2018 Draft Discussion: April 16th

2018 Draft

The Phillies have the third overall selection in the first round.  They forfeited their second and third round picks when they signed free agents Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta.

Their total bonus pool is only $8,858, 500.  Their total was reduced by over $2.25M of slot money with the two picks they lost.

Their complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  •   1st:       3  – $6,947,500
  •   4th:   107 –    $522,900
  •   5th:   137 –    $390,600
  •   6th:   167 –    $292,700
  •   7th:   197 –    $228,000
  •   8th:   227 –    $180,600
  •   9th:   257 –    $153,600
  • 10th:   287 –    $142,600

The pre-season top 10 for prospects was –

  1. Brady Singer, RHP
  2. Ethan Hankins, RHP
  3. Matthew Liberatore, LHP
  4. Nolan Gorman, 3B
  5. Shane McClanahan, LHP
  6. Nander De Sedas, SS
  7. Brice Turang, SS
  8. Casey Mize, RHP
  9. Ryan Rolison, LHP
  10. Jackson Kowar, RHP

Nothing new here from me.  I can’t offer anything to the conversation that you can’t discuss better.  This is just a place to keep all draft discussion undiluted by other conversations.

The comments section in the weekly open discussion had become very large with multiple discussions going on at once.  So, here is a discussion thread for draft talk only.

100 thoughts on “2018 Draft Discussion: April 16th”

  1. This is Klentak’s third draft, and the one that Phillies can’t afford to miss on. Not only are they down their 2nd and 3rd Rd picks, but also down 1 million in international money. So it’s imperative that they hit on that first pick. And that leads me to believe that they will go college selection heavy in the first 10 rounds. And knowing Almaraz’s love of hitters, probably a college bat first pick. I would prefer a college arm, someone that can be ready when Arietta comes off the books, and Sanchez and Medina are ready for the big leagues. I think the loss of the international money will hurt more than the loss of draft picks, so they had better be sure to get a quality player with that pick.

    1. Remember … Matt Klentak can still trade for competitive balance draft picks and international money. IMO … it’s a slam dunk he’ll acquire J2 dollars (probably on July 3rd). I’m not as certain he’ll pick up a comp pick(s). Although, I believe he has the excess arms and certainly the payroll flexibility to eat a bad contract (or two) to get his hands on one (or even two). This draft is almost universally viewed as being very deep. I have a list of players dancing around in my head the Phillies could/should be drafting between the first and fourth rounds. Hopefully, Klentak can get something done.

  2. The main thing is making sure the 1st round selection is affordable. Affordable means making sure that if the pick wants more than the slot, they’ll need to chose a bunch of $50K signees in the 4th through 10th rounds. If they draft someone who wants $8M, make sure the rest of the draft guys will take less so they can come up with the amount they need. Don’t lose the 1-3 pick because someone can’t do the math. Imagine if #1 decides not to sign, the slot money for the rest of the draft is under $2M. Giving up #2 and #3 has ramifications that could haunt them. I’m not saying it was wrong but it changes the entire draft strategy.

    1. bell…..”they’ll need to chose a bunch of $50K signees in the 4th through 10th round”…..that means college guys for the most part…..Ruben and his crew did that in 2015, almost exclusively thru out the whole draft…I believe the four HSer drafted Randolph, Williams, Picket and Falter were the only legitimate prospects drafted out of HS..
      So 4 thru 10 could be all college guys…lower leverage than HSers.

  3. Casey Mize was outstanding again this weekend. For the season, Mize is 63.0 IP, 37 H, 4 BB, 86 K !

    Looks like the Phillies are getting one of Mize, Nick Madrigal, or Alec Bohm.

    1. I’m good with those, Hinkie. Mize or a college bat. Not overly impressed with other arms as 1-3 options. Like Whitey Ashburn used to say, “I don’t like pitchers, Harry.”

      1. I’m still on the Logan Gilbert bandwagon, although some reports indicate that he gives up more fly balls than you would like to see from 1-3 guy.

        I’d still prefer Bohm (which I hope is pronounced “bomb”) over Madrigal due to his combination of hit tool + power.

        Mize just continues to dominate college pitching, so if he’s there at 1-3, I’d take him over Gilbert. But I think between the two teams ahead of us, he could well be gone (if the Tigers take that OF from Wisconsin, that could change things, of course).

  4. I’m annoyed that we passed on Senzel for Moniak, Gowdy and Stobbe, but I get the reason why we went that route.

    That being said, the recent hits in guys like Kingery and Hoskins and making great progress in he LA market can’t be overlooked (and I don’t think is overlooked).

    And I still have a decent amount of hope for Randolph.

  5. Here is a hot take…Johnny Almaraz is just guessing, does a poor job in projecting hit tool, and the Phillies should just take the top rated pitcher at #3.

    Here is my defense. In JA’s 3 drafts, he has drafted an outfielder who he said has an elite hit tool in the first round. He said both Randolph and Mickey were the best hit tools in the class, saying Mickey has a 70 bat. Now, I am not saying that they are busts (yet), but I can say one thing for certain, you will not find an example of a mlb hitter who has even a 60 hit tool who struck out as much in low minors as those guys. Just doesn’t happen. Elite hitters do not have high k rates in the low minors. Guys with huge power may show a high k rate. But no guys with 40 power and 60+ hit tools. For Mickey and C to end up with 60+ hit tools in the majors, they would have to turn out to be a statistical outlier. An ominous signs for sure. Worth noting that none of those picks are in the top 100 prospects for most lists including Keith Laws.

    Meanwhile, if the Phillies took the next pitcher selected after their picks, they would have 3 starting pitching prospects all in top 100 prospects in baseball. Note, there are pitchers taken further down that are even higher ranked, but I am excluding them as to not cherry pick. Simply saying, take the next pitcher taken.

