2016 Draft Discussion: Day Two

Here’s the thread to continue talking about the 2016 First Year Player Draft.

With the 1:1 pick, the Phillies selected Mickey Moniak – a 6’2, 190 lb HS outfielder.  He just turned 18, and has committed to UCLA.  The following is from Baseball America – 

“Moniak starred for USA Baseball’s 18U national team last summer, helping the team win a gold medal while teaming with fellow Southern Californian Blake Rutherford in the American outfield. The two players regularly are compared to each other, with Moniak having a strong spring and moving up draft boards, with many ranking him ahead of Rutherford. He’s a hitter with feel for the barrel that evokes comparisons to Christian Yelich, a fellow SoCal prep outfield product, and solid power to the gaps. Moniak runs above-average underway but explodes around the basepaths and earns plus defensive grades in center field, capable of highlight reel catches as he turned in during the 2016 Area Code Games. He’s committed to UCLA.”

Comments on players selected in the entire first round can be read on BA’s Draft Tracker.

With the 42nd pick they selected Kevin Gowdy – a 6’4, 175 lb HS RHP.  He is 18 and has committed to UCLA.

Here’s an interesting article by BA’s Hudson Belinsky on Gowdy from March 2016.

The Phillies’ selections are being tracked in our 2016 Draft Tracker.

The draft continues today and includes Rounds 3-10.  Coverage will start at 1:00 PM ET, live on MLB.com.  Preview show starts at 12:30 PM ET.

286 thoughts on “2016 Draft Discussion: Day Two

  1. Interesting how someone on this discussion board was so adamant that the Phillies would draft Puk and all the discussion about Moniak or anyone else for that matter was pointless. Remember you are only as good as the information that you get and even then the people you are getting it from probably don’t have the whole picture especially 2 weeks out from an unpredictable event such as the MLB draft.

    1. Interesting how I commented yesterday that my money was on Mickey Mo…then hours later both BA and MLB released their final mock drafts showing him as their pick.

      Coincidence? I think not =)

      1. Fritz- I’m not sure if you are hinting that you do mock drafts for BA and MLB or that they wished up and took your advice but either way I like it. 5 stars

    2. I was that guy. And I stand by my opinion that it was AJ Puk the Phillies were going to take…up until about a week ago.

      Like I said all along, whoever the Phillies take, they will be getting a tremendous prospect, probably the best one in their system at the start of next year.

      I like Moniak and love Gowdy and after their first pick today, I will be at the point where every name from then on will be new to me….

      1. Tommy you really don’t need to explain your opinion. Anyone who comes on here to judge your opinon is a loser imo. You stated, who you believe was the pick and it didn’t happen. In three years we will see who was right. I haven’t a clue is Moniak will be a great player no one does. Gowdy I know nothing about. Last night listening to mlb during the draft. Every player picked was the greatest. We know very few will be mlb players.

        1. Roccom- I am assuming you are referencing me and I didn’t judge his opinion just merely pointed out that we all have no idea what is going to happen until it actually happens (no matter who our references are). I meant no disrespect and again I apologize Tommy. I liked Moniak more than Puk but I also liked Groome more than Moniak so that shows how much I know.

      2. Tommy- I in no way meant any disrespect by my comment. I apologize because reading it again it sounds pretty bad. I was going for a “you don’t know until it happens” vibe.

      3. Listening to Almarez talk about Gowdy IMO Puk was never going to be the pick. His opinion is you can’t teach the ability to pitch that Gowdy has. Puk right now is nothing more than a hard thrower who may never have the ability to pitch.

      4. That may well be true, his last start certainly hurt his standing. Beyond that, he and Moniak were certainly close a few weeks back and Moniak is likely demanding fewer $, which also tips the scales in his favor. The problem with a guy like Puk is that he, his family, and his advisors get so used to his being ranked #1, that they get fixed bonus $ set in their minds and are unwilling to come down from that level, when it becomes less clear that he is still the #1. Now he is going to have to sign for fewer $.

      5. Tommy,

        I agree with Rocco’s comments below.

        Your debate with v1 was a classic. Lots of great information and insight from both of you.

        I learn a lot from your posts and love your enthusiasm and energy.

        BTW, I like Monak and Gowdy, too.

    3. The Puk v. Groome debate on this site was nothing short of ridiculous over the past month and a half. It got to the point where if you even requested information about another player you were clueless and should shut down your computer as it was a 2 horse race.

      I can’t imagine why the Phils didn’t take a 6’7″ lefty who can’t throw enough strikes to get thru more than 4 innings or a HS LHP who thinks his value is somewhere in line with Steven Strasberg.. What were they thinking??

  2. Is Gowdy a guy who will require over-slot money? He looks like a quality starter with a 3 pitch mix and he works exceptionally hard.

    1. Rumor is he fell due to signability concerns so I would think they would have to go over slot but who knows.

      1. Correct. Gowdy was strongly rumored to be an over-slot guy, which is a big reason he fell to #42. Gowdy was also connected to the Phillies for some time now, so I gotta think a deal was worked out in advance.

    1. Top guys seem to be high school guys that will require overslot deals:

      Horn – RHP from northern California
      Mendoza – 3B
      Luzardo, big LHP that has been up to 97, but had tommy john surgery this spring, so he’s probably not pitching this year…but likely would have been a first round pick if not for the surgery

      1. going for 3 california high schoolers with first 3 picks works for me, Horn a high school QB and committed to Cal, though with third base kind of lacking wouldnt mind Mendoza- just have to get over that last name.

        im guessing here but if ballpark of 6.5 for Moniak and 2.75 for Gowdy, even a little higher, they should be in great shape. Next pick is about 870 slot but could go to 2 million if necessary, and still have about a million to go overslot with if they do just one low senior sign round 9/10.

