The Phillies rebounded during their travels with a 3-3 week. They came back from the west coast and swept a two-game series in Atlanta. Then, they came home to face the Mets and dropped 3 games in a four-game set. They have a 43-72 record and a .374 PCT.
The Phillies head back out west to play 3 games in San Diego and 4 games in San Francisco.
The Phillies are 26.0 games out of first place in the East Division. They are 9.0 games behind the fourth place Braves. They are 21.0 games behind the Diamondbacks and Rockies in the Wild Card race.
Now, the race we might have a chance to win –
|Bottom 10 Teams||W||L||PCT||GB||L10||STRK||PCT 7/31||Net Gain/Loss|
|Chi White Sox||45||70||0.391||2.0||4-6||L2||0.376||-1.0|
In spite of the Phillies 3-3 week, the three closest teams in the race to be the “First of the Worst” lost a little ground.
Key dates remaining:
- August 31st, 11:59 PM EST – Waiver Trade Deadline
- December 10-14th – Winter Meetings in Orlando
- December 14th – Rule 5 Draft
Last Week’s Transactions:
- 8/12 – Phillies sent RHP Pedro Beato on a rehab assignment to Clearwater
- 8/11 – Phillies placed RHP Vince Velasquez on the 10-Day DL. Right middle finger injury
- 8/11 – Phillies recalled 3B Ty Kelly from Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
- 8/11 – Reading placed 3B Harold Martinez on the 7-Day DL. Right hip flexor strain
- 8/11 – 2B Derek Campbell assigned to Reading from Clearwater
- 8/11 – Carlos Duran assigned to Clearwater from Lakewood
- 8/11 – RHP Connor Seabold assigned to Clearwater from Williamsport
- 8/10 – Phillies optioned CF Cameron Perkins to Lehigh Valley
- 8/10 – Phillies selected the contract of 1B Rhys Hoskins from Lehigh Valley
- 8/10 – Lakewood BlueClaws activated C Henri Lartigue from the 7-Day DL
- 8/10 – Lakewood BlueClaws placed LHP Jonathan Hennigan on the 7-Day DL retroactive to August 9, 2017
- 8/10 – 3B Jack Zoellner assigned to GCL Phillies from Lakewood BlueClaws
- 8/9 – Reading Fightin Phils activated LHP Elniery Garcia from the restricted list
- 8/9 – RHP Ramon Rosso assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters from GCL Phillies
- 8/8 – Phillies recalled RHP Zach Eflin from Lehigh Valley IronPigs
- 8/8 – Reading Fightin Phils activated C Chace Numata from the 7-day disabled list
- 8/8 – C Austin Bossart assigned to Clearwater Threshers from Reading Fightin Phils
- 8/8 – Clearwater Threshers placed RHP Edgar Garcia on the 7-day disabled list
- 8/8 – Clearwater Threshers placed 3B Jose Antequera on the 7-day disabled list retroactive to August 7, 2017
- 8/8 – Lakewood BlueClaws placed CF Carlos Duran on the temporarily inactive list
- 8/8 – Luis Carrasco assigned to Lakewood BlueClaws from Williamsport Crosscutters
- 8/8 – RHP Mauricio Llovera assigned to Lakewood BlueClaws from Williamsport Crosscutters
- 8/8 – RHP Alejandro Requena assigned to Williamsport Crosscutters from Lakewood BlueClaws
- 8/8 – Elniery Garcia issued #8 on the Reading roster, although on rehab assignment still listed as on Restricted List
- 8/7 – Phillies placed C Andrew Knapp on the 10-Day DL retroactive to August 4, 2017. Bruised right hand
- 8/7 – Reading Fightin Phils placed RHP Alberto Tirado on the 7-Day DL retroactive to August 5, 2017. Right shoulder strain
- 8/7 – Clearwater Threshers activated SS Jose Gomez from the 7-day disabled list
- 8/7 – CF Carlos Duran assigned to Lakewood BlueClaws from Clearwater Threshers
- The organization’s rosters are up to date.
- The organization’s injury list is as up to date as I can make it.
- The organization’s Rule 5 eligibility list is as accurate as I can make it based on the
Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.
256 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of August 13th”
Took a little time but congrats to Rhys “Hopkins” for getting his first major league hit. I’ll throw the gauntlet down now and make the prediction that, assuming regular playing time for both, Hoskins has a better .OPS that Joseph does for the rest of 2017..
Is Rhys ofer in LF and his only hit came while playing first base…
or more likely a matter of pitching opponent
🙂 thanks for allowing me to troll a bit…
That’s what I’m here for 🙂
I’ll take that bet.
What happened to Odublel happened to me in little league (or whatever the league is before legion ball). It was the semi championship game and I had gone hitless in my previous at bats. In my last plate appearance I was HBP to load the bases, no outs. Trying to redeem myself, I determined to steal second on the first chance I got. About 3/4 of the way down the base path I looked up and saw my teammate on second looking at me in disbelief–and that’s when I turned around and bolted toward 1B. Unsurprisingly, and despite my tremendous speed, I was thrown out. But the carnage ensued. As I was being thrown out at 1B, the runner on 3B tried to steal home. He was called out. As that was happening, the runner on 2B tried to steal 3B. He, too, was called out. So, in effect, I was the cause of, to my knowledge, the only triple play in baseball history in which a pitch was never actually thrown. So I can definitely relate to Odubel on feeling embarrassed, because not only would none of my teammates talk to me, but my coach, in front of all the other players and parents, straight up called me an idiot (didn’t help that I was the only black player on the team, also). However, all was forgiven when we won the championship a week later. I was the closer, and got the final out haha
Now that is funny.
I wonder how that scorecard looked after all that!
didn’t stick around long enough to find out!
Has anyone asked Freddie Galvis why he refused to tag up even though Larry Bowa wanted him to go?
So you say there’s a chance? (that Doobie will grow from this experience and that there is a title in the Phils’ near future)
That’s a beautiful baseball story. Thanks for sharing! And, don’t worry, anyone who has played the game has similar tales to tell.
Like the first time someone attempted a straight steal of home against me, and, seeing him in the corner of my just jet from third, I froze; and balked in the run.
Is Herrera a building block for the future of the Phillies or is he more valuable as a trade chip in bringing back a TOR starter?
There’s no question about his physical talent but I don’t want to hear anything about his WAR. When a player regularly “taketh away” from opportunities to score runs, it matters little how much he “giveth”.
His silver lining is a team friendly contract. Problem is, what team is willing to put up with his risky stupidity?
Who knows 8Mark but if it were me this is my #1 priority to explore…
8mark….as far as position players go…his WAR is only behind Mike Schmidt’s for his first three seasons as a Phillie.! 🙂
Chase is close but his first year was only 40 some games.
But agree with you…if he can bring back a potential TOR arm then go for it.
However, there is risk there, since he will not bring back an already TOR, it will have to be as they say, a major league ready prospect. And the WSox have a few they may be able to spare for the Doob.
We’ve seen the good and the bad of Doobie. CF and 2B is a strength of the organization and I’ve been saying that the best options in CF and 2B is current not with the team so I’ve been proposing to trade while the value is high.
Doobie should be able to make a decent return given his talent and cost. Or Klentak can just find a GM that is a sucker to WAR and who knows that manager might give up.
Mental aptitude and instincts are something that any statistics cannot measure. Everybody already knows who are the 2 current Phillies that I’ve already moved on.
Trading out a player is viewed not only return that a team receives but also replacement to fill that void. I think that while both Doobie and Cesar can be very good MLB players, they skill set are replaceable since they are not hard to find.
Currently, Doobie and Cesar might be the best CF and 2B but I’m still in the opinion that both are not the best option at CF and 2B when the Phils are contending.
Since I’m looking ahead, this might look foolish now and I’m fine with that. Most successful GMs find their success by being ahead of everybody else and make their moves with the thought of 3-5 moves down the road (like how great grandmasters in chess do). This is the philosophy I follow.
I’ve played chess a lot back in the day and if you’re sacrificing pieces, that means that your move will increase your odds of winning. If you’re not getting an elite starter for Odubel, I don’t see how trading him is going to increase your odds of winning.
I guess you would have traded Shane Victorino back in 2007? The Phillies did have Michael Bourn at the time.
Guru – trading Doobie and increasing odds of winning are not in the same lever (like micro vs macro). and there’s also timeline – which is a critical factor on when GMs make their move(s). For now, we can only speculate when the Phils ready intend to contend although reading between the line it’s probably around 2020.
Ken Giles is a victim of that timeline. There’s a market and leverage so Klentak pull the trigger with the best offer on the table. Although with hind sight, Klentak probably could have gotten more if he waited for the July trade deadline.
With the core already established in 2007, the timeline for the Phils is closer (within 2 years) compared now (within 4-5 years). So it makes sense for the Phils to keep the best option that they have that time – which is Victorino and instead used Bourn as a currency (via trade) to address a weakness – acquired closer and moved Myers back #2 behind Cole. I don’t see any parallel between Victorino (in 2007) vs Doobie (2017) because the timeline is different.
There will be plenty of teams willing to take him on.
I’ve gone back and forth on Odubel, but, unless they can get a haul for him in a trade, I’ve decided that I’d prefer to have him around.
