Post Season Report Card–Starting Pitching, GCL, WP, and Lakewood

A look at starting pitching in the lower part of the organization.  A note that player grades are based on what was expected of that players performance against himself, not against others.  Up next will be a look at Starting pitching at the higher levels on Wednesday.

GCL

Felix Paulino, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 11 games (10 starts); 5-4 with a 2.34ERA; 50IP 41H 5BB 46K; .223 opp avg; 0.92 WHIP; 1.06 GO/AO; 0.9BB/8.3K per 9; .176 vs LHH; .244 vs RHH; .224 last 30 days.  Paulino had an outstanding season with his walk/strikeout ratio in an area that screams long term success.  Grade: A; 2016: Lakewood with a potential drop back to Williamsport

Adonis Medina, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 10 games (8 starts); 3-2 with a 2.98ERA; 45.1IP 42H 12BB 35K; 1HR allowed; .253 opp avg; 1.19 WHIP; 1.76 GO/AO; 2.4BB/6.9K per 9; .222 vs LHH, .272 vs RHH, .284 last 30 days. A good season for Medina in his first action stateside.  Good command.  Grade: B+; 2016: Williamsport

Sam McWilliams, 19, Phils 8th round pick in 2014; 7 starts, 0-2 with a 3.27ERA; 33IP 29H 5BB 21K; 1.4BB/5.7K per 9; .232 opp avg; 1.03 WHIP; 1.92 GO/AO; .245 vs LHH, .222 vs RHH. McWilliams was pitching well but missed his last 4 or 5 starts at the end of the season, costing him what may have been a trip to Lakewood to start 2016.  With 25IP in 2014 for GCL and 33IP this year, he will need some time in WIlliamsport.  Grade: B-

Bailey Falter, 18, Phils 5th round pick in 2015; 8 games (7 starts); 1-2 with a 3.45ERA; 28.2IP 28H 3BB 25K; .259 opp avg; 1.08 WHIP; 0.97 GO/AO; 0.9BB/7.8K per 9; .238 vs LHH, .264 vs RHH; Falter’s debut was a successful one, showing good control and consistently getting hitters out.  Grade: B; 2016: Williamsport

Carlos Indraigo, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2012; 12 games (5 starts); 3-2 with a 2.20ERA; 41IP 36H 8BB 27K; .237 opp avg; 1.07 WHIP; 1.43 GO/AO; 1.8BB/5.9K per 9; .229 vs LHH, .244 vs RHH.  Another GCL pitcher who threw very well, with excellent command and good potential.  Grade: B+; 2016: Lakewood

Ranger Suarez, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2011; 6 games (4 starts); 3-0 with an 0.65ERA; 27.2IP 15H 4BB 20K; .158 opp avg; 0.69 WHIP; 1.3BB/6.5K per 9. I admittedly do not know why Suarez missed the last 6 weeks of the season (assuming injury) but prior to that he was lights out.

Williamsport

Alejandro Arteaga, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 14 starts; 4-3 with a 3.11ERA; 72.1IP 69H 21BB 51K; 1.24 WHIP; .258 opp avg; 0.88 GO/AO; 2.6BB/6.3K per 9; .282 vs LHH, .235 vs RHH, .288 last 30 days; Arteaga pitched fairly well as is ready to take another run at Lakewood after getting crushed there early in 2014.  Grade: B; 2016: Lakewood

Mitch Guellar, 21, Phils Compensation Round Pick in 2012; 12 starts, 10-1 with a 2.23ERA; 68.2IP 57H 23BB 44K; .229 opp avg; 1.17 WHIP; 1.40 GO/AO; 3.0BB/5.8K per 9; .183 vs LHH, .271 vs RHH, .289 with RISP; Hard to complain about the numbers Guellar put up this year, however it was his third year playing for Williamsport.  His “stuff” remains far from overpowering, but he learned to be effective at this level.  Grade: A-; 2016: Lakewood but could move quickly if he shows he can be effective

Jose Taveras, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2013; 12 starts, 7-3 with a 3.65ERA; 56.2IP 55H 20BB 51K; 2HR allowed; .264 opp avg; 1.32 WHIP; 0.70 GO/AO; 3.2BB/8.1K per 9; .324 vs LHH, .233 vs RHH, .283 last 30 days; Taveras did a nice job transitioning over from the DSL where he had a lot of success last year.  Clearly needs work against left handed hitters but he has very good stuff and solid control.  Grade: B; 2016: Lakewood