        1. I could be way off, but I’m assuming more like 5.5 for moniak and around 3 for Gowdy. Should know soon I guess

          1. TGunn……look at the past HSers who signed as 1.1.
            Correa in 2012 at $4.8M…way under the $7.2 M slot
            Beckham in 2008 at $6.2M….close to slot as anyone.
            Atkins DNS.
            So he could sign anywhere from a low of $5.5M to $6.5M

          2. My guess is 8 million combined for the first two picks. That would leave the Phillies 1.5 million in the black. Plus, they can spend an additional 670-thousand (5% of their total allotment) and not lose a future pick. I would be disappointed if they didn’t use most, if not all, of it.

            1. Hinkie….hate to say this….but I am thinking they are not going outside the box in regards to ‘additional 670-thousand (5% of their total allotment) ‘.
              I hope I am wrong on that.
              They have given me no indications of this type of thought process since they have been running the show since last fall…..the Giles and Goeddel events seem to be the hallmark so far. Signing Morales next month will be a good thing.
              Maybe it is still early in their management plan.

            2. Romus … What a waste of resources it would be not to use that extra 670-thousand dollars. For the price of a 500-thousand dollar luxury tax, they can bring in another higher end prep prospect..

        1. The old ‘life-changing bonus’ quote. Really, what is life changing for an 18-year old. I think $1-2 million would be pretty life changing, even for a Socal kid. If they want him, the Phillies can likely afford to give him $2 mill or a shade more. What can be truly life changing to a HS pitching phenom is an arm injury sustained in college.

          1. Phillies third pick (78) is slotted at approx $800K….so there would be some additions to be made to get him to forego Cal.
            And if Monuiak signs under as predicted, then it is a possibility for sure.

  3. Great stuff from a lot of you guys on these draft threads. Gunner was very informative along with v1 and a few others. We all have our own personality. Let’s not allow that to cloud things. Thanks for all the insight. It helped me to enjoy the anticipation of the draft all the more.


    1. I was impressed with Moniak’s poise and confidence. He didn’t seem cocky. Gave a good interview. He actually has a pulse instead of some of the wooden Indians that get in front of the camera.

    2. I was impressed with Moniak’s poise and confidence. He gave a good interview unlike some of the “wooden Indians” that get in front of the camera.

      Where would you slot him and Gowdy as prospects in the organization today?

      1. I think Moniak comes in as our number 2 prospect. I know that seems aggressive and maybe it is but typically if you get drafted #1 overall you are probably gonna be a top 50 prospect. (I think Tommy had a post a couple weeks ago on where all the high draft picks ended up being ranked directly after being drafted sorry I looked but I can’t find it) I think Gowdy ends up around 14-17 range.

        1. Here it is:

          Tommy Gunn

          May 24, 2016 at 11:16 AM

          Here’s something interesting to keep in mind as we get closer to the draft.

          I’ve seen a sentiment on this board about what bad luck the Phillies have getting the first pick in a draft with no clear #1. And also “how could anyone take AJ Puk #1 overall” and “should the Phillies really take Kyle Lewis or Corey Ray because we have so many OF prospects in the high minors and would they really be better than Cozens and Williams and Quinn?”

          So basically everyone is underrating just how good of a prospect the Phillies will actually be adding with the #1 overall pick. Yes, they not be as much of a slam dunk as Bryce Harper of Gerrit Cole, but also, just because this pick isn’t a slam dunk doesn’t mean its not going to be a tremendous prospect.

          So, anyway, Keith Law just put out his top 25 prospects in baseball list. Here is where players from last years draft (which was also similarly unsettled at the top) rank among the top 25 prospects in baseball:

          1 1 Swanson, Dansby – now ranked 11th best prospect in baseball

          1 2 Bregman, Alex – now ranked 15th best prospect in baseball

          1 3 Rodgers, Brendan – now ranked 9th best prospect in baseball

          1 5 Tucker, Kyle – now ranked among 5 honorable mention players after the top 25

          1 7 Benintendi, Andrew – now ranked 6th best prospect in baseball

          1 19 Newman, Kevin – now ranked 19th best prospect in baseball

          So lets keep this in mind —- whoever we get at 1:1 will likely be the top prospect in our system next year (assuming JP Crawford is in majors)

          — Crawford is ranked #2 on this list by the way after Luca Giolito

        2. Well who’s our #2 now? I know it changes depending on the source, but if Moniak’s ceiling is (perennial) all-star, then he’d have to be ranked above the Williams and Thompsons of the world….right?

          1. You would imagine that he would be ahead of Williams and Thompson but it depends on the publishers standards of the list. I think he ends up top 50 on almost all lists and ends up on a few top 20. Some list publishers value floor/proximity more than others while some value ceiling/potential more.

  4. Dang Braves and ..General Manager John Coppolella…took two LHPs I wanted for the Phillies to grab, at least one of ….Muler or Wentz.
    But happy also with Gowdy….any relation to Trey of SC?

    1. From what I’ve seen/read about these guys, Gowdy is more polished/advanced than Muller, though Muller has more velocity. Gowdy also has more projection than Muller, who already has the body of a grown man.

      Wenz would have been an excellent pick as well, especially being a lefty. But it seems the Phillies zeroed in on Gowdy weeks ago (at least).

      The HS pitching talent the Braves amassed with their first three picks (Anderson, Wenz, and Muller) is really impressive.

      1. Agree…the Braves have those three to add to Touki T, Allard, Blair and Newcomb.
        In 3/4 years that staff could rival the current Mets.

        1. Blair is Kyle Kedndrick and Touki is Aumont. Their Minor league Pitching isn’t as good as anticipated coming into the year.

  5. assume high schooler at start of round 3, but if the college route, the small school kid Heath Quinn- same conference as Kyle Lewis, right handed right field option, is sitting there.

