Open Discussion: Week of August 29th

Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.

The Phillies went 2-3 last week.  They split with the White Sox and dropped 2 of 3 against the Mets.    Their record stands at 60-70 (16-22 since the break).

The Phillies traded catcher Carlos Ruiz to the Dodgers.  That means the Dodgers have more 2008 world champions on their roster than the Phillies.

The Phillies picked up .5 games on the second wild card spot and trail St. Louis by 8.5 games.  They still have four teams between them and the second spot and two of them are in their division.

The Phillies’ .462 winning percentage still gives them the 10th worst winning percentage. The Rockies are the 11th worst team, 2.0 games ahead of the Phillies.  The Phillies return home for two, three-game series against the Nationals and Braves.  In fact, 26 of their remaining 32 games are within the division.  The non-division games are all at home against the Pirates (4) and White Sox (2).

The Arizona Fall League should be making roster announcements soon, maybe this week. MLB announced the teams and coaching assignments a couple weeks ago.  If you missed them, the Phillies will take part on the Scottsdale Scorpions.  They will be managed by the New York Mets’ Tom Goodwin.  Our very own Steve Shrenk will act as one of the team’s pitching coaches.

Other teams participating as members of the Scorpions are the Anaheim Angels, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets, and New York Yankees.

Roster announcements started last year on September 1st.  Some of the roster rules and guidelines that were in place last year are as follows:

  1. Each team must provide a minimum of seven players to its AFL affiliate, including a minimum of four pitchers (preferably one pitcher capable of starting plus three relievers) and a minimum of three position players (specific positions determined during prior call/meeting).
  2. A team may assign additional pitchers and/or players to its AFL team’s “Taxi Squad” (players assigned to an AFL team’s “Taxi Squad” can be activated on Wednesdays and Saturdays only, but a player can be transferred from the Taxi Squad to the 35-man Active Roster to replace an injured player).
  3. A player can be selected to play in the AFL more than once, as long as the player continues to meet eligibility for selection.
  4. MLB players (including Rule 5 players) with less than one year MLB Service Time accrued (not including time spent on a Disabled list) as of September 1st are eligible.
  5. Any player on a AA or AAA Active Roster or Disabled List on August 15th is eligible.
  6. Two players on an organization’s Advanced Class-A (A+) affiliate’s Active Roster (or Disabled List) on August 15th can be assigned to the AFL.
  7. Two additional players who were on the Active Roster or Disabled List of a minor league affiliate below AA (A+, A, SS-A, R) on August 15th can be assigned to the AFL.
  8. Internatiional players from the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and/or Australia are eligible only if the player is not on the reserve list of a Winter League club from the player’s home country. Otherwise, there is no maximum limit on the number of international players an MLB organization can assign to its AFL team.
  9. A player on the Restricted List, Military List, Disqualified List, Ineligible List, or Voluntary Retired List is not eligible to participate in the AFL.
  10. A player who was on a minor league or MLB DL at the close of the regular season is eligible to play in the AFL as long as the player has been reinstated, but there can be no special limits or restrictions placed on the player’s playing time (other than the automatic restrictions imposed on a player assigned to an AFL team’s “Taxi Squad”).
  11. A player cannot be assigned to the AFL on a Minor League Injury Rehabilitation Assignment by a club participating in an MLB post-season series (LDS, LCS, and World Series).
  12. Only players who are under control of an MLB organization are eligible to play in the AFL  A free-agent (unsigned player) is not eligible to play in the AFL.

The schedule is available on the AFL site.

200 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of August 29th

  1. I read this morning that the Phils won’t be bringing up top prospects but rather relievers who are on the 40 man roster.

    This makes sense. Williams doesn’t deserve promotion. Crawford doesn’t make sense to put on the 40 man roster right now. Relievers need to show what they can do so it can be determined who stays and who goes. Buchanan and Klein were specifically mentioned as possibly getting a couple of starts

    1. Only a couple of relievers may get called, when the Iron Pigs season ends (hopefully as champs) then we may see more players. Ruf, Asche, and other fringe players on 40 man roster could see time early on.

    2. They’ve said all along that they want to let the LHV and Reading teams play out the playoffs with mostly full rosters while only supporting the majors with a reliever or two. Klentak said to assume two waves of players going up, early Sept and mid Sept.

  2. At 60-70, the Phillies are about a month ahead of last year’s record (63-99), on pace for 75 wins. It’s hard to say the glass is half full when they’re losing like they’ve been BUT there is a lot to look forward to in the months ahead. Who will be starting on opening day?

    1b- probably Tommy Joseph unless somebody else is acquired in the off season

    2b- either Freddy or Cesar, depending on when Crawford’s arbitration clock is ticking. Hernandez is a more likely trade candidate (in a package, not enough value by himself )

    ss- Crawford eventually, probably May
    3b- Franco
    outfield- Altherr seems the surest bet to anchor the OF. The picture is murky considering the ongoing health history of Quinn and Williams’ development. Cam Perkins could be a sleeper come spring training if only indefinitely.

    C- Ricky Bottalico thinks Alfaro will be the opening day catcher. Rupp’s value may never be higher than it is now. What are their plans for Knapp? They can’t be that uncertain at this point.

    P- I would offer Hellickson 3 yrs at $36M before the QO decision is made. Put all the starting rotation candidates, including Pivetta and Lively, and maybe Asher if necessary. Health and performance will decide who goes north in April.
    Relievers? Sign a free agent closer like Jansen but I would also start the wheels in motion for working Appel, Morgan and others out of the bullpen too see if we can grow those arms as MacPhail likes to say.

    1. Yeah I though they would only win 65 games all year. Thought the bullpen would be bad. Dam the bullpen has saved them all year.

      1. I agree, While Jeanmar Gomez is not the a typical closer, no one can dispute his body of work and Neris and Ramos have looked good as well. Would love to see a lefthander in there with the same kind of stuff. While the starting pitching certainly needs to be improved and we need some pitchers and not throwers. I think to be competitive the biggest area to elevate is the bat. During the season there were many games I watched that you knew early on that there was no way they were going to put up the runs required to win the game. I’m not talking about a lot of runs either, 4 or 5 would have done the job.

    2. 8mark….they may let Blanco go and keep both Hernandez and Freddy as JPC transitions into ss. One or both fills the role Blanco served.

      1. Hernandez stinks and needs to go.

        If he’s not your starting 2B (and I’m assuming he wont be once Kingery is up) then he’s totally useless on a major league baseball team. He can’t play SS so he’s not useful as a utility player. All he can do is backup 2B. That’s not valuable.

        Galvis on the other hand could back up 2B, 3B, SS, and even play OF in a pinch. And he some pop in his bat.

        The problem with both of them however are that they are quickly burning through their pre-arb and arb years and will no longer be cheap pieces.

        1. Not saying Hernandez is the future…but it would make sense to start him at second, with galvis at ss until JP comes up…then switch galvis to UT

        2. Hernandez can also play the outfield as well as second base. He could probably play 1B in a pinch also.

          1. every major league infielder could play 1B in a pinch. And a lot of outfielders could too.

            bottom line, if you cant play SS you cannot be a backup infielder

            1. So if Hernandez ends up with 10 hr, 290 ba 350 on base , you don’t just keep him and make him challenge some guy who is struggling in AA at the moment

            2. Where are these 10 HRs coming from? He has 5 right now with 30 games left.

              And no I don’t keep him. Play Galvis at 2B once Crawford is here. Until Kingery makes it up.

            3. Cesar Hernandez could go 0 for his next 150 and still have a higher OBP than Freddy Galvis. This is not an exaggeration.

              The difference between Hernandez and Galvis offensively is so massive that it more than makes up for whatever advantage Galvis’ glove would be at 2B. Cesar Hernandez has been an above average 2B since the beginning of the 2015 season. He’s over-qualified as a bench guy at this point. If Kingery or Valentin force their way into the starting job, Hernandez should be traded because he would have real value.

            4. You don’t understand the point I’m making or what makes a good bench player.

              My point — since I apparently wasn’t clear earlier — Freddy Galvis should be the 2nd baseman next year — not because he is a better offensive player, or because he is a better fielder — but because I think once Crawford is called up, Kingery will be not far behind. Maybe a half season or less behind. At that point, you’re talking about Hernandez or Galvis as your backup infielder. And when it comes this time, Galvis is the only choice. In fact I think the total opposite when it comes to your statement that Hernandez is over-qualified to be a bench player. He’s under qualified because he cant play SS. This by definition makes him not qualified to be a backup infielder. What is the point of carrying a light hitting backup 2nd Baseman? That means you also have to then carry a (most likely) light hitting backup SS as well. Why would you do that when you can just carry that SS (GALVIS for all the non-thinkers on here) who could also play 2nd base?

