Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #21

Alberto Tirado was your selection as the #20 prospect in the Phillies’ organization.  Tirado received 115 of 302 votes (38%) to achieve a substantial plurality victory.  Elniery Garcia led a distant group of prospects for second place with 36 votes (12%).

Alberto Tirado was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic by the Toronto Blue Jays on August 31, 2011 as a 16-year old.

Tirado began his professional career in 2012 in the Gulf Coast League.  He showed promise in his 11 appearances, all starts.  He had a K/9 of 8.3 and a BB/9 of 2.9 (the lowest of his career).  He finished the season with the Blue Jays short-season rookie team in the Appalachian League and posted a better record and lower ERA in 3 starts, but his K/9 in 3 starts dropped to 4.1 and his BB/9 ballooned to 4.1, the beginning of a problem with which he still struggles.

As an 18-year old, and still young for the league, Tirado pitched all of 2013 in Low A rookie ball.  He continued to post a low ERA (1.68 in 12 appearances, 8 starts), and his K/9 rebounded to 8.2.  But his BB/9 was 3.7, the last time it would be below 5.0 in a season.

Tirado split 2014 between Low A and Full season A ball.  By then he was pitching 2/3 of his games out of the bullpen.  He was striking out a batter an inning, but walking batters at almost the same rate.

Tirado started 2015 in Advanced A.  Toronto given up on him as a starter and he made 31 appearances as a reliever.   He still maintained both a high BB/9 and K/9.

On July 31st, the Blue Jays traded Tirado and RHP Jimmy Cordero to the Phillies for LF Ben Revere and cash.  Tirado finished the season in Clearwater’s bullpen and posted a sterling 0.56 ERA in 9 appearances, 16.0 innings.  However, he walked (18) more batters than he struck out (16).

The Phillies started Tirado in Lakewood in 2016.  Convinced that he could be successful as a starter, the Phillies switched Tirado to the rotation mid-season.  He went 7-1 in 11 starts along with a 2.19 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, and 14.1 K/9.

Tirado has reverted to form in the Dominican Winter League – 14 walks and 13 strike outs in 12 innings.  Still, he has only allowed one earned run.  But, they are using him as a reliever rather than as a starter.  We’ll get a better feel for his direction in the organization this year in Clearwater.

The love for Tirado centers on his velocity.  Reports on his fastball vary from 92-96 to 96-98 mph.  He was reported to have hit 99 and 100 last season.  I saw him twice in Instructs this year.  He threw an effortless 94-96 one appearance and a similarly effortless 92-96, t97 a week later.

Next up is your selection for the #21 prospect in the organization.

 

Poll to date –

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Jorge Alfaro
  3. Mickey Moniak
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Nick Williams
  6. Franklyn Kilome
  7. Sixto Sanchez
  8. Rhys Hoskins
  9. Dylan Cozens
  10. “C” Randolph
  11. Scott Kingery
  12. Kevin Gowdy
  13. Harold Arauz
  14. Andrew Knapp
  15. Jhailyn Ortiz
  16. Adonis Medina
  17. Mark Appel
  18. Nick Pivetta
  19. Ben Lively
  20. Alberto Tirado

46 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #21

  1. Valentine but many other could fit here as well

    Also this guy could potentially be playing second base in CBP come September next year and he isn’t even getting any votes and that really has to say great things about how deep this system has gotten over the last few years.

    1. You can drop the ‘e’ at the end of his surname.
      No relation to Bobby.
      And agree he could be playing 2nd base, or up at some role in September.

  2. Eshelman.

    He was drafted two places before Kingery, and, had we drafted him, I reckon they’d be more love for him on this board. 70 control is 70 control. Very excited to see how he does this year, as I expect him to open at AA; and I think he’ll show great strides over last season there.

    Notably, three of out Top 15 are pitchers….then we voted five in a row, 16-20.

    1. BTW I think there was confusion when we were voting for players to be added over Anderson. Yes, his name is Andrew Anderson, but he’s more commonly referred to as Drew Anderson.

      And the way he was on the list–unrecognizable to some, including me–is perhaps why he didn’t garner more votes.

      I honestly don’t know much about Drew Anderson, but he seems to have a small, vocal and passionate following on this site.

      1. With regard to Drew Anderson no other pitcher in our system with at least 200 IP has a better KWHIP Index FWIW

        and as someone pointed out yesterday granting him a spot on the 40 man is a really big deal. Can’t wait to see what he does at AA this year.

        1. DMAR……you know what you can also incorporate into your formulae.
          The K% and the BB%, along with the K/9 and BB/9.
          For example Eflin has a less than remarkable K/9, but his K% may be exceptional at 21% at LHV.
          (Not sure what the barometer is for a good K% these days)..
          That is…..he faces less batters per inning per outing, and gets more outs without Ks.
          Where as a pitcher may have a 10K/9 but a less than 20% K% facing more batters.
          Then again there is the GB% that could also be incorporated somehow.
          Boy….lots of metrics to think about.

