Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #24

Jhailyn Ortiz was selected the Readers’ Poll 23rd prospect.  He received 91 of 346 votes (26%). He finished comfortably ahead of Deivi Grullon.

The Phillies signed Ortiz as an international free agent on July 2, 2015 for $4.2M.  The deal put them over their assigned sigining limit for international signings.  They later traded RHP Chris Oliver, LHP Josh Taylor, and their #9 International Bonus Pool slot money to Arizona for the Diamondbacks #1 International Bonus Pool slot money.   By rule, a team can increase its total bonus pool by only 50%.  The slot money increase from Arizona raises the Phillies total to over $4.5M thereby avoiding penalties for exceeding their bonus pool.

I’ve seen Ortiz at Instructs.  He’s a big kid, but not fat as has been reported and repeated by the uninformed.  His swing is long and creates holes for off-speed pitches away and fastballs up-an-in.  His stride looks inconsistent and gets a little long on some of his harder swings.  His hands and load are fairly quiet and he has a small bat waggle.  But, in the at bats I saw, he was patient.  He saw 4-5 pitches most at bats.  I only saw him play one ball poorly in right field.  It was a bright, sunny day.  But it was overhead.  He just blew the play. However, it was the only poor fielding play I saw.  It came late in Instructs.  Up to that point, I was satisfied that he might be able to play acceptable outfield defense.

Top 30 so far:

  1. Crawford
  2. N. Williams
  3. Thompson
  4. Appel
  5. “C” Randolph
  6. Quinn
  7. Alfaro
  8. Kilome
  9. Knapp
  10. Eflin
  11. Hoskins
  12. Kingery
  13. Pinto
  14. Cozens
  15. Tocci
  16. Goeddel
  17. Medina
  18. Cordero
  19. Eshelman
  20. Canelo
  21. Lively
  22. Pivetta
  23. Ortiz

As we approach the end of the polling process, I have added Logan Moore,  Josh Tobias, Kyle Martin, Cody Forsythe, Luis Encarnacion, Joey Denato, and Nick Fanti to the poll.  That should take care of the bulk of the reasonable requests I have received recently.  By reasonable, I mean those who did not ask for Domonic Brown, Tom Selleck, George Bush, Larry Greene, Cole Hamels, Joe Savery, … Well you get the idea.

Next up is your selection for #24.

 

27 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #24

  1. Grullon here, but Tirado should be in soon. The only pitcher left, that has multiple 60 grade pitches.

    Tirado rightfully gets dinged for being wild, but at age 21, he’s much farther ahead of fellow big armed reliever, Jimmy Cordero was at age 21. Cordero was still in Rookie ball, walking guys, when he was 21. Tirado is probably a better prospect than Cordero, and Tirado has the most upside of any pitcher left.

        1. Well, it’s like this. Arano has said that he prefers relief, that he is more comfortable pitching in relief. Unfortunately for him, the Phillies recognize that he has starter “stuff”. He has a FB that runs in 91-94, T95 and a couple of average secondary pitches. His ceiling is the starter the org thinks he can be, his floor is as a MLB reliever if/when the org decides to give up on the starter plan.

          Arano struggled in his first 10 starts in 2015. He went 0-7 with a 6.00+ ERA. I recall that he suffered the second time through a line up. After being dropped from the rotation and one relief appearance, Arano returned as a starter at the start of the second half. He had his best three-game run with 20 IP, 11 H, 1 ER, 1 HBP, 1 BB, 10 K. He finished the season 4-12, 4.72 w/ 1.9 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9.

          He excelled as a relief pitcher in winter ball in Mexico – 28 Appearances, 31.0 IP, 0.87 ERA, 1.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9.

          He hasn’t missed enough bats at the Advanced A level. He’ll need to improve his command to advance as a starter.

          1. Arano’s metrics need to be looked at a little clser then purely a whiff factor in high A.
            His first 135 inning in the LAD system saw him whiff 133 batters (8.8K/9)…and this was done at 18 and 19 years old. Then there was the Mexican winter at 19…and his whiff factor vs 24-26 year olds was also good. (7.9 per 9)
            Then at age20 he is in A+……one of the youngest starters in the league if not the youngest. His whiff factor declined to the 5 spot….but look at his BB (26 in 124IP) and HR rates….excellent by most standards..
            If he prefers relieving then what can yuo do!
            You can try to stretch him, but if his heart is not in, it probably will reflect in his production or lack of it.
            Perhaps he he needs to be put into a closer’s role.
            KC’s Greg Holland did that. He had a few starts as a BlueRock in Wilmington and then into the pen and has not looked back and did not start another game until a rehab assignment years later..

    1. Well, Arano has some things in common with Pinto. He’s in A-ball and his stuff doesn’t miss A-ball hitter’s bats.

  2. Grullon should go here–can make it to the show with only a mediocre bat. Valentin should make the top 30, too, after Tirado, Sweeney, and Arano.

