Open Discussion: Week of August 8th

Here’s the open discussion thread for Phillies’ talk and other topics.

The Phillies completed a 4-2 week.  they took 2 of 3 from the Giants at home then flew to San Diego and took 2 of 3 from the Padres.  Their record stands at 52-61 (8-13 since the break).  The Phillies travel to Los Angeles for three games with the Dodgers (Urias, Maeda, Kazmir) then return home for a 9-game home stand that starts with the Rockies.

The Phillies are at best a long shot for a wild card spot.  They are 8 games behind the second wild card spot, currently held by the Miami Marlins.  They are 9 back in the loss column.

Their .460 winning percentage gives them the 10th worst winning percentage.  Their recent 4 wins have brought The Angels and Royals back into the race for a protected pick.

Trade Stuff

The passing of the non-waiver trade deadline doesn’t mean that trades cannot occur. Teams can still trade players from their 40-man rosters if they clear waivers.  So, we still have that to look forward to this month.

Here are some of the basics for the waiver trade period.

  • First, teams expose most if not all of the players on their 40-man rosters to revocable waivers during August.  That action does not mean a transaction is imminent.  But, it allows negotiations to begin in earnest if/when interest is shown.
  • Players on the DL are not eligible for the waiver process while on the DL.
  • A player on waivers can be claimed by one or more teams.  In the case of multiple claims, teams from the same league take priority over teams from the other league. When claims are submitted from multiple teams within the same league, the team with the lowest winning percentage is awarded the claim.
  • When a player is claimed the team has three options –
    • Pull the player back and keep him.
    • Negotiate a trade with the claiming team.  (two days to negotiate)
    • Let the player go. (The new team takes on the player’s remaining salary.)
  • If a player goes unclaimed for two days, he “passes through” waivers and his team can trade him to any other team for the rest of the season (dependent of course upon any contractual no-trade clauses or other trade limitations).
  • Players dealt after Aug. 31 are not eligible to participate in the postseason.
  • A team can pull a player back from waivers only once.
  • If a player who has been pulled back from waivers is exposed again and claimed, his rights go to the claiming team pursuant to the rules above.



133 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of August 8th

  1. Phillies now have their best composite minor league record over at least the last 45 years

    1. That is an amazing accomplishment, Jeff. It is even more so when we look back just two years ago with the Phillies near the bottom of rung of farm systems.

    2. What’s impressive about this is that this is NOT a team with loads of players who are old for their respective levels. As a group, the Phillies’ top performing prospects, if anything, are young or entirely age appropriate for their levels.

      Someone (Sam Soap?) asked a question yesterday about whether this is the best Phillies’ farm system we’ve ever seen. I was not around here during the early 70s when the Phillies were producing guys like Schmidt, Luzinski, Bowa and Mike Anderson (a GREAT prospect at the time), but I have been following the minors to a certain degree since the late 80s and there is no question whatsoever, that this is the deepest the system has ever been since I’ve been following it, and it’s not close. A more difficult question is whether this system contains more high end talent than the late 90s and early 2000s, when the system produced, Lieberthal, Rolen, Rollins, Howard, Utley and Hamels. The answer, I think, is that this system is still better because: (a) those players were spread out over about 7 or 8 years – they weren’t all top prospects at the same time; (b) the sheer volume of mid to high level talent that is currently in the system is so significant that, almost by default, it’s highly likely to produce multiple players who should be regulars or mid to top rotation starters; and (c) the system isn’t just deep – it’s fully diversified; the team has top level catching prospects, middle infield prospects, corner infield prospects, all kinds of outfield prospects and both starting and relief pitching prospects – I don’t see a weak link, which is fairly unusual.

      The real question now is how do you sift through all of this talent, continue to engineer favorable trades and not lose a lot of key players to the Rule 5 draft? As I’ve been saying, now that the Phillies have such a deep system, they need to find a way to try to convert quantity into quality – it’s a difficult task.

      1. Having the best composite minor league record over the last 45 years indicates the current farm system has [a] depth, and [b] good balance across all the levels. However, it does not equate to the best system in team history. The current system has a lot of “good” players, but not enough players with potential to be “very good” or star players at the MLB level. That’s why the Phillies system is currently ranked about 7th or 8th by the various services.

        1. Well, I can only answer the question from the late 80s on – and, in my mind, it is pretty clear to me that the system is better now than it has been at any time during the last 30 years. Your point about high level talent is a legitimate one and, at the beginning of the year, I may have agreed with you, but since the year started, several high level players have been drafted or have evolved, including Moniak, Sanchez, Ortiz and Alfaro. Also, my conclusion, as much as anything, is as much a damnation of the system over the last 30 years as it is a salute to the current system. Even when we producing our fair share of stars, the system NEVER regularly produced a lot of high quality major leaguers unlike, for example, the Cardinals.

