2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, February 4, 2019

As promised, here is a thread for discussion of the amateur draft and J2 signing period that are about 4-5 months down the road.   I’m providing this space for those who are ready to enter discussion about this year’s crop of prospects.  You can place video, scouting reports, or just comments here.  I’ll create a menu potion above to collect these articles all in one place for easy access through the spring.

30 thoughts on “2019 Amateur Draft and J2 Discussion, February 4, 2019

  1. If the Phils sign Bryce Harper, do they lose their #1 draft pick? I know that if they sign Machado they don’t because he was traded mid-year. The rules on this sort of thing get tweaked all the time so I’m just not sure. I’m assuming those are still the rules since they lost their 1st and 2nd round pick last year for signing Santana and Arrieta. I’m pretty sure the Nationals would get a comp pick between the 1st and 2nd round.

    1. CBA:
      ArticleXX…Reserve System…B-Free Agency…4-Compensation…(c)-B- Signing Club
      ….page 95/96
      ” if the Signing Club was a CBT Payor in the Contract Year (as defined in
      Article XXIII) that encompasses the most recently completed
      championship season, it shall forfeit its second-highest and
      fifth-highest available selections in the next Rule 4 Draft, and
      it shall have its international Signing Bonus Pool for the next
      international signing period reduced by $1 million.”
      http://www.mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5450407.pdf

      1. That seems like an accurate post, Romus, but perhaps not applicable since the Phils were not a CBT payer last year…. if one believes MLBtraderumors’ break down of what each MLB team would lose if signing each free agent it would be the 2nd highest pick and 500K international money… ( I cut and paste from https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/which-draft-picks-each-team-would-lose-by-signing-a-qualified-free-agent-2.html) :All Other Clubs: Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

        These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground, but it would sting for a team like the White Sox to sacrifice a pick in the 40s.

        What happens if a team signs two of these six free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

        1. I(Heart) …yes saw that…I overlooked that.
          And you are correct…just as happened with Santana and Arrieta last year….Phillies would face the same penalties if they sign besides Harper,. another QO FA.

        2. I)heart)….if the Phillies decide to sign Keuchel…….it would be like last year…..since the Astros offered him a QO.
          Moustakas…no….KC offered him, he turned it down, then resigned for $6.5M, taking a cut of $11M on resigning with them…. and then KC traded him to the Brewers mid-season….I think Boras screwed up there with Moose.

    2. Again 1st round picks are protected that is how we got Bohm with the 3rd overall pick.

      You would lose the 2nd pick however for Harper and correct nothing if you end up with just MM.

  2. I am very interested in the content within these posts. Our drafting has been poor at the top but I think we have found some nuggets at the lower picks.

    Is our philosophy sound at spreading the money throughout the picks to get better quality instead of one stud?

    1. You be the 20/20 hindsight GM. Who is the stud you think we should have taken? I looked at the 2015 draft. the Phils took ‘C’ Randolph #10. Of the 9 guys taken before him 7 have played at least a little in the Majors. Only 1 of those 9 was a high schooler. His debut was nothing to write home about. But the real decision has to be made after the 10th pick. Who would you have taken? After the 10 slot, 8 guys of the 32 chosen (including Comp Picks) have played in the show so far. 2 of them were HS’ers. Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka, both with the Braves, were the 2. Neither played more than in September and they weren’t that good but they did play in the big leagues. Would you have chosen one of them over ‘C’? The only guy who had a decent WAR was Walker Buehler for the Dodgers. A 3.3 WAR over 2 seasons. A very nice year last year with a 2.96 ERA and a .961 WHIP in 23 starts and a relief appearance. He’ll also be turning 25 when ‘C’ turn 22. Is this the guy you would take? Not a bad choice but he was taken with the 24th pick. Was he on the radar when the Phils picked 10? I remember Tyler Stephenson, a HS catcher, being on the radar. He was picked 11. He hasn’t played above A+ yet. He’ll also be 23 in August. He might have been a very good pick but is he the stud you wanted?

      I just picked 2015 because that was far enough away that some players should start to show who they really are, especially the College guys. Was 2015 a bad year or is it a normal 4 years ago trend? Does ‘C’ have time to pick it up? Will he pick it up? Maybe the development team in the Phil’s organization has stunted him a bit or a lot? I still see hope for ‘C’. I don’t think he’s going to develop a power bat but he’ll stroke a few HRs and possibly get back to the near .300 BA. Will he play in the Philly OF? 2 years from now will give us all we need to know. Possibly 1 year could be enough.