    1. Jesus Luzardo for me….unless he was taken later in the 2nd last night?
      The need for a quality projectable mid-to-top of the rot. LHP still remains in the system.

      1. Yep Luzardo or Horn for me.

        I’ll leave it up to the pros to decide which one, but both are first round talents sitting there because of signability/injury issues. And the Phillies have the money and patience for either…

        1. Groome’s rep Jeff Randazzo has mentioned $4M as a price tag to sign.
          Not sure if that is correct or whether or not he will stick to it.
          But the Red Sox 12th is at $3.2M slot with total pool of approx. $7M…unless Groome and his rep come down…the Red Sox will have a big over pay (800K) and over half their total pool to sign him.
          Long shot…but maybe he doesn’t sign…goes JUCO and comes out next year.

          1. To come out in a stronger draft, get taken in an even lower slot and be offered even less money.

            That sounds about as smart as this kid is and seems very probable.

            1. Predicting next year already as a stronger class is a bit premature.
              A few TJs along the way, poor performances and everything changes
              Last summer, Moniak was nowhere close to being projected as the 1.1 in 2016

            2. Groome may roll the dice …it is a risk.
              Personally I would advise him to take the $3M and start his pro career.

          2. I suspect the Red Sox saw they could draft a clear top 5 talent at #12 and decided to roll the dice. Worst case, they don’t sign Groome and get the #13 pick in next year’s draft.

            And if Groome is asking $4M, who knows, maybe Boston can sign him for around $3.5M. That could be a real coup at #12.

            1. I thought only the top 10 picks (1:1 to 1:10), if not signed, get one pick later next year. Did that change recently?

        1. rocco…local kid from Cornwell Heights, Nolan Jones, didn’t go to 55…that was a bit of a stunner.

          1. Yeah, they had him ranked 17. HGP was my HS alma mater, so I was interested in seeing where he went. All the while hoping it wouldn’t be Philadelphia.

  6. I want to thank all of you guys for this website. I enjoy it a great deal and really rely on it for information. I was one of those Groome all the way guys and debated with TommyGunn and he convinced me I was wrong. Not for liking the kid but that he would go 1.1. I will now be a huge Mickey Moniak guy and Gowdy seems like a terrific pick. I basically just want to express my respect for all of your opinions.

  7. I don’t know how to feel about the draft. I don’t have any issues with either of the players and I don’t know pretend to know anymore than anyone else that has never seen them in person.

    I’m just somewhat underwhelmed that it feels like the Phils didn’t really do anything special to take advantage of 1.1. Maybe what the Astros pulled off is the exception but it just seems like there was no creativity to what the Phillies are doing. They didn’t go out and get a comp pick. They don’t seem to have engaged in an orchestrated campaign to get someone to fall. They just sat back and took the players, which would be totally fine for a normal draft. I guess with 1.1 I was hoping for something more.

    I mean look at how aggressive the Braves have been and this is before they are about to explode the international market on July 2.

    1. Please do not remind me..
      I am still waiting for Matt K to do something extraordinary in the amateur talent acquisition arena……signing Morales next month is a good thing…..possibly best pitcher in the LA market not named Vladimir Gutierrez…best nothing like the explosiveness of the Braves, the Cubs of 2013, 2015, the Sox and the Yankees from 2014/15 and the Rangers every year it seems..

      1. I agree with this entirely. I need to see something to convince me that this isn’t just the same old Phillies way of playing by the rules while everyone else profits.

      2. I agree with this. We need to give these guys some time to show whether they can deliver, but, given their finances and where the team stands, you want to see some extra efforts to obtain additional picks and explore talent in unusual channels. This is what they are supposed to be doing. This is what Middlefield has hired them to do and has said they would do. So, let’s see some more of that, please.

        Also, while I’m generally in on Almaraz’s view of prospects (I love the focus on hit tool combined with plate discipline and athleticism – it’s a good recipe), I’m a little concern that he is so overly fixated on finding pitchers with advanced command (this is why I couldn’t possibly see them taking Puk), that the team is not quite focused enough on elite arms. If you look at the history of baseball, especially with righties, the general rule is that, to be an ace, you need to throw pretty damned hard. Are there rare exceptions to this rule? Sure there are. Every now and then, there’s a Greg Maddux and, now perhaps, an Aaron Nola. But you don’t build an elite rotation looking for control pitchers – sorry, but it’s true. If you do that, you might find a fair share of serviceable major leaguers. But would you rather have a bunch of 3s or 4s or a rotation full of power arms that looks like what the Mets or Nationals put on the field? The question answers itself.

        1. catch….though Gowdy sitting in the low90s now T93/94 has the opportunity to get to be the 94/95 guy as he ages and gets stronger….probably nowhere near a Thor or early Strasburg….but mid-90s guys are good to have.
          As for building the future rotation for top quality vs midland quantity …I guess one or possibly two big FA signings down the road in 2018 or so may be what they are thinking of doing.

          1. Being a mid-90s guys is plenty of heat if he has good command, movement and throws several good pitches. Hopefully, he can grow into being that type of pitcher. But having pitchers like this is important, especially since their announced policy is that they will “grow” pitchers and “buy” hitters. Obviously, circumstances may dictate otherwise, but that’s how they are viewing things as they themselves have stated.

      3. Yeah, Romus – there’s gonna be a huge shakeup to the top 30 list once the dust settles after the int’l signings and trade deadline. Gonna be lots of fun Aug-Sept with call ups, too.

        1. I don’t expect much coming our way at the trade deadline. Who do we have to trade who has enough value to bring a premium prospect?

    2. I have NO idea either…I think you may have been underwhelmed no matter since there was no clear cut #1. This needs to be a solid draft. Everything has been positive so far. But it also may feel underwhelming because after the first day there is no immediate help for big team. No Nola who will make the big leagues in a year and a half. If this continues to be a solid draft we should be happy that it supplements a good minor league system. Then another boost July 2. Dont worry bout the Braves.

