Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #14

Ricardo Pinto was selected the Readers’ Poll 13th prospect.  He received 183 of 474 votes (39%).

Pinto signed with the Phillies as a free agent three weeks before his 18th birthday on December 28, 2011.  He spent a couple summers at the Phillies’ Venezuelan Academy then jumped to short-season ball at Williamsport in 2014.  He started 2015 in Lakewood, but was promoted to Clearwater mid-season when injuries depleted the Threshers’ starting rotation.  He was inserted into the first-half division race and won an important game against Daytona.  He continued to pitch well the remainder of the season.  He pitched well again, but lost, in the playoff opener.

Pinto has decent control, he doesn’t walk many batters.  He had a respectable K/9 in the seasons following his first DSL season, but saw a substantial regression once he reached Clearwater in 2015.

Top 30 so far:

  1. Crawford
  2. N. Williams
  3. Thompson
  4. Appel
  5. “C” Randolph
  6. Quinn
  7. Alfaro
  8. Kilome
  9. Knapp
  10. Eflin
  11. Hoskins
  12. Kingery
  13. Pinto

I added several new names (Asher, Canelo, Cordero, Garcia, Leibrandt, Richy).  Next up is your selection for #14.

84 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #14

  1. Hadn’t realized Asher was eligible. But checked the stats, and he’s under the 50IP threshold.

    Obviously, he didn’t look too good with the Big League team last season, but he’s also still just entering his 24 year-old season.

    And while his numbers in the minors aren’t overwhelming, he was pitching in two extreme hitters leagues–Pacific Coast and Texas, respectively.

    I reckon he’ll be the first started recalled from AAA, ahead of Thompson, Morgan and Appel, to see how he fares.

    I see Medina getting a lot of early votes. Certainly like his potential.

  2. And I have no idea why Tocci is receiving more votes than Sweeney or Goeddel, two guys who’ll contribute in MLB. Tocci is such a long shot to even reach the Majors, and, even if does, his upside will be constrained.

    1. Tocci is only 20 years old and plays great defense. He is never gonna be a big power guy or a big base stealer but if he continues to improve his plate discipline, contact ability and strength you are looking at a major league regular with the upside of occasional all star. I feel like that is more than any of our other prospects can offer. I feel like this is a make or break year for Tocci. If he plays well enough he goes on the 40 man roster if he doesn’t he gets left unprotected and probably selected in the rule 5 draft as a teams 4th out fielder. I don’t see Sweeney as an everyday regular and as far as Goeddel goes I see him as a fourth out fielder. I know you value floor more than most people but I think Tocci has more floor than most people give him credit for.

      1. what’s a best case scenario for Tocci? .275, 5 HR, 10 SB, with a Gold Glove?

        I’ve read the Gary Maddux and Alex Rios comps, and if ever reaches their level–.285 / 15 HR / 20 SB –sure, you can make a case for him as a potential future all-star. But he’s seems a clear cut below them, with still a long road ahead, and he he’s yet to fill-out his frame.

        1. I think Tocci’s best case scenario is a .340ish obp guy with 10-15 hr’s and 20-25 steals a year. While I do think that prediction is overly optimistic I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility. If he continues to get stronger which I think he will the power will come. He is only 20 years old and seems to be written off by a lot of people I don’t get it.

            1. Literally every part of that projection is so far fetched that it is silly.

              To put that type of season in perspective, that is basically the season that Mookie Betts just had. There were 6 CF in all of baseball that put up that type of hit-power-speed offense. If you add in plus defense, you have an one of the top CF in the game.

              I mean honestly, I know we are all fans, but let’s pretend to be a little objective.

            2. While I do believe that my prediction is over the top I don’t think that it is impossible. I’m not saying that Tocci would do this every year but I think he can be an occasional all star. Again I don’t think that it is guaranteed he becomes an occasional all star but it is a possible outcome in my opinion.

        2. What’s the best case with Sweeney, Average bench player. Just don’t get the push for replacement level players, even if they are likely to make it to the majors.

          1. We voted Justin Defratus into the top 10 for years, knowing he was at best a 7th inning reliever. That’s not much above replacement level ceiling.

            1. Can’t say that I remember voting for DeFratus in the top 10 either but at least back then, the Phillies barely had 10 top prospects.

            2. https://phuturephillies.com/top-30-prospects/reader-top-30/2012-reader-top-30/

              We collectively once voted de Fractus higher than Franco. And luminaries Jiwan James and Tyson Gillies ahead of Roman Quinn. Plus Pointer and Walding before Tocci and Altherr!

