Box Score Recap – 8/15/2017

Lehigh Valley was shut out by Alec Asher.

Reading needed 15 innings to pull out a win.

Clearwater clubbed 3 HRs but were betrayed by a rehabbing pitcher.

Lakewood’s Bailey Falter out-dueled his counterpart in a low-scoring game.

Williamsport is on their All Star break.

The GCL Phillies won and moved into a tie for first in their division.

Lehigh Valley (69-53)  lost to Norfolk, 2-0.

Ben Lively gave up 2 runs in 6.1 innings on 8 hits and 2 walks.  Joe DeNato (6.35) mopped up.  The IronPigs had 4 hits – a Kingery double and 3 singles by Pullin, Cozens, and Moore who also drew their only walk.  Denato picked a runner off first base.

Alec Asher threw seven shutout innings at the Pigs.

Reading (63-57)  beat Bowie, 4-3 in 15 innings.

Elniery Garcia allowed one run on two hits in five innings.  Tom Windle (4.87) blew the save giving up 2 runs in two innings.  Austin Davis, Victor Arano, Ranfi Casimiro, and Shane Watson combined to throw eight innings of shutout ball with Watson getting the win.

The Phils scored 3 runs in the first inning on Kyle Martin’s RBI single and Damek Tomscha’s two-run HR (3).  They then went into hibernation until the 15th inning and Jiandido Tromp’s two-out, bases-loaded, game-winning, RBI single.

  • #21: El. Garcia (2.00): 5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
  • #25: Anderson (9-4, 3.59):
  • #29: Arano (1-2, 3.77): 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
  • #26: Tocci (.308): went 1-6 with a run scored, double, K, HBP
  • Tromp (.287): 2-7 with an RBI, 3 K
  • Martin (.196): went 1-5 with a run scored, RBI (60) , 2 BB, 2 K
  • Walding (.232): 7-day DL
  • Irvin (5-2, 4.47):
  • Davis (3-2, 2.82): 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
  • Watson (4-5, 4.26): 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB

Clearwater (61-61)  lost to St. Lucie, 5-4.

JoJo Romero struggled but kept the Threshers in the game. He gave up 2 first inning runs but kept the Mets off the board except for a lead off HR in the fifth inning.  Romero labored through a 24-pitch first inning.  A two-out, two-strike double did the damage.  But for the home run, he pitched effectively through the fifth inning.  Romero labored through a 29-pitch sixth inning, but even though he loaded the bases, he escaped without allowing a run and did strike out the side.

Romero pitched ahead for the most part, throwing 17 of 25 first pitch strikes (68%) and only reaching one 3-ball count, and that didn’t happen until the sixth inning.  He struck out the next and final batter on 3 pitches.  His FB sat 92-94 MPH and he reached 95 three times in the sixth including the final pitch of the inning.

Romero threw 106 pitches, 74 strikes (69.8%).  He got swing and miss on 25 of his 74 strikes (34%).  Ten came in the sixth inning (40%).  Seven of his 8 strike outs came on off speed pitches (84, 85, 84, 88, 84, 81, 89).  Romero throws a 4-seam and a 2-seam, so maybe two of those were 2-seamers.

Pedro Beato came in for his second rehab appearance and was just as bad as he was in his first.  The Threshers had tied the game and Beato came in and choked up the lead on some really hard hit balls.  He gave up 2 runs on 3 hits, including 2 doubles.  Trevor Bettencourt (1.69) struck out 2 in two innings.

The Threshers were plodding along in their usual anemic way when Cornelius Randolph launched a 2-run HR over the berm in right center field.  Wilson Garcia (13) followed with a similarly deep blast to right and the game was tied.  After Beato had gifted the lead back to the Mets, Jan Hernandez (16) hit a solo shot to left to close the gap to one run. Unfortunately, that was the Threshers last scoring chance.

Lakewood (63-58) beat Kannapolis 2-1.

The BlueClaws spotted Bailey Falter 2 runs and he made them stand up.  He pitched four one-run innings, allowed 4 hits and 2 walks, and struck out eight.  Addison Russ struck out 2 in two innings.  Will Hibbs (1.78) struck out 2 in one inning, and picked up his 15th save.