      1. I’d normally agree with you but I think when you have 1.1, you got to set the bar a little higher than just a solid draft. So far this draft is like last year’s, which I really liked. But coming away with a draft like last year’s when you have the first pick is less than exciting.

        1. I agree but that #1 WOW pick wasnt there and thats why i think it will be underwhelming no matter what happens.

    3. “They don’t seem to have engaged in an orchestrated campaign to get someone to fall. They just sat back and took the players, which would be totally fine for a normal draft. I guess with 1.1 I was hoping for something more.”

      1. Gowdy is one of the players the Phillies wanted to land at #42. He, reportedly, asked for a big number (probably knowing the Phillies would pay it at #42). You may have preferred a different over-slot guy, but the Phillies feel Gowdy fits the profile for what they desire in a starting pitcher.

      2. They aren’t done spending the money they saved with that 1.1 pick. There are another 38 selections left. I’m sure they’ll use it to take and sign plenty of talented prospects today and tomorrow.

  8. What about a local kid by the name of Joey Rose, 3B from Toms River as their next pick?

    1. No problem with taking the kid, but ho but in Round 10-12 a little more in line with his actual talent level as opposed to Round 3 just b/c he’s from the area??

  9. If the Phillies have a deal with someone like Mendoza or Horn (doubtful but whatever), I hope they had them tell other teams to not bother drafting them because they’re going to college so we can get a high upside underslot guy like Funkhouser here and then circle back and take Mendoza or Horn at 4.1

    1. It will be interesting who they take. CJ Whittman heard them potentially linked to Mendoza at 78. Frank Piliere had them link to a HS 1B, Robbins….

      1. Sounds like Mendoza is going to FSU. Sigh. I guess Belge or Luzardo or Laskey to get some LHP in the system.

    2. jeff ellis on scout.com didnt put Mendoza on his top 10 for today as he firmly believed Mendoza would not sign, and go to college.

  10. Some San Diego papers talking about a $7 mil bonus for Moniak. If that’s true, we really messed this up.

      1. Yeah, I understand that. But its not a great sign that we’re executing on a plan to really maximize the benefit of having 1.1.

        1. Very true. I like the Moniak pick, but he does not have the talent to pull in the highest bonus since slotting began.

    1. That may be what the Lenny S. and the Wasserman Group will start high end from their side in the negotiations…..IMO he settles somewhere in the mid-6 area

      1. There is clearly already a deal in place (father said as much last night). Mid-6 would still be bad. For what it’s worth, I don’t believe the 7 report and think it will come in around 5.5 (which is good).

  11. Not sure why, but Gowdy’s profile strikes me as similar to Jake Thompson. Can never have enough of those type of prospects.

    Also, the writeup from BA talks about his release point being at the end of his stride…ie. he has Schwimlocity.

    For all of those who are new to this board, we had a minor leaguer named Michael Schwimer, who did a few guest posts on this board and explained a pitching concept he named Schwimlocity. Which is when a pitcher’s release point is late and at end of stride. It seems faster than the actual mph reading on the gun because it is released closer to the plate. Gowdy has that.

    1. Schwimer…love me some Schwim.
      Lefties were his undoing but a free thinker for sure.
      At 6’8′ he should give the NBA a go, if baseball is now in his rear view mirror.

      1. I loved Schwim too, until he went on his diatribe about signing autographs. He lost me forever at that point. Came off as a huge jerk, and it was pretty apparent the Phillies front office saw him that way too.

    2. v1–Gowdy seems to have something that Thompson doesn’t yet have—good command, yet. Gowdy is a Nola clone in that he DOES have good command which is something that can be built upon. Pitchability is also the same as Nola’s. You previously mentioned that vAlvarez is emphasizing that command and pitchability over screaming fast balls. IMO, smart. Same as to hitters….good contact , developing power, and damn good fielding. So far I love this approach. Plenty more good surprises in store in the next 30 with that plan.

  12. If Logan Ice hadn’t been taken by the Indians at pick #72 last night, I think the Phillies would have picked him at #78 today.
    With the dearth of LHP available, I think Almaraz goes with either Jeff Belge, Jesus Luzardo, or Matt Krook. I know Pat Gillick was in to see JoJo Romero of Yavapai CC a couple of month ago, but I think the third round is too high for him. I liked Nick Lodolo a lot, but the Pirates took him in the second round.

    1. The Phillies have the advantage of going first again this morning, so they can make a lot of phone calls and do some negotiating

    2. Agreed, I expect them to go fishing for some LHP.

      I think JoJo Romero goes around 5th round. If they take him higher Gillick must really love him.

      I hope Drew Mendoza is the 3.1 pick. I know another LH bat and strong Florida State commit but we should have him in the $1.5-2m range.

      1. JoJo in the 4th round. Pick has Gillick all over it. In fact, Gillick looks like his fingerprints are on at least three if not four of the picks.

  13. We have a really good idea of who Almaraz will draft. He has two core philosophies.

    1. Position players: Hit tool above everything else.

    2. Pitchers: “I’m a believer you can’t teach somebody how to pitch. He’s got that innate ability to pitch and get hitters out and that’s what we want in this organization, frontline pitchers.”

    I absolutely LOVE both philosophical approaches. I completely agree.

    However, whether you or I agree is really irrelevant. Because this is the guy building our farm. So we should all understand and apply these filters to our current system and future draft discussions.