          Also, at some point, depth comes into the equation – the more guys you have, the more likely it is that a few of them are going to develop into stars or well above average regulars. Look at Reading as an example. I don’t know which of those guys is going to be a quality major leaguers but when you’ve got like 5 to choose from – well, the odds that one or two of them will make it is greater.

          1. Catch, I have been following them since 1960. This is definitely the farm system with the most depth, but high end success remains to be seen. Utley, Rollins and Howard are the best 1B, 2B and SS in the history of the team. And Cole Hamels may very well be the best LH SP. Chris Short was very good, but had nowhere near Hamel’s success. Curt Simmons was a Philly prospect that they let get away and was very good. I do not see any close to ‘best ever’ players in the Farm now, although I am certainly happy with the potential.

        2. Of course, perception takes a while to catch up to reality. The perception of the farm system is in part based on last year when the composite record was 40 or so games over 500. How many of the so-called experts actually looked at how all the farm teams are performing this year?

      2. I understand what you are saying. Obviously a very debatable topic and one that won’t be fully answerable for 5-10 years. My thought is this … I do agree we have incredible depth, but i’m not sure we have the potential star power to match the two eras you describe. Clearly, there is still much development time for some prospects to jump up and I do hope we have the stars. If we do have star power, we could be looking at another run like the late 90s …

        1. Remember, of the players I mentioned, probably only Hamels and Rolen (and to a slightly lesser extent, Rollins), came up branded as future stars. Others developed into stars over time (Utley was a complete revelation – nobody projected him as a true star, no less a superstar, which is what he was for 5 or 6 years).

      3. @catch – I agree that there will be a number crunch by the end of the season. but the team has a lot of fungible and borderline players that can lost to keep some of the better and younger prospects.

        Howie and Chooch with be out so as Bourjous, Hellboy,Hernandez, Blanco and Paredes (that’s 7) and fungible arms like Klein, Mariot (+2) will probably join them.

        Phils might need to think who will they keep with their borderline MLB/AAA players like – Ruf, Asche, Sweeney, Featherston, Colton, Hinojosa, Garcia, Buchanan (+8) and possibly Gomez, SevGon, Araujo (+3).

        That’s half of the 40-man roster and spots for at least 20 top prospects which I will think include (Jake and Eflin are already in the 40-man) – Tier 1 (No Brainer) NickWill, Lively, Appel, Knapp, Cozens, Pinto, Pivetta (7); Tier 2 (not MLB ready but with potential) Valentin, El Garcia, Tocci, Pullin, Anderson, Canelo, Arauz, Tirado (8); Tier 3 (borderline non prospects with years in the minors) Green, Walding, Perkins, Joely, Windle, Milner, Stassi, Nunez (8).

        Tier 4 (far away but with potential) – these are mostly LA prospects. But rebuilding teams like ATL and SD might take a shot — RANGER Suarez (OH NO!) ,Grullon, Pujols, Cumana, Seranthony.

        I’m inclined to think that JPC will not be called up in Sept and might start in LHV in April, thus, no need to add in the 40-man yet.

        I can see the Phils will protect 10-12 from Rule IV and will keep a close eye on what they will do with the younger LA prospects that will be expose (Ranger is the only one I will protect).

        1. I know this won’t happen but if there is a numbers crunch getting to 40 I wouldn’t protect Goeddel. He has shown virtually nothing and I am surprised when he even hits a ball out of the infield. I would much rather protect Pullin than Goeddel if it comes down to that. Just my opinion.

          1. MKs last three Rule 5 picks (Featherston, Stumpf and Goeddel) have been less than spectacular, but then again Rule 5 selections have a very low percentage for success and guys like Herrera are the exception rather than the rule.

          2. it’s really hard to gauge Goeddel because of the opportunity he’s getting. but the depth in OF position might force the Phils to decide on him. If the Pullin will be protected, it is probably to the expense of borderline MLB players like Ruf, Asche, Sweeney, Featherstone and not Goeddel.

          3. The Phillies would not keep Goeddel on the major league roster all year long to then not protect him on the 40 man roster after the season….

      4. I’m not sure that it will be difficult for the Phils to put together their 40 man off-season or painful to lose anyone at risk of being left off. There is still a bit more of a month of minor league play to allow some borderline guys to make their case and make the decision-making harder. But by releasing Bailey and DFA’ing Hollands and Oberholtzer, the Phils are signaling a disinclination to hold onto guys who have lost some tread. I fully expect Cody Asche to become a casualty.

        Even if they add Crawford to the 40 man for call-up purposes, they can still retain Appel, Araujo, Asher, Cordero,Garcia, Sev. Gonzalez, Mariot, Morgan, Murray, Pinto, Tirado, Alfaro, Knapp, Canelo, Ruf, Valentin, Cozens, Goeddel, Quinn, Pujols, Pullin, Tocci and Williams.

