Phuture Phillies 2018 Reader Top 30 Poll for the Phillies #4 Prospect

J.P. Crawford was your selection as the #3 prospect in the Phillies’ organization.

Crawford had been the Readers’ top prospect the past three years.  This year, Crawford was the overwhelming choice as the third best prospect in the organization.  He garnered 222 of 285 votes (78%).  Jhailyn Ortiz finished second (14, 5%).  Jorge Alfaro and Adam Haseley tied for third with 11 votes each (4%).  Eleven other players shared the remaining 27 votes.

Crawford was the Phillies’ first round (16th overall) pick in the 2013 June Amateur Draft out of high school.  He progressed rapidly through the lower levels of the organization.  He blitzed his way through the Gulf Coast League in 2013 with a .345/.443/.465/.908 slash and was rewarded with a late season promotion to full season Lakewood.  He opened 2014 back in Lakewood and after a .295/.398/.405/.804 slash was promoted to Clearwater by mid-season.  Crawford started 2015 in Clearwater but was quickly promoted to Reading after torching Advanced A pitching with a .392/.489/.443/.932 slash in 21 games.

At the upper levels of the organization, Crawford experienced his first prolonged lack of success at the plate.  In parts of two seasons at Reading, he slashed .265/.367/.402/.769. In parts of two seasons at Lehigh Valley, he slashed .243/.342/.369/.711.  During those difficult times, Crawford played through nagging injuries that were corrected with surgery during the off season.  He finished the 2017 season, a season where he suffered some terrible early season stats, with a promising .285/.383/.544/.927 in over 200 at bats before his promotion to the Phillies in September.

Crawford’s plate discipline is legendary.  Through AA, his total career walks outnumbered his total career strike outs 165 to 159.  At AAA, he still maintains a respectable 122 BB to 156 K, or 12.96 BB% and 16.6 K% in 941 AAA plate appearances.

With the trade of Freddy Galvis to San Diego, the road is clear for Crawford to begin the 2018 season as the Phillies’ everyday shortstop.  Since he didn’t accrue MLB service time until after roster expansion in September, he maintains his rookie and prospect status.

Next up is your selection for the #4 prospect in the organization with Luis Garcia and Abrahan Gutierrez added to the poll.

47 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2018 Reader Top 30 Poll for the Phillies #4 Prospect

  1. As expected, the Top 3 (Sixto, Kingery and JPC) is really a 1A, 1B and 1C type and the order will just depend on which factor weights more on the one who is making the rankings.

    The challenge starts at #4 as Alfaro supports are still intact and hoping that the defense will catch up soon.

    I voted for Haseley at #4 (another close call vs Ortiz). Haseley to me is like JPC – a good combination or potential and safety. While Haseley doesn’t display loud tools, he can be a very well rounded player like Kingery – can hit for average and some power, plus defense and has speed to exploit in the base paths. Haseley appears also to be in the fast track to the MLB and can play all OF positions.

  2. I expect a Haseley, Ortiz and Alfaro battle for #4 to #6. Although Alfaro is technically a prospect, he did not score high in my rankings(he’s #12 in my rankings behind the 10 below and #11 Randolph) since Alfaro has minimal projection left as a prospect.

    1) Sixto
    2) Kingery
    3) JPC

    4) Haseley – none of his tools are loud but he has a potential to be a decent 5-tool type of player that can ascend quickly in the minors level and he can play all OF positions too!!

    5) Ortiz – a combo of power and plate discipline is a dangerous ability to have. so far, Jhailyn has been addressing the red flags.

    6) delos Santos – he is a “wild card” in my ranking as my basis is based on what I read and not on what I see. Slightly above Kilome and Medina to be a much better CU.

    7) Medina – above Kilome since he appears to be safer to meet his projection as a potential solid #3. Medina has been performing in all levels he played.

    8) Kilome – the potential is higher than delos Santos and Medina but so is the risk. Kilome has left projection left than delos Santos and Medina, which concerns me since he still have a lot to develop. Back end of the pen might be Kilome’s ultimate destination.

    9) Moniak – Moniak is supposed to be a a safe player to project but he displayed a lot of red flags that need to work on, thus, the big slide in my rankings.