      1. Just wanted opinions on Phillies philosophy and if it appropriate in building a strong minor league system.

        1. I expect the Phillies draft philosophy is the same as pretty much ever other team, take the best player you can, especially with their 1st round pick. I think too often people get fooled by the idea that teams take a lesser player in the 1st round so they can give more money to a player in the 15th. IF a team really wants a guy they took in the 15th round that badly wouldn’t they just draft him higher and not risk losing a star so they can save money for later?

          The only time I think teams draft for money reasons is when they take a 4-year college players in the bottom ten as a way to make sure they have enough $$$ to sign players picked above to higher than slot if needed. That doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t think the college guy is a good choice at that point but they know he has little bargaining power.

          In years like when the Phillies drafted Moniak, many who want someone else make the claim the player was taken for financial reasons rather than because the team thought he was the best player available at 1.1. My opinion is that the Phillies took Moniak at 1.1 because they thought he was the best player in a year where there was no clear-cut #1 that year. That they were able to get him committed to less than full slot just meant they could be more aggressive with other players.

          If it had been a year with a Strausburg/Harper I expect that is who the Phillies would have drafted, regardless of pool money…

      2. Unrealistic to expect a mid- or late- first rounder H.S. pick from 2015 to have had any MLB impact in 2018. The key questions are how well have they done in the minors and what is their projection going forward. C hasn’t shown well in the minors thus far, although there was a glimmer of hope in second-half 2018. The projection is not good: a slow, poor fielding, LF/1B/DH only guy with little power, who still needs to consistently demonstrate the hit skills we drafted him for. It was a bad pick. A defensively limited LF shouldn’t be a first rounder unless he is an absolute stud with the bat. And, the Phillies weren’t required to draft a HS kid or their 3rd OF among very recent first round picks. Given where the Phillies are in the development cycle, a collegian would have made more sense.

  3. Correction…Phillies were not a CBT payor…they never busted it…..so penalty for signing only Harper is only the 2nd highest draft pick, they keep their 5th, and only $500K from the international bonus allocation.

  4. I saw somewhere the Phils linked to Rece Hines who may be an excellent player, however philosophically I hope the Phils diverge from their drafting philosophy of the past 4 years and “grow the arms” By that I mean not just draft pitchers but draft pitchers with TOR potential…. the type you have to pay major financial and/or draft capital to acquire later. But other than maybe Stinson does anyone know of a pitcher who could have TOR potential in this draft. Is it worth the Phils doing what the Braves did last year…..just not sign their pick so they get an extra in 2020?

  5. Johnny A. seemed to prefer a position player with solid hitting fundamentals as his Rd 1 picks since he took over the domestic scouting —- an approach an i seem to contradict since I prefer the high risk power arms, but I’m just a fan.

    For 1.14 pick in 2019 R4, my early preference are Graeme Stinson (who I expect to be picked in Top 12), Nick Lodolo and Matthew Lugo.

    17 yo and 2-way prospect Spencer Jones will be an intriguing option as well.

  6. Al Leiter’s boy Jack from a north NJ HS is someone who may be there at 14.

    https://www.mlb.com/cut4/al-leiters-son-threw-high-school-no-hitter/c-279472742

    “He did a great job pitching to contact,” said Delbarton head coach Bruce Shatel. “His fastball was sitting around 93, he had great bite to his slider, and his breaking ball was sharp.”

    …and this was done as a junior last season. This year he should be stronger with a higher sustained velocity and possible better breaking pitches.
    Hope he is working on a change-up..that would be icing on the cake.

    Assume a pitcher is the Phillies selection this year after 4 straight years of position players.

    1. Even 4 straight years of meh position players?

      I have hope for Moniak, but Haseley is likely a 4th OF, Bohm is a virtual unknown and not likely a future 3B. And who was the other? Oh, Randolph?

      1. Wow Haseley a 4th OF IDK I think that is more his floor. What if he turned out to be Nick Markakis which is a comp I kind of like for him.

