Open Discussion: Week of November 23rd

How quickly things change.  In less than 4 weeks, could the fans’ honeymoon with new GM Matt Klentak be over?

Not too long ago, the Phillies introduced Klentak to the media at a news conference on October 26th.  Since then the GM has been involved in only a few publicly observed team decisions and a couple of press conferences that revealed some of his thoughts –

  • 11/2 – the Phillies declined Cliff Lee‘s option,
  • 11/2 – Klentak stated that he would preserve the core offense, improve pitching, continue to focus on young talent,
  • 11/3 – the Phillies claimed RHP Dan Otero off waivers from Oakland Athletics,
  • 11/5 – Klentak explained how Howard and Ruiz fit into the team’s 2016 plans, and reiterated that he is committed to the core group of young prospects,
  • 11/6 – Klentak stated that the Phillies would take best payer with first pick in the draft regardless of whether that player is high school, college, position player, or pitcher; that the drop in value off from 1:1 to 1:2 is the largest delta among any picks in the draft; and that prospects will dictate their own timeline to the majors by performance,
  • 11/11 – Klentak opined that there is more than one way to build a winner,
  • 11/12 – the Phillies signed free agent LHP James Russell to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training,
  • 11/14 – Arizona Diamondbacks traded RHP Jeremy Hellickson to Philadelphia Phillies for RHP Sam McWilliams,
  • 11/18 – the Phillies invited non-roster RHPs Reinier Roibal and Chris Leroux to spring training; and signed free agents Ryan Jackson (2B), Frank Herrmann (RHP), and Emmanuel Burriss (2B) to minor league contracts with invitations to spring training,
  • 11/20 -The Phillies claimed A.J. Achter off waivers from the Minnesota Twins; and selected the contracts of Roman Quinn, Jimmy Cordero, and Edubray Ramos from Reading Fightin Phils.

The decision to trade McWilliams for Hellickson sparked some discussion among the prospect-following community as bloggers and readers weighed in on it.  The general consensus was that while the Phillies may or may not have been able to pick up a similar pitcher from the free agent heap, the acquisition of Hellickson for a GCL prospect was a reasonable risk.  Although those who have followed or seen McWilliams would have preferred a different trade piece offered by the Phillies.

The real maelstrom occurred Friday when the Phillies claimed a right-handed reliever off waivers in Achter who has roughly a 90 mph fastball, then left players like Carlos Tocci and Alberto Tirado unprotected for this year’s Rule 5 Selection Selection Meeting.

I read some nasty comments on Twitter and in blogs directed toward Klentak, and I read inferences that the Phillies had returned to the ways of the old regime (actually, inference is probably not a strong enough word).


The following is an update of the Phillies’ offseason roster status, which currently stands at 37 players –

Free Agents (5)

  • Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, Jerome Wiliams, Chad Billingsley, and Jeff Francoeur

Guaranteed Contracts (4) – contract information from COTS

  • Ryan Howard ($25M for 2016, $23M club option or $10M buyout for 2017)
  • Matt Harrison ($13M for 2016, $13M for 2017, $13.5M club option or $2M buyout for 2018)
  • Carlos Ruiz ($8.5M for 2016, $4.5M club option or $0.5M buyout for 2017)
  • Miguel Gonzalez ($4M for 2016, and a vesting option for 2017).

Arbitration Eligible Players (4) – salary projections from Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors

  • Jeremy Hellickson ($6.6M)
  • Andres Blanco ($1.0M)
  • Jeanmar Gomez ($1.5M)
  • Freddy Galvis. (1.9M)

(29) Remaining roster players – Elvis Araujo, Alec Asher, Jesse Biddle, David Buchanan, Jerad Eickhoff, Luis Garcia, Ken Giles, Severino Gonzalez, Dalier Hinojosa, Mario Hollands, Adam Morgan, Colton Murray, Hector Heris, Aaron Nola, Nefi Ogando, Joely Rodriguez, Jorge Alfaro, Cameron Rupp, Maikel Franco, Cesar Hernandez, Darin Ruf, Darnell Sweeney, Aaron Altherr, Cody Asche, Odubel Herrera, A.J. Achter, Roman QuinnJimmy Cordero, Edubray Ramos

Fall Ball

in the VWL, Miguel Gonzalez allowed an unearned run in his most recent start.  He gave up 7 hits and 2 walks in 5.0 innings while striking out none.  He has a 4.13 ERA in 7 starts – 12 BB, 19 K in 32.2 IP.

Rhys Hoskins (.257/.321/.514) and Cord Sandberg (.275/.373/.373) have cooled off a little bit in Australia.

The AFL completed its season last week.  Drew Stankiewicz (.483/.531/.621) responded well after his call up following J.P. Crawford’s thumb injury.  Tom Windle (1.74 in 10 appearances) pitched well.  Yacksel Rios (2-2, 5.14) got lit up in his final start and saw his ERA jump by about 3.00, however he pitched well in his other starts.

In the DWL, Joely Rodriguez has a 2.50 ERA in 5 appearance/4 starts in the DWL.  Ranfi Casimiro has posted a 2.57 ERA in 3 starts.  Relievers Ulises Joaquin (3.24, 9K in 8.1 IP)and Jimmy Cordero (2.45 ERA in 7 appearances) are throwing well.  AS is Nefi Ogando (1.93 in 6 appearance).  Maikel Franco still hasn’t played yet.

In Puerto Rico, Jesmuel Valentin has put up a respectable .262/.314/.323 in 65 AB.  Hoby Milner has posted an ERA of 0.00 in 8 appearances.  Reinier Roibal has a 2.45 ERA in 3 starts – 11 IP, 10 K, 3 BB.

The US entry in the WBSC Premier 12 in Japan took silver when they lost to South Korea in the final.  ( Roly de Armas was one of the coaches.  Cody Forsythe, Joey Denato, and Kyle Martin were on the USA team.)

187 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of November 23rd

  1. A very nice synopsis of the month of November. The Phils have been active but not too crazy. They’ve made a few “strange” moves but nothing that is so off-the-wall to start an “I hate Klentak” post already. I like his moves so far. When the dust clears, we’ll see where the team is. If they continue on their 2nd half successes, They could end up with 77 wins. If some of the young guys get to contribute to the big club and are successful right from the beginning, we could see a .500 ball club. I’m certainly not expecting that but it’s possible.

    The most impressive Winter League guy, who you forgot to mention, has been Victor Arano. I know it’s the Mexican Leagues but he’s been a standout. He’s given up 1 earned run in 18+ innings. He has 17 Ks and 2 (and 1 was intentional) BBs. He’s put a lot of inning on his arm this year (142) so it will be interesting to see if he can expand on his success next year.

  2. Could the fact that Tocci is no where close to stick with a major league club a reason as to why he was left unprotected? I highly doubt a team would leave him on the roster unless maybe they feel as though keeping him on as a defensive replacement is a good idea?

