2017 Post Draft Discussion

Here’s the final thread to continue talking about the 2017 First Year Player Draft.

The Phillies concluded their portion of the 2017 First Year Player Draft with picks 11 thru 40. Those selections, as well as the first ten,  are being tracked in our 2017 Draft Tracker. As signings are announced, the tracker will be updated.  Be sure to share any information and I will incorporate it into the tracker.

During the first ten rounds, the Phillies selected 2 High school players and 8 college players.

Over the last thirty rounds they selected 9 high school players and  and 21 college players.

In all the Phillies drafted –

  • 11 HS players (5, 8, 11, 23, 28, 33, 34, 35, 37, 39, and 40)
  • (They selected 12 HS players in 2016 and signed the top 7 – 1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 13, and 22)
  • (That would be – Moniak, Gowdy, Stobbe, Stephen, Miller, Brown, and Young.)
  • 8 JUCO players
  • 14 college juniors (one a red-shirt)
  • 5 college seniors
  • 2 fifth year college seniors
  • 12 RHP
  • 8 LHP
  • 7 Outfielders
  • 2 Catchers
  • 4 Shortstops
  • 1 First basemen
  • 4 Third Baseman
  • 2 Second Baseman

 

162 thoughts on “2017 Post Draft Discussion

    1. Why any parent would let their kid pitch for the manager @ ND is beyond comprehension. Kid’s arm will be hanging by a thread when he’s done in South Bend.

  1. I find it hilarious how people are bashing this draft already. We won’t know for years how good this class is. Any judgement earlier is a disservice to common sense. This isn’t the NFL or NBA where you can get a good grasp on the draft class a year in. It takes years in baseball. I’m looking forward to seeing how the outfielder from UVA progresses over the next few seasons. College bats have been the first round strategy of the Cubs when they were picking in the top 10 (Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ).

    Not trying to compare situations, but a college hitter with a plus hit tool and an advanced approach is much more likely to reach the bigs than a high school arm. Sure, it would’ve been nice to see more higher ceiling candidates, but there’s no telling in how the marketplace behaves. (For instance, I saw somebody in the Day 3 thread mention how the Vanderbilt 3B was picked a couple spots before we picked the Houston 3B).

    Let’s let these kids play pro ball before writing them off as busts/low ceiling player!

      1. And for the record, I can be the same way. It’s easy for us to judge the FO and discuss what their moves should be. I think it can be frustrating for some because as fans, we may have personal preference over one player for various reasons and then another player gets picked and not deemed a sexy pic.

    1. my biggest surprise on here is how college bats with hit tools are not valued as much as they should be. Which is completely perplexing considering we came off many years of athletic HS projects who flamed out.

  2. No offense, but it’s even more hilarious that you would think we should wait years before we share our opinions. The reason this site succeeds is because fans express their opinions of prospects. If you feel Adam Haseley was a better choice than Shane Baz, by all means post it.

    1. Hinkie problem is when you make your opinion on here and its not rah rah for Phillies. Your consider a moron. If you dont post numbers when you talk about a player, like i donr. I base my opinions mostly from seeing the player verus coming on with obp and other stats. I Am told i am a moron. When your conviction on a player is so strong, You say in the middle of his hottest batting streak. He isnt a major league player. Cause you see the flaws in his swing, and post with conviction that if your wrong you will leave the stie. And for six weeks you told, to do the right thing and leave cause you said you would if he is a good hitter. Then he fades like you thought he would. All those hateful posters who said do the honorable thing and leave. Not one not one had the guts to say sorry. Lots of ignorant sheldons on here, I Listen to colletti last week talk about scouting a player. How he used stats in some cases when he couldnt see the player a lot. but its only part of the process. On here its all the process for most.

      1. rocco….what was that bet again….that you would run down Broad Street naked?
        You know, Broad Street might be too dangerous…how about just around Citizens Bank Park?

      2. I know just what you’re talking about Rocco. I see all the Williamsport home games and go to several Lakewood, Reading and Lehigh Valley games every season, plus go to ST for a few and get LV games on TV. Stats are a supplement to what I see with my own eyes. I have at times been trashed when I post my doubts on Franklyn Kilome, based on what I actually see from him, rather that what I read about him.

        1. of all players to single out you pick Kilome? I can give you about 10 more that you should be way more concerned about.

      3. Roccom who is the player your story was about? I’m not here as much of late so I missed it. Sounds funny tho

  3. As far as Day 3 HS kids go … It’s almost certain the Phillies have deal in place with Jake Holmes (11th round). He’ll probably get something similar to what last year’s 11th rounder Josh Stephen got (600-thousand). Benjamin Brown (33rd round) sounds like a solid bet to sign. He seems very similar to Kyle Young (22nd round last year). They’re both tall, projectable NY area pitchers with commitments to smaller colleges. Brown is scheduled to attend Sienna. Young got 225-thousand. I think Brown gets a similar bonus. The other two kids the Phillies may have the best chance to sign, IMO, are Edouard Julien (37th round) and DJ Stewart (39th round). Julien is Canadian and is committed to Auburn. Stewart is committed to Eastern Illinois. I believe the Phillies can sign one of these two.

  4. The Phillies were the worst team in baseball two years ago. Eighth worst team team in baseball last year. Worst team so far this year. Nobody working for the Phillies gets a free pass on anything including Almaraz. When you are this bad all drafts are super important. I believe Hinkie said it yesterday. Almaraz owns this draft and if this draft is even average then Almaraz should be shown the door. The bar needs to be raised for anybody employed by the Phillies in any capacity. The freaking Pirates immediately came to an agreement with the supposedly hardest top rated prospect to sign.

