2015 Draft Discussion: Day Two

Here’s the thread to continue talking about the 2015 First Year Player Draft.

The Phillies selected HS SS Cornelius Randolph with the 10th overall pick.  Randolph is out of Griffin HS in GA.  He bats left/ throws right and is 5’11, 205 lbs, born on 06/02/97.  He has been described as one of the best pure hitters in the draft by Keith Law.  Scouting director Johnny Almaraz has indicated that Randolph will move to LF.

With the 48th pick they selected 2B  Scott Kingery.  He is a college JR out of Arizona.  He bats right/throws right, and is 5’10, 180 lbs, born on 04/29/94.  BA has some scouts comping him with Kinsler but with less power.  He’ll have a leg up on our current “second baseman of the future” since he isn’t on the restricted list.

The draft continues Tuesday and includes Rounds 3-10.  Coverage will start at 1:00 pm ET, live on MLB.com.

The draft will conclude on Wednesday with Rounds 11-40.  Coverage will start at 12:00 pm ET, live on MLB.com.

331 thoughts on “2015 Draft Discussion: Day Two

  1. Kingery is a pick Wolever wouldn’t have made in a million years, and I love it. I liken him to a Pedroia rather than Kinsler.

    As far as Randolph is concerned, while I scratched my head a bit when selected, I have to admit to not knowing a whole lot about him. I had about 15 players in my head for the Phillies to select, and he wasn’t one of them, which explains why I was initially dismayed. In any event, I need to defer to Phillies scouting here and keep my fingers crossed that he is t a player who looks overmatched in SS ball.

    1. Sounds more like Cesar Hernandez than Dustin Pedroia (who has real power just like Kinsler). He’s a spray hitter with near zero power from most reports. He’ll hit for average if he pans out, not power.

      1. With more speed, obp skills, better defense, quicker hands and a nicer swing. If he pans out.

    2. Could not agree more. I had the same feelings on Randolph and Kingery.

      Two interesting players for me in the 3rd round. RAJ saw Kolton Kendrick 1b from Amite, LA. Supposedly one of the best prep bats with power. Wesley Rodriquez RHP/3b from Geo. Washington High in Washington Heights NY. Another prep power bat. Future could be at another position rather than P.

  2. ESPN has another 2nd round pick for the Phillies. Kevin Kramer a SS from UCLA. What is known about him or is he a money saver for a pick later in the draft?

    1. I see why. After some digging, I see Pittsburgh took Kramer. Not sure why he shows up in Phillies haul.

  3. The Randolph pick definitely strikes me as odd. A number of the bats the Phillies were tied to were gone (except Stevenson and Cameron (who will want overslot money)). It seemed l like the Phillies were going to take a hitter no matter what. Most had Randolph as 15+ pick, but with Boras as an advisor and a college commitment I don’t think he is likely to save them much if any money.

    1. I guess that is where goods scouting departments make their money- drafting hidden gems that others see as reaches. I just hope they are right.

      1. And if its anything the Phillies are historically known for, its their great scouting department.

        Seriously though, I think it somewhat makes sense and along with Kingery, it shows a departure from the “best athlete available” to the “best bat available” with the first two picks. Both picks were polished bats for their level so they clearly have a specific mentality in mind. Given the very thin pitching in this draft and the overall issues with developing pitching anyway (which the Phillies really suck at even with good prospects), it probably makes more sense to go this route.

        I will give them credit that they’ve nailed their last 2 top picks in Crawford and Nola (so far at least) so I give them a slight benefit of the doubt that they wouldn’t be afforded if we were a couple years back drafting “gems” like Kelly Dugan, Larry Greene, Anthony Hewitt, Jesse Biddle, Joe Savery and Zach Collier with our top picks. All utter busts so far. Dugan might pan out as a 4th OF and its a bit unfair to call him a “top” pick given we picked him at 75 (no 1st rounder in 09 thanks to Ibanez) but I tossed him in there as their “top” pick that year. I gave Watson a pass because you cant predict injuries for the most part (Aiken being the rare exception where a team smartly passed on a guy due to injury concerns).

