2018 Draft Discussion: April 9th

The Phillies have the third overall selection in the first round.  They forfeited their second and third round picks when they signed free agents Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta.

Their total bonus pool is only $8,858, 500.  Their total was reduced by over $2.25M of slot money with the two picks they lost.

Their complete slot breakdown is as follows (round, pick, $) –

  •   1st:       3  – $6,947,500
  •   4th:   107 –    $522,900
  •   5th:   137 –    $390,600
  •   6th:   167 –    $292,700
  •   7th:   197 –    $228,000
  •   8th:   227 –    $180,600
  •   9th:   257 –    $153,600
  • 10th:   287 –    $142,600

The pre-season top 10 for prospects was –

  1. Brady Singer, RHP
  2. Ethan Hankins, RHP
  3. Matthew Liberatore, LHP
  4. Nolan Gorman, 3B
  5. Shane McClanahan, LHP
  6. Nander De Sedas, SS
  7. Brice Turang, SS
  8. Casey Mize, RHP
  9. Ryan Rolison, LHP
  10. Jackson Kowar, RHP

I’m not going to pretend that I know as much as you guys when it comes to these prospects.  For example, my response on Winkelman’s expert poll on the question, “Who will the Phillies draft” was “how the phck should I know”, or words to that effect.

I have noticed how unwieldy the comments section has become in the weekly open discussion with Phillies and draft/prospect talk contending for the thread..  So here is a discussion thread for draft talk only.

93 thoughts on “2018 Draft Discussion: April 9th

  1. Phillies should get someone good here! Hopefully it is a polished, college player. We had to live with raw, high school picks for quite a long time. I want guys that are more of a sure thing.

    1. Agree…..Nola is a good example of a college guy who progressed faster than the normal HSer thru the system.
      Now I prefer a pitcher and there are some who have the potential to be mid-to-top rotation arms.
      And I do think Johnny A. needs to get this one right, and a college guy is probably the safest way of guaranteeing that..

    1. Aaron Nola stats at LSU: 331.1 IP, 240 H, 52 BB, 345 K, 0.88 WHIP, 6.63 K/BB%
      Casey Mize stats at Auburn: 206.2 IP, 167 H, 31 BB, 245 K, 0.96 WHIP, 7.90 K/BB%

      Mize probably isn’t going to make it to the Phillies at 1-3. I posted last week, if I were Klentak and Almaraz (aka Klamaraz), I would go all in on Mize. If anyone missed it, and wants me to post again how I would put together an offer to beat the 1-1 slot, just ask and I’ll copy and paste what I posted in last week’s open discussion. For me, if the Phils got Casey Mize (IMO, a likely “ace”) and 37 (they lose two picks because of FA signings) other guys who will never amount to anything, they’ve had a very successful draft.

      1. I’ve read in a couple of places, the Tigers would like to do what most/all teams with the 1-1 pick do … save some money with their initial pick to be able to draft/over-sign other high end prospect(s). Kiley McDaniel tweeted more evidence of this today.

        Klemaraz will never know if an above 1-1 slot offer to Casy Mize would work unless they make the Auburn superstar the offer. Can’t hurt to try.

        1. This is a very interesting development, Hinkie. And if there’s anything to it, it actually adds to the pressure on Klentak and Almaraz to get 1-3 right. I lean toward a 3b (Bohm or Gorman) or a college arm who projects to be up sometime in 2019. Exciting!

  2. Baseball America posted a mock draft last week. They had Mize at number 1, followed by Liberatore at 2, and the Phillies taking Oregon St. middle infielder Nick Madrigal. He has 2 things going against him – he has been injured this spring, and he is all of 5 foot 7. That said, they say he has the best college bat out there.

    Ethan Hankins intrigues me here.

    1. Nick Madrigal (IMO) is the second best player in the draft. Here is his career slash line at Oregon State: .370/.428/.519 He’ll be playing in MLB sometime in 2019. He injured his wrist on a play at the plate. He should be back any day now.

      1. I really don’t know much about the draft class, but if he ends up a Phillie, I’ll feel pretty good about it.

        1. As safe a pick as he is, I think I’d pass on Madrigal. Here’s a scouting report on him:

          Smaller in stature, needs some additional strength; good baseball player with good instincts for the game; played both second base and shortstop in viewings; arm is playable at short but fits better at second base; pesky, aggressive hitter who makes good contact and sprays the ball around to all fields; good bat control, barrels up balls; singles/doubles hitter with projection to average hit tool (50); limited pull power which will play below-average at maturity; 80-grade runner clocking home-to-first times in the 3.94-to-4.10 second range; good instincts on the bases with ability to be a quality base stealer; average quickness in hands with average fielding actions; average range at second base; defensive tools likely too limited to overexpose at shortstop

          1. Not sure where you got that scouting report, but an average (50) hit tool is pretty rough. The kid is a career .370/.428/.519 slasher at Oregon St. Compare Madrigal to Scott Kingery (at Arizona):
            Madrigal .370/.428/.519
            Kingery .351/.425/.484

          2. Yes, aside from the hit tool (which seems like a suspect grade), it sounds just like a report on Kingery. I’ll take another Kingery, thank you.