    1. The drafting and trading also is showing in the minors with winning records all over the minor leagues. That is an early result of the last few drafts. True results wont be seen until a few more years down the line.

    2. All drafts are important, period. But you make it sound like the Phillies should be killing the draft, and that’s where I disagree. How many times have the Twins been drafting in the top 10? Drafting is hard, period. Sure, if you’re drafting high, your odds should increase that you’re going to come out with a good player. But the operative word here is SHOULD. There are no guarantees in the baseball draft. The best player in this draft won’t be known for years. Now it could be the the #8 pick (hopefully), but it could easily be the 1st pick, 15 pick, 22 pick, you get my point.

      1. Mark Appel, Houston #1 pick. Case in point. Sometimes a can’t-miss prospect just doesn’t work out.

        1. On the other hand they said on the Phillies/Bosox game tonight that 9 of the Red Sox on the roster are 1rst round picks. Albeit not all the picks are theirs. Washington also with a high %.

  5. I like this draft Phillies took Chance’s 3rd day .they need 3rd base help , take some Ss always helps , I love CC kids always good players .

  6. I know zero about most of these players on day 3. I’ll say, I’ve seen some excitement about some of these picks compared to Day 1/2. Would someone mind breaking down the excitement? Are these high potential guys? Thank you!

      1. Next season perhaps Seth Beer will be there for the Phillies.
        But that would mean 4 years in a row with LHBs that, with the exception of Moniak, but he truly plays up to be only a CFer….. and maybe Haseley, a corner guy, are position limited.

        1. I read an article a few months ago. As I recall, a scout provided his perspective on Beer. He thought he would be a first baseman professionally.

          I saw him play in HS. He had the arm. I guess the concern is his range.

          He would have to rake next year to be top 5.

          1. Now that is what bothers me about the Haeley pick….not him as a player since I think he will be fine…..but the team now looks to be in the running for the first pick next year…..and Beer can flat out hit, he could be the best hitter in next years class, right now his first two years give that indication, especially power wise with 34 HRS, 1.2 OPS in over 500 PAs in his first two years…..do they have to pass on him if they get that first pick because there isn’t a position for him, since he may be limited to 1st or LF?

            1. Seth Beer can probably start his career at RF but he will eventually move to LF or 1B ala Dylan Cozens.

  7. If we play over/under/@ slot for each of the top 10 picks, what are we looking at. The #9 and #10 picks should be well under slot. They’re seniors and if they want to be generous, $25K a piece. I don’t know what to do with #8. He’s basically an Int’l signee so I think they drafted him in the 8 slot because that’s what they were willing to pay him. The HS kid they took at #5 could require a little more than slot. The J2 guy taken #7, could require less to sign him. All the others are Juniors. They could stay another year in college but I just don’t see them signing for more than they can get right now. I think they could gain $500K out of those picks with many of them getting slot and the top pick and the 2nd round pick giving back nearly all the $500K.

    That would leave nearly $1.1M for overslot guys taken after the 10th round (includes the 5% overslot allowance). Who could that get us? Holmes at #11 has to be on that list. The next HS’er is Drohan taken #23. So of the guys in between, how many could get more than $125K ?

    The money side of the draft is so hard to figure out. When Philly took Luke Williams, a basic unknown, they paid him at slot. I think everyone on this site groaned. Most of us were looking at him getting half of the slot amount. The guys in the top 10 have a little bit of a hammer on Phillies Mgmt because if you don’t sign the guy you remove his slot money from the total and the 5% overage drops. Remember when the Phils didn’t sign 2 guys in their top 10, Ben Holmes and Jason Monda, the pool significantly shrunk. Most people on this site where terribly upset that Mgmt didn’t know this would happen.

    Sometimes the money spoils everything. A lot of people on this site scream about not picking this guy or that guy but the money side of it has to brought to bear. If you can’t sign the guy with the money you think you’ll have, he can’t be picked. The only reason to pick him would be so another team, who has the money, can’t pick him. But that doesn’t do anything for that kid. He either has to take the lower money amount or go to College or stay in school another year.

    When I look at the draft, it looks like a jigsaw puzzle. This guy could fit here as a best guy available, but the cost makes the shape so it doesn’t fit into the puzzle. Or we can draft this guy because his money is right but his prospect status isn’t a good fit for the organization. Maybe the guy looks more like an Anthony Hewitt or Larry Greene. Why draft a guy who you don’t think can succeed just because he fits in your cost structure? That’s insane. It’s complicated to get the guys you draft to fit into your jigsaw puzzle. Don’t be so concerned about who the Phils didn’t draft but look at who’s on that draft list that you must sign; that you want to sign or possibly who you can sign.

    1. Mezquita has to get more than $166K IMO….as a J2 LHP signee that they rated this high…..he would have probably commanded at least $200K or more… RHP Francisco Morales got plus $700K last season and he was rated the best non-Cuban pitcher last J2 period.
      Drohan…committed to FSU…..do not see a signing there.

      1. @romus – i can see Mezquita signing at slot or possibly lower at $150k. Mezquita is older and a late J2 signing and those prospects are normally signed at a bargain price (<$200k).

        1. KuKo…..yes, I see that now…he is older than the average J2 signee….I did not take that into account. So your theory on his amount should be about right.