              Rupp was our 23rd ranked prospect that year–must have been a deep talent pool =)

              2012 Reader Poll

              01. Trevor May, RHP
              02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
              03. Sebastian Valle, C
              04. Brody Colvin, RHP
              05. Freddy Galvis, SS
              06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
              07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
              08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
              09. Maikel Franco, 3B
              10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
              11. Tyler Greene, SS
              12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
              13. Jiwan James, OF
              14. Tyson Gillies, OF
              15. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP
              16. Roman Quinn, SS/OF
              17. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
              18. Austin Wright, LHP
              19. Brian Pointer, OF
              20. Mitchell Walding, SS
              21. Carlos Tocci, OF
              22. Aaron Altherr, OF
              23. Cameron Rupp, C

          2. Sweeney has surprising physical tools – runs fast, can drive the ball surprisingly far – and has good plate discipline. His best case scenario is to somehow stick at second (not impossible; Daniel Murphy did it after he switched to the outfield), work on the hit tool and develop the plate discipline and evolve into a player like Tony Phillips (go back and look at Phillips’ stats and career trajectory, including his performance in the minors – similar to Sweeney’s performance thus far). That’s his best case scenario; his most likely outcome, however, is probably a utility player or a second division regular.

            1. J64…Sweeney does have physical tools….run, throw, glove, surprising power…but when it comes to plate discipline, a red-flag for me is , he is a college guy that at 24 years old in the PCL-AAA with over 500PAs, he had 22% Krate and a 8% BB rate. This is his 25age season approaching, and IMO, I would not call him a plate discipline guy at this point.

            2. I watch Sweeney and he didn’t impress me at all. Looks like a ultitily guy at best. But it was a small sample. Romus if your in south philly today I need help shoveling my car out

            3. Agreed that the age is a concern; a real concern. But you cited one data point while ignoring others. He had a 13 % walk rate in AA the year before and about a 13% walk rate in the majors, which is nothing to sneeze at. He’s got some upside when it comes to plate discipline.

        3. We’re at #14 and you’re argument against Tocci is that he isn’t a future All-star? If you are assigning a ceiling “of .275 and Gold Glove” to Tocci, that isn’t a negative. Centerfielders who get anywhere near that kind of production are worth more than every #5 Starter or Reliever in the league.

          1. I think the odds of him reaching that ceiling are incredibly low.

            Expected value is how I rank prospects.

            Otherwise, if this was a pure tools ranking, I’d have voted Medina by now.

      2. ‘but if he continues to improve his plate discipline, contact ability and strength you are looking at a major league regular with the upside of occasional all star. ‘…bit of a stretch I would think, as an occasional all-star….I can not envision any scenario where he beats out Herrera or Quinn in the Phillies CF job….perhaps with another team at some point down the line. He may not even be protected again this November and he should have some AA time later this season..

        1. I like Quinn a lot but he is a major question mark himself that hasn’t reached the majors. Herrera is a player that has only done it for one year. If both of these guys bottom out and Tocci hits his peak you really can’t see Tocci starting over either of them? I’m not trying to be negative but you can’t count your chickens before they hatch. I don’t think that occasional all star is a likely outcome but I do think it is his upper echelon ceiling.

          1. Chad……..yes Tocci jumps right in there, if they both falter and bottom out, but the odds of both of them flaming out is pretty slim I would think. Herrera for one, has hit in every league he has played and I do not see that changing. He is a natural born hitter. And he already is a plus defender in CF.
            Quinn, however, cannot seem to stay healthy so he may be the one that could slip
            Will be interesting later this year in November…Quinn and Tocci (2nd time) both have to be protected, along with Cozens and Williams …all minor leaguers, four slots out of the normal 7/8 most clubs apportion to the 40.

            1. Herrera had a very high babip this year that a lot of people think will regress. So while he has hit at every level his offense this year was a good bit higher than expected. He did play great defense this year however he had problems with his routes and reading the ball off the bat that he made up for with his athleticism. This is not a guarantee fix with time thing however it should be. I like Herrera however I do not see him as a potential all star I see him as a good center fielder who hits about average. I think Tocci can be better than him although I don’t think it is likely I still think it is possible.

            2. Chad – have you ever seen Tocci and Odubel both hit a ball?

              I mean it is night and day different. The bat speed that Herrera has is far beyond Tocci’s. It’s not even close. And yes, I saw Tocci play several times last year when he was tearing up Lakewood.

