2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, April 8, 2019

2019 Draft

This is the Phuture Phillies forum for discussion of the amateur draft and J2 signing period that are about 2-3 months down the road.   I’m providing this space for those who are ready to enter discussion about this year’s crop of prospects.  You can place video, scouting reports, or just comments here.  You can reference these weekly discussions on the menu above.

This space is for the discussion of prospects in the upcoming draft and J2 signing season.  This is NOT a space for you to continue complaining about past picks and the past/current draft philosophy.  That horse has been beaten to death in  weekly open discussions.  If you must, keep it there.

 

42 thoughts on “2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, April 8, 2019”

  1. Big time matchup between two probable top 10 picks last night when ASU visited UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels with Bryson Stott scored 6 runs in the ninth to beat Hunter Bishop’s Sun Devils 10-9.
    Bishop went 2 for 4 (double and triple). He also walked once and scored a run.
    Stott was 2 for 2 (single and double), 2 R, 2 RBI. He also totaled 4 BB’s. He actually won the game with a walk-off bases loaded walk.

    Stott is now slashing .326/.489/.583
    Bishop is at .405/.535/.942

  2. rocco/rocco moffo … you (both) can watch the Penn Quakers play Monmouth right here
    http://www.espn.com/watch/player?id=43c33a3d-5eb6-498f-ab39-0be3ed8186e6
    As I mentioned the other day, Penn is one of the top offensive teams in the nation. They score almost 12 runs per game. Keep an eye out for freshman SS Josh Hood. He’s from near me. He graduated from St. Augustine Prep (same HS as Zach Warren), and was the South Jersey Player Of The Year last year. He’s dominating in his first Ivy League season (.383/.467/.661, 6 HR). He looks like a future day two pick (in 2021).
    Craig Larsen is another Quaker freshman having a big first year.

    1. I wonder how Penn would do against some of the big boys from the major conferences……they held their own and won vs Duke out of the ACC, but Duke is below .500 in their own conference.
      I assume they will get to a regional and that will be a good test for them.

      1. Romus … I’m almost certain we will get the chance to find out how Penn matches up against teams from the power five conferences because Penn seems like a near lock to win the Ivy and make it to the NCAA Tournament. I suspect they’ll score runs (not 12 runs, but maybe 5 runs per game) against the big boys. However, they’ll also give up a ton of runs. Their pitching doesn’t match their bats.

  3. Something i always wonder, and i am clueless how its done, If middleton really wants a good system, why not go after the braves scouts. for one, they seem to hit on the latin players. Tampa bay is another who seems to Draft well. and toronto right now has excellent prospects.. I would love for middleton to realize he cant continue to pay 330 million for players, He needs to draft better. I mean look at this current staff, if i am not wrong 4 starters are from other teams.

    1. roc….very good points.
      And that is what he did….Johnny A. was from the Braves.
      Now Sal Agostinelli has been with the Phillies for over 20 years and he is the czar of the international talent.
      But you got to admit…..the lads did hit on yuor Cesar….correct! 🙂

  4. Here’s another Phillies possibilities list for June’s draft.

    Round 1 …

    * Alek Manoah (RHP WVU) I’ve been talking about him for two months now. Not much more for me to add other than his updated 2019 stats: 51.2 IP, 34 H, 15 BB, 65 K, 2.44 ERA, .191 OBA and this video

    or

    * George Kirby (RHP Elon) As Romus mentioned the other day, Kirby makes sense for the Phillies because of his ability to control the strike zone. His K/BB rates are off the charts. This season 49.2 IP, 45 H, 3 BB, 58 K as the #2 starter for Elon. These numbers are a continuation of what he did on the Cape last summer as a closer 13 IP, 13 H, 1 BB, 24 K.
    Kirby is reportedly throwing in the mid 90’s and has the frame (6’4″, 201 lbs) to still fill out some.

    some other possibilities for 1-14 are:

    * Braden Shewmake (Texas A&M SS) .331/.378/.497

    * Thomas Dillard (C/1B/LF/DH) .345/.490/.622

    * JJ Goss and Matt Allen (prep pitchers)