    Here are the guys they would have had instead of C, Mickey and Haseley.

    – Kolby Allard – 20yo in AAA after dominating AA as a 19yo last year. He didn’t make Keith Law’s 2018 list for some reason after being ranked #26 in Keith’s mid season rankings, but is ranked top 50 by every other publication.
    – Ian Anderson #48 in Keith’s 2018 list.
    – Shane Baz #65 in Keith’s 2018 list.

    Who among us wouldn’t trade C, Mickey and Haseley for those three? I mean, that is a no brainer.

    In my view, it is much easier to grade a pitcher than grade a hitter, particularly a high school hitter. For pitchers, you grade the velocity, command/control and pitch movement. Those are aspects you can grade regardless of who the hitter is and what the outcome of the pitch is. But with hitters, particularly high school hitters, it is pure projection how the can handle breaking pitches.

    Add in the reality that our farm is light on top end starting pitching prospects, and it really is a no brainer. Take the highest rated starting pitching prospect at #3.

    1. Let’s take the #3 guy on this list posted above: https://2080baseball.com/2018/04/2018-mlb-draft-ranking-the-top-125/

      Jarred Kelenic OF Waukesha West (Waukesha, Wisc.)
      A true five-tool talent, Kelenic boasts plus speed, plus arm strength (98 mph from the outfield) and impact potential at the plate, including exit velos of up to 104 mph this spring.

      Seems really enticing. Who wouldn’t want a 5 tool outfielder. The problem is, he has faced high school pitchers in Wisconsin. It is pure guesswork whether he will be able to read and adjust to a breaking pitch. It is a complete roll of the dice.

      Meanwhile, here is the report on the #4 player on their board,

      Ethan Hankins RHP Forsyth Central (Cumming, Ga.)
      Perhaps the most dominant arm at the high school ranks during last summer’s showcase circuit, Hankins regularly dials-up his heavy fastball to the upper 90s, mixing in a quality mid-80s changeup and an 11-to-5 breaker that flashes above-average.

      Velocity, command and breaking ball movement are tools that are easy to project. I understand there are arm injury risks with pitchers. But most are able to respond to arm injuries without any drop off.

    2. @v1 – i agree with you. I was never a fan of the Randolph pick mainly because of his positional limitation and lack of power and Moniak and Haseley are “meeh” picks for me. I also expressed my opinion here for JA to draft an arm which is consistent to what McPhail said of growing arms and buying bats. Allard, Buehler and Nikorak in 2015, Groome and Whitley in 2016 and Baz in 2017.

      JA’s concept of someone is fundamentally sound. But he needs to open his eyes to all types of talent.

      1. Taking a hit tool only Outfielder 3 years in a row in the top 10 is a sign of someone who lacks big picture thinking IMO.

        1. I agree and it’s worse than that. In Randolph, he drafted a hit tool only outfielder who lacked significant speed and other tools and was therefore relegated to left field. Who wants an 18 year-old hit tool only left fielder?

          This raises the bar significantly from a hitting perspective because the player has no positional flexibility. Basically, it makes sense if you believe you are looking at the next Tony Gwynn or Rod Carew (both of whom, by the way, were fast and did have some positional flexibility) but how likely is it that the player turns into one of those hitters? The odds are like 50-1.

          It was a big picture screw up for sure. I didn’t get it when they drafted him and I still don’t get it.

          1. And, look, I don’t hate Randolph as a prospect. He might still make the major leagues and be okay, but you don’t take a guy 10th in the draft with the hope that he becomes okay.

      2. The Phillies curture maybe growing LA arms . They have signed quite a few high price arms in the 3 yrs.
        The Phillies have seemed to miss on some LA Batts .
        Draft the Bats grow the LA arms along with lower drafted pitchers.Randolph is what 20 yrs old in AA. He might be seeing the majors at the end of 2019 at 21. Which is faster then Jp.

    3. V–thank you for this post. You captured many of my sentiments. I don’t trust JA very much at this point: all three of his picks are similar in that they lack any “loud” tools and seem to be slightly overmatched at their respective levels. He’s too conservative, imo. That’s why, as much as we’re projecting on our favorite prospective prospect, he’ll probably just go with whomever he deems to be the “safest” option.

    4. JA, I believe, is on very thin ice – he has to be. And he wasn’t a Klentak/MacPhail hire, so they are not responsible for him and have no long term investment in him. Can you imagine how good our drafts would be if JA was as good as his job as Sal and his staff are at their jobs? Just saying.

      And, yes, I know about Kingery and of course he’s a great pick. But one good pick does not make up for possibly 3 consecutive blown top 10 picks. I hope I’m wrong, but it’s not trending in the best way.

    5. Great post. I don’t follow this like most on this site, but I heard Moniak didn’t strike out playing in CA, playing for USA baseball, etc. I heard Charlie loved him. Then he shows up in the minors and strikes out much more than expected.

      The only question is do the Phillies have enough bats in the minors to sustain their recent improvement in the farm system. Maybe their lack of success drafting bats forces them to draft more bats, especially with their history of developing pitchers.

  6. I still have reservations about Madrigal. He will play 2B only, and if Mize and Bohm are gone I like Rolison and Gilbert, and Hankins, despite his being in HS. Cole Hamels was drafted out of HS also, and it worked out very well.

    1. matt13…..agree on Madrigal.
      The Tigers of late have been rumored on Kelenic the HS OFer from Wisconsin….may be a smoke screen, however, but why at picking number one would be puzzling.
      But if they go that route….and the Giants lean pitcher…then Bohm would be available.
      Giants have had luck on HS pitchers in the past , so they may pass on Mize…..but thinking they will not since he could be a major league rotation by 2019. NLT 2020.

  7. IMO:
    (1) Projecting arms is much more difficult than projecting bats.
    (2) Projecting HS players is a heck of a lot more difficult than projecting college prospects.
    Therefore:
    The best/safest way to go when using high picks is draft college bats.

