Open Discussion: Week of March 13th

The Phillies split six games this past week in Florida.  After seventeen games, the Phillies have an 8-7-2 Grapefruit League record.  But, record isn’t a legitimate indicator to measure the team’s progress.  After all, the Phillies posted a National League third best 15-11-3 record last spring and still managed to finish 20 games under .500 during the regular season.

By the same argument, the slash the Phillies have put up this spring is also not an accurate indicator.  A good portion of their production has been contributed by players who will be in AAA, AA, or out of the organization when regular season games start.  Last week, I reported that the Phillies had a middle of the pack team batting slash of .260/.335/.444/.779 (18th/18th/13th/15th).  This week they have a similar but dropping .257/.342/.412/.754 (20th/9th/21st/19th).

The slash of the players expected to make the 25-man roster might provide some insight into any offensive improvement and what we can expect this season.  The projected starters are Rupp, Joseph, Hernandez, Galvis, Franco, Hendrick, Herrera, and Saunders. Add bench locks Blanco and Altherr, expected backup catcher Knapp, and an additional middle infielder and outfielder (Valentin and Williams for this exercise since they have the best slashes of the players on the 40-man roster).  So far this spring, these 13 players a .232/.293/.378/.671.

But a more disturbing development is that the projected starting line up has a slash of .222/.269/.367/.636.

Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.

Key dates remaining during the off season:

  • Grapefruit League games thru 3/31.  Schedule here.
  • 3/6-22 – World Baseball Classic.
  • 4/2-3 – Opening Night/Opening Day.

Extra Innings

The first “cuts” were made after Sunday’s game.  The Phillies reassigned the following players to minor league camp – Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery, Chace Numata, and Andrew Pullin.  Pullin hasn’t been on the field since February 27th and is rumored to have an oblique strain.

(More options/reassignments: RHP Drew Anderson, OF Dylan Cozens, LHP Elniery Garcia, RHP Alberto Tirado, RHP Victor Arano, RHP Mark Appel, RHP Ricardo Pinto, and RHP Nick Pivetta.  I think that leaves 50 in major league camp.)

The Phillies traded Joey Curletta (the PTBNL in the Ruiz trade) to Seattle for switch-pitcher Pat Venditte.  He will join the Phillies as an NRI when Italy is done in the WBC.

The Phillies signed a couple of 17-year old free agents RHP Jose Conopoima and C Freddy Barreto, and a 29-year old free agent LHP Jhordany Mezquita to a minor league contracts.  Mezquita has no prior major or minor league stats.

WBC

I’m not a fan of the WBC.  For many reasons.  But I did DVR Italy’s and Columbia’s games to get a look at Nick Fanti and Jorge Alfaro.

Fanti pitched an inning today.  He allowed 2 ground ball singles and struck out T.J. Rivera who batted .333 in 33 games and 105 AB with the Mets in 2016.  I got this head shot of Nick as he left the field after Italy’s on field celebration after scoring 5 runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat Venezuela.

Alfaro went 3-12 in 3 games.  His HR in the 8th inning against the Dominican Republic tied the score.  He celebrated his HR of Fernando Rodney by shooting an arrow as he neared the dugout.  Just prior to this photo he drew an arrow from his imaginary quiver.

Cumulative transactions: 

  • 3/12 – Phillies reassigned Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery, Chace Numata, and Andrew Pullin to minor league camp.
  • 3/12 – Phillies traded RF Joey Curletta to Seattle Mariners for Pat Venditte.
  • 3/7 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Jose Conopoima to a minor league contract.
  • 3/7 – Phillies signed free agent C Freddy Barreto to a minor league contract.
  • 3/1 – Phillies signed free agent LHP Jhordany Mezquita to a minor league contract.
  • 2016 15th round pick, Alex Wojciechowski, reported to minor league spring training.
  • The organization rosters are up to date.

96 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of March 13th

    1. It wasn’t a projection of the team; he’s showing that if you take the spring stats of who could be on the 25 man roster, the best case scenario is still a bad slash line.

    2. I wasn’t trying to forecast the 25-man. I just picked out some representative numbers of the type of guys likely to make the 25 and opted to use a middle infielder and outfielder already on the 40.