    1. Round 3 …

      * Ethan Small (Miss St LHP) I listed him last week as a possible third rounder even though I wasn’t sure he would go this high. I watched him last Friday night hitting 93-94 early in his start, but saw his velo dip to 88-89 later in the outing. He’s got an above average CB and CH, and he is polished. I’ll re-post the video where you can watch him disrupt batters’ timing by using quick pitches and a stutter in his leg kick. Small’s numbers are outstanding, especially for a guy facing the top hitters in the country each weekend as an SEC starter 48 IP, 29 H, 12 BB, 79 K, 2.06 ERA, 1.74 OBA.

      or

      * Matt Cronin (Arkansas LHRP) Cronin has used his big FB (93-95 T 96) with good downward plane and a plus (12 to 6) CB (75-78) to dominate as the Razorback closer for three years. This season, Cronin is 14.1 IP, 5 H, 8 BB, 24 K, 0.63 ERA, 1.06 OBA. He could be a very fast mover through the Phillies system (maybe, if everything goes right, they even aggressively try to get him to CBP by this fall).

      1. Round 4 …

        * Cooper Johnson (C Ole Miss) I listed him as a 5th rounder last week. I’m moving him up to a fourth rounder this week even though fangraphs doesn’t even list him on their draft board (there are over 260 prospects included on their board). I asked Kiley McDaniel (in his chat) about Johnson, and he said they may be adding him near the bottom of their list.
        I’ve posted numerous time already that Johnson is one of my favorite players for June’s draft. He may be the top defensive backstop in the country, and the bat hasn’t been too bad this season .295/.381/.511. He was just named to the Buster Posey Award Watch List, given to the best catcher in college baseball.

        or

        * Aaron Schunk (3B/RHP Georgia) Schunk is one of the best/most productive two way players in college baseball. As the Bulldogs’ closer this season, Schunk is 17 IP, 10 H, 3 BB, 14 K, 10 saves. However, Schunk will be drafted as a 3Bman. Here is a piece of a D1 Baseball.com scouting report on Schunk’s summer performance on the Cape:
        “At six-foot-two, 205 pounds, he’s got the prototypical size for a third baseman and has the tools to fit there as well. Plus arm, throws easy. Sure hands and agile feet.
        Above average-to-plus present raw power to his pull side, yet it does not transfer to game due to a line drive swing path and his current approach of using the big part of the field. Zero home runs in 133 plate appearances this summer and just three in 267 plate appearances last spring. However, he was the best breaking ball hitter with authority that I saw this summer. Tracked and squared several quality sliders, one for extra bases. Showed good rhythm and used his lower half well in his swing. His upper half got pushy at times as he tried to stay in the middle of the yard and served the ball to center. Will need to develop greater lift in his swing and more of a pull attitude to get to all of his raw juice.”
        So far in 2019, Schunk is slashing .323/.360/.519 5 HR, 11 BB/HBP, 16 K in 133 AB.

        or

        * Davis Wendzel (3B Baylor) is going for the Justin Turner look. He’s 6’0″, 200 lbs, and he’s got the long hair and long unkempt beard. On the field, Wendzel is a “gamer”. He’s a very good defensive player (has played some 2B as well). Wendzel has average tools across the board, yet produces big numbers .383/.500/.592. He’s more of a gap hitter (13 doubles) than HR hitter (6 long balls) because of a linear bat path. Wendzel is another guy who “controls the strike zone”. In 2019, he’s got more BB/HBP (31) than K’s (24). Finally, he’s got only average speed, yet he’s stolen 11 bases in 12 tries.

          1. Round 5 …

            * Jared Horn (RHP Cal) I suggested Horn as a fourth rounder last week. Kiley McDaniel told me (again in his chat this week) that Horn’s stuff is down froom his HS senior season (2016) when he was one of the top prep arms to go to college.
            I saw some of Horn’s start on Saturday (8 IP, 1 R, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K). His velo was 89-92. That’s way down from the mid 90’s FB he threw in HS. However, Horn has just recently returned from an emergency apendectamy that kept him out of action for the first month of the season. I’d take him and expect/hope his stuff ticks back up as he regains his health.