        1. The thing is Crawford and Nola were consensus best player available picks. Hewitt and Biddle, like Randolf, were seen as reaches. Above average (not plus) hit and power tools are great at shortstop, in leftfield your lucky if that is a second division regular.

          1. Who sees Randolph as a reach? He’s a top 20 talent per most rating services, and has an advanced approach at the plate. Completely unlike Hewitt, who was all tools but almost no contact skills or pitch recognition.

            1. @aron … not sure what you’re reading. Baseball America had him going 21st, Sports Illustrated had him going 19th, MLB had him going 14th. Jim Callis said he was the best player on the board when the Phillies picked. Callis also said, “Randolph might take a little longer to develop than a college player, but you could argue that he’s the best all-around high school hitter in the Draft.”

              Where do you see him ranked closer to 30 than 20?

          2. This was a much weaker and different draft according to the experts so different thinking was required. Not sure if Randolph would have been picked if Fulmer or Happ were still available. Randolph was considered the best hitting HS bat in the draft so his power could develop as he grows along with Charlie Manuel’s help.

            1. I get the sense that because this was considered a “weak” draft, there was not a clear and significant difference between the picks at 10 and say 25. I think the selection of Randolph is more an “in the eyes of the beholder” pick than a reach. On the MLB broadcast, he was shown as the #20 prospect on their board. The Phils obviously liked him ahead of the rest in that jumble of 10-15 players. What can we do but wait and see.

      2. Randolph is far from a “hidden gem”; he was well known and ranked by several services as a top 20 prospect in the draft. He perhaps went a little earlier than expected, but nothing that unusual and was hardly a huge reach (unlike someone like Anthony Hewitt).

        Yeah, it would be better if he could play 2B or 3B, but if he develops like the Phillies hope, he can be a middle of the order hitter.

    2. What is odd about taking the best pure prep hitter in the draft? I definitely prefer Randolph over Stephenson, who may not stick at catcher and has questions about contact skills. Also, there was late buzz connecting the Phillies to Randolph. It really wasn’t much of a surprise.

      I do agree that the Phillies were looking for a hitter at #10. It would sure be helpful if Randolph takes less than slot money, but we’ll see. With Boras, I’m not real optimistic about that.

  4. What strikes me is the change in approach. The valuing of the hit tool above all else strikes me as a great approach. Not that these guys are slouches at defense but if you have to pick a carrying tool, the hit tool would be it. Excited to see these kids play and rise fast.

    1. It reminds me of the Cardinals mentality of “we’ll find you a place to play if you hit” that worked for them with guys like Carpenter, Craig, Adams, etc.

  5. Rounds 3-10 is usually where my opinion of the draft is formed. Thought the Phillies did OK but not great with Randolph, Kingery. Really need to get good signable value in Rounds 3-5 today.

    1. Why? Teams almost never get impact players after the first 2 rounds. Hitting on an elite player after Round 2 usually takes pretty much an act of God or pure chance. That’s why you can usually list off the exceptions to that rule pretty easily given that there’s something like a 99% fail rate after that part of the draft.

      Best 3rd rounder in Phillies history: JA Happ
      Best 4th rounder: Michael Bourn
      Best 5th: Ryan Howard (huge score for us that really made a difference)
      Best 6th: Bob Boone (same as Howard above…pretty much the only 6th rounder we ever hit on)
      Best 7th: Kyle Kendrick (getting a decent 5th SP in the 7th is nice…Ken Giles is honorable mention here as a decent setup man potentially)
      Best 8th: Chuck McElroy: Um…yeah, he was “good”…gave us Mitch Williams so he basically lost us the 93 WS I guess.
      Best 9th: Ryan Madson so a great setup man and part-time closer.
      Best 10th: Marlon Byrd so another decent value pick

      Basically, in Rounds 3-6, we got one good player and maybe one other decent player in our entire history (going back to 1965). From 7-10, we’ve “hit” on literally one guy that made it to the Majors for more than a cup of coffee.

      So, I will be super happy if we manage to do that in any of those rounds this year but if they dont, I wont be shocked or disappointed given how rare it is to get real talent or even an MLB regular after Round 2.

