278 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of July 27th”

1. I like what you did there with the struggling Phillies.

   Was Sandberg this bad of a manager?

   3 teams interested in Chase as a bench bat. Sorry Chase but Cesar won the starting job for the rest of the year. You might get some starts to showcase yourself but that option is not getting picked up. Sorry Tim.

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   1. There certainly is no room for complacency but the Phils are on pace for a 102 loss season and most seasons do not produce as many as 2 100 loss teams, So as they like to say, the outcome is largely within their own hands (and they should not get involved in scoreboard watching).

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   2. First off: Whoa, what’s with the different header/banner?

      Sandberg…idk. He didn’t have much to work with, we all know that, but his bullpen management was an utter disaster, and there were a bunch of incidents – Giles, Franco, Francoeur being left out there to keep pitching. It was clear that the players didn’t respect him, nor did he stick up for the players.

      Compared to what’s happened since the ASB, it’s a whole different team. They’ve been winning, scoring runs, etc. I don’t know if it’s because of Mackanin, certain players not being there, or something else entirely, but it has been damn fun to watch. They’ll come back to earth, I know, but it’s been a VERY bright spot in an otherwise ABYSMAL season.

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   3. Let’s not forget that they won 7 of 8 under Sandberg in May. It’s a loooong season, and stretches like this happen.

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   4. Where did he win it Cesar hit chart looks like a T ball player’s . Since 7/6 he hit 9 balls out of the infield . His batting avg dropped 30 points his has no power , his ground ball rate is 50% . This is who he is a weak hitting 2 nd tier 2nd baseman. During the 8 and 1 games he hit under 200 .he also was picked off 2nd base and has trouble getting the ball out of his glove . yes he walks and bunt ‘s and runs hard . His avg is likely to drop more . Amaro was asked if Cesar is the leadoff hitter of the future on a 610 interview Amaro said ” Cesar is doing what we’re asking our young players to do. Then he was Asked if Ultey is done, and will he play ? Amaro said in No way is Chase done he has a lot of play in him left. Amaro also said he’ll get a lot of playing time. Amaro didn’t back Hernandez as did a month ago . You can get the interview on the 610 site. I don’t listen to 610 I listen to the sound bites per what a friend sent me. Now that Cesar settled down the last month most other baseball sites are now critical of his play. Everything depends on Ultey coming back and hitting the way he can. If Ultey comes out hitting the no way he’s going to take a bench role somewhere else. We can agree Cesar is not the future 2nd baseman . Right now if Ultey comes back hitting it will make things interesting. Once scout said Herandez is still on the team because Ultey was hurt and the Phillies 2nd base depth at AA and AAA was Valentin. Once Valentin was not coming back this yr that left a huge void that was address in the draft. Franco and Nola are the only 2 players that are untouchable . Everyone else including Ceasr are trade options. Matt Stairs said the coach was looking forward to get Ultey back. As my friends little
      boy said last night who’s ” Cesar Herandez Dad ” ? Ahhhh new bat boy I think.

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2. Bob Brookover makes one of the most compelling arguments in getting a very steep return in a Cole Hamels exchange:
   http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20150727_The_price_to_acquire_Cole_Hamels_from_the_Phillies_should_be_steep.html

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3. definitely wouldn’t trade for someone who isn’t MLB ready (or almost) and a top 10 prospect
   remember Mike Olt who everybody wanted a few years ago. He never panned out and was untouchable.

   or look at our former prospects- Michael Taylor? Drabek? Cosart?

   Dealing Hamels is a risky proposition. Unless the return is compelling, trading him for a lottery ticket is a huge risk.

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   1. You forgot to list the future HOF, Jon Singleton…

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   2. Exactly. I remember people wanting a Cliff Lee trade built around Olt and maybe a throw in. That career OPS+ of 60 and 37.9% K rate really is appealing….

      Sorry unless Gillick or MacPhail have 100% signoff on a trade I don’t want RAJ putting together a Hamels deal. FYI, Tyson Gillies is OPS’ing @ .583 this year. In AA. As a 26 year old. So no, he doesn’t get to deal Hamels.

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4. im thinking Amaro won’t make any trades and justify by saying he didnt want to break up the hottest team in baseball.
   but in reality, just a perfect storm for trade value this weekend- Hamels no hitter- Cubs closer blows Friday game and Papelbon looks like a fit there- Francoeur with a walkoff (somebody like Angels could use him), Howard even shows some life, and Ruiz catches another no-hitter reminding teams of his value behind the plate. would be nice to see it translate into some positive deals.

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   1. Raef On the subject of ruiz. I would love to see him catch nola. I don’t think rupp calls a good game. I thought too many first pitch fastballs by nola. but could be wrong.

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      1. I have a feeling Kratz was brought on board in the event that Ruiz is traded. Otherwise, what’s the point of bringing in a 35 year old depth piece with a little over two months left in the season?

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   2. I’m surprised nobody in the AL would want Howard as a DH/bat on the bench for the playoffs. Seems like a good guy to have. Phils likely would kick in a lot of $.

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      1. Maybe if he gets cut. Maybe if they pay all but $5 million a year and pay the buyout option. As a first baseman, he’s less than replacement value. As a DH he’s minimally above replacement value. He doesn’t just cost them money, he costs them games.

         I could see an AL team willing to fork out $5 million for next year and prorated $5 million for this year if they don’t take on the option price. The Phillies would get nothing in return or a token prospect, but no real value.

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         1. angels always seemed like one possibility, as they have a young dh who only hits against lefties, and nothing behind Pujols in lineup- but if paying almost all salary and not getting anything back, not sure there is a point.

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5. Let the teams talk. The biggest factor to me is this. We don’t have to moves coles contract. That is advantage. I know there is a argument that he could get hurt if he does so what. The kind of players that are being offered aren’t major talents. so how do they help us? The reason to move revere is he is arb eligible and Is going to get 7 million. which some feel is a lot. but if we had a couple of power bats in the outfield like a upton. and some else his contract wouldn’t be a problem, because of his lack of power, most feel he isn’t worth the money, I am on the fence. I really don’t know. Pap Is the one to go because we need to see giles as a closer. I believe a lot of teams will want to keep there prospect and go cheaper, and lose. some teams just over value prospect. How much better would tiger have been a couple of years ago with pap as there closer. they wouldn’t give up there prospect and one of them who is a 245 hitting third basemen. so far. so a shot at a world series wasn’t worth that kid castellano. there lost The bottom line is do you take sure thing that is more expensive or try to win with cheaper and hope your are right on the prospect. and two di you get more chances in the future.? that is a gm job

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   1. rocco….I can see the other side more with prospects and their failure rate….I look at Soler and Puig….two big Cuban young OFers who seem disinterested after watching Soler vs Phillies and Puig vs Mets this weekend. You would think they would be busting it….but they got a boat load of $$$$ at a very early age and this year they have relaxed a bit. However they have lots of time to redeem themselves.
      As for Upton……no thank you…at $1250M plus for 6/7 years.

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      1. Disinterested players do not break bats over their legs after being struck out for the third time in a game. Soler did not have a good series, but I did not see a lazy player out there.

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         1. He seem to nonchalantly chase after balls in the gap and in the corner.
            And with Fowler, seem to make CF and RF an adventure the whole weekend.
            Perhaps, as Stairs said, playing so shallow was not to their advantage.

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            1. Soler Noway he looked bad .

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         2. Breaking bats is an old trick that Bo knows.
            A little showmanship it would appear, with a disgust of embarrassment
            Have not seen or heard anyone breaking a bat over their legs in the locker room.
            Does not prove determination and motivation….more anger.

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6. Romus my point was if we had two power hitters in the outfield. Revere with his 300 average and speed. would be a nice fit for this team. I Wouldn’t want upton,

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   1. Yes….but unless the Phillies can get a Judge or a Seager and convert him into a corner OFer they are tough to come by. And there are no guarantees as prospects go.
      Stanton’s do not grow on trees.

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   2. If we had two power hitters in the OF, the other OF would be Quinn and we would have no use for either Upton or Revere. Revere is rapidly becoming more costly than he is worth and is a FA after next season. He is not a guy I would give a significant contract to. He doesn’t have power, barely walks, and can’t play CF. He has just about the emptiest good BA in baseball. He’s fine now, but when he gets better and we have better alternatives he is no better than a 4th OF and a very expensive 4th OF.

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      1. Quinn isn’t revere yet and he is always hurt. So for now you cant put a mystery guy in center. Allentown what is his obp? has it improved? he is better than I thought. but what do I know.

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         1. IMO, Herrera seems just fine in CF for the future…. 23-years old, .21 doubles already in 302 PAs with 3 triples and more pop then Ben Revere.

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            1. He needs to drastically improve his approach at the plate for him to be the future. 3.4% bb rate 24.5% k rate for non power hitter.

