Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #17

Adonis Medina was your selection as the #16 prospect in the Phillies’ organization. Medina received 95 of 299 votes (32%) to achieve a plurality victory over Mark Appel (56 votes, 19%) and Ben Lively (44 votes, 15%).  

Adonis Medina was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic on May 29, 2014 at the age of seventeen.

He reported to the DSL.  In 11 appearances and 26.1 innings, Medina posted a 1.37 ERA, 4 BB, 22 K, 0.987 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9, and 7.5 K/9.  He had 2 starts, 7 finishes, a 2-3 record, and 1 save.  He was invited stateside to Fall Instructs.  I saw him on two occasions.  He was a consistent 88-89 mph with his fastball, peaking at 90 mph.

In 2015, Medina made his GCL debut.   This season marked his transition to a full time starter.  His two non-starts were a 3.0 inning stint following a rehab inning by Shane Watson cut short by a rain delay and a 6.0 stint following a rain delay after a Felix Paulino start.  He pitched 45.1 innings in 10 games.  Medina posted a 3-2 record with a 2.98 ERA, 12 BB, 35 K, 1.191 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, and 6.9 K/9.

Medina showed more velocity with his fastball, 90-94 mph, and was reported to have touched 96 mph by Chris King.  King also reported advanced feel with his curve ball.  I saw him in in the same range during the season, but not 96.  Medina also threw a change up.  He came to Instructs again and I saw FB 92-93, CH 85, CB 76-77 mph.

In 2016, Medina pitched for Williamsport.  In 13 starts and 64.2 innings, he posted a 5-3 record, 2.64 ERA, and 1.098 WHIP.  The numbers that raise concern are his 24 BB (3.3 BB/9) and 34 K (4.7 K/9).

But in June, Medina came within 2 outs of a no-hitter.  It was his third game of the season and he hadn’t allowed a run in any of those first 3 games (21.0 innings).

King had Medina hitting 97 mph in the spring.  Medina threw 22 pitches/15 strikes in the NY/Penn All Star Game.  In his one inning he struck out three.  His FB was clocked at 90-94, touching 96 mph, his CH at 86-89, and CB at 79-83.  I saw Medina twice during Instructs – FB 92-95 mph the first game and 92-94 mph the second.

I think it’s important to note that Medina was at the 2016 Fall Instructs, his third trip.  It indicates that the Phillies are still working with him and maybe his BB and K numbers had as much to do with new pitches, grips, release points, or follow through as with anything else.   If he weren’t still a part of their plans, he wouldn’t have been back a third time.

Medina has been 2.4 years younger than the league average the past two seasons.  He just turned 20 a couple weeks ago, and is likely to be in Lakewood next season.

Medina will be Rule 5 eligible after the 2018 season.

Next up is your selection for the #17 prospect in the organization.

 

Poll to date –

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Jorge Alfaro
  3. Mickey Moniak
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Nick Williams
  6. Franklyn Kilome
  7. Sixto Sanchez
  8. Rhys Hoskins
  9. Dylan Cozens
  10. “C” Randolph
  11. Scott Kingery
  12. Kevin Gowdy
  13. Harold Arauz
  14. Andrew Knapp
  15. Jhailyn Ortiz
  16. Adonis Medina

43 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #17

  1. I’m going with Stobbe here. Yes he’s farther from the majors but he projects to be a solid 4/5 tool player who very well could be here by ’20 along with other future core players like Moniak and Ortiz. His floor is probably higher than that of most prospects in this range.

    1. I like Stobbe and while I didn’t see any of GCL games this year his stat line looked as good as Moniaks did so I guess that bodes well for him

  2. The upside is too great at this point on the list for me not to vote Alberto Tirado. I think there is at the very least, he is a future backend bullpen piece.

      1. Fritz – if Tirado had just shown mediocre control in his winter league stint, I probably would have had him here, but he walked a batter per inning down there, so it’s a concern (I get that it was a limited sample size and he may have been tired – still, it’s disconcerting). If he can tap into what he was doing the second half of last year, we could have ourselves one heck of a pitcher.

        1. Fritz, I love Tirado’s arm (I also loved Phillippe Aumont’s arm) and he may turn out as a real gem in the bullpen, but I see prospects under 2 general categories – projectable and ‘project’. Guys like Stobbe and Kingery might not have the ceiling others do but they’re more bankable to reach certain plateaus. I may be off but….

          1. For me Kingery caries as much risk as Tirado, he is a 2nd base only prospect and little to no pop. If everything doesn’t land exactly right he is out of this league in 4 to 5 years.
            Unless he wants to be a career minor leaguer.
            I do enjoy his effort and scrappy play but you need some serious talent and I’m not ready to say he has it just yet. I pull for him as I do for all the phuturephillies but I will not annoint as any more than a hope right now

            1. PhillySF – Tirado’s profile projects to have more value as SP than Kingery who’s a 2B. But risk? It’s not the same. Tirado (like big power and high velocity prospects) are synonymous with “RISK” in the prospect parlance.

