2016 Draft Discussion, May 2nd

The 2016 draft discussion continues here.  These discussions will be accessible under “The Draft” menu option “2016 Draft Discussions and Picks” for reference.

Florida’s A.J. Puk was returned to his Saturday rotation slot this week end.  He struck out 10 in 6.0 innings and left with the game tied 1-1.  Florida went on to lose to South Carolina, 2-1.

A.J. Puk 6.0 4 1 1 3 10 0 0 1 0 21 25 6 1 101

Oklahoma’s Alec Hansen made an appearance in the second game of a double header this Saturday, April 30th.  He entered in the second inning with his team already trailing. Oklahoma dropped both games of the doubleheader.

Hansen – 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8 K, 26 BF, 2 WP, 107 Pitches/59 strikes

Riley Pint was reported to have hit 100 mph a couple weeks ago.  I’ve got nothing recent.

Jason Groome came off his suspension and threw a complete game, 2-hitter.  He threw 96 pitches, struck out 13, and walked 3.  His FB touched 94 mph.  Here’s more from the Asbury Park Press.


195 thoughts on “2016 Draft Discussion, May 2nd

  1. Is it a smoke screen that the Phillies will not select a high school pitcher 1st overall or is it a genuine industry fact ? From everything I read Groomes mechanics are as smooth as they come and he has a no effort delivery which means left risk for injury.

    1. Groome looks really good but if puk continues to pitch well it might end up being him. I’d rather have Groome but I’m not a scout.

    2. Give it up. The pick most likely will not be Groome. With a front office that is trending towards analytics, probability will be considered. HS Pitching at the top of the draft is an analytics “no-no”. The pick will most likely be Puk, Lewis or Corey Ray.

        1. I don’t know about Ray, but Lewis was batting .414 .536 last week and now he’s batting .428 .558 (AVG and OBP). So I’d have to believe he had a good weekend.

    3. I have thought about your comment a bunch and I think you may be right. If you are the Phillies and want to take Groome, but want to pay far below slot if possible, you leak guys like Law and Starks that you don’t want a HS arm and are in on Puk. Only helps your negotiation leverage. As you get closer to draft, you tell Groome, he can be #1 pick if he takes #5 overall pick money. That’s just smart. But you have to sell it to the industry for a proper bluff.

  2. PJ Puk he was taken form the game he was at 100 pitches plus dehydration. He was in the dugout with ice on his hand he was having crap’ s. They said nothing serious it did n’t look it. He did give up 3 doubles out of the 4 hits. All we in the first 2 ings.

    1. he was taking having craps in the dugout? That sounds serious to me but I also think that speaks of his mental makeup.

    2. I would rather have cramps then crap’s. I guess everyone in the dugout was trying to get away from him, huh?

  3. 3 hs pitchers have been taken 1# Clyde, Aiken , v Taylor, 14college pitchers 10 OF ,5 C ,12 SS ,4 3rd 3 1st. Only 2 OF came from college. Since 2007 there’s been a good record of success it’s been hs ,4 yr college every other yr were on hs his yr .

  4. Some new names Joey Wentz hs pitcher 30 ings 1 hit Era 0.00 . A Jones of PA 3rd Dodgers in heavy recruit for 1#. Moniak is a hs socal kid linked to Phillies.

  5. I don’t know why, but I just can’t get excited about Puk. He seems to throw hard and has a very high K rate against top college pitching. Maybe it is high BB%? I don’t know. I am trying to get excited about him. But I just feel that Groome has a much higher upside and I feel that the HS risk is over done. Puk just doesn’t seem to stand out to me.

    1. There have been many comps on Puk obviously, but when you think Phillies and read Phillies, the David West comparison shouldn’t have anyone really excited. Puk really does have that David West body structure. You can dream higher on Groome.

    2. Right V1 like he does have that bullish mentally his Era is around 3.00. Webb the frosh went pitch for pitch with him showed it.Nola 11-1 1.47 SR stats Logan Shore 8 -0 2.14 Era Puk 2 -2 2.93 Era I think . Funny to us Matt drafted Gallo 2nd rd from the same area .

    3. Agree completely. Doesn’t it seem that Puk continues to have “issues” concerning his command, possible back health issues, and seemingly a rash of problems showing up from time to time…whereas Groome seems to be “coasting” through his pitching assignments with a less effort delivery, smoothly. I hope they take somebody else than Puk who I believe will be a problem with synchronizing his delivery which now seems inconsistent.

      1. Not quite. But bad math aside, generally you want to see a pitcher dominate to be considered 1.1 material. When you have dominating stuff you shouldn’t average ~17 pitches to get out of an inning. The same reason I’m not overly excited about what Appel is doing in AAA.

        1. When you’re striking out almost everyone that steps to the plate, that ALONE ends up being 9 pitches an inning. It they are literally only throwing strikes. Once you account for balls and fouls it makes complete sense that he’d be at 17 pitches an inning.

          1. Well not really. He struck out 10 of the 25 batters faced. 3 walks and the hit by pitch doesn’t help the pitch count.

            Sorry but that’s excuse making. I want more than a 6 inning pitcher pitcher as the 1.1 pick.

            1. More then a 6 inning pitcher? You are talking about a high school kid (you do know they only play 7 inning games right) God forbid someone who has DOMINATED everyone hes faced (including his Jr year at a athletic powerhouse) . . not sure what more you want out of him. It’s going to be a mistake picking Puk over Groome.

  6. There have been plenty of high school pitchers drafted in the first round who went on to have success. The fact that there haven’t been 1/1 high school pitchers with success is just bad luck. The theory is that they’re farther away with more arm risk but I see it as they’ve thrown fewer innings. Bottom line, who has the higher ceiling? This just isn’t a year with an obvious 1/1 and there certainly is no Bryce Harper. There are several high school pitchers in the discussion if they’re open to hs pitchers. Groome is in the mix. And now if the Sixers get the first or second pick, we’ll have 1 or 2 in three sports…..