Franklyn Kilome, 20, SIgned as a free agent in 2013; 11 starts; 3-2 with a 3.28ERA; 49.1IP 41H 23BB 36K; .230 opp avg; 1.26 WHIP; 1.43 GO/AO; 4.0BB/6.6k per 9; .247 vs LHH, .212 vs RHH, .268 last 30 days; Kilome never pitched more than 6 innings in a start this year and 5 of his last 8 starts were five innings or less as he battled injuries.  WHen healthy he has top of the rotation potential but he wasn’t healthy enough this season for marked progress.  Grade: C; 2016: Williamsport

Tyler Gilbert, 21, Phils 6th round pick in 2015; 10 games (8 starts); 4-3 with a 2.79ERA; 42IP 42H 6BB 44K; .251 opp avg; 1.14 WHIP; 1.24 GO/AO; 1.3BB/9.4K per 9; .288 vs LHP; .231 vs RHP; .286 last 30 days; As a high draft pick from a major college program, Gilbert should dominate the NYPL.  At times he did, with excellent control and a nice K rate.  Grade: B; 2016: Clearwater

Luke Leftwich, 21, Phils 7th round pick in 2015; 11 games (9 starts); 2-2 with a 2.76ERA; 45.2IP 52H 13BB 34K; .289 opp avg; 1.42 WHIP; 1.00 GO/AO; 2.6BB/6.7K per 9; .296 vs LHP; .280 vs RHP; .313 last 30 days; Leftwich showed real promise at times but seemed tired other times.  Grade: C+; 2016: Lakewood

Lakewood

Ranfi Casimiro, 23, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 23 starts, 9-7 with a 3.35ERA; 137IP 127H 30BB 91K; .244 opp avg; 1.15 WHIP; 0.96 GO/AO; 2.0BB/6.0K per 9; .262 vs LHH, .232 vs RHH, .246 last 30 days; It was a critical year for Casimiro after a disappointing 2014 and he showed marked progress this season, his second full season in Lakewood.  Now with 48 starts for Lakewood over two seasons, he will be moving on to Clearwater.  Grade: B+

Austin Davis, 22, Phils 12th round pick in 2014; 33 games (11 starts); 5-6 with a 3.76ERA; 95.2IP 79H 44BB 81K; 7HR allowed; .224 opp avg; 1.29 WHIP; 1.05 GO/AO; 4.1BB/7.6K per9; .217 vs LHH, .226 vs RHH, .264 last 30 days; 4.55ERA; 1.27 WHIP as a starter.  Davis generally pitched well but with some control issues that prevented greater success.  Grade: B-; 2016: Clearwater bullpen

Eineiry Garcia, 20, SIgned as a free agent in 2011; 21 starts, 8-9 with a 3.23ERA; 120IP 125H 36BB 66K; .275 opp avg; 1.34 WHIP; 1.39 GO/AO; 2.7BB/5.0K per 9; .239 vs LHH, .288 vs RHH, .226 last 30 days; Good progress for Garcia after limited innings between GCL and Williamsport last season.  Grade: B; 2016: A bit more time in Lakewood before a CW call up

Will Morris, 22, Phils 24th round pick in 2014; 21 games (9 starts) between WP, LK, CW and REA; 7-0 with a 1.64 ERA; For Lakewood: 14 games (9 starts), 7-0 with a 1.64ERA; 71.1IP 58H 13BB 32K; .228 opp avg; 1.00 WHIP; 1.46 GO/AO; 1.6BB/4.0K per 9; .216 vs LHH, .238 vs RHH, .210 last 30 days.  Morris’s game is “command” and he did that real well dominating the South Atlantic League during his time there.  Grade: A; 2016: CLearwater

Tyler Viza, 20, Phils 32nd round pick in 2013; 23 games (22 starts); 5-10 with a 3.38ERA; 143.2IP 129H 31BB 104K; .240 opp avg; 1.11WHIP; 1.28 GO/AO; 1.9BB/6.5K per 9; .253 vs LHP; .231 vs RHP; .222 last 30 days; Admittedly, I questioned the Phillies philosophy as they ran Viza out there 24 times in 2014, during which he lost 17 games and has an era well over 5 as a 19 year old.  Well, Viza responded this season with a year filled with real promise.  Consistently eating innings and getting hitters out all year with good command, he is now right on schedule to move along to Clearwater in 2016.  Grade: B+

