2017 Draft Discussion: Week of May 30th

I have no updates of individual prospects, because I received another interesting submission from John Yarusinsky.  It is a second mock draft that he did, and once again represents a lot of work.  I appreciate this very interesting commentary and hope you enjoy it.

Thank you, John.

The file arrives as a .pdf and requires a lot of reformatting if I block and copy it into an article.  So, I got lazy and just copied his intro and the analysis for the Phillies #8 pick, since he has selected the same player for the Phillies in both mock drafts.  The whole mock draft can be read here, 2017 MLB Mock Draf tVersion 2.0.  John’s first Mock Draft can be read here, 2017 MLB Mock Draft Version 1.0.  Both Mock Drafts sans analysis are listed at the bottom of this article.

2017 MLB Mock Draft: Version 2.0
By John Yarusinsky
Intro

It’s Monday, May 22, 2017 and we are less than one month away from the 2017 MLB First-Year Player Draft that takes place on Monday, June 12, 2017. This is my second attempt at predicting all 30 selections in round one. In the first mock, I attempted to take everything into consideration such as:

  • taking the best player available phenomenon,
  • organizational need,
  • bonus pool caps,
  • signability concerns,
  • draft history, etc.

In Version 2.0, I’ve constructed this mock draft in similar fashion. In the analysis section for each pick, it’s broken down into multiple components. It contains information from scouting reports and all other thoughts are my own, based on viewing hours of video. All 30 selections from the first mock can be located at the bottom of this article. With all of that in mind, let’s dive into mock draft version 2.0!

8. Philadelphia Phillies  (Mock Draft 2.0)
Slot value: $4,780,400
Bonus pool: $8,729,100
Pick: Austin Beck, OF (N. Davidson HS, NC)

Analysis: On May 13, 2016, Austin Beck tore his ACL, effectively ending his season.  The outfielder came back this spring with a vengeance to lead North Davidson High to another state playoff run. The Black Knights lost to T.C. Roberson on May 17th; however, Beck finished the season with a bang. He hit three home runs and a single, good for a .590 average. Some scouts have compared him to Wil Myers and even Mike Trout due to his overall athleticism and determination. It’s unlikely Beck will ever reach the Trout ceiling; however, the potential for five tools is definitely there. Beck has advanced plate discipline and he simply attacks the zone. In amateur wood bat leagues, Beck’s skill set has been described as mediocre, which might scare some teams away, as well as his strong commitment to North Carolina. With the Phillies farm system being one of the best, they can afford to take their time developing Beck if he’s selected.

8. Philadelphia Phillies  (Mock Draft 1.0)
Slot value: $4,780,400
Bonus pool: $8,729,100
Pick: Austin Beck, OF (N. Davidson HS, NC)

Analysis: If Beck is still on the board at 8th overall, the Phillies should be all over him. Beck tore his ACL in May of 2016; however, he’s led N. Davidson to another state title run. Some scouts have compared him to Wil Myers and even Mike Trout. It’s unlikely Beck will ever reach the Trout ceiling; however, the potential for five tools is definitely there. He’s committed to UNC, so the Phillies will have to come strong.

