Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #11

Zach Eflin received 177 of 392 votes (45%) and was selected as the #10 prospect in the Phillies’ organization.   Rhys Hoskins finished a distant second with 55 votes.

Eflin was drafted out of high school in 2012 by the San Diego Padres in the first round, the 33rd overall pick.  The 6’4, 200 pound right-hander pitched 3 years in the Padres organization.  He threw only 7 innings the summer he was drafted.

Eflin spent 2013 at full-season A ball in Fort Wayne where he logged 118.2 IP.  He logged another 128 IP in 2014 at Advanced A in Lake Elsinore.  His ERA was 2.73 and 3.80 respectively.  His K/9 each year was 6.5, and his BB/9 was around 2.3 each year.

Eflin was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in December 2014 as part of the package for Matt Kemp.  The Dodgers flipped Eflin to the Phillies on December 19th along with Tom Windle for Jimmy Rollins.

Eflin spent 2015 in Reading where he racked up 131.2 IP and a 3.69 ERA.  His BB/9 dropped to 1.6 but his K/9 also dropped to 4.6.


So far the Top 30 looks like this:

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Nick Williams
  3. Jake Thompson
  4. Mark Appel
  5. “C” Randolph
  6. Roman Quinn
  7. Jorge Alfaro
  8. Franklyn Kilome
  9. Andrew Knapp
  10. Zach Eflin

I have a recent request to add Brandon Leibrandt, and have already received requests to add Severino Gonzalez, Luis Encarnacion, Josh Tobias, and Yacksel Rios.  Maybe a couple of thes guys make it to the poll next week.

Some odd voting observations –

  • Eflin is the first prospect in the top ten to not receive a vote in all polls in which he was eligible to receive votes.  Tom Windle remains as the only prospect to receive votes in each poll.
  • Write-ins increased in this poll.  Joe Savery is NOT in the organization.
  • I repeat, Jerad Eickhoff is Eickhoff is NOT ELIGIBLE fot this poll.
  • Carlos Tocci’s stock got a boost as he moved up to fourth this poll after collecting 6 votes in the first 8 polls.

The e-mail addresses for prospect lists and the addition of a prospect to the poll are – using the Subject – My Prospect List using the Subject – Add Prospect

Next up is your selection for the #11 prospect in the organization.

98 thoughts on “Phuture Phillies 2016 Reader Top 30 #11

  1. Windle time! There’s a reason he’s received votes in every poll thus far. Not sure what that reason could be, but, hey, there must be one…

    Plus, he’s a Golden Gopher; and that happens to be my alma mater =) Famous Gopher baseball players:

    Dave Winfield
    Paul Molitor
    Terry Steinbach
    Dan Wilson
    Robb Quinlan
    Greg Olson
    Glen Perkins
    Denny Neagle
    Kerry Ligtenberg
    Steve Comer (1983 Phillies contributor)

    You’d think Winfield’s name would be all over the sports complex there, but its only noticeable by its absence. Never really learned the story why–he never seemed like a bad guy. Maybe once he graduated, he just took-off and never returned…or donated money.

    Reminds me of when I was umpiring in El Segundo, CA, when they christened the diamond “George Brett Field.” Mr. Royal was there, but, boy, he didn’t want to be. He spent the minimum time, signed the minimum number of autographs, shook the minimum number of hands, and just left. He may have been born in El Segundo, but Kansas City is his town.

    1. Reliever with non-closer upside, meh. I don’t get the Windle love. It’s not even like he’s major league ready and you can say his floor is super-high. Even among our reliever prospects, how is he above Cordero or Tirado?

      1. One justification could be that Tocci and Goeddel have a similar profile, but Tocci performed waaaay better in low A ball at age 19, then Goeddel at age 19 or when he repeated the level at age 20.

          1. Whether it was his 3rd season or not, Tocci hit better in Low A at age 19, than Goeddel did at age 19 or 20.

      2. I think Tocci has more upside than Goeddel. here is my reasoning.
        1. Tocci is younger
        2. Tocci plays the more premium position
        3. Tocci still has room to grow into more strength. Which I think he will.
        4. Tocci plays better defense
        5. If Tocci does get stronger I think he is at least a major league regular.
        I know you don’t like Tocci and you are entitled to your own opinion. And quite honestly before this year I probably would have agreed with you but I’ve grown to like him more and more. I dont think anyone else in the system that hasn’t been voted for yet has the potential upside of Tocci. Take BA for what it is but he was top 10 for them.