      But, no. I do not think a player who is primarily a first baseman will receive much consideration for a bench job. Especially when it will require a 40 man roster transaction. Personally, I think they would prefer Coghlan’s flexibility and recent championship pedigree. But projecting him into this exercise would have driven the team slash down even further.

      Ironically, Coghlan’s making the 25 would make selecting Stassi slightly more palatable, but I can’t envision the Phillies making two 40 man transactions at this time.

    3. Rob , I wanna see Stassi get his shot but the glut of young kids on the 40 who aren’t playing for the Phillies and need to be protected probably elimate Stassi but he is worthy of a cup of coffee or a few after what he has done throughout his minor league career and this spring training
      Go Stassi, plus he has the same name as the East German communist police

  1. Nava looks pretty good right now, SSS and all. Starting pitching has not been very good or even stable. I’m not concerned because everyone on the staff is trying new pitches and approaches. Do them now and take what works and move forward.

    I have a college roommate who has been needling me about the Red Sox going all the way this year. I’ve been channeling the 2011 Phillies and saying it’s 162 games to get to the playoffs but one series against a very hot team can send you home short of your goal.

    1. Good game yesterday but haven’t heard much talk supporting his chances of making the 25man and I believe a decision is due on him later this spring.

  2. Pullin took bp each day this weekend and looked fine so he must be feeling better. Perkins obviously is not on the 40 but is certainly in the discussion to grab one of two spots on the 25 along with Stassi, Nava, Coghlan, and Valentin. Knapp should beat out Hanigan and Holaday because he’s on the 40 but he wouldn’t if it was purely on performance. Also, I saw Tirado pitch at the complex yesterday morning and I see the appeal but he’s far from ready. He could be a 40 decision also because he would be hard to keep on a 25 all season.

    1. Yeah, I meant Williams not Perkins. Their numbers were similar and I copied and pasted the wrong line. Not that I’m projecting Williams on the 25, just wanted his numbers for this exercise.

    2. I think Knapp is going to be the backup because he has nothing else to prove at AAA.

      I’m calling Altherr and Nava for the OF bench, and Blanco and Stassi for the IF bench.

      Corresponding players dropped form the 40 man: Luis Garcia, Tyler Goeddel

      1. @guru – i agree with what you said except for Nava who i think will be Coghlan due to position flexibility.

  3. I’m dreaming on Shohei Otani and our 1st pick college arm in the rotation together sometime in ’18.

    Speaking of young arms, I wasn’t impressed even a little bit by Lively yesterday. Seen very little of him myself. Was it just a bad day? His ball was up A LOT.

    1. 8mark…dreaming on Otani is a good thing, however, it seems the Padres are also dreaming and doing a little more… they may have an in.
      Seems they established a position in their baseball operations…. .Director, Applied Sports Science…and hired Japanese native Seiichiro Nakagaki, who happens to know a little about Shohei Otani, from what I read , on a personal level.
      So do not undersell AJ Preller and his plans..

      1. To dream the impossible dream. This is romus quest to think the phillies will get Otani. no matter how expensive he is. TO dream the impossible dream

      2. Too bad for the Padres they overspent on Adrian Morejon, Luis Almanzor, and many others in 2016. Preller’s Padres are in the penalty box for 2017.
        My idea (I proposed after new CBA made it mandatory for MLB clubs to make available a clubhouse chef) is for the Phillies to hire Iron Chef Masaharu Morimoto to be the Phillies Director of Clubhouse Food Services !!!

  4. I was down there last week, Tuesday through Friday. I came away with a few impressions. One, Darick Hall and Jose Pujols have ridiculous power. I suspect that Hall is the better hitter as Pujols’ swing seemed long to me. Two, the Phils offense consistency is still troublesome. I know it’s spring training but the squad had a hard time scoring runs from game to game. They were great at Lakeland and struggled at home. Kingery looks like a real prospect and Quinn is so freakin fast. Three, pitching is still a work in progress. No one stood out during any game though it was nice to see the guys at least get their requisite innings. Four, as a fan of the young kids, I wish I was down a week earlier when they were playing more frequently.