      1. Based on the above, the Phils should have taken Daz Cameron with pick 1 and all college seniors with picks 3-10. Pay picks 3-10 a few bucks each and use all of their money on Cameron. This is partly tongue in cheek and partly serious. I know the Phils would never do this, but if the odds are so stacked against success in later rounds, maybe there are more creative ways to spend the allocated funds.

        Of course, there is another option, make good picks. Although the Phils have not had great mid round success, I would guess there are teams that have had better results. I am sure there are ways to allocate the funds more creatively, I just wish the Phils would think outside the box a bit. The Astros have the potential to take home 3 top 10 picks this year. That is crazy. This is because the Astros failed to sign last year’s #1, got this year’s #5 and picked Daz Cameron at #37. Cameron was a consensus top 10 talent. If they allocate their money creatively, they can have them all in one draft! Again, based on the assessment of how hard it is to succeed in rounds 3-10, coming away with 3 top 10 talents should raise your chances of success exponentially.

  6. v1again that was my first thought as well, and i like it a lot. it used to be draft athletes and hope they learn how to hit, but it seems like the organization finally realized that learning to hit 90+ mph pitching with breaking balls isnt some easy task.

    I really like both picks, and I am generally very hard on the organization.

  7. Rei, Chalmers, Kep Brown and Matuella all draw my attention for rounds 3-5! Especially Chalmers and Rei.

    1. No incentive for Matuella to sign for 3rd round money so I would pass. TJ surgery means he can get healthy for the next draft and get back in the upper half of the first round. So we should not waste the pick here.

  8. I don’t know if it was already brought up, but where do our 2 new guys rank? Top 10 and Top 15? And, I would also love to take a chance on Matuella. Totally on board!

    1. Not only does Matuella have an elbow issue (coming of TJ surgery) but doesn’t he have a back problem? I think I read it’s the same issue that NY Met’s David Wright has.

      1. He’s basically a faberge egg…kind of a waste of a pick given all the injuries so far.

        1. On MLB Network, they said Kingery was mentioned as a possible first-rounder who could go in the 20s, FWIW. As for Randolph, I was hoping for someone like Kyle Tucker or Ian Happ, but if he’s considered the best HS bat in the draft, that’s nothing to sneeze at.

          1. I wasn’t referring to Kingery with the faberge egg comment. I was referring to Matuella who has had numerous injury issues during his 3 years at Duke including TJ surgery.

        2. How so? His back injury is (reportedly) under control and TJ isn’t nearly as damning as it used to be. Given the inherent risk associated with all 3rd round picks (Sandberg/Brown recently) I think he’s more than worth a shot.

      2. He’s gone through core exercises that take pressure off of his back and he says it’s no longer an issue. TJ is the reason he has fallen and it is unrelated to his back. I would gladly take him in the 3rd round. Gladly.

    2. Rankings from the following services:

      MLB.com: Randolph-19, Kingery 42
      Baseball America: Randolph 20, Kingery 40
      Fangraphs: Randolph 11, Kingery 32
      True Blue: Randolph 23, Kingery 62
      Minor League Ball: Randolph 25, Kingery 88

      1. Off the records but Matt Garrioch at minorleagueball.com strikes me as basically me…a guy who loves loves to follow the draft but really doesn’t have any special ability to rank prospects.

  9. Nobody should be surprised that the Phillies went for the best bats available. RAJ stocked the farm with starting pitching over the winter and we were told that the focus would be on hitters.

    Very good start to the draft.

  10. I really think your over estimating the starting minor pitchers, You don’t have a true ace, even though nola is close imo. effin is nice pickup. but windle, isn’t anything special. biddle is a head case, nothing at triple a , and maybe a couple of a ball kids and that is a reach, when we lose cole, there is only nola and effin who look like sure major league pitchers, how good they become is anyones guess.

    1. Even without a true ace there are enough arms to fill out spots 2 through 5. In a couple of years when the bad contracts are completely off the books there will be more than enough money to go out and get that ace.

      ….or they get that ace starter in the Hamels trade.

      1. Or they can draft an ace-caliber pitcher next year when they’ll be drafting possibly at No. 1.

    2. I do agree Rocco. It certainly shifts the conversation in what you would want back for Hamels…

      I’d work hard to get something done with the Dodgers for Grant Holmes + others!