    First of all, very few amateur pitchers come with good command. They grow in to it.
    I do agree that control is something that can be projected. If a kid has a good K/BB rate, he’s more than likely not going to be different as a pro. However, velo is a whole different subject. Velo comes and goes (in many cases). College pitchers start just once a week. HS pitchers are on pitch limits. When a kid starts throwing every fifth day, many times he can’t match the velo he had as an amateur. Even in college, some of the best pitchers trend up and down. A year ago, most posters here claimed Brady Singer was definitely the 1-1 guy. At that time, he threw mid 90’s and touched the upper 90’s. A year later, Singer is mostly lower 90’s.

    Nothing is certain, but (for me) the best/most accurate way to go when drafting this high is to take a college hitter with a proven track record. Under this plan, the best candidate is Nick Madrigal, followed by Alec Bohm.

    Madrigal at Oregon State …
    frosh .333/.380/.456
    soph .380/.449 /.532
    junior .560/.593/.880 (in only 25 AB’s because of injury)

    Bohm at Wichita State …
    frosh .303/.346/.489
    soph .305/.385 /.519
    junior .350/.463/.625
    2017 Cape Cod .351/.399/.513

    Guys like Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Senzel all had proven (3 year) records of college success. Adam Haseley (BTW) had very good junior and senior seasons, but was pretty pedestrian as a frosh.

    All this said, Casey Mize is clearly the #1 guy in this draft. As I’ve posted a dozen times, Klentak and Almaraz should make him an above 1-1 slot offer (yes it can be done even w/o a second and third round pick). Maybe Detroit and SF want to restock their bottom dwelling farm systems with multiple high end/expensive prospects in this very deep draft. It can’t hurt to try.

    .

    v1 … a couple of weeks ago, you said you liked Shane McClanahan (I assume if Mize is gone). McClanahan has been bad his last two starts (9.2 IP, 11 ER, 7 H, 10 BB, 11 K). Not sure how you feel about him today, but that’s how fast things can change with a pitcher.

    2. I am not a scout. I don’t pretend to be. I am just looking at this with a macro perspective. My advice is take the best rated pitcher on the board that mixes a reasonable probability with high upside.

  8. Hinkie, I know you have been high on Madrigal for some time. Do you think he can play anywhere except 2B? If you don’t, doesn’t that change his value to the Phils vs. Bohm? We already can’t trade Cesar, unless he is given away, and part of Madrigal’s appeal is his proximity to the Majors. Unless I think he projects to be a better player than KIngery, I look elsewhere at 1.3. I value your opinion, my only concern is that I don’t want to select a guy that high with the thought of trading him. Kingery is my 2B going forward despite his ability to move around the field. I think he the future perennial All Star from the NL at 2B.

    1. matt13…..your logic on a Madrigal selection and concerns about surplus positioning at the big league level where he would be involved, actually borders on the philosophy of drafting for ‘need’ vs’ best player’.

  9. Madrigal played SS earlier in his career. If the Phillies believe Bohm is equal to Madrigal, or if there is a big enough gap in signing demands that makes them an equal value, then they could/should draft Bohm. However, if Madrigal is rated higher on their board and they will both accept the same bonus, then the Phillies should draft Nick Madrigal. I’ve mentioned the Astros 2015 draft before. Houston had Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa set in their MIF, yet they drafted 2Bman/SS Alex Bregman (their top rated player) with the 1-2 pick. Bregman developed the way they hoped, and the Astros made it work by moving Bregman to 3B. Before doing that, Houston had opportunities to deal Bregman for an established player.
    The Phillies can do different things if they pick Madrigal and he turns out to be a very good player. They could move Madrigal to another position (SS, 3B, LF), move Kingery to another position (3B, CF), trade Madrigal for a piece that helps put the Phillies over the top, or even trade CeHe if the right situation presents itself. Also, remember CeHe hits free agency after 2020. At the very least, he should bring the Phillies a compensatory draft pick (probably 31-35 overall) in 2021.

    1. Madrigal at 3rd or LF would project currently favorable with his hit tool. Not so much the power. But having someone in the lineup like that , rarely striking out and making contact with exceptional speed, would generate plenty of run production.
      As to Bohm, otoh, he is a 3rd base/LFer type with the power.
      But his K/BB ration is excellent also, for the big swing he has.
      That would be a tough decision to make if they decide to pass on pitching and instead go positional.

    2. The decision between Madrigal and Bohm might come down to exit velos and launch angles. Organization philosophy, now more than ever, will determine which player is best equipped to fit the plate approach being currently preached.

      Now, can anyone speak to the contrast between Madrigal and Bohm in that regard?

      1. Madrigal is only 40 power grade. So stands to reason his launch angle and exit velos may be less than the 55 grade power of Bohm. That may be an incorrect assumption on my part….but when you look at the MLB leaders in those categories….you are talking the Judges, Stantons, Trouts and Harpers of the world…all power guys.

          1. 8mark…the skinny on Bohm…..may be the next Troy Glaus, but with less of a defensive prowess at third…he is far from fleet of foot also…..but LF is always manageable I would assume if it came to it. The three positions that are most viable for him…3rd, 1st and LF.

      2. I posted these last week, but I’ll re-post them here. They’re (parts of) scouting reports on Madrigal and Bohm from Frankie Piliere (formerly of D1 Baseball.com, and currently a scout for the Mariners). They were written at the end of last summer (end of Cape Cod League and Team USA season).