          1. He’s topping out at 94 a lefty maybe more but I think the Phillies signed him or agreed on a price.

      2. Mezquita is going to get whatever he was going to get 2 months ago when they had a deal to sign him. And since it was not over 100K then its not going to be over 100k now.

  8. Prima facie, this draft leans towards weak for the Phillies. Obviously, the paint hasn’t dried yet, but I was expecting some riskier selections. For example, after taking Haseley; a college bat, they selected Howard; a college pitcher. That would have been the perfect time to target a kid with a strong college commitment. The best candidates on the board were: Matt Sauer, Sam Carlson, Blayne Enlow, Mason House. Granted, it would have taken more than slot to get a deal done, but a lukewarm reliever-bound player like Howard is considered ho-hum.

    The Seabold pick like because it’s starting pitching depth and I guarantee he can be a below-slot sign. Guthrie was a good pick because he’s a proven college SS, with excellent defensive capabilities for a powerhouse program. The other guys are organizational fillers, but keep your eyes on Jake Holmes and David Parkinson. They could have some helium potential

    1. Do not understand why they did not follow last years plan…2nd round high ceiling/high risk HS arm. I think Haseley can be a slight under slot signing and that extra dollars could have gone straight to that 45th pick.

      1. Romus – my thoughts exactly. I don’t understand the strategy here. Maybe there’s a method to the madness, but last year’s draft for the Phillies turned out much better

        1. Better by what measure? We were happier with it? Those prospects have played…. a year, and we barely have data on them, and these prospects haven’t even signed yet. How can we/are we defining better?

          Personally, I go back to 2014 as the first year where you could really start assigning a good actual draft grade… though looking at the 2015 list, maybe even then you can start that process.

          1. Speaking of that 2104 draft…..almost all college guys by the old regime in the top ten rounds….this one is not too dissimilar in that regards, with only two HSer, if you count Mezquita as a HSer in the top 10 rounds..

          2. @rdmusings – i think John and Romus are talking about the draft method or strategy. if you follow draft closely for years and especially know the operator (i.e. Johnny A.), you can get a sense of what a team is doing when drafting and don’t need to wait years to figure that out.

            I agree with both John and Romus when they observe (and assumed) that the Phils will take high risk high reward in Rds 2 or 3 after taking a “safe” prospect in Haseley.

            1. Exactly. I or anyone of us don’t know how these guys will perform until they do. Until then, the Phillies’ strategy simply doesn’t make sense based on my observations lol

            2. @john – one conclusion that i’m starting to derive is that Johnny A. impliedly disregards the national rankings and almost exclusive rely on team’s scouting capabilities. It can be a smart ploy but it can be equally foolish as well. so the “balance” that most of us are looking for should somehow “hedge” the risk in Johnny A.’s draft methodology.

              since MLB teams cannot trade up or down their picks, Johnn A. appears to overreached for prospects he likes. Hopefully, Johnny A. knows how to work the pool $$ numbers and make this overreaching to his favor.

            3. So… I don’t disagree with any of this. I just don’t think I’d call this a bad draft, when it goes outside expected strategy. I’m instead looking for why that may be, more than trying to grade it.

            4. while some are disappointed and underwhelmed, nobody really is declaring that this is a failed draft. the Phils just missed the opportunity(ies) to acquire especial talent who are only available in the early rounds when the Phils decided to play safe – where most good teams will exploit to acquire talent if they can.

              JA’s first draft (2015) is starting to shape up – and none of the 2015 class appeared to be elite talents and considered top (100) prospect — (even if Kingery changed that – JA drafted Kingery in a position where most expects Kingery to be drafted anyway).

        2. I think there was definitely a method to the madness. I think they signed Howard and Seabold (and the 4th rounder too) to underslot deals and pushed the money down to get 3 other 4th – 6th round talents in Rounds 11-13. I guess that is where they saw the value. I’m not saying they are right. I;m just saying that’s pretty clearly what they did

      2. But also remember Moniak signed millions under slot so they had extra cash tyo throw at those exciting players. Perhaps they are trying to get quantity but without as much $ to do it.

  9. Johnny A was pretty clear that they think Howard has the best FB of a right handed Starter that they saw. To me, that is a strong test case. I have seen almost all reviews of him to be back end rotation or a bullpen arm, drafted much higher than he should have been. Phils need to be much smarter than everyone else for this to have been a good pick. But, maybe they are and we just haven’t seen it yet?

    1. would love to know if anyone in media asked Johnny A to clarify his comments.
      when he said “top righthanded arm” does that mean all guys in draft, all college righthanders, or just righthanders available at their pick in round 2.
      and when he says Howard was one of few guys with chance to be a “front line guy”, does that mean top of rotation guy?

      hey, people didnt want them to draft another 4 or 5 starter and it seems he thinks he drafted someone who can be much more then that. he put it out there so he can be held accountable if Howard doesnt develop towards that.

      1. RAEF, He said that based on the movement of his fastball and his ability to locate it, it was the best FB of any right hander they had scouted this year. And, to me, “front line guy” has to mean a #1 or a #2. I hope that he is right. I have been a Phillies fan for 57 years. My point was only that he put himself out there, and his opinion is much different than everybody else’s. So, if he is right, then he, and the area scout that was so high on him, saw something that other scouts did not.