    1. I think Luzardo is the best fit for the Almaraz philosophy of pitching. He’s a strike thrower.

    1. Romus, everyone has an opinion but everyone else seems much higher on Moniak than Mr. Crawford.

    1. Collins may have verbally agreed but doubt he signed yet as his team is still playing in the NCAA super regionals.

  14. Ray Ozga (The Baseball Draft Report) had Moniak ranked the #3 prospect and Kevin Gowdy #22. https://baseballdraftreport.com/2016/06/09/2016-mlb-draft-final-big-500/

    3. OF Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS, California): plus bat speed; legit plus hit tool; above-average to plus speed; pretty swing; average raw power; great approach; hits it everywhere; average arm; massive improvements to arm and bat this spring; ESPN comp: Trenton Clark; BA comp: Christian Yelich and Steve Finley; have heard Adam Eaton; really like Sam Monroy’s Joe Mauer swing comp; defense and hit tool make him a very good prospect, development of functional power and a more refined approach (with a great willingness to work deeper counts) could make him a star; FAVORITE; LHH; 6-2, 190 pounds

    22. RHP Kevin Gowdy (Santa Barbara HS, California): 86-92 FB with sink, 94-95 peak; plus FB command; average 78-82 CU, above-average upside; well above-average 77-84 CB/SL, plus upside; ample deception; very good overall command; love his delivery; wise beyond his years on the mound, can look like a college pitcher mowing down overmatched competition on his best days; FAVORITE; 6-4, 170 pounds.

    Also, Eric Longenhagen said this about Moniak: “He’s more than a gap to gap hitter. He’s actually a foul line to foul line hitter. He uses the whole field”.

  15. No. 47 on MLB.com, but BA has him at 145.

    No Nebraska high school position player ever has been selected in the top two rounds or 60 picks in the Draft, but Stobbe could become the first this June. He’s an infielder with a chance to have average or better tools across the board once he moves off shortstop, and scouts love his makeup as well. He has a track record of performing on the biggest amateur stages, helped Team USA win a gold medal at the 18-and-under World Cup in Japan last September and led Millard West (Omaha) to the Nebraska Class A championship game while earning Gatorade state player of the year honors this spring.

    With his quick, compact right-handed stroke, Stobbe laces line drives to all fields. He added some strength before his senior season and drove the ball more consistently this spring, finishing among the national high school leaders with 14 home runs. He could be a .280 hitter with 15-18 homers per year in the big leagues.

    An average runner with good instincts on the bases and in the field, Stobbe lacks the quickness and arm strength to play shortstop in pro ball. He should be able to handle the offensive and defensive responsibilities at either second or third base. One scout called the Arkansas recruit a poor man’s version of Rockies rookie sensation Trevor Story, who was a supplemental first-rounder as a Texas high schooler in 2011.

  16. cant disagree too much with a third baseman there- doesnt seem like it would take much over the slot to sign him you’d think.

    1. #47 on mlb list, #100 on the baseball america list i saw..
      from an article i found after a game he hit 2 homers in:
      Those home runs might be the byproduct of Stobbe’s extra work in the weight room. He spent a good portion of this school year’s first semester working out after competing for Team USA at the Under-18 World Cup championships in Japan.

      “I was in the weight room six to seven times a day,” he said. “Last year I was hitting doubles, but this year they’re carrying out of the ballpark.”

      1. profiles as a good hitter that Almaraz like with potential to be a 5-tool player. It will be a good battle between him and Lucas Williams as the next best 3B in in the organization.

        1. I’ll tell you what . . If he’s in the gym 6-7 times a day he’s doing wayyyyyyyyyyyy more harm than good. Hell testosterone starts to decrease 45-60mins into a workout which is why they should be no longer then 60mins. Anyways think it was a typo and should be 6-7 a week (which is still too much

          1. Agree….cannot be 6/7 a day…..6/7 weekly more like it….but may be working different body areas on alternating days…upper body once day, then lower another and some cardio mixed in there also..

  17. Stobbe is ranked #47 by MLB and #145 by Baseball America. On MLB webcast they are saying he could be either a 3b or 2b. Like Moniak he is a “gymrat”. Hitter. Some talk that they thought he had a chance to be a late 1st rounder. Arkansas commit.

    1. from baseballdraftreport.com where they listed him as second top second baseman:
      I worry a little about there being too much swing-and-miss in Stobbe’s game to fully take advantage of his offensive gifts against better competition, but at his best he’s been a guy who has gotten very intriguing Brian Dozier comps.

    1. i’m hoping he falls @ 4.1 – Braves, Nats — hate them! I still want the Phils to draft a LHP — hope it’s Belge!!

    1. @jim – any info it it’s serious?? I expect the DL stint for precautionary reasons since VV is in innings limit anyway.

  18. Biceps strain is the diagnosis. Is that a precursor to something more serious or merely something that can be handled with rest and rehab?

    1. John Lackey said after the Cub game…’it is code for elbow issue’
      Not sure what that means.

  19. Every single beat writer just tweeted the same exact thing; just that he’s on DL, Garcia Up, No MRI results. Which I’m not sure is a good or bad sign. You’d think it is a Friday and the draft is going on if there was a time to try and sweep Tommy John under the rug this would be it.

  20. im not going to get any work done this afternoon; noticed the “no school” listing to Nolan Williams who just got drafted by Angels. Home schooled, and was #4 ranked for 2017 at one point, year but reclassified into this draft.

  21. ROUND 4 : Belge and Krook still available. Also, former draft pick (2013) Cavan Biggio still on the board. Matt Crohan LHP from Winthrop a possibility.

  22. Obie probably gets VV’s starts so they brought up reliever. I don’t have a problem with that. Let Eflin and Thompson get another month to force their promotion/s.

    1. There’s no guarantee that Obie gets VV’s starts. Since VV is on the DL, and the Phillies don’t need a starter yet (and they burned Obie taking up innings), they needed a reliever. Once the Phillies need a starter, they can just option down Garcia and bring up Eflin.