        Nick Madrigal … “One of the most dynamic players in college baseball, Madrigal hit .380/.449/.532 with 20 doubles and 16 stolen bases to earn first-team All-America honors as a sophomore. Madrigal is an easy plus runner who can flash 70 run times up the line, and he puts his speed to good use on the basepaths. Team USA coach John Savage said Madrigal has “the highest baseball IQ that you can find,” and one scout called his instincts “so freakish.” That savvy shows up in all facets of his game. He has a quick first step in the middle infield that helps give him excellent range at second and short, though his average or slightly better arm is better suited for second. He’s a good enough defender to handle himself ably at either spot in pro ball, along the lines of David Eckstein. Offensively, Madrigal has a quiet, upright setup and a pronounced leg kick before unloading on the ball with surprising force. He’s a natural line-drive hitter who uses all fields effectively, and he has uncommon feel for centering balls on the barrel with regularity. His timing is exceptional, his pitch recognition is advanced, and he can handle fastballs on either side of the plate as well as quality breaking balls. He’s also gotten stronger during his Oregon State career; though he’ll never be a true home run threat, he drives the gaps with authority and has the bat speed to run into homers from time to time as well.”

        Alec Bohm … “it was Bohm that took the league by storm with his lethal righthanded bat and extremely functional hit tool. The physically imposing 6-foot-5, 225 righty slugger hit .358/.399/.513 on the summer for Falmouth, mashing five home runs along the way. Perhaps his most impressive statistic, however, was his 12.7% strikeout rate. For a hitter of his size, length, and power that’s an incredibly strong stat. And, given that it’s consistent with what he’s done at school, it’s a stat that will allow him to play into early first round conversations.
        With his extra-long frame, Bohm is bound to have some length to his swing. So how is he able to maintain such a contact heavy approach without sacrificing his plus power? Take his showdown with Logan Gilbert in mid-July as an example of how he does it. After losing his first battle with the Stetson righthander, going down on a good sequence of curveballs and a high fastball, Bohm fought off some tough pitches and got himself into a 3-2 count where he knew he’d see a fastball in his second at-bat. Gilbert left a fastball slightly elevated over the outside part of the plate and Bohm muscled one to the opposite field gap off the top of the right-center-field fence. Bohm was vulnerable to Gilbert’s elite velocity on the inner third,but his approach is so sound that he was able to keep battling until he had a pitch he could extend on and drive. It’s the approach, the calmness, and the ability to recognize pitches out of a pitcher’s hand that separates Bohm as a hitter. No hitter looked more relaxed in the box on the Cape. He almost never chased a pitch out of the zone, and he knew just when to take a strike he couldn’t handle and wait for a pitch to drive. There may not be a power hitter in the 2018 draft class with a more advanced approach.
        While the length to Bohm’s swing will always be there, he has above-average bat speed and high level barrel control we don’t normally see from a hitter of his size and power. He can mishit a ball and drive it out to center and right-center, and he looks in that direction unless a pitcher makes a mistake inside. When that happens, he’s capable of hitting monster home runs to left field. This is a hitter who doesn’t need to over-swing to generate plus power. He’s a below average runner, and while he’s shown improvement at third base, looks more likely to be destined to end up at first. But, even so his potent bat and advanced approach could carry him to a first round draft choice.”

  10. 3 shaky first round picks in the last 3 years, all left hand hitting OF’ers and JA has been the scouting director for 3 years. You figure it out where are the front line starting pitchers or some shortstops. Lets go !

  11. The Phils should just buy the bats (i.e. Harper and/or Machado and Trout in 2020) to reinforce Hoskins and Kingery and round up the group with players that are fundamentally sound defensively.

    Grown the arms. If Mize is not available, draft Rolison underslot. Rolison is a Nola-safe type of a player who can join the rotation in 2 years.

    After this season, it’s time for the Phils to start contending. They need to focus now on players who can help them make the push in 2 years time when the higher end prospects like Sixto, Medina, JoJo and Haseley are ready to contribute.

    My preference for 1.3 will be:

    1) Mize – overslot as suggested by Hinkie
    2) Rolison – underslot. not a sexy name, but he can be the LH Nola
    3) Kowar
    4) Madrigal, de Sedas or Turang

    Bohm will eventually move to 1B and Hoskins (and possibly Jhailyn) are locked to be there.

    1. KuKo … I really like Ryan Rolison. He’d probably be #4 on my list (behind Mize, Madrigal, and Bohm), but he is not going to sign under slot. He is only a sophomore and can return to school for two more seasons. That gives him all the leverage.

  12. Romus … a few weeks ago, we were speculating on who Johnny Almaraz may have been scouting when Eric Longenhagen revealed to me in a chat that he saw Almaraz at an Arizona State-UNLV game. I mentioned ASU CF Gage Canning might not be available by the time the Phillies drafted again in the fourth round. You threw out Runnin’ Rebel OF’er Kyle Isbel as a possibility. D1 Baseball.com has released their midseason top 150 college players for the draft. They have Isbel at #65 and a fourth round selection. They list Canning at #114 and a sixth round pick. Both of these guys are having tremendous seasons, and would make a lot of sense on day two.

  13. I understand the philosophy of drafting a player that you can sign for under slot, and spread the rest of the money around to sign talented players later. But it would be nice if the guy you draft with your first pick can progress at a reasonable pace and not trend towards a potential bust label. A look back at the last 10 top picks of the Phillies shows that only JP Crawford and Aaron Nola have graduated to the majors, a success rate of 20%. Drafts are basically crapshoots, but with Moniak, he was heavily scouted by the Phillies brass, from Klentak, to multiple visits by Pat Gillick, Charlie Manuel, and Johnny Almaraz. And it was a draft in which the Phillies controlled, due to having the first pick in each round. They need to get this right.

    1. That strategy is great when all the pieces fall into place:
      * 2012 Astros draft Carlos Correa at 1-1 and sign him under slot. They draft and over-sign Lance McCullers in the second round, Rio Ruiz in the fourth round, and Brett Phillips in the sixth round.
      * 2014 Cubs draft and sign Kyle Schwarber to a below slot deal at 1-4. They use the savings to pick HS arms in rounds 4, 5, and 6. That sixth round pick was Dylan Cease.
      The new slotting system has made this strategy more difficult.