  5. Nick Williams having an outstanding ST..a HR to LF today…..though SSS with 23 PAs.
    Hopefully this is a projection of things to come this season at LHV

    1. Was at today’s game. I told my wife she may have witnessed a first … Nick Williams walked twice. Brock Stassi may be forcing his way onto the squad. Roman Quinn looked great, too. We met Quinn after the game. Really nice kid.

      1. Did you see…Williams also hit the ball hard for his outs. He is also having a good spring. Though he did have two games last year, where he walked twice in one game, and believe it or not, three times in the other game and not one intentional.

  6. Dang. I would like Knapp to make it, but I think one of the NRI catchers will make it instead. Performance has got to mean something, especially for a guy without a record in the major leagues.

    1. I’m getting a bit worried about Knapp too. Although I do think he is probably being judged more on his defense than his offense down there. If they believe he can handle things behind the dish, they might be more patient with his bat. But yeah, solely on plate performance the veterans are killing him right now.

      1. Knapp should be the back up at the ML level. I don’t think they send Knapp down to back up Alfaro (pointless) and I don’t see them splitting time bc they won’t want any regression or stall in Alfaro’s defensive development (he’s make great strides here, outside of his arm which has always been Plus Plus). It will be interesting to see what happens if come June 1st Alfaro is producing at LHV.

          1. To Knapp’s credit, he’s soared through the org, and catchers develop slower than other positions. If we can give Franco a year, we can give Knapp at least one also.

        1. His defense at 1b has not been great. Last Thursday his made three mistakes…dropped a pop up, misplayed a grounder, and another miscue. I hope he makes the 25 but his ability to be an adequate replacement at 1b is going to be a determining factor. And, he got to hit better this spring.

    2. This team is not trying to make the playoffs, Knapp will make the team even though he doesn’t earn it. Circumstances are in his favor. I think Valentin will make it and one of Nava, Stassi, and Coghlan and I’m pulling for Stassi obviously. I also predict Tirado is the next guy off the 40

  7. I enjoy following all our hopefuls… I am following Valentin who is a guy somewhat under the radar. I would be surprised to see him make the 25 out of ST. I think he’ll play 2nd base at LV until the front office believes that Kingery can move up to LV to be with Crawford for a while.. Until then, Valentin can refine his offense….keeping in mind that a bench player who can play 2b well, and SS plus 3b if necessary for awhile. I see him as a superb bench-man who will get his share of ABs over a season and has the capability of aid to the regulars.

    1. Agree…Valentin to LHV for a few months….he only has 123 PAs in AAA level to date and 175/200 or so more may be beneficial to him.
      And then there is that business side of baseball., especially for a team that is not projected to contend….his service time starts a little later.
      What would be a shame if the Phillies decide his future role is already a utility guy and move him to another team…..I would hate to see another Jonathan Vuillar situation occur….since Villar was almost an after thought in that trade with Houston 6/7 years ago.

      1. Service time? No one cares about Valentin’s service time clock. I do believe that his upside is as a utility guy and I think they should move him there asap. They already believe in Kingery and will push him up to LHV mid season if he does well at Reading. As for Villar, he had a very good year before he was traded and was thought to be a future major league SS due to his crazy strong arm and great speed. He was legit at Lakewood.

        1. Murray how many times have you seen Valentin play? You label him as a utility guy, Just wonder how you came to that opinion,

          1. It’s not what I think, it’s what the Phillies think, and they think Kingery is their future 2B. By process of elimination, that leaves Valentin as a Utility guy, IF he can play an adequate SS. That is yet to be proven.

            1. I don’t know that you can label Valentin a utility guy yet (former 1st round pick or supp 1st), just like you can’t say Kingery is the 2B of the future, I think Hernandez would have something to say about that.

    1. Phillies had both of them taking reps at short….along with Valentin…and all three would be exposed over a long period of time there.
      I suspect the Phillies are hoping it is only a three month interim basis for Galvis/Blanco/Hernandez or even Valentin as shortstops, and JPC comes forward in June or July.

      1. Perhaps, although they will not rush JPC just because they need two guys who can play SS at MLB level. Beyond one game or even just a couple innings, I don’t believe any of Blanco/Hernandez/Valentin can be a good enough shortstop. They will have to carry one of the NRIs to backup at short.

        1. Agreed, they’ll keep Florimon at LHV for just such an emergency but I think they’ll just play Valentin or Cesar at SS for a short period of time. This team is not playing for a playoff spot so their decisions will be about player retention while winning games not just winning games.