        My borderline candidates are Dygestile-Therrien, Watson and and Walding; I suspect it’s only my ‘homer’ instincts that lead me to think any of these 3 would be coveted by another team. In short, I don’t see this as a period of pain leading up to Rule 5 draft day.

        1. Pujols can be left unprotected…he is still in low A and MLB teams rarely draft a guy unless they have seen AA pitching or faced AA batters.

          1. @romus – agree with AA pitching/batting. Pujols, Grullon and other young LA will be left unprotected. Ranger – a 20 yo LHP with sub 2 ERA and sub 1 WHIP and 7+/1 KK/BB — may not slip thru the holes of aggressive rebuilding teams like ATL, SD, MIL, etc.

            what do you think of Tocci, Tirado and Ranger getting selected? I think the 3 of them will not be protected (but a strong month and promotion to REA by Tocci might force the Phils).

        2. and as we’ve seen in the past, there will be very good prospects from other teams that will be exposed as well so that lowers the odds that the Phils prospects will be selected — I still remember how some of us reacted when Tocci and Tirado were not protected — and they are not even closed to being selected so as other more regarded prospects like Guduan, T Hernandez, Bucerra.

          Morgan, Quinn, Corder, Asher, Jake, Eflin are already in the 40-man – I expect them to stay — SevGon, Garcia, Murray, Araujo and Mariot still have options left so they might stick although losing them is not painful.

          NickWill, Lively, Appel, Knapp, Cozens, Pinto, Pivetta should be protected as they can contribute to the MLB right now. Phils might probably add Valentin and Garcia.

          JDT, Watson, Walding and even Green — I see them as on 30% chance of being selected because they’re too raw to burn a roster space.

          Nunez, Milner and Joely are the ones I can probably see a good chance of losing since if they click, they can stick with a MLB team.

            1. yes, they are drafted in 2013 but older than 19 so eligible for the fourth upcoming draft which is the 2016 Rule 5 Draft — so they need to be protected.

        3. I will use the same phrase I used last year when people were worried about Tirado and Tocci being taken in the Rule 5 draft: Theres a btter chance I will be the Phillies opening day starter next year than there is of Dygestile-Therrien, Watson or Walding being taken in the Rule 5 draft

          1. You are TOTALLY wrong about Tirado . . If he isn’t protected he’ll get scooped up. He’s exactly the kinda arm teams take a chance on in the Rule 5 draft. He’s been pitching better as of late as well . . . I missed that he even got promoted to Clearwater. Anyways I def think he’s gone if you don’t protect him (just my opinion). I’m not saying they will protect or must protect him as his walk rate is still high but again he’s shown flashes of what he could be. And has an arm that is obviously appealing.

            What does every one think of what Joseph is doing? I get that he isn’t hitting for avg (however I’d take .256 all day if he can walk more) and isn’t even putting up a league avg OBP but the power . . 15 HR in only 215 ABs. To give you an idea what kinda output that is, Mark Trumbo is tied w the league lead in HR w 31. He hits a HR in 14.03% of his AB. Joseph hits a HR in 14.33% of his AB. As recently as 2014 Howard had 569AB and has been as high as 616AB so let’s take the middle number and call it 585AB . . . If Joseph had that many AB he would projected to hit (I believe I’m correct w my math) 41HR. What do we have w him? Can you see him improving his hit tool as he matures as a player or is he already what he’s going to be? Could he be the right handed part of a platoon?
            vs LHP he’s hitting .286/.348/.524/.872
            vs RHP .243/.289/.500/.789
            Much more power vs RHP tho (11 HR vs 4 HR). His K rate you can live w at 23%, for a power hitter it’s not bad. He gives the Phillies a much needed power bat. If you can surround him with some guys who get on base he could be a good 5-6 hitter (I like him in the 6 hole in the future). Also ready for this . . . What if he was putting these numbers up at his natural position, Catcher. What kinda player do we have then?

            Btw you have to remember he hasn’t played much over the past several years. So I’m going to assume that he only gets better the more and more he plays.
            2013 – 36 Games (123 AB)
            2014 – 27 Games (110 AB)
            2015 – 58 Games (216 AB)
            Put it this way from 2013-2015 he’s logged 449AB. In that same time period Roman Quinn has logged almost double the AB of Joseph.

            1. On Tirado, it really depends how much progress he’s made in the eyes of scouts. People said he would get snatched up last year and it didn’t happen. We’ll see.

              Agree on Joseph – his power is exceptional and, given his sparse playing time in the minors, who says he is anywhere close to being done developing? He needs to improve his fielding and his OBP, but I wouldn’t bet against him doing just that. Everyone has conceded the first base slot to someone else (usually Hoskins), but it is not at all clear that Hoskins will be better than Joseph and I say this as huge Hoskins fan.