      1. TheGuru – they also need to DFA out of the 40-man before they can insert Eflin. It’s too early to do that if it’s only for a start or 2. Phils will will either do a bullpen shuffle, call up Buch (ouch!) and/or SevGon (ouch!).

        If the Phils call up Eflin – it might mean that VV will be out for a while.

        1. Eflin needs to be on the 40 man at the end of the year, and since it’s June, we won’t be starting his clock early. The Phillies can DFA SevGon. SevGon is a reliever at this point, I’m sure the Phillies won’t be hurting if they lose him.

          That said, you’re right, if VV is only out for a few starts, then it’ll likely be Buchanan.

          1. Velasquez so many setbacks at only 24-years old….TJ in Sep2010. missed all of 2011. In 2014 groin injury missed time and then the strained right lat muscle in his shoulder at the end of the season which happened to affect him again at the start of 2015 and was on the DL.
            He needs to stay healthy…..sounds like a recording for Roman Quinn.

  23. are all the phillies picks listed somewhere? As in the round and # of upcoming picks that havent been made yet.

      1. threw 132 pitches in that game. the game before the SP threw 140 pitches. that coach is a d**k and should be fired. that’s child abuse.

        1. “A night after San Jacinto ace, and touted Draft prospect, Devin Smeltzer struck out 20 and reached 140 pitches, Romero fanned 15, needing 132 pitches to go wire-to-wire.”

          Smeltzer (the kid who threw 140 pitches) is from Bishop Eustace here in NJ.

  24. Just got home from work, found Cole was the 3rd round pick. He played up the street from me at Millard West HS, will have to move to 3rd base. In future if Franco is still there they can move Cole to LF.

    Cole grew up about a mile from Ruf.

      1. would have expected that closer to #10 than #4 though; they should be in great shape without having to go underslot here.

  25. As soon as I saw the school I thought of Giles as the guy who originally created this site LOVED Giles when the Phils drafted him in the 9th round several years back, and also that Gillick was just spotted there the other day. Did not know Schilling went to school there.

    1. Obviously that university did not offer Sensitivity Training 101 when Curt was there.

    1. He’s 5’11 to 6’0. Quintana, Finnegan, Bauer, Salazar, Tomlin, Chatwood, McCullers, Kennedy, Ventura, Volquez, Maeda, Urias, Gray, Hellickson, Cueto, Estrada, Stroman, Gio Gonzalez all starters under 6’2.

      1. There is ABSOlUTELY NO CORRELATION between height and success for a pitcher. There have been real data-driven studies of this. The height obsession comes from scouts and coaches who are obsessed with “intimidation.” I once notice Pedro Martinez standing next to Rollins and they were/are the same height.

        1. Scouts relate height to downward plain on pitches. Whether or not your correlate this with success is obviously debatable.

          Pedro is an outlier and probably not the best example to base your argument on.

          1. Has nothing to do with being intimidating. The taller you are the more downward plane you will get on the baseball (as long as you aren’t a sidearmer). Also most of the taller pitchers will have a longer stride and will be releasing the ball closer to the plate.

            There was actually a study that came with that the best body/frame/height/weight is for a pitcher . . . Mark Prior was who they used as an example.

    2. You need to relax. You know that at least half of the players the Phillies draft will never see the big leagues right?

      1. I’d guess more like 90% of the players they draft won’t reach the big leagues and be able to stick there.

      1. JPC was/ is incredibly advanced for his age and he’s going to take at least 3.5 years. Don’t think there’s any way Moniak is in bigs in 2 – 2.5

    1. Wow. I read somewhere that said he could play in an outfield right now and would be a 70/100 in CF. Weird scoring system, but kinda interesting. I think it was Almaraz who said it.

    2. Wow, for a HS kid? That’s aggressive by any team’s standards, let alone the Phillies. I would consider it fast if he was up in 3 years.

    3. Moniak’s rise thru the system will be measured by JPC’s progress. If JPC made it to the show this year (3 years after being drafted), some will assume that Moniak can do the same (3 years) or even faster (2.5 years) since he is more advanced than JPC when both are drafted.

    1. i like Irvin better than what MLB report said. He reminds me of the pre-surgery Morgan with FB-SL combo and good control. I think Irvin has better CH, thus, I think he is better than the back of the rotation starter that MLB projects.

      Almaraz type of a pitcher than can be up and ready in 2-3 years.

  26. another Cole (Irvin) for the Phils, and another californian. From Dick Nixon’s hometown.

      1. Romus you post are so refulgent. The people on here are lucky to your post. I am just so lucky to have a friend who is so canny and refulgent.

  27. the Braves are trying to be the next Mets – they are stockings arms in their farm!

    1. Not really trying to be the Mets, IMO. Minor League Pitching is currency. They can use it to buy hitting later, if needed.

      1. @anonymous – i think it also goes the other way around. Premium position players (C, SS, CF) are also currency which the teams can use to buy hitting and pitching!

        i should get 1-star by mentioning the stinking Braves and lousy Mets at the same time but my analogy is that the Braves are stocking their farm with arms with the hope some of them will pan out and make up a future young rotation (thus, the comparison with the Mets). I think they will only trade arms if they have excess.

  28. I like Robbie Peto. Another Almaraz type of a pitcher.

    He can be the under the radar type prospect like Bailey Falter.

  29. Ty guys I had a shot in back today so I was behind . I like it so far 3rd , pitchers great things to hear on micky mo . VV I HOPE IS OK Phillies are sitting on a couple Billion dollars collecting interest in their bank accounts.lets get a high price international pitcher.

  30. Heading to the sixth round. There’s a pitcher from Twin Valley HS (near Reading, I think) who I’d like to see the Phillies draft in this area of the draft. A J Alexy is a RHP with promise. He’s commited to Radford so I don’t think he’ll be commanding a huge signing bonus.

