Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #16

Jhailyn Ortiz was your selection as the #15 prospect in the Phillies’ organization.  Ortiz received 104 of 322 votes (32%) to achieve a plurality victory over Adonis Medina who received 66 votes (21%).  Mark Appel (36 votes) and Ben Lively (34 votes) each finished with 11% of the vote.  

Jhailyn Ortiz was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic on July 10, 2015 at the age of sixteen.  He attended Fall Instructs that year but was not added to a roster until the 2016 GCL season.  Regardless, based on the wording in the CBA in effect at the time, he will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft during the 5th Winter Meetings following his contract signing date – therefore December, 2019.

I first saw Jhailyn Ortiz at the 2015 Instructs.  He was still 16 at the time and this was my first impression, “Jhailyn Ortiz.  First time I got to see him in person.  Yeah, he is a big kid. But that’s an important qualifier.  He’s just a kid.  He reminds me of the big kid in a group who gets the “big” nick name.  In my day, that nick name was “Bear”.  Ortiz is that big. But, he looks like the staff can burn some of the baby fat off and sculpt the rest into muscle.  It was reassuring to see how far he could hit the ball with his easy swing.  It’s a swing that is not as vicious as Alfaro’s, and his contact isn’t as loud.  But, after the coaches tear it down and build it back up, he could start to exhibit the power Luis Encarnacion is beginning to show.”  (Note that Alfaro was hitting bombs during BP and that Encarnacion still showed promise.)

Ortiz  first professional hit was a line drive single to left.  It was hard hit, a legitimate line drive.  However, his first real pro hit didn’t come until the 2016 GCL season.

Early on, Ortiz displayed a patience at the plate beyond his years.  In the 5 games I remember reporting on he had 4-5 walks and at least 2 strike outs.

I described his approach as follows, “Jhailyn Ortiz had 4 at bats as a DH today.  He went 1 for 2 with a walk and was hit by a pitch.  This was the first time I’ve seen him, here’s what I saw.  He has a slightly open stance in the batter’s box.  His front foot is flat on the ground, and looks like it is pointed toward the pitcher.  It doesn’t look comfortable.  Doesn’t matter, I guess, since he toe taps into position as he steps toward the pitch.  Here it looks like his heel is slightly off the ground, but he generates a hard swing with little apparent effort.  His single was a legitimate line drive to left.  His hands are in good position, within the frame of his body and not too high as I would have expected from a 16-year old.  He has a little bat waggle above his shoulder, but that quiets down when his hands “lock” into position just before the pitch.

“I was impressed with Ortiz’ patient at bats.  He didn’t chase, shoot he worked a walk.  I’ve become accustomed to young players hacking at first pitches.  He showed a more mature discipline than I expected.”

In the 2016 GCL season, Ortiz posted a .231/.325/.434/.758 slash with 8 HR, the most by a Phillie in the GCL since 21-year old Vladimir De Los Santos hit 10 in 2008.  Vlad was out of baseball after a 3-HR Lakewood campaign in 2009.

Ortiz walked 17 times (8.6 BB/9) and struck out 53 times (26.9 K/9).  He started off hitting well in June (just 5 games though) and although his average dropped in July he had his most productive month.  He really tailed off in August.  Maybe he tired after doing baseball activities for six days a week since April.  Or, maybe he just saw more off speed pitches.

His splits are a little severe.  He hit much better at home (.307/.384/.534/.918) than he did away (.153/.265/.329/.595).  He hit the few LHP he saw (40 AB, .350/.409/.775/1.184) better than the RHP (.195/.301/.331/.631).

Ortiz plays an acceptable right field.  He covers ground laterally better than he does coming in for a ball.  He appears to have a strong arm.  He hasn’t had many opportunities to show it but judging by the way he throws balls back into the infielders, he’s just chomping at the bit to show it off.

He also shows an adeptness on the base paths that was unexpected for a man of his size – 8 steals in 10 attempts.