He’s more than a bit nutty, but a few things keep me on him. First, he is crazy talented with the type of bat control and athleticism that few players can match. Second, he’s been a valuable (if inconsistent) player each year they he’s played – he’s a first division regular right now. Third, he’s young and I think he’s improved quite a bit, especially as a fielder and a guy who is growing into his power – I don’t think we’ve seen his peak years yet and those peak years might really be something. Fourth, while he’s goofy and needs to focus and greatly improve his approach, he’s not a contrarian or bad guy – in fact, he’s just excitable and immature, but he’s got a lot of positive energy which leads me to believe that at least some of this dumb stuff can be coached out of him over time – just like they appear to have done with Cesar. Fifth, is the “sports radio” reaction to this – nothing will get a Philadelphia fan more incensed than a stupid mistake (and I get it – I was screaming at the TV yesterday too!) but, truly, the good he does far outweighs the stupid mistakes, so let’s put it in perspective.
The Phillies have a lot bigger problems than their centerfielder, who is infuriating at times, but is a definite net positive. So, I don’t think I’d move him unless I get a real haul – there is no reason to sell him for lesser value just to replace him.
Catch I completely agree with everything you said. I love the guy I really do bone head plays and all. I just believe this team is so pitching deficient that the only chance they have at a young TOR is to move him for one.
And because I bemoan A tier Contracts e.g. David Price, Max Scherzer for TOR’s this would be my preferred route. That said you gotta be sure of who you are getting back.
There no sure things in baseball prospects.
@catch – i think we basically saying the same thing. Most of my arguments are philosophy based so I’m less political in nature. My point of view is to trade a player (Doobie, Cesar in this case) while their value are high which means “leverage”. Leverage is the essence of all trade negotiations.
While saying “trade for a haul” rings bells in everybody’s ears and will 100% elicit a thumbs or a like from everybody, this is “procrastination trap” that every fall that mostly leads to missed opportunity(ies). Market (supply and demand) and leverage determines value. I teams want to establish high value, then they nede to looks for market and create leverage. I’m sure that most here are still enamored of the Adam Eaton deal.
also understand that my view of prospects are like “currencies” – this is the reason why I preferred high ceiling prospects in the draft. Doobie and Cesar are like currencies that has appreciation gain who i think are already close to their ceiling. This is another reason why rather use that “appreciated value” to acquire another currency (player prospect) who I think will have more ceiling (TOR, etc).
The good outweighs the bad by a huge margin. If he’s not going to bring back an elite starter (he won’t), then why bother trading him. Unless you think Lucas Giolito is an elite starter.
If we trade Odubel, I predict he will make that trade look terrible for the Phillies in a few years easy, just by his defense alone.
I agree with many of you in support of keeping Odubel.
He’s 25. As catch22 pointed out, he’s exciting, affable, and fun for the clubhouse. If he can harness that energy and convert it into leadership he could grow into one of the top players in the game. The guy can flat out hit. And his D has become a major asset. Plus, of course there’s the team-friendly contract.
One more thing. Not sure if any of you saw this article back in May, but I found it enlightening to explain Odubel’s struggles early in the season. Tim Guenther argues that pitchers had adjusted to Odubel to start the season and Odubel needed to adjust back. Within about a week after this article was published his season turned around significantly and he’s kept it up bigtime! To me this suggests he’s learning from his time in the film room and batting cage, and/or he is accepting of coaching. And he applies it well!
I would say that Odubel is not a trading chip for a TOR starter unless that player came with warts of his own — bad attitude or bad contract. The Phils might have tempted the Giants by offering Herrera for Johnny Cueto who can opt out of his contract at season’s end (and otherwise is signed for 4 years @ $21 M per.) I’m not sure Cueto is more likely to opt IN by coming to Philly than remaining in SF so this wouldn’t offer the Phils a rationale for the deal.
An in-season Adam Eaton-style injury for a CFer on a contending team is the best chance of getting a solid return on Odubel but it wouldn’t be a top starter coming back from a team in contention.
So any move for Herrera would represent a ‘sell low’ event, as it would be for Franco.
The Phils should bring in young talent to compete at 3B and CF. Make playing time become the performance incentive for Franco and Herrera that it hasn’t been till now.
I really thought you would be pushing for a Verlander deal with Doobie involved….and perhaps throw in a Beau Burrows.
I agree that Franco needs some competition, not sure why you would say that about Odubel. Odubel has to be top 3 in defense and his offense is pretty good too. Even with his his blunders, he’s still going to be a 3 WAR player.
Fighterflea – this is one of the most reasonable Doobie trade I’ve seen here. At least you don’t fall into that “procrastination trap” that i’ve been talking about. Waiting for that significant trade haul that everybody is saying as a condition to let go Doobie. I’m for certain that teams saw the same good and bad from Herrera. The best market for Herrera right now is either a) small market team with limited budget but plan to contend; or b) mid to big market where they will not rely on Doobie to be their main guy.
And I’m also sure that most GMs don’t really care about how many WARs that Doobie has and I don’t even think Klentak can use that as a leverage. Doobie’s value is high because of his team friendly contract and his abilities (above ave hitting and defense).
KuKo….there you go again…thinking GMs are somewhat WAR illiterate or ignorant of analytics. For the life of me….where did you ever get that idea?
Matt Klentak speaks GM talk along those quite frequently.
They know Herrera’s value.
And I think it is more along the lines of the Adam Eaton return or higher.
Did you not hear Middleton’s presser in November 2015…he wanted more analytics in the organization….and they went ahead and hired more.
Once rocco is hired…it will be complete. 🙂
@Romus – i advocated for analytics infrastructure in the past and that’s is true even up to now. However, analytics/sabermetrics is not WAR. Analytics/sabermetrics is a crucial part of any business not just baseball. Not because i don’t believe in WAR doesn’t mean i don’t believe in analytics/sabermetrics. I know the importance of data because that’s my job. i literally bleed numbers.
So when you say that GMs are ignorant of analytics – I didn’t say that and didn’t mean it that way. Again WAR is just a part of a sabermetrics (so micro vs macro again). I believe GMs use sabermetrics all the time but they just don’t look at WAR by itself. There are a lot of advance sabermetrics that they can use to evaluate a player (again not just WAR) and I will not be surprised to if GMs have they own calculations.
I believe in the whole sabertrics thing. But I just don’t believe in WAR because it is a flawed calculation. The fact that MLB has not officially adopted WAR only adds to my skepticism.
In this Fangraphs article last year on this topic……it appears the MLB community has turned the corner on it.
i’m good with all baseline and advance statistics except WAR. I’ll wait for the sabermetricians and MLB to get comfortable with it then I’ll change my position.
KuKo…some believe WAR is the summation of all metric measurements.
Romus – i expect that from Fangraphs since its managing editor Dave Cameron wrote this….
However, i think this study holds more water than Cameron’s article.
I see the logic behind the WAR calculation, but there are too many variables that can change the meaning of the results. IMO, believing in WAR is like taking a drug that is not approved by FDA – basically take it at your own risk. My stand is I’ll wait until MLB officially adopts WAR before I give value to that stat.
KuKo….well as we get further along into analytics in baseball……many aspects of the metric models will more than likely be incorporated into WAR calculation.
i can see that happening. some of the advance metrics used in WAR calculation showed wide variability due to lack of data. Once more historical data are made available, these variability will eventually smooth out given more consistency in calculation.
But for now, I’ll use WAR with caution. Baseball has a lot of aspects that cannot be quantified by sabermetrics.
One of the biggest issue is the defensive metrics that go into calculations of WAR.
This has been identified as one of its faults.
So many different quantitative models are used….but not sur how valid they all are,
@romus – i think the biggest issue of WAR is the lack of understanding of its usage. By definition itself, WAR is measurement of a players contribution to his team. It’s not a measurement of a players performance. So it’s hard to use WAR as a gauge when assessing players projection and performance.
Rocco took a job with Fan Graphs so the Phils may be too late. He’s in charge of the WAR room.
Aaron Nola is a BEAST!!!
You know, we’re all blasting Tommy Gunn about his harping on the Moniak pick, but right now, the team’s last three first round picks – all high picks, including a 1/1/ – are not doing so well. It’s still early-ish, but you don’t look at any of them and think “wow, thank goodness we picked him!” If we don’t get one star and another regular out of that group, it will be a pretty significant setback for the organization, and, right now, I wouldn’t take the “over” on that bet.
It will be a setback, and it just goes to show how hard it is to get even decent players from the draft. It’s just not easy. And before people start ripping the Phillies for the picks, I’m sure other teams are in the same boat with the Phillies.
I did some research, look at the Marlins first round picks from 2012 (after picking Jose Fernandez in 2011) to now. That’s 6 years worth, and it’s pretty bad, culminating with Tyler Kolek in 2014 with the #2 pick.
Guru is that have anything to do with our drafting?
Well, people are ripping the Phillies for drafting, and I’m just letting people know that it’s not easy and other teams have problems too. And I backed up my argument with the Marlins.
i think people are ripping for drafting one player over another – which is inherent in any draft. i think most understand that MLB draft is a crapshoot that’s why it’s 40 rds.
Why don’t you do the mets smith and conforto
rocco…drafting in the top ten….you have to hit.