  11. yeah plenty of time for an ace, be it free agency, hamels trade, next years top 3 pick, or maybe Nola becomes that guy

  12. Or, they use their $ in a couple/3 years and sign a FA SP. It is hard to project what they do going forward. Even assuming Franco, JPC and Quinn all reach their potential and Nola and Eflin pitch in a contending rotation, the front office will have to spend $ on FAs and make the right choices. Can they do that? Probably the only thing I trust RAJ on is the ability to sign an Ace. But, one has to be available down the road.

  13. Couple guys from our usual drafting area and both from the University of Washington that interest me:

    C Austin Rei (BA 68)
    OF Braden Bishop (BA 150)

    Saw one comment on Rei so far.


  14. Just please, no more college pitchers who throw 88-90. Let’s get some guys who either have power arms or guys who can put on some weight and add some mph’s. I don’t want another Imhof, Leiter, Leinbrandt, even if those guys make the bigs, i want some arms with upsides

  15. Matuella gone at #78 and the Phillies take Lucas Williams. A simple Google search brings up absolutely nothing, and he’s the only one so far that MLB.com doesn’t have a bio on.

    1. Are you sure on his first name as Lucas?

      154 Tyler Williams of Kellis HS, Glendale, Az. Ariz. 8

      401 JD Williams ss/of David Suzuki HS Canada 8

      227 Breckin Williams rhp Missouri Mo. 5

  16. Wow. We took a guy at 83 who didn’t crack the BA 500. Perhaps we really are smarter than everyone else. Dislike the pick.

    1. Because the BA 500 has more info than the teams and clearly we fans are so much smarter than the teams.

      It did not take long for the negativity that defines Philadelphia sports to rear its ugly head.

  17. MLB.com says he came on very strong this season. Very athletic. Started HS career in OF then moved to c and then finally to SS where they say it “clicked”. Said to be very very fast. That’s all I got.

    1. Williams, Lucas Dana Hills HS (CA) SS R/R HS — 6’1″ 180lbs DOB: 08/09/96
      ….he got bigger from the early reporting it seems.

    1. I’m not sure how him being currently skinny has anything to do with his future potential.

  18. Football players are aggressive. I like that aspect of their personality.
    I know…Larry Greene.

    1. Romus see what happens when the Phillies brass don’t get there mess . they go back to the old way this is a Grillck pic he scouts CA and Washington st. I hope this kid can hit.i love the up until that pick. Maybe he’s a hard sign and we can a pick next yr in the 3rd.

  19. Williams is a very fast guy who can hit and get on base and steal bases and is a team leader to boot. Why don’t you guys like him? None of us have ever seen these kids play so we’re trusting opinions and 30 second clips. I’ll trust the new guy this time. Williams will probably get moved to CF but that’s just my guess.

    1. They don’t like him because he’s not ranked and no one can get a scouting report on him. They conflate their ignorance with a poor choice by the team. God forbid people just wait a day to hear from ACTUAL experts on this before they opine.

      1. Agree, maybe one of our scouts decided to actually scout players and not just read national or regional publications. Luke Williams made all Regional team in California so he has potential.

        1. He was the MVP of a CA all star tourney last summer, that’s got to be loaded with prospects in a CA all star game.

    2. It is just Philadelphia sports in general. If they do not pick the stud guy he sucks.

      From what little there is out there he seems like an interesting prospect.

      Fast, aggressive on the basepaths, decent hitter, flashes power, good footwork in the field.

      I think in the third round you have less than 50% chance of making The Show.

      Just because BA does not have him listed it does not mean he is not a top prospect. They do not have the resources that MLB teams have and if a scout finds a diamond in the rough AND he is signable you keep that information quiet.

  20. I can find two Lucas Williams from KY high schools, both of which graduated in 2013. Was this a selection from the American Legion ranks?

  21. I found some information on Luke (not Lucas) Williams at Dana Hills HS on the MaxPreps website. He is 6’1 and weighs 180 and has a .315 BA, .454 OBP for the 2014-2015 year. He was rated 24th nationally and 8th in California at shortstop.