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               1. That’s true….but for a guy who hasn’t hit above AA level and come in as a rookie and do what he is doing is remarkable. And playing CF for the first time.
                  With experience, he will eventually get close abd come down to his minor league K rate of 17% and up to close of a BB rate of 8% and last two years of an OPS of .770.

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7. I been looking for a guy to play outfield who might not cost a lot in offseason. How do you feel about parra from milaukee? Has some power. plays center, and hits for average. he is making 6 million I believe this year. maybe a 9 million a year for 4 yrs might get him. only 28

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   1. From a Hamels deal we need at least one player that will be part of the next core of a championship level team. They also need to trade anyone of value nearing 30 yrs old that can get them a piece. Revere has shown that his only chance to play on a great team is in LF with a great CF next to him. He’d look good on the Os or a team like that. Chooch can definitely help a team get to the playoffs and beyond. Howard is getting hot and could be helpful to someone but I don’t see him getting traded this week. Maybe in August. Same with Chase. Pap is expensive and a jerk, a tough combination. I predict Hamels goes to the Dodgers but Texas might be a better deal for us.

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      1. Expensive. And a jerk. And he can block a trade to 17 teams. And he’s not interested in working as a setup man. Good luck getting value for him.

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   2. Another lefty hitter…..the lineup needs another power bat from the right side…cannot be just Franco for the next decade.

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   3. not sure he fits what we’re doing-he’s probably having his best offensive season but not much pop- a 4th outfielder on a good team or a starter on a bad one.

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8. Rangers seem to be the deepest farm system with Jorge Alfaro and nomar mazaro as the biggest trade chips and a couple good middle infield prospects… Could get a 2b and an outfielder, starting outfield in 2017 , altherr , mazaro , tocci or Quinn….. with Hoskins, JPC and Franco in infield

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   1. Also rangers have Lewis Brinson and Nick Williams.

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   2. Give me Mazara and Alfaro, plus Jurickson Profar (remember him?) as the lottery ticket. Done.

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      1. I’ve thought this about Profar as well. I doubt the Rangers want to sell low on him, however, unless that shoulder is a degenerative condition, in which case … thanks but no thanks.

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      2. wow, I completely forgot about Profar. They’d have to sell low on him but Odor took over second and Andrus is locked up long term. That’d be fascinating. However, because Profar has been hurt a ton, I’d probably also ask for a high risk/high reward low A or lower pitcher. Currently, 2 of the 3 players in the deal are hurt. (unless Alfaro is back)

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   3. From the Rangers, give me Mazara, Williams or Thompson, and another low-level piece and I’m happy.

      If the Dodgers are willing to part with Urias, I’ll buy Cole’s plane ticket. Other than him and Seager (who isn’t going anywhere), I’m not impressed by what they have to offer. De Leon turns 23 next month and doesn’t have a prolonged track record that makes me comfortable with him as a headline piece.

      If I’m (insert name of whoever is making trade calls and decisions for the Phils at this point), I’m pushing the Cubs hard on Schwarber and the BoSox on Margot/Devers. But I agree with the national pundits that the Rangers are the most likely match at this point.

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   4. Rangers have to give us Williams if I am the gm plus nomar and good pitching prospect.

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9. I am surprised there isn’t any interest in Ryan Howard out there. At $25 million/year he is a disaster, but at $7.5 million/year he would not be a bad DH option. I would think the Phillies would pay at least $18-$20 million/year. Understand, I do not expect any prospects of note in return. This would purely be a play to save as much money as possible. Anyway, Howard seems to be a relatively low price/risk option for someone looking for a power bat.

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   1. The Phillies aren’t hurting for money – simply dumping a bit of Howard’s salary doesn’t accomplish much unless they are planning on a spree of free-agent signings.

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10. prediction- no trade now- Cole will be traded in GM meetings. Assume McPhail has specific parameters and trading will be easier when his guys are In charge

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11. Can someone remind me again, what’s the number of plate appearances until BB% stabilizes?

    I ask because Franco is up to 268 PA’s and has a walk rate of 7%, I guess players do get better at pitch recognition.

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    1. 120 PA, per Fangraphs.

       http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

       I think Franco’s going to settle in at that 6-8 percent range. He loves to swing but is showing a good eye at the plate and getting into favorable counts.

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       1. That’s pretty awesome, between 6-8 will ensure his plus hit tool shows in the numbers. Franco to me is going to be a first team regular going forward at the position with the possibility of a few all-star selections. Obviously things can still go wrong, but the first nearly half a year in the majors has been very encouraging.

          Our first “piece” to the next playoff run.

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12. I do not understand the “wait until Winter” notion. There are too many free agent SPs out there. And, I know that Cole’s contract will look good compared to them, but Cole will still require a major prospect trade, and teams may just decide to pay the $ and save their prospects. I think his value is not going to go up from where it is now, and either Dodgers or Texas step up this week. Also, how can Howard not be a decent DH if Phils eat enough $? I think he adds to some teams, like the Angels, and what was a seemingly impossible trade, now may have some life.?

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    1. think it would mainly be due to transition going on in front office.

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    2. That average and OPS. Howard is one trick, power.

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13. While the farm system has definitely shown improvement and promise over a year ago, one standout issue is the lack of power. Other than Franco, I don’t see any young players on the big club or on the horizon in the minors that can potentially achieve more than 12-15 homers/70 RBI a year. This is a serious issue that would seem to be rectified only by getting a stud for Hamels and future draft picks concentrating on power bats.

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    1. Agree, they definitely could use some in the upper levels. So you think guys like Hoskins, Ortiz, and Encarnacion only have 12-15 homer ability over 400+ at bats in the MLB?

       I have to look back but how many seasons has Franco had more than 20 homers?

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       1. Ok Franco had a nice 2013 power surge with 34HR /700 Ab’s.

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       2. RemH – looking at the three you mention, I had overlooked Hoskin’s power potential – he could be a 25-30/100 guy. Ortiz certainly has the potential to have Howard-type production but is at least five years away. Encarnacion – early to gauge power potential but questionable and 4-5 years away.

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       3. Try not to project at future HR power at minor league stats….Mike Trout had a HR every 55plus PAs.

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    2. Cozens is three years or less away.

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       1. He’s a big guy and shows potential…hopefully we’ll see better power numbers than so far at Reading.

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          1. Oops, I mean Clearwater.

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             1. Cozens played last year in LKW and then ABL for the winter. He hit a combined 23 HRs…..leading Phillies org LH batters in HRs for the combined season.
                This season the injury set him back at CLW.

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    3. Pujols ceilings out at 25-30, no? Of course this depends on his hit tool catching up to his power.

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14. Interesting week;

    1) Phillies having funs again / winning
    2) Hamels shakes off the bad spell to throw a no-hitter
    3) The bats are breaking out, including Dom Brown

    Go figure

    Being 55 and having watched the Phils through some worse times (prior to Carlton and Company), I guess I’m divided. I know maybe someone here will jump on me for my comment on Hamels being a streaky 1…somebody even took that out of context and claimed I was saying he was not a 1, but in reality Hamels represents the best run the phils have had in a 5 year period, high lighted by his dominant performance in the 2008 playoffs/ winning the WS.

    I get it that this is about prospects, but for this thread and the record, I hate to see him go. He still has at least 2-3 more good years (assuming no break downs) and it would be nice to see him be part of the rebuilding phils…kind of like Carlton. I know the Phils maynot snif the playoffs over the next couple years, but just speaking emotionally here.

    However, if they can get a sure fired prospect or two…or maybe a young MLB player / future star, then I will live with the disappointment of watching him in another uniform.

    With that said, as you know, there is always a huge risk with prospects and giving up an ace for 2-3 prospects is risky. Its still just a game, and its so much more fun watching great players!

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    1. I agree with your sentiment 100%,

       Having Hamels around for 2-3 more years to produce and help guide these prospects to become great professionals like Halladay and Lee did is valuable.

       Remember in 08 we rode the bats for the most part to the WS. Hamels was great in the post season, but he was consider an injury prone risk at that point. Imagine going into this rebuild with the “Lee or Halladay pitcher” on the roster.

       might be worth considering unless they are blown away

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15. Ill admit Im torn about a Hamels deal…although I am in favor of a deal the prospects received will block some of the Phillies prospects that Ive veen rooting for.

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16. One of my pet peeves is how little attention is paid to ballpark effects when the media evaluates pitchers. It’s a pet peeve because the media consistently underrates Hamels, generally ignoring the fact that he pitches half his games at the Bank.

    ERA+ accounts for park effects, of course, and Hamels has fared very well over his career against his peers in terms of ERA+. The last time I checked only Kershaw, Felix, and Waiinwright ranked better among veteran pitchers. Yet, the media rarely acknowledges this fact.

    Bumgarner is a very good pitcher, but he happens to make half his starts in baseball’s most pitcher-friendly park. If Hamels had been pitching for the Giants the last few years, I believe his raw numbers would have been much better.