  8. More options/reassignments: RHP Drew Anderson, OF Dylan Cozens, LHP Elniery Garcia, RHP Alberto Tirado, RHP Victor Arano, RHP Mark Appel, RHP Ricardo Pinto, and RHP Nick Pivetta. I think that leaves 50 in major league camp as of Tuesday noon.

  9. I’m honestly surprised I haven’t seen anything about Quinn yet this week on the open discussion…I think Roman Quinn should be the opening day starting CF. He should be our CF until Moniak is ready. He’s a better defender than Herrera, who can still be very valuable as a corner OF. Playing Kendrick over Quinn is insanity to me. Quinn is an older prospect who’s never failed on any level. If he only plays as well as his call-up last year, he’s an average starter.

    1. Agree. Trade Kendrick for int’l bonus pool $$$. And if they really want to keep Goeddel in the organization, this is a way to assign him to Lehigh.

    2. There’s no rush, the issue remains as to whether Quinn can stay healthy all year. He will definitely play in the majors this year at some point if he’s healthy. He’s been terrific this spring but no one is surprised. His staying healthy and whether he can be counted on all season is the issue. Bottom line, get to LHV early and often to see the stars of tomorrow today!

      1. I hear you, Murray. But if Quinn doesn’t stay healthy, I don’t see why it matters whether he plays in the big leagues or at Lehigh. He’s not more likely to get hurt in the majors, is he?

        1. It’s about planning. If they trade Kendrick and promote Quinn and he gets hurt, then what do they do? If Quinn is healthy in June and playing the way we all expect, the team will bring him up and expect him to stay healthy. Personally I love watching the guy play and want him in Philly for 10 years but he first needs to show he’s durable enough. Trust me, Bowa and McCannon love the guy too.

          1. Kendrick is not really an OF and you would have a plethora of guys to slot in there should that type of an injury occur.

            Kendrick is a good player I like him he just was never a fit for this club.

            1. i think the Kendrick trade is still make sense for the Phils considering the Phils unloaded 2 roster clogging stiffs. Kendrick was mainly to help improve the offense in regardless of the defensive position — whether it’s 2B, 1B or LF. a 2-3 good months of Kendrick will give the Phils another trade asset by the deadline.

              The Phils is still in the process of accumulating assets and developing a “core” of the next great Phillies team so the “fit” is irrelevant at this point of the rebuild. Once the core shapes up, the Phils will not complete the team with players (thru farm or FA) that fits the team they want to be.

            2. i mean “the Phils will NOW complete the team with players” — i unintentionally typed “not” instead of “now”…

            3. Kuko….agree.
              Mackanin from an hour after their last game last season in his office, said he wanted veteran hitters surrounding the kids…MK obliged, and he got what Mack wanted, in Saunders and Kendricks. And IF they rake….they may only be 90-day wonders and gone in July.

            4. Howie is 33 and let’s say he is having a season at his career line 289/749 (which is unlikely) what type of blue chip prospect is he returning?

              I’d say he does bring incremental veteran value to some of the young hitters willing to pick his brain but’s its a reach to say his trade value nets anything of significance.

              I also don’t think he is what Mack had in mind when he said he wanted a MLB bat for this line-up. I think Pete had his sights set a lot higher. Klentak could have just released Ruf and Sweeney saved the $10 Mil and put it towards nabbing Joey Bats a guy that can do real damage.

              I know I’m beating a dead cowboy.

            5. value is relative to time, Phils will not know yet what they can get until certain of in time. weird things happen at the trade deadline. injuries, team standings and GMs trying to save their job and salvage their season is almost a certainty at the deadline. don’t write off an asset unless historically and going forward he can’t recoup value.

              with hindsight, it is now easy to say that Joey Bats can be signed for 1 year. But that’s not the case months ago where he mentioned that he will not give discount to resign with TOR and looking for multi-year contract.

              i can we can agree that the Phils is a rebuilding team — and a rebuilding team doesn’t commit to high $$ multi-year commitment to veterans but instead sign mostly 1-year contract.