            2. Could be an interesting and POWERFUL platoon w Cozens (if he can’t stick in the OF or is blocked).

  2. Latest MLB Defensive Ratings by Fangraphs:
    Defensive Runs Saved…Adv. Metrics
    Franco, 3B—–13th…. negative 1.4
    Herrera, CF—–9th….1.8
    Galvis,SS —– 4th……….13.1
    Rupp, C —– 15th ……..3.4

  3. Romus, I must under value Hernandez quite a bit. By watching him play I would never have guessed he would be at 5.9 or 5th. He has always seemed average to me. Not the first or last time I may be wrong!

    1. matt13……SABR defensive grading is still evolving into something of more reliability compared to the offensive side of analytics. The ‘eye-test’ as you allude to is not unusual when looking at a player everyday. Franco on the one hand makes the most spectacular plays one can imagine, but at times loses concentration on something quite routine. And has a negative rating compared to many outstanding 3rd basemen in the game right now. Cesar, his grading surprised me to, does a lot of things well at 2nd and has better than average range which can help in his UZR. He turns the double-play as good as Chase did.

  4. I mean, I remember when Baseball America voted Ryan Brannan (who was a closer nonetheless) as the orgs best prospect. Boy, we have come a long way.

    1. Here’s how I view the farm system eras since I’ve been watching the team.

      1. Mid-late 80s until early 90s (pre-Mike Arbuckle) – a complete and unmitigated disaster. Terrible picks, terrible development. The lack of a competent farm system cost Lee Thomas his job and, oddly enough, Thomas was otherwise a pretty good GM (he assembled the 1993 almost from the ether), but he could not overcome the utter wasteland of the Phillies’ farm system. Quintessential Pick of Era: Jeff Jackson.

      2. Arbuckle Era – To some, this was the golden era of the Phillies’ farm system and, to a certain extent, this is accurate, but this era was a bit more overrated than most would care to admit. Usually, Arbuckle would hit on one pick, at most, and the rest of the draft was essentially useless (look it up for yourself in Baseball Reference). That said, when he hit – boy, it was a home run. Was there a big element of luck? I don’t know, but it probably doesn’t matter – his drafts constituted the core of the great teams of the late 2000s. Quintessential Picks: Hamels, Utley, Rolen, Rollins.

      3. Marti Woelover – Not a good era. Marti’s failing was in drafting big arms and tool shed players who, notwithstanding their athleticism, were not very good at baseball. Marti also seemed way behind the times in analytics, valuing raw tools above all else. My favorite “Marti doesn’t understand modern SABRMetrics” example was the drafting of Aaron Brown – an oldish college outfielder who had terrible plate discipline but incredible raw tools. In the 8th or 9th rounds, he would have been a fine pick – but in the second round, he was kind of a waste.

      To give Marti a little credit, he was often picking back in the draft or with no first round pick at all and many of his better prospects were traded by Amaro (although, frankly, few of them turned out to be any good either) and the idea of drafting some tool shed players (especially after the 5th or 6th round) can be a good one. When you look at this era and the current team, you realize just how valuable Sal Agostinelli – who had a fraction of the resources that were dedicated to Woelover’s crew – has been. That said, Marti went out with a little “bang” – drafting J.P. Crawford and Aaron Nola – and he may yet be vindicated with his picks of guys like Cozens, Hoskins and Pullin.

      Quintessential Picks: Anthony Hewitt, Joe Savery, Aaron Brown, J.P. Crawford, Aaron Altherr (one tool shed outfielder who will likely make it).

    1. Tim…shirley you jest!
      He doesn’t crack 90 on the velo scale!
      And you want him to be your ace!
      Replace his last name with a ‘K’ instead of an ‘H’….and that is who we are looking at as the Phillies ace.
      Go back to the drawing board and resubmit.

      1. It’s results he’s much then Sonny Gray and Archer this yr .Archer might set the new mondern day record for loss at 21 in a season . Why would I want a possible Cy Young Award winner on my the Phillies.

        1. Tim…whatever…if you like Hendricks….go for it.
          But do not go into the deep tank of disappointment if the Phillies decide not to trade for him to be their future ace.

        1. rocco…I guess.
          When I look at Hendricks and read his Brooks report…he eventually screams Kyle Kendricks with 4 and 2Smr almost identical velos…and below 90..
          BB…….”Kyle Hendricks has thrown 6,213 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2014 and 2016, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2016, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (88mph) and Change (80mph), also mixing in a Fourseam Fastball (89mph) and Curve (76mph).”
          Velo Data.
          2014….4Smr- 89.9….2Smr- 88.5
          2015….4Smr- 89.2….2Smr- 88.6
          2016….4Smr- 88.87…2Smr- 88.0

          1. This is the type of guy who get the big contract and stinks. League will catch up to him. he is having a nice year this year. Last year, he era was almost 4 if that is a ace. You can get away for a little while with low velo. but it catches up to you. you and I know it. catch knows . Almost all of baseball knows it. you have to have some decent velo. along with command, and secondary stuff three pitches at least.