    For Hamels’ sake, I hope he is traded to the Dodgers with its pitcher-friendly environment. My first choice actually would be the Giants, but they lack the wherewithal to make a Hamels’ deal.

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    1. Agree……and lets not forget run-support or lack of it for Cole Hamels.
       With 2.72 runs of support per start, Cole Hamels ranks as the 5th worst among qualified starting pitchers in all of baseball. Only 4 pitchers receive less run support per start, including Phillies start Aaron Harang

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17. If Hamels goes to the Dodgers….him and jRoll will be in Dodger blue on Tuesday next week in their return to Philly.
    Would be truly weird to see Cole pitching against the Phillies

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    1. Agreed. One way or another there is a high probability that Utley is done playing for the Phils in the next year (or sooner). If I remember correctly I think he grew up a dodger fan (or in the area)? That would be freaky weird if he and Jimmy were reunited out there…and Hamels….I said a couple times in the past year but weeze kids west.

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    2. I am going to the game We’d and if he pitches Fri for Dodgers We’d would be his next start. That would be crazy

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18. Every time Paps opens his mouth another team or two says, NO WAY! If he’d shut his mouth, he’d be pitching for a team fighting for a playoff team. Pitchers have to work hard to hit Howard’s bat. He gets no respect anymore and that makes it hard to cover up the holes in his swing. Only a cocky pitcher who thinks they can throw a pitch on the inner half of the plate gets smacked around. Trading Hamels has to be a win – win proposition. Anyone getting Hamels knows they get a winner. The Phils side of the discussion is harder to gauge. Two top prospects would be great but prospects are just that… prospective. Maybe you get 2 AAAA players instead of top prospects.

    There’s a chance that none of these guys are going anywhere. Some are the player’s own fault and others are because the package isn’t good enough.

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19. Zach Lee got lit up in his 1st outing, and I still believe the Dodgers are going to make a big push for Cole, but it looks like Texas has more to offer, if we accept that Urias is untouchable.

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20. i’m ok with keeping Hamels if we cannot get top tier prospects. Phillies have financial capability to turn things around quicker. If the Phils can move on from Howard, Brown, Chooch and Asche (although i like him in the bench) on offense — possibly go after Upton and a combination of Altherr/Dugan promotion and/or FA signings for both corner OF, Utley can be the 1B, and promote Lino or Knapp as C. On the pitching side, Buchanan, Nola and Morgan will be a good #4/#5 option so the Phils can sign #2 or #3 such as the Japanese dude Meada (?), Zimmerman, Cueto, Price if the price is not crazy. A rotation of Hamels-Maeda ($18-20M), Nola, Leake, Morgan i think is achievable without breaking the bank. Ogando and Ramos will improve the bullpen and a line up of Hernandez (2B)-Dugan (RF)-Franco (3B)-Upton (LF)-Utley/Ruf (1B)-Altherr (CF)-Galvis(SS)-Lino(C) as starters with Frenchy (LF/RF), Rupp (C), Asche (3B/LF), Stassi (1B) and a veteran 2B/SS as bench in 2016. Help is not far with Quinn, JPC, Eflin in AAA and Hoskins in AA and Imhoff, Pinto, Kyle Martin not far behind. Add some $$ to go after international FA the Phils can do the turn around in 2-3 years time.

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    1. kk, you got the kitchen sink in there!

       Ya that was some of my frustration less than a year ago when the Phils announced they were throwing in the towel for the next 2-3 years. I could see them saying 2015 was a rebuilding year, but 3 years? I mean its almost like they were mega sand bagging after three years of promise, they figured they drop the floor out and use reverse phsyc.

       I’m not a phils org hater but they have been doing and saying some major junk the past 3 years.

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       1. just to cover my tracks, I’m not saying that they have not made some strides in last couple drafts and trades, I’m just saying, what they say especially Ruben, has been puzzling at times,

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          1. agree. i don’t hate gillick – but his face (showing lack of passion and interest) during the mcphail press conference says a lot. fans defend gillick since he won us the 2008 WS — but his choice and support of Amaro probably caused us to win at least 2 WS.

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             1. History shows that Ruben was a fairly good GM in 2009-2011. He built power houses.

                The people that say “oh that was Gillick’s team” realize Ed Wade built the foundation of the 2008 and 2009 teams. Gillick put them over the top in 2007-2008 and Ruben did the same thing by acquiring Lee and Pedro in 2009 (no chance the Phillies make it to the World Series without those two). Ibanez had a monster first half and basically carried the team.

                If you read Zolecki’s book the Lee to Seattle trade was an ownership mandate. Lee wanted 6 years and the Phillies wouldnt give him that so the Phillies targeted Halladay who signed a 3 year deal well below market value. Montgomery and ownership mandated Ruben trade Lee before announcing the Halladay trade. Ruben basically had 24 hours to negotiate that trade… As we can see currently it is very hard to get good value in a deal that needs to be consummated that fast, so the Phillies targeted Mariners prospects that their front office should have known a lot about.

                The Phillies went into the 2010 and 2011 playoffs with the best team in baseball and came up short. That’s not Ruben’s fault that’s on the player’s not on Ruben.

                The key to the Phillies demise was their poor drafting and player development. They’ve seemed to have addressed those issues. I am not advocating Ruben be resigned as a GM but its hard to see how Ruben cost us World Series when he was responsible for 2 of the best teams in franchise history.

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                1. He could lose his job for the Pence trade alone. And then to give up on him after less then a year for pennies on the dollar just looks awful in hindsight.

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                2. Yes I don’t think anyone is debating the job done by everyone, for the big club, during 2007 – 2011. I don’t even hold anything against them for most of their moves (again the big club, not the minors) during 2012 till now. It was more the things they were saying and doing in front of the camera and microphone. Basically saying they were not going to be competitive for the next 2-3 years, then saying possibly longer.

                   Dissing Howard and then Utley. I mean you don’t need to tell us / the press that we would be better off without Howard. A good leader does not throw his long time troops who made the team a lot of money, under the bus in public. You might say something like that to them personally (I even question that) to maybe light a fire or something, but you don’t say that to the press.

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                3. Rick….how positive are you that Charlie was not the one who ‘persuade and pushed’ Ruben to go after Pence at that time in 2011?

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                4. @aces – phillies is on the rise post 2008 with big FA are drooling to be with the team so being a GM is not really a big challenge because the team is going to win games. Bad decisions, misses in FA, poor scouting and player development and big contracts are the demise of this team and that leads to the nose of the Front Office Amaro in particular. We could have both Lee and Doc in 2010 and Phils could have Beltre than Polanco in 2009, promote Moss than pay Ibanez, the Hunter Pence saga, poor FA signings and so on. The success of the 2009-2011 Phillies mask the ineptness of Amaro and the accumulation of mistakes made by the FO which becomes exposed when Doc and “the Core” started to breakdown.

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                5. Romus, even if Charlie parked himself in front of Ruben’s office and vowed not to move until he traded for Pence – if that’s the best deal Ruben could come up with it’s a fireable offense.

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       2. IMO the monty-gillick-amaro combo is the problem for the last 3 years. with middleton stepping forward and outsider in mcphail joining, i have hope that the new FO will not tolerate mediocrity the way monty let it happened the past few years

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    2. Joint to emphasis, the 2016 Utley should not be a full time, $14-16M player. Phils can keep Utley (if he’s ok) as a $3M 1B-2B-LH Pinch Hitter that can provide home grown veteran presence

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       1. i mean “just to emphasize” not joint to emphasis (which doesn’t make any sense)

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    3. This plan would be the equivalent of rebuilding a house on quicksand using matchsticks.

       That lineup is atrocious. It’s basically Franco/Upton and a bunch of replacement- and below-replacement-level players.

       I know nothing of Kenta Maeda (http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=maeda-001ken), but I wonder about throwing $20 million at him without ever having thrown a pitch to a major league player.

       This is the same sentiment that made RAJ hold onto Lee in 2012 and Hamels and Utley in 2013 — and look what happened. Lee’s arm disintegrated and Utley is a shell of his former self. (another thing — Utley playing 1B in the big leagues with his current numbers is ridiculous. They’d be better off with Howard there, as atrocious as his numbers are). This may be the last opportunity to sell high on Hamels — they need to do it.

       This franchise is too bad to have a quick rebuild. They need top five picks this year and next, the prospects from the Hamels and whatever other deals they make this year, AND legit minor league prospects to blossom into MLB stars or regulars (Crawford, Randolph, Quinn, Tocci, Hoskins, Altherr, Kingery on the position side, Nola, Eflin, Lively, Biddle and pleasepleasedeargodpleaseohplease Kilome on the pitching side). A few FAs aren’t going to cut it.

