The First End of Season Poll, 2016

Over the past weekend, Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle published his yearly prospect survey (The Eagle is a subscription site).  Mike requested input from about two dozen industry people who watch or cover a fair amount of games and players among the Phillies’ affiliates.  He received 15 responses and used a weighted scoring system to determine a player’s perceived value (first-place votes earning 20 points, second place 19 points, etc.).   I was one of the 15 respondents.

We were asked  to –

  • Rank the top players in the Phillies’ organization from No. 1 to No. 25, based on their present value to the organization and their major league ceiling/potential. (A weighted ballot was used, with first-place votes earning 25 points, second place 24 points, etc.)
  • Consider a player’s age and performance relative to each level he has played.
  • Not include players who are no longer with the organization, nor players who appear to be in the majors for the long haul or have had significant big league time (example: Altherr, Joseph, Goeddel, Ruf, Eflin, Edubray Ramos).
  • Consider players who appear to be in the big leagues for a brief time and who are likely will begin next season in the minor leagues.

The returns begat the following results – prospect rank (with position, current club)

  1. J.P. Crawford, SS, Lehigh Valley
  2. Jorge Alfaro, C, Reading
  3. Nick Williams, OF, Lehigh Valley
  4. Jake Thompson, P, Philadelphia
  5. Mickey Moniak, OF, Gulf Coast
  6. Dylan Cozens, OF, Reading
  7. Roman Quinn, OF, Reading
  8. Cornelius Randolph, OF, Lakewood
  9. Franklyn Kilome, P, Lakewood
  10. Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Reading
  11. Scott Kingery, 2B, Reading
  12. Andrew Knapp, C, Lehigh Valley
  13. Adonis Medina, P, Williamsport
  14. Nick Pivetta, P, Lehigh Valley
  15. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF, Gulf Coast
  16. Ricardo Pinto, P, Reading
  17. Elniery Garcia, P, Clearwater
  18. Ben Lively, P, Lehigh Valley
  19. Kevin Gowdy, P, Gulf Coast
  20. Carlos Tocci, OF, Clearwater
Others receiving multiple votes( in order of vote total):
  • Mark Appel, P, Lehigh Valley
  • Sixto Sanchez, P, Gulf Coast
  • Jimmy Cordeo, P, Reading
  • Cole Stobbe, SS, Gulf Coast
  • Jose Pujols, OF, Lakewood
  • Alberto Tirado, P, Lakewood
  • Alec Asher, P, Lehigh Valley
  • Thomas Eshelman, P, Reading
  • Drew Anderson, P, Clearwater
  • Andrew Pullin, OF, Reading
  • Cole Irvin, P, Williamsport
  • Arquimedes Gamboa, Williamsport
  • JoJo Romero, P, Williamsport
  • Malquin Canelo, SS, Clearwater
  • Tyler Viza, P, Reading
Mitch Rupert’s breakdown.
  • “JP Crawford was first on 9 of 15 ballots, and was second on two others. He also received a third, a fourth a fifth and an eighth-place vote.
  • Crawford is the first place to rank No. 1 in three straight seasons since we’ve been doing the rankings (which is almost 10 years, but I don’t have an exact year that we started).
  •  Mickey Moniak and Jake Thompson each received two first places, Nick Williams and Rhys Hoskins, one apiece.
  •  The bigger riser among the Top Ten was Dylan Cozens, up 18 spots from last season. (However, he was No. 11 in 2014 and No. 15 in 2013).
  •  Biggest drop among Top Ten: Cornelius Randolph, from fourth to eighth.
  •  Jorge Alfaro was fifth in last year’s rankings, although he hadn’t played a game in the orgamization.
  •  Forty-six different players received votes.”

For your enjoyment, here is my response to Mike.

Here is my top 25.  I had more trouble this year than last.  