            1. That’s what the Astros thought when they were picking Mark Appel.

              If you take a pitcher, you better be right. The risk is extremely high.

            2. Replying to Catchman re: Mark Appel; college pitchers vs. hitters.

              C’mon now, we can find examples of busts on either side. And I’m not against getting a college hitter. As I said below, I’d be happy with Bohm, who has hit tool and power, but is similar to Madrigal in that he’s limited defensively.

  3. One of the guys Klemaraz is reportedly considering at 1-3 is Wichita State 3Bman Alec Bohm. Bohm hit his 8th homer of the season yesterday. For the year, Bohm is .355/.474/.664. Kiley McDaniel had a pretty glowing scouting report on him last week https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/author/kiley-mcdaniel/
    He claims some scouts say Bohm reminds them of Kris Bryant. Personally, I think that’s a bit over the top, but what do I know ?

  4. Not sure if Johnny Almaraz was in the peach state tonight, but …

  5. looking at nola, Hoskins, kingery vs a moniak, etc, I’m definitely becoming more and more a fan of drafting heavily in early rounds from the college level. seems like the miss rate is much lower

    1. Yes, agreed. If a guy falls into your lap that you think is a generational talent or can become a generational, then, fine, take him. Otherwise, these HS bats disappoint year after year after year – either it’s a failed proposition to begin with or we can’t discern between the good players or the bad players – but, in either case, something has to give and we can’t keep making the same mistake over and over again for more than 30 years.

  6. If Ethan Hankins continues to pitch well, I don’t know how you don’t consider him at 1-3.

    That said, I’d still like Logan Gilbert (assuming Mize will be gone by then) or new kid on the block Alec Bohm.

      1. TBH … at this point, the only HS pitcher I would even consider at 1-3 is Kumar Rocker. Rocker gets overlooked (IMO) due to prospect fatigue. Rocker has been viewed as a top draft prospect since his freshman season. The longer scouts study a kid, the more they’ll find to nit-pick. Unlike all the other prep arms, you don’t need to project on Rocker. He’s already 6’5″, 250 lbs, throws 98 MPH, and has maybe the best slider in the draft class (HS or college). At the very least, he comes with an elite closer floor.
        Not saying I would draft Kumar Rocker at 1-3. Just saying I’d pick him before any of the other prep arms.

        1. I do think Rocker could go in the top half of the first round around the 14-18 area.
          But who knows what GMs think anymore…..especially when it comes to slot money maneuvering..

          1. I haven’t followed him as much lately, but last time I checked on him couple months ago, his status had dropped because he was getting hit too often for a high first round pick. The fact that he has little projection left, in this case, only adds to the concern.

    1. For me … I’d most like to see the Phillies draft Casey Mize. If Mize is gone, I’d pick Nick Madrigal. If both are off the board, I’d consider Shane McClanahan, Ryan Rolison, Logan Gilbert, Jeremy Eierman, Alec Bohm, Nolan Gorman, and Kumar Rocker. I know Rolison’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he may be the guy I would eventually draft from that group.
      Mize is easily the best selection for the Phillies. Hopefully, the Tigers (and Giants) try to get too smart and draft for the best discount.

  7. given our recent track record of success and what looks like busts, I’m hoping for a college arm or bat at 1-3

    1. “just” is not the adjective I’d use before 19 walks when we are talking about 40 2/3 innings. McClanahan’s control issues worry me at 1-3.

    2. I have said this before I love Liberatore. If I am looking fro a top of rotation arm he is my choice. Another Cole Hamels if he stays healthy. which is a big if with pitchers

    3. I wouldn’t write off Singer. Boehm looks good. Madrigal just seems too small and too much like what we’ve done recently. Another 2B into the mix? I guess if Kingery plays 3B going forward, that’s not an issue. Then, there’s the dream of Machado.

    1. Hard to believe they have Jarred Kelenic so high…right where the Phillies are drafting.
      Seems every mock expert has one or two players somewhere on their board that is a head scratcher of sorts.

      1. According to Kiley McDaniel (and I posted above), Detroit is considering Kelenic (at a discount) at 1-1.

        1. Wow..that would throw things in a real tizzy if the Tigers go that way.
          Phillies , I assume, would benefit and Mize may be there at three.
          Giants have had soem succes with HS arms … latest success with Bumgarner….maybe they would go with a Hankins or Liberatore.

        2. And I have said before…the Tigers and Avila with their top four prospects being potential TOR RHPs…may go bat.

    1. McDaniel also answered mucho draft questions in his chat this afternoon. I wanted to know what the Phillies may do at 1-3:

      Hinkie
      12:43
      Kiley … According to your draft notes column last week, it sounds like the Phillies are considering Alec Bohm with the 1-3 pick. Have you heard of any other prospects the Phillies are most seriously scouting/considering for that pick ?
      Kiley McDaniel
      12:43
      Hearing Madrigal as well, Logan Gilbert has come up but that seems too rich for 3

      1. Hinkie…..Madrigal would be a safe bat and pick.
        And of course, due to defensive limitations, ie arm strength, he naturally is a 2nd baseman only, maybe LFer.
        And if he takes the normal time frame to the majors as a top college hitter….ETA would be the latest at 2020 sometime.