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       1. honcho – you missed the point of my comment. 1st, i’m saying that don’t trade hamels JUST FOR THE SAKE OF TRADING and 2nd, Phils should use their financial muscle to turn things around. building a team thru draft picks is good if you continue to hit — and this is obvious fact. In MLB, draft picks start to contribute 3-4 years down the road. so without the FA infusion and flexing of financial resources, the 2016-2017 is not only a losing team but a bad product. I’m not disagreeing that you build thru draft (which everybody in this thread will agree).

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          1. There is a difference between using free agents to fill your roster holes and going all-in on a guy like Upton when everyone else on your team is replacement level or below. It’s like spending a ton of money on new appliances and furniture when your house is two years away from being built. Upton will cost upwards of $200 million — do you really want to commit that kind of money? He’s a nice player, but he’s not the superstar that’s going to carry a team to a title.

             Phillies fans have to accept that the team HAS to be a bad product for the next few years in order to give prospects the opportunity to prove they belong. (And, to get high-level draft picks that can add to what looks like a nice run of first-round picks). Then you go out and spend on free agents to fill your other needs.

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             1. BTW, everything I said about Upton goes for Heyward as well.

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                1. Not sure why people see Upton and Heyward as players who will carry a team deep into a playoffs. Both seem to K high and not lived up to potential.

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                2. Romus, I’m with you. Heyward has been all hype. His only value has been his OBP which he tops off with no power to speak of.

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       2. A few FAs aren’t going to cut it —- this is a yes and a no. there are 25 spots in the team and there’s no way you can fill the 25 roster spot using your minor league prospects. it will be great to have 3-4 starters and 2-3 in your rotation + 4-5 in the bullpen (with 1-2 coming in every 2-3 years) to build as a foundation. but you will still need to fill your team with FAs and young non-prospect guys.

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21. Cool stat on Franco

    Maikel Franco has gotten ahead 2-0 in 45 PA (16.7%, lg. avg. 13.3%). Those PA that have gone 2-0 have resulted in a .452/.622/.774 line

    — Baseball Paul (@paul_boye) July 27, 2015

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22. Nice tweet on Pujols from a BP scout

    https://twitter.com/TuckerBlairON/status/625465740880121857

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23. I would hand Heyward a blank check. He’s 26 years old and will be in his prime from 2017 on. Signing him would be reminiscent of signing Thome and the Nationals signing Werth.

    Holding onto Hamels at this point would be downright foolish. Hamels will be 33 when the Phillies are *potential contenders. While there have been pitchers that have been effective at that age (Cliff Lee) his age 34-35 seasons become huge question marks.

    The farm system is devoid of any impact talent in the upper levels save for Crawford. They need to be targeting guys who will be on track for a 2017 debut. I’m perfectly fine with a package of 4 low A and high A guys as those are guys that would fit right in with the Phillies window to contend. Is there more risk with them? Absolutely but the reward could be huge. The Phillies have done a good job of getting value for their veterans (Byrd, Rollins, Hernandez, McDonald, etc. Holding onto Hamels for a chance at a second Wild Card in 2017 is just as risky as acquiring any minor leaguer is. Not saying they should give away Hamels but there’s a way to get good value out of a trade without a team’s top 3 prospects or even #1 prospect. Hamels is the last good chance the Phillies have at adding impact talent into this farm system short of top 3 picks in the draft… They need to cash him in.
    There’s s solid list of free agents in the 2016 off season that the Phillies could go nuts on.

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    1. With a steadily declining OPS+ year-to-year, a .758 OPS in 2015 and HR total of 14 – 11- 9 the last 3 seasons you want to give him a bank check? This is a player who’s entire value is built around OBP. He’s gotten to the point where he provides almost no power whatsoever and his hit tool hasn’t developed at all since his rookie year. No thanks, let someone else overpay for him.

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       1. I still see him as a potential superstar and I believe his power would play up in our ballpark. He’s just about to enter his prime years and he is an elite defender. Free agents his age do not come around often. To sign him to an 8 year deal would lock him up through his age 26-34 seasons.

          In addition I mentioned the 2016 free agent class. Guys like Strasburg and Cashner are going to become free agents, guys who could be paired with Nola at the top of our rotation.

          I don’t know if Kenta Maeda is going to be posted this year but he’s a guy the Phillies should target as well.

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          1. Cannot envision and project Strasburg becoming the dominant pitcher he was a few years ago. His metrics have sloped downward. Plus pitchers, starters, according to analytics, after 600 IP post-TJ, begin their downward spiral.

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             1. Just throwing names around. I’m not saying the Phillies should sign those two guys in particular. I wanted to make the point that there are guys who will be available during that window who can have a similar impact to the 2017+ Phillies that Cole Hamels would.

                To me it makes the most sense to deal Hamels and combine the prospects the Phillies will acquire with potential free agents signings that fit into that 2017 window. Guys who can actually impact the 2018, 2019 which is probably going to be the first two years the Phillies truly contend instead of threatening.

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          2. For the reasons I listed above I couldn’t disagree more. His offensive value is built around his OBP. His hit tool has never progressed and his power has regressed every season. No thanks – pass.

             As for Strasburg, I’m not overpaying for a pitcher who’s already blown his arm out and has spent other spells on the DL. This spells disaster.

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       2. Plus 1

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          1. The plus 1 was for Rick.

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    2. I have not read all the threads, but I think most people agree that now is the time to trade him. I also think most people agree that id they don’t get impact players in return for him they should not trade him. Its kind of obvious.

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       1. There’s no way holding onto Hamels becomes a win. If the Phillies can’t get the near MLB ready impact talent people crave they should look in the lower minors for it.

          I think they come away with at least an Alafaro or a DeLeon as a headliner but the key to winning a Hamels deal isn’t going to be the headliner is the going to be the 2-3 pieces.

          Who would’ve thought in 2009 the Cliff Lee deal would look better for Cleveland than the Roy Halladay deal looked for Toronto?

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       2. @rem – i’m on that boat. the phils farms system improved over the years particularly in the impact of the LA talents. although it still lacks in star power, it made up for strong depth particularly in the low levels. so trading hamels for a bunch of low As may not make sense. phils need at least a MLB-ready/AAA player + AA as a starting point with low As to complete the equation.

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          1. My evolving opinion based on the Williamsport/GCL/Lakewood games so far is that the pitching pipeline up to and through Clearwater may be full for next season.

             I am not sure there is a clear benefit to getting a A or A+ arm.

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             1. You cannot reason like that…especially when it comes to pitchers. They are very fluid and injuries are too certain.
                You cannot have enough pitching.

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                1. I think there are enough starters and relief pitchers at the lower levels that adding someone in the event of injury will not be a problem.

                   Don’t forget, we are running six man rotations. Those rotations will not carry up to Lakewood or Clearwater. Some guys will jump from GCL to Lakewood.

                   We are seriously full and next summer there will be a new crop of pitchers sliding into place after the draft.

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                2. Hope it stays that way. In any event, I would still try to get at least one AA or AAA level arm in any Hamels deal.

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                3. I would target a AA or AAA arm in any deal as well.

                   I believe that the surplus arms is another reason why RAJ may be looking at AA/AAA arms.

                   KC sent the Reds two guys who could be in their rotation next season. If that is part of the asking price I would be asking for multiple MLB ready arms.

                   I honestly did not realize how full we are until I read the lower level SP/RP reports. Once I looked at the reports I saw the surplus.

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    3. 1. Part of the reason the system is devoid at the top is the graduation of Franco and Nola.

       2. The big spenders last offseason (Red Sox, Marlins, Padres) are regretting that decision.

       Unless we get those top tier talents there is no reason to sell Cole low.

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       1. The Phillies are going to get good value for Hamels though. No way they sell low. The problem is does the expected return for Hamels match up what will likely be the actual return?

          You also have to weigh that with the potential Hamels goes down with a tommy john or a shoulder injury. Also you have to weigh the potential that prospects b c and d being offered for Hamels could break out and become piece A next year.

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       2. Crawford , , Dugan , Altherr, Lino, Perkins, plus Elfin, ! Iively all could be next yr. Hoskins , Martin, Kingery., Pinto, maybe up by end of next yr. College bats that start at Lakewood can sometimes move faster so next yr martin and Kingery start at clearwater mid season get too Reading teen too Philly . That’s the fast track with no Injuries .

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24. Hopefully trade goes down with the Rangers, like to ge Nick Williams and Mazara.. there’s your futre outfield, Williams, Alther, Mazara… have them throw in a A ball pitcher too..

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    1. You forgot Quinn, Tocci or Herrera in CF, and Randolph in LF.

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       1. Trade bait or replacement, some prospects can be traded… Quinn , tocci 2 years away, Randolph three…

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          1. If Randolph is only 3 years away I’m going to throw a party….

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    2. I don’t think the Phillies can pry both of those guys away from Texas but I’d like to see one of them and some of:

       Ortiz, Brinson, Thompson, Morgan, Beras, and maybe even Profar as a hail mary. He doesn’t seem to fit into the long term plans of Texas with Andrus and Odor. If he can come back healthy at some point he would look good paired with Crawford up the middle. He’d be a heck of a lottery ticket.