    1. yes, near reading. somebody who knows somebody indicated he was hearing maybe 6th round area from at least 1 team.

  31. Joey Rose Toms River north 3rd baseman went to the Angels in the 5th. Some reason Angels like hitters from that region

  32. David Martinelli, OF Dallas Baptist. Good program. They have a really good power hitter available in Darick Hall, who was also a very good pitcher.

  33. Tyler Mondile to the Reds … one pick after the Phillies take CF David Martinelli. BTW … Jim Callis says he had Martinelli as a 2nd or 3rd round talent.

    1. They had Martinelli ranked 74th.

      Here’s the write up (By the way, question for those of you who follow this more closely than I do, is it unusual for a guy to have all five tools grade out at 50 or higher but have an overall grade of 45? Seems weird to me):

      Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45

      In a down year for Texas college position players, Martinelli is a rare bright spot. He could go in the top three rounds, which would make him the highest-drafted hitter in Dallas Baptist history, ahead of fourth-rounders and future big leaguers Brandon Harper (1997) and Ryan Goins (2009).

      Martinelli has flashed five-tool talent since his days at Waxahachie (Texas) High but also raised concerns with serious swing-and-miss issues, ranking among the NCAA Division I strikeout leaders in each of his first two seasons and hitting .141 with wood bats in the Cape Cod League last summer. He has been much more consistent at the plate this spring after improving his pitch recognition and his approach, cutting his whiff rate by almost two-thirds. He’s driving the ball more consistently as well.

      Martinelli has solid speed that plays up in center field thanks to this instincts. He has seen more time in right field since injuring his hamstring and missing three weeks in March, but he should be capable of playing center as a pro. He has enough arm strength to play all three spots in the outfield.

    2. At this point, most of us have never heard of these guys. But, I love to hear things like “Jim Callis says he had Martinelli as a 2nd or 3rd round talent.”

      It gives me some perspective that the kid maybe – according to Jim Callis – has a better shot at having an impact that the average 6th rounder.

    1. I dont want to recommend that you be blocked for posting in the wrong threads but you are clearly pushing your luck!

  34. Belge and Laskey out there to lefty arms over slot a really big over slot is a kid named Milton .

    1. from the site “olehottytoddy.com”
      Henri Lartique – Junior C

      Lartique was easily the most improved player on the team this season. He posted a team leading .353 batting average, along with 4 home runs and 31 RBI’s. Lartique has some interest from MLB scouts after doing a great job behind the plate, as well as at the dish. King Henri showed some promise on defense behind the plate all season. He was also coached by one of the best catcher coaches in the country, former LSU catcher Mike Bianco.

      Lartique was the third Ole Miss Rebel in four years to be award the 1st-team All-SEC award for catcher. Stuart Turner and Will Allen are the other two. If Lartique is drafted in the top 15 rounds, I expect him to sign. His stock is at an all time high right now, so it is time to sell high. I put Lartique at a 60% of returning.

  35. Have no idea who Lartigue is. Sounds French. Possible underslot?

    There are still quite a few highly regarded HS players on the board, and at this point you have to assume they aren’t going in the first 10 rounds due to signability concerns. Horn, Mendoza, and Belge I’ve already seen mentioned here.

    Another two are Jersey LHP Adam Laskey and Illinois C Cooper Johnson. Laskey is described as having a good command of a low 90s FB (up to 93) and a potentially plus change. He’s also said to have a good overall feel for pitching, so that bodes well for future development.

    I think I’m more interested in Johnson, though. He’s pretty new to catching, but there’s talk of him already being the best defensive catcher to hit the draft since Hedges. The bat is a question mark, which is why he’s not a first rounder, but there’s power potential. If they’re confident they can work out an overslot with him, I’d roll the dice on him with a pick in the first 10 rounds. That’s a lot of potential value. If he can take a walk and hit for decent power, that kind of defense will carry you to the All Star Game at catcher.

    So my hope is they have a good feel for what he’s asking for, have the money to swing a deal, and grab him by the 10th. Then in the 11th take whatever HS pitcher they feel is the best and see if they can swing a deal with him, too.


    1. They’ll probably take a couple (few ?) of those hard-to-sign HS players in rounds 11-40. Not sure where there slot-bonus budget stands right now, but if they have anything saved, maybe they sign someone. Last year, they signed Nick Fanti and Ben Pelletier after the 10th round.

        1. Yeah. Joe “The Beer Vendor at CBP’s” son is getting drafted in the 38th round
          And Chris Wheeler’s mailman’s nephew is going to be picked in the 39th round.

  36. Do the go with “signable guys” through round 10 and then go for one of the higher bonus high school guys at 11? They don’t want to lose slot dollars if they are not sure they can sign a top 10 guy but at 11 and beyond it no longer has slot impact if they can’t sign a guy.

  37. Phils are now 2 for 4 drafting Coles this year.

    Phillies have drafted
    Cole Irvin
    Cole Stobbe

    Phillies miss out on
    Cole Ragans (Texas)
    Cole Duensing (Angels)

    Top Coles still available:
    Cole Bartels
    Cole Cardey
    Cole Jackson
    Cole Stapler
    Cole Young
    Cole Zabowski

  38. Having a hard time getting excited about this draft. Every pick was reasonable but it does not feel like we had 1.1. Just a typical draft.

    1. Can we wait two or three years and see where Moniak, Gowdy and others are before making any judgements?

      1. I’m not judging anyone I’m giving my feelings on the draft as a whole, which is that it feels like the Phils did not manipulate the draft at all. Which is fine for the average year but a waste of the “reward” of being worst.

        1. There’s still another day left. I don’t really read about all the HS kids that get hyped up for this situation, but there are always some interesting guys that fall because of signability. We’ll see how many the Phillies draft tomorrow and eventually sign.

