Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #27

Carlos Tocci was your selection as the #26 prospect in the Phillies’ organization. Tocci received 76 of 285 votes (27%) for a plurality victory.   Ricardo Pinto (66 votes, 23%) finished in second place.

Carlos Tocci was signed by the Phillies as an international free agent out of Venezuela on August 23, 2011 … on his 16th birthday.

After some roster juggling (Tocci was assigned to Lakewood on June 14th 2012 out of XST only to return to Clearwater on a rehab assignment without having made an appearance.), Tocci finally got his first at bat with the GCL Phillies on July 2nd.  On the 21st, he was formally assigned to the GCL team from Lakewood.

Tocci batted a respectable .278 and had a .330 OBP.  However with just two XBH he had a paltry .299 SLG.  His 6 walks and 18 strike outs in 107 PA gave him a 5.6 BB% and a 16.8 K%.

Tocci played the next two-and-a-half seasons in Lakewood, giving up 4.6, 3.5, and 2.6 years to league average.

In 2013, Tocci struggled at the plate against older pitchers.  He slashed .209/.261/.249/.510 in 459 PA.  He hit 17 doubles, walked 22 times (4.8 BB%), and struck out 77 times (16.8 K%).

In 2014, Tocci improved to .242/.297/.324/.622 in 538 PA.  He hit 2 HR and 8 triples among his 28 XBH).  He drew 25 walks (4.6 BB%) and struck out 96 times (17.8 K%).

Through his first three seasons, Tocci’s defense never failed during his offensive trials.  He committed 11 errors in his first 3 seasons and posted Fld% of .981, .987, and .980.

Tocci began 2015 in Lakewood for the third consecutive season.  He excelled with a slash of .321/.387/.423/.810 in 261 PA with 18 XBH (2 HR), 20 walks (7.7 BB%) and 31 strike outs (11.9 K%).

At mid-season 2015, Tocci was promoted to Advanced A Clearwater.  He started off hot, but slid to a .258/.296/.313/.609 in 298 PA after suffering through a crippling August (14-93). Pitchers adjusted and defenses moved in as Tocci managed 11 XBH (2 HR), 12 walks (4.0 BB%), and 52 strike outs (17.4 K%).

He continued to play great defense, 2 errors and .986 Fld% in Lakewood, 1 error and .994 Fld% in Clearwater.  In spite of his lack of speed on the base paths, Tocci possesses remarkable range in center field.  He glides effortlessly to balls and rarely has to leave his feet to make a catch.

To his credit, Tocci bounced back again in 2016.  He posted a .284/.331/.362/.693 in 556 PA. He his 26 doubles and 3 HR among his 31 XBH.  He drove in a career high 50 runs and 34 walks (6.1 BB%) while striking out 76 times (13.7 K%).  His defense was once again superb, 2 errors and a .993 Fld%.

Tocci was voted the Venezuelan Winter League’s Rookie of the Year in 2016.  But in a small sample size that didn’t affect his rookie status, Tocci posted a .333 batting average in 2015 in 39 PA (10 for 30).

As long as Tocci remains in the Phillies’ farm system, the debate will rage over the likelihood that Tocci reaches the majors and in what role.  The debate won’t be decided by our words but by the eventual call up of Tocci or his drifting into minor league free agency.

Earlier this week, I commented that when I look at Tocci, I don’t  see the physical stature that will be successful at the major league level.  And today, I was skeptical about his selection as one of our prospects.  But as I prepared this write up, I have to admit that I can’t rule out his ascension to the majors.   He just keeps battling and improving.  His glaring offensive weakness (to me) was his slump in August 2015.  One that I attributed to defenses adjusting and his body succumbing to the rigors of the long season.  Well, in true Tocci fashion, he corrected the flaw and August was his best full month in 2016.

Next up is your selection for the #27 prospect in the organization.