       I don’t think I made my point very well but I would be willing to forgo the demands of an upper echelon headliner if the overall package was solid enough. I think the Phillies leave a deal with the Dodgers or Rangers with a good headliner (Mazara, Williams, Alfaro, Holmes, DeLeon, Barnes, etc) but that isn’t going to make or break the deal for me. The Phillies have been scouting the Rangers since 2012 for a Hamels trade and have made numerous trades with the Dodgers over the years. They should know exactly what guys in the mid-low minors to target.

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25. I’m also in the minority on this but I would seriously consider shopping Cesar Hernandez to a team like Kansas City. He’s playing as well as he is probably ever going to play currently and I see him as an upgrade over Infante. I’m not sold on him as the second baseman of the future but Hernandez seems like the type of player that could have an impact on a post season game be it as a pinch runner or a well timed single from him as a #9 hitter.

    Utley’s option is certain to not vest at this point right? No harm in playing him and hoping he can regain his stroke. Even if they flip him in an August deal for lottery tickets the Phillies could install Blanco and insert triple A guy here at 2nd for the month of September and target a place holder type of free agent in the off season like a Stephen Drew or a Gordon Beckham (or take a shot at a shortstop stopgap and slide Galvis to second) while they wait for Kingery.

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    1. Agree about shopping Hernandez. For that matter, I would shop everyone on the big league team except Franco. That includes Giles, who could be a valuable piece in a trade.

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    2. Same here Cesar out of options too so get what u can for him.

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    3. Cesar Hernandez
       6/22-7/6: 67 PA, .458/.515/.542, .551 BABIP, .084 ISO
       Rest of season: 188 PA, .204/.305/.290, .252 BABIP, .086 ISO

       I think a team that relies on metrics like the Royals already knows this. We have no chance of dumping Cesar on them.

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26. Zona on board now showing interest

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27. Why is every one in love with Thompson. I just will stop listening and reading about hamels trade. I believe its silly. texas wont give us mazzara. or Alfaro who is not someone I want. seagar is off the table. urias is a hof off the table. So hamel stays and I hope the Phillies don’t cave. For the secondary prospect we are being offered. We have this type now in the minors.

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    1. rocco…..like I said before….if Cashman opens up and offers Judge…and currently on the DL, pitcher Ian Clarkin and erratic catcher Gary Sanchez….the Phillies may bite.

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       1. I hope the Phillies don’t take a centerpiece of Judge. He would have been a great outcome for a Papelbon or Rollins trade last year but I dunno I’m not enthused by him as a Hamels centerpiece. No doubt the Phillies like Judge though

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          1. Judge is the one and only right-handed bat in all these trade scenarios, who will give you a plus RF defense, along with 25/30 HR potential…starting as soon as next year. All the other trade scenarios OFers, ie Mazaro, Margot, Almora, Verguro…all years away and years of doubt.
             Judge’s power in the Cape Cod league three years ago was plus and has continued since.
             He would be in the Phillies RF in June 2016.

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       2. clarkin hasnt pitched all year, right? had read somewhere he may end up needing tommy john.

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28. Rocco u think maybe Holmes , De Leon plus a bat ? Holmes and De Leon numbers are really good.

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29. Sox just traded Victoria for Rutledge of the Angels

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    1. Clippard is off the board as well which is good for the Phillies. One less option for Toronto and Washington.

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    2. This spell check hates me. That’s the flying Hawaiian.

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30. There is a good reason to Keep Cole IF the Phils were going to rebuild quicker than what has been let out. However, to get a top tier SP, they will have to massively overpay, because who is coming here to get no run support? So, let’s say they throw a big contract at Heyward, a player that I like, and then they also get Matt Wieters, as they need a C, and a Lino/Knapp combo will not play in the Majors next year. And, then they are able to get a Zimmermann/type to sign. Is that a WC contender? Because, if it is not, and remember, this is a best case scenario for the off season, then there is no point to keeping Cole. And, I have no reason to think going all in this off season is the Phils plan.

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    1. Tulo to the Blue Jays… woah.

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31. I’d go for 1 pitcher sell them on Franco , Crawford, Nola I’d wait a yr and get Bruce.

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32. All of these teams say they have untouchable prospects, but the Phillies’ position is that Hamels is also untouchable unless one or more of these untouchables becomes touchable. So, it all comes down to who says, “You can touch.”, first.

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    1. “you can touch if i can touch”

       -ruben to teams interested in Hamels

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    2. i agree. the Dodgers don’t have to concern themselves with luxury taxes, etc; they can sign whomever they want. you can add Cole to go with Kershaw and Grienke and maybe become the world series favorites right now and you won’t do it because an 18 year old lefty is untouchable?

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33. I Dvr the Hamels no hitter and invincible the Movie at the same time.

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34. Roccom what’s your over under in wins ?

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    1. 55

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       1. O boy mine was 60

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35. Now we have some names the Rangers are offering Chi Chi , Ortiz. Williams , Brinson, Jorge http://www.sportsfanlive.com/web/article?action=viewArticle&articleId=16808573&team=mlb-philadelphia_phillies per Ken Rosenthal.

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    1. No Mazara? Rangers better throw in four of those other five names.

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       1. Chi Chi has struck out 15 batters in 43,1 innings. Granted he plays in an extreme hitter’s ballpark and in the American League but that seems like a huge red flag to me. I’d be pushing for Thompson, Williams, Ortiz, and a lesser piece.

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          1. I’d even eat the money (depends on the money) for Alfaro but at that point I’d still want Williams in a deal. Maybe sub him out for Brinson if necessary.

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             1. The Phillies top scout was watching Thompson tonight but he got lit up. Not sure if it was good or bad.

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          2. Thompson. Williams Ortiz and you make the deal? without mazzar this type of deal is a schilling deal. I Like Williams but must get more or no deal. We are playing that game deal or no deal. If texas is serious they will give up mazzar or no deal. You get a ace at a cheaper contract than any other aces, for 4 year commttment, for a unproven prospect. I believe the Phillies wont budge and I don’t blame them.

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             1. I’m with you Roccom. The entire Rangers staff (starters and relievers) barely have a higher WAR than Hamels alone. They don’t want to meet the price and keep recycling that crap every night, fine.

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       2. More precisely, without Mazara, I would need Alfaro + Williams + two of the other three (Chi Chi, Ortiz, Brinson). Or, worst case, maybe one of the other three plus a lesser piece.

          Overall, just not as interested in a trade with the Rangers that doesn’t include Mazara.

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          1. Mazara has to be the headliner in a Rangers deal. Alfaro would have been the headliner in ’14 but now he is a nice addition, but he keeps gaining weight and now he has an ankle issue.

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36. Gotta have two outta three of Williams, Alfaro and mazara.
    Don’t care about the others… Time to play chicken and see who flinches

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    1. Exactly. If all of these teams stay true to their word, and these prospects are “untouchable” then screw em. I want Mazara, Urias, Seager, some guy with superstar upside. If they are going to only offer us 2nd rate guys, screw em.

       and the Yanks saying Judge is untouchable is an absolute farce. Hes not even that good.

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       1. So you scouted Judge and already label him as ‘ not even that good’
          Of all the OFers mentioned in the Hamels scenario from LAD to Sox, he is below all of them I assume.
          Interesting.

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          1. Judge is a fine corner outfield prospect. I would like him in a package, absolutely. But he is not good enough to be “untouchable” for an ace. Has a very hard time with offspeed pitches adn likely won’t hit for high average. Hell give us 25 hrs alright though. Yankees are just acting like hes babe ruth

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             1. I can see him playing next year in the majors. The usual June call up to get the extra year service time.
                You are right on hitting for high average….will he be a .300/.375 BA/OBP guy?…probably not…..but I think he is in the .260/270/BA.345/.355OBP range…and with the power pop for 20plus HRs.
                And he does give you a good defense, though Aaron Altherr could be better in RF.

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37. Dodgers willing to listen now on Puig. This has to be a direct result of Hamels negotiations. Would you do it?

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/dodgers-yasiel-puig-listening.html

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    1. Not straight up. They’re only listening b/c they want to resign Greinke and he absolutely hates Puig.

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       1. haha yeah lets take a guy with attitude issues who is in his prime now as opposed to in a few years

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          1. Are those the only 2 options?

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          2. I would love to get Puig. as a fan with a bad team, this would be great reading. Puig and paps in that Locker room. I think they could get a reality show.

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             1. The PuPa Show.

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          3. Puig is 24. He’s got eight prime years ahead of him.

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             1. so well sit through 3-4 years of trying to develp nola and crawford but with puig showing up 30 mins late and acting above everyone? no thanks.

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                1. If you had a chance to trade for Barry Bonds in 1989, knowing that he’s got an attitude and his teammates do not like him, do you do it? If you could deal for Manny Ramirez in 1996, would you pull the trigger?