    10) Romero – he is close behind the other top pitching prospect not named Sixto Sanchez. Like Medina, JoJo also performed well in all levels he played although his overall stuff might be lower than Medina’s.

    1. KuKo…agree…Haseley was my choice…more proximity and also, IMO, where his higher floor almost converges with his ceiling..

    2. Kuko – I’m close to you on a lot of these rankings and am totally fine with Jorge dropping out of the top 10, although I think I’ll have him somewhere between around 7-10, not sure.

      I’m going with Ortiz, but Haseley is a great pick here too. Some of the reports are Haseley are much more pessimistic about his ceiling than I expected but I take that with a grain of salt because I think his hit and plate discipline tools are really good and because I expect him to hit the weights and get a lot stronger in off season now that he doesn’t have to train for pitching. I expect a big surge forward from him this year. That said, I love Ortiz’s potential and he really had a great year last year and the reports are tremendous.

      I don’t have the rest of the top 10 fully formed in my mind yet, but 4, 5, 6 are Ortiz, Haseley and Romero. Not a lot of lefties have multiple pitches, good command and can sit in the mid 90s, but I think Romero can. This gives him #2 upside potential, and that’s nothing to sneeze at.

  3. I went with Alfaro here. I’m a rule follower, for the most part, so I included him in my pole. I made the case, a while back, to not include him since he might be a game or 2 away from losing prospect status. Rules are rules, so I included him at #4.

    I have Ortiz as #5 and I still believe in Kilome at #6. I hope he really has a great year this year and he’s in the running for #1 next year.

  4. What a great system this has become. And the lower levels are still loaded. Good times.

    Hard to argue with Sixto as no. 1. Personally I keep JPC in that spot. His 2nd half, particularly in the power department, all but offset his sluggish start to the season as far as I’m concerned. While Sixto is skyrocketing right now, I’m not sure JPC lost enough luster to warrant losing the no. 1 spot.

    I’m going JPC, Kingery, Sanchez with the caveat that they are very closely rated in my mind and I could make a good argument for any of the three as our no. 1 prospect.

    At no. 4 I’m going with Alfaro who has the ceiling of an all-star caliber catcher. I think the hit skill will suffer in 2018, but he should hit for enough power to justify a semi-regular role. This said, I think we also see plenty of Knapp behind the plate in 2018. Perhaps a 60-40 split in Alfaro’s favor.

    I’m enamored with Ortiz. And both Medina and Romero are high risers in my view. I also think Kilome, if he puts it all together, has as high a ceiling as any of our pitching prospects.

    At no. 5 I’m leaning Kilome.

    * Some context – Mickey Moniak had 509 PAs at full season Lakewood in 2017 to Adam Haseley’s 74 PAs. Hasely is two years (25 months) older than Moniak.

    1. It’s interesting that you make this last point. I’ve been wondering if I’m sleeping on Moniak. He definitely struggled, but he was thrown into the fire in the Sally while other HS draftees were in Williamsport. (As the No. 1 pick, the org was absolutely right to do so.) He’s less than a year removed from having a 70 FV grade put on his bat. He’s fast, has a good arm and plays a down-the-middle position. There’s still a lot to like there.

      1. Mike,

        Good point.

        I dropped Moniak down to 11 from four last year. (Have Haseley at seven), but given his youth, we might have been expecting a little too much from him last year. Start him at Lakewood this season and maybe he’s a break-out and June promotion to Clearwater. He could start at Reading next year and still be only 20 years old on opening day.

        1. I probably have him between 11 and 15 based solely on the early scouting reports and pedigree. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have made the top 30. Ouch!! There’s a good chance he could end up being one of the worst 1st pick draft busts in MLB history, like Shawn Abner.

          Again, I’m not sure if the Phillies went with what they thought was the BPA (only they could tell you), but if they thought it was Senzel and skipped because they thought they had third base covered, that’s on them. Almost without exception, a baseball team should always pick the BPA in the draft, regardless of need or you skip a Reggie Jackson for Steve Chilcott (who? Exactly!).