              To recap:

              Hernandez is a starting 2B on a bad team. Who is quickly burning up his usefulness as a cheap, pre-arb and arb year starter. he can’t play SS. So he is useless as backup infielder. So he’s GONE when Kingery gets here.

              Bye bye Cesar.

            5. I understood both the point you were trying to make and what makes a good bench player. I just disagree.

              There would be a spot for Cesar on our bench even if Kingery and Crawford were starting. You do need someone who can play SS on the roster, but it doesn’t mean every bench guy has to. Probably the two most notable role players of the past 10 years – Gregg Dobbs and Andres Blanco – were infielder who couldn’t play shortstop (Blanco could play SS earlier in his career, but he’s probably on Cesar’s level now). Heck, we’ve employed Ryan Howard and Jim Thome as strictly backup 1B/PHs recently. Plus, the amount of SS that a utility IF will be required to play once Crawford is called up is minimal. If Crawford is as good as we think he’ll be, backup SS is going to be the least important role on our team for the next 10 years.

              And I don’t get how you’re just assuming Kingery is going to be better by the middle of next year. I like Kingery, but his ceiling is almost universally considered to be an average regular. Cesar Hernandez is an above-average regular right now. Kingery is most likely going to fail to make any impact in the majors, because that’s what happens to most prospects of his caliber. He certainly COULD become a nice player, but to move on from Hernandez based on that assumption makes no sense.

              I don’t really have strong feelings either way about keeping Galvis next year. He’s not a major league hitter, but someone has to play SS before Crawford comes up so why not him. But I do have strong feelings about keeping Galvis at the expense of Hernandez.

        3. See romus. When someone can come on here and post a 290 hitter with a 354 obp stinks I find it hard not to go nuts. All I here is Kingery. So kingery is better than Hernandez. Based on what? How in gods name can you make a post like that. You make no sense . plus Herandez can play the outfield and third.

          1. roccom obviously Kingery isn’t better than Hernandez right now since Hernandez is in the majors and Kingery is in AA. But yes, I am projecting Kingery to be a better player than cesar hernandez. I know you have a blind spot for Kingery since you think Valentin is also better than him, but I wont be too hard on you considering your reputation on here for having pretty much terrible opinions all around.

            a .290 hitter with .354 OBP and nothing else offensively, no pop, no stolen bases etc, combined with average to below average defense, poor base-running, and constant mental lapses stinks in my book.

            Hey I guess you have a lower threshold for what you consider a good major league player but I know a team isn’t winning a World Series with Cesar Hernandez in the lineup.

            and wow that’s great he can play 3B and OF. That would be great if he could do that plus play SS, since playing SS is pretty much the most important requirement to be a backup major league infielder. You know…like andres blanco does, or Galvis, or Wilson valdez, or eric bruntlett, or tomas perez or pretty much every backup infielder in recent Phillies history.

            1. So if Ceasar improves again next year and hit 310 , 360 and 20 swipes( he is as fast as Kingery is , I’m pretty sure they were both 60’s you just automatically dump him for Kingery, no matter what happens

            2. cesar has 14 SB’s. as far as MLB 2b’s go, that ranks as 5th best. he’s not lighting up the base paths, but it’s not bad. for his speed he should have more.

              chase averaged around 12 or so. however, for a 5 yr period there, chase was also hitting 20+ (or 30+) HR’s so you need to look at the big picture. cesar will never hit more than 8 a year, same probably goes for kingery. Kingery will likely steal 25 a year and will hit a lot more doubles which helps win games.

              defense-wise, kingery gets the nod.

              so yes, kingery is probably an upgrade over cesar. but cesar isn’t bad and he has some SB’s.

        4. No, Hernandez doesn’t stink. I don’t think that he’s a long-term option at 2b and will eventually be surpassed by one of the guys in the minors. But between him and Galvis at 2b, in 2017, Hernandez wins in a landslide and should stay at 2b until he’s overtaken by the guys in the minors.

          As for long-term, Hernandez isn’t an option as a back-up IF because he can’t play SS. Galvis remains on the team as that back-up IF because he can play multiple positions..

        5. Yikes – Cesar has actually been the best player on the team this year. How do we know he’s done improving? Freddy is currently not a more valuable player at second than Cesar. I’m not sure I’d move either guy yet, but I see a way forward medium term for Cesar, but I really don’t see one for Freddy because his offense is so bad.

          1. catch22…Cesar doubles Freddy’s WAR…2.8 vs 1.4.
            But when it comes to the game- to- game ‘eye’ test there are questions whether or not Cesar is that much more valuable than Freddy..

            1. Yeah, I hear you, but Cesar has a damned good glove and he is potentially a leadoff man, which has a lot of value. Cesar’s biggest problem (aside from his questionable power) is that when he does something dumb on the field – it’s just so bad that it defies comprehension. No doubt those gaffes impact our thinking to a great degree – probably disproportionately so.

            2. Just wondering where you got Hernandez’s war from? Asking bc i’m trying to make sure I am using the right WAR . . . I got him at 1,7

            3. You are spot on….it was BR….but not sure where or even who’s WAR that is. Not even the older CH from the Reds from 25 years ago.

      2. I’m not so sure. The manager loves Blanco and he’s cheap so I’m not so sure he’s not back. He won’t be on the initial 40 but he could easily resign after the draft and Harrison can go back on the 60 day DL. I also think Galvis will slide into the utility role at some point. He can play multiple positions well and is a good team rah rah guy. I’m hoping Kingery goes to AFL and we see what he can do

        1. Comical that we’re arguing over who’s better – Cesar or Freddy. This is a bad roster. But better days are ahead.

          1. You win
            Both have their flaws that is for sure, but o don’t think Ceasar is done improving he has every year and with some guidance he could potential steal bases

            1. Phillysf…Freddy and Cesar are best of friends….played against each as young teenagers…..Freddie in Punta Fijo, Falcon and Cesar in larger town of Valencia, Corbobo…then they both were signed by Sal A. and Jesus Mendez in 2006.
              So they have been inseparable for the last 10 years. I say keep them both on the team 2017 and beyond ….but in different roles then what they were use to before.

      3. agree with romus. no need to argue about cesar or freddy. both will be blanco type of player going forward — which means a serviceable UTIL player. JPC will come up in 2017 and Kingery the year after. it doesn’t matter who starts or goes to the bench for cesar or freddy – their term as Phils starter will come to an end next season.

        1. I also agree with Romus. I don’t see JP making the team out of Spring training, and we have no idea if Kingery, or anyone else, is ready to take over 2B in 2018, so I see both Cesar and Freddie starting next year. Freddie can play more positions, so probably better future super sub, but I don’t understand why, if Cesar can be taught a better approach to hitting, which he was, why he can’t be taught to improve his D and his base running.

          1. @matt – agree too that JPC will not make the team after ST, but a big chance for a mid-season call up and one of Freddy or Cesar will go to the bench or traded.

            I don’t claim to be a scout – but we’ve already seen 2 years of Kingery at 2B and another year next year. I can not say that he will be the answer in the 2B – but I will say that I like what I saw in Kingery down in the farm compared to what I saw in Cesar during his time. So if Cesar can hold the 2B – so is Kingery and probably better.

            Kingery will be at least a September call up next year to play with JPC as the new DP combo.

            1. What exactly didn’t you like about what Hernandez did at the minor league level? He hit better then Kingery has . . . and their slugging % is identical at .372. Hernandez has a MiLB career K% at 16%, BB at 8% while Kingery is at K% of 15% and BB% at 6%. Hernandez also had more SB in their same aged seasons 44 to 40. Hernandez had a very good minor league career . . . I know it doesn’t work this way but if you could transform his MiLB numbers to his MLB number we would do it in a second and not worry about Kingery.

              Why can’t Hernandez be a starting 2B for a winning team?

