Phuture Phillies 2019 Reader Poll #16 – Kevin Gowdy

Kevin Gowdy was your selection as the #16 prospect in the Phillies’ organization.  It was a very close race with just 4 votes separating the top 3 vote recipients.

Gowdy received 28 of the 177 votes cast (15.82%).  Dylan Cozens received 25 votes (14.12%).  Simon Muzziotti received 24 votes (13.56%), Paul Owens Award winner David Parkinson received 18 votes (10.17%), and Darick Hall received 10 votes (5.65%).  Twenty-five guys shared the remaining 72 votes.

Gowdy was the Phillies 2nd round pick in the 2016 Amateur Draft out of Santa Barbara High School.  He signed on June 22nd.

There’s not really much to write about Gowdy.  He has not pitched the past two seasons, and was injured for much of his first season.

Gowdy made three starts in July of 2016 before he was sidelined by an injury for 5 weeks. He returned to throw one inning on August 27th and two playoff innings on September 6th.  His career, including those 2 post season innings is a cumulative 11.0 innings.  Prior to his two-year absence, Gowdy had a low 90s fastball with a change up and slider.

He should be ready to go this season.  He threw two-thirds of an inning on a pitch count at the end of Instructs.  No idea where he starts.

The poll for the next prospect will be posted in a separate thread.

Here are the complete results for this poll.

26 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2019 Reader Poll #16 – Kevin Gowdy

  1. Can someone who voted for Gowdy this high explain the rationale? I am rooting for the kid, but there is no chance he is our 16th best prospect.

    1. You could get 28 different reasons it would appear. Potential is a powerful word.

      Agree….I like him, but until he does something he is at the bottom of the 20s , early 30s for me.

    2. Prospect rankings are more subjective than objective due to difference personal bias and basis of the rankings. Just like what Romus said, we can get a number of different reasons why people rank a certain prospect high or low and it all boils down to what aspect(s) a person value the most and prospects like Gowdy, Cozens, Hall, Parkinsons, Castillo, Duran (just to name a few) are prospects that we will see a big delta in various prospect rankings.

      I have Kevin Gowdy at #28 as of 1/1/19 and jumped him to #14 as of 1/15/19 after I received info that the arm looks strong, he can still throw his potential plus 3-pitch mix although the velocity and command are not there yet. I define prospect as synonymous with “potential” so physical projection (age and body size) and potential (high upside) ranks highs in my prospect rankings.

      I’m certain that Hinkie ranks Kevin Gowdy in this Top 10 based on what I explained above and Hinkie believes that Gowdy will most likely reach his upside.

      1. “after I received info that the arm looks strong, he can still throw his potential plus 3-pitch mix although the velocity and command are not there yet.”

        >> Can you share that information?

    3. v1again–

      I agree, little than pre-draft rep to evaluate Gowdy on, and even then he didn’t have enough fastball velocity. Two years is a long time to be out. To me, it’s a big red flag. Gowdy has to show he’s healthy and he has enough fastball before I’m going to rank him anywhere near this high. I think Moniak is a large part of the reason Gowdy gets placed this high. He was a poor 1.1 and the explanation is that we saved money and also signed Gowdy. So if Gowdy is rated where he should be, that just makes the potential draft yield from our worst season EXTREMELY underwhelming and makes are baseball-side management at the time very suspect.

      I’m also surprised Cozens came in second. The power and OPS were there at Allentown, but he really failed in SSS Philadelphia audition. I’d write that off as SSS, but for the year as a whole he struck out an astonishing almost half of his ABs. That is exactly the sort of hitter than MLB pitchers can easily exploit. At least he walks a lot.

      I like Llovera and Muzziotti here.

    4. I’ll take a stab at this, since there is push back on his votes. I can’t speak for everyone in the Gowdy group (28 votes), but possibly some common thoughts are:

      Mlb pipeline had him at 25 out of 30 with the injury history as of mid season rankings last year. He was higher than that before ( 2017)so his floor should be around 25ish. I’ve had him higher than most, but was not alone (somewhere in the 10-13 selection Gowdy was trending.) I’d say he is around where he should be, maybe a few more spots down, 18ish. I think that is a good baseline to start the convo. If you’re not bullish on him, the lowest I could see him is 35ish, swinging the opposite way, but with the news of him ready to go, potential, pedigree/draft predictions he should be above #25 imo.