            1. rocco..agree….RHPs like this do serve their purpose on a staff….for sure, they are innings-eaters that help a bullpen. But most are 4th/5th back of the end rotation guys.

            2. Agreed. For the most part, you need to stay away from those 4 or 5 year, $14-17 million a year contracts to soft tossers who “pitch to contact.” (the only phrase in sports that drives me more nuts than “pitch to contact” is “prevent defense”). Are there exceptions? Sure, there are exceptions to every rule, but, to me, one of the main reasons to have a good farm system is to avoid overpaying middle and back-end starters.

            3. Someone apparently REALLY disagrees with my point and, I suppose, believes that a team SHOULD pay 4th starters $ 17 million a year over 4 or 5 years. Good luck with that.

          2. Maybe you can’t remember as far back as 2010 but the Offense is coming back in baseball because of high veto. Hr are now being hit at a record pace. The Phillies are teaching Thompson , Elfin to pitch to contact. Hellickson and Eickhoff are avg velo in the league. As far as Hendricks I’ll take Espn , Fangraphs, Baseball America. Even Vegas word that He, s an ascending player. There isn’t really many Aces under 30 anyway. You really want one who’s 26 or under because the team is so young.

            1. Very few elite pitchers pitch to contact – it’s always been that way and I suspect it always will be that way. For every Greg Maddux there are six Justin Verlanders. Hendricks is a nice little pitcher – he might even have a dominant season in him somewhere, but the paradigm of what makes a good pitcher hasn’t shifted and the thing that is holding Eflin and Thompson back is that they pitch to contact and don’t miss bats.

            2. Tim….I will give you this…both MK and Hendricks are both Ivy League ,Dartmouth graduates….and there are not many in major league baseball. So it would not surprise me someday if he ends up a Phillie.

  5. Wow is any ball park that can keep TJ power in it. SEV finally with a clean outing. Here comes 30 pitch ing for Garcia.

  6. Bourjos will likely be returning to the major league roster soon. Who goes – Asche or Paredes?

    With all the talent in lower levels of the organization, and with all the roster fillers throughout, it would be nice to see some movement now.

    Hopefully we won’t recognize the 40man roster by the winter. An awful lot to be excised. I count half to be easily replaced.

  7. Another rough outing by Eflin. I guess we’re all trying to see who can take that step forward to be a starter consistently.

  8. The only way to prove this Hendricks is for real he has a 26 war since 2014 . He s 26 and a Ascending player ,how many # 4 starters lead the league in Era and are on pace for 15 wins . yes he in the Cy young conversation 6 of his last 7 starts he’s given up 1 run or less. I’ll take Fangraphs , Espn , BA etc word for it Over you guys .

    1. Tim….the point of the matter… think he is the ‘ace’…the one you will select to starts the first game of a playoff series or World Series…well that is your prerogative
      IMO, he is a 4th/5th guy……and if you feel the national pubs are infallible on all matters of baseball, that is also your opinion..

      1. Name me another 4th or 5th starter that leds the lead in Era 2.17 . BTW that’s only your option that he’s a 4th or 5 th starter. FANGRAPHS has him as within the forty top mlb pitchers.

    2. @tim – are u sure it’s 26 WAR? that seems to be very high. stats are used to reinforce what “eyes” cannot see but there’s nothing really special about Hendricks. The physical tools are close to league to slightly above average and same with the stats. There are probably some advance metrics that shows something about Hendricks but that WAR to me seems to be really high.

      1. KuKo….you are correct, it is a 7.6bWAR for his three year career…..and last year was below 2WAR. Heck, Joe Blanton first full three years with the As he had a 8.6WAR

        1. @romus – the 26 WAR is the first thing I saw and I knew it was wrong. How can a 26 WAR (in 3 years) go unnoticed. It’s either absurd or just a plain anomaly.

          I agree with you that the 7.6 to 7.8 WAR is about right.

    3. Tim, I’ve made no particular comment on Hendricks – for all I know he’s the exception to the rule (I can tell you that, in my personal opinion, Tanner Roark IS an exception to the rule – that dude can pitch!), but you don’t help yourself when you grossly misstate facts. 7.6 WAR ain’t 26 WAR. It’s the difference between the ace you say Hendricks is and middle/back rotation pitcher, which is what Hendricks probably is and will be.

      1. Tanner Roark and Hendricks’ velo is almost 3 mph difference….92 vs 89
        Not a lot.
        But below 90 is tough for effective.longevity

        1. The difference between 89 and 92 for a pitcher can be huge – just ask Aaron Nola.

          1. yeah…I guess what I should have posted…..up there in the rare air of 99 vs 102 it may not be a lot or a big difference but at the low end of the scale, MLB hitters will feast on it..