    I just feel as though that could be a reason as he was unprotected. Klentak feeling as though no one would claim him because of that fact.

    1. One beat writer agrees with your assessment. Todd Zo.

      @HankRearden1…. No, they needed to be protected, but weren’t. Not at a high risk to be selected.
      11:28 AM – 20 Nov 2015

    2. It has only been 4 weeks, so I hesitate to assign any of these decisions solely to Klentak. I have to believe that he had plenty of input from his staff.

      While I agree that after watching Tocci for half a season with Clearwater it is unlikely that he sticks on a major league roster, his selection by an equally bad team can’t be ruled out, a team that doesn’t expect to compete for a playoff berth and can afford to try the Odubel Herrera route the Phillies followed last year.

      He could also be an attractive option for teams who are talking about moving high-priced center fielders like Bourn (ATL) and Ozuna (MIA).

      His selection isn’t likely but it can’t be ruled out.

      1. There is absolutely zero chance that Tocci gets selected. Very unlikely that Tirado gets selected, but possible

  3. I highly doubt tocci gets picked. But Tirado is a different story. I think he’s as good as gone. Maybe we get lucky there though.

    1. Tirado is similar in that sense that he has pitched only in high A just this past season. Figuring neither get selected to be honest.

  4. Are there really people who are so lazy to compare Klentak automatically to RAJ? If anything that just shows that people have no imagination or they didn’t like the Klentak hiring to begin with.

      1. To criticize individual Klentak moves is not to equate Klentak with RAJ. Really though, the biggest organizational change has been in ownership, not Klentak replacing RAJ. The owners determined so much of what Wade and RAJ did. I find it difficult to defend keeping Howard and not protecting Tirado. I agree Tocci unlikely to be taken, but think he would be a real loss. He has more of a future than his detractors would have you believe. There are many who simply refuse to correct stats for age vs league.

        1. Howard is a sunk cost. There’s also no viable replacement at 1B as of this point. There’s nothing wrong with letting him play out the string this year.

          1. Sorry, but I don’t get your logic. Yes, he is a sunk cost, so it costs us nothing to simply release him. Yes this is his last year and the Phillies won’t contend, so he isn’t a part of a future winning team and there seems no reason to keep him another year. Finally, he is a negative WAR both offensively and defensively (using his 2015 season, which he is highly unlikely to improve upon), so we would do better overall in 2015 with a replacement-level player. Actually, we would have won 2 more games in 2015 with a replacement-level player at 1B in place of Howard. Now in a strict platoon with Ruf, you get a positive offensive WAR, but still negative on D. There is really no reason I see to keep Howard.

            1. Then we agree to disagree. You just don’t dump guys like Ryan Howard to the curb when they’ve had a positive impact for the team and in the community.

            2. The best we will get at 1B is a Howard/Ruf platoon. Should have been implemented at least two years ago.

            3. What they’ve done in the past or in the community should have ZERO to do with your decision to keep him or cut him loose. Please this kinda thinking is why we have at the very bottom for the past few years.

  5. It would be interesting to see how many teams have ever taken in a Rule V draft a position player that has never played above A ball let alone taken that player and kept them on their 25 man for a full season.

      1. Theo Epstein, was on the Cub’s GM job for less then two months and that was one of his first moves in his first Rule 5 draft..

        1. It’s still early. I’m not drunk yet, but he’s easily one of the best 15-20 prospects available. It’s not hard to envision one of the best prospects available, being selected. It’s also very easy to stick a live arm on your 25 man roster.

          1. If there is even a small chance we could lose a pitcher who could be a part of the future, why risk that while protecting someone like Joely Rodriguez?

      1. 100% He gets picked by a bad team.. That team will use him in blow outs this year. In three years they will have a stud.

          1. Johann Santana in Dec ’99, selected by the Marlins, then in 2000 had a very mediocre season with the Twins, the rest is history.

            1. My apologies….someone more recent, how about…..Joakim Soria….Dec’ 06: Drafted Rule 5 by KC from Pads

        1. Thought he was just looking for Rule 5 pitchers as a historical precedent that went on to have notable careers. But you do realize Joakim Soria was not signed as a 16-year old, like Tirado, but as an 18-year old, therein lies the two year difference in age.

          1. If you can count on one hand the amount of times a team has taken a pitcher in the Rule V and that pitcher gone on to become a stud three years down the road, I would say that the chances of it happening with Tirado are between slim and none.

    1. I can’t assign a percentage, but look at it this way. Teams generally carry 12 pitchers – 5 starters, a closer, and 2 set-up men. Even if a team carried a 3rd set-up pitcher, that leaves 3 spots for middle and long relievers. Give one to a loogy, and you can still stash a young arm at the back end of a bullpen.

      And a lot of teams carry an extra pitcher at the beginning of the season. I think it’s likely that he gets selected and may even get an MLB look much like Seth Rosin in 2014.

    2. 5% and 1%. The risk is low. Tocci is 0% and 0%. He is the least vulnerable unprotected prospect in the history of the Phillies organization. And I’m a Tocci fan. Always have been. He’s a ceiling 4th outfielder, but I’m still a fan. No chance he gets drafted

  6. While I love the collected passion on this board for prospects, its biggest flaw is its general overvaluation of prospects.

    1) We traded a rookie ball pitcher, who’s not even among our Top 30 prospects, who’s years away from developing, who–history tells us–has less than a 10% chance of ever even reaching the show, for a MLB innings-eating SP with some upside.

    And, no, we would not find in FA on a one-year, $6 million deal anything close to Jeremy Hellickson. And, for the final time, not all 5th starters are fungible and replaceable. Case in point: Jerome Williams last year. Hellickson should be a big improvement over him.

    It was a great deal for the Phillies. The only reason you can argue against it is because you’re overvaluing prospects.

    2) Right now, fans of every team–from the Mets to the Twins to the Astros to the Cardinals–are complaining about the players their franchise exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Tocci hasn’t even been drafted–and almost certainly won’t–and yet this board is bemoaning our GMs decision to leave him unprotected? I’ll call that being a shrewd GM–being able to gauge which players will or will not be protected, and adjusting the 40-man accordingly.

    How many pitchers similar to Tirado have been exposed? Have you seen who’s been left off the Houston and Minnesota rosters? We’re not operating in a vacuum here. We’re not the only team who left-off two low-level minor leaguers from our 40-man roster.

    Prospects are a mean to the end–with the end itself success at the Major League level. Not the end itself!

    1. Yeah, I hear you. To me, it’s not so much that Tirado was exposed, it’s the number of utterly fungible pitchers who are on the 40 man roster who prevented Tirado from being protected. Many of them are pitchers who are, at best, incidental to the team’s long-term success. If the scouting reports on Tirado’s upside are accurate, I would not have risked exposing him so I could place someone like Achter or Colton Murray on the 40 man. And, yes, it’s not hard at all for a bad team to hide a good arm as a 12th man for a year – he becomes the garbage time pitcher. No big deal. It’s much more difficult to hide a position player these days.