    1. Agree with Murray. Focusing solely on the success/injury rate of HS pitchers selected at 1:1 misses the bigger picture. To get any meaningful results, would have to expand the sample size (say top 20 picks or maybe first round picks) and also consider things such as mechanics and arm stress (e.g., throwing a lot of curve balls at too young an age). Some of this information is difficult to quantify, but to just say that the success rate of HS pitchers selected at 1:1 is low really doesn’t mean much IMO.

  7. I agree with the group here: Puk doesn’t excite me. I mean if they had the 8 pick and got a guy like Puk I’d be thrilled, but at 1-1 he has too many question marks. The David West comp was funny. I think his upside is clearly higher than big birds, but overall Groome is the guy who could be a stud. If they pass on him, I think they regret it.

  8. Does anyone know why Groome left IMG ? He made great strides there and left suddenly.

    1. Homesick may be part of it. I remember him being quoted as saying he wanted to go back and be with his buddies at Barnegat to win a state title. If he meant it that shows a pretty selfless attitude and by all accounts he is a humble kid, brought up that way.
      To the point about going 1.1, his motion would suggest that he is less likely to hurt something by an unorthodox movement, unlike most other high schoolers, who are just learning how to pitch instead of being throwers.

      1. 110% wasn’t homesick . . . Bob is correct. He wanted to test himself so he went to IMG, it was between IMG and a school in Virginia (can’t remember the name of it) . . . he preformed extremely well at IMG. His goal since he was younger was to win a HS state championship and he wanted to fulfill that with the guys he grew up with. I’ve said this a few times over the past few months, this shows the kinda mental make up the kid has.

        1. I’m not making it up, it’s what was reported. Don’t think it speaks poorly about the kid that he missed family and friends and wanted to come home.

          1. I can tell you for 110% certainty that it wasn’t because he was home sick. He probably said something like “it’s nice to be home” or something similar but that is not the reason why he is back for his Sr. season. Wouldn’t be the first false report.

  9. Theres so much talk on here about Puk and Groome like anyone has ever actually seen them pitch. At best, you’ve seen them in 30 second youtube clips, or maybe seen Puk on tv once.

    Is there just the slightest chance that everyone that loves Groome is swayed a little by the fact that he is a local kid and a little more because they are tantalized by him being a high school kid so his ceiling seems higher than Puks? Somehow a consensus was started on here that Groome was their guy, but who said that? And when? It sort of just started ans snowballed.

    There are just as many professional talent evaluators saying Groome isn’t the #1 guy as there saying that he is. One of them that is pretty plugged in (Keith Law) has been saying from the start that Groome isn’t the number one guy, and that there is no cut and dry number one prospect this year. But somehow the narrative on here is that Groome is the surefire #1 guy but the Phillies may pass him over because he’s too risky. Who says that the reason? Maybe they don’t take him because they feel Puk is better prospect. (Or Ray or Moniak or Senzel).

    I’m just saying this absolute belief on here that Groome is #1 guy and Phillies may pass him up because they’re not willing to risk pick on high school pitcher is a bit overblown.

    1. Tommy, my concern is similar to yours. I am also fearful of people thinking, “well we missed the other greatest NJ player of all time in Mike Trout”, maybe this is our chance to draft a “local” boy who is as good – in his own way !

      1. Smitty, the Phillies never had a chance to draft Mike Trout. The Angels selected him before the Phillies turn in Round #1 came around. Also, MLB does not allow trades of Draft Picks like the NBA, NFL and NHL.

    2. I have yet to see a reputable, or even a not reputable, draft write up that does not have Groome #1. And yet there seems to be a growing belief we won’t take him. Is it the HS arm thing? An off field concern? Law says there is. Does he want too much money? Has a guy like Kyle Lewis grown on us? Could we see him in RF in 2 years? Would his bonus enable us to set up the rest of our draft?

    3. Tommy … Keith Law does actually have Groome as the #1 rated prospect for the draft. http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/insider/post?id=2563
      What he has said is the Phillies would rather not draft a prep pitcher. Although last week he did say he would be more mildly surprised than extremely surprised if the Phillies selected Groome.

      Chuck: How shocked would yoou be if the Phillies draft Jason Groome … extremely or mildly ?
      Klaw: Only mildly because the class is so unsettled, but all indications I’ve heard so far have them disinclined to take a prep arm at 1.

      1. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/175743496/aj-puk-at-no-1-in-latest-mlb-mock-draft?topicid=151437456


        Jon Mayo has Groome going 8th in his mock draft posted this morning.

        Jim Callis has Groome going 3rd.

        Keith Law says Phillies most likely aren’t taking him at #1 overall.

        But yet most people on here who have never seen him pitch cant figure out how Phillies could not take him #1 overall.

        I’ve never seen him either. Not giving any opinion on him. Just saying this narrative that Phillies are crazy to pass him and take a “safer” pick like Puk is off base.

        That’s all I’m saying.

        1. If Jason Groome was from Paradise, Texas and not local NJ….most Philly posters may be leaning Puk.

          1. Couldn’t disagree more. They might not be touting Groome, but Puk isn’t the clear player to take in Groome’s place by a long shot.

            1. Phrased it wrong….same premise…..but leaning anyone but Groome..
              Now if Phillies select Puk…will you be disappointed and think it was a bad pick?

            2. Yes. No interest in Puk at all.

              Honestly would like a bat but not sure between Lewis and Ray.

          2. Groome aside Jp Puk has show no Dominating he needs to show better control and Command . There many Mlb hitters that turn a misplaced 97 mph Fb into a Hr. Winks has very good article on this.

          3. Some might–I’m not. To me, the fact that he’s from NJ matters less because of its proximity to Philadelphia than the fact that NJ has been producing premier baseball talent in recent years, even beyond Mike Trout. But I’ve been on Groome since the winter. I think he’s the no. 1 pick for his stuff, age, mechanics, continued dominance, and competitive edge. Puk shows flashes of dominance but has never been consistent throughout his college career. I could really see him turning into a bust. If he can’t get college guys out regularly, why would I think he could get upper tier professional hitters out more effectively? And you’re right, I’ve only seen Puk on TV a couple times, and have only seen Groome pitch on Youtube videos. But, so what? Does that mean we’re not allowed to have opinions? Groome represents the better AND safer pick, IMO. Live by path dependency, die by path dependency.