          1. Little early to be on the bust train since the guy isn’t even 20 yet. I’ll wait a couple of more seasons before making any determination on the success/failure of this pick…

    2. Steve,

      I’m with you one through four, but put Ortiz at five. He’s got potential to be an uber star slugger and, at his very young age, he’s maturing in his discip[line and approach.

  5. Went with Ortiz over Alfaro although I’m wavering on Alfaro because he has some flags that are a long term worry, especially his lack of plate discipline…

  6. It was a small sample size (114 PA), but Alfaro had an OPS of .874 and an ISO of .196 in the major leagues last year. He also has an arm that should keep baserunners awake at night.

    Does he still have work to do defensively? Absolutely. Is he ever going to be a high OBP guy? Not likely. But he still has room to grow into a very good catcher who can give you huge power hitting anywhere from 5-8 in a lineup.

    After Alfaro, I’m torn between Medina, Ortiz and Haseley. Haseley vs. Ortiz is the ultimate high floor vs. high ceiling matchup. I tend to favor the latter … maybe someone will sway me one way or the other today.

    1. I debated Alfaro vs Haseley here…..but as you referred to in his MLB SSS, and just may not be enough to project…..what made me flinch was his 29% K rate vs his minuscule 3% BB rate in those 114 PAs….which was what close to mirrored his entire minor league metric in those two areas. Hopefully they improve and he maintains his OPS and ISO from those 29 games he played in.

      1. That would worry me more if he were a 1B or corner OF. But yes, the K/BB rate is definitely a concern.

      2. When I think of a good “outcome” for Alfaro I think about Benito Santiago, who had great tools but not very good plate discipline. In terms of foreseeable good outcomes, I think a Santiago-like career is what I think about for Alfaro. Now, could he be better than that? Yes, it’s possible if his plate discipline improves and he maximizes his power potential (no question the raw power is plus), but I think it’s more likely he’s not as good. If you forced me to guess how good Alfaro will become in the long run, I’m guessing he’s a guy who has a really good season or two and then becomes a second division regular or very good back-up. I’m not very excited about him and I won’t lose any sleep if he’s one of the guys included in a trade to get a top notch starting pitcher.

        By the way, if the Rangers’ GM woke up tomorrow and asked for Alfaro, Williams and Eflin or Lively for Cole Hamels and perhaps a guy in low A ball with a lot of potential (top 150/200 prospect), I might consider that deal. Cole Hamels would be perfect for this team and could finish his career where it started.

        1. Agree….with the Alf comp with Santiago…some really great loud attractive tools but you always seem to be wanting more….Alf probably will get you that 20 HR/30 doubles clip, but can see many see and misses with runners on.
          Also Hamels would be a perfect fit…..and do not think it will take a lot at this point to get him back.
          Alfaro and any of Eshelman, Kilome, Lively or Thompson may do the trick …Eflin being hurt would probably be a pitcher the would want to see pitch first in live action.

        2. Not only is Cole a perfect fit for this team as a player (lefty #2 starter with a high degree of reliability and perfect for a rebuilding team looking to shore up the top of its rotation), he’ perfect for them financially. Hamels has two years left to go on the contract. After that he’s 36 and the team should be able to sign him to a team-friendly 2 to 3 year deal with possible option years. I mean this is set up perfectly in every way if the trade price is right.

        3. The one problem with the Santiago comp is that he was three years younger than Alfaro when he was in his AAA/call-up year. He also had a much better year than Alfaro did.

          1. I think the comp is more in line with their raw tools…strong arms (70plus) and power.(60) Not so much their overall hit tool.

    2. My concern with Alfaro long-term is the terrible walk rate. It’s not unusual for players to put up big numbers over the first few months in the majors until teams/pitchers build their scouting reports on them. Alfaro will start seeing fewer pitches to hit if he doesn’t show an improved ability to be more patient.

      He has tremendous tools but needs some work to take advantage of them..

  7. Haseley vs Ortiz. I’ve read where Yelich is a comp for both Haseley and until last season, Moniak. Ortiz will be much better than Yasmany Tomas as his floor with Miggy Lite as his ceiling. Ranking is so subjective because some place proximity over floor/ceiling. I go with”the Big Dream” – my nickname for Ortiz.