      1. Your “it’s the number of utterly fungible pitchers who are on the 40 man roster who prevented Tirado from being protected” comment is right on. Losing a Joely Rodriguez or not having an AJ Achter will almost certainly have no effect on the this team when they are ready to contend in a couple of years. Tirado (from most reports) has the ceiling that most of the “fungible” pitchers being protected can’t even sniff. Why even risk losing him ?

      2. This is encapsulates my opinion on the Tirado situation. I won’t lose any sleep, even if the team loses him. What I don’t understand is WHO the Phillies chose to protect on the roster over him. There are at least 3 relievers they could have cut, that are easier to replace than your #14 rated prospect, who has a better arm than half your bullpen.

        It’s not so much that it would be a great loss, rather its an unnecessary chance to take.

    2. Agree with @J64 here. I can see the reason to keep Buchanan and SevGon since the Phils don’t have enough depth in SP. Joely gets in since he is LHP and he can be a good bullpen arm. The are 3 opens spots – FA OF (Frenchy), veteran SP and Rule V.

      I think the outright criticism is due to the fact that RHP relief pitchers like Achter, Murray, Neris are given (3) spots considering the list of more able (7) RH arms in Giles, Garcia, Hinojosa, Gomez, Cordero, Ramos and Otero.

      The Achter-Murray-Nerris spots could have used to protect Tirado, Munoz or (Tocci) add another spot for Rule V prospects or sign veteran if needed.

      1. I’d really like to see them grab 2 rule V picks. Can they not DFA one of these relievers later to open up a spot for a FA?

      2. Yeah, I agree with that. Would add Hinojosa to the list that can be dropped. What he did for us last year was a mirage–my best guess is that he’s out of baseball by June.

      3. KuKo…unfortunately the average fan may not get a concrete explanation for the decision from the Phillies FO. And if Tirado or Tocci are not selected, then it is a moot point.
        The strict relievers now on the 40 are:
        A.J. Achter, Elvis Araujo, Jimmy Cordero, Luis Garcia, Ken Giles, Jeanmar Gomez Dalier Hinojosa, Mario Hollands, Colton Murray, Hector Neris, Nefi Ogando, Dan Otero, Edubray Ramos, Joely Rodriguez ….seems to be plenty, a few left off, as you mentioned above, would not hurt.

      4. KuKo…..slipped my mind….the only other possible rationale I could think of by not protecting them, is minor league options. .Once a player has been placed on a team’s 40-man roster, a team has 3 option years on that player. A player is considered to have used one of those three option years when he spends at least 20 days in the minors in any of those 3 seasons. By putting Tocci and Tirado on this year, they will use one of them up, plus when they do become more attractive valued players they will only be 22/23 and could have to be exposed, if they have not reached the 25-active and are out of options.

        1. @ Romus – agree with you. But I think Tocci and Tirado will be solid contributors in 2 years time and which they deserve to be in a 25-man roster. Personally, burning 1 year of option is a price i can take than risk of potentially losing Tirado. (I think Tocci will not be picked)

          1. I have to agree with Todd Zolecki on Tirado…unlikely he gets selected.
            Very few A level guys get selected, and if do, remain with that the team.
            But there are always risks.

    3. You’re right about most of this … except for the most important part.

      A team in the position that the Phillies are in can’t afford to give away high upside talent for talent that won’t contribute to the team’s eventual success. In this light, the trade for Hellickson was defensible, because McWilliams, while reasonably high upside, was such a long shot, and Hellickson can (indirectly) contribute to the rebuild by soaking up innings (and thus putting less strain on young arms). But risking losing Tirado – a high upside arm that is much more likely to contribute than McWilliams – in order to retain a couple of very fungible relievers who won’t contribute significantly to the rebuild – that’s not a smart move.

      It would be interesting to know what the rational for the move was.

      1. LarryM…the more I think about it, the decision was not so much in keeping fungible pitchers at the expense of a good minor leaguer with greater upside, but was the fact that burning an option year at his 21st birthday which is on Dec 10th, could increase the probability that Tirado, if as good as advertised, may not be able to be protected in 2018 and lost for sure. I do not see him on the active 25 in ’16 nor ’17 and but maybe ’18 if he is able to progress as they hope.
        I like Klentak’s move…almost genius…..he is gambling a MLB team will not keep an A-level pitcher the entire year, it has been done, but very rarely. However, of the 18 teams selecting, I see approx. 10 being able to take that chance…and two in the division Miami and Atlanta. It is a risk.

    4. On the trade: you made some assumptions to justify it, but at least one of them is probably true or else it would be a foolish move. Unfortunately, we don’t know which one(s) the Phillies believe.

      It could be reasonably argued, using the information available to the public, that McWilliams was in our top 30 prospects towards #30. And why does Hellickson have upside? Because he was a top prospect? Because he had good ERAs with bad peripherals in his first couple years? Maybe he does have some upside; I haven’t really seen him pitch much, but his average fastball is 90 mph. It’s not like he’s got great stuff that he just hasn’t harnessed. Lastly, you assume that Hellickson’s cheapness was a key to the Phillies interest. I think/hope that that isn’t true, at least not to the extent that they would trade a prospect they liked just to save a little cash. Since they spent money in trades to acquire prospects recently, that seems unlikely.

      Also, what’s the bar to be an “innings eater” these days? Hellickson’s pitched 210 innings in the last two seasons combined and his career high is 189 IP, in 2011. It’s the only year he exceeded 180 innings.

      1. Thank you. This trade made zero sense to me and you outlined some of my thinking. He was also said to have made very positive strides with his mechanics this past year. He was one guy I was really interested to see how he would preform this year. Again 6’7 RHP who throw in the low to mid 90s don’t grow on trees. I’m not sure how many of you guys played baseball and at what levels but I remember facing 2 guys in back to back games (Steinert HS, a powerhouse in central jersey) first Mike Rogers (NC State all American and I believe drafted in like the 3 or 4th round) who was 6ft, threw 91-93. Then the next day faced another hard thrower Chris Neylan (drafted by the Expos) who threw the same 91-93 but Chris was about 6’6 . . . Chris looked to throw 3-4 mph harder bc of his height (perceived velocity). The 6’7 and throwing in the low 90’s getting into the mid 90’s is going to look closer to 95-97. I wouldn’t have given him up for a JH type, that’s for sure.

  7. Does anyone remember the wailing and knashing of teeth when Seth Rosin was selected in the Rule V? That was the worst move ever at the time. Where is Rosin now? The stud bullpen piece he was pumped up to be at the time of the Rule V?

  8. Actually the more I think about it, the more I think it was a smart move to leave Tocci off the 40-man. First of all, unlike some commentators, I really think it’s tough to imagine him being stashed all season on a major league roster. I don’t think any team’s bench is long enough to hold a skinny 20-year-old who likely can’t hit the ball out of the infield against major league pitching. And if you protect Tocci, you run into an issue in 3 years, when he is out of options. I like Tocci and think there’s definitely a chance that he’ll be a major league player but I also think it will probably take more than 3 years. I’d hate to run the risk of having to pass him through waivers as a 23 or 24-year-old.