The BlueClaws scored two runs in the third inning on RBI singles by Daniel Brito and Adam Haseley who made his first Lakewood start as the DH.

Williamsport (25-24)  All Star break.  Five Crosscutters were selected – Jhailyn Ortiz, Greg Pickett, Kyle Young, Luis Ranirez, and Randy Alcantara.

GCL Phillies (28-16)  rallied to beat the GCL Yankees West, 3-2.

Jhordany Mezquita pitched five shutout innings.  He held the Yankees to 2 hits and 2 walks. He struck out six.  Victor Sobil relieved and blew the save, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in three innings.  He got the win when the Phillies rallied.  Jakob Hernandez brought down the hammer as he picked up his first professional save.

Mezquita threw his FB 91-92, t93 mph.  Sobil threw his FB 92-93 mph.  Hernandez threw a couple at 89 mph, but mostly threw a devastating breaking ball.

The Phillies scored a run in the second inning on D.J Stewart’s two-out, RBI single.  Trailing by one in the bottom of the eighth, the Phillies loaded the bases on a an error, walk, and infield single.  Walks to Keudy Bocio and Yahir Gurrola forced in the tying and go ahead runs.

D.J Stewart had a 3-hit game.  Keudy Bocio started in center field and led off.  He had an outfield assist at third base.

Having taken 3 games from the Yankees West over the last 2 days, the Phillies have climbed into a tie with the Blue Jays in the Northwest Division.  Both teams share the distinction of having the best record in the GCL.  The 3-game sweep dropped the Yankeees 4.0 games behind the leaders.  Oddly enough, the last place team in the 4-team division also has a winning record and is 4.5 games out of first.  This is easily the most difficult division in the GCL.  The Phillies have 16 games remaining in their season.

Here’s the affiliate scoreboard from MiLB.

Transactions:

  • 8/15 – Phillies placed LF Daniel Nava on the 10-day disabled list retroactive to August 12, 2017. Lower back strain.
  • 8/15/- Phillies recalled CF Cameron Perkins from Lehigh Valley IronPigs
  • 8/15 – SS Angelo Mora assigned to Lehigh Valley IronPigs from Reading Fightin Phils
  • 8/15 – RHP Adonis Medina assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters from Lakewood BlueClaws
  • 8/14 – OF Adam Haseley assigned to Lakewood from Williamsport
  • 8/13 – Phillies sent RHP Casey Fien on a rehab assignment to Clearwater Threshers
  • The organization’s rosters are up to date.
  • The organization’s injury list is as up to date as I can make it.
  • The organization’s Rule 5 eligibility list is as accurate as I can make it based on the information I was able to find.

105 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 8/15/2017

    1. Bummer. Now he loses most of 2018 season. He will come back stronger.

      There will be some that complain about this, but such is life.

      Hope for a quick recovery

      1. Pitchers are a risk. I Fell in love with the mets Harvey and he has been hurt. Baltimore had bundy who I thought would be the next great pitcher. injuries are the part you cant forsee with these kids. I don’t blame them for the Gowdy pick.

        1. rocco……statistics has shown, a higher percentage of the higher velo guys are at risk more than the lower velo pitchers for the UCL issues. Though in his case not sure he was a 95-97T98 guy.
          In any event, he will be 20 soon, and so he has time on his side.

          1. He pitched 9 Innings in 2016 for us. Somebody explain to me how he needs TJ almost a year after being drafted while only pitching 9 recorded Innings.

            Smells of damaged goods at the time of being drafted.

            1. They pitch during instructs and spring training. Not to mention when they train in the offseason. Highly likely that this happened after the draft.

            2. I am going to agree with ja. Freak injuries happen all of the time. The kid wasn’t going to be a factor for a while and who knows, maybe once he recovers, he is fast tracked

            3. And you don’t want to put people under the knife if you don’t have to. Makes sense for us commentators, but to be the one with a procedure that knocks you out at least a year is a different story

          2. There was an interview with Dr. Andrews and I believe BA. He explained that kids 16-18 are throwing 90-95+ which is adding more torque and strain on their undeveloped ligaments. The rate of surgery for HS kids has risen significantly. He also said each and every player should have 2 months a year of off time to recover, NO baseball activity. These kids are throwing harder and for longer periods of time. Going from say College to the minors to fallball to winter leagues without much rest. Although all areas and levels have adjusted to injuries with pitch counts it is not affecting injury rates. They are just throwing too hard. I believe Dr. Andrews also stated most kids who throw 95 or higher by 19 are very likely to need surgery. There is a new surgery available to prevent injury but should only be used for a minor ucl injury and prevent further damage not do it just to totally avoid any injury.