        1. Yeah. I think Madrigal could be playing in MLB by the end of 2019. He’s such a good hitter and has crazy OBP skills.

  8. More draft Q & A’s from Kiley McDaniel chat:

    Who’s the top 3 draft prospects right now?
    Kiley McDaniel
    Mize, Bohm, Madrigal for me but you could argue Swaggerty or McClanahan or Stewart could be in there.

    I know Brady Singer’s stuff has reportedly been down this year, but how low could he realistically fall because of it?
    Kiley McDaniel
    He’s a tough one, he’s somewhere in the middle of the first round right now. His arm is late to catch up to his body timing wise in his delivery, he failed a physical (but wasn’t hurt) due to arm stuff in HS and his velo was 90-92 early in the spring, but is more 92-94 now. Nothing is plus, but he performs. One scout told me last night that he feels like the guy that slides due to all these worries then he doesn’t get hurt for the next 5-6 years and we’re all like oh duh he should’ve gone top 10. I’m still conflicted but will see him again in the coming weeks, probably when he matches up with Casey Mize in Gainesville.

    Bohm seems like a perfect fit for Atlanta. Any chance?
    Kiley McDaniel
    Don’t think he gets there. Believe in Austin Riley!

    Even though you said Mize is still the favorite, what would you put the odds at for Kelenic at 1-1?
    Kiley McDaniel
    Told a friend in the industry last night I’m guessing 75% Mize 1-1 right now–DET’s top two tendencies are SEC performers and power arms–then I’d guess it goes Bohm and McClanahan or Kelenic third. If Mize’s medical comes back fishy, which some are worried it might, then it could get interesting. That said, Mize still goes top 10 even if that happens.

    Talk to me about Bohm’s defensive ceiling. Will he be average at best? Will his bat make it a moot point anyways?
    Kiley McDaniel
    Might be a little above but he’s also 6’4, so I’d take a 50 glove with 60 arm.

    Kiley, who do you think has the better chance to stay at 3B, Bohm is Gorman?
    Kiley McDaniel
    Bohm projects for solid average, Gorman below average right now, so it isn’t that close

    You reported the Tigers/Kelenic stuff last week. Do you think they would need to see something they don’t like about Mize in terms of injury to go another direction? Or do you think there’s a good chance they pass on a healthy Mize to take Kelenic or someone else?
    Kiley McDaniel
    Don’t see them passing on healthy/passes physical Mize

    Kiley, do you have any concerns are pitch counts and over-use with Logan Gilbert this season?
    Kiley McDaniel
    I guess some? I try not to get too overheated about that unless its 140+ pitches, but if I’m a team I’m paying attention to it.

    Would you be shocked if the White Sox took Bohm with the 4th pick even though they drafted Burger last year?
    Kiley McDaniel
    Nope because that would be smart and not taking Bohm for that reason would be stupid

    Ethan Hankin’s has fallen down the draft board a bit but is there any chance he still goes in the top 2 to either the tigers or the giants?
    Kiley McDaniel
    He’s gonna have to go insane to go top 5, still a chance to sneak in the top 10.

    You’re high on Alec Bohm, will he go high because of the hit/power combo during an era where teams feel they can fix launch angle, or will he slide due to athleticism and defensive concerns?
    Kiley McDaniel
    There aren’t athleticism/defensive concerns so no

    What happened to the top two prep righties coming into the season, Ethan Hankins and Kumar Rocker. Rocker looks so good on video, i don’t understand why he’s not top 10…?
    Kiley McDaniel
    He might be, he’s close to that and he’s been shoving all year

    1. Hinkie…so he has the Giants going with Bohm now if the draft were today.
      And what scares me about LHP McClalnahan is the control…..he could be a Tanner Scott/Reymin Guduan player…bringing it at 99 but walking ever third batter….remember Mitch Williams….or maybe he ends up closer to an early Kershaw or Bumgarner type pitcher.

      1. McDaniel hasn’t connected anyone to the Giants, as far as I know. He does list Mize, Madrigal, and Bohm as his top tier/three prospects for the draft. The Phillies (with the third pick) would land one of them.

  9. a little off topic, but I noticed that Simon Muzziotti replaced Alfaro on the Phillies prospect list. Next off the list is Crawford in a couple of weeks. Best guess as to who is the next to join the list.

      1. Guzman is a good one…I can also see Seabold garnering some votes also or even middle infielder Brayan Gonzalez.

  10. I understand BPA, but if they draft Madrigal, where does he play? He is limited to 2B, I don’t see him as a LF. We already have the Cesar problem of when does Kingery become the everyday 2B, Madrigal can’t play all over like Kingery can. Do you draft him 1.3 and plan to trade him? Is that ever a draft plan?