            1. Re: Puk vs. Groome…
              I believe that there is a difference between throwing overhand and throwing from a 3/4 aspect. Overhand (overhead) is a much less “natural’ use of the arm/elbow/shoulder joints than the 3/4 throw. The 3/4 throw is likely to cause fewer arm problems down the road. All of which I greatly favor Groome witrh his smooooth motions….as another factor favoring Groome. Puk SEEMS very inconsistent and Groome seems to stay on target. The discussion here has been entertaining and informative, Thanks. The fact that Groome is from High School makes people wary of drafting him. That may be Biddle wariness. Yet Groome seems far and away a “safer” choice because of the mechanics involved (above) to me.

        2. You’ve got their picks reversed – Callis has Groome falling to 8th. I’d be very surprised if he got passed the Braves – and also surprised that Callis has them drafting for need. Is that a new ballpark issue?

          As far as why people here are high on him – I don’t think anyone chooses to be so because he’s local. We learned our lesson with Jesse Biddle. I think we’d just like them to make a splash – having the 1/1 doesn’t come along often. And in a field where there’s not a slam dunk 1/1, he’s about the slam dunkiest. The reports have been great and his smooth delivery makes you forget about injury risks. Reports say he has good makeup as well – one thing you couldn’t say about Hamels out of HS.

          1. “Reports say he has good makeup as well – one thing you couldn’t say about Hamels out of HS.”

            Actually, no, reports do not say this:

            Joe: You have mentioned immaturity issues with Delvin Perez, are those issues enough to significantly effect his draft position?

            Klaw: Yes, for now. Groome has some similar question marks. It speaks to their talent levels that I still have them 1-2 over Corey Ray, who has outstanding makeup.

            “And in a field where there’s not a slam dunk 1/1, he’s about the slam dunkiest. ”

            Also untrue. As evidenced by Keith Law, Jim Callis, and Jon Mayo not having him as the first pick. How is he a slam dunk if none of them have him as first pick. This is what I’m talking about. People on here have anointed him as a slam dunk, and the best player in the draft but none of the experts agree he’s a slam dunk. Some have said he’s the best talent, but that doesn’t make him the best player in the draft. There’s other variables.

            Also this:

            John: Where would Groome be ranked in an average draft class?

            Klaw: Top 5. Wouldn’t have been 1-1 in the peak years of 2009-12 (Strasburg, Harper, Cole, then Buxton/Correa).
            Groome is not a slam dunk because you say it.

            1. Just because Law says something does not make him right. His word is just a opinion like anybody else’s open to scrutiny and not a fact from an all knowing person.

            2. I didn’t say he was a slam dunk. I said he was slam dunkiest, i.e. the most representative of a slam dunk. And I only say that, not because of what I know, but because he is more consistently ranked #1. The lists you are citing are mock drafts – they are prognosticating who teams will choose, not who is #1.

              It seems like you just want to argue. I only tried to answer your question as to why JG gets so much love here. We want to make a splash! And not many are feeling Puk’s splashiness (I can’t believe that passed spellcheck).

            3. No one is arguing that last part (i.e., that Groome would not be considered 1:1 from 2009-2012. However, given the lack of a clear 1:1 talent such as Harper or Strasburg, Groome is absolutely in the mix for 1:1 (i.e., most talented player in draft) in 2016. What happened from 2009 to 2012 is rather irrelevant for this discussion.

        3. PJ Puk safer where this yr he’s moving down in most drafts. He hurt his back he not dominated he only won 2 games. He’s on top college team in the country with the 2nd best defense . Florida has lost 7 games PJ Puk has started 4 of those . Jason Groome the only thing he’s doing wrong being a hs pitcher. The Phillies might go safer but PJ Puk or Klye Lewis the Phillies aren’t into toolsy players the way they once we’re . You know who MLB has as there #1 Jason Groome is funny same people voted him 1# pick him lower in mock Drafts. I seen a full game tape and some part’s of games . Eric D has seen live more then once . I’m not a scout but I never seen a pitcher like him .

    4. You are wrong about Law. He has consistently said that Groome is the #1 player. But has also said he doesn’t think the Phillies will take him 1:1. Those are two different things.

      To answer your question, Law also said that Groome had the best curveball he has ever seen from a HS pitcher. Graded it as a current 70 pitch. By all accounts he throws easy and has good command. If he has a 70 curve as a 17 year old, he has a real chance of developing it into an 80 grade pitch, which would make him a #1 starter. That is why I like him so much. I could care less where he lives.

      1. Law graded Groome’s CB a ‘current’ 70.
        We are talking Keith Law!
        I am not from Missouri, but show me the link.
        I really would like to see that report.

        1. Yeah, that’s the grade. I forgot where, but I also read him say that it was the best curve he has ever seen from a HS pitcher.

    5. Well i’ve seen him this year and have coached against him as well. Have seen maybe 6-7 of his outtings. The video doesn’t lie . . i’ve never seen less effort out of a mid 90’s fastball in my life. The secondary pitches are AT LEAST average right now. Any scout who I have talked to (only about 3 and 2 big time college coaches) say he is def the best arm in the draft with the highest ceiling. I’m going with the scouts and college coaches plus the eye test. Anyone local go check him out and you won’t disagree.

  10. Anyone else think that 96 pitches for a 17 year old after a 2 week suspension is a bit much?

    1. I think some were saying his camp was asking to see him get stretched out a bit more. Don’t know that to be 100% true but it makes sense that the scouts would want to see what his stuff was like after that many pitches.

  11. For a really thorough scouting report on AJ Puk read this https://baseballdraftreport.com/2016/04/29/aj-puk/ from The Baseball Draft Report. I love the site for information on the draft. They have more on Puk as part of this report on SEC pitchers available for the draft https://baseballdraftreport.com/2016/05/02/hudson-sheffield-tyler-jackson-shore-webb-and-puk/ It’s great stuff. Definitely worth your time.