            1. Round 6 …

              * Bodi Rascon (HS LHP) I mentioned him last week. Rascon is a tall, projectable (6’5, 200 lbs) lefty who has an Oklahoma St commitment. Johnny Almaraz usually looks for these kind of prep pitchers around this part of the draft.

            2. Senior Sign …

              * Joe Corbett (RHP West Texas A&M) Big (6’5″, 215 lbs) kid who racks up K’s while limiting BB’s. This season, Corbett is 59 IP, 39 H, 12 BB, 92 K, 1.53 ERA, .182 OBA.

            3. Day 3 …

              Last year, Johnny Almaraz redrafted Matt Kroon. He took Kroon in 2017 (30th round), but failed to sign him. Almaraz liked him so much, he took Kroon again in 2018 (18th round) and was able to get his signature.
              Here are a couple of candidates for being redrafted (on day 3) this summer:

              * Daniel “DJ” Carpenter (6’7″, 190 lbs) RHP taken in the 15th round last summer. Carpenter’s HS teammate Brandon Ramey (30th round) was also picked by Johnny A. Ramey signed with the Phillies. Carpenter, instead, decided to attend a JUCO. This season at Central Arizona College, Carpenter has registered 16.1 IP, 9 H, 16 BB, 22 K, 2.76 ERA. As a HS senior, Carpenter threw upper 80’s. I have no scouting report on him at Central Arizona College, but he appears to have grown an inch and gained 5 lbs in the past 12 months.

              * Jake Smith is another tall, thin (6’5″, 175) projectable RHP taken by the Phils last summer in the 21st round. He was originally committed to play for UNC Wilmington, but decided to go the JUCO route instead. He’s throwing for Chipola College this season where he is 19 IP, 19 H, 11 BB, 25 K. As a HS senior, reports had Smith sitting 89-92 and bumping 95.

            4. BTW … I just noticed the Cooper Johnson bomb I included was launched off of Matt Cronin, maybe the best closer in college baseball and the kid I have listed as a 3rd round possibility. You gotta love Cooper Johnson !!!

        2. Nice to see Aaron Schunk mentioned. I would love to see him as a Phillies prospect. Great young man. I coached for and against him when he and my son were playing youth baseball and you could tell he had the gift. He just excelled at every aspect of the game. I will cheer for Aaron whichever team drafts him.

          1. Deacon Phil … I’ve seen some interviews of Schunk. As you mentioned, he seems like a great kid. Very mature and intelligent. The only knock on him is his love for Chipper Jones 🙂

            Don’t know if you follow that Georgia team in its entirety (I’m assuming you’re a Wake Forrest fan from your name), but they are really loaded. Besides Schunk, Cam Shepherd should get picked (probably day three). And that pitching staff is historically good/great. Tony Locey is a day two pick this June. But Hancock and Wilcox could both go top 10 overall in 2020.

            They played Tennessee last night to open a big SEC series. Schunk had three hits, Shepherd had two. Hancock was outstanding (8 IP, 2 R, 5 H, 0 BB, 9 K on just 90 P), even though he took the loss. Tennessee threw Garrett Crochet (another first rounder in 2020) and brought Andrew Schultz (has hit 102 MPH this season) out of the BP. Collecting three hits off those two Volunteer arms makes Schunks’ three hits all that more impressive !

            1. You are right about me being a wake Forest grad. I don’t follow college baseball too closely but I do try to watch Aaron play every once in a while because I know him and he’s such a great young man. Also, my son hit his only HR off of Aaron when they were about 12 or 13.

          2. Jim … I’ve tried posting this a number of times. I think the name of one or two of the Georgia pitchers is holding it up. I’m going to try again to post this making a change to the name(s). Please just dump all the other attempts at posting this. Thank you.

            Deacon Phil … I’ve seen some interviews of Schunk. As you mentioned, he seems like a great kid. Very mature and intelligent. The only knock on him is his love for Chipper Jones 🙂

            Don’t know if you follow that Georgia team in its entirety (I’m assuming you’re a Wake Forrest fan from your name), but they are really loaded. Besides Schunk, Cam Shepherd should get picked (probably day three). And that pitching staff is historically good/great. Tony Locey is a day two pick this June. But Emmerson Hanc*ck and Cole Wilc*x could both go top 10 overall in 2020.