I tried focusing on the prospect’s “present value to the organization and their major league ceiling/potential” as you asked.  When I tried to “consider a player’s age and performance relative to each level he has played”, things became less clear.  While I get to see most prospects during ST and XST, I get to watch the Threshers and GCL players more than any other.  The back end of my 25 is greatly influenced by these prospects even though their risk is “extreme”.  This is just an explanation on my thought process while trying to rank prospects with different abilities, skill sets, ceilings, experience, etc.  There are still a couple young kids who have caught my eye who didn’t make it here, like 6’10 LHP Kyle Young, Dominguez, Pujols, Suarez, Lucas Williams, Gamboa, Stobbe, Edgar Garcia, …
I’m sure I will have Moniak and Ortiz ranked much lower than others.  I just can’t rank them as high as other will based on 50 GCL games and other peoples projections.  
  1. Crawford, J.P. 
  2. Alfaro, Jorge
  3. Williams, Nick
  4. Thompson, Jake
  5. Lively, Ben
  6. Quinn, Roman
  7. Pivetta, Nick
  8. Hoskins, Rhys
  9. Medina, Adonis
  10. Knapp, Andrew 
  11. Kilome, Franklyn
  12. Cozens, Dylan
  13. Kingery, Scott 
  14. Pinto, Ricardo
  15. Randolph, Cornelius 
  16. Garcia, Elniery
  17. Moniak, Mickey
  18. Ortiz , Jhailyn
  19. Gowdy, Kevin
  20. Romero, JoJo
  21. Irvin , Cole
  22. Paulino, Felix
  23. Falter, Bailey 
  24. Sanchez, Sixto
  25. Fanti, Nick 

Here are the results from the 2015 poll.

J.P Crawford received 15 of 16 first place votes.  Jake Thompson received the other first place vote.  Nick Williams received 11 second place votes.  Thirty-four players received votes.  The results of the poll were as follows.

  1. J.P. Crawford                     SS     Reading                    317 points
  2. Jake Thompson                 P     Reading                    287
  3. Nick Williams                    OF    Reading                    278
  4. Cornelius Randolph      OF   Gulf Coast                253
  5. Jorge Alfaro                          C     Reading                    236
  6. Roman Quinn                    OF     Reading                    225
  7. Franklyn Kilome                 P      Williamsport         215
  8. Zach Eflin                                P      Reading                   197
  9. Ricardo Pinto                       P       Clearwater             154
  10. Carlos Tocci                          OF     Clearwater             145
  11. Aaron Altherr                       OF    Philadelphia         144
  12. Andrew Knapp                     C      Reading                   138
  13. Jarad Eickoff                         P      Philadelphia        113
  14. Scott Kingery                      2B      Lakewood             104
  15. Nick Pivetta                           P      Reading                      93
  16. Ben Lively                                P      Reading                      63
  17. Darnell Sweeney              OF     Philadelphia            59
  18. Rhys Hoskins                      1B     Clearwater                36
  19. Alberto Tirado                      P      Clearwater                34
  20. Malquin Canelo                 SS    Lakewood                  29

Others receiving multiple votes( in order of vote total):  Matt Imhof, P, Clearwater; Alec Asher, P, Lehigh Valley; Brandon Leibrandt, P,Clearwater; Dylan Cozens, OF, Clearwater; Jimmy Cordero, P, Reading; Kelly Dugan, OF, Lehigh Valley; Jose Pujols, OF Williamsport; Deivi Grullon, C, Lakewood; Willians Astudillo, C, Clearwater; Jesse Biddle, P, Lehigh Valley.

 

69 thoughts on “The First End of Season Poll, 2016

  1. I can’t even imagine someone putting Crawford 8th. He might be 8th, if you look at all the prospects on all Major League teams over the last 10 years. You can’t even say, “He is what he is.” He has a lot more room for growth and he’ll get stronger and become a far better fielder too.

    I have no qualms about Jim putting Moniak, Ortiz, Stobbe and Gowdy lower in the rankings. I’m still struggling with where to put them. Like you said, 50 games is too small a sample to put any one of them in the top 5. Some of their ceilings are so high you have to look down to see the clouds but their risk factor is also off the charts. These guys are very very young men with 4 or 5 years of proving themselves every day.

    1. I think Chase Numata should be getting some kind of consideration. He definitely is flying under radar with great season at tough position.