  15. While it is a bit baffling why JA’s 1st round hitters are not progressing at the moment like we had hoped. There is this guy named Kingery who seems to be progressing nicely as a “bat”. By almost every pundit, out pharm system has the most players who will wear a major league uniform. They major league roster is load3d with young players who are literally are competing on a daily basis for at bats making our first year managers job all the more challenging as he tries to figure out who will emerge as the alpha dogs with this group.

    As I have learned from this site over the past few years, JA and MK don’t need to hit .300 with regard to draft prospects. Seems like if we get 2-3 Major League Baseball players in each draft, we are doing quite well. Looks like our guys are on track to do just that and more.

    Finally, being a native philly/burbs boy, it is so enjoyable to watch Nova, then the eagles, then nova again, and the 76ers, and the Flyers, and our phightins build programs the right way. Create winning culture with staying power based on significant investment on identifying young players, who are good plYers and good people that our city can be proud to call our own.

    The Phillies are closer than we may want to admit. All they have to do is stay the well built course. So be cognizant of the trees but don’t let it enjoy the quality and quantity of the powder on the slope

  16. This year’s draft is even more exciting for me since a hot prospect pitches at the school where I teach. He has 20+ scouts attending all his outings and is hitting 96 on the gun. He’s also a VERY young HS senior. Name is Lenny Torres, Beacon HS in NY. Would love to see him as a Phuture Phil, but he will probably be gone by the time we pick in the 4th round.

    1. Hinkie posted that link with their top draft guys…

      55 Lenny Torres Jr. RHP Beacon (Beacon, N.Y.) HS 17.07 VIDEO Torres generates plus velocity and spin out of an easy quick arm, reaching as high as 96 mph with his fastball and flashing plus with a low-to-mid 90s slider.

      Your boy certainly isn’t making it to the Phillies in the 4th! That’s cool that you’re seeing a kid like this first hand!

  17. I want a college player drafted. Now obviously I’m not going to reach on a college player but if a college player is close enough to the higher ranked HSer, I’d probably go for the college guy.

    Someone mentioned it before but the MM draft there wasn’t a clear cut option, so why not take Senzel who was ranked as a top end guy to take?

    This is a team that could be special, get a college guy (thinking pitcher) that can be up in the bigs by 2020.

    1. There was a lot of hype around Moniak at the time. I remember stories about Charlie Manuel scouting him and loving his bat as an amature and that was enough for me, at the time, to think he was a good pick.

      The Phillies are a good case study of why tanking in baseball isn’t a guarantee. If they’re ever in this position again I really hope they take the Dodgers’ approach.

  18. The old adage is true: You can’t judge a draft for at least four years.
    That said, I’m going to make this comment on the (less than 2 YO) 2016 draft. It may not end up being the disaster some have labeled it.
    * 1st rounder Mickey Moniak’s start to his career has definitely been underwhelming, but he is one of the youngest players in the FSL. Even if he never pans out (and that would hurt), the way below slot deal he signed saved the Phillies almost 3 million dollars. With that money, Johnny Almaraz drafted and over-signed:
    * 2nd rounder Kevin Gowdy … He’s been mostly unavailable (just 9 IP & now recovering from TJ), but there’s no reason to believe he can’t follow the same path as Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo was ranked right along side of Gowdy for the 2016 draft, but fell to the third round after TJ surgery in his HS senior season. Luzardo is back healthy and thriving as a top 100 prospect.
    * 3rd rounder Cole Stobbe … had a promising rookie season in the GCL. Followed that with a dismal second campaign in the NYPL. Let’s see if he’s able to rebound at Lakewood this summer. He’s got the pedigree. He was a top HS bat and a member of Team USA in 2016.
    * 4th rounder JoJo Romero … So far, so good. The little lefty is already in AA, possesses multiple pitches, and is on some top 100 prospect lists.
    * 5th rounder Cole Irvin … was also an overpay (even as a college arm). Irvin may only profile as another back end starter, but he could become the first LH pitcher to start a game for the Phillies in over a year (it’s actually been 181 games … and counting). Where he goes from there, remains to be seen.
    * 11th rounder Josh Stephen … didn’t wow anybody with results from his first two seasons, but as rocco has been telling us, “Stephen has the sweetest swing in the organization”. So far this year in Lakewood (I know it’s a very SSS) his results have matched his sweet swing (.333/.429/.667, 2 HR).
    * 22nd rounder Kyle Young … has surprised everybody. He could become the first 7 foot pitcher to ever throw in MLB. Not saying he’s a slam dunk to get there, but (again) so far, so good.
    * In addition, while many teams draft (and save money by underpaying) senior signs in rounds eight through ten, Almaraz drafted (at full slot) juniors Grant Dyer in the 8th round, and Blake Quinn in the ninth round. Both were phenomenal out of the bullpen their first year in the organization. Quinn has been steady in Clearwater since. Dyer should be back from TJ, and hopefully throwing as hard (upper 90’s) soon.

    Again, we need to wait four years to give an honest assessment. None of these picks may ever amount to anything … or … maybe a few do. Just making the point that while it would really sting to come up empty with the top overall pick, the fact that MM agreed to a big discount means the team didn’t place all their eggs in the Moniak basket.

    1. Hinkie….you bring up Jesus Luzardo.
      His TJ was in his senior year of HS so his development was not delayed as much as Gowdy’s will be in their respective professional careers…
      Gowdy, IMO, was shut down and then there was the extended wait, due to possible therapy efforts in the spring of 2017, before the actual TJ in August 2017.
      That delay may have cost him a season of pitching. He will start his first season ball at 21-years old in A ball.

      BTW….Luzardo’s HS…..Stoneman -Douglas of Parkland, Florida.
      He may be joining Anthony Rizzo in the majors , along with Flyers Shane Gostibehere as SD HS alums.