Two of his home runs on Ashburn Field one-hopped into the half-field in front of Spectrum Field (formerly Bright House Field).

Ortiz is an incredibly interesting prospect to watch.  I look forward to watching him during spring training.

Next up is your selection for the #16 prospect in the organization.

 

Poll to date –

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Jorge Alfaro
  3. Mickey Moniak
  4. Roman Quinn
  5. Nick Williams
  6. Franklyn Kilome
  7. Sixto Sanchez
  8. Rhys Hoskins
  9. Dylan Cozens
  10. “C” Randolph
  11. Scott Kingery
  12. Kevin Gowdy
  13. Harold Arauz
  14. Andrew Knapp
  15. Jhailyn Ortiz

42 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2017 Reader Top 30 Poll for #16

  1. I wonder if I’m the only one who feels like we’re in the middle of an enormous tier…

    After C Randolph at 10, I can’t get upset at literally the next 15 rankings.

    Jesmuel Valentin is going to go 10 spots behind Kingery even though he’s the same age, and playing a level higher slightly better.

    Tirado, Gowdy, Eshelman, Medina, Pivetta, Appel, Lively? You can pretty easily argue for any of them.

    Pujols or Ortiz? Both are young and have massive raw power.

    How do you put any of these guys in front the other with any confidence?

  2. Kinda of contradicting myself above, but I would take Tirado, Pivetta and Eshelman before the three pitchers (Lively, Medina, and Appel) who are getting more votes. I do think it’s close though…

    Pivetta is a bit younger than Lively and seems to have better stuff. I think the consensus is his stuff will play up better in the bullpen, so he seems to have the higher ceiling.

    Tirado has probably the highest ceiling of anyone left. The end of his 2016 inspires more confidence than anything Appel did last year. And at least he comes into the year healthy.

    Eshelman had a sneaky good year. He struck out over 4 times as many batters as he walked. He gets dinged for being a command/control guy with advanced feel, but he also held his home in Reading’s hitter’s paradise.

    Medina’s K rate is just a huge red flag for a pitcher at his level.

    1. When it comes to pitching prospects I generally look at two things K/9 and WHIP before I look at anything else. So yeah normally I would look at Medina’s 6 Ks/9 and say meh

      But the WHIP and the hits/9 are pretty gosh darn good. Reports of his velo are pretty strong 90-95 so for now I like him at this spot.

      1. DMAR…ah yes, remember it well, the DMAR Algorithm of Pitching.
        At this point of the poll…time to break it out.

        1. Some interesting Names at the top of the KWHIP Index on our pitching prospects:

          1. Grant Dyer 42 IP KWHIP 15.51
          2. Nick Fanti 69 IP KWHIP 11.72
          3. Blake Quinn 32 IP KWHIP 10.11
          4. Llovera 100 IP KWHIP 8.58
          5. Anderson 218 IP KWHIP 8.41
          6. Cole Irvin 45 IP KWHIP 7.57
          7. Ben Lively 506 IP KWHIP 7.55
          8. Kevin Gowdy 9 IP* SSS KWHIP 7.36
          9. Julian Garcia 30 IP KWHIP 7.35
          10. Sixto Sanchez 79.2 IP KWHIP 7.06
          11. Baily Falter 88.1 IP KWHIP 6.97

          For those of you new to the KWHIP Index the historical figures I look at in their MiLB IP are Cole Hamels he held an index of 12.81 over 218 IP

          Velasquez held 10.8

          Brett Myers held 6.86

          Kyle Kendrick held 4.31

          In the Reliever category a few recent finds Giles held 8.70 and Neris held 7.76 compared to Chapman’s career MLB index of 15.32 insane.