            3. V1– I have never seen Tocci play before so I can not attest to his bat speed. I’m not a scout and I’m not gonna pretend to be. I am just some guy who enjoys talking about prospects. I’m probably wrong on my assessment of Tocci but I do believe he can be an occasional all star think. I don’t think it is likely he becomes an all star but I think it is possible. In my opinion he has about 2-4 percent chance of becoming an all star.

    2. Sweeney doesn’t project as more than a utility player. Goeddel is likely in the majors as a Rule 5, but doesn’t seem to be a high-level prospect. I think he also projects as a bench guy. Tocci has less chance of achieving his ceiling, but his ceiling is an MLB starting CF. Bench guys are fairly fungible. Longer odds to be a starter outranks that in my view.

      I voted Canelo. He showed as good a bat as Tocci and is as good defensively, but at an even more premium position.

      1. Tend to agree to some extent, they have similar ’55’, maybe FV60, grade defensive tools…Sweeney, Goeddel and Tocci. If one can correct, adjust and break out of their specific plate deficiencies they have a chance at being a MLB regular.

        1. Rooms, Good points.

          I haven’t seen Goeddel but was tempted to rank him next from what I’ve read. I have seen Sweeney and Tocci. Sweeney also strikes me as a utility guy or second division regular. Tocci glides in the outfield like a great center fielder. The question is his offense. He showed signs last year. If he breaks out, he can be a regular CF, though I also agree that he might not get ahead of Herrera and/or Quinn. Still, his potential is enough that I went with Tocci.

          I also agree that this could be his make or break season in the Phillies organization.

    3. Cause proximatey has nothing to do with how good a prospect is. I actually voted for Goeddel. Who do you think will be a better not when.

    4. I agree with the opinion that Goeddell needs to be ranked ahead of Tocci. They both project similar skill sets but Goeddell’s proximity makes him the better prospect at the moment.

      1. The big difference between them for me is that Tocci projects as an above average defender in CF while Goeddel is probably limited to a corner.

        1. I’ll make the same argument against ranking Goeddell that I made against ranking Hererra last year. If he sticks with the team, he’s no longer a prospect, and if he doesn’t stick with the team, he’s a Tampa Bay Ray. He’s never played a single game for a Phillies minor league affiliate, and chances are he won’t ever. I understand there’s an argument to be made for including him in the conversation, I just feel like it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.

            1. I don’t think he was trying to say Herrera wouldn’t work out more that either Herrera is a mlb player for the Phillies or he is a prospect for the Rangers.

            2. I think you misunderstood my argument. The fact that Herrera performed well as a major league player is exactly the point–he was acquired for the major league roster, not the farm system. I understand the counterargument is that we’re ranking the best young players, however I just tend not to think of Rule 5 guys as really being Phillies property until they stick a whole season–in which case they are no longer prospects.

          1. I agree. However, we had the same discussion last year and readers want to include the Rule 5 guys. I contacted BA last season and while they agreed that Herrera doesn’t meet the definition of a prospect, they were going to include him. MLB includes Goeddel at #20 this year.

  3. I went with Lively over Pivetta. They were neck and neck and I kept switching the order but landed on Lively. I know Ben didn’t have a great year but I saw him twice. He seemed to battle harder than most pitchers I see. He was mostly pitching to contact and the defense behind him were leaving a lot of gaps. I loved in one game that he got tossed by the home plate umpire. I know that sound weird but he was running out of gas and the umpire was shrinking the strike zone. The zone was so small for him and the New Britain pitcher could throw the ball 6 inches outside and get a strike call. Knapp might not have helped behind the plate because he wasn’t framing pitches well that game. But Lively kept battling until he finally boiled over. He wasn’t crying about it all game but a few choice words, late in the game, and he was gone. I loved that about him.

    I think he has a lot more in the tank and if the Phils unleash him, he’ll be successful.

      1. Yes, I saw him on several occasions – most on Milb.tv. He pitched in a number of games where he was dominating, but ran out of gas in the 6th or 7th inning and the manager just kept him in there, but he pitched a lot better than the numbers would indicate. He also pitches up in the zone, which is a dangerous thing in the EL when you don’t throw harder than 95. I expect him to do very well in AAA and he’ll be among the many starting pitchers knocking on the door by the end of this year or mid next year. Lively has solid back-end potential – and I don’t mean as a “hanger on” more like a really nice 4 who can keep you in games through 6 innings and will deliver an occasional gem. I like him a lot more than a guy like Asher for example.