      1. I don’t understand the lack of love for Andrew Pullin and wonder if his stats aren’t borne out by the ‘eye test.’ (I haven’t seen him play.)

        1. It’s probably a combination of things including: (a) he was never a very highly touted prospect prior to this year; (b) he retired for a while (never a good sign); (c) his tools are not said to be the best; (d) he doesn’t really profile as a typical corner outfielder (not clear bat is good enough); and (e) the Reading effect with respect to his offensive stats. That said, when I’ve been to spring training, he has always impressed me as one of the best hitters I’ve seen, but he has going to have to hit a ton to continue to advance as a corner outfielder.

        2. Yeah, he’s hard to figure. He’s built more like a Victorino than a Burrell. He was a pitcher/outfielder in HS, and the Phillies tried him at 2B from 2012-2014, He became a full time outfielder at Clearwater in 2015. He led the FSL in HR in 2015 and was among the league leaders in outfield assists.

        3. Reminds me a bit of Steve Susdorf at the plate–but a little taller and hits for more power. That’s the big question, right? Can his bat really continue to carry him in the corners? For now, definitely. For the future? We’ll see. I’d start him again in Reading next year and make him force his way to AAA if they’re nervous about his bat.

          1. I have no evidence statistically to back this up but whenever I saw him play (only about a total of 8-10 games) he beat up on bad pitching and or fastballs while having issues and looking back on off speed stuff. What I found interesting was that when the Reading play by play guy was on either the Felske Files or Timber Talk he mentioned that Pullin struggles against secondary pitches . . . so maybe I did pick up on something or maybe we are both wrong.

    2. this was my first thought. who could put him 8th? might be time to take away their credentials.

  2. JimP…Fanti at 25!
    Here is a guy with no discernible outlandish pitch skills right now, maybe other than a deceptive delivery….not a high velo, great change-up, or breaking ball…but gets hitters out.
    That will make rocco happy I am sure.

    1. Yeah, I know I’m in the minority here. I almost didn’t post my top 25 above when I saw a comment last week that Fanti “wasn’t in the conversation for top 25 and wouldn’t make the top 50 for the org”. I’ve seen Fanti and the other GCL kids pitch. Either they are that far more advanced as teenagers than the players they pitch against or they are all just lucky as heck.

      1. JimP…to be frank I really like the kid. he could really be special …especially if he can get his velo into the 93/94 seated range
        Yes …saw the same response about him not being in the top 50…..I guess every one is entitled to their opinion.
        If he were in college he would be finishing up with his sophomore year and headed into his third year and draft year….so will like to see how he does next season to get a better gauge on him.

        1. I agree. They have him working on strengthening his legs. That should help with his velo. Actually, Fanti was drafted in 2015. This season was the equivalent of his freshman year. Or at the very least, the summer league after his freshman year. I like him, too.

      2. That was my post that the top 25 response. I simply stated Fanti was a Lhp . I usually put Lhp above Rhp in the same age group , because of they natural movement. I still wouldn’t put Sixto or Fanti in my top 20. It’s funny you made a comment about Fanti that did Make an impression on me. I heard the thing about his FB has a lot of movement .. Anyway you get see so many more prospects live then most . Great job

  3. Seriously, you’ve got to wonder about any “knowledgeable” person who would rank Crawford at #8 or Hoskins at #1. Might be better to toss out all input from those two respondents.

    1. I bet they’re the same respondent. Somebody who puts little to no stock in age/level and positional value might come up with that.

      (this is not me agreeing with either part of that ranking)

    2. The guy that gave Hoskins a #1 vote should banned from voting next year… and the guy who voted Ben Lively #5 should be put on probation…

  4. What’s nice is, as many as ten of those guys on the first list could be up in the Bigs at this time next season

    1. I will say it could be 11 that could get a taste by year end … The list shows 12 and my 12th would be Ricardo Pinto. If he’s lights out next year, and depending on injuries/trades, not inconceivable that he could make an appearance.