          1. DMAR…I knew I could count on you to do that.
            Fanti surprises, but he did have the metrics in the GCL.
            Questions:
            –Do you have it weighted at all….i.e ..higher level pitchers, at maybe AA/AAA levels, get more value than lower level pitchers, since hitters at the lower levels are not as well skilled as those in AA/AAA?
            –Age appropriateness for the pitcher in the level he is at?
            –Size…minimum number of innings pitched?

            1. I don’t Romus but I know I should somehow. Everything for the most part is relative meaning we can look at Gowdy and know his 9 IP makes his index irrelevant.

              Age level could be big…

              I think the balance is in the historical data comparisons. We take the knowns that have come through the system and compare their KWHIPS to those that are moving through now.

            2. DMAR……there is a math/ calculus wiz guy on BP or Famgraphs who can probably give you some ideas on just that . I will have to do some research on who that was….not sure if it was the KOTOH guy or not.

    2. Otero, pitchers in the low minors are sometimes prevented from using their best “out” pitch, the pitch that got them where they are, to work on another secondary pitch. I don’t know for certain if that is what happened with Medina, but it bears keeping this in mind when trying to scout pitchers from a stat line.

      It even happens at the higher levels. Severino Gonzalez was told not to throw his “out” pitch (change up, I think) and to concentrate on a SL or CB when he reached Reading. I heard that Mark Appel was told to shelve his 4-seamer in favor of a 2-seamer last season.

      1. That’s certainly fair, Jim, and I think especially at the lower levels that’s something to keep in mind.

    3. @otero – not sure what you’re considerations since you’re preference is a mix-match so you’re right that you’re contradicting yourself.

      Tirado and Appel – people will look at raw stuff and not stat line. Both have the highest ceiling because of “pure staff” alone. Red flags (i.e. control) lowers their ranking in most list.

      Pivetta and Lively – both almost don’t have any “projection left” unlike Adonis Medina who has time and physical projection to improve his current stuff. Medina with a solid 3-pitch mix and potential for increase in velocity projects to be a solid #2/#3. Like Sixto, Medina’s projection carries him higher in most rankings over the #4/#5 starters like Pivetta and Lively. Also, Pivetta with his FB-SL combo projects to be a good BP arm — this increase his floor, and not his ceiling.

      Eshelman – his lack of pure stuff lowers his margin of error. Eshelman maybe can have a successful MLB career if his pitchability and control doesn’t left him – but for pure prospect (which is mainly based on ability and projection) status – Eshelman profile doesn’t normal rank high because of his lack of pure stuff.

  3. I originally had Pivetta in my top 10. I moved him to #13 after doing some more analysis. Nick is a big guy (6’5″ 220). He limits hits. He can K guys when he wants and his BBs are not terrible. He was successful in Reading although his Ks were down and BBs up. That reversed in LHV (in 24 innings). I have Medina and Lively right behind him.

  4. I’m pretty sure every vote from here on out will be a “plurality.”

    “Plurality” is to the 2017 poll as “fungible” was to last year’s.

  5. El Garcia for the 4th time….hope his Reading performance early on this season is exceptional and gets him a LHV promo by July.

        1. Here’s a little of Garcia vs the mighty Thunder of Trenton in the play-offs:
          Courtesy of Baseball Ross:

          1. Thanks, Romus. Garcia has much to be praised for…with several breaking pitches and a fb (?MPH) that had the hitters helpless. Looking forward to his appearance—0maybe sometime this ’17 summer at CBP. Love lefties.

  6. Went with Lively over Pivetta because I think Lively has a chance to remain as a starting pitcher while I think Pivetta is destined for middle relief.

    I saw Pivetta a couple of times for Reading in 2016 and he has solid velocity that he was able to maintain but his breaking stuff was very inconsistent.

    1. @3up – i have the other way around. I have #15 Pivetta, #16 Pinto and #17 Lively. I ranked Pivetta (FB-SL) and Pinto (FB-CH) higher because they have higher floor with their ability to pitch 2 above ave pitchers from the pen. I still consider both (and Appel, Tirado as well) as SP prospects until the Phils moved them to the pen almost permanently.