  4. I have Pivetta here. He has great upside with a fast ball reaching 96mph and a power curve. His issues are developing his change up and command. If they do not come around he will be in the majors as a reliever.

  5. Tocci here over Medina and Canelo. It says something that as low as I was on Tocci last year (I had him 17) that he managed to gain ground in a better system. He did have a really strong first half prior to promotion. A strong first half in 2016 would be a good sign that he’s on track for the bigs. Now someone buy him a pizza. Yes, meat lovers. Extra cheese? Also yes.

    1. Yeah I voted for Tocci. He’s a very polarizing prospect, always has been, but I think the idea that he might rank lower than Cozens or Sweeney is highly questionable.

  6. I think we’re undervaluing Adonis Medina here. With so many SP prospects, we talk about “if he can develop” the third pitch (Eflin and Pivetta being two examples). Medina, by the accounts I’ve read, has a FB that sits low-to-mid 90s and a curve and change that can be plus pitches. He is 18 months younger than Franklyn Kilome and has outperformed him in short-season ball in each of the past two years.

    Cozens, Tocci and Goeddel are good prospects, sure, but I don’t think any of them have the ceiling based on present tools that Medina possesses.

    1. If this list was solely based upon tools and potential upside, I’d have Medina grouped with Kilome in the Top 10. I’m very excited about him. With a good season, I’d expect he’ll be in our Top 10 next year.

      1. I say “can be” because he doesn’t have enough track record to prove he can throw them consistently. But some (including Matt Winks at PMT) already suggest the secondary offerings are plus:

        18. Adonis Medina (RHP)

        The Phillies’ Latin American scouts are getting really good at handing raw athletic pitchers to the dev staff in Florida where magical things happen (also not spending very much to acquire them, Medina checking in at $70,000). Medina is the next in that line to come through the GCL. He is an athletic 6’1″ righty who jumped from 87-90 to sitting 90-94 and getting all the way up to 97 at times. He can throw strikes and will flash two plus offspeed pitches in a curveball and changeup. There is a lot of upside here and there are some that think Medina’s ceiling is more in the #2 starter range long term.

        http://philliesminorthoughts.com/randolph-medina-and-arauz-in-the-ba-gcl-top-20/

    2. If i read this before i voted for Goeddel I wouldve switched. Im not as high on Kilime as most because of results to date.

  7. I went Tocci here. I think it was v1 who convinced me when he compared him to Inciarte. Does anyone remember why we sent him back after he was a Rule V pick?

    1. Sadly, I remember, and I think it was because they determined that Ezequiel Carrera just HAD to be on that opening day roster.

        1. Yep…another Charlie telling Ruben in ’11 …don’t give me no minor leaguers, give me a vet with major league experience.

      1. Inciarte was on the Phillies’ announced opening day roster on March 30th. Delmon Young was starting the season on the DL, and Inciarte was probably on borrowed time waiting for Young to get healthy. The Phillies claimed Carrera off waivers from Cleveland on April 1st and tried to DFA Inciarte on April 2nd. Arizona exercised their right to Inciarte on April 4th. I remember reading that the Phillies tried to work out a deal for Inciarte, but that the teams couldn’t reach an agreement. Carrera was DFA-ed on April 30th when Young was activated. The Indians claimed Carrera on May 2nd. He was on the Tigers ALDS roster in 2014 and the Jays ALCS roster in 2015.

    2. He was terrible and we were trying to contend at the point (although it was a half hearted effort) he wasn’t ready for the bigs at that point in his career. I wonder who we replaced him with on the roster. Does anyone know?

      1. Inciarte was terrible? He was the third best OF in camp in 2013, behind D. Brown and Ben Revere; and ahead of the rest, including John Mayberry and Laynce Nix both of whom made the roster.with Inciarte.

        1. Terrible was an overstatement but he wasn’t exactly good and they weren’t playing him a lot. I think they wanted him to try and pass him through waivers but Arizona wasn’t having it. But who knows what Philly was thinking.

          1. At the time the reports were that they tried repeatedly to trade for him rather than offer him back. He also hit .281/.327/.362 in AA that year, so he likely would have been quite bad in the majors over a full year.

            1. Thanks for the clarification Matt. I remembered hearing something about him but I couldn’t remember what exactly the rumblings were.

          2. But, he did play well. I saw more than a few games at Bright House. He looked good in the outfield and hit .273 against MLB, AAAA, and AAA pitchers during games. He only got 3 starts but he played in 27 games, 5th most among all guys in camp. Now, he only had about 35 PA, but everyone has a SSS during spring training.