            1. There Tj hr was on 97 mph fastball Ultey was on a 94 mph fastball I think mlb hitters are hitting FB just fine.

            2. Yep…looks that way… Ks in this eleven year period:
              Hitters are catching up to the FB and murdering it seems.
              …… Ks…….Year
              … 30,801- 2003…
              … 31,828 -2004…
              …30,644 -2005…
              …31,655- 2006…
              … 32,189- 2007…
              …32,884- 2008…
              … 33,591- 2009 …
              … 34,306 -2010…
              … 34,488- 2011…
              … 36,426 -2012…
              … 36,710 -2013…

            3. LOL……so I am one-sided for putting up the whiff margin….but you are not for putting up only the HR data.
              HELP ME ROCCO!

            4. No I didn’t put up data I put HR ‘s from last night . You throw the k’s outwith the hr data. Because you know the Hr’s ascending in last yr and a have.say what you will that’s a fact.

        2. Wait I though soft tosser everyone under 94 . Because Madison Bumgarner I at 91 fb, even Kenta Meada Fb at 90mph, Marco Estrada fb 88,B Colon 88 mph.even Felix Hernandez fb 90 BTW great pitcher only threw his fb 40 % of the time . Maybe you heard of Doug Fisher fb 87 all these pitchers have 2 things in common. There Era is lower then 3.50 all won except Felix in double digits. Pretty rare pitchers this season most pitchers have Era above 3.50.there all doing very well O, R Porcello too. That’s with 1 the Korean 1 Lhp there about 3 or 4 more .

          1. Tim…..LHP velo and RHP velo…apples and tangerines.
            LHP can get away with that lower velo in the low to mid 90s and actually be very effective…RHPs will need more mustard to avoid being labeled as soft-tossers.

            1. Ok because all above there’s only 1 Lhp above . Korean pitchers are different breed at a young age there taught to throw at least 4 pitches . Most throw there Fb in the high 80 ‘ s low 90 ‘ s but will cut it and throw everything for strikes. Watch tonight Meada the Dogers , yanks and ,Mariners eat the Korean pitchers up.

            2. I Really say Japan pitches and Korean pitches are the same . They go by the same philosophy pitching wise

      2. That’s what Fangraphs has his war at not me . Still can’t he leads Mlb in Era, it took him 3 1/2 yrs to become a pro. Since last yr the Offense has been ascending upward . You think Roark can pitch ok I have something for you.

            1. ‘He doesn’t look like the kind of guy who scouts would peg as a #2/#3 starter, but he’s shown that’s exactly what he is over his first 54 major-league starts. In fact, if you’re interested in high pop-up, low fly-ball pitchers, there’s two names that come to mind: Kershaw and Hendricks’………..this author did not mention him as an’ ace’ or a #1 though Kershaw is definitely one…he has him as a 2 or 3, even with all the accolades and dtata to support his work.
              And that WAR number… is a hypothetical…..go by the actual calculations by Fangraphs or BR

            2. Tim- I’m gonna put this so it’s as easy to understand as possible. The writer states he is 26th in war during that time frame. There is a very large difference from having a war of 26 and having the 26th highest war. Maybe you just read the article wrong but I would think that since you have referenced at least 3 times that you know what it says. So more than likely you just want to be argumenitive and try to get a rise out of people. I’m not telling you what to do but it looks incredibly bad that you continue to double down on this “26 war” thing that you misread. Re read the article and actually read it this time.
              I have nothing against Hendricks and obviously fangraphs likes him but that doesn’t make him an ace.

            3. Ok did read out they do have him as top 40 pitcher though which is a 2 . Now if he continues to pitch the way he’s been pitching his war will be very high. It’s his 3 rd yr they know what he throws and still can’t hit it.funny his 2.17 Era is Cy Young worthy he’s won 11 games and he’s on the Cubs.

            4. 26 WAR vs 26th at WAR —- wow, that’s a big overlook especially if you will use that as a basis of a strong argument.

      3. I thing any team will take a 4th or 5th that leads the league in Era 2.17 at 133 ings pitched .he also 11 wins A 1.02 whip. If he can improve at your talking sub 2.00 Era with 200 ings pitched at around 160 hits. Not many mlb pitchers have done that in the modern era. Texas drafted both Roark and Hendricks.

        1. @tim – Hendricks maybe having breakout season and will be in the discussion for CY Young. Good for him. But being a TOR Ace – pitchers need to have a) Pure stuff (quality of pitches and command/control); b) statistical track record (not just one year); and c) actual recognition (i.e. CY Young Award, MVP, World Series MVP, etc). Hendricks has “NONE” of them.

          Any pitcher can have a good year and fell back to the ground because of lack of pure stuff and successful track record.

  9. One thing we can be pretty certain of is that we will need to acquire an established ace by ’18. Everybody else in the organization is #2 thru 5. VV can’t keep throwing his number of pitches.