            6. Kendrick is what many would call a “nice” player at this point in his career. Modest pop at a corner OF means little trade value which is why I suggested yesterday that we look for some int’l bonus $$, otherwise known as “Otani money.”

            7. I don’t really have a problem with the Kendrick trade per se – it’s short-term, they want some more offense, he might be traded – I get it. What I DO have a problem with is a possible lack of flexibility by Mackanin if he doesn’t produce and/or younger players do produce. Last year I wanted to blow my brains out when he kept running Ryan Howard out there and keeping Tommy Joseph on the bench. If he does that here when a better, younger player is available, I will be very frustrated.

            8. catch – agree. The Howard situation is most likely out of respect considering everybody knows that Howard’s contract is already up. I can see PeteMc to be flexible going forward and with a glut of young prospects in the 40-man, he will start moving the chain and see what line up works best for him (and his contract extension) and build a core.

          2. Then they start Altherr. Really, Kendrick shouldn’t be the starter, even if Quinn is removed from the conversation.

            1. i think the intent is for Kendrick (and Saunders) to play regularly in the beginning of the year and provide them opportunity to get some solid months and build trade value. That’s not a wise use of $$ if the Phils just utilize Kendrick as a bench guy.

              If Kendrick did not perform and can’t create any trade value), I can see the FO pull the plug and start any of the deserving young OF prospects until the rest of the season.

        2. I’ve said this a few weeks ago but it was referring to the top 100 list. It baffles me that he is still prospect eligible yet didn’t make the top 100. The ONLY thing that could keep him off that list is his injury past however he’s still played more games then 70% of the list (granted its due to age). There’s no way there are 100 prospects that are better than he is esp after being called up and proving he can handle ML pitching. I’d love for someone to make an argument that he doesn’t belong on that list WITHOUT using injuries as an excuse. BTW there have been players on the list before who were going thru TJS. MAKES ZERO SENSE.

          As far as Quinn getting playing time . . . you don’t need to trade Kendrick to get him time. There are several players who they could move to get Quinn time (Galvis, Hernandez, Kendrick, Saunders).

          1. Someone gives the thumbs down yet won’t comment or give a reason why he shouldn’t be on that list. Sounds about right.

  10. I expect (but don’t presume) to see the following at CBP before Sept:

    Alfaro – his confidence is apparent. He’s developing steadily and just might have the highest ceiling among the 1st wave of prospects.

    Crawford – but only if he’s out-producing Freddy, who I think will give us pretty much what he did last season.

    Williams – by virtue of the likelihood that Kendrick and/or Saunders are gone come July 31. He may turn out to be the most pleasant surprise among this wave.

    Quinn – he could and should be up already at his age and years of experience albeit injured often.

    That’s half the lineup if all goes reasonably well at Lehigh. Then add Cozens, Hoskins and Kingery in Sept. That would be a good year for the rebuild.

      1. I like to think Appel eventually will play out the Luke Hochevar scenario.
        Two years from now, if starting is not proving fruitful.

  11. Why hasn’t Mackanin gotten an extension by now? 2+ weeks away from opening day? When I gauge the quality of a manager, I look at how well he does 3 primary things:
    1) communication with players – check
    2) use of personnel – ???
    3) in game decision making – ???

    My sense is that the FO likes him but as a baseball lifer with no managing pedigree at the major league level, they’re uncertain as to whether he’s the guy going forward. He’s being evaluated every bit as much as the prospects. Besides, they like Dusty Wathan a lot and he’s on the rise.

    1. Why do people care about Mackanin’s extension right now? He’s in his mid-60s. This is the best job he’s ever had by a lot and he’s a patient fellow. Folks, he’s not going anywhere.

      1. ….because I like to discuss all things Phillies, Catch. This seems like a good site to do that. I’m not a snowbird so I can’t talk about my travels to spring training. I enjoy the variety of topics on here, even the occasional post on Carlos Tocci.

        1. Sorry, I don’t mean it in that way. Talk about it all you wish – I suppose I meant to say that I don’t understand the focus on his contract. He’s not going anywhere and he’s not going to do a worse job because they haven’t extended him, so the longer they can delay the decision (within reason), the better.

          1. No worries, Catch. Just speculation on my part. I like him as a guy. I’m always curious (or concerned) about managers in their contract year.