    Go back through the site for info on other prospects, too.

    1. He references comps….I assume physical fro the most part, to other past recent college pitchers like, Manaea, Paxton, and Sean Newcomb.
      The one former SEC pitcher that no one wants to touch in a comp is David Price.

  12. Klentak and MacPhail aren’t as enamored with who might be the favorite son of local yokels as much as Monty &co. Times have officially changed. I’ve been leaning toward Groome like he’s a Tiger phenom type kid BUT now I prefer to the best overall player especially since pitching is our deepest area right now. Still fine with them taking Groome though….but I’d love to see us build our own murderers row at the same time, aye!

  13. I understanding the low probability of prep arms. But I feel our new FO will scratch below the surface of that. Let’s remember that Hamels was a prep arm too. Groome has a solid frame and good delivery/arsenal. Pitching prospects are, by nature, volatile. I hope that if the FO believes Groome is the best player in the draft, they take him. Although another path would be to take someone cheaper and less talented and try to go for a Josh Bell prep back later in the draft.

    1. “another path would be to take someone cheaper and less talented and try to go for a Josh Bell prep back later in the draft.” … I’ve been thinking this might be a good idea, too. The guy that I would look into taking at 1.1 (at a big time discount) would be Cal Quantrill. If he hadn’t gotten hurt, he may have been the 1.1 pick anyway. I read a story about him last week. He believes he’ll throw harder than pre-TJ surgery when he comes back. He threw 95 before getting hurt. When healthy, he’s the most polished pitcher in the draft. He may get back to action sometime this month. If the Phillies are OK with his medical reports, I would offer him 1.8 slot money (3.8 million dollars). Right now, nobody is predicting him to go that high. Most have him being picked mid to late first round. If they could work that out, the Phillies would save more than 5 million dollars. That would probably allow them to sign 5 or 6 top 100 guys.

      If there were more of a sure fire #1 college guy then I wouldn’t suggest this. Or, if there wasn’t an option like Quantrill (a kid previously thought of as a 1.1 pick) in play then I wouldn’t suggest this. There’s no guarantee Puk will be a better MLB pitcher than Quantrill so why not bring three or four high upside prep arms into the Phillies organization by rolling the dice with Quantrill ?

      1. This absolutely crazy. There is no way in hell you can take Cal Quantrill with the first pick.

        I’m not sure where to even start but potentially wasting what will probably be the only time you get to draft #1 overall on a guy (coming of TJ surgery) who could very well be there at your second pick is ludicrous.

        Comparing an injured Quantrill to a healthy Puk by stating theres no guarantee that Puk will be better is just dumb. By that logic why not take a guy projected to go in the 7th round? Theres no guarantee that Puk will be better than that guy slated to go in round 7 right? I mean that 7th round guy COULD be better than Puk. who knows.

        Banking on being able to come to agreements with 5 or 6 top 100 guys with the money you saved is also wildly optimistic. The odds of the right guys falling, the Phillies being able to select them, these guys being willing to sign for the money the Phillies offer (and Quantrill being a better long term play than Puk) are sky high astronomical.

        Do people realize that whoever the Phillies pick at #1 overall will by definition be signing for underslot? The draft slot value for the first pick is $9,015,000 this year. For comparisons sake Dansby Swanson got $6.5 million bonus last year as first pick. The record bonus (under the current slot system) is $8 million by Gerrit Cole. Neither Groome nor Puk, nor Ray or Lewis is commanding a draft record bonus. Their bonus will likely be at maximum $7 million, which means the Phillies are starting off immediately with $2 million in savings to use on other overslot guys.

        The pie in the sky scenario of drafting Quantrill and 6 top 100 guys is both ludicrous and unnecessary…

        1. Quantrill will probably go in the 10 thru 15 range. I even cannot see teams like the Nats or Jays passing up on him since it has proved successful for them in the past in selecting post-TJ pitchers..

        2. First of all, Romus is right. There is no way Quantrill is falling to the second round unless you’re willing to work out a Daz Cameron like predraft deal. You’re 100 percent wrong on that.

          Secondly, your pessimism on the ability to sign 5 or 6 top 100 picks makes no sense. The Phllies draft budget is 13.4 million dollars. Spending 3.8 million on Quantrill would leave 9.6 million dollars left. As a background… two years ago, the Cubs selected (and overspent on) three prep arms in rounds 4, 5, and 6. They spent 3.6 million combined on those three pitchers. BTW, the 6th round pick was Dylan Cease (not too shabby). If you don’t think the Phillies could ink four or five Dylan Cease/Jesus Luzardo type players with nine and a half million dollars then I don’t know what to say to you. Almost forgot … the Phillies can actually go 670 thousand dollars over their 13.4 million dollar budget and not lose any future draft picks.

          Lastly, comparing Quantrill to Puk is not “ludicrous”. A year ago (before his injury), Quantrill was more highly thought of. TJ surgery is not a career ender. You make AJ Puk sound like the second coming of Steven Strasburg. He’s got plenty of question marks. That’s why there’s so much arguing over who should go 1.1.

          If my option is Puk at 6.8 million or Quantrill at 3.8 million, I’d take the latter option …whether you think it’s “ludicrous” or not.

    2. You can’t get a Josh Bell situation anymore. They have a draft salary cap. You gotta take the best bats early, or hope that the 1,000 to 1 guy like AJ Reed falls to you accidentally.

    1. Scouting a high school kid versus a college kid has to be the hardest thing in the world to do. The high school kid in his whole school year might not face one kid who will go to a big time college program. or get drafted. versus a college kid who is facing better players.

      1. Today you the tournaments in the summer plus the AAU teams like Brooklawn . Most of the top 100 Hs kids have all ready know and have played against each other. Plus places like IMG Academy too, it’s funny a hs socal kid can say I hit Pint he throw me a Fb At 97 . Where a mlb can’t baseball big time different . Some hs kids have faced better pitching then college kids.