      1.J.P. Crawford, SS, Lehigh Valley
      2.Jorge Alfaro, C, Reading
      3.Nick Williams, OF, Lehigh Valley
      4.Jake Thompson, P, Philadelphia
      6.Dylan Cozens, OF, Reading
      7.Roman Quinn, OF, Reading
      10.Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Reading
      11.Scott Kingery, 2B, Reading
      12.Andrew Knapp, C, Lehigh Valley
      14.Nick Pivetta, P, Lehigh Valley
      16.Ricardo Pinto, P, Reading
      18.Ben Lively, P, Lehigh Valley

  5. Also interesting that Alfaro is ahead of Williams and no one is questioning that. I agree, but thought there would be more of a debate.

    1. The August Nick Williams is very underwhelming (.162/.174/.292). He’s either run out of gas or pitchers figured something out about him. If it’s the former, I’d stay with him at #2 but if it’s the latter, he needs more time in the minors to make adjustments. Alfaro exploded in Reading, so much that people were calling for Knapp and Alfaro to switch leagues. He’s tiring a bit in AA in August but nothing like Williams in AAA.

      It could also be that Alfaro looks like he’s the catcher of the future and that makes for a far better long-term major leaguer. Some people will drop Williams because they feel he’s immature but I’m moving past what’s happened. Rollins used to do it once in a while and that was when he was in his 10th year.

      1. Yes, the fact that Alfaro is a catcher who appears to have improved defensively, has a cannon for a right arm, and is hitting well and with power would make him more valuable than a corner outfielder with similar hit and power tools.

    2. Matt,
      To be honest, based on Mike’s criteria of “present value to the organization and their major league ceiling/potential”, I was almost put Alfaro as my #1, but settled on just moving him up to #2.

    3. No debate here. Alfaro may be our most important prospect with the highest ceiling at a premium position. Our outfielders rate similarly to our starting pitchers. No true aces but depth.

  6. Hi Jim, liked your list, and even more liked the amalgamated list, which I don’t know if I can quibble with any of it.

    I was surprised you had Sixto at 24. From reading your posts on him I thought you would have him at least 5 spots higher. But here you have him below Falter. Do you really like Falter better?

    1. Yes, Falter is improving at a higher level. I was surprised he was the LHP they sent to WPT. I thought Fanti and Stewart were ahead of him. Both had him by a tic on FB velo. However, Hector Berrios worked with him on his delivery and his FB jumped from 87-89 to 90-92. He’s not getting the pretty box score stats that catch everyone’s eye, but he has improved, and done it in Low A as opposed to Rookie ball.

  7. I imagine that the person who placed Crawford 8th is also the person who placed Rhys 1st. I echo some others that their credentials need to be re-evaluated. If in some world we traded J.P. for Hoskins + pretty much anyone else in our system (maybe not Alfaro or Moniak), I would be absolutely livid. Maybe Hoskins ends up having the best career of anyone to ever play for the Phillies. But right now, his value is nothing compared to Crawford. And his performance relative to age, league, and position is not really an advantage, either.

    Jim, you seem to value Lively and Pivetta WAY more than I do, and “C” and Moniak way less. I know you knocked Moniak for his lack of experience thus far, and I imagine “C” for missing so much time injured, both of which are fair. I’m just wondering if you’re seeing something I’m not on any of these guys? Any regression from “C”? A step forward in stuff for the pitchers? Or is it all just due to the years they’re having?

    Also, I have Sixto in my 15-range at this point. Are you still in wait-and-see mode because he’s still relatively inexperienced? His results combined with his scouting reports have me drooling, personally.

    1. I think youre spot on. Although, if Moniak is doing Crawford like things by the time he reaches AAA, i think wed all be very satisfied. I wouldnt trade JP for MM.

  8. I’m not a negative guy, but I’m glad to see Mark Appel didn’t make the cut. Nothing against the guy, but I was dismayed when he was voted 7th in the Reader Top 30. He’s shown nothing since he was drafted. Just the halo of being 1.1.

    Is it too early to vote Viza my break-out player for 2017?

    Lively was my break-out vote this season, and he’s acquitted himself nicely.

    1. Fritzer, agreed! You’re not negative but you can be a little crabby in the morning, especially if you didn’t poop. Am I right?