  22. Another guy with a hit tool. I am usually quick to complain and David Urban has to chastise me, but I am going to go with the new guy, Johnny A., and be excited that hitting is finally a priority. Luke certainly has experience all over the field.

  23. I watched this kid throw from shortstop. he looks like he cant reach first. I hope I am wrong, but this looks like a bad bad pick. cant make first second or third showcase mention and we draft him in third round, this kid is another pick like the kid from Puerto rico academy. speed no bat,

  24. Kyle Martin is a SR 1B. Looks like that is his only position. Said to have a lot of power. Had more BB’s than K’s which is a good sign. Looks like Phillies are trying to sign for a discount. Maybe these last two picks are below slot picks?

    1. Picks 3 and 4 should hopefully create a little under $1M in room. Martin will be one of the oldest guys in this draft. His offer will likely be a mile below slot.

        1. Exactly…”Hmm, bag groceries for a bit or keep living the dream?”

          Tough choice there.

  25. martin is going to gcl as a senior citizen. what is going on, he is almost 23 last two picks . make me want marty back

    1. NO, Marty made picks like this at 4 also, and his first two picks generally weren’t as good as we have picked in this draft.

  26. I don’t think they are below slot guys. Our new scouting director said that he favors bats over pitching early unless the pitcher has 1 or 2 potential. Given the lack of hitting in the minor and our gripes over the lack of hitting the complaints about the picks are head scratching to say the least.

  27. dude they are definitely below slot guys. if they paythese guys slots its terrible

    1. Based on what expert analysis?

      Matt Winkelman ‏@Matt_Winkelman 7m7 minutes ago
      I get the feeling that Martin may jump straight to Lakewood to take the spot of Rhys Hoskins if Hoskins goes to Clearwater

      1. That’s exactly what I just said. they needed an older 1B to handle LWood because they have no one else currently to put there.

  28. The guts of the draft are the first two rounds and they were good. The interesting HS flyer picks should come somewhere in rounds 11 – 15.

  29. This is one of the weakest drafts in recent memory. Nobody should be surprised.

    The fact that we are going after hitters with speed and power tell you that this is a different scouting regime.

  30. What about the fact that they are going after guys nobody else has heard of? Are they the best scouts in the world who know more than anyone else? Wouldnt these guys be available a few rounds later? If they are doing this to draft an over slot guy then great, but if they are just being cheap or using saved $ to pay Corny Randolph what he wants then its weak

      1. Ok, so I guess if the Eagles took the QB from Northeastern in round 1 I should be ok because that is their board?

        My problem isnt them drafting off their board, my problem is their board having these guys so high that the general consensus is that they do not belong so high. But, like i said, if they are saving $ to go overslot later, then im fine with it.

        1. You’re comparing apples to oranges. Call me when the NFL starts allowing high schoolers to declare for the draft.

        2. Here’s a hint. You can’t compare the MLB draft to ANY OTHER SPORT DRAFT. And, if you think you can, you should stop paying watching.

          There are 40 rounds. There are literally THOUSANDS of players to scout. BA, BP and Keith Law put their lists together by themselves, or at best with a group of 10 people. The Phillies alone have a staff of DOZENS of guys that scout at a region level. They then pass word up the chain “Hey, there is a really good dude out here.” Then, someone else will come and watch that player and confirm the scouting report. It’s not like they are just throwing darts at a board.

          1. And those dozens of guys have a proven track record with decades of unparalleled success-

            ~touches ear piece~

            What’s that, awful draft after awful draft with no real plan? That doesn’t sound right…

            As I was saying, proven track record people…PROVEN.

            1. Yes. They have had some bad drafts. That doesn’t mean that any idiot who posts on PhuturePhillies is more knowledgeable about the draft than a room full of professionals.

            2. But it really doesn’t, actually. You (and the rest of the readers on this site) still don’t know what the Phillies front office knows, past track record notwithstanding. And let’s not forget that this is Johnny Almaraz’s first year running the draft. He has uncovered some gems for Atlanta.

            3. Past behavior definitely explain current reactions…even with a minor regime change in the Scouting Dept.

              Justify it? Maybe not but it definitely explains these visceral reactions to seemingly questionable picks.