 

Poll to date –

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Jorge Alfaro
  3. Mickey Moniak
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Nick Williams
  6. Franklyn Kilome
  7. Sixto Sanchez
  8. Rhys Hoskins
  9. Dylan Cozens
  10. “C” Randolph
  11. Scott Kingery
  12. Kevin Gowdy
  13. Harold Arauz
  14. Andrew Knapp
  15. Jhailyn Ortiz
  16. Adonis Medina
  17. Mark Appel
  18. Nick Pivetta
  19. Ben Lively
  20. Alberto Tirado
  21. Elniery Garcia
  22. Nick Fanti
  23. Cole Stobbe
  24. Drew Anderson
  25. Andrew Pullin
  26. Carlos Tocci

64 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #27

  1. Just for fun, I was looking back at our previous years’ polls. Considering how deep our system is this year, I was partially expecting to see nothing but busts in the 20-30 range. But even in previous years, we had some talent stashed late in the poll.

    2010
    27. Jonathon Villar, SS

    2011
    20. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
    25. Freddy Galvis, SS
    29. Cameron Rupp, C

    2013
    24. Ken Giles, P
    26. Cameron Rupp, C

    2014
    20. Adam Morgan, P

    2015
    20. Andrew Knapp, C
    22. Severino Gonzalez, P
    30. Tommy Joseph, C
    40. Hector Neris, P
    42. Adam Morgan, P

    1. Guys in 2011 we had ahead of Hernandez, Galvis and Rupp:

      6. Sebastian Valle
      9. Tyson Gillies
      11. Jiwan James
      12. Julio Rodriguez
      13. Domingo Santana
      17. Matt Rizzotti
      19. Austin Hyatt

      1. Ouch! Except for Santana, we, as prospect pickers, really suck. So in addition to hanging onto our real jobs, we should laugh at ourselves and not take things so seriously. On the other hand, I’ll bet there are some scouts and professional prospect watchers who didn’t do much better than us.

      2. This is really cool Fritz as Bellman said below don’t take ourselves too seriously over this stuff

        I mean as if you are somehow going to effect the outcome of a kids career. he is going to be what he’s going to be whether we rank him 3-13-30 or not at all.

      3. JRod, I remember that.

        I think we’ve also gotten a lot better at picking since then. And the team is better too.

  2. I have Pullin and Tocci penciled into the Reading OF. Who else belongs there? Aaron Brown? Or are his days numbered in the OF? Aquila? He’s already 26 years old. He was new to the states last year after having a year off so he gets a pass but it also doesn’t earn him a starting job. How about Sandberg or Tromp? Sandberg didn’t flash numbers in CLW to earn a promotion but there were reports he has some injuries that were fixed in the offseason. Tromp’s power would be fun to watch at Reading but he needs most of another year at CLW. Are there any double jumpers from LKW? One of Coppola or Laird could take a shot at AA but I don’t think either is ready. If the spot is open in Reading, I don’t think either guy would be negatively impacted if they moved up that far. They don’t seem to be in the long term plans for the organization. They both look like Lavin a couple of years back. So the next choice would a minor league org filler. Maybe someone with big upside but a ton of questions about reaching that upside. Did I miss anyone?

      1. Thank you Murray. I knew there was guy they picked up in a trade but I couldn’t remember his name. Curletta has a power profile so he’ll fit very nicely into the Reading OF and middle of the order. He also has a strong arm so he’ll make on base guys think a little bit more before trying to take an extra base.

        So you think Brown still has a chance of sticking around as an OF’er? Could he go back to pitching or has too much water flowed under the bridge?

    1. I like Coppola and your comp to Lavin is probably pretty good but who knows he might also be a Brett Gardner

      I think Brown is washed up. He is like that Derick Mitchell from a few years back. Great body solid fielder every once in a while he crushes a ball and everyone goes “Oh my” maybe this kid can hit…

      If you ask me he should show up with the P&C group and take a run at that.

      1. DMAR….I can see Brown heading to the mound sometime this year realizing that may be his only way to the majors. IMO, Pujols also should try it with that cannon.