                   I’m not saying Puig will have a career that equals these guys, but the talent and production so early in his career is undeniable. You don’t pass on guys like this so you can take Nick Williams and Jorge Alfaro instead.

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                2. One difference between Bonds/Ramirez and Puig……their first three years were all progressive elevations, then a slight plateau, then a steady production…Puig, on the other hand, has trending downward since 2013.

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                3. @ Romus: Actually, his fWAR improved by 1.2 games between seasons 1 and 2. He’s having a down year this year, sure, but the BB/K rates have stayed the same. His BABIP this year is .303, 50-60 points below where it was in more than 1,000 big league plate appearances his first two years. Getting Puig in a Hamels deal would be the ultimate buy-low scenario.

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                4. For sure, Puig has all the tools, below his shoulders.
                   IMO, he would have to come with other assets in the deal.
                   Phillies could always move him in a few years, if he is that disruptuive, and if he has progressed then they could get a nice return. I would think a large Latin market team like the Yankees would bite.

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    2. Holmes and Puig plus DeLeon or Verdugo I would do it. I don’t like Puig even a little bit because of the way he plays the game but no denying his talent. If Puigs issues are maturity then you could see a different player after a trade.

       Worse case scenario is you flip him in a year or two if he doesn’t shape up.

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       1. Puig on the ’09/’10 team would be great…..the Core Four plus Chooch keeps him in tow…..Puig on this team with youngsters coming up….not sure he can be the leader type.

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    3. I would be ecstatic with a package of Puig and DeLeon for Hamels.

       A lineup of:
       1. Revere
       2. Crawford
       3. Franco
       4. Puig
       5. Heyward (via free agency)

       Would be a really, really good lineup.

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38. I was thinking why don’t we try to meet at a game before end of year. Romus can collect the money to buy jim two season tickets. with food.

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    1. rocco…you like to volunteer me for many things! 😉

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39. Ortiz is TX best pitching Prospect hands down forget Thompson and Chi Chi

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40. Great tweet on the prospects that we traded for Halladay, Lee and Oswalt

    Who PHI traded for Doc/Lee/Oswalt, ranked by career bWAR v. them w/ PHI. Or, why they aren't asking too much for Cole pic.twitter.com/fHXrXsaVjS

    — sir_lucas_craptian (@reclinergm) July 27, 2015

    A no brainer win for Phillies.

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    1. Carrasco, Gose, Happ and D’Arnaud still have a few more years to elevate total WAR. However, could they total 30WAR over the end of their contract is doubtful I would think

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       1. end of their career, not contract

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       2. @ this point if they reach a combined 15 WAR it would be a miracle – and that includes a major turnaround/ leap forward from Carrasco.

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    2. A little unfair because Carasco, Marson, Donald, and Knapp got the Phillies only half a year of Lee, Aumont, Gilles, and Rodriguez. Suddenly the 7.5 WAR of the package the Phillies gave up for Lee isn’t such an awful return for the Indians. Even if you throw out Aumont’s -0.7WAR and add the 4.8 WAR Lee accrued with Seattle and Texas in 2010 that is 5.9 WAR for Lee before Free Agency.

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    3. Add in the pence trade

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       1. Ok, let’s talk about the Pence trade:

          Gave up:
          – Singleton: -1.2 war
          – Cosart: 2.1 war (after 3 seasons)
          – Santana: -0.5 war

          Pence (since trade from Houston, including 2 teams): approx. 14.7 war

          That trade was 5 seasons ago! 5! Singleton and Santana look like AAAA players. Cosart is having a horrible season in his 3rd year and was traded as a 24 year old (which tells you something).

          I maintain, that the only bad trade that RAJ made was trading Pence to San Fran. That was a disaster. But he sold high on prospects one every other deal.

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          1. The Pence situation is funny. At the time, Ruben clearly gave up too much to get him- a good but not all-star caliber OF. At the least, Ruben could have used those prospects to trade for a different, better player.

             People always (rightfully) bash Rube for hanging on to veteran players for too long. Hunter Pence was 29 when the Phillies traded him and he was in the middle of a 1.6 fWAR year. He had generally hovered around 3 WAR per season before that. Then Pence went to San Fran and had the best seasons of his career at ages 30 and 31. The one guy we trade before he’s out of his theoretical prime, has his best years after age 30.

             Some of Pence’s success is relative to the declining offense across baseball, but that’s still poor luck.

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             1. Pence was an All-Star in 2011, the year they traded for him. He was 27 years old and entering his prime years. He was in the middle of a 4.3 WAR season. Those type of players don’t grow on trees and they don’t often change teams.

                The mistake was flipping him to SF for garbage.

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41. If Ben Revere heads to the Mariners, like to see RHP Edwin Diaz and OFer Tyler O’Neill head east to Philly. They are lower top ten prospects in the Mariner organization but do have potential.
    Marte, Peterson and Jackson I am sure are untouchables and Revere does not have the value for any of that return.

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42. Giants making a push for Cole. Aside from Andrew Susac, who would it take to make that trade? I know very little about the Giants prospects.

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    1. Two of ,Crick, Beede and/or Mella all RHPs who would I assume be included in the package.

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       1. Got to have Beede or Mella agreed don’t know if we get 2 but I’ll say you need to also get Arroyo

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    2. After the last trade I would want the medical records and a physical from the Giants due to the concussion problems of Tommy Joseph they did not reveal. After that trade I don’t trust the Giants word.

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       1. I think the concussion was a known thing at the time of the trade.

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    3. Giants are out. Their prospects are not good enough.

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       1. They cannot put together a strong enough package from their prospect pool.

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          1. I saw Nightengale’s tweet too – but it doesn’t make sense. The Giants HAVE the prospects. They’re apparently just not willing to part with a strong enough package.

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43. Does anyone remember how much separated us from signing Susac 3-4 years ago? Wasn’t it about 100,000 k?

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    1. 23 thousand was the number

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44. I think you are right Joe, The Poster children for the Phils failures to grow farm while still contending were losing Susac and Workman for very little $.

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    1. Oh no!…..now you will get rocco started on Workman and Susac again! 🙂

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    2. How about aj griffin too. Even though he is hurt he was good for Oakland. He wanted a little more to sign and we wouldn’t do it.

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    3. Let’s not forget Kyle Gibson.

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45. I wonder how much the Astros and Giants rumors are just an attempt to drive up the offers of division rivals Rangers and Dodgers?

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46. Some thoughts on Revere:

    It’s true enough that he is controlled only through 2017 and the Phillies are not likely to be good until 2017 at the very earliest and most likely not contenders till 2018 or later. So by all means trade him if you can get a decent return.

    But the sense I get from comments here is that many around here want him gone pretty much regardless of the return. I don’t get it.

    -as an offensive player (hitting + baserunning) his positives outweigh his negatives.
    -defensively, if you buy the metrics, he is vastly improved this year. Not just in LF, but CF as well. In fact, he is, per the metrics, better than average in CF. Take this with a grain of salt of course, but with his speed, even decent route running skills – which are teachable – makes him an above average defensive center fielder.
    -Per fWAR this year, he is a well above average regular this year, and easily the most valuable Phillies’ position regular (with the caveat that Franco is better on a per game basis).
    -alternatives in CF are limited. Herrera will never be a major league regular. Altherr maybe, but he may be better suited to RF, and it isn’t as if the Phillies have tons of options there. Quinn is at least 2 years away, and a question mark because of the injuries.

    So yes trade him if you can get a good return. But I will not be at all sad if he is still on the team next week.

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    1. Like I mentioned earlier, if Ben Revere is traded to the Mariners, who is a team rumored to be in the mix for him, then like to see RHP Edwin Diaz and OFer Tyler O’Neill head east to Philly. They are lower top ten prospects in the Mariner organization but do have some potential.
       Their other top prospects of, Marte, Peterson and Jackson I am sure are untouchables and Revere does not have the value for any of that return.

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       1. To be clear, if they can get that return then they should pull the trigger. But if they are just getting a lottery ticket in return, then no.

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47. What does the team do with Cody Asche?

    Despite disagreeing with those who saw him as a budding star, I always liked Asche. I thought he could be an average regular. An average regular has a ton of excess value during his pre-FA years.

    Last year he was … a mild disappointment, but still promising. Not quite as much hitting as you would like to see from your third baseman, and below average defensively, but with further growth you could see him meeting my “average regular” projection.

    This year:

    -move to LF, where the hitting expectations are higher than 3B.
    -yet his hitting, instead of improving, has gotten worse.
    -not to mention his defense. Yeah,. he’s new to the position, and should improve. He needs to improve a lot just to be decent.

    As a result of 1, 2 and 3, he is well below replacement value this year. But what can/should the team do with him going forward?