    1. Yeah, I don’t think too many people are all that upset about Tocci, for the reasons that you state. But Tirado is a different matter – much more likely to be selected. Also IMO options are less likely to be a problem.

      1. I disagree.
        Options could be the primary issue for not exposing an A level prospect.
        It is not an uncommon practice.
        So for example Tirado was protected last week. His first option in his 20age season. Next season he does as expected, 2nd option 21age season and then 2017 his third option…and at that time more then likely Reading/LHV performing…..he either makes the 25man or he gets exposed at 23age season. He ,and IF progresses as expected, will probably be open for exposure in that Rule 5…and he will also have at that time adequate MiLB experience and can be kept on a 25man somewhere in the bullpen.
        Not exposing him now as an A level prospect is somewhat less risky then in three years from now.

      2. Matt Winkelman seems to think there’s a chance Tocci will be picked, which is why I brought it up. I also think it’s unlikely, but I guess the counterargument is it really only takes one team that likes him and is willing to play with 24 men and one scrawny boy all season.

        Tirado definitely does seem like someone who might be picked, but there also seem to be a lot of guys who fit his skill set. Seems unlikely he’d stick with a team all season giving up more than a walk per inning, especially since the role of the last guy in the bullpen is usually to mop up, throw strikes, get the game over with with limited damage, etc.

        OTOH, this is one of those areas where I am inclined to believe the Phillies talent evaluators have a good handle on what they’ve got and the risks involved. If they left Tirado off, they must be pretty convinced he’s can’t stick in a MLB bullpen.

        1. I can see Tocci being selected by a non-contending team, but IMO, the Mets’ Becerra and Astros’ Hernandez are two OFers that could go before him.
          What I find interesting is the concept of drafting for need or drafting best available in this particular forum.
          MacPhail/Klentak keep mentioning pitching is their objective…but so many have a flaw or two…..especially when it comes to command and control issues.
          OTOH, some of the positional players appear to be more attractive.
          Nevertheless, I hope they can break the poor number one pick syndrome for Rule 5 selections.

  9. Well it’s clear the word of the offseason is “fungible.”

    Seriously, we are complaining about a guy who will probably be nothing in 3 years. The purpose of the team is to get a little bit better next year and the year after that, so when we are ready to compete, we are only a couple of pieces away. Hillickson will make us better next year. He won’t be worse than Jerome Williams, that’s for sure.

    And this stuff with Tocci. Who is seriously going to grab him to sit in the bench next year? The guy plays great defense with the bat of a 4th outfielder. That’s probably his future. That future is probably 3 years away. And you guys are up in arms?!? Seriously!?!

    There are no less than 8 serious rule V guys I’d want over Sam McWilliams and Carlos Tocci and Tirado. You guys are insane.

    1. “There are no less than 8 serious rule V guys I’d want over Sam McWilliams and Carlos Tocci and Tirado…”

      That’s not the point. I like about 5 of the available Rule 5 guys better than Tirado too, but the Phillies didn’t have to choose ‘either/or’. They could have protected Tirado and Tocci and still selected whoever they wanted. It was not necessary to leave either unprotected.

    2. You are right we should get better and better each year but JH will do NOTHING for our future and won’t be involved in our future either. SM had a chance at that, whether you think it’s slim or zero is besides the point. To people pointing to the fact that JH can be moved at the deadline, id ask where is your evidence that he is going to be worth anything? He certainly hasnt in years, bringing him in a hitters ball park sure isn’t going to help. BTW Bud Norris (who has upside that JH doesnt have) just signed with the braves (a terrible team) on a 1 year deal for far less then the money JH is making. So to whoever it was who was saying bad teams get can guys on 1 year deals, there goes 1 of them.

  10. Former Phillies prospect news:

    •The Diamondbacks have added righty Kyle Drabek on a minors deal, according to Eddy. He joins outfielder Kyle Jensen and third baseman Carlos Rivero as Arizona minor league free agent signees. Once one of the game’s best-regarded pitching prospects with the Blue Jays, the 27-year-old Drabek did not live up to his promise in Toronto. But he did toss a solid 137 1/3 innings last year at Triple-A for the White Sox, working to a 3.47 ERA with 5.5 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.

  11. Angelys Nina seems like a decent depth find but I thought we had a bunch of these guys in the system already.

  12. Just a random comment, the Rule 5 draft as a whole is dated and needs to be done away with. Its not fair to the players, none of whom are ready for the majors, to basically lose a year of development when they should be getting as many at bats or innings pitched as possible. For every 1 Rule 5 pick who pans out, 10 have their growth as a prospect stunted.

    1. I’m not so sure the players themselves would agree with you dan. It’s a pretty significant pay raise for them and you can’t beat the perks that come with being on a MLB roster for a season.

    2. It’s not fair to the players? A player does 5 years in the minors for $5,000 per season. With no Rule 5, a fringe player could sit in the minors forever. This rule at least gets the player the opportunity to be discussed for the 40 man major league roster, and the $67,000 per season that comes with it. Not to mention the $414,000 he has a chance to get, to change his life.

      1. 414k for one year doesnt change someones life. its nice and all, but not nearly as nice as a few million per year could be if they get the proper reps and development time in the minors

        1. “414k for one year doesnt change someones life.”

          Tell that to hundreds of Latin players (Jairo Muñoz) who’ve signed for basically nothing. They earn less than minimum wage playing minor league baseball, and would make less than that back in their own country. I guarantee 414K is life changing to most of the Phillies’ VSL and DSL rosters.

          1. Not to mention that being on the MLB roster gives them pension and medical insurance benefits. Then there are guys like Herrera who turn the Rule 5 draft into earning a starting job, which he will carry at least into season 2. If not for Rule 5 he had a full 2015 and possibly 2016 in the minors to look forward to, since he was not near the top of the Rangers’ depth chart.

            For a minimum wage worker in much of this country (and minor leaguers make less than minimum wage) $414K is close to a lifetime’s income.

            1. Exactly. Without the Rule 5, Odubal Herrera would have probably made 10K over the 2015-16 seasons. And even then, he would still have a hard time making the Rangers ML roster due to being blocked at every position. Because of the Rule 5 the guy will make close to 900K over the same period, and probably make enough of an impact to squeeze out a pension from MLB. How is that not life changing?

    3. The Rule 5 draft is a terrific thing for the players. It not only gives some players a shot at a ML roster but it also forces teams to put guys on their 40-man rosters sooner than the team might want which starts the clock on player options.

      Were I disagree with most of the comments on the Rule V, specifically about Tirado is that teams are just not able to waste a 25-man roster spot to hide a player anymore. In today’s game, the average starter goes 5-6 innings which requires 30%-40% of a teams innings to be covered by the bullpen. Every man in the pen needs to be able to carry their weight when you figure they have to account for around 650 innings in a full season.