            They played Tennessee last night to open a big SEC series. Schunk had three hits, Shepherd had two. Hanc*ck was outstanding (8 IP, 2 R, 5 H, 0 BB, 9 K on just 90 P), even though he took the loss. Tennessee threw Garrett Crochet (another first rounder in 2020) and brought Andrew Schultz (has hit 102 MPH this season) out of the BP. Collecting three hits off those two Volunteer arms makes Schunks’ three hits all that more impressive !

  5. Hinkie here is where i get confused with this kids. just off stats. Jake Smith playing for small college if i am correct has allowed 30 runners in 19 innings. not to me great numbers.

  6. rocco … with those two potential day three re-drafts (Carpenter and Smith), it’s all about projection. They’re both young, tall, and skinny. They have lots of room to fill out and see their stuff get better as they age and mature. Get them at a reasonable price, put them on a nutrition/weight training program, let the team’s development staff get to work with them.

    1. Speaking of re-drafts … I don’t have a BA subscription, but apparently they have posted another mock draft. This one has Johnny Almaraz re-drafting Logan Davidson https://thatballsouttahere.com/2019/04/11/phillies-ba-projects-college-shortstop-2019-mlb-draft/.
      The team selected Davidson in the 30th (?) round of their famous/infamous 2016 draft. Davidson didn’t sign. He, instead, honored his commitment to Clemson where he’s had a good (not great) career.
      Davidson is a tall, lanky (6’3″, 185 lbs) switch hitting SS, who should be able to stay at the position. During his college career, he’s shown a good glove, good arm, above average speed, and plus power. His problem has always been the K% (career 20%). He’s enjoying his best season at Clemson this year .302/.419/.595, 9 HR, 27 BB/HBP, 31 K.
      Davidson also gets knocked for two straight miserable summers on the Cape with a wood bat .202/.304/.266 in 2017 and 2018 combined.

      1. If anyone has a BA subscription, could you tell me if they have Thomas Dillard and JJ Goss in the first round? Where do they put Hunter Bishop? And how high do they have the college arms (Lodolo, Manoah, Kirby, and Zack Thompson) going?

      2. I cant see him drafting this kid. Look at his numbers with a wood bat. but i have little faith in Johnny A drafts

        1. moffo, this is not the place to disparage previous drafts or give you opinion on them. This is for intelligent discussion on the upcoming draft.

      3. Hinkie…with a boatload of college and HS arms that will be available at the 14th pick….if the Phillies go position player again, it could be a real disaster for the director if there is another less than stellar performance by the player.
        With college position players you have a max window of about three and half minor league years, or even a year less, before one can get a very good idea if it is a hit or miss pick.

        1. Romus … I hear what you’re saying, but to be honest, this draft is not really strong on arms. Lodolo and Manoah are the two college arms that are certain top 15 picks. Kirby is moving up. Zack Thompson has good numbers, but I’m not in love with him.
          The prep arms (I like Goss, and Matt Allen is gaining traction) could be good value picks, but I just don’t see Johnny A taking one because of their volatility.

          Next year’s draft is loaded with college arms. It could be deep enough in arms that a really good one becomes available to the Phillies near the end of the first round.

          Here are some big time names/arms for 2020:
          Emerson Hancock (Georgia)
          Cole Wilcox (Georgia)
          Joe Boyle (Notre Dame)
          J.T. Ginn (Mississippi St)
          Tanner Burns (Auburn)
          Reid Detmers (Louisville)
          Garrett Crochet (Tennessee)
          Asa Lacy (Texas A&M)
          Hugh Fisher (Vanderbilt)

          The last four on that list are LH.

  9. v1 … Manoah is my guy. He needs to be under serious consideration for the Phillies. However, if he keeps pitching like this, he might end up getting scooped up before 1-14.
    As I mentioned last week, the Phillies could draft Manoah, and immediately send him to Clearwater to work out of the BP. He’s got the two plus pitches (FB & SL) that he could maybe make it to CBP as a late inning reliever by the end of this summer. The team could then have him back in a minor league (probably Reading) rotation to start 2020. Same thing the Royals did with Brandon Finnegan a few years ago.