  10. Have to like this Ken Giles line from the other day vs the Rangers
    IP 1.2…..H-3…R-0…ER-0…BB-0….K-6
    ‘There’s our guy. Ken Giles got five outs against the Texas Rangers the other night. Six of them were strikeouts. That line — six strikeouts in 1.2 innings — hadn’t happened in almost 17 years’

  11. Eflin on DL. Need another SP. I would go back to Morgan. I have really seen enough of Buchanan, and I don’t think they pick someone not on 40 man Roster.

    1. Please not Buchanan (fooled me once). Morgan should be moved to bullpen regardless of how he’s pitched recently. Lively should get a look at this point.

      Velasquez will be shut down before long so we’ll probably see a few SPs run out there including Buchanan and Morgan, come to think of it.

      1. Not if Morgan is really throwing 96 MPH – he’s still not that old; let’s give Morgan a chance to see if he’s turned the corner. That’s what this year is about.

        1. Catch if he is throwing 96, Then that thing on romus head is real hair. No way. I watch him pitch the other night. He is the same pitcher we saw. back end starter or relief pitcher long relief

          1. rocco…it Is real…paid good money to have it transported from the back to the top.
            From one of your south Philly docs on Broad Street.
            But I liked that…that was funny.

          2. I have zero idea whether or not that is true. Someone reported it on here so who knows.

            1. That was me who said he was hitting 96. I have no idea how the gun is at LHV but someone else said the other day it’s usually low. With that being said, there WERE readings of 96 in his last outting. Winkleman said he hit 95 a few times when up w the big club so I don’t know that 96 is outta the question.

  12. Lively or Morgan there stacked at Sp .they could go Sev too your only looking at 6 or 7 start’s.

  13. Romus, you’re a better man that I am. I get dizzy spells and migraines when trying to read Tim’s posts. There’s some good info in there somewhere but I can’t work that hard to figure it out.

    Love ya, Tim.

    1. Ty I’m working hard to get out of my short hand and re read everything . Some I get so much info trying to get it in short form is a pain in the :/^&^^!.

  14. Oberholtzer now an Angel. The MK Giles trade is now down to four…..with three arms (healthy) with the Phillies.

  15. Here’s a graph chart of league offense stats per game in mlb history. Now what you look for is 2010 until now is Runs, hits , Hr , rbi, s slg , and ops. Notice how since 2010 their all trending downward . Until last and this yr bigger difference , the Offense is trending up again. So is the k rate , players are really caring less about striking out more about ITS A LONG DRIVE BALL .This YR HR’S PER GAME is 3RD MOST EVER . .

    1. So your point is….correct me if I am wrong.
      Since offensive stats are climbing…..along with pitchers velo, thus…….hitters are hitting pitchers better now when the velos are higher.
      So then if you lower pitcher’s velos, then offensive stats will then be lowered and pitchers will dominate.
      So you prefer a pitching staff of pitchers that throw in the high 80s and low 90s because they then will keep hitters in check.
      I believe everyone is entitled to their opinion.

      1. I mean that would be his logic. As for Hendricks, if you want him as our number one (when he’s more like a 4, pitching like a 1/2 THIS year) then I’m glad you aren’t our GM. He’s having a great year but come on, he’s not a top of the rotation pitcher. You can repeat his ERA as many times as you want (let me verify your number, maybe he has the 2.17th best ERA in baseball 😉). He’s pitching over his head, period. And to be considered an ace he needs more than one season like this. I think of how (not on this board) some fans were calling Vance Worley the second coming of Steve Carlton yet he was doing it with smoke and mirrors (I remember one game I believe he didn’t induce one swing a miss which doesn’t bode well)

        Oh but I do like how the article says Kershaw is going down as one of the best pitchers of all time. Now this is true (he already has put together a better career than Koufax, yeah I said it haha)

        1. He has been pitching over his head his hole career then. head, His career Era is 3.03 . BA has him at 95 mph coming into the league with 70 control command. he also has a 60 CU and 60 slider that’s by a scout a know. The thing he wasn’t injury he chooses to out smart hitters .

          1. Saw him pitch in Milwaukee in May….got lit and hit by the Brew Crew
            BTW… has him at 89 velo…..look above on the link and click it.
            BA at 95???

            1. Baseball America had him coming in the league at 95. Romus you good really scout 1 game . The Phillies lit up Bumgarner does that make him a bad pitcher please . Read the article Like Thoe said ” the league becoming lazy just scouting by the radar gun”.

            2. You questioned where I seen the 95 from . It seems he throws slower to get better control command .he made his sinker and CU plus pitches he does his scouting report on every single batter. Now that’s a Ivy leaguer smarter then most batters I guess.