            4. As you keep ignoring, new department head. Are you unaware of this or do you simply think it doesn’t matter?

            5. I dont necessarily agree with this mentality but I merely understand where it is coming from. The new dept head gives us reason to hope for sure.

        3. I would be rather upset if the Eagles took a QB from Northeastern in the first round, because Northeastern no longer has a football program.

    1. I said numerous times if they are going underslot now to make a move later on than cool. If they are just saving money to save money then that is bad.

    1. I’m assuming Randolph is going to cost some coin. Hopefully they have vetted all that out and they can get him signed quick and into GCL.

  31. I find it interesting that so many will instinctively white knight for the Phillies draft team given their lack of success in recent times. Before Nola/Crawford, their draft record was downright embarrassing with the last real “hit” coming in Hamels a full decade before.

    As someone who has posted here since nearly the very beginning, its always fun to see a certain group go nuts annointing each player as a future star (despite the odds) and another bash every single pick made along with the FO.

    Being a bit realistic on both fronts is probably better. Most draft picks (even in great drafting orgs) will fail and fail miserably. A Sr pick after the 1st couple rounds is almost always Org filler, nothing more, etc etc.

    1. I’m not “white knighting” anything. I’m making fun of people who make snap judgments without any information AT ALL. Not even BAD information. A complete and utter lack of information across the board.

      That 2008 draft is still a monster draft.

      1. 2008 was solid, but they whiffed massively on their top two picks. Hewitt was just an awful pick even at the time and was panned as it should have been. This was mitigated by taking a flier on Cosart late and getting him to sign as well as decent mid-range picks like Gose (who had good trade value if nothing else), Worley, May and Knapp. I’ll givey you May and Knapp simply because we got value for them in the Lee & Revere trades respectively so they were therefore “good” picks. 6 other guys made it for at least a cup of coffee but all 6 were just awful sadly.

        Best draft class they’ve had from the Hamels draft till probably Crawford though.

        Fun fact from 08: We drafted Hewitt 4 spots above the Pirates taking Garrit Cole. Ouch.

        1. Lol, and you just lost your credibility. We drafted Hewitt 4 spots ahead of the YANKEES taking Gerrit Cole. He didn’t sign. The Pirates took him 1-1 in 2011.

        2. Yeah, that makes a lot more sense. To be fair, I misread a draft summary, I didn’t commit murder or anything. It just jumped out at me that Cole went after we took a massive flier on Hewitt who NOBODY outside of our FO had that high. All because of a “great batting practice session with wooden bats at CBP” the week prior to the draft.

        3. That’s fine. They took Hewitt because they thought he had the most upside of anyone available (along with a ton of risk), and he didn’t pan out. Neither did Collier. The rest of that draft was gold. They could have taken Cole in place of Hewitt, but if the Yankees couldn’t sign him, you know the Phillies wouldn’t have been able to.

  32. Bailey Falter 85-89 FB according to Callis. 6-4 175. They joked ” can he add 50 pounds?”

    1. May be a great move to draft Falter. Check his Ks vs BB!! Outrageous! Give him 4 years and 35 lbs and he might be spectacular. A very good grab at this level of the draft!

  33. Just watched the Martin video, his swing reminds me a little of Robinson Cano. Not saying he will be even close to Cano in skill just saying his form reminds me of Cano, for whatever that is worth, if anything.

    1. Kyle Schwarber to me with quieter hands. Love that he walks more than he K’s. Throw him right into LKW and see what he has.

    1. Look a lefty with 87 in high school isn’t a bad pick imo. He has a chance to grow and get more velocity. plus with there instruction could pickup some more velocity, I object to the right handers with that kind of velo. left handers can get away with less velo than right.

    1. Well, given his career, you probably dont have much to worry about given his contact skills at the plate.

  34. I have to say, not having someone like PP, matt, or gregg here on draft day makes it tough. In past years, there was always a voice of reason after every pick and intelligent discussion followed. This year, it’s just the masses complaining that the pick isn’t on BA’s top 500 and the sky is falling. /deep thoughts

    1. After the first two rounds, there’s no such thing as over drafting. You are showing your ignorance.

      1. To be fair, that’s not exactly accurate. For example, we could pick all college seniors who are pure Org filler. That would be “over” drafting. We’re not doing there here obviously but it is technically possible regardless of the round.