      Teams can’t stash a player who can only pitch in blow-outs, especially a guy with significant control issues who might not even be able to get through an inning. We saw that problem with Aumont not being able to get out of innings because he couldn’t find the plate.

      As for Tocci, with most teams carrying that extra reliever they can’t afford to have an offensive black hole sitting on the bench unless they can cover multiple defensive positions in both the IF and OF.

          1. If Thiggy can’t get him right then no one can. Thiggy is one of the best BP coaches in the game today. Bobby Thigpen that is.

            1. DMAR…….Tirado has drawn loads of discussion for his 40-unprotection, from your connection to CWS has Williams/Hahn drawn similar discussion for leaving RHP Luis Martinez off their 40. His physical upside, built like Kilome, and his stuff are intriguing.

        1. I’m glad he’s getting another chance. I feel bad for this guy. He seemed to try very hard and has a ton of ability but it appears he got a lot of conflicting advice from coaches (all of whom I’m sure were doing their best) and just couldn’t hold it together. I feel bad for him mostly, however, because I think he came from a very difficult family situation – it sounds like he was pretty much on his own as a young teenager in Canada. That’s a fate I wouldn’t wish on anyone and that has to be incredibly difficult to overcome; I hope he does well and can keep his life together.

          1. Ya, I had heard that. Although sometimes you can have to much family. Howard is a strange example of that. Where he basically gave his finances to his family and got run through the mill, and then it caused great division. The falling out with his family was happening around the same time he blew out his Achilles and than his rehab. Not sure which is worse; having no family, or a family that hates and envious while they are trying to embezzle your funds?

  13. Hey Romus…I’ll have to remember to ask about Luis Martinez. I know most of the talk was about how samardzija really under performed and how surprised they were that Rodon under performed once called up.

    They had really pinned their hopes on those two and Robertson but as with everything in life even the best laid plans can crumble.

    Quietly they are also happy to be rid of Parent and Alexei

    1. Yes….all teams have their disappointments. Ramirez was not the answer at ss, but I like Carlos Rodon’s upside with his youthfulness and stuff, like most all teams probably would.
      And former popular Phil CFer Aaron Rowand back with them, that’s a good move..

      1. The knock on Ramirez wasn’t really his production or his defense. He tended to just do his own thing. He didn’t like signs apparently and wasn’t really willing to move runners when the situation called for it.

      1. I like Guduan. I think he’s my first choice of a guy to add, but honestly of all the guys in the draft, Tirado is the guy I want most.

        1. In 1988 the Braves had the first selection in the Rule 5…..they selected their own player that they left unprotected…former Phil RHP Big Ben Rivera…the only time that has happened.

  14. I see the Braves signed former Phillies, Williams Astudillo, Reid Brignac, Chase d’Arnaud. They got minor league deals with spring training invites.

    1. Brignac had good season for us in AAA last year. D’Arnaud had his moments for us this year, but on the whole, only so-so.

  15. Last 20 Number One Rule 5 Picks:
    2014-Oscar Hernandez
    2013-Patrick Schuster
    2012-Joshua Fields
    2011-Rhiner Cruz
    2010-Josh Rodriguez
    2009-Jamie Hoffmann
    2008-Terrell Young
    2007-Tim Lahey
    2006-Ryan Goleski
    2005-Fabio Castro
    2004-Angel Garcia
    2003-Chris Shelton
    2002-Enrique Cruz
    2001-Kevin McGlinchy
    2000-Scott Chiasson
    1999-Jared Camp
    1998-Alberto Blanco
    1997-Jeff Huson
    1996-Edgar Ramos
    1995-Joe jacobsen
    ….hope the Phillies team of MacPhail/Klentak can fare better then this previous rather pedestrian list.

    1. haha what a list. so many of those guys spent time with the phillies, including edgar ramos who i think had one MLB start, and tim lahey, who is a great trivia answer bc he made the 2008 phillies roser but never played

    2. I love when people design lists with parameters that serve their arguments by omitting the most crucial information. This list is designed to support the argument that the Rule 5 draft has been a complete failure, when the poster knows full well that this is not true. How about Odubel Herrera? Was that a failure?

      1. J64….mind reader now eh?
        FYI…..those are the facts …like them or leave them….draw your own conclusions, in any event get over it.
        .’ This list is designed to support the argument that the Rule 5 draft has been a complete failure, ‘
        How about this list:
        Roberto Clemente…José Bautista ….George Bell ….Paul Blair ….Bobby Bonilla
        Everth Cabrera ….Alfredo Simon …..Jody Davis …..Darrell Evans ….Jason Grilli
        Kelly Gruber ….Josh Hamilton ….Willie Hernández ….Dave Hollins ….John Hudek
        Johan Santana ….Joakim Soria …..Manny Trillo …Derrick Turnbow ….Dan Uggla
        Fernando Viña ….Shane Victorino ….Jayson Werth.

        .—– minor league portion. —Dave May….Evan Meek ….Mike Morgan… Jeff Nelson …Alexi Ogando …..Scott Podsednik …..Bip Roberts

        Now has the poster please you now?

  16. Agreed, however it’s probably much more of a crap shoot to have the first pick with Rule 5 vs the draft? Odubel and Shane were nice gems and neither were the #1 pick.

    1. Yeah, Rule 5 ;much more of a crapshoot than Rule 4. That is a depressing list, especially since it covers so many years before MLB provided an additional year of team control.

  17. All htis love for a Single A RH reliever that throws mid-90s and less and walked at a 7+ per nine clip. Eh.

  18. Tommy Kahnle, remember him? WSox just got him. He was the minor leaguer that RAJ turned down in a trade offer for Michael Young. And Buster Olney or one of those guys, was furious at the Phils for not accepting the deal. Just a minor footnote as we get ready for the Rule 5

  19. My choices for the Phillies would be: Luis Perdomo, Teoscar Hernandez and/or Peter Tago. But mind tells me the pick will be either Dwight Smith or Tyler Goeddell.

          1. OK. I get that. Teoscar Hernandez is a very raw lottery ticket, so I can understand not wanting him. Peter Tago is just a personal fave of mine, because I liked him in his draft and he looks like he could be finally turning into something. I just feel those guys have some upside because of their tools.
            I really think the 1st pick will be Dwight Smith Jr, because he has maybe the highest floor and will easily stick as a viable 5th OF, but I’m not enamored with the thought of the safe pick.

        1. FYI – my apologies for pissing you off. I thought the list was of the Phillies’ first picks not all picks. Knowing that it’s clear that you were not trying to selectively use data.

          Your posts are routinely well-thought out and excellent. I should have read the post more carefully.

          Have a great Thanksgiving :).

  20. I say they try to move Giles for the BPA, then reunite with Ryan Madson on a 2 year deal and then try to move him at the deadline once he has put up another good season. Love the comeback story. I think we might be able to get him on that 1-2 year deal if he will be told he will close for us.