          1. For sure and it’s tough to evaluate now without a sense of how much cash the Phils have remaining.

            1. I know what you are saying and I agree. You would think with 1-1 you’d come outta day 1 super excited but to be honest it feels the same as when we got Nola and Crawford. Hopefully he has the progress Nola had and Crawford had (until recent).

        2. I think they manipulated it well. The disappointment with the draft, at least for me, is that the breaks didn’t go there way. If Puk had dominated this year he would have been a great selection. Unfortunately he didn’t and the Phillies probably made the right move in passing on him. A lot of better potential 2nd round choices that were rumored to fall didn’t make it that far (especially Rutherford). I don’t think Gowdy was a bad choice. It’s more luck than anything else that didn’t go their way.

          1. I agree. Mid-First Round teams were smart and took talent and should play chicken to see if the prospects do not sign for under their demand. The team fallout is minimal, pick one spot lower if the bargain talent walks away. For Groome, Rutherford, Perez walking away could cost them millions.

            Braves were smart in trading for additional picks which allowed the to be ahead of Reds and Phillies for the “signability guys”. From review of about the consensus Top25 prospects Wentz was likely the only one to fall and Braves were there to get him.

            I still wonder if Phillies could have got Rutherford to say he would not sign with anyone other than Phillies, but to do so he would have needed a valid backup plan, like really wanting to go to UCLA.

  39. The 33rd pick from the 2012 draft starts Tuesday vs the Jays at the Rogers Center….good luck.

  40. Darick Hall- DBU
    Logan Gray- Austin Peay
    Eric Gutierrez- TTU
    Spencer Johnson- Missouri State
    Kyle Nowlin- EKU
    Mandy Alvarez- EKU
    Gavin Stupienski- UNCW

    Some guys with power still available.

  41. The WIlliamsport paper had a full page ad yesterday for all kinds of discounted tickets.
    Everybody come out to Historic Bowman Field.
    If you have some time google up Bowman Field and read about it. I watched Richie Allen, Ray Culp, Ron Swoboda, Nolan Ryan, Jim Rice, Cozens and many more play for Williamsport.

    1. Wayne,

      One of my favorite stories was visiting my uncle and aunt in Williamsport in 1962 when the Phillies visited there for an exhibition game. Ray Culp pitched for Williamsport and the then Eastern League team defeated the Phillies. The local fans were ecstatic. I was a greatly disappointed 15 year old. Great memory.


  42. Apologies if this is a dumb question I’ve just never heard it explained: I understand that HS players don’t have to sign & can opt to go to college instead. But when a kid decides to go to college are they “committed” for 4 years? I never hear about guys coming out after their freshman, sophomore, or junior year like I do in basketball or football (junior). Is there some sort of system in place that prevents college players from breaking their commitment unlike the NBA & NFL?

    1. Once they go to college, they must stay at least 3 years. After that, they can be drafted again. So essentially, a player can get drafted 3 times: HS, as a junior, as a senior.

      Aaron Nola got drafted by the Blue Jays out of HS, said no and he went to LSU and stayed for 3 years. Then got drafted by the Phillies and signed. As a junior, he could have said no and went back to school, that was his choice.

        1. Harper went to a junior college instead of a 4-year program. Those guys are always eligible (notice Jason Groome changing his commitment from Vanderbilt, where he wouldn’t be draft-eligible again for 3 years, to a JC, where he can get drafted next year if he doesn’t sign). They’re marked J1 or J2 on the draft tracker, which distinguishes them from the SO/JR/SR/5S for guys from 4-year programs.

    2. There’s a slight wrinkle in draft eligibility: college players who turn 21 early enough can be drafted as sophomores (see our own 10.1 Julian Garcia, listed by MLB as a sophomore born 5/13/95).

    3. pb,

      Or they can go to a two-year college and be eligible for the draft the very next year, I believe.


  43. Viza , 6 innings, 1 run. HR’s Cozens, Hoskins, Alfaro, Brown. LHV released Nina and Venable.
    Alonso takes Nina’s spot and Lough takes Venable’s spot and they have 24 on the roster.

    1. Bobby Dalbec 106 stikeouts. Cant hit a fastball with velo. Has trouble with off speed pitches. WHy would you want him. He hit 266 as freshman 319 as sophomore now he is back to 240 hitter. they know he cant hit a good fastball. What do you see that the scouts didn’t>>?????

        1. been following him since seeing him in the middle of his home run barrage at the cape, but he strikes out so much and scouts dont seem to think he’ll make it as a third baseman.
          may have pitched well last night, but only 1 start in his career before, and 133k in 171 career innings- hard to pick that in round 4. boston in a better position to take chances.

      1. Against Miss st tonight he pitched 8 2/3 of shout out ball . 9 k 2 w against the top hitting team in the sec Texas A&M. He might have had regression with the bat. He was on the same wooden team as Lyle Lewis this yr and out Homered him . Boston picked him so they know what to do. He was throwing 95 fb so there is something to work with .

  44. Harper quit High School after his junior year and got his GED and tried to get drafted, but they would not allow it. So he went to Southern Nevada, which is a 2 yr college so he was a sophomore when he was drafted.

  45. Frank F, I was at that game also as an 8 yr old and was rooting for Williamsport. A couple yrs later I was there for the Williamsport – NY Mets exhibition game. Ron Swoboda hit a HR in extra innings for Williamsport and they won. The Mets took Swoboda back to NYC and the only other time he was in the minors was for rehab.

  46. Harper is still one of the youngest players in the Major Leagues, and he is in his six yr. He started school early and was in his first year of college when he should have been a senior in high school but he quit and took GED and went to college. Then after 2 years of college he still was only 17 and 8 months when he was drafted.

  47. Ben Davis was talking about this tonight. Harper was younger when he was drafted after 2 years of college then 95% of the high school players.

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