    1. It’s probably a relevant consideration. I am usually all in favor of the BPA, but I suppose if you have a player that’s indistinguishable from another on your board in terms of quality, then you can look to need, but you’ve got to be really careful that you’re not rationalizing.

      1. Just draft BPA. Figure it out later. Better to have multiple very good prospects at the same position than to add a guy at a position of need who is just ok (or worse than ok).

        1. Hinkie….so who is the BPA of the top of Madrigal, Mize, Bohm, McClanahan, Gilbert, Liberatore, Hankins, or even De Sedas?

          1. IMO Mize is the clear top draft prospect. I would rank Madrigal #2. After that, it gets a little murky. I like Jeremy Eierman, Ryan Rolison, Logan Gilbert, even Kumar Rocker. With reports that Nolan Gorman can’t stay at 3B, I would have to drop him. Sounds like Bohm is gaining a lot of momentum. As I’ve mentioned numerous times, I would make Mize a better than 1-1 offer and hope Detroit and SF would rather spread their money around in a very deep draft. If Mize and Madrigal go 1 – 2, I’d probably draft Rolison right now.

            1. Yes I would have Mize at the top.
              But Madrigal I would have around 4 or 5.
              And have Bohm above him based on his athleticism and a power bat with a adequate hit tool.
              Rolison and McClanahan are there for me because of their left handed arms.

    2. matt13……I would be disappointed if Madrigal was selected. If it is to be a position player would prefer Bohm.
      I guess it comes down to the Tigers and Giants’ selections.
      Tigers would benefit from Madrigal in their infield, but then again they have liked to draft arms of late…..RHPs Manning and Faedo last two drafts.
      I just hope Avila decides to go position player this year.
      Giants…have no clue what Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans are thinking.

      1. Thanks….Cormican did reference the Sale comp by a few analysts as the article mentions also.
        Then again there have been Sale comps over the years and things turned out a little different for the pitchers.

      2. In 54 days, we’ll know if Mize is too much of a health risk to go 1-1. His performance should answer loudest to that question. Spitballing here, but assuming he’s okay AND the Phillies are not interested in a prep arm, what odds do we place on them selecting any of those potentially available at 1-3?

        McClanahan
        Bohm
        Madrigal
        Gilbert
        Gorman
        Hankins
        Rolison

  11. Hankins is a prep arm…..so as you lay out the Phillies will not be interested.
    Of the remaining….2-1 odds McLananhan.
    I prefer Bohm after that, then Rolison.

    1. After giving some thought to this last night, I would rank the draft prospects like this:

      1 Casey Mize
      2 Nick Madrigal
      3 Ryan Rolison
      4 Alec Bohm
      5 Jeremy Eierman
      6 Logan Gilbert
      7 Nolan Gorman
      8 Kumar Rocker

      Rolison gets the #3 spot because of current stuff, level of competition, past performance, and projectability. Rolison has been very good this season (39.2 IP, 39 H, 16 BB, 54 K) in the top conference (SEC) in the country. In addition, Rolison was dominant in the Cape Cod League last summer (6-0, 1.54 ERA, 35 IP [including playoffs], 16 H, 10 BB, 43 K). When you also consider that he is the youngest college arm available (won’t turn 21 until July), and he’s left handed, he’s a better draft prospect than everyone other than Mize and Madrigal. I went back and pulled up his Cape Cod scouting report from Frankie Pilierre (formerly of D1 Baseball.com, now scouting for the Mariners). Here’s a piece of it:
      “He did not have anything resembling a poor outing all summer and despite having just a year of college baseball under his belt he performed like one of the league’s most polished arms.
      Rolison seemed to ramp up his stuff and get sharper with each additional inning under his belt. After beginning the summer working at 90-93 mph, he began sitting at 91-94 and then eventual at 92-95 mph in some of his late summer outings. On average, he 92-94 mph early in games settling in right around 92-93 after that. But, routinely he was able to reach for 94-95 again when he needed a big pitch. That’s also the appeal of Rolison. He pitches under control, not at full-blast, and has the starter mentality that scouts are craving. He hit his spots with advanced precision consistently to his glove side, and was able to put hitters away with his true plus breaking ball at 80-84 mph. He calls this pitch a curveball, but only a couple at 80-81 mph showed the sort of shape of typical curveball shape we are use to. More frequently it shows nasty slider tilt and had very late action. Regardless of what you call it, there were scouts on the Cape that projected it as a potential 70 grade, elite strikeout pitch. And he already has outstanding command of it.
      Rolison also did a nice job of working in some 82-84 mph changeups in his late summer outings. The feel is clearly still developing, but it was better than the last time around. He needs to be sure he’s getting on top of it more consistently, but his arm speed was well-maintained.
      Command to both sides of the plate with two elite offerings, and the advanced feel for how to put hitters away are the factors that put Rolison on top of this list. If you’re lefthanded and can do things like lock up a righty hitter on the inside corner with a late-moving fastball at 94 mph, and you can do that after snapping off a nasty backdoor breaking ball to the other corner – you have the potential to pitch at the top of a professional rotation. Rolison is the perfect storm of stuff, command to both sides of the plate and a rapidly developing, high pitching IQ. Those types of pitchers typically go in the top ten picks in the draft. And that appears to be the path that Rolison is on.”