    1. Right now, Ortiz is just a low level prospect with a huge ceiling and quite a bit of risk. But I’m not yet prepared to say that he will be better than any established major leaguer – I’ll leave those comparison for after he gets through with AA – it’s just too early to tell. And, by the way, I’m not being negative, just realistic. I love him as a prospect and voted him #4 due to the incredible ceiling.

  8. I am going with my picks this year as originally chosen when I turned in my top 30. Number #4 is Adonis Medina. I base this on one game I saw him pitch. He was dominant, allowing one hit. I was most impressed with his ability to throw a mix of pitches featuring a slider, fast ball, and change up with an occasional cutter. I was most impressed with his fast ball, which he threw at different speeds from 93 to 97 mph with a natural, easy delivery. His slider broke off the plate and got many swings and misses. His command was excellent. I am now a believer. He and Sixto should give us a great one-two combination.

    1. I’ve watched Medina in LWD 3 times this season. It’s amazing how good Medina’s SL is considering he only start using the SL this season (he used to throw CB as the primary breaking ball). The FB is a plus because of the movement and the command but it normally sits in 93-95 with occasional 96-97 to put batters away. The CU is still a work in progress as evidenced by Medina’s lack of confidence to throw it. I normally see the CU when pitching in the bottom order of if Medina is ahead in the count.

      I see Medina favoring the command over the velocity so its 93-95 that we will see the FB the most.

  9. After the obvious top 3 there’s another group and I think it’s been well described by others above. I’m still on Alfaro for 4 because I think he’s still learning and improving. The first time I saw him throw I was in awe. He has such a great arm that he didn’t have to learn technique but he is now. And he’s a big guy who is still learning how to block balls down too. His potential is there to be a 260/25 homer catcher with a rocket arm. It’s nice to have such good options for 4-10

    1. By the way, I don’t see the Santiago comparison at all. Two totally different types of ball players. A good comp would be Bo Diaz, a guy who had a few good years before dying young.

      1. “A good comp would be Bo Diaz”…huh?
        Bo put his bat on the ball…rarely struck out, average arm and little power)Alf’s
        ISO since 2011 has been n the .175/.185 range…Bo’s came out to .132 for his career)….and Alf and Santiago were and are plus runners for catchers.

  10. I went with Ortiz over Hasely. Alfaro I gave serious consideration but I see him just a step below even with the projection of being an above average and potential all star catcher in majors. Medina, Kilome, and De Los Santos all are neck n neck in my book but put them in that order. I believe in Moniak but he is outside my top ten. I am very very bullish on Roman Quinn – I feel he is a dark horse rookie of year candidate if he is given the chance to play in majors regularly. He ceiling is better than Odubel. His injury history really hurts the view of him as a prospect but I will say he could really surprise the league and all of us this year. Switch hitter with elite speed who can hit, walk, has some pop, and great defense in center (not out of the question for him to be versatile enough to play SS or 2B). Keep an eye on him.

  11. I agree with KuKo, and I went with Haseley. I am still a Roman Quinn backer, but, as always, he can’t stay on the field. Maybe this year! I am not that high on Alfaro. I think he needs a lot of work at the Catching position. Too much swing and miss to be a high prospect elsewhere. Next, I am to go with some of the Pitching before I go to Ortiz.

  12. I didn’t think Yelich is a good comp for Moniak or Haseley.

    Here are Yelich and Moniak’s age 19 seasons in the South Atlantic League:

    Yelich: .312/.388/.484 with 15 HR and 32 SB.
    Moniak: .236/.284/.341 with 5 HR and 11 SB

    Haseley had a good age 21 season, slashing .284/.357/.405 across 246 PAs in Williamsport and Lakewood. At the same age Yelich had 273 PAs in MLB (four levels higher than Lakewood) and slashed .288/.370/.396

    1. I never take the half season transitions from college to the pros too seriously. The stats are often very misleading. Guys routinely struggle and then take off the next year.

  13. Ortiz for me. Big ceiling combined with good performance against older competition. Being 18 and mashing against pitchers that just came out of college is nothing to be overlooked. It was really between him and Haseley, so I went with the guy who has more star potential, imo.

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