          1. Gee thanks Romus and here I thought I solved all the worlds problems with my formula 🙂

            It might be hard to shake my conviction on WHIP as the ultimate pitchers stat!

      2. Hey, I agree with you on Eshelman and Anderson. Their protecting him on the 40-man roster as a 22 YO at Clearwater coming off an injury speaks volumes about what they think of his ceiling. He should be in the discussion now, along with Garcia and Eshelman.

      3. I respectfully disagree. I addressed this earlier when it was brought up. If he gets voted in the first day he is available on the ballot, I may have to rethink my position. But there was the “Other” option for players I didn’t include on the ballot. No one cast a write in vote for him. I’m comfortable with the outcome, and I am aware of him and like him as a prospect.

          1. Sorry, Fritzer’s statement re:name confusion between Andrew and Drew. My post would have made more sense and been in a better context if it had shown up directly under his comment.

        1. jim – if it is not a big deal, is it still possible to add Drew Anderson or the “Other” option at least for the silent participants in this site who may not say anything if they want to vote for a prospect not on the list? I have him in my Top 30 and will still vote for him if there’s an option. Thanks in advance!

          1. The irony is that if I had followed my original schedule, Anderson would have been on the poll already as a member of the 40-man. But, when I ran the additional prospects poll, he didn’t receive enough votes to get on sooner than this coming weekend. I stuck religiously to the outcome of that poll because it had been suggested that I shape the poll by who I decide to add and when.

            Funny that my typing Andrew instead of Drew may have had the same “shaping” effect that I was trying to avoid. I will strive to do better next year. Lessons learned.

            1. Andrew Anderson does give a different feel — it sounds more of lawyer’s name than an athlete. Same effect if we call JP Crawford as John (Paul) Crawford, Patrick Burrell and Harry Leroy Halladay.

              Speaking of Andrew – I just realized that there are a number of the same name — Knapp, Pullin, Anderson, Brown (Rp, 13th pick) and Stanki goes in the name Drew although he’s not Andrew.

  3. Valentin’s profile as a projected UTIL player is holding me back to rank him over Pinto, Edgar Garcia and Arano (shutdown RPs that can pitch multiple innings), Anderson, El Garcia, Irvin and Jojo (#3 SPs), Stobbe (closest 5-tool player in the farm).

    I’ll do a Romus and vote PInto until he wins.

    1. KuKo…..no wonder you keep voting Pinto and Garcia stumbles further down….but not this time….Garcia at 21 for me.

    2. @romus – no need to worry about Pinto. Looks like I’m the only vocal supporter of him so El Garcia will get in 1st before Pinto. I have Pinto at #16, El Garcia #18 at it appears that Pinto will land around #25 in our poll — which is a good sign that the farm is really booming.

      I personally like Elniery over Pinto — especially if his CU caught up with his FB-CB combo. A LHP with a sharp CU is always awesome to me — and you might be correct to predict Elniery can be the Phils’ version of a Quintana if not a Santana.

      1. KuKo…his delivery reminds of Johann Santana…but the results may not be the same down the road, just hoping. Plus he may have more motivation and determination going forward with his career path yhan most 21/22-year olds, with life changes.

        1. @romus – while both Pinto and El Garcia’s are smaller physically and don’t have the ceiling of a TOR — you’ve got to love the way they pitch and attack the hitters. The development of a 3rd pitch (SL for Pinto and CU for Garcia) is crucial for both, although the Phils can still find value for both as bullpen arms.

          1. Agree…..system has loads of higher than normal ceiling Latin arms.
            Not sure I have ever seen so many in their history.
            Has to be at least ten.

            1. and most of them are low $$ signings. that’s why it’s really hard to find fault on the FO’s approach of spreading the IFA bonus pool to lower $$ signees than splurge on 1-3 top $$ prospects. As long as Sal A. and his team are hitting it right, then, the Phils can follow the same approach.

            2. One such LA pitcher that I don’t think is getting enough attention is Seranthony Dominguez. He’s got the same number of votes as Jordan Kurokawa right now…

              He didn’t pitch a lot of innings last year but he did well in full season ball and he’s probably got mid-rotation upside.

            3. Handzus – at first, i’m leaning towards seranthony as my break out start in 2017. while he is not getting the attention in PP, MattWinks and other local phillies writer are high on him and probably have him in their Top 30.

    3. I think he is more along the lines of Kingery as a second base or bust guy
      But like someone else pointed out he is younger than Kingery and is a level above him and he was a supplemental first round pick so drafted in front of him as well, but I’ve also heard he can play other infield spots in a pinch
      However I’ve seen reports that Kingery has more speed so that probably tips the scales a little toward Kingery in there battle to unseat the future Allstat
      CeHernandez

  4. I think these votes are swayed a good bit in latter rounds by posters…like who’s left? Someone said Drew Anderson…ill vote Drew Aanderso…Ill do my homework next round…lol (or that could just be me)

    1. Sam, my guess is that if you surveyed all the voters, in all honesty they are varied in what informs them, and I bet that goes from #1 thru #30. Some rely on firsthand analysis. Others are persuaded by the persuasive. I probably fall somewhere in between.