    2. Between Lively and Pivetta the edge according to KWHIP sides with Lively a 7.55 compared to a 6.50 with the only thing in Pivetta’s favor being age.

      The Dominance Index favors Lively as well a -.98 compared to Pivetta’s 0. With this index the lower the number the better.

      Again as an Example I use Cole Hamels since he was the best pitcher our system has produced in years he had a Dominance Index of -8.21 in the Minors.

  7. One more time for Medina. Gosh, I had him at 9.

    I know his stats weren’t great, but neither were Kilome’s at Williamsport. And his stuff is still good.

  8. I guess this poll is just for fun. It just seems to me that we are underestimating our pitching prospects. Maybe it is because it is so easy for them to be injured on their way to the top.

    1. how can you say that we are underestimating the pitching prospects? the farm is top heavy in position players and has been criticized for lack of TOR pitching prospect.

      1. My opinion is based on only 4 out of the top 15 prospects being pitchers. The players I read about on this blog last year and got excited about were pitchers. Some of the highly rated hitters like Nick Williams, Scott Kingery, Jhailyn Ortiz, and Dylan Cozens have shortfalls in their game that could prevent them from reaching the major leagues but these are easily overlooked. The number one prospect JP Crawford is good at everything except getting hits, and he did not improve in that aspect last year. The reports I read about the low minors pitchers last year are that they are just plain dominant. Ben Lively gets no love, but he has been nothing but successful. End of my unprofessional opinion for fun.

        1. There is some truth to what Steven says. Nick Fanti is possibly being way overlooked by us according to KWHIP. He is not even on the ballot and he possesses the most dominant indexes in the system of all the lefty pitchers.

          Where do you subtract points on him? Maybe because he is 19 and has only pitched 69.1 innings in the GCL.

          There is also Grant Dyer and Blake Quinn. We’ll see. Nothin to it but to do it!

          1. @DMAR – i know you love your pitching stats but as far as minors is concern, analyzing stat lines can be counterproductive as most prospects are being developed to learn different skills.

            Scouts and analysts look at the prospects tools, abilities and physical projection which will be part of their growth as prospects mature.

            I like Fanti and I have him at at #37, Fanti’s lack of track record (and competition) make it hard to rank him above the other prospects who already played against higher competition.

            I have Dyer and Quin as #46 and #47, but RP profile doesn’t really get a lot of love in the prospect world.

            1. KuKo…..though when you really look at it…LHPs seem to have an inherent advantage in their quest to the majors. Possibly because there are fewer of them vs RHPs. And supply and demand deems they become more valuable.
              Fanti, unless he blows a shoulder will probably be in the majors at some point, even as a 31st round , 934th pick selection.

            2. @romus – lefty’s in baseball are like southpaws in boxing — both are rare commodities and like what you said it gave them an inherent advantage since most of their colleagues don’t normally play with their style. IMO, it still boils down to the athlete’s natural skills, physical abilities and mental fortitude not whether they’re righty or lefty.

          2. Nick Fanti is another one of my favorites down here. He’ll get onto the poll before the end. I don’t have the schedule in front of me. He doesn’t have Sanchez’ velocity, but he has nice movement and misses bats. I guess he’ll be in Lakewood this season. No need for a third season in Rookie ball.

        2. @steven – as i mentioned earlier, the farm is top heavy in position players who are almost MLB ready and most of them have elite tools.

          JPC – you said: “he is good at everything except for getting hits” — you can only say this if you only follow JPC this year. Hit tool is not only the ability to get hits but it includes a lot of aspect like plate discipline, pitch recognition, etc.

          Nick, Cozens and Ortiz – yes, they have red flags but they also have elite tools that can be very productive if they click. Prospects is synonymous with “risk and rewards” — despite the of risk, the reward can be big.

          Kingery – while he doesn’t have a lot of elite tools, he can do a lot of things better than average.