            3. @tim – I read the BA article you posted. The article mentioned “touched 95” but scouts said it topped at “93”. whether it touched 95 or topped at 93 — we cannot assume that his FB is graded at mid-90s. majority of his FBs sits in high 80s to low 90s. Morgan touched 95-96 recently doesn’t mean his FB grade is now mid-90s if majority still sits in the lower 90s.

              As for the quality of pitches, BA rates Hendricks with 2 plus pitches (FB and CU) and 2 fringe to average CB and SL (which sounds like a Ricardo Pinto to me). That’s not a profile of a TOR Ace not unless Hendicks had a track record of pitching mid-2 ERA and low-1 WHIP with decent K rate and amount of IP — which obviously Hendrick doesn’t have yet.

              Hendricks may be a Ace that you’re trying to point out, but he’s more of a “breakout guy” for now and not (yet) a top SP in the league. The only thing that works out for Hendricks right now is a good stat line for 2016. He needs to consistently perform in this level to really say that he is a legit stud in the league.

            4. K k the Article is form 2014 Romus asked me where I seen 95 at . His sinker is now his main pitch with CU being his out pitch.his whip is 1.02 right now.

      2. They are but the O Offense trending up and it hasn’t peak yet. The GM have figured the high velo . 2 ways 1 they now telling players wait on the FB I don’t care if you k 4 times a game as long as you hit 30 hrs .like Matt Stairs said ” I’d trade 200 k’s for 35 Hr’s “. See understanding physic 101 when high velo Fb is coming in at 97 mph you guess right you can nice easy swing let the ball velo do all the work. There only there only 20 mlb hitting 305 or better . Now Hr guys Todd Fazier .213 31 Hr’s, Duvall .239 26 hr obp 292, Chris Carter .217 25 hrs .306 obp.Kemp 24 hr .288 obp. There some of course some very good All around hitters . This HR total will increasing as will the runs per game as will the pitcher’s Era. Now 2 the injures to the pitcher’s, the more and more pitchers go under TJ surgeries the more the league will suffer . This is one that will change the league the most no GM likes there top pitchers out for a year or more. About 5 yrs MAX EFFORT PITCHING CAME AROUND . PITCH AS HARD AS YOU CAN FOR AS LONG AS YOU CAN.The SP throws 6 ings then 7 ing guy comes All throw Max Effort. No more complete games or high ings count. Wheeler on the Mets has now been out of baseball for 17 months . HARVEY is now getting getting the new Vague back surgery. The offense will keep trending up the League is adjusting to the Max Effort Pitching . That’s my option backed by proven stats this yr .

        1. Tim……now is the offense trending up on starters with high velo or relievers with high velo?.
          Starters will normally have three pitches min to work with , while relievers are two-pitch birds for the most part….batters can sit dead-red on relievers
          And nowadays, most all relievers now come in with mid90s and higher FBs

          1. I know I watch like 5 mlb games a day. VV comment ” I tried to power though the Dodgers lineup with my 95 mph Fb that didn’t go well. He threw 95 mphFB 65% ch 20 % SL crv 4 %. That part of the probelm is some of these young player s come up try to throw there Fb past everyone. Hendricks the 2nd base man hit his Hr on a 95 mph Fb.Grandal hit his on same pitch.Turner on a 94 fb you see high Velo are getting a hi rate . It’s the placement too to they have to learn to set up a hitter.

  16. I know Home runs are up but geez 5 in 5 ings . I really feel bad for VV the Dodgers lineup is really good.

  17. With Pete all but announcing the imminent end of Odubel in CF with Altherr and/or Quinn likely taking over in Sept, it would have been better if MK had tried to get a very good return on Herrera whIle he was at his highest value. Doubt he’ll ever be the trade chip he was the first half of the season.

        1. They tweeted me back and said it was bc of today’s update, said there’s a lot of issues w it right now.

          1. EricD…got this message a few minutes ago.
            Thanks for your note. We had an issue with the build this AM and need to fix several issues. Hope to have everything working by this afternoon. Sorry for any inconvenience.

            Sports Reference Feedback

  18. Was at the Stadium last night with high expectations of VV. Oh well, at least a fun night with my son in our Phillies caps. I’m a Californian now, but ALWAYS a Phillies Phan.

    1. Same with me, was at Petco for J.T.’s ill fated debut, he swung the bat well. But his pitches were high in the zone. May be leaving S.D. area. going ( near Nashville) May have to drive to Atlanta in the future, to see the Phils

  19. Loving all of the Roman Quinn promotion talk. I really don’t think he has anything left to do in the minors with his elite speed and defense. Will take 80 games and 300 ABs in a platoon with Altherr next year. Health is certainly an issue, but no need to make him a full time player in the majors with all of the depth in place.

    Only issue is, why didn’t they trade Herrera at the deadline instead of letting his perceived value drop? I see a trade to the Rangers in the off-season with Desmond signed to a one year contract this year and looking for big money in FA.

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