        1. I am actually growing to like Tocci more. I finally found a comp that makes sense to me and is interesting…Ender Inciarte.

          That being said, I like Goeddel more. He has a present hit tool that Tocci only hopes to attain one day. He also currently has power that Tocci dreams to attain. The defense isn’t that different, albeit at a corner OF rather than CF.

  2. I guess this is where the strategic vote starts. Voting for the highest guy on my list who has a chance. That will be Kingery.

    1. Adonis Medina, Darnell Sweeney, Tyler Goeddel, Scott Kingery, Carlos Tocci, Dylan Cozens, Nick Pivetta, Jailyn Ortiz, Deivi Grullon and Malquin Canelo above both Pinto and Hoskins. I have a feeling I’m not going to be a little disappointed here…

    2. I know im repeating myself but Kingery better step it up in his first full season because last year his numbers were completely pedestrian. Ill give him that first season is an adjustment one , but its time to step it up.

      1. I give more credit to Kingery’s prospect status based on the organization pushing him to the higher level. They didn’t that for Asche or Hoskins, so they must believe he has more ability.

        1. IMO, they probably push Kingery more likely because they don’t see Cesar Hernandez as a regular 2B. Since Howard will be out after 2016, Phils will move fast with Hoskins (unless Ruf/Stassi suddenly rakes or if they move Franco to 1B which i doubt).

          Kingery is a prospect and can be a late 1st rd talent in the draft. But the pushing i think is based rather than the “special” ability that none of us can see.

          1. What? They placed Kingery in Lakewood because Cesar Hernandez is the 2B on the big club. Sorry, but that is ridiculous.

            Teams’ don’t place prospects in the low minors based on what’s on the Major League roster. They place the player (especially high draft picks) based on what they can handle and where they can be best developed.

            1. @anonymous – i’m not sure if you fully understand my point. i’m talking about the “phasing” of Kingery’s assignment and not questioning his “placing” in the LWD roster.

              First, the Phils draft a couple of college 2B prospects in Kingery and Tobias. Since both are already experienced so skipping GCL is ok, and since Kingery is the better and more regarded 2B prospect, putting him in LWD is just right. I have no question with that.

              Now, the thought of having Kingery starting A+ then go AA in the same year which like what you said, they did not do to Asche and Hoskins. So if that happens, Kingery phasing is faster than normal. Normally, you go up the ladder quick if you keep dominating like JPC and probably Corny.

              Kingery’s stat in LWD is not impressive (that’s why some of us are not high with Kingery) which will force the Phils to move him to CLW outright. But since nobody is blocking Kingery (thus, the Cesar Hernandez reference), the Phils can opt to accelerate him (now, this where i’m talking about the phasing of his development) and see if he can join the Phils in 2B (and to be part of the next young core of Franco-JPC-Williams-Knapp-Nola-Thompson).

              Likewise, teams normally put the prospects in “level where they think they can handle and where they can be best developed” — just like your argument. To me, this is already a fact otherwise, teams don’t know what there are doing.

            2. I understand exactly what you said, and again Cesar Hernandez blocking/or not blocking 2B has nothing to do with where any team places a player in the low minors.

  3. Adonis Medina. 19 years old, sits low-to-mid-90s and touches high 90s with the fastball in addition to two other pitches that can be plus (curve and change). Medina has actually had better results in two years of short-season ball than Kilome, whose ranking has as much to do as stuff and ceiling as Medina’s should. I like others here as well (Hoskins, Tocci, Pinto), but Medina’s got a chance to be a very good starter if everything comes together.

  4. Pinto here. Combination of results and positive scouting that make me think he’s not far from being in contention to be a contributor on the big league level.

    The depth of his system is pretty remarkable right now. That an A+ guy this good is the fifth starter we’re picking, and all but one of those are more advanced in the system…I’m a fan. Let’s never go back to voting for “setup man with a chance to close” and “second baseman with doubles power” in our top ten.