              Tirado (vs Kingery) will give the higher reward but he is also a higher risk prospect.

              And for Kingery — the general profile of 2B is low because this is a position where hit and power tool are not much expected. So Chase, Kinsler, etc became a premium players because they can hit for ave and power. Kingery doesn’t have a loud tool but his skills across the board play up well with this 2B profile. I’m not worried about his hit tool (which IMO is not broken) because I can see his other tools are above average with not much of a risk involved.

            2. This could be a very critical year for Kingery.
              He will need to be able to up-balance his splits, specifically vs RHPs.
              If he cannot hit RHPs the outlook is not as rosy as everyone had expected..
              RHBs have faced RHPs thru their lifetime from LL up thru HS thru , in his case, college, RHP about 75% of the time.
              He should be well adjusted and comfortable with them by now, it is not the same degree of difficulty as LHBs facing LHPs

            3. @kurt K
              The problem with that is yeah he is a good defensive 2nd baseman but not good enough for shortstop so literally every short stop in the system is probabaly better at his best attribute 2nd defense. He has an ok hit tool providing it isn’t against a pitcher who throws from the same side he hits.
              Tirado the same but different. However he has the best fastball in the system but on occasion can’t hit a barn door.
              Which has more risk I’d say Kingery , one position that can be replaced by any shortstop, no power average speed
              Tirade could stick as starter or be a reliever so he actually has two positions he might fill compared to Kingery’s one
              Both are big risks in my book but guys who hit 100 with that slider are harder to come by

            4. @PhillySF – if a player can be replaced by another – that’s expendable not risky. It’s not easy assumption that a SS can be an easy plug for 2B – the farm has a lot of defensive SS but only JPC is the only SS in the farm that’s currently has a better overall profile that Kingery. And don’t mix-and-match 2B and SS, while both can be interchangeable, they don’t carry the same value. If Kingery is projected that he can play SS, he’ll be ranked higher.

              The only argument that’s clear is Kingery’s splits against RHP which Romus pointed out a number of times now. It’s a concern but I’m not that worried.

              Cesar can hit but so-so in other areas. Kingery has some concerns in his hit tool (RHP split) but appears to be above average in other areas. If a lot of us value Cesar dearly, Kingery is not far behind in “total value” considering he still have time and projection left to improve compared to Cesar.

            5. @Kurt K
              His risk is he can be replaced by a guy who is better at his only position, for instance Canelo would run rings around him at second base and doesn’t have the splits like Kingery
              I can tell you are pulling for the guy so I’ll stop disheartening
              I hope he is the 2nd of the future because who doesn’t love to see the Bobby Hurley type of baseball succeed

            6. @PhillySF – I pull and support anybody wearing phillies jersey. posted some “trade Cesar” but can’t remember posting “I love Kingery” – so you’re incorrect here again. I already posted my Top 50 in the previous thread and Kingery is #13 which is probably similar if not lower than most of us here.

              My argument with you focus on your definition of “risk” whrein you mentioned that Kingery is risky because he can be replaced (and you use the SS as example). In most analysis and argument I see, “risk” profile is linked to the prospects potential (as it related to his tools) and not to a player’s being replaced. Anybody in the organization can be replaced by anybody if they don’t perform. Risk has nothing to do with that.

              VV “risk” is his health and control, Nola his lack of velocity, Cozens his K rate and splits — and not because they can be replaced by a prospect that is performing well in the minors.

            7. @Kurt K
              Where did I write you loved him ?
              And ok fine here are his Risk factors
              He can’t hit righties and his fielding is only average when compared to let’s say almost any shortstop in the system who gets pushed off there natural position when JPC arrives
              He is at risk of not being a great MLB player because his defense is while is good is easily duplicated and sonif dude can’t hit he won’t play
              Whether you call it risk or some other word your argument about how you think Kingery is gonna be a good player has now turned into some somantic grammar battle
              So nevermind or in utero
              I don’t care

            8. @PhillySF – you did mention that “you can tell that I’m pulling for him (Kingery)”, thus, the “I love the Kinger” reference — although I made it clear that I’m arguing about your concept of “risk” and not about Kingery, Tirado, etc.

              now your concept of risk changed from “risk for being replaced” by another player to “risk of not being a great MLB player” — which will put all the prospects in one big bucket since most, if not all prospects, are not finished product yet. Even majority of the MLB will be “at risk” because a great MLB player only represents a small fraction of the league.

              i think the forum in general don’t engage in “grammar battle” — and our discussion is about the “concept of risk” which obviously we are in different page.

              And I’m sure your reference to nevermind and in utero has something to do with my site name.

            9. With a recent comment asking how Valentin can be ranked so far below Kingery, I voted Valentin rather than my initial choice of Tirado. I think Kingery is too high on this list. On paper, I think Valentin is at least as good.