    2. According to Joe Jordan, several Phillies internal evaluators view him as the best arm in the system. Easy mid-90s FB hitting upper 90s with good command. The stats certainly support the scouting reports. I think, after Eshelman, I would have E. Garcia and then Anderson.

      1. I think the scout’s statement that Anderson’s FB “sits” mid 90s is misleading. I watched Anderson last season. I reported on him here. And I do LIKE him. But, I would more accurately describe his FB as “upper range” in the mid 90s. I saw him at least 5 times last year. The low end of his FB was 91, 91, 92, 92, 89. His upper end was 94, 95, 95, 94, 94. He touched 96 and 97 during three of his outings, and 95 during another, He didn’t get above his upper of 94 in the other outing. (The previous data is what MW gleaned from my reports and recorded in his pitch velo file.) Maybe it’s just semantics, but sitting mid 90’s to me is more like 94-96, 89-92 seems more low 90s to me.

        I went back to see what I reported –
        7/10/16 – Anderson’s fastball sat 92-94 mph, and he touched 95 and 96 mph twice each. (51-pitch outing, rain delay)
        7/22/16 – Anderson’s fastball sat 92-95 mph. He touched 97 once. He threw 12 at 95, but only 2 after the second inning. He was predominantly 93-94 from the third inning on. (72 of 85 pitches were FB)
        8/6/16 – Anderson threw 86 pitches. He threw 68 FB (79.1%). He sat 93-95 mph and touched 96 and 97, once each.
        8/15/16 – Anderson threw 92 pitches, 61 strikes (66.3%). He throws fastball, curve ball, slider, and change up. But, he relies mostly on his FB and CB. Last night, he threw 77 FB (83.7) and 9 CB (9.8%). Anderson’s FB was 92-94, touching 95 mph
        8/21/16 – 74 of his 85 pitches were FB (87.1%). His FB range was 89-94 mph. He dipped to 88 once and touched 95 once. His FB sat 91-93 mph (14-17-17) but hit 94 nine times.

        I dunno, I hate to contradict a scout, but “sits mid 90s” doesn’t seem accurate. What do you think? Am I off base?

        1. jim – you’re not off base since you have the stats and saw it in your own eyes. but considering how easy and regularly Anderson can touch 94-95 mph, thus, the mid-90s assumption by the scout. agree that “sits in the mid-90s” is a stretch, maybe “easily reach/touch mid-90s” or something like that.

        2. The sit low 90s, sit mid 90s, sit upper 90s lines really blur. I think I agree with you Jim 93-96 is more my sit mid 90s. I guess if one wants to get technical, sits low to mid 90s is probably the best way to phrase it. More accurate is that he probably sits 91-95 touches 96-97 or sits 91-94 touches 95-97.

          1. Yeah. My concern is that the nuances of a scout saying “sits mid 90s” is completely understood by his peers in the scouting and baseball communities. But, the same term in a baseball writer’s story might establish incorrect fan expectations.

            The lower range a pitcher throws during a start and especially in the middle innings when pitchers will tend to lose velocity are expected and understood by the scouts, but not always by fans.

            I chart the pitches during a game. I see pitchers throwing 91-96 in the first inning, settling in at 92-95 for a couple innings, then dropping off to 89-92 by the 5th and 6th innings (if they reach the sixth). They are also throwing more off speed pitches later so that a lower number of slower fastballs is having a lesser affect on the higher number of higher velocity fastballs thrown earlier in the game when computing where a pitcher’s FB sits.

            That made sense to me when I typed it, but seems garbled when I re-read it.

    3. @sam – that how i am the 1st time i participated in the poll. so the past couple of years, I decided to make my own rankings (and adjust if there’s trades, injuries, etc) and use it for the poll (so i will be stuck with Pinto for a while). I kind of enjoy that approach since I like to see how my rankings fair with local Phillies sites (like PP, PMT, PN, etc) and national (like BA, BP, MLB, etc).

      i follow most of the phillies sites and blogs so I think i have good insights and make my rankings respectable.

      1. I did my own 30 last year and it was fun but i was overwhelmed this year. I barely voted so far this year. I was just making a point because i bet people are swayed. At this point its ok. For the record i didnt vote Drew this round! Lol

  5. Correct me if I am wrong, but Anderson will not be added to the list will he? I thought Jim asked us who to add when the list first was being put together, and maybe, or probably, we made a mistake and left him off. I think he is a Top 30 prospect, so we have only ourselves to blame for him not being eligible.

      1. AJ Anderson is one of only six remaining draftees in the Phillies system from the 2012 draft class….and the only one after the sixth round, who was Cam Perkins.
        The others Pullin, Cozens, Green and Watson.

        1. Watson is in the same boat as SevGon — they need to start 2017 lights out, otherwise, they’re gone. Perkins will probably join a different team and Green will battle playing time with Martin.

          1. KuKo…when Jim runs the Sleeper/Break-out Poll, I right now have Watson as one of my break-out guys…trying to narrow it down to just one.

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