Mock Draft 1.0

1. Twins- Brendan McKay LHP/1B (University of Louisville)
2. Reds- Hunter Greene RHP/SS (Notre Dame HS, CA)
3. Padres- MacKenzie Gore, LHP (Whiteville HS, NC)
4. Rays- Royce Lewis, SS/OF (JSerra Catholic HS, CA)
5. Braves- Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderiblt)
6. A’s- Pavin Smith, 1B (University of Virginia)
7. D’Backs- J.B. Bukauskas, RHP (North Carolina)
8. Phillies- Austin Beck, OF (N. Davidson HS, NC)
9. Brewers- Alex Faedo, RHP (Florida)
10. Angels- Adam Haseley, OF (University of Virginia)
11. White Sox- Jordon Adell, OF (Ballard HS, KY)
12. Pirates- Nick Pratto, 1B/OF (Huntington Beach HS, CA)
13. Marlins- Jake Burger, 3B (Missouri State)
14. Royals- Shane Baz, RHP (Concordia Lutheran HS, TX)
15. Astros- Sam Carlson, RHP (Burnsville HS, MN)
16. Yankees- Griffin Canning, RHP (UCLA)
17. Mariners- Jeren Kendall, OF (Vanderiblt)
18. Tigers- DL Hall, LHP (Valdosta HS, GA)
19. Giants- Keston Hiura, 2B/OF/DH (UC Irvine)
20. Mets- Alex Lange, RHP (LSU)
21. Orioles- Bubba Thompson, OF (M. Thoolen Catholic HS, AL)
22. Blue Jays- Clarke Schmidt, RHP (South Carolina)
23. Dodgers- Blayne Enlow, RHP (St. Amant HS, LA)
24. Red Sox- Heliot Ramos, OF (Leadership Christian Academy, P.R.)
25. Nationals- Luke Heimlich, LHP (Oregon State)
26. Rangers- Trevor Rogers, LHP (Carlsbad HS, NM)
27. Cubs- Brendon Little, LHP (State College of Florida)
28. Blue Jays- Brady McConnell, SS (Merritt Island HS, FL)
29. Rangers- Evan White, 1B/OF (Kentucky)
30. Cubs- Brent Rooker, 1B/OF (Mississippi State)
Mock Draft 2.0
1. Twins- Brendan McKay LHP/1B (University of Louisville)
2. Reds- Hunter Greene RHP/SS (Notre Dame HS, CA)
3. Padres- Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt)
4. Rays- Royce Lewis, SS/OF (JSerra Catholic HS, CA)
5. Braves- MacKenize Gore, LHP (Whiteville HS, NC)
6. A’s- Pavin Smith, 1B (University of Virginia)
7. D’Backs- J.B. Bukauskas, RHP (North Carolina)
8. Phillies- Austin Beck, OF (N. Davidson HS, NC)
9. Brewers- Alex Faedo, RHP (Florida)
10. Angels- Adam Haseley, OF (University of Virginia)
11. White Sox- Jordon Adell, OF (Ballard HS, KY)
12. Pirates- Shane Baz, RHP (Concordia Lutheran HS, TX)
13. Marlins- Nick Pratto, 1B/OF (Huntington Beach HS, CA)
14. Royals- Sam Carlson, RHP (Burnsville HS, MN)
15. Astros- Jake Burger, 3B (Missouri State)
16. Yankees- Griffin Canning, RHP (UCLA)
17. Mariners- Jeren Kendall, OF (Vanderiblt)
18. Tigers- DL Hall, LHP (Valdosta HS, GA)
19. Giants- Brent Rooker, OF (Mississippi State)
20. Mets- Keston Hiura, 2B/OF/DH (UC Irvine)
21. Orioles- Bubba Thompson, OF (M. Thoolen Catholic HS, AL)
22. Blue Jays- Alex Lange, RHP (LSU)
23. Dodgers- Blayne Enlow, RHP (St. Amant HS, LA)
24. Red Sox- Heliot Ramos, OF (Leadership Christian Academy, P.R.)
25. Nationals- Luke Heimlich, LHP (Oregon State)
26. Rangers- Trevor Rogers, LHP (Carlsbad HS, NM)
27. Cubs- Evan White, 1B/OF (Kentucky)
28. Blue Jays- Clarke Schmidt, RHP (South Carolina)
29. Rangers- Logan Warmoth, SS (North Carolina)
30. Cubs- Brendon Little, LHP (State College of Florida)

123 thoughts on “2017 Draft Discussion: Week of May 30th

  1. From David Murphy:

    “Since 2012, the only Phillies draft picks to appear in the majors are Andrew Knapp and Aaron Nola.” Wow.

    “Besides Nola, only one other first-round pick has suited up for the Phillies in the majors since they drafted Cole Hamels in 2002. That was Joe Savery, the 2007 first-rounder who eventually pitched in 41 games in relief over 2011-13.” We’ve missed on every first round pick in the last 15 years except Nola.

    “Besides Nola, the only Phillies first-rounder who has had a modicum of major league success during that stretch is Travis d’Arnaud, who has yet to log 400 plate appearances in a season for the Mets.” Ouch.

    1. I do take exception with this in his article, “Much of this ground is well-trod, in particular the depletion of the minor league talent base from trades for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence.”

      Lee: Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson
      Halladay: Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor
      Oswalt: Anthony Gose, J.A. Happ and Jonathan Villar
      Pence: Jarred Cosart, Jon Singleton, Josh Zeid, Domingo Santana

      The only trade we lost of those four is Pence.

      Carrasco has bloomed, but a handful years after we traded him. Same with Villar.

      d’Arnaud is still active but he’s nothing special. Jarred Cosart flashed for a minute, but we don’t miss him. And Happ is the definition of fungible.

      Domingo Santana is coming along nicely, and could have a good career; he’s still growing into his prime.

      1. I don’t think that was his point, especially since he wrote a follow-up column. Anyone with hindsight can see those trades worked out tremendously for the Phillies.

        I think his point was there wasn’t enough talent beyond those guys when those trades were made; and that’s true.

    2. This goes back to my calling for a new scouting dept. The scouts arent doing there job. Nola for a seventh pick isnt a top of rotation guy. so i really doubt the scouting dept.

      1. not disagreeing, but if you look at all the other pitchers taken after Nola, the only guy who looks to have a chance of being a TOR guy was Jeff Hoffman, who was out with Tommy John and required alot of patience. Had they gone the Cubs college bat philosphy, there was Trea Turner and Conforto sitting there though.