              I also like Tirado here, because he has the best arm in the organization and made great strides during the second half of 2016, when he was starting. Can he keep it up? I don’t know and certainly winter ball suggests that the control problems persist. It just seems to me that Tirado may be on the same cusp of finding control of his stuff that Giles was right before he broke out. My biggest concern with Tirado remains injury.

    1. People are still respecting the #1 overall pick rather than his less than stellar minor league history. But I think he is a major leaguer I’m just not sure what kind he is.

          1. Yeah but only a few people thought biddle was a 1st rounder
            Appel was the number one overall pick not once but twice
            But he could end up like Biddle for sure

  3. I was between Appel and Lively and voted for Lively. Appel’s ceiling is obviously much higher than Lively’s, but I worry about Appel’s approach and state of mind and also that straight fastball. I think Lively’s a pretty good bet to have a solid mid to back rotation career. He also gets his share of Ks because his delivery is deceptive. So I’m going with him on my hunch that Appel is going go continue to struggle. But, man, I hope I’m wrong about all this because Appel’s upside is pretty high.

    1. Appel is a really hard guy to rate. He needs to prove he’s healthy, then he needs to recover his confidence. He certainly isn’t young anymore. This could be his break-out season, but he is half an inch from bust. We have him because Houston gave up on him. Perhaps the surgery and the down time will get him back to where he used to be. The Phillies do use a sports psychologist, which certainly can’t hurt.

      1. I appreciate your misgivings about Appel. Supposedly they are going to have him abandon his straight fast ball 4 seamer into a two seamer supposedly with movement. Whether his character is a problem…I don’t know. That psychologist could help. Another unknown (or uncompleted) quality.

  4. Went with Lively again. I think he makes a Major League rotation as a floor, and may not have the upside of some others, but a higher floor. I like Appel, but I don’t have him that high.

    1. the problem with Lively’s floor is it is also his ceiling, which is sad I think he will be up this year at CBP but I’m not seeing much a future for a 27 yr old righty who occasional cracks 90 mph on his Fastball

      1. @PhillySF – i agree with you about Lively ceiling/floor but not his age. that’s why i still have Pivetta and Pinto above him because both can be a better BP arm, thus, have higher floors than Lively.

  5. i can see the next 4-6 slots to be taken by SPs already in the 40-man — i have them in the following order – Pivetta, Pinto, Lively, El Garcia Tirado, Appel, Anderson with Stobbe and Eshelman squeezing somewhere in between those prospects.

    Pivetta is the one next in line in my ranking.

    1. Some serious overlooking of Valentin. Stobbe and Tocci also have to start to fit in around here.

      1. @Allentown – Valentin profiles more of a UTIL guy, thus, behind in value versus the SPs in the 40-man. I already mentioned Stobbe (and Eshelman) to get squeezed in between and Tocci slides lower due to missing the 40-man protection.

  6. I’m voting Pujols , I think it will click for him this year and the power is for real if he can make a few adjustments
    I would also except Tirado , Pivetta,Valentin, or lively at this point

  7. Pivetta for me, followed by Elniery Garcia, Tocci, Stobbe, Pinto and Appel. There’s such a mass of prospects that be argued for that I’d love to continue the poll through #40 or 50 if Jim has the wherewithal to go that far. I think we went to #50 two years ago.

    Winklemen mentioned in The Good Phights’s RHP ranking that one way to look at Pivetta can project to an Eickhoff-like starter (with a little more FB) depending on how the SL and changeup come along this year. I liked that comparison. If he can command the FB and curve enough, the SL and changeup need only to be average to change the pace during an AB. He’s shown the ability to handle between 120 and 140 IP each of the last three seasons and has the frame to handle more.

    1. I can see the similarity in the physical projection and the ability to dominate with a very good breaking ball (SL for Pivetta, CB for Eickhoff). Eickhoff made strides in developing a 3rd pitch – SL, which Pivetta need to do (either CH or CB) to keep pace and avoid the pen.

  8. Deciding between Appel, Tocci, Garcia and Pivetta at this point. Lively’s floor is still AAA starter. I think an optimistic outcome is #5 starter in the majors and a realistic projection is back-and-forth guy and/or middle reliever.

  9. Jim,

    You might want to check the poll settings. I thought I voted for Appel this morning — ceiling, guys, even though I understand he might not overcome his problems — then came back later and the poll was opening for voting. I voted thinking I must not have remembered correctly. But then I closed out of PhuturePhillies and reopened it and once more it would allow me to vote.

    BTW, when you do your tally, you might want to subtract one vote for Appel because I do think I voted twice.

    1. You’re an honest man, Frank. Doubt that it’ll matter at this point unless somebody jams the box for Deivy Grullon.

    2. I verified that the settings were correct and functioning. I think we’re okay for now, but I’ll keep an eye on returns to see if any unusual activity occurs.

      Thank you.

  10. Thanks to all for keeping the hot stove burning…so that we can make it safely to ST. Seems like about 6 weeks to go….

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