      1. Hinkie….good piece.
        Rolison or McLanahan appear to be two LHPs that the Phillies could use in their rotation…both have higher than normal BB/9 issues, but the report indicates Rolison, specifically has good command.
        I would not be too devastated if they took Rolison or for that matter McClanahan.
        Bohm and/or Madrigal, are both good selections also, but that would only make Klentak’s job that much more difficult in 2020….not sure how good he is at multi-tasking with all the yuong talented positional players needing a spot to play in the field.
        We can already see the challenge Kapler is having with the current team….add another draft piece into that equation along with prospects in the system like a Haseley/Randolh/Cozens etc etc…and it becomes daunting to say the least.
        Forcing Klentak to cull the herd at a low value.

        1. Romus … having too many good players/prospects (no matter what positions they play) is a great problem to have. Frankie Piliere was a wealth of knowledge while he was at D1 Baseball.com (when he left, I dropped my subscription). When I get time later today, I’ll post clips of his reports on other top draft prospects. The other draft guy worth following is Rob Ozga (The Baseball Draft Report.com). His site is free and nobody writes like him. As a matter of fact, he’s popped up on Phuture Phillies.com in the past.

      2. My pecking order at 1.3 will be as follows:

        1) Mize
        2) McClanahan
        3) Rolison – can be underslot
        4) Madrigal
        5) Liberatore
        6) Gorman
        7) Gilbert – underslot

        And the Johnny A. overreach specials is Brice Turang.

        Rolison, can be the LH version of Aaron Nola. He is rising in my pecking order. I’m actually OK with Liberatore as a high risk high upside pick at 1.3, but since the Phils don’t have Rd 2 and Rd 3 picks – i like the 1.3 as close to a sure thing – so I’m leaning Rolison who the Phils can sign underslot.

  12. With where the Phillies are right now in rebuild (exiting rebuild) I would expect them to draft someone who could be fast tracked to majors in say a year or 2. It could be an arm or a position player. Also I would not be surprised if they go after someone who will require paying the full slot rather than someone who takes a lower slot (think Moniak draft) to sign higher prospects later on. Needless to say at 1-3 this should be a very good player.

    1. Bob D……drafting a college player at 3, you may be able to get away with a little less than the $6.9M slot.

      1. Up until 2016 (the Mickey Moniak draft), teams picking in the first few spots were able to come together on under-slot deals with their draft picks. MLB revamped the slotting numbers after that. The slot amounts are now closer in value. As a result, what was once a slam dunk opportunity to save/reallocate bonus money has now dried up (with the exception of the 1-1 selection). Draftees now know they won’t lose as much money if they fall a spot or two (or three). This is what all this looks like:

        2016 Draft:
        1-1 pick value $9,015,000 signing bonus $6,100,000
        1-2 pick value $7,762,900 signing bonus $6,200,000
        1-3 pick value $6,510,800 signing bonus $4,000,000
        1-4 pick value $5,258,700 signing bonus $4,800,000
        1-5 pick value $4,382,200 signing bonus $4,125,000

        2017 Draft:
        1-1 pick value $7,770,700 signing bonus $6,725,000
        1-2 pick value $7,193,200 signing bonus $7,230,000
        1-3 pick value $6,668,100 signing bonus $6,700,000
        1-4 pick value $6,153,600 signing bonus $7,005,000
        1-5 pick value $5,707,300 signing bonus $7,000,000

        With all of this said, the chance of the Phillies getting an under-slot deal done with any player worthy of the 1-3 pick is very slim. Getting a below-slot agreement with Ryan Rolison is almost certainly not happening because he is only a sophomore and could return to Ole Miss as a junior in 2019.
        Under this new slotting system, teams are using the strategy of promising prospects they like (way) over-slot money in an effort to force that player to fall to them. Last year, Atlanta (picking at 1-5) guaranteed Kyle Wright nearly 1-2 money to slide him down to them. I have proposed multiple times over the past week that the Phillies use this tact. Klemaraz could/should guarantee Casey Mize more than 1-1 money. Some have questioned how this could be done w/o a second or third round pick. It can, I’ve posted how in last week’s open discussion. In a nut shell, you add the Phillies first round money, their 5% overage money, and most of their fourth, ninth, and tenth (minus a small amount for senior signs) round picks. Or Klentak could trade for a competitive balance pick. That would net the team their third round pick back, That third round pick is worth 726 thousand dollars. There’s no guarantee the Tigers or Giants wouldn’t match the offer, but it can’t to try.