        1. That could be the case….seeing something others may have overlooked.
          Understand Howard was a relief pitcher until his final season, and then only started 12 games….so he could be a hidden gem.
          Virtually the same scenario as Jacob deGrom…who also only started 12 games his last year at a little school like Stetson….and how very pedestrian metrics there.

    2. @matt13 – i’m still lukewarm with JA when it comes to pitching prospects. Gowdy is the only pitcher he acquired that shows TOR potential – which by the way, most scouts see it as well. so JA’s evaluation of pitching talent is still a “?” for me. Unlike Sal A. who has now a good track record of producing “pitching gems” – Kilome, Seranthony, Sixto, Adonis, Edgar Garcia, etc. are basically a product of pure scouting (and with some luck) ability of Sal A’s team.

  10. So,does anyone know, let’s say that the Phillies do not sign, for example, their 2nd round pick, they get an extra pick next year – do they get to use that slot money this year?

  11. anybody’s guess here is pretty much holds the same value as nobody here that i know holds a crystal ball. even scouts who are paid top $$ to evaluate talents have high failure rate so in a draft with a low success rate – why not make your bet on prospects with louder tools?? you may not agree with this, but i think this is still a valid argument.

    and i like it better when someone makes clear of his opinion (doesn’t matter whether i agree or not) rather than someone who throws vanilla argument but doesn’t take any position.

    1. Louder tools sometimes mean more risk at failure. So if that player bombs after 3 years (very likely), Almaraz is going get crapped on because he’s going back to the days of Golson and Jeff Jackson. Almaraz can’t win. So if he takes college guys, he’s playing it safe. If he takes loud tools, it’s the 90s all over again.

      1. @Guru – MLB draft success rate is super low – so the nature of the draft itself is a high gamble. Most great players in the MLB right now have loud tools and you rarely see a dominant player that’s vanilla. We already have a discussion in the past about risk and risk averse. Most of the people/business who sustain success took risks and failed at some point in time. The scouts are getting paid top $$ for them to be worried on being crapped on is a lame excuse.

        1. So maybe on this particular draft, the scouts were higher on college guys than the HS guys. Has anybody thought about that?

          So you agree that the MLB draft success rate is pretty low. So you would be ok with the Phillies going after loud tools guys that for the most part will fail year after year, then next thing you know, we ‘re in the top 10 for the next 8 years?

          1. what i’m looking for is a strike of “balance” in the draft methodology. The Phils have 40 rounds to pick but most high reward prospects are probably gone after Day 1. With 2 picks in Day 1, JA could strike a balance by drafting a “safe” and a “high risk high reward” prospect in 1.8 and 2.45 (and vice versa). Day 1 and Day 2 doesn’t seem to have that “balance” that’s why there are a number that are not satisfied. The mood changed in Day 3 when JA dipped his fingers more on the “high risk high reward” bucket to compliment a number of org fillers in the later round.

            Since most talents are getting drafted in Day 1 so the 1st 2 picks somehow defines the whole draft class.

            1. Correct or not, the success of the draft will likely depend on the first 2 picks because they have the most talent and consequently, the better odds to reach the majors.

              I’m going to give Almaraz the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the draft. That’s his job. I don’t know what will happen in 3-4 years time. Maybe Hasely hits like Utley, maybe not.

              While drafting high reward types are nice, the Phillies still need to fill out the 25 man roster. The Phillies will not have superstars at every position. Heck, even the Red Sox don’t have that. So drafting an Aaron Nola type player, I don’t have a problem with that. He’s in the majors, he’s generating some WAR (hopefully better WAR as he ages), he’s cheap.

            2. if the 25-man is your issue, you can always find warm bodies to fill the spot. You don’t need to fill create a 25-man full of stars at every position, but a team better have at least 2-3 to anchor the team. superstars don’t grow on trees and don’t fall in your lap — you need to get out of your comfort zone and look for it. you don’t hope for it, you aspire. being risk averse is “betting on hope” things will get better than they are actually are.

              i think you don’t need to be a genius to understand my position — “what i’m looking for is a strike of “balance” in the draft methodology” — this strike of balance should also be applied in FAs, IFAs and Team management. A well balanced team is the most probable team to make a sustainable run.

            3. They don’t need superstars at every position but they need superstars at a couple of positions. Teams don’t win championships with a roster full of solid regulars…

  12. I like the draft, yes it’s missing the high ceiling if everything pans out kids. But the kids they did take are baseball players with solid all around tools. Pitchers that can pitch and locate, hitters that play up the middle and have solid hit tools. They are all true baseball players not athletes that we are dreaming on.

  13. Bergeraj, You may be exactly right. I think the problem that a lot of us have is that the whole system is lacking in those top level prospects. We thought JP was, and we may have been wrong. So, we are looking for that next star player. I have rarely seen a commenter here hope they fail, maybe 1 or 2 from years ago, but they stopped posting. So, we want to see a little risk taking to get that star. Maybe Howard is that good. Maybe the later day guys turn out to be “the man”.

    1. @matt – my position in this site is always been acquiring elite talent in this club (across all levels) and took a shot of accumulating stock pile of thumbs down for it. acquiring elite talents sounds like a dream to others, but you will not get it until you reach for it. you will see KuKo associated with the Otani’s, the Machado’s, the Trout’s, and the Groom’s, the Pint’s, the Baz’s, the over blowing the IFA pool for high end J2s and Cubans and trading players with no loud tools for players with potentials.