      2. I think Brown’s biggest problem is that the people in the org who liked him were probably all in the last regime.

        He had a good 2015 in Clearwater and hit LHP pretty well there (better than he hit RHP actually). Still, he was basically platooned straight out of the gate in Reading and lost playing time pretty quickly to guys who were way older than him with no ML futures. You’d think a high draft pick with solid performance would get a better shake than that.

    2. Personally I think you’ll see Goeddel starting in Reading and then being the first guy called up (If he’s preforming the best of him and Pullin or if its even close) . . . the reason why I say this is because if he sticks in LHV he’s not playing everyday with Cozens/Quinn/Williams in the outfield and the Phillies stuck with him all of last year for a reason, I doubt they kept him around to have him as the 4th OF in LHV.

  3. Perhaps a bit off-topic, or more than a bit off-topic but I was wondering about as a comp for Tocci (one of my all-time faves) Whitey Ashburn. I am not really serious about comping Tocci to the Phillies last Hall of Fame Outfielder, but what I was wondering is whether if he came up today whether Ashburn would ever get a chance to play for the Phillies with what, 22 out of the Park HRs in his 15 year career?

    1. He would be just fine in this era. His speed, fielding prowess, hit tool and plate discipline would have made him a difficult guy to keep off the field. The advanced metrics are actually extremely kind to Ashburn. His peak was clearly the peak of a HOF player (he averaged an impressive 6 WAR over an 8 period – very impressive) and his overall WAR would put him in any conversation for the HOF.

      1. Unfortunately for Whitey, at that time in the 50s, he played in an era with some of the greatest CFers in history and was in their shadow.

  4. If Quinn can learn a portion of Whitey’s plate discipline that is a better comp. He has the speed that is comparable. Tocci does not have that speed component, so I don’t see him as that slashing, quick guy who can manufacture hits. Whitey could foul off pitches all day just wearing out Pitchers. He was pretty amazing.

    1. Quinn sports a really solid 353 OBP over 1500+ professional PA’s so he’s doing ok in that area with a respectable 8% BB rate.

      Not sure with his speed he can get it much higher. Teams are not going to want to walk him unless someone is on base ahead of him to slow him down.

      1. Let’s hope Quinn does what JRoll refused to do – lay down a bunt once or twice a week which will shrink the infield and raise the batting avg by 20-25 pts. Instead of “being in the conversation” for the HOF, Jimmy would have been a shoe in. His own stubbornness will keep him out now. The HR power is there and will take care of itself.

        1. Damn, I don’t think bunting occasionally would have been the difference between Rollins being in the HOF and not being in the HOF. It might have made him incrementally better, but it wouldn’t have changed his whole trajectory especially since, right now, he’s not on the HOF borderline.

            1. HOF wise, he’d be outside looking in over Curt Schilling’s shoulder. I’m not a big Rollins fan but his numbers will merit an argument when the time comes. Sorry for the off topic. I digress.

            2. I get the argument, but I think the difference in his performance would have been marginal. Could he have been slightly better? Yeah, maybe, but a lot better – I don’t see it. In any event, he’s a long way away from being a HOFer. He’s a lifetime 46 WAR (by comparison, Trammell, was a significantly better player with over 70 lifetime WAR and he’s not in the HOF either). He was a very good player a star for several years. But I just don’t see him as being close to being a HOFer and I don’t think occasional bunting would have made that much of a difference. One thing to remember too is that power was a significant part of his game, every time he bunts, he gives up a possible extra base hit, so you have to take that into account as well.

        2. You do realize that Rollins was bunting once a week the first four years of his career? It’s probably coincidence, but he was a much better hitter after he stopped bunting as much.

  5. Trying to decide between Pinto v Eshelman. Maybe someone can help me decide. Both around the same age, Pinto has had more success at the same levels but people keep raving about that eshelman control. Eshelman to me seems like he’s an adjustment away from figuring it out like knowing when to not throw strikes to become just unpredictable enough to fool hitters and using the control to not be afraid to fall behind in counts. Pinto i think is ahead in their progress towards the Bigs but then who has a higher ceiling?