            1. They are also using PRP…Nola and Tanaka had that procedure.
              It is actually several injections of your own blood platelets and helps in regeneration of the frayed ligaments and in wound healing

      2. Such is life, true. But brings back to discussion the extreme injury risk of young pitchers compared to hitters. Have to wonder if it’s ever worth it to allocate fewer dollars to a top pick hitter to sign a top pitcher in 2nd round, instead of going after the top hitter you can get for your $.

        1. Bad break for the kid aswell as the Phillies, I still think the braves nabbed the pitcher the Phillies wanted like a pick before and while Gowdy was certainly linked with the Phillies many others could have that same claim, I think they will regret not taking BPA at #1, but I don’t do scouting for a living so it’s arm chair style or actually gym rat style I prefer to be the term because I don’t own an arm chair.

  1. Damek Tomscha ia hotter than a pistol. In his last 10 games @ Reading, he’s hitting .429 with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. Here’s a guy who can lift and carry the entire team. By the way, he has 6 BBs and 1 K over those 10 games.

    1. bellman,

      I’ve been following Tomscha for a while.

      He’s 25, a low draft pick and has been going against younger guys most of his brief professional career. But he has been hitting, and seemingly improving as he moves up. I saw him several times with the Threshers and he was more athletic than I expected.Makes me wonder if he might be a potential 3B answer for the Phillies in a couple of years. At least someone whose name is in the mix.

      Maybe those who have seen him more than me might have some insight to share.

      1. Since he’s been in Reading I’ve been pleasantly surprised by his defense/mobility/glove as well as his composure at the plate. Small sample still but I didn’t leave tonight’s game when I knew he was coming up next…someone to watch at least.

  2. I guess I’m the only guy awake this morning. Another DSL pitcher is making some waves. Leonel Aponte, an 18 yo, has a .94 ERA and a .82 WHIP. He has 58 Ks and 9 BBs in 67+ IP. He’s listed at 6’4″ 144 lbs so he’d make a perfect fence post but he was signed as a 17 yo and had a pretty good season in DSL last year.

    1. Forgot to mention, over Aponte’s last 4 outings, spanning 26 innings, he’s given up 12 hits and ZERO runs. He has 23 Ks and 2 BBs.

    2. Bellnan, right on. I noticed Aponte for the first time last night. He also only turned 18 on July 2nd. And he’s 6’4″. Could be very interesting to watch stateside next year.

  3. GIVE MONIAK A BREATHER

    He’s falling apart down the stretch. 0-4 with 3 K and down to .246

    He is 6 for his last 38 and his avg has dropped from .258 to .246 in the last 10 games

    He’s worn down obviously

    With Hasely’s promotion, it’s the perfect time to give him 3-4 days off to see if he can finish the season strong

    1. Moniak has gotten selective days off during the season. From August 7-15 he has played 5 games, rested three games and the team has had one day off. Not a brutal work schedule.

      1. Moniaks horrible season is pretty much the biggest story of the season in PhuturePhillies world and it gets swept under the rug.

        Let’s talk about the bad stuff too.

        1. Granted it is painful. Almost as painful as the Phillies losing seasons of late.
          But the player also feels the pain. So let us give him the opportunity to overcome it next season and not harp on it every day..

        2. It’s not getting swept under the rug – we are all discussing it at some level.

          Just because YOU think it’s the biggest story of the season, doesn’t meant that it is.

          I think there are other big stories such as:

          1. Scott Kingery is a stud
          2. Rhys Hoskins is looking like a first division regular – rock on!
          3. Sixto Sanchez could be an ace.
          4. The returns on the Hamels trade are not looking too great – Alfaro might be nothing more than a back-up and the jury is out on Williams.
          5. Bye, bye Mark Appel.
          6. The young group of L.A. arms – lots of “wows” there.
          7. The dreadful top 3 of the 2016 draft (so, this touches on Moniak of course).
          8. The precipitous decline and nearly miraculous recovery of J.P. Crawford.
          9. The disappearance of Dylan Cozens.
          10. The interesting new lefties in the system.