    1. Good plan. Giles is a great fit for lots of teams and will definitely bring back a young staring caliber OF or pitcher. Bringing Madson back as a closer is an interest g thought too.

  21. Yeah, a topic other than Rule 5. Franco has been in or is playing in 3 games in the Dominican. He has 2 HRs and 3 RBIs already. I guess he’s liking the home cooking, aye?

    1. IMO, Wuilmer Becerra, from the Mets, could be the best of the bunch when all is said and done in a few years down the road. Trouble he and Tocci, both friends from the Ven, have similar defensive skills, but 180 degrees in a hit tool….one can hit for power with lower contact ability, Becerra, and the other can hit with contact ability but limited to no power, Tocci.

  22. You need to read this story on
    It is in the Sports Section. It is Special Series by Mike Sielski, called “Hope on the Diamond”. It is about one of the Phillies young pitchers and one day may be made into a movie.

  23. To watch this Eagles team be so awful, to watch the Sixers tie an all time futility record, and to see 99 Phillies losses is just so sad…. It is so hard to be a Philly sports fan…. When will any of these teams get back to being a winning team, let alone a pkayoff team?

    1. Murray….as four professional team cities’ goes….Philadelphia may have set the record for the most losses in one professional year…over 200 or something.

      1. Yes, but the most depressing news from yesterday (on Eagles Postgame show) is that, of all the Philadelphia professional teams, the Phillies have the highest winning percentage for 2015. Yikes!!!

      2. It’s the nature of the beast. Baseball teams just don’t win less than 30% or more than 70% of their games, but teams in other sports do. The Eagles could still finish 2nd in their division — they have been awful, but not awful enough to earn a truly primo draft slot. Also, missing our 2nd rounder, we are highly unlikely to have a transformative 2016 draft.

  24. The pitchers available in the Rule 5 draft seem to be some variation of Tirado; unless they plan on making 2 selections, I don’t think that losing him is a risk worth taking

  25. MLB pipeline’s Jim Duquette, proposed a trade of Aroldis Chapman for Daz Cameron and Michael Feliz as fair value. If Houston offered Michael Feliz and Daz Cameron(or Kyle Tucker) for Ken Giles, I’d jump at the offer.

      1. G$..have to weigh the pros and cons when evaluating their respective values.
        Chapman is more experienced and has over 300 IPed on his arm and next season is his age-28 season and his last on his current contract. Free agent in ’17.
        Giles, onthe other hand, inexperienced, controlled but has a plus-plus MLB metric line so far and three years younger.
        So, MacPhail/Klentak would have to see what Luhnow and company value more.

      2. He’s a more valuable PLAYER to be sure, but he doesn’t have more value in a trade because he’s about to become a free agent in 2017 whereas Giles has another 5 years under team control. Those control rights make Giles a more valuable trade commodity to most teams.

        1. Not to mention that Giles has huge excess value, since he is an effective closer and paid peanuts, while Chapman is a great closer, but is paid a lot closer to his true value in his final arb years.

      3. He (Chapman) doesn’t have more value if you look beyond next season alone; which surely teams should be doing when considering trade candidates.

  26. Ok, since this is a general thread, does anyone have any suggestions for what I can do with needing a Philly sports fix. I think it was maybe this bad around 1970 for Philly franchises, although really did not follow the Flyers until around 1973.

    One of the guys from Comcast said that the Phillies have the highest winning percentage of any of the franchises this year. OMG

    I at least got relief from watching the Reading Phils this year hoping that Chipper could get things rolling, but now my only hope is another minor league season.

    HELP….can we start a top 100 now going in reverse order 😉 ???

    1. Ha! i already started a top 100 several weeks ago and it’s not as bad as you think in the back end.
      98-b. Martello
      97-j. denato
      96-v. Biter
      95- tromp
      94-t. joseph(“free fallin”)
      90-J. marchan
      here are some guys who didn’t crack top 50
      k. martin
      those r some good players so i see a good future for the phils!
      I need a life!

      1. This list is already in trouble. The Phillies don’t have 50 prospects better than Ogando, Tobias or Martello.

        1. I agree on Tobias, I don’t know much about Martello and obviously its easy to argue order (especially when you get into the 40’s) but I think it could be possible that they have 50 prospects better than Ogando?

          1. The trouble with lists as long as 100, is there are usually only about 10-15 really good prospects in any organization. Everybody else is either future relievers, Utility infielders, 5th OFs, or guys in rookie ball. After you get past the #20 player in the organization, in any given year, you can pretty much argue for anybody because they are all likely to fail.

        2. VOR If you would have had me assign a number to those guys I would have probably had them about ten spots higher. But once you start the list you realize the depth. I realize it takes a lot of things to go right for most of these to even sniff the majors up there is some talent there.
          Not sure if this next bunch is wher the disagreement will come but to show you I’m not completely crazy lol. The ones in front of those who didn’t crack the top 50 are these that didn’t crack the top 40:
          Biddle(would probably be around 25 for me w/o the surgery)

          Is Martello considered more highly than I give him credit? I’m open to change my mind

  27. anyone able to post the insider information about the 2016 top draft prospects? Just saw a blurb on with Keith Law and talking about Groome. Thought that might be worth posting if someone has ESPN insider.

    1. Keith Law and Eric Logenhagen – “The early adjectives being used by evaluators to describe the 2016 MLB draft class are “fine” and “muddled,” as the class has no clear-cut top pick — though several prospects, especially our top three arms, have a chance to ascend…

      Upper-crust arms

      Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat (New Jersey) HS
      Hulking 6-foot-6 lefties who can throw in the mid-90s don’t exactly grow on trees, and if that were all Jason Groome had going for him, it’d be enough to merit first-round consideration. But Groome also has an above-average curveball that easily projects to plus, inconsistent but present changeup feel and a delivery that affords him surprising command projection for an arm this big and young. And I do mean young; Groome doesn’t turn 18 until August 2016, making him one of the youngest players in his class. His combination of age, size, mechanical cleanliness and geographical location enables scouts and executives to dream for much more than what is already here, even though what’s already here is tantalizing.

      An early look at the top 30 prospects for the 2016 MLB draft.

      1. Jason Groome LHP High school
      2. Alec Hansen RHP Oklahoma
      3. Blake Rutherford OF High school
      4. A.J. Puk LHP Florida
      5. Corey Ray OF Louisville
      6. Connor Jones RHP Virginia
      7. Reggie Lawson RHP High school
      8. Brandon McIlwain OF High school
      9. Delvin Perez SS Puerto Rico
      10. Nick Banks OF Texas A&M
      11. Mickey Moniak OF High school
      12. Bo Bichette IF High school
      13. Cal Quantrill RHP Stanford
      14. Matt Krook LHP Oregon
      15. Riley Pint RHP High school

    1. Money in baseball is getting out of hand. You are telling me that JA Happ is worth 36m? That is insane. It’s time to go to a max salary with incentives. Here my example:

      SP Pitchers Max Salary of 15m.