        1. I think, ultimately, if Nola can keep his low-mid 90s velocity, he has a chance to be a very good pitcher – perhaps even a very legit # 2. He has above average velocity, plus movement and potentially plus command. But it might take a few years for him to get there, but I think he could be cornerstone player; we just need to let it play out.

          But the 2014 draft, although it might turn out to be just fine (because of Nola and Hoskins), was a desperation draft where, in a kind of futile effort to either save their jobs or obey some instruction from the team to get players who could contribute right away, the team took 1 high school player in the first 28 picks, which is mind-boggling.

          Hopefully, we are now back to a model where the team generally takes the BPA round after round.

          1. @catch – i remember RAJ impliedly said that they approached the 2014 draft to replenish the barren farm specifically the upper minors. The drafting of Nola and Imhof (both are deemed safe picks and close to the majors) is a testament to that approach.

            1. He may have said it, but it’s kind of a stupid global approach to a draft. Never underestimate the power of rationalizing by a desperate man (and regime).

            2. RAJ was incompetent in general. He was even known as the worst GM at one point. RAJ’s philosophy is short sighted and his last 12 months was the only time in his regime that he exercise foresight.

            3. Catch and Kurt, I am making Ruben look good with my poor off season acquisitions and the slow development of our young players. Can you guys stop beating up my predecessor and focus on the real problem which is ownership(current and old).

        2. Confirmation went to Oregon state , so the Phillies one year after turning a in a draft pick from Oregon state to the NCAA and making him sit out a year then take a guy who might have given the middle finger and played his senior year at college, but that opens a whole other what if the filling year we would have gotten two picks, and from there let your imaginatiom run wild

      2. Nola wasn’t ever touted as a top of the rotation guy, they took him because he was close to MLB ready (he could’ve gone right into a rotation as a #5 guy.

    3. The since 2012 statement is a bit misleading. I looked up Boston and since 2012 they have “only” had 4 players appear in the majors and of those, Benintendi is the only one who’s not a negative WAR player.

      Cubs have had 5 with Bryant and Schwarber being the biggest successes.

      Astros have had 5 with Bregman being the only Plus WAR player..

      Phillies have actually had 3. Nola, Knapp, and Leiter. I would also say that declaring misses for Crawford, Randolph, and Moniak is a bit premature..

      This does NOT mean the Phillies have done a good job in the draft, especially with recent 1st round picks. Just noting that the premise of the article is a bit misleading..

      1. Very good point. Murphy’s statement about Phillies draft picks since 2012 needs context. Just placed in a vacuum, it seems worse than it really is.

        The more damning statement is the repeated whiffs on first round picks since Hamels in 2002. Though I agree its too early to include Crawford, Randolph, and Moniak in that group. And a couple of those picks (e.g., Anthony Hewitt, Larry Greene Jr) make you really wonder – the scouts were apparently so infatuated with tools that basic bat-on-ball contact skills were overlooked.

      2. Let me ask you a few questions. One who the hell cares what another teams does. And by the way cubs are great and have won a championship,how many has boston won. since then? You mention the guys we have drafted how about the latin players the other teams have? Stop making excuses for a bad scouting dept. The three players you list for phillies is okay until you mention leiter. who stinks really has nothing.

        1. I don’t know, maybe for some perspective?

          Why do you keep referring to other teams Latin players if no one cares what the hell another team does?

    4. Mark Leiter.

      And really. How old are people drafted in, say, 2014, 2015 and 2016?

      The “facts” that Murphy is quoting are severely limited in meaning.

      1. Sure – but 2002 to 2014 is 12 years… The only facet of our entire organization that is definitively above league average is our latin american scouts.

        It’s been this way for the last 30+ years.

        1. Yes, they were so bad it’s a miracle they build the teams from 2005 though 2011 with draft choices. There have been period when they were really bad, but also some good periods. I don’t hang out here so I I have to ask, are you always this negative?

          1. The thing is – you can’t judge a scouting group based on “short periods of success” purely due to small sample size and the relative rarity of hitting on an MLB prospect. Looking back at the last 30 years is probably more indicative of reality then saying “Look who they drafted leading up to 2008, they must have great scouts!”

            As to your last comment… I’ve been here on phuturephillies for like 8 or so years now.

            Over that period of time I’ve had periods of incredible positivism, irrational exuberance and pleasantness. Historically I’ve actually been “too optimistic”, I’m the guy who thought that older AA masher was going to be a top 50 MLB player, or that pitcher in A+ was going to be an ace. Some what of a homer as surely many of us are.

            At this point in time, yes I am lower on this team now then I’ve been since I joined PP, but frankly, it’s well deserved.