          Sure, the Moniak story is big, it’s very big, but it’s not the only Phuture Phillies news to share about this year.

          1. Catch I agree with you on your points.
            So far the 2016 isn’t shaking out to be the best draft up top, but it’s still early. TG just seems like someone who has to reinforce his dislike for a player.

            Question is 1.46+ WHIP considered ACE or TOR?

          2. Catch,

            I’m not saying they’re future MLB regulars, or they even make it to the Bigs, but we also have guys who have surprised to the upside enough to make them conversation pieces: Herlis Rodriguez, Jiandido Tromp, Damek Tomscha.

            Another pleasant turn is the consistent hitting of Carlos Tocci.

          3. I dunno if you meant those to be in exact order, but I’m more inclined to agree with TG if you look at the top of the 2016 draft as a whole. Having the top pick and slot money that comes with it is a huge opportunity that it would really stink to waste. A lot of the top 6 things on your list are things that we kind of already knew on various levels.

      2. It’s weird how obsessed he is over Moniaks failure. He only seems to comment when it’s time to rub that pick in our faces.

    2. Yep, those 3 college guys are off to pretty good starts, well expect for the Pukker who’s been a bit scattered…

    3. I was just thinking about this myself on my ride in this morning meaning how different this rebuild might go with either Senzel or Lewis in the mix with Haseley.

    4. You’re a riot, TG.

      Anyway, CF doesn’t appear to be the worst situation for the organization right now by a long shot. Just a shame ’16 wasn’t a booming year for draftees at all. Good thing next year’s 1:1 appears to be ours again….

      1. Am I the only one to think that Klentak has done a real poor job so far, especially with the draft?

        1. me personally, I never blame the GM for the draft. I think he has very little, to nothing to do with the draft. He may be involved on a macro level with the 1st pick (sometimes) but draft failures always fall squarely on the Scouting Director for me

          1. Yes, it’s true on a year to year basis that it’s the scouting director’s responsibility, but over a longer period of time it’s the responsibility of the GM to have the right guy in place and proper scouting team to support that person.

            As I’ve said, the jury is still out on Johnny Almaraz and, if it turns out that he whiffed on 3 consecutive top 10 picks, including the 1/1, then he’s going to have a very short leash. It’s too early to judge the 2015-17 picks, but right now, the early returns are discouraging, although Randolph and Haseley are showing some life. I keep wondering if the Phillies, in an effort to save money for a guy like Gowdy, did not pick the guy who was, in their view, the best available player. If so, that’s pretty much an unforgivable sin when you’re holding the 1/1, but I guess we will never know the answer to that question.

            Remember that Almaraz was an Amaro hire, so if Middleton starts complaining about the draft picks (and there’s cause for him to do that), he will likely go long before Klentak or MacPhail.

        2. Like Tommy said, it’s hard to judge a GM on the draft. Outside of the draft, Klentak has done nothing to warrant a poor job label. He’s given up nothing to acquire Hellickson, Saunders, Benoit, Neshek, Kendrick, etc besides scraps and money (little that the team obviously could afford) and turned them into better, albeit not great, pieces for the future. I won’t say he’s done a great job, but he’s done way better than a poor job.

          Let’s see what he does when the Phillies start signing big named FA.

        3. Blame goes to Klentak…blame went to Ruben
          Lets keep it consistent..
          Whoever is in charge is responsible.

          1. I didnt blame Ruben though. Specifically for the draft. And not even really in general.

            I think maybe the only major Amaro move I would take back is the Cliff Lee to Seattle trade. That was a killer.

            I happen to believe that he was forced to trade Lee by ownership if they were going to bring Halladay’s salary on though. There’s no other reason to explain why they would trade Lee then. Why wouldn’t they want both. The Phillies at that point hadn’t fully committed yet to being a financial behemoth salary-wise.

            Having said all that, the actual trade that Amaro made when sending to Seattle was pretty poor.

          2. I blame Ruben – completely – although I think he was assisted in his failure by Dave Montgomery. Ruben ran this team and the farm system into the ground so hard and so thoroughly that we could go 7 or 8 years between fielding above .500 teams. That’s a staggering failure. He’s screwed up baseball in Philadelphia for a whole young generation of fans.