      Innings Pitched
      100-150 IP 500k 151-180IP 1m 181-199IP 1.5m 200plus IP 2m

      0-1.50 ERA 5m 1.51-2.00 ERA 4.5m 2.01-2.50 ERA 4m 2.51-3.00 ERA 3m
      3.01-3.50 ERA 2.5m 3.51-4.00 ERA 1.5m 4.01-4.50 ERA 1m 4.51-5.00 ERA 750k

      5k/9-6k/9 500k 6.1k/9-7k/9 750k 7.1k/9-8k/9 1m 8.1k/9-9k/9 1.5m 9.1k/9-10k 1.75m 10.1k/9-11k/9 2m Above 11.1k/9 2.5m

      0-5 250k 6-9 500k 10-13 750k 14-16 1m 17-18 1.5m 19-20 2m 21plus 3m

      0-.90 3m .91-.99 2.5m 1.00-1.05 2m 1.06-1.10 1.5m 1.11-1.19 1m

      So let’s use Clayton Kershaw as an example. He will get the base max of 15m then add in his incentives:
      Max Base: 15m
      IP: 232.2 2m
      ERA: 2.13 4m
      K/9: 11.6 2.5m
      Wins: 16 1m
      WHIP: .881 3m
      Total Salary: 27.5m

      Obviously my incentive numbers are just random $ amounts. I’m sure there’s a better way to figure out more appropriate numbers. This would allow players to get paid who have good years even if they are new to the league. It would also stop players who don’t preform from getting over paid. For example Cliff Lee would still have collected 15m for the year (he would be a max salary SP) but nothing else because he didn’t play and have a chance to perform. Then someone like Jake Arieta who’s base was only 3.6m would actually make the type of money he deserves for the year he had. Owners would like this bc in theory if they are paying out its bc their players are playing well. The only people who wouldn’t like this are vets who are making a ton and not performing.

      1. Eric D…send your suggestion to, ……Sr VP Legal, Business and Club Affairs….MLB 245 PArk Ave, NY, NY 10167 (212)931-7900.
        Provide return contact information and he will send you a two-page form titled, ‘MLBP Submission Release’…fill it out and return.
        Then the process begins which also will eventually need to go through the union…MLBPA. Good luck.

        1. MLB will love the proposal. The union will hate it. I’m not fond of it. It penalizes players a lot for getting injured, which usually is no fault of theirs. It focuses players attention upon achieving certain stat benchmarks, which works against team play. I already don’t like contracts like Papelbon’s with options based on how many games he finishes — this makes him just want to finish games and limits the manager’s flexibility. If a position player’s salary incentives are based on things like RBIs and BA, who will ever try to advance a runner?

          Beyond that, salaries are going higher, because baseball revenue has gone higher and will continue to do so. Kershaw, especially on an ‘earn it this year to get it this year’ basis, is worth more than $27.5 mill a season. Price will get that much or more this winter and he’ll get whether or not he is healthy and whether or not he pitches to expectations. Even with these salaries, the owners are making out very, very well.

          What will change is that the MLB salary luxury tax limit will rise above $200 million.

          I don’t see anything in this proposal to interest the union. All it does is put more money into the owners pockets. It is not the union’s jobs to protect the owners from themselves. Why should Kershaw have to accept a lower guaranteed payout than the Dodgers and some other teams happily drop on Japanese and Cuban players who have never been tested in MLB games? It really isn’t fair to him, especially since the team got a huge bargain on him in his early years. Maeda is expected to cost $80 million for 5-6 years. Certainly Kershaw should expect a guarantee larger than that.

          I realize that people get jealous of some of the players’ mega-salaries, but I don’t get all the sympathy for the poor little billionaire owners. Baseball really requires only one thing to be successful, and that is its star players. That is what the fans pay to see.

          1. Allentown: Explain to me exactly why the Union wouldn’t like that . . . it would actually get more of the players paid a salary that was fair to their abilities. It would also allow younger guys to get paid as well. For example lets look at the top 5 MVP finishers in the AL and NL

            Top 5 AL:

            Donaldson: 4.3m
            Trout: 6.1m
            Cain: 2.7m
            Machado: 548k
            Keuchel: 524k

            Top 5 NL:

            Harper: 2.5m
            Goldschmidt: 3.1m
            Votto: 14m
            Rizzo: 5m
            McCutchen: 10m

            So all of these guys would have made more then they did, they would have been paid for their performance on the field and for helping their teams. Also your younger guys would also do better then the MLB minimum. When players play well the owners reap the benefits due to the product on the field is a better product. Also are you saying with my model, (Cliff Lee for example) is being penalized by making 15m? How about the fact that Lee could have prob pitched this year if he would have gotten surgery done last year, instead he made 25m without throwing a pitch.

            You could have someone like Harper sign a 10yr max deal worth 150m. If for some reason he doesn’t play well for the rest of his career then he makes a minimum of 150m and the owners save some money because they aren’t paying 30m a year to someone who didn’t live up to his contract OR he plays like he has and who knows how much he could make. It would also stop things from happening like the Howard contact, where he doesn’t live up to the end of the contract. I honestly think it’s a win win for the players and for the owners.

            As far as players only playing for stats, well in contract years you don’t see players not moving runners over and what not Hell, most of the time you see the players having some of the best years of their careers. Imagine if you could have a team where a players strives to play their best year in and year out. We all can think of examples where players get paid and then all of a sudden seem like they don’t care anymore.

            This was brought on by the JA Happ conract, not because I think 3 years 36 m is crazy in terms of money in general but it’s crazy in terms of what he brings to the table

    1. Agreed. Hard to have Cozens outside top 15. Mayo has Knapp ranked really low, especially compared to BA. I think one can argue whether Alfaro or Knapp is likeliest to be our catcher of the future, but how can Knapp be ranked outside top 5 or 6?

      1. That ranking is from the beginning of the 2015 season. MLB doesn’t really re-rank during the season. They just add and subtract the guys traded. Knapp is likely in his top 7, based on comments I’ve heard. They spoke highly of Knapp on the MLB podcasts.

        1. Cozens is an editing omission. He’s top 10 for me. He was also top 10 for me entering the season. But he was no. 17 on MLB in 2014 and I think no. 14 heading into 2015. Looking at the current MLB list, I suspect Mayo would drop Cozens at no. 12 immediately behind Pinto (11) and ahead of Lively (13).

          There’s no excuse not to have Hoskins on the post season list however, and it appears very likely that Hoskins will continue to be a highly polarizing prospect. Exactly what pundits intend to do with him when he puts up a monster in Reading next season is beyond me

          1. Steve……agree has to be an oversight or inadvertent omission, but Jon Mayo normally plugs guys in or out or cuts and paste, on all the buyer or seller teams, mostly after the July trade deadline around the first week of August.