    1. Pure stuff = Pinto
      Command and Control = Eshelman
      Ceiling = Pinto
      Floor = Same
      Risk = Same
      Proximity = Pinto

      1. Don’t believe that Pinto & Eshelman have the same floor or risk.

        Eshelman’s control make him much less risky and he has a higher floor. Just not sure that his stuff is enough to make him more than a marginal 5th starter..

        1. @3up – it’s a difference on how you define risks and floor.

          Pinto’s floor is a high leverage RP with FB-CU that are plus, Eshelman’s can be a #5 that can play for 10 years or so. A dominant RP in 5+ yrs vs a reliable #5 in 10+ years === the value is the same to me so it’s wash.

          My definition is risks is similar to MattWinks (who designated both Pinto and Eshelman as MED risk) — risks relate to the probability of prospects achieving its “physical projection”.

          You will read a lot about Pinto and Eshelman’s risk, ceiling, floor in a lot of Phillies’ blog site. And based on what I read, they have Pinto’s ceiling as #3 with high probability of being a successful late inning RP. Eshelman is almost a consensus back end starter.

          1. KuKo…what I see in Eshelman down the road , especially with his excellent C&C, is someone like a Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs. Stuff is average, velo high80s/low 90s but able to induce the higher GB% with his plus 2Smr.
            His one flaw that he said he needs to correct is his 2-strike out pitch….he can get 2 strikes on a hitter relatively easy, but right now he cannot close the deal.

            1. @romus – Kyle Hendricks is more the exception than the rule for low velo guys. That’s good if that’s the case, but what’s the probability that low velo guys like Eshelman will be successful as Hendricks?

              I don’t mean to be pessimistic, but SevGon is supposed to be a low velo guys with good command that attack the strike zone.

            2. just to add about the low velo guys with the Phils — I will look no further than Aaron Nola as a benchmark to measure the probability of success in the MLB. Nola dominated all levels in the minors and I can’t remember if we see him in the Kyle Hendricks level yet as some of us thinks that he is just a #3 starter.

              Eshelman hasn’t proven that he can dominate the upper level of the minors — I think it’s premature to see him in the Kyle Hendricks level if he is not in the Aaron Nola level yet. I will not even put Eshelman to the level of Jake, Eflin, Pivetta, and even Lively who already shown dominance in the upper minors.

              The pitcher with a freakish command is the Eshelman in college, Eshelman needs to improve his 2.25 BB/9 first (SevGon is 1.54BB/9 in 530+ IP), before we take him seriously as a top pitching prospect.

    1. V1, Arano gets a fairly high grade while CRan got a surprisingly low grade. Interesting and fairly in depth read altogether, although having AJ Ellis still in the fold shows it hasn’t been updated.

    2. Not sure I can agree with their assessment of Rhys Hoskins…profiling Darin Ruf as a possible comparative future, seems a bit of an undersell,
      However, Chris Carter’s body of work, at the comparative minor league equivalent of Hoskins, is better. So Hoskins would appear to be somewhere in the middle, if you can take raw metrics comps as a projectable.

    3. 2080 Baseball uses the 20-80 scale, ranks Phillies top 10 with ceiling/reasonable role rating:

      1 Moniak 70/65 !!!
      2 Crawford 55/50
      3 Kilome 60/55
      4 Alfaro 55/50
      5 Williams 55/45
      6 Sanchez 60/50
      7 Arano 60/55
      8 Quinn 50/45
      9 Kingery 50/45
      10 Cozens 50/45

      C Randolph 45/40

        1. Yes, 50 is an average player. I’m a little surprised at how down they are on Crawford. I have him as a 50/65 player.

    4. The big league bullpen could be shaping up to be one of the most formidable in baseball – Neris, Ramos, and eventually Arano all at the back end. If Appel becomes a middle inning specialist (I know “IF IF IF….) as suggested by some insiders, that will take pressure off starters going longer.