    2. Nicely put. I’m encouraged by some positivity, while everyone’s opinion is just that and I welcome it. Listening to a positive spin every now and again is refreshing and stands out to me. I believe the phils have done a decent job drafting domestically, along with those names mentioned in 2015 also was Darrick hall and Trevor bettancourt.

      1. Thanks, Oly Oly. BTW … using the “wait four years” rule, we can now fairly judge the 2013 and 2014 (7 weeks shy of four years) drafts.

        2013 … netted one potential core player, one bench player, and a bullpen piece to the current young (hopefully next great) team. JP Crawford was drafted in the first round. Andrew Knapp was acquired in the second round. Mark Leiter was selected in the 23rd round.

        2014 … brought two of this club’s core players (and probable future multi all-star participants) in Aaron Nola (1st round) and Rhys Hoskins (5th round). In addition (and not to be overlooked), Chris Oliver (4th round) was part of the package sent to Arizona in 2015 to bring back a big chunk of J2 dollars. That international money was used to sign Jhailyn Ortiz.

        For me, that makes the 2013 draft very good, and the 2014 draft excellent !

        2. Also to add for the 2014 draft —- Austin Davis, a lefty who can throw mid-90s. If 100% healthy, we might see Davis with the Phils at some point this year. Leibrandt may not be part of the future Phillies, but he can play the LH version of Leiter with another MLB team.

          I agree that the 2014 is an excellent draft – a departure from toolsy leaning approach of the previous regime.

          1. KuKo…..2014 draft also saw Phillies taking NJ Eastern HS star Tom Flacco…..younger brother of Raven’s QB John Flacco. Naturally he decided on football and QBing, now in the Big Ten at Rutgers.
            And do not forget Reading’s Damek T. was in that 2014 draft also.

  19. Regarding Moniak almost never striking out in high school, it’s not true: he struck out in 6.5% of his PAs during his junior and senior years of high school. That’s good, but it doesn’t scream “70 hit tool”

    See http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/mickey-moniak/3IObdcgKEeS-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

    For comparison, Nick Madrigal struck out in 2.0% of his PAs junior and senior year of high school.

    http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/nick-madrigal/VJahhfTlEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

  20. Ok a starting rotation in 3 yrs
    Nola, Sixto, Ranger, Jojo Remero, Elseman whos saying no to that.

    1. This should be in the open discussion thread, Tim. I’ll post my response there now….

  21. D1 Baseball.com has posted their Top 150 College Players For The Draft: https://d1baseball.com/prospects/2018-midseason-college-top-150/

    1 Casey Mize RHP Auburn
    2 Brady Singer RHP Florida
    3 Nick Madrigal 2B Oregon State
    4 Shane McClanahan* LHP South Florida
    5 Ryan Rolison* LHP Mississippi
    6 Jonathan India 3B Florida
    7 Travis Swaggerty OF South Alabama
    8 Alec Bohm 3B Wichita State
    9 Sean Hjelle RHP Kentucky
    10 Jeremy Eierman SS Missouri State

    Logan Gilbert checked in at #18. Seth Beer was #27 and projected to be a 2nd round pick.

  22. If I was handicapping the 1-3 pick tonight, I’d say …

    Madrigal 35% chance to be the pick
    Bohm 35% chance to be the pick
    Mize 15% chance to be the pick
    The field at 15%

      1. Jim … is McClanahan a personal favorite, or have you heard something from people around the team ? I know Eric Longenhagen also likes McClanahan (after Mize).
        For me, Rolison, Gilbert, and Singer would rank in front of McClanahan because of McClanahan’s control issues and I just see him as (another) arm injury waiting to happen.

        1. I can’t say that I’ve heard anything. So, if I answer “yes” and repeat my statement from above “I can’t offer anything to the conversation that you can’t discuss better.”, is that too vague of a reply? Email me at prospectpoll@yahoo.com if you need/want a more direct answer.

    2. I’ll take the field too – with Rolison, McClanahan, de Sedas and even Singer as possible 1,3 picks.

    1. Thanks for posting Hinkie. A few thoughts from this list, largely based on where I live (the Atlanta area)

      1) shocked to see Hankins at 31. He pitched against my local high-school team last week. I was not at the game, but did see tweets that said he was 92-95 in the first inning. The million dollar question on him is what is the status of his shoulder? Was the ‘velo dip into the mid-80s just weeks ago’ just a result of him being basically in spring training form, or a bigger sign of trouble?

      2) 3 catchers are on the list, all of which are from the Atlanta area (1 college, 2 high-schoolers)

      3) “Rocker is built like J.R. Richard and his stuff is almost as good” – think about that comment for a second

      4) Seth Beer is no longer listed on the top 55. Following his junior year in high-school, he looked like a potential very early pick. If I recall, he ‘struggled’ during his subsequent travel season, and from a stats perspective, has not lit the world on fire this year. Also, seems to be limited defensively.

      Random thought: I wonder at what point a player is drafted, and a team goes “who is that?” I would have to think there is someone taken in the first 10 rounds where a scouting director will think “who did the Pirates take? Never heard of him”.. now, they probably would not admit to this, but…

  24. For the last 3 drafts, I’ve been leaning towards high risk, high upside prospects like Allard, Whitley, Groome, Pint, Baz, etc as the Rd 1 pick for the Phils. Obviously, none of my wish list fell to Johnny A.s ears. Due to the absence of Rd 2 and Rd 3 picks and a timeline closer to contention, I’n heavily leaning towards a college prospect at 1.3 — a prospect that is almost a guarantee to help in 2 years time.

    My preference is Mize, Rolison, McClanahan and Kowar since I can see the Phils buying the bats they need. However, I’m starting to be warm to the idea of college bats like Madrigal and Bohm or even Swaggerty or Jenista.