But from Savery at 19 in ’07 thru JPC at 16 in ’13..the Phillies were taking players at the 24th and later picks….not many chances of success there with all those HS athletic types. It is a gamble on ceiling vs floor in college players.
Angels went with Trout, only after Grichuk–what does that tell you….there was some luck there..
And you can add the Astro’s there as well with Moran Appel and Aiken. But to offset that they also did very well with Correa Springer and now Bregman with some luck in Altuve and Marwin Gonzalez both LA signees.
That said they might get the best record in the AL but falter in the playoffs because their starting pitching isn’t deep enough.
Ryan Howard, one for six, a double, run scored, 2Ks in his debut with the Albuquerque Isotopes.
It was a big game for the Topes: 22 runs on 24 hits.
Not a very nuclear start for Ryno.
Looks like you are just fission for a pun.
I was watching that game last night when Devers popped that HR and thought to myself wow that kid is just 20 y/o…what a moment for him.
Shame we have to wait until a player is 24 before he gets a shot. Must be organization policy. Miggy was 19 with the Marlins. Those are rare cases but must we have to wait until Sixto is 22 before he’s”ready”.
Btw, Rhys Hoskins (or as Tim pronounces it – Rice Hopkins) will be just fine. Let’s not compare him with TJ. It’s not even close.
The policy has loosened over the years. Maikel got his first taste at age 21 and was up for good at age 22. Nola, Galvis, Eflin was up at age 22.
Tell me who deserved to be up at age 20?
And let’s not anoint Devers yet. And Miggy was up pretty early, but pretty sure if we go through the Marlins transactions of guys coming early, there’s a lot more that bombed than succeeded. Matt Dominguez comes to mind right away. You can add Cameron Maybin if you want.
I was just saying how cool it was for him. I don’t think we’ve had a 20 y/o in quite some time who was ready. It would be nice though…
As a hitter? I think the earliest was Rollins and Rolen at age 21 in recent memory. As a pitcher, I can’t recall anybody. Although I do believe Hamels would have been up earlier if it wasn’t for his injuries in the minors.
Brett Myers and Gavin Floyd were both up at 21 I believe. Maybe 22 for Floyd, but I’m pretty sure 21 for Myers
I think Devers needs to be added in the 40-man this season, there’s a big hole in 3B and BOS is trying to win – this made the decision easier for Dave D.
Jim … About your posting the reverse standings … I’m sorry. You must have missed it, but John H (in last week’s open thread) decided we shouldn’t be tracking the Phillies’ pursuit of the 1-1 pick. This is not my opinion. It was a decree from John H.
Maybe you can create a poll asking others on this board if they agree or disagree (also a John H suggestion; not mine) ?
No it’s ok to post them once a wk. It’s the nighty thing since May 1st. hinkie you can post with 2 wks to go.
Oh … ok. Thanks for sharing that once-per-week rule, Tim. I must have missed that when I signed up for this site. Also, thanks for allowing me to post the Phillies reverse magic number beginning the third week of September. Are there any other stipulations I should follow ??? What about free agency ? Are we only allowed to discuss the 2017 FA class (even though the Phillies are almost certainly not going to be handing out any multi year contracts to anyone in that class) ? Is it too early to discuss the 2018 FA class (even though the Phillies will be all in on that group) ? If so, on which date are we allowed to start posting about that historic 2018 class ???
DMAR … It’s good to know we can all sleep well at night knowing the Internet police are patrolling this Phuture Phillies site … Sherif John H and deputies Tim and ciada.
Glad you left rocco out of it…….he the outlaw outlier.
You do you Hinkie I agree with you. I just read past comments that don’t interest me.
Romus … I see Rocco as a “live and let live” kinda guy. He’s cool by me.
Not you hinkie Jim posting as a reference to where the Phillies are in the draft standing once a wk . Jim does it ,in a little more expand view . Most of that is your option about FA in 2017 . You can post what you like ,but when it’s pinned on top of the page it’s Doubled up.
I explained myself another post look down .
I mean up
Haseley promoted to Lakewood….
Can’t wait. I just saw him with Williamsport last week and now, I get to see him again tomorrow lol
So now I’m confused. Glad he got the promotion but curious to how he and Moniak will coexist both being CFs and all.
Yeah I’m being snarky
DMAR…troll earlier, now snarky….what has gotten into you….you been hangin with rocco????
I wish Rocco has got to be a good time after a few Tully’s
But seriously they (they being whoever decides such things these days in the FO) get under my skin lately with these assignments.
It’s widely accepted that if you can play CF you can play RF or LF and its not going to mean you will all of a sudden suck at CF if you end up going back to the position. I’m growing weary Romus.
Phillies move their OFers all over the place.
Just look at LHV over the last year or so….Williams, Cozens Perkins, and Quinn last September, all played, all over at there.
The Phillies stated after the draft they see Haseley as a RF . They were going to keep him in CF until he advanced.
my wife asked me a baseball question that despite following the game for over 70 years i could not answer.. if a batter starts an at bat batting right handed, can he switch to bat left handed during the at bat. or vice versa. this is without a pitching change. i don’t think i have seen it done but i don’t know if there is a rule against it
Up to one strike I believe.
according to the internet the batter is free to change sides with the only restriction that he can’t do it while the pitcher is in the motion of delivering a pitch.
Sorry guys, I would trade Odubel in a second. To me, he is not a championship level player. In a key moment in a big game he’ll do something stupid. I feel the same way about Cesar. For some reason, neither player has the baseball instincts that I think are needed to be a winning player. I do however believe that Kingery might possess the necessary skill set. I had hoped that Quinn would be our future CF but his injury history leaves him as unreliable. I think Haseley could be pushed very quickly up the ladder. I expect he’ll start next year at Cwater (at Lakewood today) and move to Reading at mid year and to AAA before year end. He might start 2019 at AAA but come up in June to philly. Herrera could stick around for another year as we watch Williams and Altherr at the corners to see how they do.
Murray – we are aligned in most areas but we are really in a big minority when it comes to the Doobie and Cesar argument. As i said even before, Doobie and Cesar are not the best options in CF and 2B given their current timeline of 2019/2020 to contend. the fact that I don’t believe on the value of WAR made it easier for me to move on from them.
On CF – i think Altherr (assuming Quinn will not be healthy) can handle the offense/defense that Doobie provide while waiting for either Haseley or Moniak to come up in 2019/2020.
On 2B – i already jumped on the Kingery bandwagon on the draft he was drafted. and with Sal A.’s current success in finding solid MI prospects with good baseball instinct, another legit 2B will be coming up in the pipeline (i.e. Brito, Gamboa, Guzman, Gonzalez, etc).
Someone pointed out that the Doobie trade can make the Phils look foolish. To me Doobie (and Cesar) can have good MLB careers but the are “complimentary” players based on their skill set. Their skill set are something that any team can find in the Rule IV, Rule V, IFA and FA if they need it.
To me, exploit their current value and just get the best package that they can get. If the Phils needs a legit TOR, they have a good pool coming up, if not, just sign a legit ace in the FA.
I also think that JP has suddenly rebounded into the player we all wanted him to be. Galvis has been terrific this year and he does have very good baseball instincts. Spring training should be very interesting. I’m expecting Cesar to be traded in the offseason but I think Galvis will be back. The guy can literally play anywhere effectively and would be a great bench piece once JP earns the SS job. That could be in spring training but I suspect it will be in May.
Galvis i think still has 1 yr Arb left so the Phils should keep him for 2018. Assuming that the Phils will go to Kingery-JPC DP combo, Galvis can be a good bench piece because of his elite defense and ability to play multi-position. although there’s a high probability that Galvis will go to the highest bidder (not Phils) after his Arb years since a lot of team will like him as their starting SS.
Really? Is he an upgrade for many teams??
where did you read that Galvis in an upgrade for many teams?
The only way Galvis doesn’t reach FA after next season is if Crawford suffered a career threatening injury (God forbid). Freddy will easily pull in $8-10M per annum from some team as a free agent. The idea of him becoming a super U guy has become irrelevant.
Why rush trading Herrera he’s 25 he maybe the opNL CF in 2 yrs . No Gm will give you a proven Tor for a CF and 2nd baseman .
Um Tim did you not see what the White Sox got for Adam Eaton
CWS found a good trade target in WAS (and BOS with Sale trade) – a) contending team; b) win now mode; and c) some high end prospects in the farm. it’s like a perfect storm for CWS to strike.
i know most sentiments here is to get a haul (like Adam Eaton once) – which i warned against procrastination trap. i’m not saying that a similar Adam Eaton will never happen again – but Klentak should find the perfect partner to make it happen – and that’s a small window of opportunity.
I agree!Trade Herrera, Hernandez andVV while one can get some value for them.Not to be greedy , but add more J2 money.
I want VV as my closer. I think that’s the best role for him.
You can never have too much pitching, but Aaron Nola seems to be developing into a TOR starter, so maybe we don’t need to trade our top player(s) to get another one.
You can’t have too much pitching which is exactly why you must trade the valuable players like Herrera and Cesar for another TOR starter. Nola may be one but now is NOT the time to presume anything.
The only players that should be in the Phillies next team ,that are on this team. Nola, Eickoff, Herrera, Altherr. The rest will be traded or have not earn it yet.