      2. More
        #Phillies have tied a franchise record for worst 50-game start in the Expansion Era (since 1961).

        They’re 17-33, on pace to win 55 game enough said

        1. rocco…remember ’72? Carlton with 27 and the Phillies with a total of 59. Pretty young team then also…Bowa, Bull, Boone, Schimdtty in September,
          We have to wait them out.

    5. For all of you complaining about the drafts from 2012 to 2014, you should do some research before you spout off about your knowledge. If we take 2010 to 2014 and just look at the first round of ALL TEAMS including the conditional picks, perhaps 20% of those 160+ players are in the ML and someone you may say, I wish we had picked them, 30 % have had a cup of coffee and 50 % haven’t even sniffed the ML. That’s 32 players out of the 1st round and most of them were in the top 10. If they were a HS player, it’s less. In 2010 13 out of 50 HS players have had a cup of coffee with Manny Machado being the HS Star of the draft, Harper was number 1. 2011 14 of the 51 1st rounders who were HS have had a cup of coffee, Anthony Rendon is the Star, 2012 19 of 50 HS COC, Corey Seager, Dahl and Correa (#1) all having impact, 2013 – JP Crawford, NOT ONE HS player from the 1st round has yet to make an impact, Kris Bryant was College, 2014 11 out of 50 have had a COC, four players of any significance, Aaron Nola and Micheal Conforto, Schwaber and trea Turner, all college, 2015 5/50, those 5 from the top 9 picks, none from HS, Alex Bergman, #2, the only one significant. BASEBALL is a marathon and when you have purged your farm, drafted poorly and signed bad contracts, it takes years to right the ship. The new GM and new President did not create this mess. they inherited a team when impact FA’s do not exist and have made impact trades, and, we hope a decent first draft where their was no Kris Bryant or Harper. Will we have a decent 2017 draft, who knows and we won’t see immpact before 2020 in all likely hood from 2017.

  2. I want Beck in round one if available though I also like Jake Burger , and Adam Haseley. Would love to get one of Jeter Downs (HS SS) good fielding SS that is a line drive hitter with developing power and a good approach, Stuart Fairchild (Wake Forest OF) good defender in center with speed and hits for power 13 HRs this year some concern from a K/W ratio from cape league but had a great college season (13 HR 16 steals 350/430/602 26 W 46 K 226 AB),

  3. I want beck based on what i have read. But one comment from yesterday, he struggled in wood bat league bothers me.

  4. Report out of Macon GA paper has the Braves seriously considering Beck at 1-5. The consensus top 5 players which I’ve seen consistently in mocks thus far are Wright, McKay, Greene, Gore, and Lewis. If Atlanta does take Beck and these other top 5 make up the top 6 picks, I doubt the DBacks would take a 1b so Pavin Smith would be there for us at 1-8. If not, I would take Beck if he’s still there. Baz would be my 3rd choice at 8 if Smith and Beck were gone, although I prefer not to take a HS arm. His upside yells ACE but risky. Burger is another intriguing bat I wouldn’t complain about but we shouldn’t have to him that high what with these others likely to be still on the board. Pratto would be my 5th in preference but again, something went wrong if neither Smith, Beck or Baz aren’t there….or should I say, something went right. Just hope Matt & Co are taking their fish oil supplements.

  5. Best palyer available is Mariano Ofarrrill. He is a cuban national that was cleared by MLB 2 weeks ago. I personally saw this guy throw and his fastball sat 95-96 with movement. He throws 3 plus secondary pitches in his changeup slider curveball. The guy is 23 years old 6’4″ 220. Looks a little like el duque orlando hernandez.

  6. Keith Law just posted a mock that have us taking Beck: http://klaw.me/2rfDkiH

    I am definitely a bpa guy…but I would find it odd to take HS OF’ers three years in a row by a GM that says “you grow the arms and buy the bats.”

    1. Keith Law seems to be all over the place in his mocks.
      First…do not understand his rationale on why Atlanta would take Lewis?
      Dansby is already there for the next 8 years I presume, then there is there number one signee from the J2-’16 LA market, Kevin Maitan, with Albies now moved to 2nd, Then there wa their $2M signee from the J2-’15 international market Derian Cruz….yet another shortstop with Roman Quinn speed.
      I guess Law is covering all his bases.

      1. BPA. Atlanta can always trade one or multiples of those guys for a front line starter (like a Chris Archer who they were rumored to be chasing this off season).

        1. BPA…..is really a well-worn BS phrase, .that is philosophy that only works late in the selection process in the first round….but when drafting that high there is no such animal….how do you determine BPA between Greene/McKay/ Lewis/ et al? At number 5 no less.