    I agree that Madrigal and Bohm are the 2 best college bats and eventhough both have “positional concerns” [Bohm move to 1B (Hoskins), Madrigal as 2B (Kingery)] — this should not stop Johnny A. from drafting them.

    My very concern up to now is Johnny A. will continue to be stubborn and go for the player he likes rather than the best player available. It is imperative that the 2018 1.3 pick is a hit for Johnny A.

    1. Taking Madrigal would be the equivalent of taking a left handed hitting centerfielder. I’d rather opt for the power/hit tool guy like Bohm. Even if he doesn’t stick at 3b, interchangeable positions like 1b and LF are reasonable options down the road.

      1. 8mark…agree with you on picking Bohm vs Madrigal.
        And I do think Bohm can stay at third for a few years.
        Now hopefully he is not the next Bobby Dalbec but more in the mold of Kris Bryant.
        Or somewhere close to Bryant.

  25. A few draft notes from Kiley McDaniel’s chat today:

    * There appears to be a top 4-6, depending on who you ask and those will probably be the top 4-6 picks in some order. After that (specifically SD at 7 and ATL at 8, and so on) the questions are many and there isn’t much clarity. Most prospects haven’t even had signability meetings with their advisors yet, so teams obviously don’t know what prices are and the top tier scouts are still getting second looks at the top targets
    Now we know tendencies, we’ve been to lots of top games and take notes on who is watching whom at each game, other teams will tell us who is where, etc. and we have a pretty good feel for industry consensus evaluations of the top of the draft…but multiple GMs have told us they don’t expect things to get narrowed down to a small group to choose from until much closer to draft time and maybe until they get in the room (2-3 weeks before the draft) and this is from teams in the top 10.

    Greg: Can Madrigal play 3rd on a regular basis? Particularly for a club like Phillies ?
    Kiley McDaniel: I bet he could catch, might even throw a knuckleball do not tell this kid he can’t do something; he’s plus at 2B with an average arm and 70 speed he can play anywhere. He may be my new Albies how dare you question either of my tiny adult sons abilities.

    Matt: You said a while back that Bohm wasn’t as far from a Bryant-level prospect as one might think. Do the Bryant comps mostly come from his frame or could he really get to that level? Seems like if he was that close he’d be the sure 1-1 right?
    Kiley McDaniel: Frame, profile, raw power. The swing isn’t the same and Bohm’s needs some adjustments. I think the athleticism/twitch is a little less than Bryant. He isn’t that level of prospect but the fact that he COULD be that sort of player is exciting.

  27. Big day on the internet for draft followers. Keith Law has already released his updated Top 50 Draft Prospects for Insiders http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=8276. Later on today, the team of Longenhagen and McDaniel are putting up their mock draft on Fangraphs.
    For all who aren’t Insiders, this is Law’s list:
    1. Casey Mize
    2. Carter Stewart
    3. Matthew Liberatore
    4. Travis Swaggerty
    5. Alec Bohm
    6. Nick Madrigal
    7. Jarred Kelenic
    8. Mike Vasil
    9. Shane McClanahan
    10. Jonathan India
    11. Cole Winn
    12. Kumar Rocker
    13. Cole Wilcox
    14. Joey Bart
    15. Nolan Gorman
    16. Ryan Weathers
    17. Jackson Kowar
    18. Grayson Rodriguez
    19. Ryan Rolison
    20. Brady Singer
    21. Noah Naylor
    22. Alek Thomas
    23. Mike Sian
    24. Sean Hjelle
    25. Jake McCarthy
    26. Seth Beer
    27. Brice Turang
    28. Logan Gilbert
    29. Triston Casas
    30. Kris Bubic
    31. Kris Pilkington
    32. Connor Scott
    33. Ethan Hankins
    34. Tristan Pompey
    35. Nico Hoerner
    36. Kyler Murray
    37. Lenny Torres
    38. J.T. Ginn
    39. Jeremiah Jackson
    40. Will Banfield
    41. Blaine Knigh
    42. Garrett Wade
    43. Anthony Seigler
    44. Owen White
    45. Jordan Groshans
    46. Joe Gray
    47. Trevor Larnach
    48. Jeremy Eierman
    49. Matt McLain
    50. Jordyn Adams

    Honorable mentions: Parker Meadows, OF, Grayson (Georgia) HS; Xavier Edwards, SS, North Broward Prep, Wellington, Florida; Osiris Johnson, SS/OF, Encinal HS, Alameda, California; Griffin Conine, OF, Duke; Carson Sands, RHP, Florida State; Austin Becker, RHP, Big Walnut HS, Sunbury, Ohio; Nick Decker, OF, Seneca HS, Southampton, New Jersey; Sean Guilbe, SS, Berks Catholic HS, Reading, Pennsylvania; Alex McKenna, OF, Cal Poly.

    Two more players who would have been in the top 50 if not for injuries: RHP Mason Denaburg of Merritt Island High School, Florida; and LHP Tim Cate of UConn. Denaburg was a likely top-20 pick, Cate somewhere near the end of the first round or in the comp picks.

    1. Law also says … “In talking to execs and scouts, the only consensus seems to be that there’s no consensus: We all agree who the top talent is in the class, but beyond that, no one has any confidence in how the rest of the draft might fall.
      2018 MLB Draft
      One national guy suggested to me a scenario where the top of the draft is all college guys, even with this college class being down this year — Casey Mize, Shane McClanahan, Nick Madrigal, Travis Swaggerty, Brady Singer and Alec Bohm could all conceivably go one through six, in that order — but that’s entirely speculative, with the Giants (picking second) also linked to prep right-hander Carter Stewart.”

    2. Totally disagree with Law on taking Liberatore at 1.3, no more prep kids that high. Thanks for this post, Hinkie. You’re in your glory, aren’t you, brother!