Who comes up light in this off-season blockbuster?::
to the Marlins:
Johnny Cueto (no opt out)
P – Adonis Medina
to the Giants:
P Dan Straily
3B Brian Anderson (Mia.)
to the Phils:
The only hint on this is that it helps Miami and SF with salary — Miami because it’s Miami and SF to allow them to be active in free agency.
Your giving up Medina , Franco, EICKHOFF, Herrera, Mickey Mo for Yelich who I think Herrera better then. Prado who is going to be 35 coming off major knee surgery ..Ziegler who will be 38 next yr and is having a horrible yr. Jeff Samardzija who will be 33 and might be done. Noway
Tim. Appreciate the effort, laying something out there. It’s creative. But it a bad deal for the Phils as many of the pre ions posts have pointed out. I love Yellich and could warm to a Stanton contract but this construction doesn’t work for me.
I’d reall like to see them target a youngish TOR like Gerritt Cole or one of that ilk.
It wasnt my trade and I’m not agreeing with at all.
Wow, that’s a terrible trade for the Phillies.
Wow, that’s a terrible trade for the Phillies X2
Yelich is basically the target here. And I think that’s too much to give up plus taking up 3 players that needs 25-man spot.
I agree that Yelich is the target but I wouldn’t trade those 5 players straight up for Yelich.
As for the rest of it, Prado and Zeigler are dead weight at this point and Samardjiza is an $18M dollar per year hole in a rotation for 3 more years with bad numbers in a pitcher’s park. He would be even worse at CBP.
so we both agree that it’s a bad deal. I’m actually for a Yelich trade and give up some good players and prospects but no dead weight is included.
if the phils will acquire dead weight especially the ones that need a roster spots, the phils should be getting some good players and prospects and not giving out.
Odubel’s is putting up the same numbers a Yelich is…
A few points, I think only on a Philly board is Herrera seen as equivalent to Yelich. And even here, there is a lot of frustration with Doobie. So if there is a thought that he would be a hot trade item, my response is “To who? For what?” And if there is some notion that Herrera’s antics have gone unnoticed elsewhere, as someone in the D.C. media market, my response is “You’re kidding yourself!”
Apart for the love expressed here for Eickhoff and perhaps Franco, these are guys trending downward and are really small chips in the bigger scheme. I would say a front office not giving active thought to a Franco alternative at 3B is derelict.
Further, a team that has Herrera, Eickhoff and Franco as pillars is a team on track to continue as a losing baseball team, in a town growing to accept losing.
I am fine with Moniak and Medina but it seems clear now that Haseley is the guy the Phils are prioritizing and if Moniak prevents Haseley’s movement forward in CF, his value is impacted.
As for the ‘dead weight’, I acknowledge that Ziegler fits that category and shedding salary by Miami makes this deal. But his contract expires in ’18 and he is the equivalent of the Joaquin Benoit’s of this world on sale where the Phils like to shop each off-season.
I reject the idea that Prado is dead weight. He was prominently listed among trade candidates this year before coming down with an injury before the deadline. I see him, like a Howie Kendrick, as a versatile, useful veteran presence who plays the game the right way. If the Phils went all in on Manny Machado after ’18, Prado still has value as an infield upgrade infinitely better than what the Phils have currently.
Samardjiza is the kind of starter the Phils would love to see someone in their system become — a reliable, injury-free arm who can keep the team in games and log a lot of innings. He’s what we might hope Eickhoff would become if he weren’t trending in another direction.
Judging from comments here, following the Phils is an amnesia-inducing experience. A critic unhappy with Samardjiza’s contract must have forgotten the recent acquisition of Hellickson and Buchholz. In a down market for starting pitching this off-season, there is not much help out there for a rotation, like the Phils, in desperate need.
Finally, the Phils to me have the look of a team in need of adult leadership. It’s not a tweak here, a goosing there that is going to right this ship. It’s going to take an aggressive move or two to help re-shape this culture and make Philly a realistic destination for free agents in ’18 and thereafter.
Funny point with Samardjiza is that he is basically Hellickson. They have roughly the same performance.
Samardjiza is due $18m per season for another 3 years plus some deferred bonus money. If you were not good with the acquisition and retention of Hellboy then you shouldn’t be happy with Samardjiza as his replacement. Difference now is that the Phillies do not have a need for an expensive innings eater like they did the last couple of seasons. They already have cheap versions of him with guys like Eickhoff.
Prado is due almost $30m for the next 2 seasons and you want to pay that for a back-up infielder who’s also not part of the Phillies long-term future. He’s going to be a 34 year old infielder in 2018…
As for Odubel vs. Yelich I think you need to take a closer look at the numbers because they are very similar…
Yelich will be 26 and has a career OPS of .798 and an basic WAR of 2.5
Odubel will be 25 and has a career OPS of .780 and an basic WAR of 2.6.
My hope is that the teams leadership will focus their resources on positions of need, not make moves that will retain the status quo…
the weird part about Shark is that in 155 innings this year, he’s got 160k’s vs 23 walks, but he STILL stinks. he’s just a guy who always manages to give up runs.
Yea, he’s a strange case in that he has swing and miss stuff and doesn’t walk guys but he gives up big innings.
I actually think he’d be better off if he walked a few more guys in exchange for not throwing so many pitches down the middle because he wants to “challenge” them.
He pitches with a football mentality at times..
agree with Shark and Prado. But 30 out of 30 GMs will choose Yelich over Herrera anytime any day. Statistically they are probably the same. But statistics is only half the equation. Baseball is a sport where a lot of factors impacting the game cannot be mathematically measured.
Yelich and Doobie are not the same player.
Straight up I would probably take Yelich for Doobie based on those other factors but the difference isn’t as much as many seem to think. It’s certainly not enough to take on $100 Million worth of contracts and give up 4 other players..
3up – below is your post. so why do you say that yelich and doobie are the same player if you will take yelich over doobie? you didn’t mention the $100M and 4 other players in your post below.
“As for Odubel vs. Yelich I think you need to take a closer look at the numbers because they are very similar…
Yelich will be 26 and has a career OPS of .798 and an basic WAR of 2.5
Odubel will be 25 and has a career OPS of .780 and an basic WAR of 2.6.
I’m sure there are metrics where Hellickson and Samardjiza are comparable. But in an important area, the Shark leaves Hell Boy in the dust. While Hellickson has never logged 200 innings in a season, Samardjiza is one of an elite group (with Scherzer, Bumgarner, Quintana, Lester and Hamels) who have logged 200 innings over the past 4 seasons. While Samardjiza is on pace to log 200 innings again this year, Bumgarner and Hamels will fall from this group by the end of this year.
For a team with a bullpen like the Phils, this ability to log innings is no small thing. For the person claiming that Samardiza stinks (a truly absurd claim), Samardjiza is a really reliable #3 and probably a #2 on the Phils were he here. He might be a #4 in SF where they have stocked up on starting pitching but the suggestion that he is poor or fading is, I’ll repeat, absurd.
“Prado is due almost $30m for the next 2 seasons and you want to pay that for a back-up infielder who’s also not part of the Phillies long term future.”
You got that wrong, too. Prado is a lifetime .291 hitter with a career .762 OPS. He out-performed those stats as recently as last year. He far surpasses Franco. He’s clearly a starting third baseman next season if here and if the Phils got Machado, then Prado would have a market somewhere. If he were a back-up for a year, that wouldn’t be a terrible outcome for the skills and experience he brings.
KK, Statistically, they are basically the same player but given the choice of the 2, I would take Yelich because I’m not a fan of Odubel’s antics and mental lapses. Not sure why that causes a problem for you. If you are trying to take my comments literally, then obviously they are not exactly the same player. If you goal is to “catch” me in a contradiction, then have at it..
But you are missing the point in that my comments are in regards to him being the centerpiece of the trade. I don’t see why I would trade one for the other when it includes taking on a bunch of other crap as the price.
Martin Prado…age 34 season in 2018. Knee issues and surgery recently
Even when Prado was on the field this year with the Marlins….., he wasn’t playing particularly well. Batting only .250/.279/.357, he was a shell of the player the Marlins thought they were signing. and that contract , like you say, will need to be absorbed and can he come back at that age with that knee issue? He only ,anaged 34 games this year at third.
It is another gamble on a basically a trade chip venue player..
Prado still has a better WAR this year than Franco and there’s nothing to like about a healthy Franco’s numbers. For the Phils, you need to upgrade where you can.
Congrats to Rhys Hoskins on his first big league homer.
……..and his second!
A few things . . .
Herrera . . . You want to trade someone who has been one of the best Phillies in Philly history in his first 3 years? Yeah, that sounds about right. Remember he was a rule 5 pick, normally he would have had years to mature at the MiLB level however he didn’t have that chance. He has to mature at the MLB level, in front of everybody as opposed to in front of a much smaller population.
Hernandez . . . Just stop it already. He’s proven himself to be one of the best 2B in baseball and its shown in the way the Phillies played without him and they way they have played since he’s come back. It’s not like Kingery’s ceiling is THAT much higher than what Hernandez is doing now, it just isn’t.
Franco . . . why is it that he doesn’t get the blow back that others get? He’s playing far worse than TJ, Rupp, and a bunch of others. We want to trade the above 2, yet Franco gets a pass when he hasn’t played well since the 1st half of 2015 and to be honest it was only one month of solid play in 2015. Where is the vitriol against him? I’m think it’s bc there’s no one to call up to replace him.