  11. I have some things ready to go for this weeks draft thread.
    I’m going to post them here, and then I can just re-post them in this week’s thread when it becomes available.

    Weekend recap for some pitchers who could get drafted by Johnny Almaraz:

    Alek Manoah continues to impress. On Friday night, he made mincemeat of Texas Tech’s hitters. WVU’s large, intimidating RHP tossed a complete game 9 IP (127 P “no bueno, coach”), 0 R, 4 H, 0 BB, 15 K. He K’d Tech’s Josh Jung (a probable top 10 pick) twice, and held him hitless in 4 AB’s. For the season, Manoah is 60.2 IP, 38 H, 15 BB, 80 K, 2.08 ERA, 1.82 OBA.

    Elon’s George Kirby is another first round possibility for the Phillies. The 6’5″, 201 lb RHP had no problem with Delaware yesterday 6.0 IP 1 R, 1 H, 2 BB, 7 K. So far in 2019, Kirby has totaled 55.2 IP, 46 H, 5 BB, 65 K, 2.91 ERA, .218 OBA.

    Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson beat Ole Miss yesterday by going 6 IP, 2 R, 5 H, 5 BB, 8 K. He K’d Thomas Dillard (one of the best hitters in college baseball) twice. Thompson is now 55.2 IP, 38 H, 19 BB, 82 K, 2.10 ERA, .193 OBA this season.

    Barring an injury, Nick Lodolo is not going to make it to 1-14. The TCU lefty had no problem with Seton Hall this weekend 7 IP (94 P), 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K. Lodolo is now 60.1 IP, 42 H, 12 BB, 74 K, 1.34 ERA, .196 OBA this year.

    1. Also wanted to mention the performances from a couple of other college pitchers I have been mentioning for the Phillies post round one.

      Ethan Small (possible 3rd rounder) mowed down Alabama on Friday night. The impressive Mississippi State left hander went 6.0 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 15 K. This season, Small has been “big” 54.0 IP, 32 H, 15 BB, 94 K, 1.83 ERA, .170 OBA.

      Jared Horn (maybe a 4th or 5th rounder) had his best start as a colegian. The big RHP dominated Arizona 8 IP (114 P), 2 ER, 6 H. 0 BB, 9 K. The former HS All American is 31 IP, 23 H, 4 BB, 19 K, 2.03 ERA, .213 OBA.

      1. Jackson Rutledge and Carter Stewart are the top two JUCO pitchers. Rutledge is getting Nate Pearson comps (about the same size, mucho velo, JUCO RHP’s)

        1. A little bit on some top prep arms:

          North Jersey’s Jack Leiter (son of Al, nephew of Mark, cousin of Mark Jr) is maybe the most polished HS arm and a first round talent, but has a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. I was surprised to read this report on his velo.

          JJ Goss (one of my favorites) is on quite the roll. Last week, he tossed a perfect game. This week, he wasn’t perfect, but he was very, very good.

          1. I was high on Jack Leiter in late Feb……he will be a first round selection….wonder though if his Vandy commit wilt derail him from turning pro.

        2. Was going to ask you about Rutledge. A recent mock said he could be a sleeper pick for us, and that his upside is tremendous despite his current rawness. I like him, but we tend to draft on the conservative side. Thoughts?

  12. Here is the latest mock draft from CBS Sports’ Jeff Ellis.
    He has the Phillies selecting UNC 1Bman Michael Busch. He lists Jackson Rutledge as an alternative/sleeper pick.
    https://247sports.com/mlb/scouting/ContentGallery/2019-MLB-Mock-Draft-20–131133657/#131133657_15
    Bush is slashing .282/.448/.557, 9 HR, 41 BB/HBP, 21 K.

    Last week, BA mocked Clemson SS Logan Davidson to the Phils. Davidson was drafted but went unsigned by Johnny A in 2016. He is slashing .302/.411/.604. The 6’3″, 185 lb switch hitter has slugged 10 homers this season and has totaled 37 in his three years at Clemson.

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