              Hernandez .292/.353/.400/.753 1.8 WAR

              Blue Jays 2B Devon Travis .296/.329/.467/.796 2.7 WAR
              Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia .320/.383/.457/.840 5.2 WAR
              Orioles 2B Jonathan Schoop .279/.311/.471/.782 1.9 WAR
              Yankees 2B Starling Castro .267/.300/.428/.728 0.9 WAR
              Indians 2B Jason Kipnis .286/.343/.480/.823 3.1 WAR
              Royals 2B Whit Merrifield .271/.305/.381/.685 1.1 WAR
              Rangers 2B Rougned Odor .269/.291/.484/.775 1.4 WAR
              Astros 2B Jose Altuve .354/.414/.569/.983 7.2 WAR
              Mariners 2B Robinson Cano .301/.352/.529/.882 6.1 WAR
              Nationals 2B Daniel Murphy .345/.388/.606/.994 4.1 WAR
              Marlins 2B Derek Dietrich .276/.369/.403/.772 1.7 WAR
              Marlins 2B Dee Gordon .271/.312/.324/.636 0.2 WAR
              Mets 2B Neil Walker .282/.347/.476/.823 2.5 WAR
              Cubs 2B Ben Zobrist .278/.384/.443/.827 3.0 WAR
              Cardinals 2B Kolten Wong .240/.325/.333/.659 0.5 WAR
              Pirates 2B Josh Harrison .274/.302/.378/.680 1.5 WAR
              Dodgers 2B Chase Utley .257/.326/.394/.720 1.6 WAR
              Giants 2B Joe Panik .251/.329/.407/.736 1.6 WAR

              These are the starting 2B for any team with a winning record (Marlins 2B were so close in AB that I used both). Below is where Hernandez ranks compared to “2B on winning teams” (remember . . . players and number for that matter like Altuve, Cano, Pedroia and even Murphy are very rare). Hernandez is toward the top of the pack in 2 of the 4 and in the middle of the WAR. We know that there isn’t much power but we’ve known that since we first heard of him. One positive thing is the areas that need the most improvement can be improved, his mental side of the game. Also he can use his speed more if he works on it . . . I mentioned in another post that Victorino went from 4SB to to 37SB at just about the same age as Hernandez, Victorino was also a HORRIBLE “base stealer” in the minors (almost a 50% CS rate) . . . what i’m saying is if you have the speed you can always improve your base running skills, always.

              Batting Average – 5th
              On Base Percentage – 6th
              Slugging Percentage – 13th
              WAR – 9th

              if you take out the crazy numbers of Altuve/Pedroia/Cano/Murphy . . .

              Batting Average – 2nd
              On Base Percentage – 3rd
              Slugging Percentage – 8th
              WAR – 5th

              By the numbers he could absolutely be a 2B on a winning team . . . he isn’t going to be a key member like some of the 2B above but he is more then good enough (or at least having a season) to be a starting 2B on good teams.

    3. @8mark – agree except for the following:

      Hellboy – there’s value to the Top 50 pick tied up to the QO or if he signed, the Phils can keep him and help the rotation and flip at the deadline.

      Jansen – the Phils are not contending yet next year. Maybe the Phils can try – Ramos, Neris, Cordero, Appel, etc in the BP next season.

      The $$ should be allotted to TOR pitcher or a big bat.

      1. You’ll more than likely see Neris get a look in that role next year . . . or at least that’s what I would do. I’d have Neris close, Ramos in the 8th inning and Gomez in the 7th or multiple inning RP (In close games or games they are winning). I wonder what Gomez he can expect to see in arbitration this year. Something else to note about Gomez is he’s done nothing but improving since making his MLB debut (one hiccup 2012) . . .

        2010 – 86
        2011 – 88
        2012 – 65
        2013 – 107
        2014 – 113
        2015 – 129
        2016 – 140

        Another thing that’s interesting is when he started finishing games (I realize that could be in a loss and I know this was his first year as a closer) which was in 2013, his ERA+ has only gone up since then.

    4. If history has proven anything it’s that you don’t need a big money closer especially on a losing team. I wouldn’t sign Jansen.

  3. Like to see Hoskins, Cozens, Alfaro, and Kingery on the AFL team this season.
    For Cozens and Kingery a homecoming of sorts.

    1. I think up to this point in the season. We have found out some things. The Phillies need a top of rotation guy. They have a good problem at 2nd base. They have a future closer in Neris. Rupp is better than I thought he was. Franco needs to walk more. Joseph has the power to play at first. but needs to improve his obp. We need a big bat for right field, The starters are mostly 4-5 types.

      1. Agree with everything … the TOR guy is going to be the hardest. How many of them are there out there? I think a lot of teams could be saying the same thing.

        1. TomB….a trade could probably be made at some point in the future. The Cubs and Mets got pretty lucky respectively with Arrieta and Thor, though Thor had some very impressive minor league numbers. Now if the Phillies do pick in June in the top 5 or 7 they could also be in line for a quality arm, and a college guy is normally quicker to the majors.

        2. Is it that hard though?

          Phillies acquired Lee (twice), Halladay, and Oswalt in a 2-3 year stretch.

          David Price just changed teams a few times. Guys always seem to be available at the deadline.

          Id say developing TOR guys is extremely hard though….

        3. Every team wants better pitching but the cost and risk are quite high.

          Curious how good a rotation of solid #3 starters would be over an entire season? With a quality bullpen an above average lineup would that be a wildcard team?
          Royals do not seem to have a #1 and barely have any one pitcher who is a consistent #2. But their staff could keep then in the game for the offense to come back while the pen shut the door.

          1. true that a team will survive a season or a playoff series without a legit #1. however, having an ace is a good thing to have if your team is down to a 1 win-it-all game and/or to act as the stopper so that the playoff series will not go out of hand.

            just think of what MadBum did during the playoffs – starting and helping in the bullpen.

          2. Look no further than the Phillies 2008 rotation . . . Hamels was becoming a good pitcher, probably a good 2 at this point but outside of him it’s back of the rotation arms. Always thought it was interesting that their worst team of their stretch run won the WS.

            Cole Hamels – 3.09 ERA (ERA+ 141)
            Jamie Moyer – 3.71 ERA (ERA+ 117)
            Brett Myers – 4.55 ERA (ERA+ 96)
            Kyle Kendrick – 5.49 ERA (ERA+ 79)
            Adam Eaton – 5.80 ERA (ERA+ 75)
            Joe Blanton – 4.20 ERA (ERA+ 104)

    2. villar also has 24 errors in the field, but since defense and caught stealings dont matter in the one fantasy league i still do, Jonathan Villar is my hero this season.

    3. Fangraphs ranks Herrera, Cesar and Freddy as 44, 46 and 50 in base running efficiency in the majors.

      44 Odubel Herrera Phillies Games 128….BsR1.9 WAR2.4
      45 Jonathan Villar Brewers ………..125 ………..1.9 …… 2.2
      46 Cesar Hernandez Phillies…….. 123…………. 1.8…… 2.8
      47 Daniel Murphy Nats…………….. 122 ……….. 1.8……….4.8
      48 Adeiny Hechavarria Marlins…. 127…………..1.7 ……. 0.9
      49 J.T. Realmuto Marlins ………….110 ………….1.5……….2.9
      50 Freddy Galvis Phillies…………. 127…………..1.5……. 1.4,d&page=2_30

  4. That the Dodgers have more players from the ’08 Phillies (three–Utley, Ruiz, Blanton) than from the ’08 Dodgers (two) is pretty unique.

    Reminds me of the ’83 Phillies with our ’76 Reds retread trio of Rose, Perez and Morgan.

  5. Mike Trout. He’s a not just the greatest player on Earth, he’s one of the greatest ambassadors for the game. I love this !

      1. A lot of the discussion here and elsewhere focuses on what the Phils will look like in the field going forward. My concern here is what the Phils batting order — without an ostensible clean-up hitter like Howard — looks like going forward.

        I’m convinced that Franco would do better as support, protection hitting behind a true clean-up hitter. The ceiling of other guys in the system like Cozens and Hoskins fall into this category as well.

        There is no shortage of table setters on the horizon — Herrera, Quinn and Crawford most notable among them, maybe Kingery.

        This leads me to Yasiel Puig who has been placed on revocable trade waivers. Experts think that a claim will be put in and that the Dodgers will withdraw withdraw waivers and look to trade him in the off-season.

        A rebuilding team is a team in need of growth and Puig fits into that need for growth. MacKanin fancies himself a manager who connects well with hispanic players. Puig would be a big project — something everyone needs.

        The Dodgers will take offers. I’d urge the Phils to make one that doesn’t ride entirely on the gamble that is Puig and is based on sell high/buy low principles. I’d go Hector Neris, Nick Williams and Ben Lively for Puig and LHP Grant Dayton with prospect RHP Brock Stewart. I wouldn’t go much higher. I’m convinced he will get traded and that the team that gets him will offer something similar. There is talk of a Puig/Ryan Braun swap. I think the Dodgers could land Braun in a separate deal for just prospects. The deal I propose doesn’t force the Phils or Dodgers to sacrifice youth for veterans.

        1. The last thing a rebuilding team full of young players need is a clubhouse cancer that Puig appears to be.

          He is also not a middle of the order hitter based on the numbers he’s produced since his first season.The league has figured him out and it appears he’s not able to make the necessary adjustments. Now maybe he finally figures it out but by all accounts he appears to be a real knucklehead both on and off the field.

          No thanks.

          1. I think you’ll be surprised by the interest Puig generates this off-season. I think if you want to make an omelette, you can’t be afraid to break eggs. At a point where the Phils seem prepared to offer Hellickson for $16.7 M for one year to be a tutor and run-of-the-mill starter, I don’t see a big problem in taking on Puig and his < $17.5 M for 2 years with the cost of acquiring him.