Also someone commented about Moniak struggling bc of how minor league life is . . . I’d agree with this with guys who didn’t get a 5m plus pay day . . . the minor leagues is much easier on guys who have the means to be comfortable while playing at that level which he certainly does.
On Franco, it’s a fair point – he’s been dreadful.
The reason he gets a bit of a pass is that he doesn’t do obviously bone-headed things like Odubel and, in past years, Cesar. The negative value that fans place on individual bone-headed plays is like 20-30 more times than the actual adverse effect of those plays. I think we are just going to have to hope that, over time, Odubel stops doing as many dumb things. It’s funny because I don’t remember him being this dopey last year or the year before. I tend to think he will get those things under control because he seems to be a good guy and he’s very passionate about the game.
Guys like Hoskins and Kingery have passion as well. And a clue about what they’re doing on the field. Virtually everything Odubel does is reactionary (a lot like us fans). His baseball acumen is minimal. His instincts aren’t grounded in a knowledge of the game. That’s hard to teach if not impossible.
No offense, but I think that’s a bunch of nonsense. It’s like you channeled your inner Howard Eskin and Angelo Cataldi.
None taken, Catch LOL!
I don’t think Franco has gotten a pass. Most everyone posting here has the Phillies either trading for Machado to replace him or they are trying to move Kingery, Galvis, or Hernandez to 3b. He mainly doesn’t get mentioned because they have no viable replacement waiting in the wings to take his spot.
Cesar gets mentioned because he’s seen as a valuable trade piece and they have Kingery waiting in the wings. Odubel just rubs many people the wrong way with his antics.
For the record, I am not on the trade Odubel train because they don’t have a better option right now but I’m fine with them looking to move Hernandez if they can get a decent return because I do think that Kingery can provide the same level of performance as a baseline while also having a higher ceiling..
I would not move Cesar or Kingery or Crawford to 3b. Their natural position is right where they are. The future 3b IMO isn’t in the fold yet. Moustakas should be an off season target. I would try to sell Franco as a 3b/1b option to interested teams looking for a bottom of the lineup bat with pop and little else.
I’m with you on that one. None of those 3 players carry enough bat for 3b and I also think their next third baseman comes from outside..
Agree with what you said about Franco and Cesar. On Doobie he’s a keeper and in the same time he holds the most trade value. Given Doobie’s age, remaining projection and team friendly contract, the Phils have a very good leverage to acquire a really good value in return whether it’s a collection of prospects or another MLB player.
The Phils are not winning right now so Altherr and Quinn or William can play a decent 2-way CF for the next couple of years. The Phils drafted 2 CF in Rd 1 of the last 2 Rule IV draft – one these CFs will be the future CF of the next contending team. This is my rationale why the Phils should explore a trade and exploit Doobie’s high trade value.
I’m not totally opposed to moving Doobie if the return is good enough. With where they are right now, they really have no untradeable players if the price is right.
“Given Doobie’s age, remaining projection and team friendly contract, the Phils have a very good leverage to acquire a really good value in return whether it’s a collection of prospects or another MLB player.”
It’s likely the Phils see it the way you do. Unfortunately, it’s 100 % wrong. On a multitude of lists of trade targets identified by mlbtr and others this July, I never saw Doobie’s name once. I’ve seen comments on Philly boards that Texas wants him back but I haven’t seen that anywhere else. Rookie’s get a pass for rookie mistakes. But hey ….
Stated a month ago that if Franco had an option he should have been sent down to AAA to figure things out. He’s really not an asset at this point so it’s hard to talk about him as a center piece of a trade.
Doobies propensity for mind cramps is not why you trade you him. You trade him for nothing less than a Nola or better type starter. You’re scouts have to figure out who that guy is. You trade him because you have Altherr today and Haseley within 2 years. You have the production replaced with improvements provided by Hoskins and JP Crawford who for some reason you wanted to bash based on his bad start.
Cehe you trade because you need another pitcher and you don’t get quality unless you trade quality and the move will be backed by your faith in Kingery. Not sure how you can say his ceiling is not higher when he is OPSing 900+ in AAA and had 24 HRS on the season so far. And I was saying the same 9 months ago (I did not want to trade CeHe) but the page has turned. Kingery is going to be at least Cehe and probably much better.
agree about Franco’s demotion. since the Phils are not winning, it should have been done back ina May/June and maybe play Blanco (should be Valentin if not injured) and see if Blanco generated enough trade value before the trade deadline.
Despite of 2 good years from Cesar, his ceiling and profile remained the same. Kingery floor is Cesar’s ceiling if everything remained the same. Kingery’s speed and defense alone provides a good replacement value for Cesar so the Phils are not creating a big hole in their 2B. $$ (to sign FA) and good depth in INF prospects also lowers the risks of negative effect of trading Cesar.
Cesar is till under team control for 2 more years. Once he hits FA, the leverage will be gone and the Phils may not recoup any good value from him.
KuKo…..I may be wrong on this….but I am thinking Klentak will begin to evaluate his philosophy about not sending guys down who have options. And in this case, Franco.
I think his rationale was something along the lines of a ‘confidence issue’ and not wanting to erode it anymore from the players perspective
When other GMs started doing it these last few years…Ozuna, Wong, Piscotty and Grichuk ….and seeing the benefits from the players on their return to the majors, he may want to begin to modify his philosophy.
And don’t forget Schwarber the darling of last seasons post season…
@romus – i agree with you. We don’t know Klentak, but he has a look of a methodical but passive style of management – maybe this is what learned from McPhails, another methodical person. I do believe that a persons “profile” has something to do with his decisions. Unless there’s a strong push from Middleton go get the tires going – McKlentak will be the same deliberate try to be smart FO that we are seeing right now.
This approach might probably work in smaller markets and less demanding sports town – but not in Philly. Middleton is the key to everything. Middleton needs to set the tone from the top – and say “i don’t tolerate mediocrity across all levels. being in the big leagues is a privilege and not an entitlement. either you deserve it or you go down”.
Trouble how do you send an entire bullpen down for not preforming.
No, he is under team control for another 3 years.
This will all play out over time so I’m not to worried about it.
If the Phillies really want to improve his market value, they should sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal and buy out a year or two of his FA years. Teams love trading for a younger player they can control for long periods of time. That type of contract is what made Adam Eaton so valuable.
Cesar’s not a star (at least right now he’s not), but he’s a very good and extremely underrated player. It wouldn’t surprise me if a team like the Yankees had interest in him.
Just not many teams are in need of 2nd basemen.
Though Cesar is near the top in offensive metrics for sure.
For example, the Yankees will have to decide between Torres, Castro, Solak and then even possibly Wade going forward.
@catch – extending Cesar is a good strategy. although this also reinforce my argument about moving on from Cesar. IMO, GMs and the FO saw what everybody saw in Cesar – young, improving, metrics and all of this good stuff but unfortunately some of the bad stuff as well. To date, the FO is not even talking about Cesar’s extension, and also, Cesar has been floated around in trades but no clear teams are really tied up to him. 2 LA teams are in dire need of a 2B last season but there’s not a lot of smoke there.
I think we’ve already seeing the best of Cesar given his lack of game changing abilities there’s nothing left to see. This type of a profile can make GM think – that’s a type player that we can develop in our farm, or like that’s a player we can sign in FA.
I don’t think we ever really know what the FO is doing in terms of seeking extensions. They usually come out of the blue, as Odubel’s contract did last year. But that’s the norm.
“Doobies propensity for mind cramps is not why you trade you him. You trade him for nothing less than a Nola or better type starter.”
Classic, DMAR. A breathtaking comment.
for now, DMAR is the one giving me the brain cramps.
Well said: You have to trade quality to get quality. And Kingery has the higher ceiling.
I’m on board for trading Hernandez for a quality pitcher.
I think we match up best with the Pirates for Cesar. They will be looking to dump Josh Harrison’s salary and have some depth of arms they could deal us.
The Rays would be another strong possibility. 2B has been a big mess for them and they always have arms to deal.
Harrison looks to be one of Neal Huntingdon’s exit pieces with his upcoming options He is in his last year next season (2018) with club options for ’19 and ’20. And though it is only $6M AAV, it does go up to $10M the next two years. They may want to go in another direction. So they may want to move on a player like Cesar.
Dodgers first round pick from last year is still a minimum of 3 years away and Angels definitely would have an interest.
Rays however, may move Adames over to 2nd , there if they feel Hechavvaria is their shortstop long-term, down the road.
I would have to give Harrison some thought. Moustakas would still be my plan A as a free agent who wouldn’t cost prospects.
watch out for DET. They’re trying to unload Verlander to HOU and this will start a chain of moves across the league which will include Kinsler. Cesar will be appealing to DET for all the marbles that the Cesar-supporter are talking about. Burrows and/or Funkhouser is my target in a trade with DET. Norris is fine, if DET want to unload a roster spot to accommodate Cesar.
KuKo……untouchables I assume are Fullmer, Manning and Faedo……Burrows, Soto and Funkhouser, like you said, would be pitchers I think they will like to talk trade with.
And can Cesar bring back Norris straight up? Not sure about that.