      For the last 4-5 years, the Phillies I think accumulated enough depth and “safe” pool of talent. And the obvious “donut” is the elite talent and that’s what I think the Phils should highly consider. The Phillies doesn’t even have a “face of the franchise” — and if you will ask me, the Phillies Phanatic will probably take that award.

      1. I don’t know why you got thumbs down for that. I agree with you, KuKo, that if they are to become a contender again, there will need to be elite talents somewhere on the team. Trout isn’t coming here, if he is ever going to, as much as he likes the area, unless we have a good team to come to. I want them to go after all of the top talent. And, the owner said that they would. I am not writing off this draft at all. I would have taken Baz, but that is just my opinion. But, I agree with you that they have to keep reaching for the stars, not to be too corny. So, I gave you the thumbs up.

        1. thumbs down doesn’t bother me at all. it means to me that somebody read what i post. i’m a gambling guy and love to take risks – and that is always a very unpopular approach.

  14. I’m in the camp of let’s see what happens with the new additions. I am not thrilled right now with the draft (but our minor league teams are shoo-ins to keep winning in the next 5 years…). However, I am not going to already deem this draft as an abject failure before any of the draftees set foot on the field. I wonder if the long range plan (if there is one) is to alternate HS heavy drafts with college heavy ones like (2016-2017). Bottom line is time will tell.

  15. Read article today that 10th round pick P from Lewis & Clark agree to deal for $5000 right before he was selected…..said he knew being a 5th year SR he had no say in it.

    1. still surprised they didnt put in some minimum $ bonus requirement for top 10 picks in the last CBA. At least 20k? that makes a big difference for that kid, and its not like you are going to lose out on signing someone else because you were 15k short.

  16. Saw brief video of Jake Holmes predraft interview. I like the kid. Kingery type with a bit more cockiness (in a good way). Not necessarily the tools of Jetp…..sorry, I mean Kingery. But at 6’4, 194 lbs, his eventual move from SS to 3b should draw a lot of attention.

    1. Yeah, those appear to be some of the better picks right now – but who knows?

      What I do know is I wish I saw some more projectable arms, but we will see.

      1. The one pick that intrigues me is LHP Mezquita, the 19-year old from the DR but schooled here in the states, and who reportedly velos at 91-93.
        I have to assume he could very well go back home to the DR and the academy at Boca Chico….which would be strange being a Rule 4 draftee….and pitch for either Red or White for awhile or maybe they may just let him go straight into the GCL.

  17. I like this draft. Solid baseball players become solid ml. Tired of the Jackson’s, Golson’s ,Hewitt’s and pitchers that flame out .

  18. I want to make it clear that I’m not risk averse when it comes to drafting. If the talent outweighs the risk, then I’m all for it. But perhaps for Almaraz, Haseley’s hitting abililty was just so good that he overshadowed the talent (which comes with risk) of Baz.

    While it’s true that you need some superstars to win, you just won’t know who will become a superstar. I don’t think anybody thought that Utley was going to become the player he was for the Phillies. You could argue that Pat Burrell had the loudest tools of all the first round picks the Phillies have made in recent years.

    1. while knowing who can be an elite talent (or superstar) is a hard task, the method of acquiring one is straight forward:

      Method 1 – Free Agency (Domestic and International). Teams just need to open their wallets. If you don’t want to spend $$ (and/or believe that your are cheaper than other teams) then you don’t get an elite FA to your team.

      Method 2 – Trade. Players don’t only play for your team. They are also you asset and can be your currency to acquire talent via trade. And the bitter reality is, “high risk high upside” prospects are better trade currency than “safe high floor low ceiling” players. Think of Chris Sale trade.

      Method 3 – Develop. This is basically the product of scouting and player development. However, development (and most likely than not)is reaping what you sow. You don’t expect a good product from inferior material. There will be exceptions to the rule, but those are exceptions and not the rule.

      Method 4 – Luck. Throw anything and hope something sticks. It you don’t believe in the concept of lottery, then you will not like this.

      Methods 1 and 2 will be the best way to acquire elite talent because you are pretty much getting to an established player. Method 3 is also good, but this will require taking risks (ergo bet on high risk high upside talent vs safe).

      Utley projects to be a 5-tool player and projected to develop into a 70-grade hit tool. Utley becomes an elite player because he has elite tools and he is a highly regarded prospect (drafted by LAD in 2nd rd but did not sign) and Phils subsequently drafted in the 2nd rd. Utley is basically the type of high risk high ceiling prospect that JA should be targeting in Day 1.

      1. So if the Phillies trade some prospect for JD Martinez and Blackmon or a TOR Pitcher that’s under 27 it would be ok. That is prospect no body on the current mL roster.

  19. Picks I like based on total value ($$ and opportunity):

    1) Mezquita LHP (8.233) – I view him as Sal A. talent and not Johnny A. Sal A. already proved that he can find pitching gems with high upside. Mezquita might be in the same bucket.

    2) Hernandez LHP (21.623) – big strike throwing lefty. Slides due to bad year, so he can be a steal.

    3) Holmes SS (11.323) – i think the Phils can sign him. Big SS with tools of potential high end SS.

    4) Brown RHP (33.983) – towering HS pitcher from NY area. Kyle Young potential?

    I also like the Drohan and Hurt picks, but I think they are tough sign.

    1. Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

      You’re not allowed to mention AJ Puk around here without people getting upset.

      14.9 K/9 in high A and now promoted to AA

      It’s Ok to like Moniak but still recognize that Puk is doing well and we may have missed out on him.