          3. If you are talking a pick in round 12 that is all on the scouting director and his scouts. The very first pick in the draft with a $6.1M bonus is not just left to the scouting director. It was reported more than once that all the Phillies top brass (Almaraz, Klentak, MacPhail, Manuel, Gillick) personally watched Moniak play. I am sure more than once. So I look at that pick as a collaborative effort with Almaraz possibly recommending Moniak and the rest agreeing.

          4. That’s a fair point about the 1/1 pick – it was entirely a group decision – Almaraz was probably just one of many who had input and I’m sure he didn’t make the final decision.

          5. Oh boy here we go…Catch would blame RAJ for the Kennedy assassination you know because of his Cuban ancestry and all 🙂

            Fact is RAJ and Klentak cannot be compared ever because the two dynamics from which they operated were night and day and any failure to acknowledge that is blatant ignorance.

            And again as TG states above RAJ was blind sided by having to move Lee to Seattle.

            Monty was heavily influenced by Dallas Green who was heavily opposed to analytics and as much RAJ wanted and tried to build up that budget it was always met with resistance.

            Catch did you ever stop for a minute and think to yourself why all of a sudden that changed under Middleton

            RAJ was never going to openly throw his employers under the bus it would have meant career suicide and the Phillies ownership group was always good to his father and he was clearly frustrated with that dichotomy.

          6. So I get it now….it is a ‘group failure’ when there is hesitancy in laying fault to the responsible individual for the recent decision making….but in the past it was strictly one man’s fault for any draft decisions that didn’t pan out.
            Got it….lets keep the rationalization going strong.

          7. LOL – DMAR.

            Nobody will ever convince me that Amaro was anything but completely incompetent. People have to invent internal conspiracy theories in the Phillies back offices to come up with reasons why he was not really quite as bad as he appeared to be. Puh-lease.

            Anyway, let’s stay away from the Cuban ancestry stuff – I don’t care about his race, religion, ethnicity or anything else but his level of competence.

            But Amaro actually did have a positive effect on the organization – and I’m serious about this. You know how they say that the good is the enemy of the great? The point there is that if something is working there will be little institutional push to make it great. But when things fail miserably drastic changes are likely. Here, the failure of the Amaro administration was so deep and profound that it caused the ownership group to re-examine everything about its management team (including Amaro and Montgomery and company) and make wholesale changes in that team and the organization’s approach to player selection and development. That was a very good thing that I think never happens if the team chugs along at around .500.

    5. Come on now Gunn, I’ve defended and agreed with you to a certain extent in the past but there is no need to beat the drum again on how bad MM year has been. We all get it , we all see it. You got to give it a break, even though I will agree again to some extent, and while it might not be the biggest story it has to one of them, and I don’t care what anyone says about that. I personally wanted Lewis at the draft but thought MM was a good pick and still do, but I’m not on here every week saying it, once in a while would be fine if the Phillies teams were playing a player that you wanted well then sure describe his attributes or season or whatever.

  4. 65% that he doesn’t make the show is pretty damn discouraging for a former no. 1 overall pick. Let’s hope he progresses, though, and at least becomes an everyday regular.

      1. I can’t speak for anyone else Troll I’m not writing him off but I am concerned that he is struggling at this level conversely I never really worried about JP because he aced all the lower levels and was the youngest position player draftee we had in quite some time to make it to AAA.

        By and large I believe above average MLB players don’t struggle until they reach the upper minors.

      2. Most people aren’t writing him off yet, but they are legitimately concerned. Usually, young players with a bright future in the big leagues start flashing positive signs almost immediately, be it through an advanced hit tool, advanced plate discipline, outstanding base running skills or outstanding fielding prowess.

        I’m not writing MM off by any means, but he has not flashed a single advanced tool in his one full season in the minors. How could you not be discouraged by that?