Norris seems to be a head case I don’t want him. If you could get Burrows or Funkhouser then heck yeah but I don’t think they will want to part with any of their young starters.
You’d have to sweeten that deal maybe take back one of they’re bad contracts.
DMAR – i think DET will let go one of Burrows and Funk if the think that Cesar what the Cesar-supporters here are saying.
Agree with Romus that Fullmer, Faedo and Manning are untoucheables. I like Joe Jimenez but DET will do anything to keep him as he will be added in the 40-man this offseason. So one of Burrows and Funk can be made available for a trade.
DET has 2 potential contracts to dump – Sanchez and Zimmerman. But that means they also need to give up more talent.
KuKo…..you would want to trade Cesar for a reliever like Jimenez?
I would think a prospect pitcher , who is a starter, is a good return value for Cesar
@romus – straight up? No. My preference will be Burrows or Funk. I like Jimenez because he will be the best pen arm right now and can be the future closer but he doesn’t in my timeline concept. Jimenez + another probably although part of me will be willing to do that so that I can already start my Kingery-JPC DP combo next year.
KuKo…..when it comes to Detroit and a potential trade partner…..have to see what prospects they will get back from Houston in a possible Verlander deal.
Houston has no legit middle infield prospects that I can see that could benefitDet soon, ……so assume it will be either Fisher or Tucker as one of the OFers and some combo of prospect pitchers.
i don’t HOU paying that much in case of players/prospects eventhough DET is willing to pay significant portion on the contract. This is probably the reason why the trade has not been completed yet.
The most i can see HOU is giving up is Daz Cameron.
And the Phllies still lose ,can’t walk 2 batters an ing if your a reliever. Man Phillies don’t have relivers if the starter doesn’t go 7 ings the Phillies are done.
Ramos, Therrien and Pinto are 24, 24 and 23. I the trio will get better particularly Ramos and Pinto because both have 2 plus pitch. I think the struggle is due to pitch sequence and come confidence which should be addressed by gaining valuable experience.
Location, location, location.
I am just wondering I only saw Therrien once, not impress with his stuff. What did you see romus. maybe it was a off night when I saw him. I know he pitch one inning and gave up no runs. but from naked eye didn’t look like his slider. which I thought was his best pitch was that great.
@roccom – JDT stuff is decent – ave FB but SL can be a good out pitch. Noticed that I didn’t mention JDT as the one with plus pitch. Some said that Rios has the better stuff but JDT is the better overall pitcher. We’ll wait and see but I don’t see JDT as a high leverage pen arm but he has a profile to be better than Jeanmar Gomez – ok, but expandable.
The current Phillies bullpen presents a major dilemma for Mackanin. Last night in the top of the 6th, in a 2-2 game, the Phillies have two on and two outs and he decides to pinch hit Kim for Eickhoff to try to take the lead. Eickhoff could probably have pitched the sixth, based on his pitch count. Kim delivers an infield hit and so does Hernandez, so they score a run. 3-2 Phillies. Wow, the move paid off! However, Pinto comes in to pitch, walks the first hitter and ends up giving up 4 runs in the 6th and a home run in the 7th. So the move didn’t pay off and,in the end, probably cost them the game. But, it is hard to blame Mackanin for stuff like this.
Despite his results over the weekend, this guy exudes confidence. Loved the “one man celebration” vs the traditional silent treatment last night in the dugout. We need a beast at the plate. Rhys the beast!
Doobie continues to rake at the plate. Everywhere else on the field he might as well be using a rake. Throws to wrong base on sac fly. I’m losing track myself of all his brain cramps.
I think we presently are in volume II of the ongoing saga!
Teams are seeing the same brain cramps that we are seeing. Doobie need to play with an established latin MLB hitter that he will look up to and keep him under wraps – someone like Adrian Beltre. Doobie has the antics that can be divisive in the locker room.
If there’s a trade this off season I think one guy whose trade value is up right now but will be exposed over time is Nick Williams. If the right deal comes along, I’d trade him in a heart beat. He’s a good athlete, but I don’t believe, long term, he’s going to be anything special.
My untouchable list at the moment is really small maybe 3 players…I’m open for business.
Yeah, they don’t have a big “untouchable list.”
I think Sixto may be an untouchable, but after that it’s hard to identify any other guy you wouldn’t move almost at all costs.
Guys who I would be extremely hesitant to trade is a bigger list and includes Nola, Crawford, Hoskins, Kingery and maybe Haseley.
Then you have a bigger list of guys who you wouldn’t trade unless someone makes you an offer you can’t refuse and this includes Cesar, Odubel, Altherr, Kilome, and maybe one or two other L.A. arms (Medina? Dominguez?).
Other than that, the Phillies should be open for trading business.
You could include Randolph on that third list (don’t trade unless you’re overwhelmed) but notice how Moniak isn’t on any of these lists, nor should he be. It’s so disappointing.
if it is for a top tier MLB player like Trout, Machado and a legit Top SP – everybody is expendable. If not, the Phils should try to keep Nola, Sixto and Kingery. I’ve followed JPC and stick with him so I would love to see him succeed in red pin stripes.
I still have Doobie as the best trade chip (Nola is actually best, but he’s untoucheable for now). I agree with @catch that Nick Williams has the most helium based on risk/rewards.
Stanton has cleared waivers. Jeff Passan(Yahoo Sports) says 4 teams may be interested and apparently the line has been cast by the Marlins.
Why would new owners want to move Stanton? I would offer Kingery or cesar one of those two. obbie. Crawford or Williams. and two pitchers. maybe a eichoff and minor league arm like viza or romero. Plus dinner at romus house for a year
That’s too much.
MIA doesn’t have the leverage on Stanton especially Stanton can opt out in like 2 years and has injury history and his preference to move to California at some point in time. The package you offered should bring Yelich with Stanton and I can see teams rather absorb the contract that give up that much in terms of players/prospects.
MIA has a weak farm. That’s another leverage Klentak can exploit. Give depth (quantity) rather than quality. MIA also belongs in the bottom 5 as far as TV ratings is concerned. So the new ownership will prefer to work around a tighter budget – another leverage on Klentak’s favor since the Phils have a lot of cost controlled MLB ready players.
the BOS to LAD salary dump is a good case study to look at if Klentak wants to do his due diligence on taking big $$ commitment. LAD gave out some dead weight and a couple of scrubs for Adrian Gonzalez and some other contracts.
For Stanton would you offer Hoskins, Nick Williams and Medina?
No way…Stanton’s contract is too precarious. If they want me to absorb it for some B level bones then yeah but not for any of my A level bones.
not to mention the guy is always hurt in his 20’s what do you think he is going to be like in his 30’s.
joel I will drive the offer to fla. yes yes yes
if stanton’s season had started on july 17th, he’d still have more homers than anyPhillie this season.
Based on the current timeline, I will not give up that much for Stanton unless there’s a concession about the $$ and opt out. Stanton might end up opting out by the time the Phils is ready to contend. Rather than absorbing $295M in cash and give out some talent, i would prefer to use the $295M and another $$ to go after Harper.
Yup yup yup….I’m passing on Machado and going hard after Harper and if I miss on him I’ll go hard after Trout in 2020. Hell I might land them both.
The Phils should only absorb Stanton and his $295M contract for 2 reasons: a) it will include Yelich; or b) complete salary dump deal – which means it’s Stanton for some B-level, PTBNL, stiffs or scrubs.
Not even looking at the post-2018 FA, the Phil can use portion of that $295M to sign Darvish and Lynn this offseason that will already solidify their rotation and have some to get a solid pen arm.
Just a note – Top 2 highest SP contracts in the MLB:
1) Kershaw – $215M/7yrs
2) Scherzer – $210M/7yrs
I rather have one of these 2 TOR arms and I still have $80-85M to spare.
I’m in on a Stanton deal ONLY if our top non-OF prospects are off the table. This would largely be a salary dump provided Yelich (we suppose) is included. Should Stanton opt out after ’20 (and I wouldn’t expect him to waive that for any non-California club) then the return is that much less to the Marlins. Then of course it immediately becomes Trout season!
I hope those who are asking the Phillies to trade Herrera arent the same people complaining that the rebuild is taking too long…
Unless we receive come kind of ridiculous offer, any good baseball player under 27 should be kept. Hope to be competitive in 2019/2020
Any trade/signing for Cueto or Verlander doesnt make much sense either. Phillies should use their depth in the minor leagues to make a trade for a young #1 or #2 starting pitcher.
what you said has been the sentiment my majority. A young TOR is nice, but it will probably cost a lot the top prospects if the Phils decided to pay with prospects. that’s why Doobie and Cesar has been tossed around to minimize depleting the farm.
the best way to “underpay” for a potential TOR is to get them while there are still in low minors when their risks out weights their potential. otherwise, FA is the best avenue to get a legit arm.
Meh I don’t totally agree when I look at both the Cliff trade and the Halladay trade. We gave up very little in those deals.
Conversely Toronto turned around and made one of the strangest moves I ever saw in acquiring Dickey for Thor/D’Arnaud (the other two players coming back in that deal were irrelevant)
DMAR…that was under the old Tor GM , JP something or else
DMAR – you should disagree because there’s no parallel there. Ahoy and I are talking about young #1 and #2 – which mean there are cost controlled TORs.