            If you see what he's doing currently, you see that Puig's more of a middle of the order hitter than anyone who figures to wear the candy stripes in '17. Not even close.

            For a team not interested in spending for high end free agents or busting the ceiling on international signings, you have to adapt your approach, not just whittling your stick and watching the team get shut out like they were tonight.

            1. Fighter flea- You are missing the point. Puig is a major jerk there’s no way around it. If Puig wasn’t a problem child he would be with the dodgers right now and not in the minors. The headache that he brings isn’t worth it, he is incredibly selfish.
              You can say what you want about the Phillies ownership not being interested in spending for high end free agents but I think you are off base on that one. They have spent in free agency in the past and I think they will do it again but last year wasn’t the time.

            2. You mean what he’s doing in AAA in the PCL? Haven’t we already learned that minor league numbers don’t translate to the majors? His major league numbers post 2013 have been mediocre at best and are regressing quickly.

              Why would a team like the Dodgers that is struggling for offense send an offensive juggernaut down to AAA other than because the rest of his act is unacceptable.

              I expect teams will take a chance on Puig based on the talent that’s there but for a Phillies team trying to build a young roster, they do not want their highest paid player to be a problem child.

  6. Does Tebow go to the AFL after the Phils sign him? Furthermore, is he a top 10 org prospect?

    1. Wait, he throws lefthanded. We need LHPs. If you’re a lefty and can throw strikes, you have a career in the big leagues. (I jest of course)

  7. I’d be open to the Phillies gauging trade value on the current major league roster and wouldn’t designate anyone as untouchable. There could be a nice package put together for the right players or prospects. No favorites should be allowed just best value.

  8. Herrera and Rupp have some value. I don’t know what they would bring, but the Phils, if they are to get to be a contending team, are going to need a little luck. Like the Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner kind of luck and the rescuing of Jake Arrieta from the disgard bin. Very similar to the Werth and Victorino acquisitions back in the day.

    1. I agree with you, we will need some luck. But we’ve already gotten lucky in Herrera and the last thing I would do right now is flip him while his value is lower. Many players struggle a little in their second year in the majors. Herrera is in his age 24 year – and, even in what appeared to be an off year, he made some strides. I would certainly give him a chance to turn things around next year before I did anything with him. Man, it’s amazing how quickly people sour on a young player. Odubel has a lot of talent.

      1. Probably comes down to Quinn and Hererra eventually…something has to give… could go to a corner, but not sure how their respective offensive metric projects.
        Then the corners may have Williams, Cozens and Altherr vying for jobs.
        It will be interesting to see how MacKlentak navigates the plethora of talent a year from now.

        1. Herrera seems to be hitting again. Quinn whenever he starts and finish a season healthy would be a plus Altherr seems to have leveled off. They need Herrera all the other options except Mickey Mo are having some kind of problem.

          1. rocco……Herrera has the talent and skill. You may get a quality pitcher in exchange if it came down to it and Quinn is ready to take over CF.
            The three positions on the field that GMs are looking for BOTH skill and leadership to take their team to the playoffs and eventually to the WS…are catcher, shortstop and center field. Thats obvious….Fangrapsh/BP posit those three as the most valued positions.JPC will solve the ss. Hopefully one of Rupp/Alfaro or Knapp fills the square for catching. Herrera I do not see as part of the leadership triad. Quinn may, Moniak is probably the final answer.
            BTW….sure Bobby Abreu was a great player and they should have recd more in return….but how did the Phillies end up after the B.A. trade……eventually best 6 years in their history. Seems management may have wanted others to lead the Phillies…..JRoll for one.

            1. Dam old age I meant when we dealt fan favorite Willie Montanez for Garry Maddox. Trading Herrera will be hard imo. He still has time to grow and get better, right now he is pretty dam good.

      2. Klentak will definitely listen to offers on Odubel this off-season. Depends how highly other GM’s think of him, but I believe (with four years of team control) there’s at least a decent chance that he’s dealt. The Phillies have options at CF.

        1. agree HInkie – for the right price, Doobie will go. Quinn, Altherr (in 40-man) and MikeMo (by 2020) will make it easier for the FO to move on from Doobie.

          Again, it should be for a good return not just a bunch of scrubs.

    2. That’s the exact deal I was thinking of as well. After hearing about the loss tonight, I have think about which players are coachable. Phillies are in a position to know who to trade. Hitters not being patient at the plate and base running errors.

  9. Catch, I wasn’t suggesting that we trade Herrera, or that I have given up on him, merely that he and Rupp are among the few with trade value. I keep him until or if Quinn stays healthy or Altherr proves to be a better option in CF. Neither has occurred.

    1. The comment about giving up on him wasn’t directed at you – there were a lot of other comments I’ve seen on the site recently suggesting that people were giving up on him.

      1. Here’s the thing with Herrera . . . we were all enamored by his first half .294/.378/.427 10HR 44BB . . . his second half is obviously not good .258/.317/.377/.695 with single digits with 2B, SB, RBI. But if before the season we were told he would hit .283/.360/.412/.771 with more hits, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, and less K’s (or right about the same) as last year, i’d say we’d all be happy. Improving on just about all your numbers from year 1 to year 2 . . . all this after never playing above AA.

  10. Asher is not gonna be ready, so the Phils should unleash Phil Klein again, since his spot start, he’s been amazing at LV. Might as well see what we’ve got in him and I assume he’s still on the 40 man

    1. Jake looked a lot more relaxed. He kept the ball down, and his secondary pitches had movement. Hopefully, he can keep it up in his next start.

      1. Guru…hopefully he does well, since it may be his last start this season. Not sure they want him going too far over 150 innings.
        He is already max this season for his career.

    2. Jake utilized his upper 80s SL in good use but the 2S seems to be his main pitch. Nonetheless, it’s good to see that Jake started to feel confident about his bet pitch — SL.

      1. I was listening to the Felske Files. John Stolnis made a good point. He said every time Jake Thompson has been advanced a level during his minor league career, he has struggled early and then figured things out and pitched well. Hopefully, he has now figured things out at the MLB level.

        1. Agree. Read an article on 2 days ago by Tal Venada that supports that point.

  11. What possible “stars” could Phillies obtain? I think every team wants quality over quantity so I doubt Phillies will be able to trade depth for star prospects.
    Phillies would need to ‘get lucky’ acquiring an undervalued resource (like Appel who at least had upside). I still think they should be in asset collection mode so getting anything for any player with more than 2 years of experience makes sense to me.

  12. “Fighter flea- You are missing the point. Puig is a major jerk there’s no way around it. If Puig wasn’t a problem child he would be with the dodgers right now and not in the minors. The headache that he brings isn’t worth it, he is incredibly selfish.”

    We could go back and forth but instead I encourage you to google the name Jackie Bradley Jr. and see the many previous citations to his being “stubborn”, “uncoachable” and with a “bad attitude.” That was before. Now he’s an untouchable on a contending team. He’s belatedly gone through a maturation process others have gone through. Nobody’s complaining. The Red Sox patience was rewarded. Dodger impatience with Puig could reward — who knows?

    I don’t think I’m the one missing the point.

  13. I believe that it’s incumbent upon the front office to maximize value, however that is determined. Are players such as Rupp, Odubel and Cesar worth more to us as trade pieces in the off season or impact players in the future? End of story, regardless of who our personal favorites are.

    1. At a certain point, we need to determine who is a “foundation piece” and build around them. And, just because we “maximize value”, doesn’t mean the players we get back won’t crash and burn. All 3 players that you mentioned are generating decent WAR. It’s WAR that may not be easily gained by their replacements.

      1. @Guru – you are correct, but remember dealing is a position of strength is a good way to get value. The Phils have depth in 2 premium positions – CF and C – and a good prospect in 2B knocking at the door within a year (I don’t even consider a decent prospect in Valentin).

        Doobie, Rupp and Cesar are not highly touted prospects and once “unproven” but were able to generate decent WAR. I think their “unproven” counterparts have better ceilings and that’s the gamble that the Phils will have to take.

        I also agree with the foundation piece – the 1st group are already up – Franco, Nola, Jerad, VV, Neris and possibly Doobie (with reinforcement are already up – Ramos, Jake, Eflin) while the supporting (but fungible) group are holding up. The next core will come from LHV/REA group and (possibly) a couple of $$ FA.

        1. With Rupp, he’s breaking out at age 27 (which is late) so I’m more inclined to deal him than Odubel. However, you figure the Phillies will take it slow with Alfaro so you can still trade Rupp next year IF (and it’s still an if) Alfaro is ripping AAA.

          Odubel has already put up 3 WAR at age 24. That followed up 3.8 WAR at age 23. Quinn is already 23 at Reading. The odds of Quinn (and any other Phillies Prospect CF not named Moniak) putting up that WAR in their first 2 years are slim in my opinion. In this case, I would rather keep Odubel.