      For those that picked him, The pick is mostly based off potential potential. You can argue against, but his ceiling when health is higher than most imo. I understand the injury history (Bicep tendinitis & Tommy John), the timing of the injuries is double whammy, as it most likely caused him to miss more time. Pitchers recover from this surgery all the time now, it’s not the death sentence it used to be.

      All that should be behind him, so I place him around where he was projected to be at when healthy. We all hope he is healthy, and word is that he is ready to go. Obviously a big year for him.

      For him, I look at his success in high school, his projection at the draft, ceiling, and compare his pitches (to me were advanced at the time for HS). From all
      The pitchers in the system, I get the most excited about Sixto, Medina, Howard, Irvin, and Gowdy at this point. Their pitch movement, passes the eye test, looks transferable to the majors.
      I’d say that’s a decent reasoning for his selection in this area, even for those who disagree. Will have to agree to disagree on his ceiling/potential/health etc until midseason. I believe he is going to be a nice surprise this year, and his potential is somewhat forgotten.

      For further discussion and fun outside of the BH/MM saga, The knock on pushing Gowdy down the list is his health/lack of innings to evaluate past his potential/ceiling. If this is he cause, why didn’t Quinn fall off the radar? Or it’s lack of proving his potential – Bohm has a college track record, but he is still arguably a potential potential pick at this point, he is ranked #4 dispute his less than stellar showing. For sixto, his health is a concern as of now, we should have our fingers crossed on his health, I’d wonder those that don’t think Gowdy should be this high, how far does Sixto drop if he is hurt?(hypothetical) For me, he wouldn’t drop off the radar, but he’d take a hit on the list into the lower 7-10 range.

      Ok guys – throw the tomatoes!

      1. I”m not going to insist that Bohm show potential in SSS of rookie season after college season. If he doesn’t hit this year, he’s going be lower on the list next ranking — I don’t know if we’ll be doing a mid-season rank. I think the news on Bohm is generally positive: the big question was can he stay at 3B and the Phillies are now saying they believe he can. There seemed to be no serious ‘can he hit?” questions going into the draft.

      2. “Mlb pipeline had him at 25 out of 30 with the injury history as of mid season rankings last year. He was higher than that before ( 2017)so his floor should be around 25ish.”

        >>> well, that was before the draft picks entered the systems. So I don’t see how 25 is his floor.

        1. Currently he is sitting #25, with the new prospects figured in, minus the starts to their minor league career. Bohm is at #2.

          If your bullish on him, see reports that he is ready to go, moving him up from 25 to the 15-18 range would seem reasonable to me. If you’re not high on him, factoring in his down time, I can see an argument to bump him out of the top 30, to the 31-35 range, with the understanding once proven healthy, he’ll move up, and vice versa.

          I’m putting him higher based on what I stated before, hinkie put it more eloquently than I did. I agree with the notion, talent trumps all. IMO, the talent didn’t disappear with the injury, nor did his ceiling diminish to me as a result of his injury, so to m he gets ranked higher than healthier prospects with early success that have a lower ceiling/less talent. Until he proves his talent is not transferable to the minors, I’ll be high on him.
          A talent of his level, gets the benefit of the doubt from me. I’ve havent seen anything to discredit the draft projectionsz

          Again, off all the pitchers in the system, he is one of 5 that Impress me, and quite frankly pass the eye test.

            1. Very sobering statement from this HardballTimes article:

              “When we think about pitchers who have recovered from Tommy John surgery, our minds tend to lock onto the successful ones. Tommy John himself. A.J. Burnett. Adam Wainwright. Jordan Zimmermann. What is critical to understand is that one out of every five major pitchers who undergoes the operation never throws another pitch at that level. These are less familiar names, given their career-ending injuries. Ambiorix Burgos. Anthony Reyes. Macay McBride. Bill Simas. The most recent data suggest that one out of two major league pitchers who has Tommy John surgery will throw fewer than 100 innings the rest of his big league career. Bill Bray. B.J. Ryan. Taylor Buchholz. Victor Zambrano.”