        1. I echo this sentiment. In no way shape or form am I writing Mick off yet, but I simply wanted others to see his current game from another perspective. It shows that Moniak is incredibly raw right now and time is on his side. That’s all

      3. I’m not writing him off either

        Just saying his season was terrible

        And there’s a bunch of guys I’d rather have from that draft. And yes I said that at that time

        Your hyper defense of Moniak is almost as weird as what you consider my obsession with his terrible season

        1. I would rather have had 4-5 players over Moniak at the time. But, I’m not going to derail every thread about it.We literally have zero control over what the Phillies do with their minor league system. So, why keep harping about it?

      4. I agree with you Troll. Already assigning blame! Will they give RAJ credit if Moniak rakes next year? Equally laughable are people writing Haseley off after half a season. I suspect they are all people who wanted some other player picked #1.

        1. You love to make straw man arguments to argue against to make yourself look good. Show me all the posts of people “writing off Haseley.”

        2. Pretty much Hari. Because the Phillies didn’t pick his “player”, we have to hear that the actual #1 pick isn’t performing.I say wait until next year and he will shut everyone up 🙂 Moniak that is.

        3. For the record:

          I loved the Hasely pick
          And I liked the Randolph pick
          And the Nola pick
          And the Crawford pick

          and I’m believers in all of those guys still

          1. I make no judgments about the Haseley pick at this point except to say that he seems like a decent player.

            Half seasons played by college players after a long college season are often misleading and, in any event, this guy needs a year of hitting-only training to build his strength. We will get a much better idea of his abilities next year.

    1. brien taylor from 91 is the last overall #1 not to at least make the majors…with Appel and Aiken still pending as well, if Aiken counts despite not signing that year.

      1. Brien Taylor did have the fight that blew out his shoulder…but up until then he was on his way.
        Both Bush and Beckham came on eventually, but the results are not as expected.

    2. Mind you, I’m judging him based on what I’ve read and seen now. Moniak can be really good, but a lot has to go right. It’s only his first pro season and I’m largely optimistic

  5. I think the focus needs to be on Johnny Almaraz. He has had 3 drafts now.

    Kingery in the second round of 2015 is by far his best pick. Haseley this year might be his second best pick, but that requires a lot of projection. C Randolph is doing ok too. But his 2016 draft looks awful. And I mean more than just Mickey and Gowdy. It does not look like a good draft at all. If the 2016 draft doesn’t turn it around next year, I think he needs to be fired before the 2018 draft.

    1. I might lean that way V1 I’m thinking about a possible tale of 2 Johnny’s. He had one draft under the prior regime and now 2 under this regime.

      The evaluation influences in June 15 would have been entirely different than those of 16/17.

    2. Haven’t we learned that grading a draft a year out is very shortsighted? Also romero and Irvin are outperforming their slot, Moniak, while disappointing, did start the year off very well. Can we just stop predicting this kids future off of one bad half season and generally stop rushing to judgment on the draft as a whole?

      1. I can agree with the gist of what you’re saying but, on a site that depends on fan discussion and exchanging of opinions on a daily basis, I think it’s inevitable that people react to things sooner rather than later. Also, as the number 1 overall pick in the draft, Moniak–rightly or wrongly–is going to be scrutinized a great deal.

      2. I’m simply going off of what Moniak is right now, which I’ve alluded to. There’s much hope for optimism. I simply wanted to look at the kid through another lens, as opposed to the traditional slash lines

        1. John, if you want to submit an article, do it through me. For 2 reasons:
          1.) I control content on the site and will determine what gets published, and
          2.) the comment section is not the place for an article. It gets less readership there. Most readers don’t bother with the Comments because of the inflammatory and trollish nature of comments recently.

    3. Yes, I agree completely that the focus must be on Almaraz.

      As for the Moniak pick, I’m not laying that entirely at his feet because I am confident that decision was made by consensus – Gillick, MacPhail, Klentak – everyone and his brother had input on that one.

      Aside from that Almaraz seems, in many ways, to the opposite of Marti Woelover. Marti’s drafts were characterized by a focus almost exclusively on physical tools, often seemingly without regard to a player’s current baseball-related skills or age or important secondary skills such as plate discipline. A typical Marti pick was Anthony Hewitt or Aaron Brown – superb physical specimens who just weren’t good pro prospects (relatively speaking). His pitchers were all big guys who projected to have great velocity but maybe showed little in the way of command or secondary pitches. To be fair to Marti, he almost never had high first round picks and the two he had that I can remember – Crawford and Nola – it looks like he nailed.