    1. Voting for Minor league set-up men in the top of the vote is silly, but I look at Pinto as having a ceiling of a Major League set-up man.

    2. Tell me…has Pinto grown three inches taller since September?
      I like the guy….but he is not the next Pedro, who was in BA top 100 before 21-years old.I see Pinto as a minor league starter with the chance to close..

      1. Assuming he ain’t Pedro is easy. I’ll choose not to assume he can’t do what some scouts seem to think he can, even despite his frame.

        A year out of complex ball he threw 145 solid innings last year at both A levels. Is he riskier body-wise than a bigger man? Sure. But a guy that throws 100 is a bigger risk to blow out an elbow or shoulder, and we value his assets as well.

        Also let’s not forget what Kiley reported about Pinto after 2014 –

        Colorful language there.

        1. I see Pinto’s name placed high on many Phillies’ prospect lists, but I just don’t get it. A 6’0 tall, RH, A ball pitcher, who doesn’t strike anybody out, and has 50’s across his card? Guys think that’s the profile of a ML Starter and top 10 prospect in a good system?

        2. Fair enough.
          Unfortunate as it may be, the odds are stacked against him and one aspect of that is due to his height limitation.

        3. @Bradley….Kiley, I noticed also, had Mecias, Arano and Imhof at 45FV and Pinto at the 40FV spectrum in that article. But, to be frank, I think Pinto’s ’15 metrics is what most of his ardent supporters are excited about.

          1. True. His 2015 was a leap forward, in part because he moved up in the system and threw ~145 innings. That’s a start toward alleviating some concerns over his frame not holding up.

        4. I agree that odds are against Pinto – a RHP pitcher on the smaller side that doesn’t blow anybody away. Pinto’s profile can easily classified as a RP which i think increases his floor. But for now, Pinto is a SP. As long as he can perform like a SP, his value is high.

          My knack on me is that i’m bullish on minor league stats and Pinto actually has a decent minor league stats. But if you look at the stuff – 2 plus pitches with good control (not walking a lot of batters) and can command his best pitches to attack the batters in the strike zone — i think there’s a lot of value to this prospect (Pinto). While there were no physical project left, the mechanics is not bad.

          So far Pinto is proving to me that he is a good prospect who is closer than most (except for the SP in Top 10) in contributing. And as I said in the other posts, i think Eflin and Pinto has similar “stuff” but Eflin’s physical attributes give him the slight edge over Pinto.

          If Eflin is Top 10, then Pinto should not be that far of. I have Pinto #11 in my list. If Pinto continues to perform in REA and LHV while developing a breaking ball — people should start looking at the results than the physical limitations.

            1. @anonymous – grading is subjective and not sure where you got the 50-55 grade. but a 91-94 FB topping at 96 that you can command in the zone, that’s making of a plus FB. As far as other pitch – the CH, it has good fade and deception and he can also commands it in the strike zone, looks to me as above average CH.

              i’m not giving any grade because i’m not an expert, but based on the arguments i said above – both looks like plus pitches.

              Pinto will bbe pitching in REA this year. So we will have a lot of chance to see him pitch and see for ourselves and not just rely on certain subjective grades.

            2. I got his grades from Fangraph’s Scouting report. Their prospect scout was just hired by the Atlanta Braves, so he has some credibility. Also, the grades on his pitches are only part of the story. His stats in A ball are nothing, for a potential Starting Pitching prospects. Also his physical profile doesn’t allow for more projection on his current stuff.

            3. The evaluation on fangraphs was also from Jan 2015, so based on the 2014 season. By most accounts his pitches progressed last year.

        5. That’s a perfect article on several fronts on Pinto , Seve, and Cozens. Please read 9,14,16, then scroll to the end and hit instructions Phillies top prospects scroll down to Cozens. There’s alot of info there on Cozens .

  5. I don’t see how it’s not Hoskins here? Guy is our first baseman of the future, is age appropriate and put up stellar numbers and is competent fielding. Just because he plays first base doesn’t mean a guy like tocci or pinto, who have small chances at being legitimate major leaguers, should be ranked higher. Tocci needs to put up. He’s a 1-2 tool player at most.