            2. Odds are against him for sure, even if healthy. Let’s dig a litter deeper into the numbers, to find some sunshine for this kid vs the trend.

              The overall study shows the younger you are, the better the % chance of a positive outcome. The body heals & recovers better when younger. Not rocket science but he does have that going for him, in addition he has logged less miles on his arm, which can be a positive in the recovery. The negative is that he got seriously hurt from fewer innings. My guess is the prolong bicep tendinitis was likely a leading cause to his eventual TJ surgery.

              The 40% success rate study is based off players who are established by Age 16-23, no doubt weighted by those closer to age 23. Not sure who makes it to mlb by 16, realistically, you could say 18, is the lowest (unless they meant the minors). He had the surgery done at age 19. It helps his cause. Due to his age at the time of surgery, It’s probably fair to weight his percentage higher than a 40% success rate at 500+ innings. Postive spin, id be interesting to see the % for those under age 20, I’d venture that it could boost him closer to a 50/50 chance.

              Let’s see the results, the talent is there, the know how, and the Ambition. The kid had a good response to the recovery challenge. He seems up to beating the odds, and that is not always a given with patients. Mindset is an important factor in recovery.

              Let’s revisit in a few months. Will see where he is at. If he shows flashes of his precious talent level, I’ll keep him where he is at. If he struggles more than expected, I’ll
              Drop him back some and give him a year from there to get on track and before i start pushing him out of top prospects.

            3. All I am saying is, there are very good prospects in our system who are both healthy and have performed at higher levels. To just ignore the injury history and a complete lack of any success over the past 3 years seems crazy to me. I wish the kid the best of luck. But he is not our 16th best prospect. Certainly not our 10th best.

            4. I see your point, but weighted against ceiling level,I believe you can make a case. Agree to disagree scenrio. Every prospect who enters the system is a risk, with no guarantees, Healthy or not. The higher the ceiling the better to me. Pitcher vs positional players, I lean pitchers. All we can do is hope the prospects reach their ceiling, if So, a prospect like Gowdy is near the top. Let’s hope he recovers and reaches his potential. If.l not, I’m wrong that is fine, if I’ll take higher ceiling of Gowdy vs the safer lower ceiling health prospect. In a way, reminds me of Embid, different sport, but the ceiling vs ceiling player out, even against the recovery odds. This is not the only example, but it is one. Let’s hope those who voted for him are correct, that way we all benefit – the player, team, owners and fans

  2. I remember the promise thatGowdy came with when drafted. This year is his opportunity. I agree that projection is not everything and his being 16 is total projection. Listi is a good example of production overcoming pure projection. I will be following both this year. Good luck to both of them.

  3. Gowdy is #10 for me. I understand some people ranking him lower. Maybe you forget what kind of prep pitcher/draft prospect he was. Gowdy was a first round talent. The Phillies pushed him to the second round by promising him 3.5 million dollars. That was the 10th highest signing bonus in that draft. Gowdy got just about the same money Matt Manning at 1-9 and Jason Groome at 1-12 got. When drafted, Gowdy had a very projectable body. He was tall (6’4″), lean (170 lbs), and had wide shoulders (room for growth). He was already throwing 93-94 MPH, and had a plus SL and a plus CH. Just as importantly, Gowdy offered a very repeatable delivery that led to him being a consistent strike thrower. I’m not one to view TJ surgery as a career killer. I see it more as a speed bump. I was also very high on Jesus Luzardo in that 2016 draft. Luzardo slid to Washington in the third round because he was recovering from TJ. Luzardo has returned from the surgery stronger/better than ever. He is now the top LHP prospect in baseball. IMO, Kevin Gowdy can have a similar outcome. Because of the lack of innings, I understand Gowdy is still a high risk prospect. That’s why I can’t rank him above Sixto, Medina, Romero, and Howard. However, for me, Gowdy is also a very high reward/ceiling kid. That’s why I have him in front of guys with lower ceilings like DLS, Saurez, Seabold, Parkinson, and Stewart. IMO, Gowdy is more of a Francisco Morales with a better ability to throw strikes. Gowdy will almost assuredly be my break out prospect this season.
    Here’s my top 40 if you want a sense of the way I see them.