        1. I Think you missed the point. I don’t know who is better never saw either puk or jason . But tell me this 19 strikeouts in a game. How many of those kids will go to a program like Georgia or Arizona or florida state. Puk is pitching against some of the best high school kids. playing in a good conference. Now I know brooklawn and the school you mention. Most if they get a offer will be wagner. or some small division three college. Puk 11 strikeouts is way more impressive then 19 for Jason that’s all. I know he played against some good completion in florida. but how did he do. was he as dominate as he is in new jersey?? That is why to me its so hard to judge.

          1. That’s why it was so impressive to see him dominate at IMG as a Jr. You WILL find a ton of D1 talent that he faced there.

          2. IGM I think he had 44 ings 88 k’s . he pitches against Tom River North there a offense power house on sat. Groome high school is run of the mill, Puk is on the best team in college baseball. FLORIDA is 2 nd in the nation in defense. Groome has pitched against the top high school hitters at the tournament’stoo. This too, how do you know Puk 11 k’s didn’t come against 18 yr freshmam he’s 20 .Groome 16 he might be striking 18 yr olds. Groome drives 70 miles twice a wk to train , he never been injured or climbed a crane. Miami is one of the better college and hit Puk hard this yr.Puk last Start I watched yes he did k 10 in 6 ings, he also walked 4 hit a batter gave up 4 hits 3 doubles. That’s 6 ings 8 base runners, dominating no.

            1. You really make no sense. who cares if he drives to train. I know the kid is good. but you just don’t get it. he hasn’t faced the kind of players puk has. Wonder what puk numbers were in high school??? As a player climbs the ladder you get to see what he can do. doing it in high school. isn’t the same as college. if you don’t get that. Then there is no way to explain it to you. so I give up.

            2. I’m sure Puk was dominating in HS like Groome is and he should have been. With that being said he was ranked as the 13TH best LHP coming out of HS (That’s from ESPNs ranking) and drafted in the 35th round. What is so hard to see? Groome’s ONLY knock is his age and imo that could be looked at as a positive. Remember Groome is one of the youngest players in the draft as well.

            3. Coming out of high School Puk fb was 92. Groome touches 97 he aready has a higher grade breaking ball then him at 16. Groome is more polished pitcher then Puk aready.so your argument is Puk is a better pitcher then Groome just because he goes to college . Then your argument is based on Puk being a better pitcher just because he’s pitches in college against college batters . Then Joe Blanton , J Niese, B Colon are all better then Puk because thier in the mlb against mlb batters . See its flawed unless Groome is allowed to pitch against college hitters. Plus Puk was not rated the 1# prospect when he came of hs Groome is .


      2. pitch grades have nothing to do with who is in the batters box. you scout the pitch quality, not the outcome. the pitch quality is what is projectable. when Keith Law puts a 70 grade on Groome’s curve, it isn’t because a horrible NJ hitter swung and missed. It is due to the late break and the movement on the pitch.

        1. I just voiced how hard it is to judge by the competition. Going on his stuff only and there are plenty who have had great stuff and failed. its a hard thing to judge. that’s all I meant. David Clyde if I remember right had unreal stuff and what happen to him. Scouting is so hard. Keith law might see a 70 and someone else might not think its that good. I just think its very hard ,not a exact science.

          1. Impossible to predict the future. Nothing is 100%. But if you have a pitched w great stuff and great command, a much higher probability that they are successful. From what I have read, and noted above by the BA scout, Groome has better command and better off speed stuff. At 17 years old.

          2. Clyde was joke the Rangers rushed him up for attendance they kill his career that so long ago.

  14. Don’t know if anyone updated Corey Ray but the updated stats through April 30th on the Louisville website shows that he has started all 44 L’ville games this year. He is 60-187 .321; 14 doubles 1 triple, 13 home runs & 49 RBI. He has 23 walks and has struck out 29 times. His OBP is .392 & his SLG is .615. He has 35 stolen bases in 41 attempts.

  15. Most of us on here are going by what we are reading and what the consensus is and that being that Groome is the top talent in this draft this year. If anyone has been watching the Phillies this year we clearly need an high upside OF to help out our young pitchers. For this reason if we don’t take Groome I would like them to take Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer. Very high floor and very high ceiling.

    1. We have Nick Williams, C , Quinn, Cozens, etc in the system . Phillies now go after high hit tool players CBP you don’t need high power to hit – out of bere.

      1. I see it differently. I think if you play at CBP and you don’t have a line-up with its fair share of power hitters, you are costing yourself runs and wins. Yes, most of all we need good players, but among those players, we need some power hitters and I am not entirely sure how Williams and Cozens, among others, will fare at higher levels. I’m hopeful, but they are still works in progress.

        1. Nick Williams is at AAA can’t get higher then that , there’s 25 hr In his bat at CBP. I rather see A hitter that can also hit Hr then a Hr hitter that k’s 200 times a yr and hits 250. Aka Howard as per say an Ultey or Worth .

          1. Yes, he can, it’s called the major leagues and many really fine AAA prospects fizzle there. He’s promising but he’s not there yet.

  16. With it looking very likely that the Phillies will draft a pitcher at 1.1, It seems reasonable to think they could go with a bat in the second round, I’ve been on record as saying I like HS 3rd baseman Joe Rizzo if he’s there. However, there are a couple of college (SEC) players who might be possibilities. One is on the way down draft boards and one is on the way up. A couple of months ago, Nick Banks was talked about as a top 20 player. However, the Texas A&M OF has had an off year so far .290/.368/.503. I read he recently had a cyst remove from his back that was giving him some problems and has looked better since. The other name that could be a possibility is JB Woodman from Ole Miss.
    Here is the report from Scout on Woodman’s weekend … “There is hot, there is on fire, and then there was Woodman this weekend. In a three-game series against LSU, he hit at least one home run in every game. On Saturday and Sunday, he had back to back multi-home run games.

    Woodman has always been a great athlete with tools to get teams excited but, this year, he has really put things together. The former quarterback, who was rated one of the ten best in the state of Florida, chose baseball over football. This alone should make him a player to promote. His size and bat speed are finally producing power and he seems a good shot to stay in center field defensively.