          1. The only reason I said BPA was because Lewis is part of the consensus top 5 draft prospects this year and he would be the last one available for Atlanta in Keith’s scenario. I’m sure they’d prefer to come away with Gore.

            Keep in mind, Law sees Lewis as an outfielder; not a short stop.

            I don’t disagree with you, that it’s a fairly over used statement. I really don’t know who the best player in the draft is this year, we’ll only know in hindsight.

            1. JL26….not trying to get on you….but agree that trying to figure out the best player available is lot easier said than done.
              The Phillies for a decade or so between drafts 2003 and 2012…with JPC at 16 in’13….were drafting either in the 20s or later. So they decided to go with what some say was ‘the best athlete possible’ with no success.

    2. It seems like they’re trying to minimize risk with their #1 picks. Drafting as high as they are, I don’t blame them. The last thing they need to do is reach for a prep arm or a low ceiling college arm.

  7. I still believe that OAK will draft Pavin Smith. The only reasonable scenario i can think is ATL draft Becks and Kyle Wright is available at 1.6 for OAK since ARI will probably pass on a 1B prospect. Then Smith is available at 1.8 for the Phils.

    Haseley is a good pick at 1.8 as fallback option.

  8. Everyone is looking forward…but let’s look back for a moment

    I was pounding the keyboard last year for AJ Puk. it became apparent about a week or so before the draft that Puk was not going to be the pick.

    I do like Moniak. He’s holding his own in the SAL which is nice for an 18/19 year old.

    However Puk is in the California League (high A league—equivalent to Clearwater Threshers in Phillies system) and is doing this:

    44 IP 29 H 20 BB 69 K 1 HR .179 BAA 1.10 WHIP

    I’m feeling a tiny twinge of buyer’s remorse

    1. Puk is what, 3 years older and 1 level higher?

      Also, his biggest question going into the draft was control and he’s averaging 4.0 BB/9. All of his other numbers look good but I’d expect a college pitcher to put up good numbers in A-ball…

      1. 3 years older, 1 level higher and putting up great numbers, compared to Moniak’s pedestrian numbers.

        you glossed over the 13.9 K/9, and only 29 hits and 1 HR in 44 Innings. You expect a college pitcher to put up numbers like that in the florida state league? Or you hope they put numbers like that up? Thats some unreasonably high expectations for a college pitch to say you expect 13.9 K/9 and only 29 hits in 44 innings.

        But I understand you are just trying to make an argument for Moniak, no matter how tenuous it is….

        1. Really, a 22 year old college pitcher that was potentially the #1 overall pick in the draft shouldn’t be dominating A-ball hitters? Yes, he has very impressive strikeout and hit numbers in limited innings. But the question about him coming into the draft was his control, not his ability to strike-out hitters..

          As for other high pick pitchers from major programs:

          Carson Fulmer, the College pitcher taken from Vanderbilt at #8 in 2015 is in the Majors already

          Aaron Nola was taken #7 by the Phillies in 2014 went to Reading his first year.

          Kevin Gausman #4 in 2012 was in the majors in 2013

          But I do agree that Puk is off to a better start than 2013 #1 overall college pitcher Mark Appel

      2. He’s also struggling to get through 5 innings. He’s probably a reliever (and a good one) long term.

        1. That (pitching only about half the game) was maybe the biggest question about Puk. Of course, that is related to the control and number of pitches thrown. Bottom line, Puk probably ends up a reliever (albeit a very good one), and no one really wants to draft a reliever at 1:1.

  9. Lewis has only played SS this season. He played 3B the previous three years (his HS had Chase Strumpf — currently UCLA’s SS — a class ahead of him). No one thinks he’s a SS in the pros. So I doubt Atlanta is worried about his position.

  10. A report out of Minnesota says that the Twins are leaning toward Wright. If that’s true, then I think a reasonable mock draft would be:
    1. Twins–Wright
    2. Reds–McKay
    3. Padres–Greene
    4. Rays–Gore
    5. Braves–Beck
    6. Athletics–Bukauskas (or Smith)
    7. Diamondbacks–Lewis
    8. Phillies–Smith (or Bukauskas)

    1. I can definitely see this happening. McKay seems to be the consensus; however, Wright wouldn’t be a bad choice. Baseball America had Austin Beck going 26th to the Rangers…There’s no way he falls that far lol

      1. There was a time earlier in the season when Wright was struggling that many mocks projected him to go to the Phillies lol If only. But you’re right, Beck won’t fall that far. In fact, the Phillies might take him if he falls to them. I really think it’d be between Beck, Baz, or Smith at this point. I know I wrote Bukausas above as their plan B, but that was only because I think they could really use a high caliber SP who can help them sooner rather than later. But, if Baz’s secondary stuff is the real deal, then he could potentially be at CBP sooner rather than later.