          Moniak is the future, but best case, he’s still 3 years away minimum. When he’s ready, the Phillies will make space for him.

          1. How old do you think Ruiz was when he broke out?
            You cannot hold it against a player when he isn’t given the opportunity to start in the majors, or for that matter brought up…Rupp was 24 when he was brought up for 14 PAs. The second year he had more but 18 games and 64 PAs is not much of a sampling as he played mostly at LHV. last season was his first real full time shot..

            1. I understand, but that’s how it goes, fair or not. And I’m not advocating for the the Phillies to trade Rupp. I’m just giving some reasons for why they could trade him. Unless I get a crazy offer (i.e. Giles deal), I’m keeping those guys.

  14. Altherr is not the answer IMO. Really nice player, I like him a lot and he has enough tools to stick as a 4th OF but I don’t think the bat is ever going to come along enough for him to become an everyday player.

    1. DMAR…….because of his outstanding defense, the team could possibly ‘hide’ him in RF, as long as the LF and CF positions are offensive pluses and lineup has adequate power…..which you hope Franco, Joseph (Hoskins maybe) and Rupp (Alfaro) live up to their capabilities.
      IMO I see Altherr eventually as a 250/325/775 guy but still can give a team 15 HRs..

      1. I’m not sure about that. Altherr looks like a Mayberry clone. You just hope that he can hit enough to be a starter.

        1. JMJR is also what I see today when I watch Aaron hit but as I watch Werth at age 37 I wonder could he evolve himself to be that so to that end I looked up the PitchFX data to lead me one way or the other.

          Werth’s O and Z Swing% are quite remarkable when put next to JMJR and Altherr.

          It basically shows what you saw when Jayson was here and what he has become known for and that is he sees a lot of pitches and doesn’t chase out of the zone that often but when he does he makes contact more often than either Mayberry or Altherr.

          The data is black and white the interpretation of it is where the fun begins.

          1. Guru/DMAR….funny you mention JMJr…when I comped Altherr to Mayberry and their respective MiLB metrics last year I was berated unmercifully by the PP following. And Mayberry was a one of the few ever first round picks…in two separate years, so he was highly scouted and thought of.
            Anyway, Altherr may end being a Mayberry plate guy….but his defense is far above what JMJr’s was.

          2. Did you see Werth’s HR? He looked like he was fooled on the pitch but kept his hands back and still made enough good contact to get it over the wall. I was shocked when it went out.

        2. Guru – physically, yes they’re like clones and that’s not bad because JMJ physical tools are actually good. The total make up and baseball IQ is what Altherr can separate from JMJ and right now, Altherr has the opportunity and time/age to prove that. Even if the Altherr experiment fails like JMJ – that’s fine because it’s MickeMo time!

          1. Worst case, Altherr becomes a 4th OF and hangs around on a major league roster for the next 5-7 years.

    2. You may turn out to be right but Altherr’s tools are impressive if not polished, especially at the plate. He could either be a decent 4th OF or Matt Kemp at his peak. And he’s a good military kid.

    1. Mayberry was a guy I wanted to see succeed. He just had that ‘dear in the head lights’ thing about him. Great athletic ability but little confidence. He just wasn’t (isn’t) a “baseball player”.

  15. Just reported on mlb trade rumors – Puig claimed by unknown team. No word on the likelihood of a deal.

    1. Puig, despite ups and downs, has a career MLB SLG of .468 which far surpasses Franco and everyone on the Phils but the declining Howard and rookie Joseph. This in response to the poster who claimed he didn’t see Puig as a middle of the order bat in Philly.

      1. Well since I also made the argument that Franco and everyone else on the current Phillies roster are not middle of the order bats either how does that change anything with Puig?

        IF Puig hit like he did in his rookie year then its a different story. Using his career slg % that is inflated based on that one season out of 4 doesn’t bolster your case. He’s gotten progressively worse. Using your argument, the Phillies should resign Howard based on his career Slg% of .515 and just ignore recent history.

        I would not have a problem with the Phillies taking a chance on Puig if he wasn’t a problem in the club-house. He’s poison on a young team where the guys with the biggest contracts are the leaders in the club house. It’s the reason the team traded Abreu many years ago so that Rollins, Utley, and Howard could become the face of the organization.

        1. Gillick traded Abreu less than 9 months after he became GM…for really peanuts when you think about it… to the Yankees, and the Phillies were still in the playoff that year in ’06 in July.
          Why…because he knew what kind of players win in the playoffs…..character guys with both the talent and leadership qualities……players who hate to lose today’s game, not ‘we will get them tomorrow’.
          Puig is a talent……but Dodger’s know, right now, he is not a player that will be there in crunch time. Who knows how he is a few years.

          1. I agree that the Abreu trade was an “addition by subtraction” move, which was pretty amazing given that Abreu was objectively quite valuable at the time. As soon as the trade was made the team starting winning and did so for another 5 years – it wasn’t all as a result of Abreu being gone by any means, but they wanted to change the clubhouse dynamic and they did.

            Puig would be bad for this team’s mojo – he’s not worth the risk based on what I’ve seen of him.

        2. This is what Puig said two days ago:

          “Watching the Dodgers being in first place, it’s very difficult,” Puig said to ESPN. “The moment I arrived in L.A., people were crazy for me—50 to 60 thousand people [cheering] at the stadium. I got used to that amount of fans.

          “[Playing in the minors] is something that has taught me humility, and I am very grateful,” he said. “I do not know what the future will hold in the next few hours. I don’t know where I will go. I don’t know my fate. God only knows my destiny, and I am here to fulfill it. He gave me many opportunities, the way [the Dodgers] did, and I put myself in this situation.”

          To me it sounds like a young guy who is starting to get it. Comparisons with Abreu I feel are inapposite. Abreu was a “me guy” throughout his career and was a problem into his 30’s.

          1. Actually, even though it was the right time to move Abreu, he was one of the more unfairly maligned players in Phillies’ history. He played at a borderline HOF level in Philadelphia. But he sometimes seemed a little aloof and he didn’t slam his face into walls like Aaron Rowand. I never saw that he was a bad person or a truly bad influence on anybody – his teammates liked him and he wasn’t pulled off the field by his manager. He just wasn’t what Philadelphia fans love in a player. If Puig had the same personality as Abreu, I wouldn’t be worried at all about his effect on the team.

            1. Thank you for saying this . . . Abreu, for me is the most underrated player over the past 25 years. Think of what a team might get for a 32 year old OF who is a .300 hitter, a .400+ OBP guy, .450+ SLG and is going to hit 20+HR, 20-30SB, 100+BB, 40-50 2B, 100+ Runs . . . would be a huge return. One player we got back may have been interesting at the time, CJ Henry . . . was the 17th overall pick the year prior. I believe he’s known around here.

          2. Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t. Maybe his agent had told him that no one in baseball was willing to trade for him before the trade deadline and his chances of getting that next big contract is being hurt by his reputation.

            So if he has “seen the light” and is going to change is ways. The next thing he needs to do is then change his approach because he on field production has also collapsed.

            IF he was still the offensive player he was 2013, he wouldn’t be in AAA right now regardless of this attitude (see Manny being Manny)

            1. At his worst, this season, Puig was out-performing every Phils’ outfielder but Herrera. In the minors, he’s outperforming every Phils’ position prospect. in the system. It’s just ironic on a board focusing on prospects — young guys by definition– to read people take the position you do. Unless you seriously think Puig’s in permanent decline.

            2. DMAR…….but Puig says he has now changed. He is a new humble man. Don’t you believe him?

            3. @ my boy Romus-I honestly do not and no offense to Yasiel I just don’t think he has the capacity to understand what this is all about….winning MLB baseball.

              Now the talent and the supposed change in attitude is intriguing…what do they want for him?

          1. DMAR, you crack me up. You’re like the baserunner who never got picked off cause he never took his foot off the base.

  16. Since the Cesar discussion spilled over into the box scores, figured I’d throw out my 2 cents. I’m gonna take this tool by tool.

    Power – Virtually none. He’s a shade above Ben Revere, but he’s still at the bottom of the spectrum. To put this into perspective, in over 1100 PAs, he has 7 HRs. 5 Have come this year. But nothing about his batted ball tendencies have changed. Both his LD% and FB% are virtually identical to his career. Which means, simply, that he is LUCKY to have 5 HR. As a full time starter. Over the course of almost an entire year. Even expecting him to occasionally reach the 10 HR plateau is unrealistic.

    Speed – He has speed. It’s probably 55-60 grade. HOWEVER, that does not play out in his base running. Whatever speed he has is obviously being negated by poor reads on the bases. His linear running times (base-to-base) are certainly respectable. And the speed helps him get to some balls on defense. But offensively, a player with 34 SB versus 18 CS (73%) is not a threat and is only moderately useful. Add in the fact that he is not a good base runner outside of stealing and he’s average at best. So that means all of his offensive contribution is tied up in his average.