      1. I’d argue tocci only has one major league tool: fielding. He’s 17 for 28 in SB in A ball, so that is not a plus tool. Contact isn’t a plus tool when it is weak contact. No power. Tocci is peter bourjos except Bourjos does what he does in the majors, not A ball. And the only response people have to that is “he’s young”. The guy will be in the system five years this year, he may not be a part of the organization next year.

        1. His arm plays in CF, his speed is a work in progress but it is a tool, and his “weak” contact is getting more solid as he grows. He won’t be Andruw Jones, but he’s made progress in putting on weight and the fair bit of power he has room for is starting to come around.

          1. One of my goals this spring will be to get a current photo of Tocci, with some kind of perspective. The shot I see a lot of is one where he is standing next to Willians Astudillo. Asty would make anyone look taller and thinner.

        2. SB% and speed are two entirely separate things. He can have speed and still not understand how to take a lead, get a jump, etc. Also, how many of those CS are being picked off?

          As for him being in the system for years, that doesn’t make him any older so yes, he is still young..

          1. Tocci’s stats say he was 3 for 12 in Clearwater. I could only find 8 of his CS in game recaps. He was only picked off once in those 8 CS. I watched all of his home attempts. He is not really quick, yet. Only one of his CS were by a top prospect – Bradenton’s Reese McGuire (Pittsburgh).

        3. I will wager all the money I have that Tocci is in our system next year (unless traded or he has some kind of career ending injury) the only way he leaves is via the rule 5 draft and they only way that happens is if he proves closer to being mlb ready and in that scenario Philly protects him from the rule 5 draft. Philly has a lot of players that will be rule 5 eligible this coming offseason but they also have a lot of AAAA players on their mlb roster I bet a lot of them are released.

    1. One reason to value Hoskins lower than, say, Cozens, is his age. 22 years old at A+ vs. 21 at A+/AA. Or Tocci, 19 at A+. Appropriate age, yes. But younger is better.

      1. erich,

        The age difference is just one year, meanwhile it’s taken Hoskins basically half as long to advance to A+. This year he’ll be AA. No knock on Cozens but I think age isn’t the right comparison between he and Hoskins.

    2. Prospects #11 to 15 almost have similar value and Hoskins might be in that range, if not, a decent #16 or #17 (i have Hoskins ranked #14 in my list).

      Hoskins position as 1B (least defensive value other than DH) and RH (wrong side of the platoon) plus a high rate of failure in 1B prospects limits his value.

      Hoskins value as a prospect mainly depends on his ability to hit, and hit with power. So far he is doing his end of the bargain. But with stockpile of SPs and premium positions (i.e. SS, C, CF) in the farm, it’s not hard to see Hoskins rank lower than his stat line.

    1. Rooms,

      Thanks for posting. This is almost word for word what I would have written.

      Hoskins has fewer holes and fewer questions than remaining prospects. He has moved fast as likely being in AA after just 1.5 years of pro ball for a reason, and that advancement has been based on consistent results.

      If the past is indicative of the future, Hoskins is the guy at Number 11.

      1. FrankF…..Hoskins does have a decent shot to before #15. But if you want to compare his advancement …strictly speaking now as a RHP-1B to any other current prospect you have to just look at Boston’s Sam Travis. Though both born in ’93, Travis 5 months younger, Travis is not considered in the same age category as Hoskins but has advanced further along. Hoskins has the size factor over Travis and possibly the power tool, but Travis has a more advanced hit tool.
        I think the Sox will start Travis at Portland again in the EL-AA and will go head to head wit Hoskins , at least for a few months, until the Sox bump him up to Pawtucket.

  6. I went Hoskins here although I need him to have a big year coming up to justify this ranking. Ben Lively does not get enough consideration, IMO. I think he has a shot to be in a Major League rotation, and although I would not put him in the top 15, I definitely have him in my top 20.

  7. I wrote in for Canelo here. Scouts call his defense plus, he has good speed, and enough power to have 40 XBHs last year. He struggled in Clearwater, but he was clearly more valuable than Hoskins in the same number of PAs at Lakewood, while being 18 months younger. I think he has the most upside of any position player left on the board.

    1. They came up to Clearwater together. While Canelo dropped from leadoff to the bottom of the order, Hoskins held down the clean up spot for the second half of the season. Hoskins also was an improvement at first over Zach Green (injury), Astudillo (too short), and anyone else they plugged in over there. Hoskins was more valuable at the higher level. Even though he is only a right-handed first baseman.