  9. Lively at 5 jumps out at me. I can’t imagine how you can possibly rate him that high. The scouting reports on him are horrible. No plus pitches. He has a low k rate and only has a good Era because of an abnormally low BABIP. So he is lucky. And here comes the “he gets weak contact” crew…well if you don’t have good stuff, do you really think his “weak contact” will continue in the show?

    Lively is a poor man’s Adam Morgan.

    1. Yes…that ranking is puzzling.
      His metrics, at the AAA level, do reveal a rather average performance this season…..K/BB% is pretty low (11%) and below average and FIP (3.9) is bordering on average also.
      I still like to see how he will do in September if he gets recalled.
      I mean…they really gave Asher and good long eval period last season…why not Lively!
      if he does have quality outings, he can always be used as an added value asset in a trade package.

    2. I agree–Lively right now doesn’t project to be anything more than a second division fifth starter; a AAAA type. Still room for improvement, I hope. Calling him a poor man’s Adam Morgan is bit grouchy.

      Regarding Viza, well, I think he’s broken-out, but he finished ranked 37th in the Reading poll. Didn’t make the original poster’s Top 25. He’s on the outside looking in, as far as his ranking goes. I suspect he’ll be higher this time next year.

  10. I posted my list on Twitter which I contributed to the Reading Eagle’s survey. Figured I’d post it here, too. I still think there’s potential for Appel to be a piece in the back end of the bullpen, which is why I had him in at 23. And while I don’t like the scouting reports, per se, for Lively, there’s something to be said for results at a high level, which is why I had him at 24.

    That being said, I wish I had squeezed Seranthony Dominguez in there in one of those spots instead.

    But like the discussion I had with Matt Winkleman and Tom Housenick on Twitter last week, it was tough to put a Top 25 together. There are a ton of quality players I left off my list. When I did my initial list of candidates, I then went through and highlighted the guys I thought MUST be in my top 25. When I did that, I highlighted 26 guys. So a guy I thought must be in the top 25 got left out. That’s not a bad thing.

    1. JP Crawford
    2. Mickey Moniak
    3. Nick Williams
    4. Jorge Alfaro
    5. Jake Thompson
    6. Franklyn Kilome
    7. Cornelius Randolph
    8. Sixto Sanchez
    9. Roman Quinn
    10. Adonis Medina
    11. Scott Kingery
    12. Kevin Gowdy
    13. Andrew Knapp
    14. Rhys Hoskins
    15. Nick Pivetta
    16. Dylan Cozens
    17. Arquimedes Gamboa
    18. Ricardo Pinto
    19. Carlos Tocci
    20. Cole Stobbe
    21. Jhailyn Ortiz
    22. Alberto Tirado
    23. Mark Appel
    24. Ben Lively
    25. Elniery Garcia

    1. Mitch, who put JP at 8? If you don’t want to call him/her out, are they journalists? Did they explain that ranking?

    2. @mitch – I know that Gamboa is only 18yo playing in WIL – but how do you see him to rank that high? I see Stobbe and Ortiz (and probably Brito too) as better position player prospect that Gamboa.

      1. I can’t watch Gamboa without thinking he’s a 10-year big leaguer. His defense is JP Crawford-esque to me. I’m not saying he’s going to be JP Crawford as a prospect, just that his defense is so fluid and advanced and athletic. And the way he moves reminds me so much of JP. Has he made some bad errors? Sure he has, he’s 18. But I’ve seen him run himself into errors because he gets to balls not many players cannot get to. AS he gets older, I think he’ll learn when to throw the ball in those situations and when it’s time to eat it. My concern about his defense isn’t zero, but it’s pretty close. He’s easily the best defensive shortstop I’ve seen in Williamsport in my 8 seasons here.

        Offensively, he got buried into such a hole at the start of the season (4 for 43) that it was going to take a miracle for him to dig out of it. But even during that streak he was squaring balls up and just hit into a ton of bad luck. But he went on a 3 to 4 week stretch in July where he hit over .300. He hits the ball to all fields from both sides of the plate. He’s not really strong enough to drive the ball for home runs yet, but he’s got a frame to build on and maybe develop some power.