    -probably no reason not to give him regular ABs this year. Maybe he’ll improve
    -next year … I guess it depends. It’s not like they have many other OF options. Altherr and Revere (if he isn’t traded). That leaves at least one spot. They are not signing a top FA. I’d probably prefer Asche to Herrera or Brown or a re-tread.

    But then what? I can’t see him developing into even a second division regular in LF. I still see SOME possibility of him developing into a decent third baseman, but he won’t get that opportunity in Philadelphia. Trade him? But his trade value has to be very low now. A bench guy? Maybe, but his positional flexibility is limited.

    I don’t know the answer. Hate to just give up on him, but …

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    1. A corner OF with a .280 OBP? Seriously?

       He’s a below replacement level player.

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       1. Well yeah, that’s kind of my point.

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          1. Well if you’re asking what to do with him, he’s a AAA player. He is cheap at the moment and he continues to play poorly until he’s replaced. Seems pretty logical.

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    2. Depends on the makeup of the team next year. I imagine that he’ll get a shot to win a spot in LF next spring training but will probably end up on the bench. Maybe they can get him reps in RF and 1B to make him a little more versatile, but ultimately he’s going to have to hit better or he’ll end up a AAAA guy.

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    3. Next year will be the key. Write this year off for the reasons you mentioned.

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    4. He’s getting hot now give him until sept. Brown still being sent out there and he’s doing worse. Asche is the type of player that st.louis and the Giants will get the most out of him . A college bat that every body likes and is great with the fans. Matt Stairs loves his swing he’s been hot the last few days. Almost all the players on this team now except for Franco and Nola are not going to be here after next season.the Phillies phture LF is in rk ball so not blocking anyone.

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48. He is, by all account, a terrific, hard working guy, but he just does not project as a regular. The hope is that Cole brings back, at the least, a starting OF for next year’s team. Dooby in CF until Quinn or PlayerX comes aboard, and Dugan/Altherr. I do not see Dom Brown back.

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49. I love all the interest that’s popping up for Hamels, will only lead to the phillies receiving a better deal.

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50. Gotta say, I’ve got zero interest in Jorge Alfaro from the Rangers as the lead piece.

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    1. Would rather get Williams and mazaro

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51. Paps deal to Washington getting serious. Why do national want pap. he wont go there unless he is the closer. and they have a closer. makes no sense.

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    1. They had Storen when they signed Soriano. Move Storen to the 8th and give Pap the 9th and its game over.

       My guess is the ask on Kimbrel is absurd so they’ve shifted focus. Idk what to expect for Papelbon prospect wise but I think Washington is a good fit.

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       1. It depends on how much of next year’s option we pick up. If the Phillies pay $10 million then we should expect a very good prospect in return.

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          1. They would be crazy not to add money to improve the prospect haul – this is the highest and best use of their funds and the have the money to do this . . . and more

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       2. Wasn’t Fedde’s name tossed out there for Chapman but Padres weren’t interested? I think it’d be a little more appropriate for Pap.

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       3. agree with those thoughts.

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    2. Roccum, who are they talking about / asking for in return?

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52. I didn’t hear any names. But when I went on nationals pages it kimbel and then chapman there after. so I don’t know who to believe.

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53. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/phillies-asking-clubs-for-best-offers-on-hamels-by-tomorrow.html phillies want all trade offers in by tomorrow. Also Giants making a hard push

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    1. The Score is reporting that Paps WILL be traded by the deadline.

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       1. Understand Phillies want offers on the table for Psps by COB Wednesday.
          have you heard that also?

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          1. Paps vs Psps

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54. Rumor is that Cole being asked to add Astros to list of teams he will go to. That would be an interesting return! Pap would fit in well in DC with Werth and Harper.

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    1. Singleton. dominic Santana and villar for cole hamels

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       1. i guess they dont have josh zeid anymore to throw in.

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       2. rocco….another funny….not good enough Santana is a K machine, Sing only has one position and Villar cannot maintain a decent BA/OBP

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    2. They’ll get something for him, but they really need to just get Pap off the team – he’s a cancer. Get him the hell out of there.

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       1. Players seem to love the Paps.
          Sandberg/McClure may have had an issue or two with him when he managed the team. But that could be expected with most teams.

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55. Alfaro has poor BB/K rates, injury issues, poor defense, but hits for power. Sound familiar? Tommy Joseph? He should not even be in the discussion since he’s out for the year with a serious ankle injury. Brinson, Williams and Ortiz are all intriguing from Texas and might be enough for me depending on $$.

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56. I took a quick look at the National prospects and can’t help but wonder who the Phils get in return for Paps. Impossible to know caliber of prospects being considered without insight into funds being exchanged but I kind of like the high upside potential of both Jefry Rodriguez (Nationals #13) and Victor Robles (Nationals #15). Maybe just Joe Ross (MLB #100; Nationals #4)? Do either of these returns seem about the right level and quantity to expect? Perhaps I shooting too low?

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    1. id be interested in austin Voth out of AA but seems like you could go a few different directions and have something workable.

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    2. Ross is a guy that could be included….not an original Nat farmhand and fairly new in their org….so he didn’t go thru all their developmental programs.

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    3. maybe we are shooting too low- the royals just gave up Sean Manaea for Ben Zobrist?

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       1. The Royals are kind of idiots – they’ve had some good luck in the draft and have been lucky in that their players developed, but I think they routinely overpay – the GM is a sort of “Ruben Lite”

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57. Yeah. I’m way too low. Manaea and Brooks for Zobrist – really?

    1:46pm: Prospects Aaron Brooks and Sean Manaea are the two pieces heading back to the A’s, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter) and Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (Twitter link) report.

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    1. Looks like an overpay + Royals had a problem with a failed medical report in the Cueto trade? Bet the failed medical was Manaea.

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    2. There won of the best baseball teams this season and we’re in the world series last yr.if there idiot’s what does that make The Phillies .

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       1. That’s one

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          1. Thier farm sys is very good they still have 2 pitchers in BA top 100. Thier a small market team going for it I like it. When you have depth you do those kind of trades .Valentin is back the 2nd baseman form the Dodgers. Amaro road on Gillick coat tail the hole time . Maybe a KC and St louis world series.

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       2. They can still be idiots – Amaro went to the WS, the NLCS and won 102 games – he’s still an idiot.

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          1. Catch, what a classless remark by you!

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             1. I just saw this remark. Do you disagree with that conclusion or do you just think it’s too crass. If you find it to be too crass, I’ll modify it as follows: Ruben Amaro is extremely incompetent. Is that better?

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58. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/trade2015_homepage/mlb-trade-deadline-2015

    Bowden has a column proposing a Hamels for Mazara/Gonzalez/Alfaro trade. This, in my eyes, would be a perfect deal that’s fair for both sides.

    “Several teams have been in play for Hamels, including the Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers, Giants, Red Sox and Yankees. However, the Dodgers refuse to include pitching prospect Julio Urias, the Yankees won’t include pitcher Luis Severino or outfielder Aaron Judge in a deal, and the Red Sox won’t include catcher Blake Swihart. Therefore, the best fit might end up being the Rangers, who are willing to talk about all of their top prospects not named Joey Gallo. Gonzalez could go right into the Phillies’ rotation, Mazara has the potential to be an impact corner outfielder, and if Alfaro can continue to develop as a catcher, that would make his 20-25-homer power even more devastating. In addition, the Phillies’ savings of $22 million per year could be reallocated to another starting pitcher in this year’s flooded free-agent class.”

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    1. The Phillies are throwing money into that deal, so it won’t be a savings of $22M per year. Also, I need Profar as a throw-in/lottery ticket.

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59. KC still has Zimmer, Griffin , Amonte all pitchers and in BA top 100. They seem to have a system they go moror speed , as most of their prospects are fast.

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60. That’s more speed

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61. I am sitting here wondering, what is the next step. Do we go into next year with the same team minus guys like brown .Harang. Williams, revere. does the team use cheap fill ins. while hoping the minor league guys develop. Do we try to move some of t he pitchers in the minors for outfield help. Do you think any of the guys from Texas help us next year? I find it hard, but I know it might be necessary to sit pat and have another bad year to get the rebuild going. I like one thing, so far in what I have read there will be some nice pitchers in draft. I know injuries might weed out a couple. but right now puk and pint are two guys I read a lot about. and if I am the gm. I Think its a hard decision having a college guy verus a hs kid at the top. who is the better guy. puk would be faster to majors. but is pint a better prospect. I Really believe they have to nail this one. I Believe its would be Cole replacement.

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    1. I envision Harrison will be in the rotation if healthy, could be opening day starter …..Asher and Eickhoff also will get their shot as back-end guys…probably one of the two in April and both by June/July. Of course Nola is still there at the top or 2nd for sure.. But Thompson will probably not be rushed.

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       1. I’m betting Asher gets a few starts in Philly this season maybe even once he finally gets here. He was holding his in own AAA.

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          1. I would think a September call-up is a strong possibility.
             Tomorrow, does he get placed on the 40?