    This weekend, facing #8 LSU, Woodman went 6-12, with 5 home runs, a walk, and a hit by pitch.

    Woodman has the tools to slip into the supplemental round. After this weekend, I am sure a lot of teams will be taking a lot more notice.

  17. Mostly likely he will go to cardinals. They always have about 5 picks in the first two rounds.

  18. Here are some other pitcher’s thst could be in the mix. Tanner Houck , Dakota Hudson, Logan Shore Miami Fri night ace . Braden Webb TJ last yr but wow he back he matched Puk pitch for pitch.there’s not alot of college arms this yr .

  19. Just heard on the radio Charlie Manuel is on the road. He’s in Burbank, CA scouting HS players for the draft.

    1. That’s about 10 mins from Rutherford and 30 from Moniak. There , s some pitchers too 1 more hitter from Mesa CC. That’s in the top 100.

  20. How about Will Craig 3 rd base Wake Forest ACC player of the yr as a soph. Tools 60 hit 60 power throws 94 off the bump.we have to lose so weight but maybe can play OF?

    1. Bishop….that article will not sit well with many posters on this site who feel he should be the 1.1 In some ways I think he could be, especially if May is his turn around month as they say it could be. There are also a few position players that are making their push to the finish line.

      1. A lot depends on projections and what the Phillies feel they could get. Do they want to wait four years for a pitcher to develop. do they want a fast track guy, who they feel can be almost as good. Do we see this summer that we lack offense in the system. So many ways they could go.. I only seen video on pint and he throws hard. but a lot of guys do. That’s why a scout job is really hard.

        1. Yes, the development of a HS pitcher is usually a long one in most instances…and that is if they do not have injury hurdles on top of that. One of his many pluses is his relatively ease of motion….as Bob McClure says . “That’s what separates relievers from starters. It’s almost, how easy can you throw hard”

      2. Yea that didn’t sit well with me either as I too am a Groome fan & want them to pick him. My 2nd choice would be Kyle Lewis

    2. That article was written sat night right after the game or early Sunday Morning. I know that because Tom River North game was rained out and didn’t get played until Monday. The Article doesn’t have Tom River North score. My friend my was there and saw the writer interviewed a couple of scouts. I know was a Yankee and a Brave I don’t the rest . I don’t mind the article was Groome going up no. He pitches Tom river north on sat they Joey Rose the best bat in nj he’s going Oklahoma st. Then he could take on the championship team. GROOME will pitch Against Gloucester Catholic a power house with Modine that might be nationally Tele game.its going to be a good month for Groome.

      1. One of my pitchers just 2 hit Gloucester Catholic . . He’s a Rutgers commit RHP 6’2 176 who sits 87-89 . . Good pitcher but not a Groome. They aren’t as good of a team as I expected and Groome should do well against them.

  21. ty bishop. I feel like I wrote this story. Getting average high school kids out. That’s what I was trying to say the other day. nothing against him. There are 50 kids who throw that hard in college who could go to double a now. Jason might be a hall of famer. but all I was pointing out was there are other kids with great stuff at higher level. Now its the scout job to project who they think is better .Hard job.

    1. rocco…..Groome, IMO , has a higher ceiling than Puk.
      Puk, on the other hand, has a higher floor.
      Will the Phillies go the safe route and take Puk….it worked for them with Nola so far, and that may be how they may reason next month.

      1. Totally agree on higher up side. To me this isn’t just puk. who I never saw. I just used him as a example. Pint has to be in the picture. and there are others. But this article just said it better than me. He is getting out not great high school kids. compare that to college guys. and the scouts job gets tough. All projections. just really hard to do/ Romus it a pyramid. You are great in little league. Go to high school and it gets harder, you are facing better kids from different areas. Then college now your facing. Better kids from different states who are the best high school kids. now in college. Get drafted and you go to minors and face the best of the high school kids. from all over the world.

      2. Rumos wow Nola nothing like Puk. When Nola came out he was know for his control and Command . He was Considered the one who could Move the fastest to the pros in the whole draft. He was 11-1 1.47 Era he dominated the SEC , when do you know of Nola throwing a 99 fb plus he’s rt handed. Puk control , command is under 50 according to mlb newest pole. He walks 4/9 for his career his Sec Era 5.25 . Hes more like Newcombe which Matt drafted then traded.

        1. Did not say Nola was the same type pitcher as Puk.
          But inferred, the Phillies mind set may be a ‘college SEC pitcher’ is the safer of the two ways to go based on competitive level..

    2. That’s just not true. If there were all these other pitchers with his type of stuff why aren’t they all flooding the top 10 picks? There’s only a few and one of them is Puk.

  22. There are other players available in this year’s draft besides Groome and Puk, right?

    Can someone confirm this for me?

      1. Apparently the only options for the Phils are: HS pitcher from the Philly burbs or college pitcher with control issues.

        What can go wrong?

    1. Yes. There’s a college pitcher out in northern California who they can probably get for 1.7 money {3.8 million). BTW … I listened to the latest draft podcast from BA. Hudson Belinsky (I think) said one scout rates Quantrill’s changeup as an “80” pitch.

    2. Be careful Rick.

      I was crucified on here a few days ago because I had the gall to suggest that people on here were making a mistake to just assume that Groome is the best player in the draft and that Phillies need to take him.

      I guess people didn’t like the fact that I pointed out they are fixated on Groome because he is local and because of the echo effect of this messageboard. Enough people on here say that hes the best prospect (based on never having seen him pitch by the way) so apparently hes the best prospect and the Philleis are crazy not take him. Even though I pointed out that Keith Law, Jim Callis and Jon Mayo all say that he’s not being taken by the Phillies.

