($3.0M)
12. Edubray Ramos (1 yr/$573,500 (19)) enters his first arbitration year.  He’ll be entering his age 27 season, and will have over three years of service time. ($800K)
13. Andrew Knapp ( 1 yr/$565,000 (19)) enters his first arbitration year.  He’ll be entering his age 28 season, and will have 2.171 years of service time. ($800K)
14. Jose Pirela (1 yr/$575,100 (19)) enters his first arbitration year.  He’ll be entering his age 30 season, and will have over two years of service time. ($900K)
15. Phil Gosselin was outrighted, but is in his 2^nd year of arbitration if on the 40-man roster.  Otherwise he’s a free agent, entering his age 31 season. (selected 9/1, enters his second arbitration year if he remains on the roster) ($700K)

I think we’ll all be surprised if all 14 are tendered offers.

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Eight Players are MLB Free Agents after the 2019 Season

1. Juan Nicasio (2 yr/$17M (18-19)) becomes a free agent.  He’ll be entering his age 33 season. (elected free agency, 10/31)
2. Tommy Hunter (2 yr/$18M (18-19)) becomes a free agent.  He’ll be entering his age 33 season. (elected free agency, 10/31)
3. Corey Dickerson (1 yr/$8.5M (19)) becomes a free agent.  He’ll be entering his age 31 season. (elected free agency, 10/31)
4. Drew Smyly (2 yr/$10M (18-19)) becomes a free agent.  He’ll be entering his age 31 season. (elected free agency, 10/31)
5. Sean Rodriguez (1 yr/$1.5M (19)) becomes a free agent.  He’ll be entering his age 35 season. (elected free agency, 10/31)
6. Brad Miller (1 yr/$1M (19)) becomes a free agent.  He’ll be entering his age 30 season. (elected free agency, 10/31)
7. Logan Morrison (1 yr/$1M (19)) becomes a free agent.  He’ll be entering his age 31 season. (elected free agency, 10/31)
8. Nick Vincent is a free agent going into his age 33 season (elected free agency, 10/31)

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Fifteen Players are Pre-Arb, One-Year Tenders this Off Season

1. Nick Pivetta (1 yr/$598,000 (19)) enters his last, pre-arbitration year.  He’ll be entering his age 27 season.
2. Rhys Hoskins (1 yr/$575,000 (19)) enters his last, pre-arbitration year.  He’ll be entering his age 27 season.
3. Nick Williams (1 yr/$575,000 (19)) enters his last, pre-arbitration year.   He’ll be entering his age 26 season.
4. Victor Arano (1 yr/$570,000 (19)) enters his last, pre-arbitration year.  He’ll be coming off the 60-day IL, and he’ll be entering his age 25 season.
5. Seranthony Dominguez (1 yr/$564,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be coming off the 60-day IL, and he’ll be entering his age 25 season.
6. Roman Quinn (1 yr/$559,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 27 season.
7. Austin Davis (1 yr/$560,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 27 season.
8. Enyel De Los Santos (1 yr/$555,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 24 season.
9. Arquimedes Gamboa (1 yr/$555,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 22 season.
10. Edgar Garcia (1 yr/$555,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 23 season.
11. J.D. Hammer (1 yr/$555,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 25 season.
12. Haseley, Adam (1 yr/$555,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 24 season.
13. Cole Irvin (1 yr/$555,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 26 season.
14. Adonis Medina (1 yr/$555,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 23 season.
15. Ranger Suarez (1 yr/$555,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 24 season.
16. Deivi Grullon is a free agent going into his age 24 season (selected 9/1, pre-arb if he remains on the roster)
17. Drew Anderson (1 yr/$555,000 (19)) is pre-arbitration, he’ll be entering his age 26 season. (released 9/2)

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Fourteen Players are Minor League Free Agents at the End of the 2020 Season