  11. Twins – Kyle Wright rhp
    Reds – Royse Lewis of
    Padres – Hunter Greene ss
    Rays – Brendan McKay 1b/p
    Braves – Austin Beck of
    A’s – MacKenzie Gore lhp
    DBacks – JB Bukauskas
    Phillies – Pavin Smith 1b

    This is about the time we start sniffing out the likelies. Negotiations over slot bonus figures begin real soon if not already. We had a pretty good idea we were taking Moniak at least a week before the draft. Stay tuned!

    1. 8mark……my system/keyboard screwed up the whole text.
      8 equals $4.5M…and 45 at $1.5M

    2. A few recent mocks have Royce Lewis is dropping a little bit. There are some worries about his hit tool apparently.

        1. KuKo….if they do it. will be the second year in a row they went for a southern California HS kid. Some reports on his arm strength suggest a switch to CF or possibly 2nd base. MLB.com has hi rated as 50, which could also mean with a little more strength he will be able to handle the throws. Plus like Moniak he has age on his side….him with Greene and Baz are some of the younger HSers on this draft board

          1. i view MickeyMo as the better hitter between the 2, but I love the projection for that age along with potential plus in 4-tools and the flexibility to play in the middle of the diamond as 2B-SS-CF.

            I think Baz can be had at 1.8, although my “dream” draftee is McKenzie Gore at 1.8, which unfortunately have a 0% chance of happening.

  12. It’s insane just how bad MLB teams are at identifying talent…. going back in time, it seems between 3 and 7 first round draft picks make it to the AS game at least once in their careers. So just to put that into perspective. 30 selections – between 15% or so evolve into average or worse players (a player who only has a single AS selection over their career was probably just an above average player).

    What’s even more interesting – if you look at the 1/1 pick only – the hit rate is much better, about 66% or so in the last 15 or so years.

    Does anyone have a breakdown of mlb “WAR” by draft slot over say the last 25 years?

    1. MLB in general is a crap shoots, thus, the 40 rounds. If teams can develop at least 2 average regular MLB players out of a draft — that’s a good draft and if teams can come up with all-stars — that’s a successful draft and with a transcendent player like Trout — that’s success for the whole team including both the scouting and player development teams.

    2. Your choice of words reflects an interesting perspective. Why choose “how bad MLB teams are …” rather than, “how hard it is to identify talent?” Saying “how bad…” implies that it is reasonable to expect better. The history, on the other hand, suggests that is is extremely difficult to look that far into the future.

  13. WAR for 8th overall pick in draft history…Todd Helton leads the list at 61WAR.
    Dick Ruthven and Pete Incaviglia are in the top 15

      1. Yep…..hopefully not JJ Davis or Ed Kurpiel…the other two first basemen at the 8th pick.

  14. From Frankie Piliere (D1 Baseball.com):

    Q: Who are the Phillies most likely to pick at 1-8?

    Frankie Piliere:
    Pavin Smith, Shane Baz, Austin Beck. I’ve heard Haseley a lot with them lately. That would make a lot of sense to me. I’ve heard Faedo but that would be very surprising to me. Bukauskas would not get by them.

    Pilliere is pretty tuned in to the draft. Glad to hear he feels Phillies would not be in on Faedo.

  15. I was just listening on Howard Eskin on wip. He said scouts have told him alfaro will never be a catcher in majors. Cant catch 10 passed balls, 3 walks 50 strikeouts. Also he said he was a big matt k fan. but not now matt refuses to send down obbie cause of stats like velocity of ball off his bat his defense. The man listen stats as reason to keep him up. Which is nut imo

      1. How Eskin lasted this long in the local market boggles the mind. Nobody likes him and he’s infamous for misconstrueing the inside scoops he gets from his sources, who probably don’t like him either. He’s the little kid who brought the ball but couldn’t play the game, so he tries to convince people he knows more than anybody else.

        Off topic, I know. Sorry, but I’m tired of the superficial media types who look only at the surface of things and don’t bother to do their own homework.

        1. Eskin is good at what he does, which is stirring up his audience on WIP. He keeps them listening which is all the station really cares about.

          Look up negadelphia in the urban dictionary and his picture will be there.

    1. That guy is an idiot. Alfaro is going to be a big league catcher. His tools clearly speak for themselves

  16. 8mark. Personally i dont like him. but I believe he did talk to scouts about alfaro. What he is reporting i believe is true. like it or not. JUST HE FACTS.

    1. I’m sure he’s talked to scouts about Alfaro, I just doubt that all scouts have the same opinion.

      I do agree that Alfaro’s lack of walks could be an issue moving forward but if he hits .280 with power like he’s doing in AAA, it wont be. On the defensive site, most accounts are that his defense has improved but is still a work in progress..