  3. Went with Valentin here, even though I feel guilty voting for him. Age appropriate and has shown a pretty good command of the strike zone. I tried to talk myself into Grullon here but he seems really far away offensively.

    1. Grullon had a good August offensively. Since he caught more games than any catcher his age the last 2 years that couldn’t have been easy for him physically and maybe it was not a fluke. Hopefully his good August will carryover to this April and beyond. At 20 he will still be young for Lakewood. Williams and Thompson were propelled in the rankings by strong Augusts, but it was more obvious for them as they changed organizations while Grullon stayed in one place.

      1. I can see Grullon starting at CLW next month, and he still will be young to that level.
        They may want to elevate Bossart and maybe Rivero and/ or Posso, if he goes back to catching, to Lakewood to replace Grullon there..

  4. I know we are in the 20’s so projections and weaknesses are significant. I can see many valid choices. Some of my questions: How much better is Grullon than Logan Moore?
    How does Tirado’s projection compare to Aumont?
    Can Sweeney field enough for 2nd or hit enough for LF?
    Is Pujols going to have a breakout season?
    Should a non-closer relief prospect be ranked this high?

    1. I believe that late inning relievers have more value than most people give them credit for. The Royals proved that having a great bullpen can be very valuable. The Astros proved that having a poor back end of the bullpen can be devestating. That’s why I voted for Windle I think he can be a high leverage reliever at the mlb level.

      1. Many are using the Royals’ success as proof of every minor league bull-pen pitcher’s importance. Tom Windle is not anywhere near the talent level of the important pieces in the Royals’ pen. Wade Davis, Luke Hochevar, Greg Holland and Ryan Madson were top 100 starting pitchers in the minors. The equivalent would be if the Phillies had Nola, Appel and Thompson in their bull-pen, five years from now.

        1. Wait, Ryan Madson was a Top 100 prospect? I do not remember that being the case. Helpfully, it turns out someone out there has actually compiled all the Baseball America Top 100 prospects from 1990 to 2010 into a handy spreadsheet.

          https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L1H_USzTBUu5Hloc45vJV3-LTX5vfr-les_DSszC_gs/edit?hl=en#gid=13

          Greg Holland wasn’t a Top 100 prospect either. In fact, he was pretty much a reliever all through the minors:

          http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=hollan001gre

          Davis and Hochevar were big-time prospects, though, so it’s a fair point. I think it’s also fair to point out that for every heralded guy like Davis who finds himself in the bullpen, there are a ton of fairly pedestrian starters who find success in that role too. Madson is actually a good example–he was a fungible 7th inning guy until all of a sudden around 2008 he started throwing much harder. I’m not sure what was behind the change, but it was really pretty sudden.

          That’s not to say that people should vote for Windle, just a gentle challenge to the idea that the Royals’ somehow stacked the deck in an unusual way.

        2. I’m not saying that Windle is gonna be an all-star. I think he can be a good bullpen piece. I’m not saying that every bullpen arm in the minor league is going to turn into a major league arm, but I view him more highly than most people. He killed it in AA as a reliever.

    2. The Grullon/Moore comp is interesting; Grullon is still only 19 (20 in about a week) so he has a lot of time to improve with the bat. Moore has reached AAA solely on the strength of his defense and some feel that he could reach the majors as a backup, despite a career .605 OPS in the minors. It just goes to show that if Grullon’s defense is as advertised, he barely has to do anything offensively.

      Regarding Sweeney, those are the big questions for me. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be a starter in LF. I think he has a better shot of improving his defense enough to start at 2B, but a more likely outcome is that he ends up as a utility guy.

      As for non-closers, no I don’t think so. Maybe if we’re talking about a potential 8th inning guy who is major league ready, or has even pitched in the majors before but still has rookie eligibility. I don’t think Windle fits that bill.

  5. Tirado….MLB has him top 20 for Phil I believe. Also, no mention of Bailey Falter…I obviously have him to high but I saw Cody Forsythe on list so why not.

    1. FWIW, I saw Falter pitch in the GCL last summer. I like Falter, too. But all the additions to the poll have been about reader requests not who I like. Also, FWIW, I tend to value the players I actually watch over those I haven’t seen. Falter’s coming off his first GCL season. If he’s as good as I/we think, we’ll have plenty of time to rank him in the coming seasons.

      1. Falter has a great name for a pitcher, especially if he became the Phillies Ace. Media would love to make headlines for when he pitches

  6. I went with Tirado for the basic reason that he’s got the upside assuming he improves his mechanics/control. There are other players left who have a greater chance of seeing the majors but they don’t have enough ceiling..

  7. Grullon, then I think it’s time to start talking about Pujols/Encarnacion. I don’t think they will or should beat out Sweeney/Arano, but I think they deserve consideration for the back of the Top 30. I would personally have them in the 20-25 range.

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