      Key word = may

      You never know whats going to happen but both Puk and Senzel are out performing Moniak so far.

      That is also ok to say. And people don’t have to remind me that Moniak was a high schooler and they were college players and yada yada yada. Thats all takien into consideration.

      The fact is, right now, they are out performing Moniak. Doesn’t mean Phillies made the wrong pick necessarily (although it may end up meaning that), it’s just an observation and will be interesting to follow.

      So glad they didn’t take jason groome though. I was under attack in the draft posts last year for a good month and a half when I was anti-Groome. You wouldve thought I was talking about some commenters family members judging by their reaction to me when I said I would take AJ Puk over Groome and Moniak

      1. Strange and odd as it may appear, the As have both the former Friday and Saturday night starters from the 2015 and 2016 Gators in their system and both were on the same staff at Stockton ..Hi-A… up to Puk’s promotion.

      2. Tough to compare a college pitcher with a HS outfielder but your points are valid. Puk looks like a good pick so far but it’s too early to say that Moniak isn’t. Just glad we didn’t invest Pick 1.1 in Groome and his 8 IP of professional ball over 2 years.

        1. don’t be too quick on the trigger. Groome and Gowdy are drafted on the same day and Gowdy only pitched 9 IP since drafted and expected to start in A-Short.

          I got this similar argument from a buddy that argued with me that the Phils wasted $3.5M for a player who only pitched 9 IP and still in the “very low” minors.

      3. I’m not sure how did you easily come up to a conclusion that Puk and Senzel are out performing Moniak right now. I assume that you based it on minor league stats — which really is not the most reliable method to evaluate a prospect.

        Moniak vs Senzel is a close call – the fact that the national outlets ranks both close to one another in the prospect ladder shows that you can’t get wrong in drafting either player as the 1st 2 picks. What’s important to know is that knowledgeable baseball folks are saying that Moniak is steady improving as he continue to get challenged in the minors level.

        Unlike NBA and NFL where most teams “should” draft the BPA — MLB has different mechanics because of the signability and $$ pool consideration. Groome is still considered as a premium prospect and if the Phils signed Groom for $3.65M (the amount he signed with BOS) at 1.1 — that is still a good option since that gives the Phils $5.3M savings (Moniak savings is $3M) which the Phils can allocate to another premium prospect in the later round.

      4. When Groome reaches and out preforms (in what ever way you want to look at it) Moniak, you’ll wish we picked him. Don’t get the Groome hate.

  20. Sickles on the Phillies draft:
    ANALYSIS: College success is the early theme here, with Haseley a polished bat with speed, defense, and improving power, Howard a combination of solid stuff (92-95) with command. Seabold also offers excellent control while Scheiner has substantial power but questions about his glove. Lindow is an upside lefty but will need development work, while Guthrie was a possible first rounder until suffering through shoulder and ankle injuries that sapped his tools and skills. SLEEPERS: There’s a lot of upside with seventh round pick Nick Maton (SS, Lincoln Land JC) and Jhordany Mezquita (LHP, from the Dominican Republic but a resident of Hazelton, Pennsylvania who was declared draft-eligible and can hit 90-92). 10th rounder Connor Brogdon (Lewis-Clark State) throws strikes with a good curve, while 17th rounder Austin Listi (OF-1B, Dallas Baptist) has loads of power. IMPRESSIONS: It’s a conservative draft on the surface but there’s some creative thinking here, notably with Lindow and Mezquita. Haseley has multi-threat potential and a healthy Guthrie would have gone four rounds sooner.

    1. I love the “conservative draft with some creative thinking”. That feels dead on. I wouldn’t call it bad… but I would agree completely with this moniker here.

  21. Not bad Romus, conservative, we all agree, and maybe the creative thinking pays off. Nobody else seems to add “exceptional movement” when describing Howard’s FB, but we shall see. Does anyone have an update on Guthrie’s current health?

  22. I like the Mahon pick the Phillies did alot the of work at the CC level. Brogdon stats are really good the more you look into this draft the better you like it.

  23. if i heard correctly, Johnny A on phils pre-game indicated they essentially have deals in place with 90% of their picks, and said they through Colby Fitch was the best catcher in the draft.

    1. So my math sucks but that means 4 don’t have a deal in place. Let’s hope they aren’t the longshot kids 🙂

  24. Not sure if anyone has mentioned this but Shane Drohan says he will not sign and will honor commitment to FSU

    1. Had not seen that, but no surprise. Still don’t mind the Phillies taking a flyer on the kid in the 23rd round; was worth a shot.

  25. I did zero research and have seen none of these guys play. So my entire opinion is based on other’s.
    I agree that Baz should have been their choice since his projection is so high and growing an Ace would be awesome. Other than Baz it seems like Haseley should have been next choice so I am not that upset. Haseley could improve as he focuses on hitting. Not sure on his fielding upside but his arm should be very good and speed above average?
    Howard is most contoversial since he was an overdraft. I am not sure how many guys develop control. Almaraz does not think they will so this pick is one to judge him on.
    The rest of the guys seem okay. The 11th round guy will sign as it should for most teams, as they likely know the money situation and have the extra day to make an offer before drafting them.
    Everyone wants to dream on the high school kids, but some college kids might surprise.
    Much happier learning that Florida SS was potential 1st rounder so maybe with further recovery, his upside increases.