        1. Hinkie…not sure it is that impossible to get an under slot at 1.3
          Based on the school level of your above selections:
          2016 Daft:
          1.1-HS…under slot
          1.2-Coll…under
          1.3-HS…under
          1.4-HS…under
          1.5-Coll…under
          2017 Draft:
          1,1-HS…under slot
          1.2-HS..over
          1.3-HS…over
          1.4-Coll…over
          1.5-Coll…over
          …..that is, even if Rolison was the selection, why would he want to take a chance of having a ‘Brady Aitken’ occurrence with his arm by going back for one more year of college ball, by refusing a $6M signing bonus.
          IMO, I can see the Phillies getting him for something small like a $250/350K savings….not much , but maybe enough to get that HSer in the 11th round.

          1. Romus … the whole point of the post was to show what happened after MLB cut in half the gap in slot values between the top 5 picks after the 2016 draft. Aside from the very first pick, the new slotting system (in 2017) caused prospects to get paid at or above value instead of taking lower offers when the bonus slots were more spread out. The reason for this (IMO) is because prospects don’t lose nearly as much money if they fall a spot or two, and the more tightly bunched slot numbers make it easier for teams to make offers to players that match/beat the slot number of teams in front of them.
            Yes. In 2016, every top five picking team saved money. In 2017, only the Twins (at 1-1) got a below value deal, and their aprox. one million dollar savings didn’t even come close to the nearly three million dollars the Phillies pocketed with the 1-1 in 2016.
            I can’t tell you for sure the Phillies will not get an under slot deal with someone at 1-3. However, the data from last year’s draft would certainly strongly indicate that it is unlikely, especially if they draft a kid who teams right behind them really like/want. If Klemaraz want an under-slot agreement, they can probably get one with guys like Jeremy Eierman or Kumar Rocker. They’re numbers five and eight on my own personal list I posted above, but I probably have them higher than most others.
            Teams (especially near the top of the draft) almost always have agreements with (or at least understand what it will take to sign) the player. If the Phillies wanted to play hardball (no pun intended) with a kid, they could draft him and force him to accept less money than they were promised from another club, or return to school and risk injury/return to next year’s draft as a senior (no leverage & smaller bonus)., That would be a real bad look for the organization and would probably come with consequences in future years with players’ representatives (maybe they don’t let their kids speak with Phillies’ scouts and FO people). Remember when RAJ reported to the NCAA that a couple of Phillies draft picks that didn’t sign were using agents to negotiate on their behalf. The organization became the scoundrels of MLB. You don’t want that.
            By the way, this is how the Phillies got Kevin Gowdy. They promised him 3.5 million dollars (which was equal to 1-9 slot value). Gowdy told teams he wouldn’t accept less than amount. As a result, he slid to #42 overall, and got the 13th largest signing bonus in the draft that year.

  13. How many scout do you think will be at this game ?

    1. Hinkie……what if Tigers decide to go position player?
      . Kiley McDaniel thinks there is a chance…..”Tigers are also looking at Jarred Kelenic — a high school outfielder out of Waukesha, Wis., as a possibility with the top pick. The interest in Kelenic, McDaniel adds, isn’t a smokescreen designed to lower the price on other players and seems to be quite legitimate. Kelenic saw the Tigers’ Spring Training facility back in early March, and McDaniel notes that he’s been hearing talk about the two sides since that time, though those rumors have increased recently.”
      ….that would really work in the Phillies favor then.

      1. That could be like Christmas in June for the Phillies !!!
        Of course, they’d still have to hope the Giants passed on Mize, too. As I’ve posted dozens of times now, the Phillies could help this to happen by putting together an above 1-1 slot offer to Casey Mize. The team with the 1-1 pick traditionally likes to save some money there to be able to draft/sign multiple high end prospect(s). Maybe the Giants don’t want to go over slot because their farm system stinks, and they also want multiple high end prospects in this very deep draft. The Phillies may have the deepest farm system in MLB. They can afford to go all in on the most eye catching gift under the Christmas tree, even if it means the rest of their draft is nothing but a stocking full of coal.

  14. I got in a couple of draft questions to Eric Longenhagen this afternoon:

    Hinkie
    If Casey Mize and Nick Madrigal go 1 and 2, who would you draft at 1-3 if you were the Phillies ?
    Eric A Longenhagen
    Bohm

    Hinkie
    Please rank Ryan Rolison, Logan Gilbert, Shane McClanahan.
    Eric A Longenhagen
    Inverse of you order

    1. Hinkie……interesting he has McClanahan, Gilbert then Rolison.
      Rolison is the only SEC pitcher which I would think would be a feather in his hat.
      And selecting Bohm would surely give them another good bat…….maybe they would keep in the back of their minds the Senzel oversight on ’16..

      1. Romus … I like them in the order I listed. McClanahan scares me because:
        (1) of all the top cop college arms, he has the loosest connection to the strike zone, and
        (2) possible looming arm injuries. McClanahan is a TJ survivor. This normally doesn’t bother me at all. However, I just get the feeling (probably because of his violent arm action and his thinner stature) he could be the type of kid who might be headed to further arm woes.