      Anyway, I’ll just leave this here. I can only assume that this is our pal EricD who fancies himself both a low level scout and a Jason Groome expert being told he doesn’t know what hes talking about by Jayson Stark and Keith Law:


      @jaysonst Why does it sound like Philly is going to stay away from Groome?I get the HS thing but besides that there are 0 negatives w him


      Too much uncertainty with HS pitchers in general. If there was a college player they loved, always preferred that


      @jaysonst @EricDeBoskey “zero negatives” has never been true on any HS pitcher I’ve ever scouted

      1. It’s friggin ridiculous. Puk is all hype from last season leading into this one and Groome, as good as he is, is still a highly volatile commodity (prep arm).

        There are several other players in for 1.1, all of whom are being overlooked by the myopic postings on this thread. It’s sorta sad.

        1. One reason all the hype of the Groome/Puk constant debate on this site….is that many of the national writers seem to fuel that with their speculation that the Phillies will look to pitching. The local scribes of the Philadelphia papers/electronic media and NJ, also fuel into it, and also further define it down to LHP. So who is left, Puk or Groome. Almost every week there is a local article or write-up about Jason Groome’s last outing and how he did. I am sure there will be more talk , at some point when the draft gets closer, on the merits of Lyle, Ray or Rutherford for the 1.1

          1. I just cant friggin believe. we have the first pick. And there is no Harper. Kershaw types or Strasberg. DAM. The braves will get first pick next year and get a harper type just watch.

            1. Yeah…that would be hard to stomach. And from what I have seen in the past, Phillies fans are more passionate about their team then Atlanta fans are towards the Braves. And the Braves are positioning themselves well to be dominant again with all their current prospects and huge $$$ pockets come July.

      2. There are negative ‘ s on all prospects , if there was a college player ,not pitcher player. Even know I seen in person and will again the only reason is money . I know how Phillies are with money. I think a Dakota Hudson or a Will craig or Mickey Moniak could be there guy.

      3. And why couldn’t he give me a negative other then his age? I’m not hyping Groome for any other reason then I’ve seen him in person, have spoken to the kid before and have seen him progress from 15 years old to 17 . . You might say “wow 2 years” but you have to realize for a pitcher when you are growing (adding height weight and muscle) it gets harder and harder to repeat your delivery but he has done this with ease and it’s shown in his results. Again someone please give me a negative on Groome other then age. I have yet to get one and Law couldn’t give me one either. I said that “Groomes delivery is effortless, he has good stuff, he’s shown the ability to show control and command with also a good mental make up.” He responded with, “if you think that describes Groome you are completely off base”. I’d love to know what part was off base. Is Groome effortless? I think you’d all agree. Does he have good stuff? If you are in the discussion for top pick I’d say you have very good stuff. Control and command? Look at his numbers in his HS career which will show you he has control. I’ve seen him pitch and he’s commanded his stuff anytime I’ve seen him. And his mental make up? the move back home and the reason why says it all to me. And Law even agreed with the reason why he came home. Again someone give me a negative other then his age.

        Btw is actually take Pint over Puk. And Yikes I didn’t realize his ERA last year was over 5 against the SEC.

    3. Mickey moniak , Dakota Hudson , Will Craig, you will here about more as it gets closer to the draft. Last yr C most didn’t know until late.

  23. This is a fun exercise, nothing sad about it. Most everyone on this site wants nothing more than the Phils to do well and draft the best possible guy. I am not a scout, just a lifetime fan. To hope that a local kid, who everyone says is a good kid, becomes a terrific prospect and we get him, is part of being a fan. Some HS bat that someone else likes is just as much a long shot as Groome, but at this stage of the process, they are meaningless to me. As we get closer and someone emerges and he is a great pick, I’ll be thrilled. But my level of certainty on Groome and Puk is the exact same as Ray and Rutherford and anybody else. That is zero. But, in the meantime I will root for the local kid.

  24. Dakatoa Hudson is the fastest rising pitcher he now is in the top 10 in mlb list .he’s having a much better yr then Puk.

  25. My bias at this point regarding who the Phils draft is based solely on the fact that the team is well stocked in arms and an all around position player is more desirable while we have the economic muscle to sign a top free agent arm or two.

  26. 8 mark maybe the 1.1 becomes a trade chip. The big leagues is half way stocked with pitchers and AAA has the rest. The Phillies will put some money out next yr .

    1. I wouldn’t mind him but not 1st overall unless its at a discounted rate so we can sign more high profile players later in the draft.

      The more I been reading lately the more I have come to want Kyle Lewis & hope he is the pick. I would take a right handed Jason Heyward with more power any day of the week.

    2. You want to use the 1-1 player as a trade chip? Uhhh yeah I’m done listening to anything you post. I rarely ever post but after reading this I couldn’t help it.

      1. Even if it was for Trout,Some high draft have been traded in the last couple years . The names Appel, Newcombe, Swanson ring a bell.

  27. Whattttttttttttttt?!!?!?!?!?!?!?!

    Another list without Groome at the top? What are these people thinking? I know they are professionals that talk to hundreds of scouts and front office types weekly, but there’s no way they know more than the consensus on this board.

    Baseball America top 100 list:

    1 A.J. Puk lhp Florida
    2 Riley Pint rhp St. Thomas Aquinas High, Overland Park, Kan.
    3 Jason Groome lhp Barnegat (N.J.) High
    4 Kyle Lewis of Mercer
    5 Nick Senzel 3b Tennessee
    6 Corey Ray of Louisville
    7 Delvin Perez ss International Baseball Academy, Ceiba, P.R.
    8 Mickey Moniak of La Costa Canyon High, Carlsbad, Calif.
    9 Braxton Garrett lhp Florence (Ala.) High
    10 Blake Rutherford of Chaminade College Prep, Canoga Park, Calif.

    Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/may-5-2016-top-100-draft-prospects/#OSZZZotk2kXHRE4W.99

    1. Put Puk’s eval on here it’s says ” Puk fb goes up to 98 he can control it in and out of the strike zone. PUK OFF SPEED PITCHES ARE BELOW MLB AVG his SLIDER Some times BACK ‘ S UP and his CU needs Work. PUK IS GOING To WORK to Get his BREAKING PITCHES UP TOO MLB LEVEL. Any one that has BA it’s right there read it.