      1. Martinez wasn’t called up until the end of May. He yoyo-ed back and forth between the Phillies and LHV the rest of the season. It’s likely that Frandsen and Galvis contributed to Martinez’ starting the season in LHV.

  8. Everyone realizes that Tocci played as a 19 year old up to late August this year with a wRC+ 133 in full time A ball (concedes some BABIP inflation) while playing what many report to be above average CF. I still believe if he were drafted in 2015 and did this, he would be a top 10 easy in fan voting.

    1. Exactly. Tocci was 19 last year. Younger than JP Crawford. If Tocci was drafted in 2014, like other 19 year old minor leaguers, and performed like he did in Lakewood, he would have been voted top 6. For proof, take note of whatever Cornelius Randolph’s line is at Lakewood this upcoming year and compare to Tocci’s at Lakewood from last year.

      1. Does the proof consider that Tocci started his third season at Lakewood with over 1100 professional plate appearances? If Randolph starts 2016 at Lakewood, he’ll have just over 200 professional plate appearances. With the differences in age and background, we hardly ever get to compare apples to apples.

  9. I’ll admit that I let need and what I have seen so far of Cozens, Goeddel and Tocci bias my judgement. As stated a few times before I’m just a fan who loves to watch, I’m not as stat savy as many on this site so maybe I am overlooking some metrics.

    Cozens has the most upside for power of the three from what I’ve seen and he looked awesome at Reading last year (did not see him play in Clearwater). I also saw him up close during spring training in the batting cages and on the field and he is big and strong with some quickness for a big man. Have not seen Goeddel so maybe I will feel differently after the spring. Tocci still seems a ways away but maybe he will get stronger. With Quinn, Herrera, Nick Williams, etc it seems that we have a lot of guys who can play multiple outfield spots with speed and good hitting, but not much power.

    1. Rem,

      Fellow fan here, not an expert.

      I haven’t seen Cozens play in person, so I’m a little behind the curve in comparing him to others. He certainly hit well in AA last year. If that was a break out and can maintain some degree of speed as the Big Guy matures, he no doubt will land higher on my prospect list. Right now he’s a notch below the Goeddel and Tocci for me, but that might be my own ignorance in not having seen him play.

      1. I hear ya Frank. Like I said I did not see him play in Clearwater and I think I remember Jim (who did watch him a lot) say he was hot the month before he got called up so hopefully he can keep it going.

        I get it, at this point your guess is as good as mine on which of the three should be ranked higher than the other. I just like what I saw. I’m hoping all three will make to the MLB level, that would be a good situation and give the Phils plenty of options!

        Can’t wait for Spring Training!!! It gives me hope as I’m shoveling out from the 32″ of snow we just got.

        1. It’s not that he got hot for a month. He did it over an extended period. Cozens was hitting .218 on May 20th and steadily raised his average over the next 14 weeks to .282 on August 25th before being promoted to Reading.

    1. Top 10 2nd basemen is just like Top 10 1st basemen. It’s really the top 3 or 4 are highly regarded, and the other guys are just there.

      1. I don’t know how you can say that.

        Kingery was projected to be a 1st round pick last year. He has a plus hit and speed tool and 50 defense. That is not the profile of a guy who is “just there.”

        1. I agree with that. A lot of fans seem to be down on him bc he only put up a .250 BA. What people fail to see is that his obp was .316 and he stole 11 bases and was only thrown out 1 time. If he can raise his BA by 30 points (which doesn’t seem ridiculous considering what he did in college) he becomes a decent top of order hitter who can steal some bases. He should be a high babip guy because of his plus speed. I’m excited about him and honestly I think you could argue that he could be as high as the number 6 second base prospect. I know that might make me seem like a homer but I liked him coming out of college. I think he can really rocket up prospect boards.

          1. Chad….agree with your assessment on Kingery. He did have a fairly high BABIP in the PAC12 conference in college, just not sure how sustainable that will be as he progresses, but his speed does serve him well as you say when it comes to that aspect of his game. And what surprises me about the Callis/Mayo list is that Ian Happ is higher and his value defensively at second is minimal, though I always liked him at Cinncy, he just does not measure up to Kingery when it comes to defense at second base.

  10. The first couple 1 cost 64 mil 1 has no power and no he’s blocked . There making Ian Happ a 2nd baseman he couldn’t do it in college .3 or 4 of those will start the season in the major leagues. There’s no Sweeney or Arroyo form the Giants. The First baseman the 5 were there last yr number 8 was the Marlins top pick last yr 12th overall.

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