  8. I’m surprised Tirado is in the poll, but not Cordero, who I am pretty high on. I went Kingery here, but could easily be persuaded by 8-10 other names. Love the depth 10-30 that the Phils have accumulated.

    1. Thought Canelo and Cordero were in the poll previously. Canelo especially since he’s been high on national lists and I thought that was one of Jim’s criteria for initial inclusion. Maybe something went haywire in the poll.

      1. Also, FTR, “haywire” is a funny term. Gonna try to use it more often.

        “Brad, why did you put the baby’s diaper on backwards?”

        “Not backwards, ‘haywire’.”

    2. @msb,

      Sigh. As I stated early in the polling process, I started with MLB’s top 20 and BA’s top 10. Those two polls provided 22 players for the polls. Tirado was ranked 14th in MLB. That’s why he made the list.

      Cordero wasn’t ranked in the MLB top 30. That’s why he didn’t make the list. Canelo was ranked 21st in the MLB poll and just missed the cut.

      Canelo and Cordero have received one write in vote combined so far. No one has requested they be added. And when they are, it’s going to take more than one request to make the list.

      These polls are cumbersome to create. 18-22 names per poll are more than enough. I don’t want to have to handle 30-40 name polls like last year just so somebody’s favorite player can garner one vote for slots 14-30.

        1. People aren’t annoying, questions are. Or whatever. I had to explain the prospect choices the first few polls after explaining how I arrived at the list in the introductory article and the first poll.

          It’s been a while, some people are just joining the process. I should have been more professional. My apologies to msb.

        2. Oh, and you’re probably not old enough to know that “haywire” refers to the baling wire used to secure bundles of hay. When a wire broke, it would make that metallic “boing” sound and flail about until inertia slowed down and the ends came to a stop.

  9. When I was stationed in Omaha I got to see Winfield and Bonds in the College World Series and Winfield was fantastic and the experts said he was not good enough to play MLB and that he would go to the NBA. Winfield was so nice and would sign for hours and Bonds would not sign one and told me to go to hell when I asked.

  10. what impresses me most about hoskins is his remarkable consistency regardless of competition/level. his slash line for college, lakewood, clearwater and australiae are all eerily similar. maybe this is just what he does, if so, other than some of those doubles becoming home runs (and the related rise in slugging), it wouldnt surprise me if his numbers at reading (and then lehigh valley) mirror what he has done so far. that is certainly enough to earn a promotopn to cbp given their current 1b situation.

    As for his relative youth, ask yourself this: given what we know about potential tools and demonstrated ability who among those you would place ahead of him are more likely to be a phillies regular before age 25?

  11. Went with Kingery at this point although there are multiple players that all fall about the same. While I understand the love for Hoskins and he will probably win this round, I just don’t see it.

    He’s a RH 1b with minimal power. He just doesn’t profile as a major league regular 1b and since teams don’t carry exclusive pinch hitters anymore, he doesn’t have a fit. I expect he will be a career AAAA player who will get regular requests from fans to “give him his chance since he’s earned it” for years to come.

    He’s a solid hitter but doesn’t appear to have enough for the position he plays.

    1. I am guessing the “minimal power” comes from scouting the stat lines and seeing that Hoskins had less than 10 HR each in Lakewood and Clearwater. The scouting reports generally rate Hoskins’s raw power as plus. Lakewood and Clearwater arwe notorious for suppressing HR numbers. Babe Ruf didn’t have high HR numbers in those leagues either.

      1. I assume by “minimal power” he means relative to other 1B. He has plus raw power but optimistic projections seem to have him as a 25-30 home run guy, not a real slugger.

        3up may be a little harsh in his assessment but I think Hoskins needs to pretty much hit his ceiling to be a regular. If either the hit or power tool doesn’t reach their potential then he probably will be limited to AAAA-type.

        1. Your right that I might be a bit harsh in my assessment but we have this same discussion every year about some prospects who put up solid stat lines in the minors but really doesn’t have a defensive position.

          The bar for 1b is so high that hitting .300 with 15-20 hrs in AA ball doesn’t meet the standard. You can’t assume he is going to repeat his AA stat-line in the majors.