          Lively – his lack of above average stuff affects his prospect value. He had a rough 2015 so I’m not sure if saying “he has been nothing but successful” is accurate. High risk SP prospects like Kilome, Gowdy, Sanchez, Medina will fare well in the Top 15-20 so I don’t agree with your assessment that SPs are being underestimated.

  9. Steven, I am not sure who we are underestimating Pitching wise. Kilome, Sanchez and Gowdy can be argued to be higher than they got voted, but they are pretty much where they belong. No one else deserves to be higher at this stage of their prospect lives. The next group could have as many as 7 Pitchers in the next 10 slots.

    1. i’m not being a home boy, but I really like browsing thru most the local phillies sites because that’s where I get more information and knowledge about the state of the Phillies farm. Most of these national sites only focus on the top spectrum of the farm (up to Top 20) — and the rest of their list is a patch job by an intern. I love looking at the rankings of different sites but it continues to disappoint me to know the lack of knowledge about the Phils farm.

      My buddy (from HOU) and I make an exercise to make a Top 50 of PHI and HOU with me doing HOU and him doing PHI and we did a random city. Like most of hte list I saw in most non-local Philly sources, my buddy’s Top 20 is solid, Top 21-30 is so-so and the Top 31 to 50 shows more of name recognition. My list came up the same where I’m OK with the Top 20 but so-so from 21 to 50.

      My point is, I’m glad that we have Jim and the other local Phillies’ bloggers/writers to give us a better look of the Phillies farm because other sources just gives us what we already know.

      going back to the scout.com rankings, I just looked at the bottom end of the ranking and I already checked out since I know it will show the same thing – lack of knowledge about the Phillies farm.

    1. LWD fan – i no longer have the Top 50 list that me and by buddy made since we did that almost a year ago when we visit Vegas with some friends. But i can share with you my own Top 50 (which I update every 3 months). Here’s my most current Top 50 ranking as requested — i posted section of my list in previous threads.

      1 Crawford
      2 Moniak
      3 Alfaro
      4 Quinn
      5 Williams
      6 Kilome
      7 Hoskins
      8 Cozens
      9 Sanchez
      10 Gowdy
      11 Medina
      12 Randolph
      13 Kingery
      14 Knapp
      15 Pivetta
      16 Pinto
      17 Lively
      18 Elniery Garcia
      19 Stobbe
      20 Ortiz
      21 Tirado
      22 Eshelman
      23 Appel
      24 Anderson
      25 Canelo
      26 Brito
      27 Irvin
      28 Edgar Garcia
      29 Arano
      30 Tocci
      31 Pullin
      32 Jojo Romero
      33 Viza
      34 Valentin
      35 Grullon
      36 Pujols
      37 Fanti
      38 Stephen
      39 Gamboa
      40 Juan Luis
      41 Falter
      42 Dominguez
      43 Arauz
      44 Taveras
      45 Coppola
      46 Dyer
      47 Blake Quinn
      48 Marchan
      49 Rodriguez
      50 Bossart

      1. Rafael Marchan is the only prospect in my Top 50 that didn’t play stateside, but he was closely followed by our peers in this site and other philly sites. Duran is a 17 yo C with very good BB:K rate, OBP and OPS — he can be a fast riser if he gets into GCL and perform at the same level. Older prospects will no project left (i.e. Stassi, Perkins, Numata, etc) ranks low in my list — they either really good (thus, close to the majors and protected in 40-man and rank in my Top 25) or not so good (outside my Top 50). The bottom half of my rank is based on physical projection, tools and risk and rewards basis. I

        If you still want me to go 10 deep, here’s my next 10.

        51 Laird
        52 Rivero
        53 Hall
        54 Ranger Suarez
        55 Felix Paulino
        56 Mauricio Llovera
        57 Leftwich
        58 Gilbert
        59 Duran
        60 Cumana

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