      In many ways, I think the Almaraz hiring was a reaction to everything that was wrong with Marti. Almaraz focuses extensively on baseball related skills which, for hitters, means the hit tool (and I think plate discipline too) and, for pitchers, means command. The problem I see with Almaraz is that, if you don’t have a healthy enough respect for physical tools, you can get stuck with hitters who are not athletic enough or have unduly restrictive positional limitations – such as Cornelius Randolph. On the whole, however, I kind of like his view of how one looks at hitters because I agree that for a good hitter, power often develops later. It is his focus on pitchers that concerns me, however. Velocity matters. It matters a lot. I don’t like that we are no longer focused, at least in later rounds, on getting good young arms on this team. Just because a guy can trick hitters in A ball with good command doesn’t mean he is going to excel in AAA and the majors.

    4. Only 3 years? I would say 5-6 years is more likely. If we have to give a player 3 years to see what he can do, then the 2017 draft needs up to 2019 to see what they can do.

      My belief is that if we get 1 starter from a draft, it’s a success. Everything else in that year is gravy.

      2015 depends on Kingery.
      Sad to say, but 2016 looks like it depends on Romero.
      2017 is way too early to tell.

      1. Elite prospects don’t just come out of nowhere. They either have great scouting reports of elite tools or great minor league performance or both. So if you see a draft class that doesn’t have prospects with either great scouting reports or great numbers, then I think you have to be concerned.

        1. It should be said that elite prospects rarely come out of nowhere (hello Mike Piazza) but elite prospects can fail too (hello Mark Appel). If your beef is that nobody in the 2016 draft has “elite tools”, I can’t respond to that since I don’t know. I’m just taking the word of others like scouts when it comes to tools.

          I don’t get hyped up until they hit AA. Way too much can happen before then, and prospects fail like crazy. And once they hit the bigs, they’re not prospects anymore, they need to produce. And even if you were once the mid-season #1 prospect (hello Dom Brown), if you can’t produce, you’re out.

    5. Phillies need to take hard look at instructors in off-season. We should be talking about loaded minor league system but were not.

  6. John, please explain how BABIP “takes into account the talent level of the pitcher.” Not sure how it could.

    1. It most certainly does. BABIP takes into account only balls that are batted in play, minus home runs. If there’s a higher BABIP than the norm, it could imply that a hitter is elite and hits everyone or he’s making good contact against crappy pitchers. If a player’s BABIP is low, it means he’s making weak contact against elite pitchers, he’s flat out awful and can’t hit anyone or he’s getting unlucky against good defense. Other statistics must be combined with BABIP to explain offensive value. Traditional batting average assumes that every pitcher a hitter faces is the same. Not the case with BABIP

      1. What? If a player’s BABIP is low, he could be making weak contact against crappy pitchers, right? It doesn’t mean “he’s making weak contact against elite pitchers”. BABIP over, say, the course of a season, doesn’t distinguish between elite pitchers or crappy pitchers. Batting average doesn’t either.

        The only difference between batting average and BABIP is that BABIP excludes strikeouts and home runs. That’s it. It is a measure of quality of contact and luck. So if a hitter has a low BABIP but his line drive percentage, ground ball percentage, and fly ball percentage aren’t abnormal, that probably means he’s been unlucky. If his BABIP is high, and it can’t be explained by batted ball data (for instance, a higher than normal line drive percentage) or outstanding speed (such that he could turn ground balls into infield hits at a higher than average rate), then he’s probably been lucky.

        But BABIP and batting average make the exact same assumptions about the pitchers — that is, none. After all, BABIP only excludes strikeouts and home runs.

        1. Correct, which is why I’ve included five other metrics to test Moniak. One doesn’t explain everything

          1. BP does give it a go with their WARP metric …Moniak stands at 1.4 so far this season.
            With their scale set somewhat at approx.:
            Excellent – 10
            Great – 5.
            Average -2.0
            Poor – 0.5
            And VORP (value)…his is at 18
            And an approx scale:
            Excellent -90.
            Great -50.
            Average -20
            Poor – 5

  7. Thats a great an interesting read but I didn’t need anyone to reinforce that fact that MM year has been a disappointment, and yes it has been my biggest disappointment, I guess because I had such lofty expectations.