    Hit – Certainly has shown to be above-average in this regard. The league average for BA is .272 at 2B (which is higher than the league average as a whole, for what it’s worth). His career average is .278, and obviously even better this year. The worry, though, is that his BABIP both this year (.358) and for his career (.349) are unsustainable. The league average is .300. But to compare it to somebody with above average speed would be better. And those comparisons are not encouraging. The only players I’ve found with similar career BABIP not only have equal or better speed, but also pair it with MUCH better power. The only bit of hope for Cesar in these comparisons is that Cesar is above average at hitting LDs. But this year he ranks 14th in BABIP and 29th in LD%. It’s just not adding up. He looks more like a .330-.340 BABIP player in my estimation which means he’s never going to hit .300.

    Plate Discipline – This is the one area where Cesar is pretty much indisputably a useful player. He’s had the exact same BB% and K% this year and last (8.8% and 19.0%, respectively). Both marks are above average (league average BB% is 8.1%, K% is 21%). No real gripes, here. He’s done a good job of controlling the zone and swinging at pitches to hit.

    Overall Offense – Below average. He’s having everything come together at once this year and it’s still barely above average. His HR numbers will regress. He’ll get less lucky on BABIP. His triple slash is going to look worse. But he’s got no wiggle room. If he’s any worse than he is currently on offense, he’s going to be below average. And there’s no reason to believe he’ll keep this up. All his peripherals suggest he’s simply lucky this year.

    Defense I’ll keep as a single tool since it’s so complicated. I noticed somebody mentioned (I think Catch, correct me if I’m mistaken) that he’s put up good defensive metrics this year. And that’s true. But you’re forgetting that defensive metrics don’t stabilize until after 3 seasons worth of data. And the entire of body of his work suggests one thing: calling him average defensively at 2B would be generous. He’s still got some innings to add to stabilize it, but we currently have 3 partial seasons of horrible metrics, and one season of good metrics. And that’s only at 2B. At every other position he’s played, the small samples have been absolutely horrendous. By the way, his aggregate DRS (at 2B) for his career is -7. It’s at 0 this year.

    So we’ve basically got a singles hitter with a decent on-base ability, but no other weapons. Do you think hitting .280 with no power, no value added through base running, and average at best defense is a first division regular? I sure don’t. Maybe he improves over time, but nothing in his stats suggest that. And he’s already 26, he’s not getting stronger or faster. So where is that improvement coming from? Learning defense? Has 8+ years not been long enough to figure it out?

    Anyways, it’s his job to lose for the time being. But I do expect him to lose it. As early as next year, in fact. Is Kingery the answer? I don’t know. But Kingery definitely has better tools at his disposal. Across the board, I might add. He’s faster, stronger, and a better defender. But maybe he can’t put it together. In which case, I am fairly certain that Galvis is actually a better option (although not by a lot). But the one thing I am 100% sure of is this: the current version of Cesar Hernandez is not the Phillies’ 2B of the future.

    1. you had me right up to the Galvis comment. Galvis is not a better option, his only additional value is that he can play SS.

      1. When I say better, I still don’t mean a regular for a good team. But his defense will be better, and the power will be there. It’ll be a trade off, but average can disappear with bad luck. Defense and power are always there. Galvis can back his way into 10 HRs at this point. There will be some years Hernandez does better, and some where Galvis does. But I think, ON AVERAGE, Galvis will have a very slight edge (think .2 WAR per year slight).

        In general, that little difference is a moot point. But, as you mentioned, Galvis also has positional flexibility (he’s also a better defender everywhere else on the diamond than Cesar). So if I had to pick one of the two, it’d be Galvis. Just for that fact that if he’s still around when he’s dethroned at 2B, he’d still have value as a bench piece.

    2. A few things . . . one you mention his base running . . . this is something that can (and I would imagine WOULD) be worked on. I gave the Shane Victorino example . . . Vic went from 4SB to 37SB in their same aged seasons. Also Vic was a terrible base stealer in the minors (almost a 50% CS rate) but he worked on it and made his speed work for him (obviously Vic is prob a grade to grade and a half higher then Hernandez). So you can improve at that age.

      You also said that something about Kingery . . . well if you look at their minor league numbers Hernandez put up better numbers then Kingery has . . in their same ages MiL seasons he even stole more bases.

      Do you see where he ranks among “winning 2b”? He’s right in the middle of the pack and in some areas in the top 7 (That’s with Altuve, Murphy, Cano and Pedroia).

      It’s interesting that his power as went up (in terms of HR) while improving his K rate and BB rate.

      PS you ask where is he improving then knock him for improving his D by saying well in the past it’s horrible . . . which is it? Can’t have it both ways.

      1. You’re ignoring context to prove your point, I’ll take it paragraph by paragraph.

        “A few things . . . one you mention his base running . . . this is something that can (and I would imagine WOULD) be worked on. I gave the Shane Victorino example . . . Vic went from 4SB to 37SB in their same aged seasons. Also Vic was a terrible base stealer in the minors (almost a 50% CS rate) but he worked on it and made his speed work for him (obviously Vic is prob a grade to grade and a half higher then Hernandez). So you can improve at that age”

        You’re not correctly remembering what Vic did as a player. He was always a burner, having 40+ SB in both his age 20 and 21 seasons in the minors. And his success rate as a whole in the minors is not “terrible”. He was successful 72% of the time. In his first year in the majors he only had 4 SB to go with 3 CS, but then next year he went 37-4 and never looked back. In addition, Vic had something that, unfortunately, these other players don’t: Davey Lopes. Lopes combined with the better speed Vic possesses make him a non-comparison with Cesar.

        “You also said that something about Kingery . . . well if you look at their minor league numbers Hernandez put up better numbers then Kingery has . . in their same ages MiL seasons he even stole more bases.”

        Once again, misrepresenting the stats. In his age 22 seasons, Cesar was in his 5th year of full-time instruction with the Phillies. Kingery is in his first (last year was partial). As for their numbers: Cesar had 21 SB vs 15 CS (not good), Kingery has 29-7 (exceptional) in their age 22 season. Cesar has a .05 lead in average, and .09 lead in SLG. Kingery has a .13 OBP lead and .05 lead in OPS. Combined with better defense and WAY better base running? I’ll take Kingery’s numbers, thanks.

        “Do you see where he ranks among “winning 2b”? He’s right in the middle of the pack and in some areas in the top 7 (That’s with Altuve, Murphy, Cano and Pedroia).”

        Facile argument. And why, exactly, WOULDN’T you include the better 2B in your discussion of first division regulars? Anyways, you’re taking Cesar’s best year and comparing it to some people’s worst. Since 2014, among 2B with at least 1000 PA, Cesar ranks 24th in WAR. TWENTY FOURTH. In average, he’s 15th, OBP 10th, SLG 30th, wOBA 23rd, and wRC+ 22nd. Is this screaming, “sub-par offensive player” to you? Because it should be.

        “It’s interesting that his power as went up (in terms of HR) while improving his K rate and BB rate.”

        Once again, his power has not gone up. His luck on fly balls has. That happens sometimes. He’s hitting the same number of flyballs and line drives, and making the same amount of hard contact. He’s just getting lucky that some balls are barely carrying over the fence. If he were actually hitting for more power, he’d have more XBH. But if you ignore HRs for both years, he’s actually got fewer XBH than last year in more PAs.

        “PS you ask where is he improving then knock him for improving his D by saying well in the past it’s horrible . . . which is it? Can’t have it both ways.”

        I haven’t said he’s improved his D. In fact, you’re completely ignoring what I said. His defensive metrics this year are good. BUT THAT’S NOT HOW DEFENSIVE METRICS WORK. Defensive metrics take about 3 seasons worth of data to stabilize. His haven’t even stabilized yet. But his whole body of work suggests bad defense, not good.

        As I said to catch, if you want to argue that he’s been better in terms of the eye test, it is what it is. I disagree, but it’s not like you’ll listen to me over yourself anyways.

        1. I also forgot to mention that Cesar’s BB% and K% haven’t improved. They’re literally exactly the same as last year. Which is good, but you’re still trying to make him sound better than he is by incorrectly representing what has happened.

  17. Funny Galvis D has been great his yr his power numbers are increasing. He could have a 20 hr 70 rbi yr something Cesar could never do . Cesar seems to put 2 month’s of good baseball with 4 months of avg to bad together in one season.

    1. Guess it depends on what you value. Galvis has more power (he’s not going to ever hit 20 hrs) but won’t ever hit for average or get on base. His .OPS is more than 100 points lower than Hernandez and guys who OPS well under .700 like Galvis are not major league regulars of good teams.