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             1. I’m saying yes definitely some moves coming to the 40.

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    2. Brown is not long for these team Rocco especially after that bonehead base running mistake he made last night.

       Once the dust settles from this Hamels deal and a possible Revere deal I expect Altherr to be called up, Williams to Reading and Dugan to Lehigh.

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    3. Williams, Harang are cheap replacements let’s get a new GM first then a new manager . Then a good game plan I think 3 of the Texas pitchers will Get a chance next yr . Revere might get traded today if so then the Phillies need a new lead off man.

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62. I agree with you, and I expect Alfaro to start at AA, and Williams, as well. They may try to fill in with a couple of mid priced pieces that get a shot, and Rotation should be Nola, Harrison, Morgan, one of the Texas guys and a shot in the dark, a la Harang, that they give a chance to in the hopes of moving in July.

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    1. The Phillies should follow the Twins’ and Pirates’ model of finding mid-level free agents, with intriguing upside who are affordable and sign them to a moderate 1-3 year deals. Examples are Liriano, Ervin Santana (before his latest contract) and Phil Hughes. These are pitchers who have shown some upside but for whatever reason haven’t realized their potential or have done well and then faltered. There are always guys like this available and, to be clear, I’m not talking about retreads like Hernandez, Jerome Williams or Billingsley, althogh it’s fine to have a guy or two like that; but I’m talking about a better class of pitcher, someone with significantly more upside.

       If these guys don’t do well, they can slot at the back of the rotation – but if they do well, they can become part of a contending team or they can become trade deadline fodder. This team has money to take smart calculated risks like that – they need to do it.

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       1. Those type pitchers are normally in their late 20s vs pitchers in their early-to-mid -to late 30s. The flip side…..the contract for those type pitchers….in a competitive market….will normally have to be more then the one year contract, that a guy in mid-30s would get.

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       2. The problem is those pitchers are not exactly unknown anymore. The Cubs did that for year signing guys whose FIP was much lower than their ERA.

          Everyone is on to that game now.

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       3. Problem is that more teams are getting tv money. like st Louis just got, if I am right 1.5 billion tv deal. padres too. Dodgers are buying everything in site. Washington nationals keep getting guys to defer money. So its going to be harder to find these guys. with so many teams with money to spend. The bargain guys of last year, are going to be expensive.

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          1. Every year we hear that and every year, there are 3 or 4 guys who, for various reasons, slip through the cracks. I don’t think the ecomomics are going to change this all that much.

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             1. Every team has a budget and there are luxury tax considerations. Very few teams spend up to that level.

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                1. David that is the point with all this added money from tv. The luxury tax wont be as bad on some of these teams.

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    2. I was thinking maybe Williams goes to triple a. I Get to see lhv on Saturdays on tv. and just hate that they don’t have many prospects. but your right he will go to double a. Williams after reading a lot about him is the one guy I would love to see. Texas rangers fans like him and Thomson a lot.

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63. Dodgers DFA’d Brandon Beachy, why not take a shot on him? They can afford to pay him to rehab and try to make it back. He is young with upside. Prefer that to seeing Worley again.

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    1. Having Beachy or Worley in rotation is better than watching Jerome Williams pitch. I would take a chance on Beachy.

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       1. Before he got hurt the first time around, I thought Brandon Beachy was one of the best young pitchers I’d see in a long, long time. If there’s any hope he recovers some of his lost luster I’d take a chance on him in a heartbeat – what does this team have to lose?

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64. Brewers get former Phillies prospect Dom Santana.
    Just saw his MLB pix…..he surely cannot be 22-years old!
    

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    1. Maybe he was born on leap day 🙂

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    2. that looks like Singleton not Domingo

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       1. Sure it’s Santana

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          1. I remember posters on here going to see him at LKW in’11 when he was 18-years old and saying he looked like a grown matured man compared to the other guys on the field.;)

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    3. Romus that really doesn’t look like Santana. Did you take your meds, and wear your glasses today? I am worried about you.

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65. Revere may be leaving. Wonder what we get back? Lots of spots are filled right now.

    I hope guys like Utley and Francoeur get passed along for org bodies. It would be nice to open up a lot of space for the AAA guys.

    Amaro and everyone in the front office will be busy the next couple of days working out the 40 man roster and slotting everyone into the system.

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    1. David, I am tired of hearing that the Phillies ask too much for their players. I hope Toronto’s team of base cloggers don’t make playoffs in AL.

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       1. I wonder if Ruben will be able to pry RHP Sean-Reid Foley from the Jays for Benny’ and His Jets’ Revere?
          Now that would be a heist.

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    2. There like 2 hitters in AAA Altherr and Lino who else do you see . Dugan .Perkins are next up.there no one at 2nd or 3rd. Francoeur is helping us win games and he’s great in the clubhouse. We need to get rid of Brown now we down to CF herrera and C Herandez with Revere Gone. We can bring up any AAA pitcher u want to take up Williams spot . Sept 1 first we can expand the roster. Do you really wa t to see Cory Phelps etc up here. Let’s wait until Crawford and Quinn Valentin ready.

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66. rocco…here is a fairly long scouting report by Albert Chen, MLB on the Hamels return…..just what you would like to see.
    “…..the minor leaguers in the deal, Asher, who turns 24 in October, and Eickhoff, who turned 25 earlier this month, are effectively quadruple A righties, the kind of generic arms designed to help fill out the rotation of a rebuilding ball club. Both are 6’4″ starters drafted out of community colleges, Asher coming out of Florida in the fourth round in 2012 and Eickhoff out of Indiana in the 15th round in ’11. Both have posted middling numbers for Triple A Round Rock this season after early-season promotions from Double A. Eickhoff is on the 40-man roster and thus more likely to see action in Philadelphia before Asher, who is not.
    The real return, of course, is Alfaro, Thompson and Williams, all of whom were at Double A at the time of the trade. Alfaro and Thompson were rated top-100 prospects by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus prior to this season, with Williams making BP’s list and both lists prior to last season. All three were among the Rangers’ top seven (per BP) or top five (per BA) prospects heading into this season, and all three were on BP’s midseason list of the top 50 prospects in the game earlier this month, though only Thompson made BA’s corresponding list, and just barely at that, checking in at No. 49. That said, none of them are true blue-chippers. Alfaro, who turned 22 in June, is a Colombian catcher with a strong arm and pop in his bat, but he hasn’t slugged as high as .450 above short-season ball, is still a work-in-progress behind the plate and suffered a season-ending injury to his left ankle in early June of this year, meaning he’s due to repeat Double A next year at the age of 23. Thompson, a big Texas righthander, was taken in the second round of the 2012 draft by the Tigers and traded to the Rangers in last year’s deadline deal for Joakim Soria. The 21-year-old starter throws a low-90s two-seamer, can reach the mid-90s with his four-seamer and has a good slider and a developing changeup. However, he also throws from a three-quarters arm slot and has been hit hard by lefties this season, with southpaws slashing .313/.390/.494 in 188 plate appearances against him. Bad luck on balls in play have played a part in Thompson’s poor showing in his first full season in Double A, but his peripherals are nothing special, and it seems telling that he’s been traded twice in as many seasons.
    • CORCORAN: What does each NL contender need at trade deadline?
    As for Williams, he turns 22 in September and was selected two picks after Thompson in 2012. A lean leftfielder, he’s a bat-first, and possibly bat-only, player who has speed but gets bad jumps in the field and on the bases, according to BP’s preseason scouting report. A free swinger with contact ability, Williams has cut down on his strikeouts this season (28.8% whiff rate last year to just 18.7% this year) and increased his walks (4.5% last year with two intentional to 7.5 % this year with none intentional), resulting in a strong .300/.357/.480 line for Double A Frisco with 13 home runs in 96 games. That’s an encouraging development, enough so for BP to list him as the 21st-best prospect in baseball earlier this month, ahead of Thompson (30) and Alfaro (34). Still, Williams hasn’t put up the kind of eye-popping numbers you’d like to see from a hit-first player who is arguably the top prospect in a trade of this magnitude. It’s difficult to fault the Phillies for landing so many well-regarded prospects in this trade, but I worry that they ultimately favored quantity over quality. There’s no prospect in this trade that I would expect to become a star in the major leagues. Williams and Alfaro could well be above-average regulars at their positions, and Thompson might prove to be a mid-rotation starter, but that seems to be their ceiling in each case, with the likely outcome being that just one of the three reaches that level in the majors. Still, given the hole the franchise is in right now, three prospects with some level of upside are more valuable to the Phillies at this point than an aging ace, even if the latter is a franchise icon”.

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67. I thought Williams had big upside. I read some nice things about him. We will see how this works out.

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    1. many look at the flaws ….curious to see what flaws were wrote about with Mike Trout after he was selected in the low 20s by the Angels, other then the obvious ‘south jersey’s lack of competition’ .

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