        Everything he does just looks like a big leaguer. Those guys are easy to pick out at this level, especially when you consider he’s 18.

        Stobbe is the better offensive prospect at this point, but I don’t think he’s close to Gamboa defensively from what I hear. I love the in-game power from Ortiz, but his defensive profile again isn’t as impressive as Gamboa’s. I guess bottom line is Gamboa is a more complete player than those two, which is why he gets the nod over them.

        1. Mitch, I don’t believe Gamboa has played for a few weeks. I assume he is injured even though he is not listed on the DL. What is the problem?

          1. He hurt his leg a number of weeks back trying to steal a base against Mahoning Valley. He’s been sent back to Florida for rehab. I couldn’t tell you what the injury is as the team is pretty tight-lipped, but last I had heard, Gamboa still wasn’t with the team. Granted, I haven’t been around for this homestand because of the Little League World Series. I’ll be back over there next Monday.

        2. @Mitch – thanks for your response. I see that both you and MattWinks are high on Gamboa for basically the same reason. With the recent scouting success (both local and LA) and depth in the farm, I just don’t see Gamboa breaking even the Top 30. I guess it’s time for me to see him in person and start to believe

          1. I think skepticism here is valid. But he and Luke Williams, to me, are guys you have to see to understand their ability. That’s why it’s so much harder, I think, to scout hitters than pitchers at this level. Radar readings are easy to understand, as reports on breaking pitches. It’s tough to argue the the positives of a guy’s defense who has 16 errors. It’s tough to argue how well a guy swings when he’s hitting .198. At this level there’s no numbers to quantify the regularity with which Luke Williams finds the barrel of the bat. Sometimes seeing really is believing, but I don’t believe your skepticism is not misplaced. I’m just all aboard the Gamboa bandwagon. Take a look and jump on board with me if you’d like. If not, there’s plenty of other bandwagons giving free rides.

            1. @mitch – no worries. i bleed Phillies red so i support our boys and join the bandwagon!! I made a comment about Lucas Williams (and Edgar Cabral) in another thread, I’m glad that he is starting to pick up his game.

              Going back to Gamboa, it’s just hard for me to look beyond his stats without seeing Malquin Canelo. MattWinks believe that Gamboa has a higher ceiling than Canelo.

              With JPC entrench as the SS for years to come and abundance of slick fielding LA infield prospects — it’s easy for me to overlook Gamboa’s value. But I will certainly watch out for his progress in the farm.

              On another note, you mentioned about Seranthony Dominguez having a case to be part of the Top 25 (MattWinks has him @ #25). I thought Edgar Garcia is the better prospect.

            2. Garcia is almost certainly an RP, just has not made it work in a rotation, though the fastball and slider are a good start. Slick fielding shortstops with Gamboa’s athleticism and hitting potential are not that common.

            3. Kurt, as I’ve explained to others, there’s been 3 shortstops in my time here who I’ve latched on to. Edgar Duran, Malquin Canelo and Arquimedes Gamboa. There’s a definite progression among the three. I was never sure Duran would be a big leaguer, which he hasn’t been. Canelo was a better defender and hitter than Duran. And Gamboa is a much better hitter and better fielder than Canelo. And I still think Canelo is a future big leaguer.

              As for Dominguez and Garcia, like Matt I think Garcia’s future is in the bullpen, which is why I’d take Dominguez over him just because long-term he’s a rotation piece.

            4. @MattWinks/Mitch – thanks! not seeing Gamboa in action is what holding me back. I’m not hating him nor discounting him, I just think that there are low minor guys that have better value than him — Jhailyn, Stobbe and Juan Luis are the ones I can think about right now.

              With regards to Seranthony and Edgar Garcia, I agree that Edgar will end up in the bullpen – but he can be a real good BP arm with plus FB + SL combo and workable CH at age 19 — Edgar has a profile of a closer or high leverage RP which probably similar in value of a #3/#4/#5 SP. If not for the depth in SP, Edgar Garcia will be starting in LWD like Tirado.