      I don’t see either of them as a solution for the team moving forward but right now, Hernandez is the better offensive player.

      1. I agree with this completely. If Freddy showed better plate discipline or a better hit tool, he would probably be more valuable. But he’s managed to show all of this power and still really stink as a hitter – I don’t see any more upside in Freddy – I think this is what you get. Cesar is more valuable now and, because his hit tool and plate discipline are good and because he has shown a different approach at the plate which apparently has resulted in his being better able to drive the ball (one of his most serious limitations), he’s not only more valuable now, he offers the prospect of further improvement. Is he the second baseman of the future? Probably not, but he’s perfectly fine for the next couple of years.

        Bill James once said that fans seem to focus their frustrations on the team’s best players – in the case of Cesar Hernandez, that is certainly true. Everyone agrees he has limitations and is frustrating, but he is the least of the team’s problems right now and he’s young and cheap and nobody said he was locked in as the team’s second baseman for the next decade.

        My view is this is all the result of people watching Cesar do some dumb things on the field – and I get it – when he does dumb things they are really dumb and glaring. But, again, this does not make him a bad player, it’s part of what’s preventing him from being a very good player as opposed to just a slightly above average player.

        1. Cesar is nowhere near our best player. He’s just having the best year.

          Also, he hasn’t been driving the ball better. I mentioned before his peripherals are pretty much exactly in line with his career. The only differences are his luck on HRs and higher BABIP.

          Also worth noting: he has an abnormally high number of infield hits and bunt hits. Maybe that continues thanks to his speed, but it’s another thing we shouldn’t count on. Especially since he’s got a grand total of 61 extra base hits in almost 1300 PAs (for comparison’s sake Doobie, also not much of a power hitter, has 73 XBH in 210 fewer PAs). I imagine fielders will play him more shallow if he keeps getting infield hits and no extra base hits.

          He’s fine as a placeholder while he’s cheap, but I worry people are convincing themselves Cesar has somehow improved or that he can be something more than he is. He has not improved. He’s having a lucky year, and what he is happens to be a below-average player. Which is absolutely fine since the team is rebuilding and he’s cheap. And I’ll continue cheering for him. But, again, he’s shown nothing to suggest he’s anything more.

          1. He’s been their best player this year – sorry, but he absolutely has been – either him or Odubel, with Rupp third. Is he the player with the highest ceiling or brightest future? No way – and nobody here is arguing that he is. And, actually, he looks like he genuinely has improved – both offensively (he is driving the ball much better, it’s not just home runs) and defensively. But is he tapped out? I have no idea.

            1. So tried of talking about herdanez. He is the only guy who everyone thinks cant improve his base stealing and hit more doubles. How can people say kingery is faster. Did you time them?? How do you know he has better range? It is just amazing everyone can get better but him.

            2. @Catch,

              I did say he is having the best year. If you wanna argue that he’s been better this year based on the eye test, it is what it is. I disagree. But we’ll have to wait to see how his metrics stand after (a lot) more innings. But he’s literally within 2% of his career averages in all of LD%, GB%, FB%, Soft%, Med%, and Hard%. So he isn’t making better contact. Could be confirmation bias, or maybe he flew under the radar the past couple years. Most likely he’s just benefiting from the fact we have no one hitting better to judge his ability against consistently.

              He has some legitimate ability to put the barrel on the ball. But with no power backing it, he’s still below-average.


              I generally think players in their 10th professional season are what they are. Hitting adjustments are one thing, but bad baserunners/defenders tend to stay that way after 10 years of instruction.

              As for more doubles, how? He already hits a lot of line drives. you can’t expect him to hit more. He simply doesn’t have the power to back it up. Power doesn’t magically appear after people are done maturing (and at 26, he’s done maturing).

              I didn’t say Kingery has better range, but yes their speed has been measured. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but Cesar is consistently graded as 50-60 speed while Kingery is consistently 60-70. And you might also find this interesting:

              Basically that means Cesar is pretty good at making routine plays, and bad at everything else. He’s basically Derek Jeter defensively. And not even prime Jeter, 35+ Jeter. Kingery, meanwhile, has been getting pretty glowing reports on his glove. Including by posters on this website.

              That being said, it’s true anyone can get better. But it’s a LOT more likely for a 22 year old (with better tools) in his second season than a 26 year old in his tenth. Cesar simply hasn’t shown any progression (save maybe for defense which has a major asterisk at the moment). Why would I say he’s going to get better going forward?

            3. Roccom yet Hernandez stole more bases at the same points in their MiL career. Not to mention improving your base stealing at his age has been done and has been done with a former Phillies player.

            4. Can you explain to me your idea of no progression? You’ve yet to respond to any of my retorts, i’m assuming bc you have no way to argue my points. But no progression? Ok so raising the following numbers from last year to this year: AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, more hits, 3B, HR, more walks, his WAR (has gone up over the last 3 year) has improved as well as his D . . . i’m lost . . . is that not what progression is? or is that just luck?

              You mention his age . . . he didn’t play much as a 23 and 24 year old . . . could be developing now that he has a chance to play full time.

              Also you mentioned Kingery with more speed, what does it say about Kingery if Hernandez has more SB over their same aged seasons the minors?

  18. My biggest issue is that we are last in OBP and while we have seen major improvement from Cesar and Odubel the other young players continue to just hack away.

    It’s mind boggling.

    1. Really disappoint in Franco. He is pulling off pitches, and true he is homerun happy. Not the player I watched in minors, Someone has to get thru to him.

  19. Franco saw 4 pitches last night in 4 ABs. Mackanin said “he is HR happy” He has to develop a much better approach at the plate or he. simply, won’t become all that good. Certainly has talent, but too many awful ABs. Doobie has stopped talking BBs for 2 months and watched his BA drop accordingly. It is a skill that JP has, so even when he struggles, we see the makings of a future star. Williams has the same glaring problem and has been on a 30 game slump that limits his value because he never mixes in BBs. You almost never want to see JP out because even during a slump, he can help a rally with a good AB, make an outstanding defensive play or simply play smart baseball.

    1. Funny you mention Franco as it’s his AB’s that irritate me the most. Benchable or Fire-able offense IMO.

      Let’s pile on while we are at it and put Freddy on the bench for his CS last night. Not sure what’s going on with Pete but he better start showing some more fire.

      1. DMAR……if you check out the nine quadrants for Franco’s pitch selection and success…you will see all three on the outside from bottom, middle and top all failing.
        He must know that since when he talks, though thru his accent, he is extremely baseball and hitting intelligent. He just keeps chasing the outside pitch while opening his left hip.

        1. Mama says stupid is as stupid does. Call me harsh but this league chews em up and spits em out.

          You say he must know that so who is at fault?

          1. He has adjusted in the past….next season may see a whole new adjusted player.
            Herrera did it for the first three months this season.
            Hopefully MF can do it also.

  20. Don’t mean to come across negative, I really want the Phillies to contend again just don’t see how they get there in the near future. They lack elite talent at both the minor and major league level it seems like the front office is determined to stockpile a lot of average to slightly above average arms and bats which should allow for the team to go from bad to mediocre but won’t get them to elite again. This is the fourth year of the rebuild and next year doesn’t appear to be looking any more promising in terms of wins and losses, just very disheartened why didn’t the team bust their international pool they are flush with cash and that is one place they could have used their financial advantage without being severely penalized. Please give me reasons to think this team will contend again in the near future.

    1. I agree, the only guy who right now, that might be a top talent beside Crawford is Alfaro. The pitchers are all the same right handers who lack top of rotation stuff/. Now I am talking about guys in triple a and double a. not the lower minors. There we might have some top rotations guys, but its early

      1. Wow Cozens and Hoskins get no love. Just because guys like Ruf and Brown didn’t make the big league transition doesn’t mean those two kids won’t.

        Is it possible they come along together to be our Rizzo and Bryant?

        1. dmar its that dam park. I just don’t trust stats from reading. but your right, they could be really good. I kind of forgot them

    2. Your concern about elite talent is legitimate. Rather than insist upon fewer A grade talents in trades – they’ve played the numbers game and gone with more B+ talents knowing that the cupboard was bare and hoping to play the odds on numbers.

      This is why we are so excited about J.P. Crawford (his recent struggles aside, he’s an elite talent) and what is going on in the GCL – there appears to be some elite talent down there.

      But, yeah, I would rather have fewer higher level talents in a trade that more good talents. Take a look at the Cubs. They obtained Addison Russell (definite grade A talent at the time) for half a year of Jeff Samardija. He was a higher rated prospect than ANY of the prospects the Phillies obtained in the Cole Hamels trade. So yeah, that pisses me off more than a little bit. As I said, I’d rather have two grade A prospects than 4 or 5 grade B prospects.