      1. I was hoping to see more power from Alfaro by now. He can barrel pitches well but is more of a line drive hitter. His K’s bother me more than lack of BBs, especially if he’s not going yard regularly. Still, his upside is considerable. Plus it’s commonly held that catchers typically take longer to develop. However, his arm alone deters opposing runners from even attempting to steal bases.

        1. Alfaro is not a home run hitter. You call a guy a home run hitter based on how many homers he hits, not based on how far a homer goes when he hits one.

          Alfaro hit 15 homes at Reading last year while Cozens had 40 and Hoskins 38. Kingery ALREADY has 16 at Reading and Pullin has 11. Alfaro has all of three homers at LHV. I don’t care how far he hits them just how many he hits.

  17. Summary of Mock 3.0 that I released on Memorial Day. I will be releasing one more on June 5th and that’s all she wrote, until June 12th, Draft day.

    1. Twins- Brendan McKay LHP/1B (University of Louisville)
    2. Reds- Kyle Wright, RHP (Vanderbilt)
    3. Padres- Hunter Greene RHP/SS (Notre Dame HS, CA)
    4. Rays- Royce Lewis, SS/OF (JSerra Catholic HS, CA)
    5. Braves- MacKenize Gore, LHP (Whiteville HS, NC)
    6. A’s- Pavin Smith, 1B (University of Virginia)
    7. D’Backs- J.B. Bukauskas, RHP (North Carolina)
    8. Phillies- Austin Beck, OF (N. Davidson HS, NC)
    9. Brewers- Alex Faedo, RHP (Florida)
    10. Angels- Adam Haseley, OF (University of Virginia)
    11. White Sox- Jordon Adell, OF (Ballard HS, KY)
    12. Pirates- Shane Baz, RHP (Concordia Lutheran HS, TX)
    13. Marlins- Nick Pratto, 1B/OF (Huntington Beach HS, CA)
    14. Royals- Sam Carlson, RHP (Burnsville HS, MN)
    15. Astros- Brent Rooker, OF (Mississippi State)
    16. Yankees- Griffin Canning, RHP (UCLA)
    17. Mariners- Jeren Kendall, OF (Vanderbilt)
    18. Tigers- DL Hall, LHP (Valdosta HS, GA)
    19. Giants- Jake Burger, 3B (Missouri State)
    20. Mets- David Peterson, LHP (Oregon)
    21. Orioles- Bubba Thompson, OF (M. Thoolen Catholic HS, AL)
    22. Blue Jays- Alex Lange, RHP (LSU)
    23. Dodgers- Blayne Enlow, RHP (St. Amant HS, LA)
    24. Red Sox- Heliot Ramos, OF (Leadership Christian Academy, P.R.)
    25. Nationals- Luke Heimlich, LHP (Oregon State)
    26. Rangers- Trevor Rogers, LHP (Carlsbad HS, NM)
    27. Cubs- Keston Hiura, 2B/OF/DH (UC Irvine)
    28. Blue Jays- Clarke Schmidt, RHP (South Carolina)
    29. Rangers- Logan Warmoth, SS (North Carolina)
    30. Cubs- Evan White, 1B/OF (Kentucky)

    1. You bumped up HSer tall LHP Trevor Rogers!
      I had saw some listing him in the high 30s…was hoping he would fall to 45.

      1. Some have Rogers going as hiigh as 12th overall. I don’t see that considering there are guys ahead of him on the pecking order: Gore, Baz, Carlson, etc. I am a big Rogers fan, though

  18. Bleacher Reports mock draft out yesterday has Phils taking Pavin Smith with Beck dropping to NYY at 1-16. Baz didn’t appear in their 1st round. Odd.

    1. A “did you know” Cody Bellinger was drafted in the 4th round in 2013

      Under Colletti the Dodgers had some really nice drafts and LA signs…just sayin

      1. Some people believe if Baz isn’t picked in the top 10, he may have a very over-slot deal with a team in the sandwich or second round. That would be the reason he wouldn’t be a first round pick. When it comes to the draft, signability plays a major role in where some guys get picked.

    2. I doubt if Smith is available. If he is, the Phillies should be all in. He has more home runs than strikeouts. You don’t see that everyday

  19. mlb.com has the Phillies picking Haseley.

    1. Twins: Kyle Wright

    2. Reds: Hunter Greene

    3. Padres: Royce Lewis

    4. Rays: Brendan McKay

    5. Braves: MacKenzie Gore

    6. Athletics: Pavin Smith

    7. D-backs: J.B. Bukauskas

    8. Phillies: Adam Haseley

    1. I can definitely see the Phillies why they would be all in on Haseley. His draft stock soared through the roof with his amazing showing this year. I just see Beck as a better option due to an immense ceiling. Haseley is no slouch, a player like Haseley isn’t the Phillies’ style

    1. Wow, Hinkie. That would be a telling sign that the FO is willing to go get a big fish. This is what makes the mlb draft so unique. The slot bonus negotiations and 40 rounds essentially of lottery picks.