      1. 8mark … this isn’t Law’s mock draft. This is just his ranking of the prospects. In other words, he’s not not predicting the Phillies will draft Liberatore. However, he does mention he has heard the first six picks could all be college players. In that scenario, he hears the Phillies would take Madrigal.

      2. I saw video of this kid Liberatore. really looks good. but scary to take a Hs arm. But lets take a college right hander who throws 90 we need more of those in this system

      1. I’ve followed this kid for a couple of years. He’s been on the summer all-star circuit for that amount of time, and my daughter lives across the street from Penn Charter. Every time I go over to see her I tell her there’s a future MLB first round draft pick over there. I’ve never heard he had any relationship to the former Raider and Villanova football star, but you never know. It seems reasonable to think he may be related.

        1. I would assume if he is related….he would be his grandson, since Mike Siani, the former football player, is now in his late 60s…then again could be a late arrival or a second marriage.

  28. Interesting the fangraphs article puts the Phillies on 3 hitters.SF has no real ties to Bohm only logical choice. They do have Belt and Longoria on the corners.
    Bohm at the head of the list for the Phillies . Here’ s the thing it looks like Mize is heads and tails above the college pitchers . Hitters are the next group. Do the Phillies kind of reach for a Rolison or go for a college bat ?

    1. After reading Law, Longenhagen, and McDaniel this morning, it sounds like the Phillies will pick Madrigal if SF takes Bohm. If SF drafts someone else (Joey Bart, Travis Swaggerty, Shane McClanahan, or Carter Stewart), then the Phillies will select Bohm. Of course, there are still six weeks to go, and things can change.

  29. From Keith Law’s chat today:

    Dante
    1:25
    I’ve heard Nick Madrigal is being considered by the Phillies. Does he remind you at all of Scott Kingery based on his tools? Any word on his makeup?
    Keith Law
    1:26
    Madrigal is in the mix for a bunch of teams up top – I don’t think he’d get past the A’s – and the Phillies are sort of on everyone except Swaggerty (can’t do yet another CF, right?). Kingery is substantially stronger than Madrigal.

    1. So right now the pecking order is Mize (who likely won’t be there at 1.3), Bohm (who could be especially if SF goes prep), and Madrigal (who we would take at 1.3 but hope he’s not)? Is that a sensible breakdown, Hinkie?

  30. We’re kilome , Medina, Effin, De los Santos, Sixto are all rhp hard throwers.Anderson is injuried ,Tirado, Morales,Spencer Howard.

  31. Good outing for Brady Singer last night.

    1. He is starting to warm up.
      He carries games like that thru the SEC playoffs, and the CWS, and he could move up the board. Would be nice if the Tigers or Giants would take a chance on him.

    1. If Madrigal is our pick, I can see more and more the possibility of having Kingery at 3b and Madrigal at 2b when he arrives in the Show.

      1. In drafting Madrigal…..I am not confident in Matt Klentak in sortie out the proper athletes at their proper positions.
        In other words…….trading the right guys to make room for who he feels will be the best choices at the appropriate positions

        And to ask Gabe Kapler try to juggle 10/11 position players for eight positions on the field and in the lineup, to stay current, is not an optimum formula for success.
        Well, have not seen it work for any World Series winners lately…and the only one coming anywhere near that cacophony that Gabe is employing now, was Cubs’ manager,Joe Maddon , and he played musical chairs with basically two guys, Zobrist and Schwarber.

        1. Well if they do draft Madrigal I would think that the positional player log-jam will have already sorted itself out by the time he’s ready to play at the ML level. Cesar and Franco will both have been FA’s by that time and Kingery/Crawford will have shown themselves…

        2. I think he’s done fine. The players that need playing time are getting it:

          Hoskins
          Hernandez
          Herrera
          Crawford
          Santana
          Kingery

          Really the only ones with gripes in my mind are Franco, Williams, and Altherr. Knapp and Alfaro are pretty evenly split. But you can argue that the front office decided those arent long term pieces.

          If they view Madrigal as a 2B and a long term piece he could slide in right at the end of Hernandez’s team control.

  34. I watched some of the Auburn game last night. Casey Mize was doing his usual thing (dominate the opposing batters) until the third inning. That’s when he took a line drive off his right wrist/hand (throwing hand). He immediately dropped his glove and began shaking his hand. I thought to myself, “Hinkie … this could be the break (no pun intended) the Phillies need to land Mize (the #1 draft prospect) at 1-3 !!!” Fortunately for Mize (and unfortunately for the Phils), Mize was able to continue. Although, he looked more human after the incident (before getting hit by the line drive: 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB … after getting drilled: 3 R, 4 H, 2 BB). For the night, Mize was 5 IP (85 P), 3 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K.

    Also … Nick Madrigal has returned to the Oregon State lineup after losing about six weeks with a wrist/hand injury on a play at the plate. Madrigal hasn’t missed a beat. In two games since his reappearance, he is 3 for 7 (including a triple) with a BB and no K’s. For the season, the little 2Bman is slashing .531/.571/.844 !

    The other option for the Phillies at 1-3 is reportedly Alec Bohm. Bohm went 1 for 3 with a BB last night at Houston. Bohm is now .335/.464/.596, 9 doubles, 8 HR’s, 29 BB’s, only 16 K’s for the season.

    Bottom line … the Phillies are going to be getting a very good prospect in June.

    Watch Nick Madrigal attack pitches in Thursday night’s game. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twST8TO39UE

    1. Hinkie…caught the Florida (Kowar) and Kentucky (Hjelle) game.
      They are both first round picks but mid-to-late it would appear.
      Both pitched well vs good hitting opponents.
      Hjelle—-88-91 and Kowar 89-92……that was their velo both after 90 to 100 pitch range. Breaking stuff was not as sharp but was competent enough vs the SEC batters.
      Neither figures to be the Phillies choice.

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