1. Fernando Salas was outrighted, and is a free agent entering his age 35 season. (elected free agency 9/30)
2. Rob Brantly was outrighted, but is arbitration eligible if on the 40-man roster.  Otherwise, he’s a free agent, entering his age 31 season. (elected free agency 9/30)
3. Mitch Walding was outrighted, but is a free agent entering his age 27 season.
4. Matt McBride (Pre-arb) is a free agent going into his age 35 season
5. Shane Robinson is a free agent going into his age 35 season
6. Andrew Romine is a free agent going into his age 34 season
7. Dan Straily is a free agent going into his age 31 season. However, if he were on the Forty, he would have one arbitration year remaining. (elected free agency 9/30)
8. Ali Castillo is a free agent going into his age 31 season
9. Malquin Canelo is a free agent going into his age 25 season
10. Jose Pujols is a free agent going into his age 24 season
11. Alexis Rivero is a free agent going into his age 25 season
12. Grenny Cumana is a free agent going into his age 24 season
13. Jan Hernandez is a free agent going into his age 25 season
14. Tyler Viza is a free agent going into his age 25 season
15. Nick Hundley is a free agent going into his age 36 season (released 8/30)

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Twenty-Five Players are First Year Rule 5 Eligible this Off Season

1. JoJo Romero (LHV),
2. Grant Dyer (REA),
3. Julian Garcia (REA),
4. Jonathan Hennigan (REA),
5. Jeff Singer (REA),
6. Henri Lartigue (REA),
7. Darick Hall (REA),
8. Raul Rivas (REA),
9. Luke Williams (REA),
10. Trevor Bettencourt (REA),
11. Bailey Falter (REA),
12. Mauricio Llovera (REA),
13. Cornelius Randolph (REA),
14. Rafael Marchan (CLR),
15. Jhailyn Ortiz (CLR),
16. Nick Fanti (CLR),
17. Tyler Hallead (CLR),
18. Rodolfo Duran (CLR),
19. Manuel Silva (LAK),
20. Jonathan Guzman (LAK),
21. Malvin Matos (LAK),
22. Ben Pelletier (LAK),
23. Rafael Carvajal (WPT),
24. Junior Tejada (WPT),
25. Robinson Martinez (GCW).

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Twenty Players are Returning Rule 5 Eligible Players this Off Season

1. Alejandro Requena (CLR),
2. Luis Carrasco (REA),
3. Jose Taveras (CLR),
4. Juan Escorcia (LAK),
5. Oscar Marcelino (CLR),
6. Jose Antequera (REA),
7. Brandon Leibrandt (LHV) (60-IL),
8. Aaron Brown (REA),
9. Gilmael Troya (LAK),
10. Daniel Brito (CLR),
11. Nerluis Martinez (REA),
12. Seth McGarry (CLR),
13. Sandro Rosario (GCW) (60-IL),
14. Luke Leftwich (REA),
15. Edgar Cabral (CLR) (60-IL),
16. Tyler Gilbert (LHV),
17. Jose Gomez (REA),
18. Gustavo Armas (CLR),
19. Garrett Cleavinger (REA), and
20. Ramon Rosso (LHV).

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Guys who have options (# remaining)

1. Rhys Hoskins (3)
2. J.T. Realmuto (2)
3. Scott Kingery (3)
4. Adam Haseley (2)
5. Andrew Knapp (3)
6. Maikel Franco (1)
7. Brad Miller (3)
8. Aaron Nola (3)
9. Vince Velasquez (2)
10. Zach Eflin (1)
11. Ranger Suarez (1)
12. Edgar Garcia (2)
13. Austin Davis (2)
14. Victor Arano (2)
15. Seranthony Dominguez (2)
16. Odubel Herrera (3)
17. Matt McBride (1)
18. Jose Pirela (1)
19. Mitch Walding (1)
20. Nick Williams (1)
21. Nick Pivetta (1)
22. Enyel De Los Santos (1)
23. Cole Irvin (2)
24. Jerad Eickhoff (1)
25. JD Hammer (2)
26. Arquimedes Gamboa (3)
27. Adonis Medina (3)

Last Option Used This Season

1. Edubray Ramos (0)
2. Drew Anderson (0) (released 9/2)

And, finally, if the Phillies attempt to DFA someone off the 40-man roster, and if that player clears waivers, that player may be Rule 5 eligible or have the time served to elect free agency rather than accept assignment to a minor league affiliate.

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This information is important when constructing the 40-man roster.  Not only will organizations try to protect promising young prospects, but they have to build a workable roster to compete with and support the team at the major league level.

As we have seen in the past, the Phillies will acquire new players during the off season that will be assigned to the 40-man roster and fill spots on their major league and AAA rosters.

While the Phillies are trying to build their 40-man roster, other teams are doing the same thing.  So, it will be difficult to trade players “we don’t want” to protect.

And, finally, not protecting a player does not mean he will be selected by another organization.  And if one is, he may be returned by the selecting team.