        1. Not sure who is representing McKay.
          BTW … one thing about Frankie Piliere’s tweet … he mistakenly has the Phillies picking before the DBacks. The Phillies’ 1-8 slot is valued at 4.78 million dollars. The DBacks’ 1-7 slot is valued at 5.016 million dollars.

          1. Hinkie, do you think there is any traction to it? The lowest I’ve seen McKay on any mocks is 1-4 (Rays). I still want Pavin’s hit tool in the organization but the Phillies need to come away with a solid safe pick, overslot or not.

            1. 8mark…more and more I think about it, the Phillies may go with a pitcher like Faedo or JB Buakus/Baz if they are there.
              I think Matt Klentak wants to avoid a cluster f__k between OFers and 1st basemen in the system at the higher levels and forced to have to sell low on prospects…Smith would probably be ready for the majors in August 2018 if he follows the Conforto/Bentendi time table.
              I rather he choose Smith and make him a corner OFer from the jump street.

            2. @romus – i don’t see the Phils signing Faedo unless it is for a significant discount and they might balk on JB. I can see Baz or any a bat being the BPA on the Phils list at 1.8 unless the following are available – Greene, McKay, Wright, Lewis, Gore, Smith – and I’m leaning towards Baz, then Beck, then Haseley. The Phils will draft one of the names i enumerated at 1.8.

            3. Doesn’t JB project to be a back of the bullpen arm? Who was the last closer picked high in the first round?

            4. 8mark….not sure I have read that anywhere about JB Bukauskas 
              MLB Pipeline gives him two plus-plus grades on his pitches. He has a 70-grade fastball that he not only consistently fires over the plate in the mid-90s but also commands well with the added bonus of sinking action. His 60-grade slider also moves well. The earlier reports of inconsistencies with the pitch seem to be quickly erasing themselves. Also understand his cu showed much improvement this past summer and continues to do so this spring.
              So not sure reliever will initially be his direction.
              He does lack the height of most RHPs…he is about 6′ so that could be a factor down the road.

            5. Kuko…..if the Phillies select Faedo, I could understand the reasoning behind it, but would be a little disappointed that a bat was not selected.
              Especially if Smith and even Beck are still on the board.

  20. 8mark, Tyler Jay was a closer picked #6 in 2015 that twins were trying to convert to starter and Carson Fulmer at #8 still could end up there,

    1. JB Bukaukas has not been used in relief in three years in college…40 games …40 starts.
      He may end up relieving in 4/5 years but I think he gets drafted as a starter by a team.

    1. 1st round so far:

      1) Minnesota Twins Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
      2) Cincinnati Reds Hunter Greene, RHP, California HS
      3) San Diego Padres Brendan McKay, LHP-1B, Louisville
      4) Tampa Bay Rays Austin Beck, OF, North Carolina HS
      5) Atlanta Braves MacKenzie Gore, LHP, North Carolina HS
      6) Oakland Athletics Royce Lewis, SS,
      7) Arizona Diamondbacks, JB Bukauskas, RHP, UNC
      8) Philadelphia Phillies, Pavin Smith, 1B, UVA
      9) Milwaukee Brewers, Adam Haseley, CF, UVA
      10) LA Angels, Jo Adell, OF

        1. I just listened to Eric Longenhagen on The Felske Files http://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/6/1/15726364/trust-the-prospects-the-phillies-process. He is absolutely against Pavin Smith (or any college 1Bman in general) being picked that high in the draft. Longenhagen has heard Phillies are looking at college players. They sent four or five representatives (including Charlie Manuel and Johnny Almarez) to the ACC tournament to see McKay, Bukauskas, Logan Warmoth, Haseley, and Smith. He also said Klentak has been to Virginia to see Hasely and Smith. Longenhagen suggests the Phillies (if they want a college player) ought to consider David Peterson or Keston Huira.

          For me, it’s still:
          1A. PavinSmith
          1B. Shane Baz

          1. I assume they may feel Smith may only be a strict first baseman and may pass on him……Hasely as an OFer could be what they may desire.
            But Peterson would be ideal also and under slot I assume.
            Huira has an excellent hit tool….but smallish with limited power.
            They will have choices for sure.

  21. Clemson vs Vanderbilt on ESPN 2 right now. Vanderbilt features Jeren Kendall. Clemson starts Seth Beer (potential 1-1 for 2018) and Logan Davidson (Phillies 30th round draft pick and probable top 10 for 2019).

  22. round 2. give me one the following HS bats. Drew Waters, Randy Vilade, Garrett Mitchell

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