    3. Dank … Agree with you. The Phillies will not contend until 2019. They should spend the next two years developing their young players in the hope of hitting on a few of them. This team will use it’s financial muscle on the already much hyped 2018 FA class. I think MacPhail and Klentak will target Manny Machado (they have a history with him from Baltimore) and a TOR pitcher like Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, or one of the Japaneses pitchers (Shoei Otani or Shintaro Fujinami) if they become available. In the meantime, Klentak will be looking to sell high on guys like Odubell and Rupp to bring in more “waves of talent”.

      1. Hinkie…….Manny Machado!
        The same who is currently a strong candidate for AL MVP.
        Do you actually think he will even sniff his FA year?
        Though MacPhail drafted Machado…I do not see the Angelos letting the face of their franchise walking.
        Otani would be the real test for this new regime…..comes down to money….we shall see what they do.

      2. Yes, Romus. Manny Machado is #1 on my “Want List” until he signs an extension with Baltimore. I’m sure the Orioles will throw fistfuls of money at him, but what if he wants to let Bryce Harper set the market value ? I’d say it’s a pretty good bet Harper hits the open market. Hey, one can hope !

        Also … I love Otani !!!

        Fujinami isn’t too shabby, either.

        1. Hinkie,
          …Otani is the one who I want to see if Middleton/MacPhail/Klentak step up.
          Teams like the Yankees, Rangers, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox and even the White Sox have all stepped in the past 3/4 years and paid out huge dollars for talent. And also now the Padres and Braves are starting to flex their muscles.
          I want to see if this new regime will practice what they have been preaching from that press conference last October.
          Otani would be that TOR guy……ala Yu Darvish/Masa Tanaka

  21. I am not as negative as you dank, but I expected to see something more positive come from this season. I mentioned Franco already, and he is young, with a lot of talent and, as Romus said, he seems to have intelligence. I still think he can get it together. But, I am disappointed in the SP, Herrera, and what appears to be a below average bat that Altherr has. I am disappointed in Williams’ season in the minors It may be necessary to go the FA route for an OF, sooner rather than later. And, the Phils will need both a #1 and a #2 SP if they are to get back to contention.

  22. The Phillies do have young talent it’s called time and development. Franco is 24 in his 1st season 22 Hr 72 rbi .246 avg.Herrera is hitting .283 13 Hr 42 rbi 19 Sb maybe 170 hits.Rupp .263 14 Hr 43 in 312 at bats, Galvis top notch d with progressive power.TJ 17 HR 35 rbi .251 avg 251 Atbats.

    1. You notice Rupp’s hitting has digressed since Chooch was traded? They should consider platooning all of the open positions and create a competition of the right play.

    1. When you’re a rule 5 selection and you ride the pine for almost the entire season, it’s pretty much a year of development sacrificed, not that he should have played regularly. Tough break for a young kid whose druthers now might be to have stayed with Tampa even though it wasn’t up to him.

      1. He will get his experience and added development in LHV next season I assume.
        But he did get one year of MLB service time plus a pension someday.

          1. rocco…..43 days in the majors to earn a minimum $34,000 annual pension plan. Just one day in the majors gets them lifetime healthcare coverage.
            Not too shabby for less than two months work! 🙂

            1. So, basically, 43 days of service essentially gets you what 20 years of service at an officer’s pay grade gets you in the United States military. Sweet deal.

            2. Maybe that one day of major league service and lifetime healthcare coverage is what inspired Moonlight Graham to quite baseball and go to medical school!

            3. I guess there is that distinct possibility when a rather obvious marginal/fringe player gets his cup of coffee, say when someone on the big club gets hurt, that teams will try to keep them for that 43 day mark, so at least they can get their minimum pension benefit.

  23. How great is Mike Trout:
    OPS+, or adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage, which adjusts for a player’s league and park….. the best hitters through their age-24 season, according to

    1. Ted Williams:… 190
    2. Ty Cobb:………. 176
    3. Lou Gehrig: ……171
    4. Mike Trout: …….170
    5. Stan Musial: …..169
    …Cooperstown may be just a formality someday. .

    1. If he keeps it up (obviously a big if), he could very well be the first unanimous decision. He and Kershaw are so far ahead of the rest of this generation it’s nuts.

      1. DMAr…only you would see that.
        That is something else.
        And he is the best fielder and runner of the bunch…….well maybe a close second behind Ty Cobb.

        1. DMAR….check out this vs another lefty HoFer:
          Griffey was elected to the Hall of Fame this year with 99.3% of the vote, the highest percentage in the history of the balloting. …. same point in their careers, Trout is better than Griffey.:

          Category— Griffey…. Trout
          HRs — 154…. 164
          RBIs— 498 ……………481
          Average— .305………. .306
          OBP — .378……….. .403
          Slugging percentage- .536… .558
          OPS— .914 ……………..961
          Stolen Bases— 80 ………….134
          Runs —473……………….. 577
          OPS+ —147 ………………170

          ….Matt Klentak, your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to go get him.

            1. $50M per year is a little more than I would think the Phillies would pay.
              Unless COMCAST restructures the $2.5B contract.

          1. Let’s see. I will trade Moniak (since we won’t need a CF), Odubel (since we won’t need a CF), any catcher not named Alfaro, any three of our top young pitchers (hope the Angels know nothing about Sixto), and a player to be named later which would eventually be our 1st round pick in ’17.

            1. ….and maybe that was the method to MacPhail’s madness in hiring Klentak. He might have an inside track on either trading with LAA for Trout or signing Trout as a free agent.

              ….okay, maybe I’m just spit balling here.

            2. No matter how much the Phillies would have to give up…Trout would put the fans back in the seats.

          2. LOL I love Trout too but we got no shot at trading for him unless we want to put ourselves in the same boat the Angels are in with him.

  24. Here’s some young stud prospects that took some time in developing. Bradley Jr, Buxton, Bogaerts that are taking some time to learn the mlb game.,

    1. On pace for 18 hr and 66 rbi’s.

      If Galvis hit 20 points higher and had a minimum .300 obp, would you consider keeping him at short with his gold glove defense?

  25. Eric D, I’m going to jump the thread down here since we can no longer reply to each other. I already answered your first post, but since you specifically targeted me I might as well answer your second one as well.

    Firstly, I didn’t answer immediately because at first I was busy and then lost power last night. Don’t assume people won’t answer you just because they haven’t after a couple of hours on a message board. Most of us get on here when we can, which is not always consistent.

    “Roccom yet Hernandez stole more bases at the same points in their MiL career. Not to mention improving your base stealing at his age has been done and has been done with a former Phillies player.”

    Just plain false. Hernandez stole 21, Kingery has 29. If you were wondering, Cesar only managed 30+ steals in 2 of his 8 full seasons. Kingery is about to do it in his first full season (he would have been at about 23 SB if we extrapolate his stats over a full season last year). As for that Phillies player that “improved” his base running? He didn’t. He was always a good base runner. He adjusted to the majors in the year after his first taste of the bigs. This is Cesar’s second full season and somehow he’s doing worse than his first.

    “Can you explain to me your idea of no progression? You’ve yet to respond to any of my retorts, i’m assuming bc you have no way to argue my points. But no progression? Ok so raising the following numbers from last year to this year: AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, more hits, 3B, HR, more walks, his WAR (has gone up over the last 3 year) has improved as well as his D . . . i’m lost . . . is that not what progression is? or is that just luck?”

    Luck is exactly what it is, yes. His average, OBP, and OPS have gone up due to BABIP luck, his SLG has gone up due to fly ball luck. More hits is a combination of more PAs and the aforementioned BABIP. Walks is just because of PAs, he’s walking at exactly the same rate as last year. And WAR? It’s really not difficult to increase WAR from where he was at previously. But yes, WAR goes up in lucky years. WAR is representative of what HAS happened, not what will happen going forward.

    “You mention his age . . . he didn’t play much as a 23 and 24 year old . . . could be developing now that he has a chance to play full time.”

    Again, wrong. Between the minors, offseason ball, and the majors, Cesar had 720 PAs as a 23 year old and 571 PAs as a 24 year old. That’s all developmental time.

    “Also you mentioned Kingery with more speed, what does it say about Kingery if Hernandez has more SB over their same aged seasons the minors?”

    You really should be checking stats before quoting them. 21 is not more than 29.

  26. From Keith law’s chat today …

    Elton: I know in the past you’ve been higher on Hoskins than Cozens in the Phillies’ system. After pummeling AA this year do you think one or both makes it up next year?
    Klaw: Likely we see both next year. Still prefer Hoskins as a better hitter.

    Ridley Kemp: Andrew Pullin retired this spring, came out of retirement, and he’s having a pretty strong season. Do you know what the story is, and how good a prospect is he?
    Klaw: I don’t know the story of the retirement but he is a legit prospect and possible everyday guy.

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