Shane Watson, 22, Phils Comp Round pick in 2012; 11 games; 1-5 with a 4.53ERA; 47.2IP 58H 25BB 34K; 4.7BB/6.4K per 9; .307 opp avg; 1.74 WHIP; 1.44 GO/AO; .358 vs LHH, .250 vs RHH, .263 last 30 days; Grade: D; I would be a bit surprised to see Watson back.  He has not shown any consistent ability to get hitters out through parts of four seasons in the organization but has shown he is oft injured and has been suspended for use of “drug of abuse”.

 

21 thoughts on “Post Season Report Card–Starting Pitching, GCL, WP, and Lakewood

  1. A 21 year old pitcher, with a K9 of 5.8, that took 4 seasons to master short season ball, gets an A- grade?

    1. If you read the 2nd sentence is Gregg’s write-up, “A note that player grades are based on what was expected of that players performance against himself, not against others.”, that explains how the grades were assigned. So a guy like Kilome, where much is expected of him and it didn’t happen, gets much lower grade than many others who had similar stats. If nothing was expected and the guy gets outs then he could get an A or A-. Simple as that, matching results to expectations.

  2. What IS impressive is the control/command displayed by most of these eager young pitchers. Plenty of Ks/innings and low BBs is the starting premise for effective pitching. Now in the ’16 draft let’s get TWO pitchers who could fill the role of a #1 on the staff. And within those first two picks (according to my plan) we should grab a lefty (as has been mentioned here) since almost all of those who stand out are righties.

    The following consideration of the upper level pitching should bring more pleasure/reassurance to us beginning with the excellent numbers put up by Thompson who ETA should be sometime in ’16.

    1. Yeah, let’s see how they do at lower levels. I like to see good control, but what I really care most about with young pitchers is the pure stuff. Otherwise, you end up with a bunch of Severino Gonzalezes and David Buchanans – good luck with that.

  3. Tyler Gilberts control numbers are outstanding, if he can add just a tick or two to his velocity he could move swiftly

  4. Disagree about Watson simply because he came back and pitched. Similar to Adam Morgan, that in itself is a success. I asked Matt about a month ago if he saw or heard anything about him and he said his fastball still sat low-90s with a good curve at times, but the delivery looked rough.

    I would be surprised if he’s not back unless they have serious character concerns about him.

    1. Watson was invited to Instructs, he’ll be back. First round picks tend to hang around, especially coming back from multiple surgeries.

      1. I don’t understand how that is even a question. He doesn’t even have to be protected yet. There are 10 or more pitchers in the low minors, that hold less value than Watson. Why would Watson be the one to get let go.

    2. He’ll be back for sure, however if he doesn’t show progress I wouldn’t be surprised if 2016 is his last in the organization.

  5. I didn’t know Watson got suspended for PED use. Wow. So not only has he sucked since getting injured, he’s a cheater as well. Hard to root for him now, honestly.

    I really look forward to reading your writeup tomorrow. It’s been a long time since the majority of the talent we’ve had was in the higher levels and not the lower ones. When was the last time we had pitching prospect depth like this?

    1. His 50 game PED suspension coincided with his first shoulder surgery rehab….so it was meshed in that time period.

      1. Doesn’t really matter one-way or the other,…he was suspended 50 games after testing positive for a banned substance.

      2. That’s different then. It might be stupid but it’s at least not cheating. Didn’t want to not root for the kid. He’s got good stuff if like Biddle he can stay healthy and figure things out mentally. Not top of the rotation stuff but that’s very rare. Maybe he becomes a future fourth or fifth starter.

        1. He tested ‘second’ positive for the banned substance…..similar to Jon Singleton…..after the first positive testing he should have come around.

  6. Didn’t notice before, but since Aaron Nola recently “graduated” from the MLB top 30 list by pitching 50 innings, Sam McWilliams was added to top 30. He isn’t striking out anybody, but his profile reads similar to Franklyn Kilome’s.

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