              I like Seranthony too but I only see him as back end rotation type and at 21 yo, not sure if he has the same projection left as Edgar Garcia.

            5. Seranthony is 91-95 (often high end of that range) with good movement, will show promising slider and curveball, I like the curveball more and it can be a real hammer pitch, he will show an average to above average changeup, but the feel can be inconsistent. Potential mid rotation arm that scouts have been liking since this spring. He is older than Edgar, but has the better fastball and can match him on breaking ball, and has the other pitches.

    1. Crawford walked 3x tonight (scored a run and forced home another). Personally I don’t care if he hits .250 and has a .350+ OBP. A prototype #2 hitter, thank you.

  11. I agree with Lively he made it threw the upper levels which most 18 and 19 yr olds don’t. Stobbe looks like a 3rd Baseman with a good hit tool and power.

  12. I’m having issues with the link . . . need to be a Eagle subscriber I think.

    As far as the above lists go, I don’t get all the love for Thompson esp with someone having him at 1. I honestly think there are 4 pitchers on the Eagles list and 7 on Jim’s list who will turn out as better players. I actually see Thompson washing out pretty quickly . . . can his fastball play up in the pen to team along w his slider (haven’t been really impressed w it tho)? I said this to Mitch I believe . . . I think his ceiling is Joe Blanton . . . and I mean that in terms of a starting pitcher and a RP . . . if he continues to start (only reason for him not to is if he struggles long term) at best he’s Joe Blanton. If he can move to the pen, he could be a . . . Joe Blanton. Just my opinion which is obviously in the minority.

    1. Man, I thought I gave up quickly on prospects, but, damn, Eric, you win the prize!!!

      Look, I was and am a lot less bullish on Thompson than others here because his stuff is okay, not great. But let’s put things in perspective. The guy is only 22 and is learning how to pitch at the big league level; he might even gain some velocity over time. I think his ceiling is probably as an inning eating #3 (or 3/4), but that role has a lot of value in the big leagues. One of his strengths is that he has good breaking stuff that makes him particularly well-suited to be a starter. I think we lessen his value quite a bit if we put him in the pen.

    2. You say “Joe Blanton” as if that is an insult. Joe Blanton is a former 1st round pick who pitched mid-rotation in the bigs for five of his 10 year career. That is a good thing. Not a bad thing. You wish the Phillies had 6-7 pitchers that will do anything close to that.

      1. I won’t predict the future success of Thompson. I have only seen him pitch a couple of games for the Phillies. Hardly a great sample size for a 22 year old.

        However, just for arguments sake, lets say he turns into another Blanton. That won’t be close to good enough. Thompson wasn’t some 10th round Phillies pick signed for $150,000. He was one of three centerpieces of the Hamels trade. They expect and need him to be far superior to Blanton over the long haul. Hopefully he can. And again, for clarity, I make no prediction how he will good he will turn out to be. I just hope he can turn into a #2 type starter for many years.

      2. On this board, unless a pitcher is better than Cole Hamels, he’s fungible.

        JA Happ has had a decent career. But if you say that on this board, my god, you’re run out of town like a Hillary Clinton supporter at a NRA convention.

        1. We would like to think that 3s and 4s are fungible, but they are not, as Mike Leake and others make clear. They may be overpaid in free agency, but they are not fungible. They have value on a team and as trade bait.

  13. If the one guy has Hoskins first and Crawford 8th I’d be interested to know if maybe he ranked them by how they performed thus far this season. Would explain his 1st and 8th

      1. Finally putting it all together with the glove and bat.
        Plus defensive catcher with above average arm..
        And rather too old for level so therein lies a big factor in the plate turn around this season.
        However, first name will carry him further in the Phillies org.

  14. Superstars are hard to find, so I can see the strategy of prioritizing high risk/reward players. Those types of players will have a huge variance in rankings depending on how heavily the risk factor of that ratio is weighed.

    However, how good would a starting rotation of solid #3 SP be compared to a team with a #1, a #2 and 3 replacement level starters?

    Also curious which prospect has the best hit/power/plate discipline in the organization (regardless of position)?
    I think that player may be Hoskins, though Ortiz might project better.

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