          1. This. In every High A league, there is a 22-23 year old 1st baseman that led the league in OPS with at least a .900 OPS. None of those players are considered great prospects either. The guys that are considered great at that age, get promoted to AA in their 2nd year and don’t start in low A.

          2. I completely agree but let’s see what Hoskins does in AA before we write him off. If he spends the whole season there and only has solid numbers and 15 home runs then yeah, there will be more people moving on from him.

            Hoskins was a little older than ideal for Clearwater, but not as old as Ruf, Rizzotti or Stassi, and he outhit all those guys at that level. Most importantly, the reaction from prospect sites is more along the lines of “wait and see” than outright dismissal, which is an important distinction. There’s an acknowledgement that he has a chance if he can “prove it” at higher levels.

            I have him in the late teens on my list, and though I’m sure he’ll win a round sooner than that I do believe that he’s at least a real prospect.

            1. I have no desire to write him off. I just think there are a few prospects that should be rated higher. I hope every Phillie prospect helps the big club eventually.

      2. Aron….it may be just the opposite…180 degrees… in Reading versus the LKW/CLW park suppression factor. It will still be tough call to evaluate his Power tool.

      3. Aron,

        Hoskins made some really loud outs to go along with his home runs and doubles in the games I saw him play at Clearwater. He’s got power. Now, whether it’s beyond 20 to 25 HR power, I don’t know, but I think it’s in that range if he can hit the better pitchers at AA and AAA.

      4. Yes, minimal power for the position. If he was a corner OF, I would say he has enough power but the bar for 1b is much higher.

      5. Of the thirty teams last year less than a third had a first baseman who hit at least 25 HR. Of those only 2 it over .280. I’m not saying Hoskins is assured of getting those numbers in the Majors but a first baseman’s production doesn’t need to be what it was 10 years ago.

        1. There were only 18 1b who were qualified for batting titles based on at-bats so it’s not a surprise that many teams didn’t have a 1b with over 25 hrs. of the 18 who did qualify, 8 of those players had more than 25 and I’ll give Miguel Cabrera a pass since he barely qualified and did manage to hit .338.

          In looking at the 10 2015 playoff teams, only Texas, Houston, KC, and STL didn’t have their regulars at 1b produce 25+ hrs. Toronto used a platoon and got 33 hrs combined from those two players.

          Houston’s Carter had 24 but hit for a terrible average
          Stl had their regular 1b (adams) go down with an injury and they played a number of players at 1b.
          Texas had Mitch Moreland who managed a 2.2 WARbut also had under 475 ABs
          KC’s had Eric Hosmer who IMO is the closest comp to Hoskin’s ceiling.

          Hosmer managed an .822 OPS and was a 3.6 war player.

  12. I could see any of Tocci, Pinto, Kingery, Medina, Canelo or Goeddel in this spot. For me it’s Tocci. I believe in the hit tool and he should be plus defensively in CF which gives him a pretty good floor. I just want to see him get a little stronger this year and put his speed to better use on the bases.

  13. Cozens had a break-out year, played at a high level and has big upside. Doesn’t look like he’ll win this round but please consider him for 12th.

  14. Good article today by Mitch Rupert , interview with Joe Jordan, director of player development… can get the link on his twitter.. he discusses Hoskins, Rocco, Kilome , eflin..

  15. Wow…the top 10 is done and look at all these names…any idea where our system ranks around the league?

  16. Tocci obviously suffers from familiarity bias. If he were a 2015 draft pick playing excellent centerfield and mashing full season A ball, he’s easily be a top 10 prospect.

    1. This is true for me. And not just with Tocci. I see most of the players as they come through the GCL, ST, XST, and Clearwater. So, I see their failures as well as their successes. This familiarity probably affects the way I see most prospects. I’m aware of it and try to overcome it.

      That said, I don’t want to belabor the discussion on Tocci, but his numbers dropped off in August. This was his third year in full season ball, so I won’t accept “he got tired” as a valid excuse. Why? Because I saw that outfielders adjust to Tocci by playing him shallower than other players in the Threshers’ line up. They were willing to give up the gaps to take away his line drive singles. It worked. His August numbers were abysmal.

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