  12. 8mark…Padres keep busting the cap. Signed a Cuban LHP.
    Better watch out with Otani…he is in their cross-hairs..

    1. Romus,

      Preller will probably get in trouble with the league office again beforehand. I thought I read earlier today that SD has already surpassed their limit. Or did I read it incorrectly?

      1. 8mark…you are correct…they are in the penalty and must pay the overage luxury tax/fine. Have to assume their owner does not care.
        I guess they are on a mission to overtake the Giants and Dodgers in their division.
        The Dodgers and Padres probably have the two best farm systems in that division.

        1. Once J2, 2017 hits, SD won’t be able to sign anyone for more than 300-thousand dollars. Otani won’t be coming over until after that.

          1. Thanks, Hinkie. That’s what I wanted to know. Romus is full of information. Some of it is useful. (LOL, Romus – you know I’m kidding)

  13. Jon Heyman reports that an unnamed rebuilding club made an offer for ChiSox LHP Jose Quintana…..could the Phillies be one of those clubs, which also could be a half-dozen others?
    Nevertheless, maybe Jorge Alfaro someday soon will catch fellow countryman Joe Quintana in pin stripes?
    He already caught him in the recent WBC before they were eliminated.

    1. Romus, count me in on Quintana, with 4 yrs and a very affordable $37M left on his current contract. He isn’t necessarily a deadline candidate alone for that reason. He’s not a rental. Heyman also mentioned that while contending clubs are interested, the best offer so far came from a rebuilding team and most likely with one of the better farms. We’ll see.

      1. And he is relatively young at 28-years old, so he coul dbe around for the next 4/5 years pitching well.
        But in all honesty….do you really see this Phillies FO in on that deal?
        I am thinking more like the Braves or Padres…they have very deep farm systems with high-level projectable arms that they can deal.

        1. @romus – i agree that it’s either the braves, yankees or padres. considering what the white sox got from Eaton, the price will be prohibitive so the Phils will stay away.

  14. If I’m the FO, I have to be looking at our current starting rotation options at the major league level with a sense of urgency. By that I mean being aggressive in pursuing Shohei Otani, a stud FA following the ’18 season, and eyeing a college arm with this year’s 1-8 pick until the young guns in our lower levels arrive.

    Eickhoff may turn out to be a solid #4/5 on a good team. VV looks like a bullpen candidate, maybe even a good one. Nola concerns me though he’s coming off an injury.

    1. @8mark – “urgency” only applies if the Phils is in WIN NOW mode – and this approach comes with a risk since urgency sometimes disregard caution.

      Nola is only 23, VV is 24 and the rest of the staff are still young and developing. They are not finished product yet and with time on their side, it will not be wise for the Phils to put them in a specific bucket (i.e. bullpen role, back end starter etc).

      the smart way if for the Phils to acquire as much talent as possible in regardless of the position whether thru FA or draft. If they want to win now, thus, the urgency, they need to put their resources to a proven talent. I think the Phils intentionally cleared their financial commitment with the goal of signing multiple FAs that will anchor the winning Phillies team – so be patient. The Phils will be a key player in most of the available Free Agent that will make the team competitive.

      As for the Rule 4 draft, the approach should still be best player available considering the risks and projections. $$ should be allocated to player development and hiring the best coach available to ensure that players in the farm reached their potential.

      1. KuKo…agree on the BPA in the Rule 4….lets hope at number 8, however, the BPA is an arm…college I would prefer in all honesty.
        My preference from last fall was McKay, but he will not make it past the top 3/4 picks it appears now.

    2. Eickhoff may already be a solid 3 – he has produced about 3.5 WAR per year – that’s “3” territory. He won’t carry a team by himself, but he’s surprisingly good.

  15. Roman Quinn ranked fifth best (tools) athlete in the minors by BA.
    Oddly he doesn’t crack their top 100…and ranks behind Meadows, Margot, Robles and Phillies own Moniak among others for best CFers in the minors.
    Though Quinn is in the BA top 150.

    1. Listening to a couple games this week, Franske described Quinn breaking back on a flyball or two when he should have been moving up. His speed covers up his questionable judgment. But he should get better at that with experience. BA may not view him as that pure ball player yet. Plus his major league time, albeit brief, might have moved him off their sights.

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