        1. Yes….there is a shelf life on TJ pitchers…..usually 800-1000 innings for MLB starters. That is, their velo starts to head south .

  15. I figured I would post parts of scouting reports on some of the draft prospects that the Phillies could be considering at 1-3. These are written by Frankie Piliere (formerly of D1 Baseball.com and now with the Seattle Mariners). They were written at the end of last summer’s Cape Cod League and Team USA seasons. I posted part/most of Ryan Rolison’s report this morning (a little further up the thread).

    Casey Mize … “He missed some time down the stretch with arm fatigue/soreness, but the returned in time for the postseason and then dominated in two appearances for Team USA before being shut down again with more soreness. Assuming he stays healthy next spring, Mize has a chance to be selected near the top of the draft, because his stuff is simply electric and his strike-throwing prowess is impeccable for a power pitcher. He has an athletic 6-foot-3, 208-pound frame and a smooth arm action that produces easy 93-96 mph heat, and he can really pitch off his fastball, which has good arm-side run and some downward plane. His go-to secondary pitch is a swing-and-miss split-change at 84-88 with late tumble, rating as a plus pitch when he’s got it going. He relied primarily on those two offerings this summer, when he posted a 0.00 ERA and an 8-0 K-BB mark in seven innings. He lacks a wipeout breaking ball, but his short 85-87 slider is a decent third offering with a chance to be solid-average. If he can develop that pitch more, he’s got a chance to be a true top-end of the rotation starter in the big leagues.”

    Nick Madrigal … “One of the most dynamic players in college baseball, Madrigal hit .380/.449/.532 with 20 doubles and 16 stolen bases to earn first-team All-America honors as a sophomore. Madrigal is an easy plus runner who can flash 70 run times up the line, and he puts his speed to good use on the basepaths. Team USA coach John Savage said Madrigal has “the highest baseball IQ that you can find,” and one scout called his instincts “so freakish.” That savvy shows up in all facets of his game. He has a quick first step in the middle infield that helps give him excellent range at second and short, though his average or slightly better arm is better suited for second. He’s a good enough defender to handle himself ably at either spot in pro ball, along the lines of David Eckstein. Offensively, Madrigal has a quiet, upright setup and a pronounced leg kick before unloading on the ball with surprising force. He’s a natural line-drive hitter who uses all fields effectively, and he has uncommon feel for centering balls on the barrel with regularity. His timing is exceptional, his pitch recognition is advanced, and he can handle fastballs on either side of the plate as well as quality breaking balls. He’s also gotten stronger during his Oregon State career; though he’ll never be a true home run threat, he drives the gaps with authority and has the bat speed to run into homers from time to time as well.”

    Jeremy Eierman … “Eierman has power that plays extremely well to the opposite field, and when he’s at his best you’ll see him driving balls out to the right-center field gap. He can turn on mistakes, but when he’s locked in you will see that line to line power. Eierman’s strong arm from deep in the hole at shortstop is also going to be a key differentiation for him with scouts. When you see him make a perfect jump throw to first base following a backhanded stab in hole and hit a towering home run in the same game, you see the allure of his tools. There are some scouts who see Eierman as a potential plus defender at third base, while others contend he can stick at shortstop long term. Either way, he’ll be a valuable defensive asset. The strikeouts remain a significant issue to watch with Eierman, and he needs to keep his chases on breaking pitches under control, but the scouts who believe in him will continue pointing to that athletic, plus power hitting left side of the infield profile.”

    Alec Bohm … “it was Bohm that took the league by storm with his lethal righthanded bat and extremely functional hit tool. The physically imposing 6-foot-5, 225 righty slugger hit .358/.399/.513 on the summer for Falmouth, mashing five home runs along the way. Perhaps his most impressive statistic, however, was his 12.7% strikeout rate. For a hitter of his size, length, and power that’s an incredibly strong stat. And, given that it’s consistent with what he’s done at school, it’s a stat that will allow him to play into early first round conversations.
    With his extra-long frame, Bohm is bound to have some length to his swing. So how is he able to maintain such a contact heavy approach without sacrificing his plus power? Take his showdown with Logan Gilbert in mid-July as an example of how he does it. After losing his first battle with the Stetson righthander, going down on a good sequence of curveballs and a high fastball, Bohm fought off some tough pitches and got himself into a 3-2 count where he knew he’d see a fastball in his second at-bat. Gilbert left a fastball slightly elevated over the outside part of the plate and Bohm muscled one to the opposite field gap off the top of the right-center-field fence. Bohm was vulnerable to Gilbert’s elite velocity on the inner third,but his approach is so sound that he was able to keep battling until he had a pitch he could extend on and drive. It’s the approach, the calmness, and the ability to recognize pitches out of a pitcher’s hand that separates Bohm as a hitter. No hitter looked more relaxed in the box on the Cape. He almost never chased a pitch out of the zone, and he knew just when to take a strike he couldn’t handle and wait for a pitch to drive. There may not be a power hitter in the 2018 draft class with a more advanced approach.
    While the length to Bohm’s swing will always be there, he has above-average bat speed and high level barrel control we don’t normally see from a hitter of his size and power. He can mishit a ball and drive it out to center and right-center, and he looks in that direction unless a pitcher makes a mistake inside. When that happens, he’s capable of hitting monster home runs to left field. This is a hitter who doesn’t need to over-swing to generate plus power. He’s a below average runner, and while he’s shown improvement at third base, looks more likely to be destined to end up at first. But, even so his potent bat and advanced approach could carry him to a first round draft choice.”