  8. This thread is sizzling hot today LOL it might have more caffeine than the Vente Starbucks I had this morning

  9. Jim … thanks for the quick scouting report on Jakob Hernandez. He’s been a late pick I’ve had some hope for since joining the Phillies this June. Great to hear about his devastating breaking ball, but I’m a little disappointed to hear he is only throwing 89 MPH. At 6’4″/ 260 lbs, the Hefty Lefty has almost no projection. Even with his lack of velo, he does have a track record of being able to pile up the K’s. Hopefully, that breaking ball is good enough to carry him through the system.

    1. He threw so few FB, I hesitated even mentioning his velo since the 2 or 3 he threw would qualify as among the smallest of sample sizes. It was clear to me (which really means nothing when you think about it) that he is relying on his CB a lot. It didn’t even look like he was throwing his FB during his warm ups.

      And that could be his plan when he takes the mound. I overheard a long, multi-inning conversation he had with a former team mate/opponent from college a couple weeks ago. He sounds like a very smart, educated kid. He probably has learned that he doesn’t need more than the CB against GCL hitters.

      1. OK, on the one hand we have a detailed explanation from ESPN and a detailed explanation from Fangraphs, and neither one mentions or implies that BABIP takes into account the talent level of the pitcher in any way that’s any different than batting average.

        On the other hand, we have your posts. Which, by the way, have no explanation for how it could take it into account, since it’s reflecting a significant portion of the very same at bats that are reflected in batting average.

        I’ll rely on the retailed explanations from credible sources.

  10. Sixth Round draft pick Daulton Guthrie has begun his professional career with a bang ! The former Florida Gator SS belted a two run homer in his second AB for the GCL Phillies today !

      1. I know Guthrie’s background, Rocco. I mentioned he’s a former Florida Gator SS. Not saying he’s on his way to usurping JPC as the Phillies #1 SS prospect. Just noting his positive start.

  11. thank you john. regardless of your analysis and conclusions, the primer is an excellent explanation of what these statistics mean. after 50+ years of relying on triple-crown numbers to measure a player’s value, it has been difficult for this old dog to understand and embrace these new numbers. your effort to simplify them is greatly appreciated by those of my ilk.

  12. One other note on Dalton Guthrie … he’s not your typical 6th round draft pick. He’s got a nice pedigree. He was a top 100 HS player in 2014. He’s a team leader who won two Florida state HS championships in addition to a CWS title while at U of Fla. He was considered a legitimate first round talent before a sub par jr season as a Gator. He may turn out to be a glove-first SS who may be a future trade piece, or even a bench player for the Phillies.

    1. I think you are spot on.
      He may be a light hitting contact hitter, perhaps in a utility role
      Barely cracked .700 OPS in his last year at Florida…but his k%-15 and BB%-10 were fine.
      But his teams were all successful and he was their shortstop.

  13. From the Keith Law chat today:

    Michael: What are your expectations for Rhys Hoskins?
    Keith Law: Above-average regular. I’m in. He’ll continue to beat expectations.

  14. Pivetta optioned back to LHV, anyone have an opinion on why? Missed bed check, told McClure to take a hike, only struckout 11, couldn’t last 6 innings, what is your take?

    1. He’ll likely be back for his next start on Tuesday (double header vs Marlins). Paper move since they need a position player with Doobie’s hammy day to day.

  15. Is it just me or do the Phillies – and really professional sports teams as a whole – just not get the way a hamstring injury works? Once a player tweaks a hamstring he probably needs to be out for two weeks minimum. Whenever a guy says he just “tweaked it” and tries to come back 3 or 4 days later, he just aggravates the injury and has to be out 4-6 weeks (Jimmy Rollins, Aaron Altherr, etc. . . .). These freaking hamstring injuries are the slowest healing and most easily exacerbated injuries you can imagine – and if you’ve one, as I have several times, you know what I mean. Odubel said he was in pain, which means the injury is probably already pretty bad – if he comes back within the week my prediction (it’s barely a prediction – it’s pretty much a guarantee) is that he plays a day or two, makes it worse, and is out for most of the rest of the year. Where’s the learning curve and why aren’t the Phillies doing more on a stretching program to prevent these injuries – they have more of them than any team I know.

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