    I think Phillies have some high risk, plus tool types above AA: Velasquez, Neris, Alfaro, Cozens, Joseph, Williams, Herrera, Quinn. Crawford and Nola who were high floor types have had their struggles.
    The guy I use as a reference is Aumont. He had 3 plus pitches, and possibly another above average pitch, with great size. His upside was enormous with floor of dominant closer and he just could not control the arsenal.

    1. I’m not understanding the disdain for the round 2 pick? This guy had great numbers…..AS a starting pitcher at slo. Who cares what some publications think, obviously the scouts felt he can start so why would we like the seabold pick and not the Howard pick? Plus these hs picks of phils past have not fared real well!

      1. My complaint was the strategy involved.
        IMO, Howard would have still been there at 83….and Seabold more then likely at 113…risky on him but still worth it to take that risk.
        But after 45…there were 8 HS pitchers selected between the 46th and 83rd pick ..with higher ceilings and higher risk factors than Howard’s projection.
        The money was not the issue since the 45th was slotted at approx. $1.5M and Haseley may sign slightly under his slotted figure, so more savings there for the 45th.
        Now, if on the other hand, Baz was selected at 1.8, as I had hoed…then the Howard pick at 45 would make more sense to me.
        It is just my opinion on the strategy they decided to use.

        1. If all that is true, would agree but we don’t know what haseley is signing for. I’m indifferent about the higher ceiling stuff, and nobody know if seabold would have been there in the 4th round or Howard in the 3rd it’s all speculation. The one thing about the draft now is, if you like a player you cannot afford to wait imo. Too much talk about talent level being depleted so if you like him go get him

          1. while it can be true that Howard may not be there at 3.83 – it’s still 50-50 chance and that’s if you follow a “no nothing approach”. however, these baseball people spend a lot of time scouting, evaluating and ranking players — and I’ve never seen any indication coming from these baseball people that Howard will be drafted earlier than where is projected to be at and this is better than the “no nothing approach” and just say “well, nobody knows if he’s there or not so let’s just take him”. this approach is fine if Howard is the best talent available, otherwise, the Phils is missing an opportunity to acquire a potential elite talent. On Day 1 of the draft, the main objective of most teams is to grab that “elite talent” normally available in Rd1 and Rd 2 — as they have the rest of Day 2 and Day 3 (for a total of 38 picks) to play around with what they want to do.

            After 3 years of Johnny A., one conclusion I’m starting to derive (I already mentioned this before) is that Johnny A. has complete disregard of national rankings and almost exclusively rely on his scouting team on evaluating prospects based on the parameters he is looking for (i.e. pitchers with command, hitters that get on base, etc). Since teams cannot trade up or down, teams with scouting people like Johnny A. tend to overreach for prospects they like in the early rounds.

            We’ve seen Johhny A. overreached for C Randolph, Lucas Williams, Bailey Falter (Kingery is not an overreach since he was drafted just about where he is ranked) — and after 3 years of pro ball we can already see if Johnny A. is smart or foolish in his 2015 draft strategy.

            In 2016 draft, Johnny A. was able to take advantage of one of the biggest $$ pool to take riskier approach (the draft strategy that me, Romus and some are looking for 2017) as evidenced by overslot payments in Rds 2 – 5 and not counting the over slot to Stephen and Young.

            After the dust had settled, the 2017 draft strategy looked like the 2015 strategy since Johnny A. appeared to overreached again for the “prototypical Johnny A” prospects despite of the prospects with higher upside are still available at 2.45 and 3.83.

            I prefer the 2016 draft strategy where Johnny A. targets the prospects with the best upside regardless of the over slotting need. And IMO the prospects in 2016 draft are starting to show glimpse on why you need to consider higher upside that being safe.

            I will withhold my assessment of the draft until all signings are done. If the rumor is true that Johnny A. can sign 90% of the draftees (my guess for the 4 non-signees are #23 Drohan, #34 Hurt, #35 Morrell and #40 Coumoulus) – then it will look to me that Johnny A. just combine a balance between the 2015 and 2016 draft strategies which is a good sign since Johnny A. look to be pragmatic in his approach.

            1. Read the article on Howard today. I get a Roy Halladay vibe from this kid. Practices meditation which indicates he could be mentally strong and heady about pitching. Just my impression.

            2. 8mark…although he has only pitched less than 90 innings over a two year span, there are positives….and one is the fact he is still 20-years old…for another month at least. So he has youthful ‘age’ on his size and that is key to development.
              I like to see him start with the Crosscutters with short-season ball in the NYPL.

            3. if JA can sign Howard for at least $600k discount, that pick can turn out to be a smart pick. although for me Day 1 picks should be high ceiling prospects unless you plan to underslot big time and use the savings to sign another Top 100 prospect in the later round.

              I can see Howard’s floor as Ben Lively.

            4. I bet Morrell and Hurt sign , look at it this way . Lively know for his control,command went 7 ings in his first 3 starts . VV whos stuff is outstanding is still trying to find his control, command.

        2. Howard is a weird Draftee , he didn’t start until the middle of the yr. So how many baseball man seen him. I’ ve him as high as 49 , Eric Long has his stuff as a 2 but his control as a 3 . He’s young and plus he pitched in a vg division this yr. I mean is Howard at 20 yrs old .