    1. Sixto Sanchez
    2. Adonis Medina
    3. Alec Bohm
    4. Jhailyn Ortiz
    5. Luis Garcia
    6. Spencer Howard
    7. Adam Haseley
    8. JoJo Romero
    9. Mickey Moniak
    10. Kevin Gowdy
    11. Francisco Morales
    12. Enyel De Los Santos
    13. Ranger Saurez
    14. Nick Maton
    15. Starlyn Castillo
    16. Rafael Marchan
    17. Dominic Pipkin
    18. Arquimedes Gamboa
    19. Simon Muzziotti
    20. Rodolpho Duran
    21. Mauricio Llovera
    22. Cornelius Randolph
    23. Kyle Young
    24. Will Stewart
    25. Cole Irvin
    26. Carlos De La Cruz
    27. Matt Vierling
    28. Connor Seabold
    29. Austin Listi
    30. Logan Simmons
    31. Bailey Falter
    32. Logan O’Hoppe
    33. Daniel Brito
    34. Jake Holmes
    35. Edgar Cabral
    36. Jonathan Guzman
    37. David Parkinson
    38. Colton Eastman
    39. Deivi Grullon
    40. Jake Scheiner

    1. To tac’s point above … I had Roman Quinn at #5 (I think) this time last year. Most posters felt that was too high because of Quinn’s inability to stay healthy. For me, if a kid has superior talent, I usually am willing to hang in there and dream on the player they can still become.

      1. There’s some truth to that for sure. I fairness to the many posters – myself included – his injury history is as long, consistent and varied as it gets. Everyone admits I think that he’s a top 5 system talent – but six straight seasons of serious injuries is cause for legitimate concern. Here’s to wishing him a healthy 2019.

      2. big difference between Quinn and Gowdy is that Quinn had already proven to be elite against high minor league talent when he plays. Gowdy has proven nothing at any level. He hasn’t pitched in 3 seasons.

        I never saw a report that had Gowdy sitting 93-94. All reports that I saw was he sat in the low 90s. He could hit 93 at max, but didn’t sit there.

        Here is an old report as an example http://riveraveblues.com/2016/04/2016-draft-kevin-gowdy-136504/

        I mean, I wish him the best, but i don’t understand the logic of simply ignoring the loss of 3 years of development.

        he pitched one inning (actually 2/3rds) in Fall Instructs. He K’d one guy, walked 2 and got a fly ball. Took 24 pitches to get 2 outs. and reports on his velocity were upper 80s. That seems like a guy a far way away from reclaiming his pre-draft levels, let alone where he should be as a 21 year old.

        again, i wish him well, and am very intrigued to see how he performs this year. It just seems like we are giving him a lot of the benefit of the doubt.

        1. I follow the draft pretty closely. There were numerous reports on Gowdy with the kind of stuff I posted above (up to 94, plus SL, plus CH).

          These links aren’t necessarily the ones I read three years ago, but they still include the info I shared above:

          * http://mlbtopprospects.com/2016/02/kevin-gowdy-mlb-draft-prospect/
          “Ranked No. 11 in the 2016 Perfect Game USA Top 500 High School Prospects list Gowdy was a 2015 Perfect Game USA first-team Underclass All-American and was also named to the Baseball America 2015 Area Code Games All-Tournament Team. Helping him earn those honors from Perfect Game he was ability to pitch effectively and command his 94-mph heater while also showing great offspeed pitches at Perfect Game All-American Classic.”

          * Here’s Gowdy’s page from Perfect Game.org https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=388486

            1. BA’s Hudson Belinsky on Kevin Gowdy from 2016:

              “Gowdy’s fastball works in the low 90s and has reached as high as 96. He commands the pitch well and it shows late finish.”

              “Gowdy throws a hard and deep, late-breaking slider with power and he can command it to either side of the strike zone.”

              “RHP Kevin Gowdy (1s) has a very athletic delivery, and has a black belt in Tae Kwon Do.”

    1. He could have a monster year at CLW this season.
      Anybody who could bomb 10 HRs in 150 or so PAs at Lakewood has legit power.
      Phillies are really loaded with exceptional catching prospects.
      And if you look at MLB’s Top 30 for the Phillies….not one single solitary catcher is listed….hard to believe.

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