    Logan Gilbert … “6-foot-6 righthander Logan Gilbert. And his defining trait may be that he has the look of a pitcher out there playing a light game of catch. It just so happens that game of catch is resulting in explosive fastballs being blown by some very good hitters. Gilbert ended the summer with a dazzling 31-4 strikeout to walk ratio in 31.1 innings of work, posting a 1.72 ERA along the way.
    Gilbert carried an effortless high-octane fastball throughout his summer for Orleans, working at 93-97 mph early in games. He ultimately settled in at 92-95 mph on most nights, but could reach for 96 on some elevated put-away pitches late in outings. We also saw an uptick in Gilbert’s ability to miss bats as the summer wore on as well, and there was a pretty simple reason for that. He seemed to get more and more comfortable throwing his curveball and snapping it off with conviction. Thrown at 76-79 mph, Gilbert’s curveball was below average at times early in the summer but was around big-league average in terms of bite a lot more frequently in his late summer starts His ability to consistently throw it for quality strikes to both sides of the plate was also vastly improved, and proved to be more than enough to keep hitters from sitting on his power fastball.
    It’s also worthwhile to note that Gilbert’s 94-95 mph is not your typical 94-95. Gilbert, according to TrackMan data, generated upwards of 7-foot-6 inches of extension this summer, consistently checking in the 7-foot-3 to 7-foot-5 range. That’s significantly higher than elite pitchers with elite extension in the big leagues like Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Strasburg. Even allowing for the possibility that there’s a margin of error in the data or a small calibration issue, Gilbert generates freakishly good extension, allowing his plus velocity to play up even further. And he knows how to pitch up in the zone with intent, when appropriate, and take advantage of this.
    Gilbert also began to break out a changeup in the second half for Orleans, one of the last remaining items that scouts had been looking for out of him. Thrown at 82-85 mph, he worked under it at times, but showed some late tumble and maintained his arm speed fairly well. He will need to continue developing the pitch, but the fact that he was able to throw it increasingly for strikes was a great sign.
    Logan Gilbert outings were low heartrate affairs all summer. He filled the zone, worked efficiently with his pitch count, generated elite velocity with minimal effort, repeated his delivery and never seemed to get out of sync for more than a pitch or two. Following up on what was a tremendous spring in 2017, it’s this type of consistency and power stuff that look likely to send him potentially to a top of the first round selection in June. He still has plenty of room to add bulk to his lean frame, and he’s the type of extra low effort prototype that could still just be scratching the surface of how electric he could one day be.”

      1. Yeah. He does have a quick bat. He got screwed by the umpire his first time up. The pitched he was called out on was 6 inches off the plate (and probably low).

  16. … So … if there was any doubt who the top draft prospect is, Casy Mize put those questions to rest last night. Against Mississippi State, it took Mize only 106 pitches to go the distance and author another gem: 9.0 IP, 1 R, 5 H, 0 BB, 9 K. For the season, Mize has now totaled 63 IP, 37 H, 86 K. 4 BB, .164 OBA while pitching in the best conference (SEC) in America.
    Let’s hope:
    * Matt Klentak and Johnny Almaraz do the right thing, and make an insane (greater than 1-1 slot) offer to him.
    * Detroit and San Fran (both clubs with horrific farm systems) want to draft/sign multiple high end/expensive prospects in this very deep draft.
    * (Not wishing bad health on Mize, but) he is pitching (as is rumored) with a “funky” elbow.

    Meanwhile, Brady Singer and Ryan Rolison were good last night. Logan Gilbert was ok, and Shane McClanahan was not good on Friday night.
    Alec Bohn went 3 for 8 (all singles) with a BB and 2 K’s in a doubleheader yesterday.
    Finally, Nick Madrigal is expected back from his wrist injury by next weekend.

    1. Florida Gators again are loaded in the East with the Dawgs…and in the West Ole Miss, Arkansas and even LSU and Texas A&M could challenge when it comes to the SEC playoffs and the NCAA tournament later next month.
      Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar, could really jump up the draft boards if they dominate in the SEC playoffs and then the NCAAs.
      Casey Mize’s Auburn Tigers may not even make the NCAAs sitting at 5-8 in the conference but with a respectable 24-11 overall record….not sure how their RPI is however. And Mize’s 7 wins is 30% of their total wins.

      1. How good is the SEC ? Kentucky (IMO) is loaded with very good players, and they have a losing record (6-7) in the conference.

        1. Hinkie…that is why I would always drat college guys out of the SEC, ACC or PAC 12……at the least, they may have higher floors than most college guys.

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