Doc and Lee story are an entirely different scenario.
The Mets sold high (the tactic i’ve been advocating in this site) on Dickey who just had a CY Award winning year and found a sucker in TOR. Thor was just finished his A assignment (low minors – does this ring a bell again?) when he was traded.
I could see Cesar being a part of a package but I’m not sure if I’d be so quick to trade Odubel. He is by far the best outfielder we’ve got. Probably the best batter as well. Sure, no one wants to trade the farm but we are in MUCH better shape than 3 or 4 years ago. You have to give to get and I would be alright with paying top prospects for another arm.
I think OH’s contract was so team friendly and trade friendly that it was designed for the intention of him not being counted upon, from the teams’ perspective, as a future core piece. It is shorter by a year and smaller (15% ave AAV) than Yelich’s, and the big money, if you want to call it that, does not kick in until 2020 and after…..PLUS….the Phillies plugged into it two years of ‘club options’, not ‘mutual or player options’.
So they will have every opportunity to move him because of these attractive contract features…also he is a plus overall player….well except on the base paths.
His value is sky high if he continues to hit and field like he has done these past 2 and 3/4 years.
Who are these young TOR starters to which you refer? Luis Martinez? Carlos Martinez? Kyle Freeland? Why would any GM who likes working in baseball trade young promising pitchers getting it done in the show trade for guys toiling in Class A ball for the Phils? And you thought the Verlander trade suggestion made no sense?
Who are these young TOR starters to which you refer? Luis Severino? Carlos Martinez? Kyle Freeland? Why would any GM who likes working in baseball trade young promising pitchers getting it done in the show trade for guys toiling in Class A ball for the Phils? And you thought the Verlander trade suggestion made no sense?
A arbitration controlled TOR pitcher is the most valuable commodity in baseball. I agree that no team is trading away those players. Shelby Miller is likely one in recent years.
Getting ‘another’ Nola is nearly impossible. Phillies would not accept a 2B only leadoff guy for Nola.
I think Hernandez is the Phillies best trade chip due to his value and internal options, but he will get back a high risk type TOR guy, maybe a VV type at best. IMHO I think FO should try it.
The best course of action would probably just be to wait until the phillies have close to a complete lineup and go into free agency then
Verlander is 34 years old. He has at most two more years of being an ace pitcher. And who says the prospects we give up are Single A products? The farm system is good. I’d happily package Cesar/JP ect for a young ace, although it doesn’t have to be quite that dramatic. Even a #2 guy with Nola might get the job done.
Again, unless you’re naming the guy you have in mind. Severino? Fulmer? Matz? This board splits hairs over the meaning of ‘ace’ but put it together with ‘young’ and you’re looking for hen’s teeth. You’re talking about trading away All Star talent and the Phils’ candidate, Pat Neshek, has already left town. I mentioned Verlander, Samarjiza, because waiving a Verlander no-trade, they are realistic. I don’t think your ‘trade for a young ace’ is. Not even close.
Three WSox pitching prospects:
2. Cease or Dunning
Williams and Hahn may, or not, do that trade for OH.
I don’t know…DMAR would know better.
The White Sox are a team that could use an upgrade in CF, without any question. They also are filled to the brim with young pitching talent, prospects as you pointed out. Kopech in AA ball is the furthest along. Could be untouchable in a year.
It reinforces the point that proven MLB TOR starters are hard to find and shake loose off the tree. I haven’t seen Kopech pitch but based on reputation, I’d do a straight up deal in the off-season but many here wouldn’t. There’s a good chance the CWS wouldn’t either. And, because it would be a bold move, Klentak probably wouldn’t. That’s a lot of headwind against such a move.
That is the issue….OH has the metrics to equal the return value of those prospects….but WSox may not want to move them.
Three of them they just acquired recently.
Hard to say what Hahn would do. If I had to guess he would try to pawn names like Rodon, Giolito, Bummer, Dunning, Fulmer, Cease on us I would insist on either Reynaldo or Kopech straight up.
I think he would do one of those deals…
But let’s say he won’t he could tempt me with a package of Hanson, Cease and Dunning 🙂
I dont have a specific pitcher in mind. And I understand many teams, especially ones in playoff contention are not willing to trade these guys away. Maybe I should use the term TOR pitcher because that is more accurate. A team that is looking to retool or rebuild may be looking to trade for prospects. I’d love for the Phillies to look into that possibility for a young (under 30) starter.
Also I apologize if it seemed like I was picking on you with the Verlander comment, not my intention. I don’t see any reason the Phillies should go after any player in that age range unless they intend on flipping him later.
Basically I want to see us take a step forward by using our strong farm system and payroll as means to make a playoff team, and soon.
We’re good. I agree that payroll is a tool for the Phils to use. The Phils, I’m convinced need some veteran leadership. The bullpen will develop better when not over-used. I’m not crazy about a 5 year deal for 30 + yo starters. Verlander I think can perform for the 2 years left on his deal. He’ll go to a contender if he can.
Alex Cobb is an < 30 free agent available this winter. But he's more of a middle-of-the-rotation guy. Tampa Bay is where you look for quality starters whom they will move before they have to really pay them..
Verlander made no sense because he has a no trade clause fair enough?
As far as TOR’s for Cesar I don’t think I ever said he would bring you that. I did give you a couple of names out of the Pirates org that might blossom into that.
But where I do think you can land a TOR type pitcher is with Odubel and it will be a special situation with a team that feels pretty good about their current pitching depth.
And honestly it’s not really for me to know it’s for our scouts who get paid to know this stuff to flush out who those guys are within someone else’s system. See Theo’s trade for Jake Arrieta and Strop.
So the thinking on the Jays deal is a flip scenario with Donaldson. Definitely agree at his age he’s not part of the future but I’ll take a stab at him for a year and bet on a big bounce back year from him to get me something decent at the 2018 deadline.
And since his Arb number will probably be pretty big you should get something back from the Jays. I mean you are giving them a GG SS and 2 borderline MLB players with many years control.
It’s hard to say what you can get for Freddy. I compared him to the Andrelton Simmons of a few seasons ago but Freddy has only 1 year to go before FA.
that will be an unconventional strategy for a rebuilding team who normally invests on 1-year rental for flipping with minimal value in terms of prospects or cost controlled MLB ready players. Also, might be too early to give up on Pivetta. If Pivetta developed a consistent command of his pitches, he can be better than Eickhoff stuff wise and he can be a solid back of the pen arm as fall back – there’s some upside there. Better give up on Jake Thompson or Ben Lively than Pivetta.
If TOR will officially put JD in the trade market – contending teams will overpay just to get that 2-year production from JD. That’s an area (overpaying) where the Phils doesn’t want to be at this stage of the rebuild.
The Jays want to contend next season. They will not trade Donaldson unless they get blown away with an offer. And when I mean blown away, I’m talking about Sixto Sanchez. Donaldson is not going anywhere in the offseason.
I guess you guys are not ready for my next level risk taking. JD has a shot to have an MVP type season the year before his FA year. I’ll gamble on that and the type of player it will return to me.
No Guru sorry Mark Shapiro might try to take one more run but I say no based on where the Red Sox and Yankees are right now. He has some decent youth on the way so I say he moves this off season to position himself for 2 years from now.
i rather gamble in signing Otani, Darvish and Lynn this offseason rolling high $$ my friend!!
I love those names KuKo. I hope Otani wants to come hear. I hope Darvish wants to come here…Lynn Meh ok.
When it comes to FA’s you gotta be realistic.
With Otani we’re are restricted to how much money we can give him and even if we have the most money to spend is that incrementally more than a place he would prefer to be has?
Remember former top 100 prospect Zach Lee of the Dodgers? He’s almost 26 and he got cut by the Padres. Man, he fell fast.
Yep happens. Especially when pitchers incur a medical issue
dodgers got chris taylor for him last season, who has suddenly gone from light hitting utility infielder to a .927 ops outfielder for the best team in baseball.
Stanton in a NY minute , if he keeps his Hr rate up many more teams could get involved . Which would drive up his price. He even has a buy out. Altherr , Tromp,V,V.
This is like watching little league with the exception that little league is better.
Mac he left Lieter to long the kid hasn’t hit 80 pitches in a while.Crazy SD really isn’t that good , the next wave of Prospects Pitching wise are all in high A. I mean you have Elshmann ,Anderson, Kilome next .
Alfaro’s 114 mph laser over CF wall was the hardest hit hr by a Phillie this season. That and Rhys’ 3rd in 2 games make me jump and shout – “Just play Hoskins at 1b from here on (PLEASE) and let Alfaro catch the majority of games left this season.
They were suggesting on the Radio this morning that Pete was poking fun at his GM with stoic expressions of exit velocities and launch angles..
John Middleton please cut bait with all of these clowns and start over. Starting with MacKlentak then Johnny A sorry bud you’re out. Pete gone, Ray Burris pack your things
McClure what are you still doing here? And hey you chilli rings from google get the you know what out of here.
i don’t like McClure. I hope the Phils can Ray Searage out of PIT especially if the Bucs will go into a 2-3 reload phase while the Phils is on the way up.