        1. DMAR…kind of agree.
          He can flat out hit the ball for contact and will develop the power in time…maybe only 12-15 HR power…180 ISO…. but with his contact ability could be a very good CFer in the Johnny Damon/Jacoby Ellsbury mode eventually.

          The hang-up i can see happening…..he does not profile the part as a corner OFer….so it is just CF for him…and with Moniak and Muzziotti right behind him, and I assume Harper in RF and Cutch in LF, with Doobie and Quinn… for the next foreseeable something will have to give.

    1. The rankings will change and other rankings more trustworthy than MLB, but this is set up for Phillies: 10 of first 14 are position players, then 2 LHPs.

  7. First, many thanks to Jim for offering this thread dedicated to the draft and the J2 market.

    As I’ve been posting, the Phillies are selecting in a place (1-14) that tends to be a sweet spot for high end (and sometimes sliding) prep players. Over the last three years, guys like Jason Groome, Alex Kirilloff, Forrest Whitley, Blake Rutherford, Shane Baz, Trevor Rogers, Nick Pratto, Mathew Liberatore, and Nolan Gorman have been picked between 1-12 and 1-19.
    The Phillies do not typically draft HS pitchers in the first round. In fact, since selecting prep arms three times in four years (Brett Myers in 1999, Gavin Floyd in 2001, and Cole Hamels in 2002) near the turn of the century, the club has only chosen two HS arms in the first round (not including comp picks between rounds one and two). Those picks, of course, were Kyle Drabek in 2006 and Jesse Biddle in 2010.

    This could be the year that changes. There are a group of three prep arms and a recent former top HS thrower who are all projected to go around the 1-14 spot. Who are they?

    * Carter Stewart … was picked by the braves last year, but didn’t sign after Atlanta discovered ligament damage to his right (throwing) wrist. Stewart was the top HS pitcher on many boards last summer. His FB had climbed to 96 MPH, and he featured some of the highest spin rates in the history of the draft. His hammer CB was rated better than any of the college pitchers coming out.
    After not signing with Atlanta, Stewart enrolled in a Florida JUCO. That means he’ll be available again this June. MLB.com has Stewart rated #7. Fangraphs lists him at #12.

    * Daniel Espino … gets Hunter Green comps because of his velo (upper 90’s). The RHP is originally from Panama. He also gets high grades for his CB and SL. Here’s what the Fangraphs duo of Longenhagen and McDaniel report: “Hardest-throwing high schooler in the class also has two nasty breaking balls, but you have to reconcile with his atypical mechanics.” Espino is ranked #13 by MLB.com, #21 by Fangraphs, and the #3 prep player by Perfect Came.org.

    * Brennan Malone … is another hard throwing RHP. His velo is currently a tick below Espino, but Malone is a little taller and thinner so there’s still some projection in him. Malone is ranked #10 by MLB.com. #20 by Fangraphs, and the #4 prep prospect by Perfect Game.org.

    * Spencer Jones … is the lone LHP on this list. He’s currently behind the first three arms I’ve listed, but Jones has all kinds of projection. He’s a stringbean (6’7″, 200 lbs), and until this summer, he was primarily a 1Bman. During the summer showcases, Jones took to the mound and showed a low 90’s FB and a really good CB. The other thing to note on the Phillies and Spencer Jones is … he played with Mickey Moniak in HS in San Diego. Jones is ranked #19 by MLB.com and #15 by Fangraphs.

    I like Malone and Jones the best, but all of these four young pitchers could go near the 1-14 pick. As a matter of fact, this mock draft https://medium.com/minor-league-madhouse/2019-mlb-mock-draft-3-0-c87d68f4ac1f from Minor League Madhouse.com has Stewart going at 1-13, Jones being picked at 1-15, Malone selected at 1-16, and Espino going at 1-17.

        1. Also wanted to highlight a sleeper HS pitcher that I like a lot. I saw RH JJ Goss throw in the Perfect Game Showcase a few months ago. I think he could climg draft boards and be another possibility for the Phillies at 1-14 by the time June rolls around.

    1. I expect Espine, Malone and Stewart to be gone when it’s time for the Phillies to make their pick. I also mentioned about Spencer Jones as an intriguing pick. I will not be surprised if Johnny A. stick with a position player at 1.14 and draft Matthew Lugo.

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