      2. @Allentown…glad to see Dylan Cozens is back on the field and playing in the Puerto Rico Winter League. Hopefully he can get 100/125 PAs before their season wraps up. The last games should be 30 Dec15, Then a round robin series starts 2 Jan16 and ends by 22 Jan6, at which time, then playoffs, they run and finish approx by the end of Jan16. Not sure he will stay thru all the tournament play.

          1. Agreed!!! He’s going to steamroll through the Eastern League. The International League and the National League will be much tougher challenges.

  28. Something tells me Riley Pint goes higher than 15 in the Draft. I know the history, a poor one, of SPs from HS going 1.1, but if Groome has a season close to his hype, then I take him.

    1. How about Robert Tyler (U of Ga) not making Keith Law’s top 30 plus 10 ? If he makes it to the Phillies at the top of the second round, that would give them two front line pitching prospects in this draft.

  29. From reading the BA article, it seems as if Baccerra might be a Jorge Bell type of prospect. Why not? Next year is for finding out, anyway.

  30. I’m in favor of making 2 selections, like last year. Over the years, the Phillies have had more success than most (Victorino, Dave Hollins readily come to mind). Their biggest loss in the Rule 5 was Jorge Bell.

    1. Rule 4 and Rule 5 drafts appear to be two different animals.
      Rule 4 have little metric sortable data to rely on in deciding which player to select, most often advanced scouting and numerous cross-checking,while Rule 5 candidates have more then enough MiLB stats to make decisions upon.
      However, over the last thirty years, Rule 4, 1.1 selections, for the most part have plus-plus WAR careers on a whole , while Rule 5, 1.1, rarely even make it as a replacement player in the majors. And the best Rule 5 players are taken after the first pick.
      Cannot understand why that is.
      Not sure if teams pick more for need in the Rule 5 then BPA or vice versa.

      1. Yaisel Sierra, 24 YO Cuban.. Mid 90’s FB.. Garnishing interest. Could be expensive (25-30M). Not subject to July 2 signing restrictions. He has been auditioning for numerous clubs. Worth the risk?

      2. Rule 4 H.S. doesn’t have much sortable data. I’d argue that Rule 5 college, especially major college programs, is amenable to stat metrics as well as eyeball scouting. There’s also a lot of eyeball scouting involved in Rule 5 draft. There is a ton of projection needed to pick one of these guys. Herrera hadn’t played CF in the states when we drafted him and his bat had to be projected up two levels from 368 AA AB, although the track record on the bat was huge, compared to the hints of his CF ability. But, how much do stats help in drafting Tocci or Tirado?

        1. Rule 4 HS…Rule 5 college??????
          I would think a Rule 5 candidate with prior-college experience as a draftee, already has 3 seasons of minor leagues on his resume,,,,,,the college stats are irrelevant at that point.
          I some what agree on the ‘eyeballing’…but that is at both drafts ..4 and 5.
          As for defense….I think that is the last parameter measured on a positional player In the Rule 5. If he cannot hit….he doesn’t get drafted. OH hit at all levels…his 2nd base defense was marginal, so the OF would seem to be a logical transition, and thru history the best OFers started in the infield and progressed to the OF.

          1. Yes, there are a lot of college and minor league stats on a Rule 5 draftee, who was a college draftee. Stat analysis should work great. But a lot of these Rule 5 guys aren’t collegians. They’re H.S. and Latin American kids who moved through the farm slowly and haven’t yet reached AA There is a lot of scouting projection remaining in the determination of whether our Tirado or some of the other teams’ A-ball level, flame-throwing, wild child pitchers are worth the cost of carrying them for a season. So many Aumonts just never develop. So many Tocci’s never add the minimum amount of strength/power to complete the package. It is a guessing game and stat analysis doesn’t necessarily answer the big questions. Scouting input is important here. I’m not saying a lot of H.S. and Latin American talent can’t be judged at this level of experience, but these are the guys who are right on the line for one reason or another. You aren’t asking the question ‘can they contribute on a major league roster in 2016?’ because the answer is clearly no. You’re asking if there will be enough there is 2018, after holding them on your MLB roster in 2016 and then trying to complete their development in winter ball and 2017 in the minors, to make the effort and wasted 2016 MLB roster spot worth it. For most of these guys the answer will still be no, and finding the ones for which the answer is yes is quite tricky and I don’t think you’ll work it out solely through stat analysis.

            1. I think we are more or less, saying something similar.
              And I also agree with that summation that 2016 is not the year for production from the pick this year…on this rebuild Phillies team, it is the out years post-2016. Though, Herrera somewhat broke that mold last season.
              My biggest concern is the over 95% failure rate of Rule 5 1.1s over the last 30/40 years. I cannot fathom that, while any pick 2 thru. normally 17/18. have had more of a success rate. It is an odd stat that MacPhail and Klentak will need to overcome.

  31. I am wondering is zimmeran a 22 million dollar pitcher?? 5 years 110 . maybe its me but I wouldn’t pay him that. I rather pay 30 million a year for price than 22 for Zimmerman. but I will ask my friend romus.

    1. Paying for age 30-34 seasons for a guy who has been healthy the last 4 years @ 200 IP and 32 starts. Considering that the three-year older Happ got $36 million for 3 seasons, this contract seems fair and to be the going rate. Price likely doesn get $30 mill for 5 or even 6 years. I think Zimmerman is the better deal. The price of pitching, and players in general, is going up on the FA market. Zimmerman had a bit of an off year in 2015, with his HR rate rising, but over the past 4 years isn’t all that far behind Price.

      1. I agree. The biggest bargains on annual salary are #1s, but true #2’s are worth every bit of 20m per these days. It’s the #3 and #4 pitchers like Happ, that ruin teams’ budgets. We saw it with Cole Hamels. Top of the rotation pitchers can be moved no matter what they make, because there are so few. Zimmerman would have to get injured (or fall completely off the map) to not be worth 20 per year.

  32. Your think Zimmerman at 20 is better than price at 30. I am amazed. but if I said this is red you would say its blue. how anyone say paying a guy whos number are down. On a pretty good team.20 million is a good deal. cause some nutty team overpaid for happ is amazing to me.

    1. I can see that. He looks like a player that should have been protected. He seems to have enough skills to get carried as a 5th OF. The Phillies have more than enough room. They only have 2 OFs on the 25 man roster.

  33. Trust me, Groome is not hype, his talent is VERY VERY REAL. For the local guys, go watch him this year and you’ll see. He will be an ace at the MLB level, he is THAT good and has THAT kinda stuff right now.

    1. I think it’s clear that the talent is real and fairly awesome. The questions are: how far from the majors, can he stay healthy during that time, will he continue to develop as expected, and is the upside enough higher than for Puk/Hanson to justify the wait and the risk of added development time. Of course there’s also the question which doesn’t bother us all that much as fans: how much $$$ does he demand? We’d like our 1.1 to sign for less than slot, so we can land a second big fish in round 2.

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