      2. Well, when we had a good scouting director, H.S. kids like Rollins and Hamels did very well for us.

  26. Tweet didn’t say who or how many, but Wink said sounds like a lot of Phillies picks will be in town Sunday to sign

  27. I’ve put together a list of the guys most likely to go 1-1 (assuming they end up with the worst record this seson) to the Phillies next year:

    LOGICAL COLLEGE CANDIDATES:
    * Seth Beer – Mega-power and very high OBP. The fact that he’s limited to 1B/LF may hurt his chances
    * Nick Madrigal – MIF, team leader and best player on the top college club in the country. Hit .380/.422/.537 15 SB so far this season. His size (5’7″ 150 lb) will hurt his chances.
    * Brady Singer – will be U of Fla “ace” next season. Was a high draft pick out of HS two years ago. Was the best pitcher in the Cape Cod League last summer.
    * Zach Linginfelter – will be a draft eligible Soph. Big and strong workhorse for the U on Tenn. Throws a heavy 96 MPH FB.

    HIGH SCHOOL CANDIDATES:
    * Kumar Rocker – Similar to Hunter Greene. Hard throwing RHP. Throws in the upper 90’s, but a HSRHP has never gone 1-1.
    * Brice Turang – Plays all over the diamond. May be athletic enough to stay at SS. Nice, easy, LH swing.
    * Jarred Kelenic – LH hitting OF from Wisconsin. Has tremendous bat speed.

    DARK HORSES:
    * Justin Hooper – Tall (6’7″) hard throwing (92-97 MPH) LHP from UCLA. Was a top 50 prospect coming out of HS, but had a strong commitment to UCLA. Will have to learn how to harness his talents and learn how to throw strikes. This year … 46 IP, 36 H, 52 K, but 26 BB, 15 HBP, 11 WP.
    * Jeremy Eierman – Plays SS for Missouri St., and was overshadowed by his more well-known teammate, Kyle Burger. Eierman was no slouch in his So. season. He slashed .313/.431/.675 15 doubles, 2 triples, 23 HR’s. He may end up sliding over to 3B next season now that Burger is gone.
    * Mike Siani – Local HS hero from Penn Charter Prep. Sweet swinging LH OF’er has been competing on the showcase circuit for the past couple of years.

    1. The real shame of possibly owning the 1-1 pick in 2018 is the guy who would likely have been the top pick, sadly, died this time last year. Donny Everett drowned while on a fishing trip. Everret was a top 25 player for the 2015 draft. He was throwing 99 MPH as an 18 YO. However, his commitment to Vanderbilt was strong so he wasn’t drafted until the 23rd round.

    1. Most comes from the savings of Brogdon. I remember a poster saying on here that he was signing for $5k

      1. Brogdon savings are $130.5k. The Phillies should get similar savings (actually probably $5k to $10k more) from their 9th round pick, Zoellner, who is another college senior.

    1. Jonathan Mayo @JonathanMayo·4m

      .@Phillies able to save $ w/signing of Jhordany Mezquita in 8th rd; Gets $50k (value pick 233=$166K). LHP from DR had to go thru @MLBDraft

    2. Wow I was way off…I had him close to $200K but without thinking he was an supposedly intended earlier signing as a LA international…….great signing and savings for sure.

  28. A few thoughts.

    Adam Haseley- liked the pick didn’t love the pick. He is growing on me.

    Connor Seabold- MLB rating for control is 65. I’ll take that any day.

    Dalton Guthrie- on a personal note his father was my friend’s roommate in college. Lots of SS in the system. If he can hit they will find a spot for him.

    Jake Holmes- some people are excited. I see an MLB rating of 45 for hit and wonder if he can consistently make contact. We have not done a great job with Luke Williams and Mitch Walding (who is knocking them out of the park but still needs to make more contact). His best rating is a 60 for speed especially for being 6-3.

    Four draftees are in the CWS.

  29. Wow CSU beating Oregan st 5 1 in the 4 th. Big Sky showing there Moxie Howard and Seabold confence.

  30. Watched Seabold yesterday he threw 99% fastballs 88-92 touched 93 a couple times fastball had excellent movement but I think he is going to need a decent breaking ball if he is going to remain a starter.

    1. Agreed with the secondary pitch. Yesterday he had to average 20 pitches per inning. Control was as good as advertised (especially effective with the low strike) but OSU batters got a lot of two strike contact. Ben McDonald made a great point about him needing to pitch inside more. Overall a B+ grade from me. Shame that he hit 100 pitches in 5 innings and was taken out because I think CSF would have won if he gets to the 7th inning.

      I wonder where Phillies send FSU’s Quincy Nieporte (SR 1b/DH) if he signs. Had a pretty productive offensive year. Saw him a lot on TV this year. Not athletic though.

      1. Because he turns 23 next month, they could skip NYPL and send him to Lakewood. But do they do that sort of thing with recent college draftees?

          1. rocco…..let you know after they finish their signings. I mean Hurt would be nice…..but he looks like a strong USC commit now, and the Phillies will not be able to go over slot enough to satisfy him….I would think, along with Drohan the pitcher headed for FSU.

        1. I can’t think of a pitcher since 2014 who bypassed GCL with a direct assignment other than Nola whose first assignment was Clearwater. Most of the others are assigned to GCL and move up later. Notable, Dan Child was signed and assigned to GCL and jumped to CLW three weeks later. Others take slower route GCL-LWD or WPT-LWD on way to Clearwater.

          1. The lack of information on signings is deafening. I thought the idea was that the team was bringing in most of their draftees to sign on Sunday. Sunday has come and gone and almost no news. This is very different than past years.

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