      Tomorrow I’ll be voting for Arano AGAIN for about the sixth straight day.

      1. 8mark…if you are voting tomorrow for Arano…yours will be the only vote cast ….Jim deservedly, gets weekends off.

  6. In the winter of 1990 the Phils had what many considered a very good Rule 5 draft…picking lithe center fielder Sal Campusano from Toronto and 3rd baseman Dave Hollins. Campusano was a 6′ 160 lb outfielder who was considered a great prospect at Toronto and there was even talk at the time that this was the Phillies revenge for losing George Bell to the Blue Jays a decade earlier.

    Unfortunately, despite their best efforts, the Phils could not put any muscle on Campusano and he was gone in 1992. I remember that pitchers literally sawed off the bat of Campusano, he was simply not strong enough. Hollins turned out to be a very good 3rd baseman for the Phils in 1992-93.

    I can’t help but think of Campusano when I see Carlos Tocci. Both were signed in their teens and it was projected [hoped] that as they progressed in their systems they would get bigger and stronger. Campusano never did and in the end Tocci may suffer a similar fate.

  7. Anyone know why Keith Law dropped the Phillies so much in his rankings? The Phillies aren’t even in the top 10- he has the Mets at 7

    1. Marc H…..’couldn’t agree more.
      The Mets have Rosario….and that is it…Dom Smith is a first baseman and their value based on positional value measurements is on a par with corner OFers. Pitchers like Dunn, Szapucki and Kay still have to show me more. I just do not get it.
      His take on JPC and Alfaro must be very low.

  8. I asked Matt Wink this on twitter, in some of the weaker systems how many Phillies prospects would be their number 1 . . . for example the Angles have what is described as a horrible system . . .

    Angles top 5
    1. Matt Thaiss 1B
    2. Jahmai Jones OF
    3. Taylor Ward C
    4. Brandon Marsh OF
    5. Nate Smith LHP

    I would think Alfaro would def slot number 1, as well as Moniak and prob Williams . . . . anyone else?

    For some reason i’m in on Tocci . . . said this over and over again but all he’s done over the past few years has improved on his numbers and whats holding him back right now has nothing to do with actually baseball skills. Think next year he’s going to be given the off season off. Think about it, playing all year round while trying to put on weight would be a struggle for anyone . . . I remember Utley used to talk about how he would lose 10-15lbs each season from the rigors of playing every day. Give the kid the off season off with one goal and one goal only.

    1. Eric D….come on man! 🙂
      Give a 21-year old a year off, without recovering from an injury. has that ever been done in the annals of baseball history.
      I do not think Joe Jordan and the Phillies org will be planning on that protocol for the young Tocci.
      Now if they want to DH him a lot more…..burns less calories I would assume, I can understand. His exceptional fielding will not suffer any less for that matter.
      However you can tweet Joe Jordan and ask him if they ever would think of that, if you want.

    2. Eric D…sorry misread your post….the’ off-season off’…..that is a good idea. An off-season of just weight management like a lifting program for baseball players, and plenty of protein shakes may be what he needs.

  9. 27 sure seems a bit high for Tocci…especially over someone like Pujols who has a chance to be a regular in the outfield. Years ago it was said Tocci had plus-plus speed but that doesn’t seem like the case now. For someone with no power, what exactly does he provide? With good defense his ceiling sure looks like a 4th outfielder.

    1. Pujols rish would prob be considered extreme tho . . . He really only is a power guy (real good arm as well) . . . Will he hit enough to show his power in game at the higher levels . . . Personally I doubt it. He fits the mold of every power hitter who fails.

      1. True, but being that there’s even a chance of him being a regular puts him above Tocci for me. Valentin also

  10. Pinto appears to be the runaway winner of this poll. He has 80 votes to 49 for Eshelman. Let’s see if that changes significantly by the time the poll closes.

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