      1. I’d agree with what they say about Puk however have only seen him throw about 5-7 times.

  28. Mickey Moniak definitely best NAME in draft. Media and marketing people would have a $$$ball with that one.

    I’d like to see/hear comparison between Lewis and Ray….anyone?

    1. Last night Manuel in the seats Mickey Moniak hits a triple and a homer.his triple the 12th of the yr breaks the socal record. Moniak grandfather had a career in the major leagues.

      1. I think I read somewhere that Moniak is trying to get bigger.
        Looking at him now I see a Goeddel/Tocci type body type.
        They list both him and Rutherford at 6’2″ and 190 lbs….but their latest videos and their pictures next to each other doesn’t show that.

  29. Here is the order of the selections, which were determined by lottery between the clubs that fell among the ten smallest markets and/or the ten smallest revenue pools league-wide. Other teams that participate in revenue sharing are also eligible, but only for the second round……the Cardinals, Royals, and Mariners failed to receive a pick despite being eligible. With some restrictions, the picks can be traded — and increasingly have been in recent seasons…….perhaps the Phillies could move one of their prospect arms, ie Pivetta or a Lively for one of these picks.

    Round A (selections occur after first round)

    1. Reds (35)
    2. Athletics
    3. Rockies
    4. Diamondbacks
    5. Marlins
    6. Pirates (40)

    Round B (selections occur after second round)

    1. Padres (71)
    2. Indians
    3. Twins
    4.Twins (Kyle Cody unsigned)
    5.. Brewers
    5.. Orioles
    7.. Rays (77)

    1. The Phillies should offer to take Billy Butler off the A’s hands, in exchange for their competitive balance pick. I’d have to think the A’s would jump at the chance to unload 15 million over the next season and a half.

      1. Agree VOR…I hope Klentak does think a little outside the box and do some of those type things The A’s 36th pick would be great. Perhaps take Butler’s contract off their hands and also offer them a tier two pitching prospect…a Richy or a Buchanan… if Billy Beane hesitates..

  30. Ok Question what are Macphail and Matt Klentak draft history? I Know Macphail Know for his trades for minor league’s players ie : Adam Jones , Tillman etc. Klentak stared in LA 2011 they traded Newcombe and really didn’t have great drafting.

    1. Actually Klentak was Asst GM to, at the time, LAA GM Jerry Dipoto…the Mariners GM now. But Jerry D. said Matt Klentak ‘kept him out of trouble’ since he touched most everything in that role from contracts to baseball ops. Before that, at some point, he worked for MacPhail in the Baltimore org I believe. So you have to look at the Angel’s and Orioles draft histories to see some of his(Matt Klentak) work.
      I think he also worked with Joe Jordan in Baltimore.

      1. Ok tys Rumos just seems you never here about there draft history. I know last yr was a big change in drafing. No more loud toolsy players, most of the hitters had good Approach . Kingery, Luke Williams, C’ etc all low k rates. Pitches more control Falter was know for his control they traded for Eshelman too.

        1. Didn’t Klentak is the GM but did he say that he will be pretty much hands off with the draft and let his director of scouting do the picking? I’d assume Klentak will have say (obviously) but I thought I remember him saying he will let his people do the work.

          1. I heard Joe Jordan (on the radio during spring training) say Johnny Almarez and his staff would be in charge of making draft picks. However, it sure sounds like Gillick is very involved as well.

  31. If the Phillies do draft AJ Puk first, wouldn’t it be funny if they took AJ Puckett later in the draft ?

  32. Groome train stops 2 pm tommorrow against Tom’s River north . April for show money for the dough.

      1. He was pulled after 5 ings 7 runs 4 unearned 9 k’s . Barnegat left the the bases loaded 3 times .

    1. IMO, the only HS player the Phillies will take at one would be Groome.
      Rutherford, Pint and Moniak are every bit top ten guys, but doubt the Phillies will make them the 1.1.

      1. Rom what’s your opinion on Pint? Why don’t you think he’s an option? From everything I’ve seen or read I wouldn’t mind him as 1-1. His arm has been taken care of throughout his youth too. His Dad is be smart in terms of baseball and what’s best for his kid. Like the kid a lot.

        1. Eric D and rocco:
          Just think the Phillies like Groome more than Pint if it is HS that they go.
          They were aware and were able to watch some of his work outs thru the off-season in Concordville (Jeff Randazzo’s academy). His dedication to drive the hour plus thru the winter plus an exemplary routine were noted And the Phillies have had more ‘eyes’ on him.

      2. Romus watch video on pint. That all I could go by. He throws hard. but is all over the place. Your drafting velo only with him right now. Read he has no breaking ball. I loved him last year, but don’t think he is a first pick in the draft type. I think with him your looking at 5 yrs or more to develop if he ever does.

  33. Groome is clearly only HS player I would take. Otherwise Puk or Lewis will be the pick.

    1. Groome got hit pretty hard and wasn’t helped by his D. Didn’t look like a 1.1 today. Puk was wild today.

      New strategy…draft someone, lowball them, and take 1.2 next year.

            1. Plus Senzel walked i n the first then stole 2nd and 3rd. Puk line 3.1 3 2 2 6 BB 6 so. Funny wonder what BA are saying now about his control.

  34. It was a wierd game Groome was cruising then came 3 long ings . 3 times Baragnet loaded the bases only not to Score . Then the 2 out errors like missing a pop up . My friend was there he said it rain all the hole wk shore teams reschedule 20 games. There was 1,000 people there gm’s Brewers etc. This might be the thing for Groome his asking price might come down.

  35. How much you wanna bet Senzel and Moniak are now more in play . Moniak was drafted 4th over all by the Rockies in BA last draft . SENZEL how much you wanna bet the Phillies had scouts there.

  36. Nalon James from Holy ghost pa had Gene Schall at his game . The Dodgers are high on him they have 2 picks. I really don’t see Him slipping past the Dodgers but BA mock has him slipping a 6 “4” 220 SS . J B looks good too depends who they take 1 .1.

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