I was listening to 97.5thePhanatic and the couples of host (not Rob and Harry) is advocating of acquiring Stanton. And do you know what their proposed trade package that they will make if they’re the GM:
All 5 for Stanton and his crazy contract. If i don’t need to go back to the office at 1PM I want to call and asked them if they know who are these players that they are trying to trading because it looks like they have no clue.
They describe Sixto as an A-ball guy, Nola as injury risk and so on. crazy.
It’s just dopey I too shot them a note. Again Stanton has a full no trade clause which I suspect he will not waive to come to our rebuild mess. He is likely to only waive to go to a playoff team or a Cali team.
I could see Stanton waiving his no trade to go to the Dodgers in the off-season. A realistic return is Puig, the Dodgers’ #1 prospect P Walker Buehler and top 5 prospect OFJeren Kendal. Whether the Phils could or would top that offer won’t matter. If Stanton wants to be in LA, waiving or buying his 2020 opt out would become a non-issue, as it would be somewhere he wouldn’t want to be. No GM would rob his farm for the prospect of only 3 years of Stanton.
The Dodgers at that point have a ridiculous payroll to along with being 9-deep with starting pitchers, if they re-sign Darvish.
ro the Dodgers –
2B Cesar Hernandez and P Ranger Suarez
ro the Phils –
P Scott Kazmir, 2B/3B Logan Forsythe, P Mitchell White and OF Starling Heredia
Kazmir is owed slightly north of $ 17 M for the last year of his contract. He’s a lefty which the Phils could use. He doesn’t figure in the Dodgers’ plans.
Forsythe would be a downgrade from Hernandez but has position flexibility. He’s a passable third baseman as the Phils unlock the Hernandez/Kingery deadlock at 2B.
White is a top 10 Dodger prospect; Heredia is further down.
Suarez needs 40 man roster protection this year but likely won’t get it. The Dodgers with their depth have greater concerns than losing Suarez in the Rule 5.
Kazmir on a mid-priced one year deal has no impact on the Phils’ ability to go after other high end starters. Unloading Kazmir frees up money for the Dodgers to re-sign Darvish. If you thought free agent Darvish was a strong candidate to come to Philly in ’18, then you won’t like this proposal.
KuKo…those guys live strictly in the present …lack any semblance of foresight.
And if that were to ever happen, in 3 years from now when Stanton is either nursing some injury and out, or trending downward, they will be the first to complain about him and that contract.
The Philis would be a team of only Doobie and Stanton haha. That’s bad
it’s funny because everyone in the 97.5thePhanatic claimed to be “sports guy” but most are really more of an Eagles-Sixers network and Martinez is the only one who know about hockey.
they had a round table before discussing the Phillies and it includes Brian Westbrook and I feel ready bad for BWest (I don’t care about the other hosts/guests) because BWest doesn’t know anything about the Phillies and he is forced to talk something about them. If BWest is not a respected athlete in Philly a true Philly sports fan will kick him in the nuts because BWest sounds ignorant talking about baseball and Phillies.
Unfortunately, there’s no good alternative behind 97.5.
I listen to WIP in the morning because they seem to talk a little more Phillies and do seem to have a little more knowledge about the rebuild. They also have Pete MAck on Wednesdays.
I listen to 97.5 on my way home because I do like the Eagles and Sixers and frankly need that little break from talking Phillies with you guys all day.
but damn it’s like nails on a chalkboard when they (97.5) try to talk Phillies. I’d rather they ignore the Phillies all together than pretend they have any knowledge about what’s going on with them.
WIP has decent Phillies coverage in the AM though Cataldi is a clueless reactionary. Otherwise 97.5 has better onair personnel notwithstanding Aton (spelling?) Shander who doesn’t take a day
…off. Macnow and Didinger have a good wknd show but they’re limited to football. All baseball talk radio is at best superficial in this town. Football is run into the ground ironically since the Eagles have THE worst history as far as coming through for their fan base.
From the Keith Law chat today:
Michael: What are your expectations for Rhys Hoskins?
Keith Law: Above-average regular. I’m in. He’ll continue to beat expectations.
By the way, on the velocity beating drum – example A, is Nick Pivetta.
Once upon a time he just had a good arm and struggled with command. Now that he’s developed better command and improved his secondary pitches his upside is much higher. Today he’s struck out the side in the first two innings (only a walk in the second, no hits). It’s pretty hard to do that if you’re just touching 92 MPH. I want more lottery tickets like Pivetta after we’ve gone through 3 or so rounds of the draft. It’s worth the risk – and Kenny Giles agrees :).
Catch, I have no explanation why, but a number of your comments seem to end up as spam. I thought perhaps your mail server might be the cause, but there is no pattern that I can detect that would indicate that is so. All I can do is to continue to try and determine the cause and correct it. In the mean time, I apologize for the delay in some of your comments posting.
Jim, no worries. I think sometimes it blocks my longer-winded comments to which the posting general public cries a collective “thank you!!”
@catch – Pivetta already has a big arm then they traded for him. His FB is sitting in 94-95 touching 96-97 when he struck out the side of the 1st 2 innings although all 6 Ks came from his breaking balls. There are some 2Ss thrown (91-92) but Pivetta carried his velocity until he was relieved.
The command is key for him and the development of another pitch behind the FB-CB combo. His SL struck out 5 of the first 6 Ks – which is a good sign. If Pivetta could just handled the baserunners better, his pitching line is very good last night.
Didn’t we also take a chance on another hard throwing pitcher in Alberto Tirado?
Anyways, it’s good that Pivetta had an outing like this but for me, it’s a really small step. He did it against a bad Padres team, and the last time he had a quality start against a decent team was 8 weeks ago. He has a long way to go.
Keep the (Mike Trout) dream alive !
Happy to see he got back home in between series in Washington and Baltimore
From MLBTR’s chat room yesterday, Jeff Todd thinks:
1 Phillies will go after Stanton either now and/or off season since they have the $$ and prospects/young mlb players “who may have lost their sheen” that would interest Miami; and
2 – Even though the Braves are further along in their rebuild, the Phils will make the playoffs sooner since they can buy the needed pieces.
3 – Hoskins may exceed expectations.
8mark…..all aboard the Hoskins train!
Back in’15 when he was at LKW and whenever his name was brought up on the chat rooms….it was he swung thru fast balls, too stiff, the ‘right hand bat first/baseman syndrome’, will he hit the better pitching in upper levels, et al.
KLaw did mention he under-estimated him….which he then said he did also with Paul Goldschimdt at one time.
Hopefully he keeps it going for another 7 years or more.
Weren’t we all on the Ruf or Rizzotti train back in the day?
@Guru….yes , the express train….little did we know then, it was the Orient Express.
Jeff Todd, who usually makes sense, doesn’t realize Stanton isn’t going anywhere he doesn’t want to go. Dodgers are buying up everybody and California is apparently where he would accept a trade. The Dodgers have the pieces to trade.
I can’t think of any reason or scenario in which, if Stanton is moved, it’s anywhere but LA..
Some might not have seen this…..pretty cool.
mike trout in a Lehigh uniform
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/summer-top-100-prospects/ Fangrahs top 💯
34 . Crawford 47 . Sixto 59. Mickey Mo 68. Scott Kingery 71. Rhys Hoskins 80. Alfaro 90. Medina 92. Haseley wow that’s 8 in the top 💯 ty Eric Longenhagen.
Tim……his comments on the Phillies.
“This is one of the tougher systems to line up right now, as one is forced to decide what to think of J.P. Crawford, who has suddenly begun hitting a bit after a horrendous first half. He looks very comfortable at the plate right now, grinding out long at-bats before either walking or hitting the ball hard somewhere. Sixto Sanchez is throwing strikes with elite velocity and flashing impact secondary stuff. Kingery’s early-season power spike was a caricature of actual improvements he has made to hit for more of it. Hoskins is going to be an everyday big-league first baseman. Williams and Alfaro are frustrating at times but talented enough to play a big-league role anyway and potential stars if they ever remedy their ills. Adonis Medina has a chance for three plus pitches. Kilome has pitched his way to Double-A. RHP Seranthony Dominguez, who was sitting 94-97 before injury, also garnered heavy consideration.”
1. J.P. Crawford, SS
2. Sixto Sanchez, RHP
3. Mickey Moniak, OF
4. Scott Kingery, 2B
5. Rhys Hoskins, 1B
6. Jorge Alfaro, C
7. Adonis Medina, RHP
8. Adam Haseley, CF
9. Nick Williams, OF
10. Franklyn Kilome, RHP
OMG, Eddie Ramos should be demoted on the spot. I can’t believe he pulled a Jose Valverde type meltdown. I don’t want to see him pitch again for the Phillies this season.
There was a comment that Mackanin wore out Ramos’ arm last year. His slider lacks bite this year.
Florimon starting today, he may be Blanco’s replacement. Kelly may be best PH in league right now.
JPC is starting 3b for LHV tonight. Lively is looking good today.
Florimon is the star of the game, first outfield game in the Major Leagues. Phillies have many players who can play multiple positions and 7 of them are switch-hitters. Lively pitched a great game and Morgan won back to back games.
Amazing what high OBP does for the entire lineup. Replacing Franco with JPC would be an interesting move. Not enough power or OPS for the spot, but I think it can be developed.
A lineup with Cesar, Doobie, Hoskins, & JPC will score many runs by default.
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