        1. Unless you know that they are drafting org filler, you can’t call any pick an overdraft if it’s based on their scouting. That’s all I’m saying. Just because the player isn’t in the BA top 500 doesn’t make him an overdraft.

    2. Bryan you know Larry Green was on Laws board as going overall number 22 in the 2011 draft? And BA had Zack C at 22 as well with Hewitt at 41 both were in front of guys like Lance Lynn and Sonny Gray . . . It’s says that rankings aren’t a science.

  35. I agree with you there. I thought James was going to do an analysis for us of day 1. But with all of the scouting that goes on, how does a 4rd or 5th round pick not make it to a top 500 without the involvement of an injury? And don’t get me wrong. I am on board with Johnny A. until it is proven that this draft was or was not any good. Just gives you pause when these last 2 guys escaped the analysis of thousands of scouting people.

  36. Cozens wasn’t on anyone’s top 500 list, yet he sits in our top 10-15 prospects.

  37. Wow love the first picks 2 pics and 4th but a ss a pitcher are reaches his early.not saying that they all can’t be good it reminds me somewhat of former drafts..

  38. Even the best scouts will tell you it takes several years to determine the value of a draft class.

    As such, any armchair non-scout on this board who bashes a draft pick on the day of the draft is an over-emotional idiot. Just admit that you have no idea if these picks will pan out because you don’t.

    1. In the last 8 years, the Phillies won 5 NL East crowns, 2 Pennants and 1 WS. The list of teams that matched that 8 year record is very short. So now they are re-building and you jump ship and bash everything. It’s called being a fan. You support the team in ups and downs.

      1. Guess you forget the cold harsh reality that the Cardinals offered Pujols a ridiculous deal only to be outbid even more ridiculously by Artie Moreno. If not for that fortuitous luck, they’d have a rapidly aging Pujols entrenched at 1B and no Michael Wacha in their rotation.

        I wonder how “smart” they’d look at that point…and that doesn’t even get into the other moves they wouldn’t have made without that salary available.

        Not that their mentality and system isn’t really good but they also got some serious luck there.

    2. What a sad little child you must be, Bryan. Unfortunately, you are the epitome of the Philadelphia fan — ignorant and marinated in his own pissed-offedness.

    1. Bj your a moron. what did you ever say on here that was good. Your lack of knowledge shows each time you open your stupid mouth, I told you dom brown stunk was I wrong you moron. Told you franco can field cause I watch players and the game you cant handle the truth, moron love to meet you in person, you seems like a real jerk

  39. everyone needs to stop. If all of these guys sign for slot then you can come back and complain, but until then, let the strategy play out. It looks to me that they got some solid skills and possibly saved some money for a couple signability guys later on. I really like the first 2 picks from a present skills standpoint. 3rd rounder sounds like he was a late riser that was starting to get mentioned for the 3rd round before the draft started. He is a kid that has baseball skills and isn’t just an athlete. Martin was a good pick for a senior sign in the 4th round. I know some don’t like when they take these guys, but it happens with every team every year, and we got one of the better college seniors with pretty solid baseball skills and most likely saved a good chunk of change at the same time. Our 5th rounder sounds like our first real projectability pick, which fits with what our new scouting director said that he prefers possible starting position players over 3rd or 4th starters early. Watch the videos out there of him, kid looks like he has a simple repeatable motion and a ton of movement on his pitches. He might not throw 96 now, but his body has a lot of projection left and hes got a good foundation of motion to build out on.

    1. Great point.

      Rule of thumb for a “good” draft is to get 2 MLB caliber players in 40 rounds. Most of these guys will never play pro ball or, if they’re very lucky, will get a brief call-up at best.

      If you get 1 star player in a draft year, you’ve done well.

      1. wow lets draft guys with no shot. That is a very smart way to draft bj, nice job, what a moron.

      2. nepp very true, But each pick you make with little room to project, makes it more likely you will get nothing like 2012 draft. I like a everyday starter, a pitcher who can start and is at least a 3 and a relief pitcher or utility player. especially when you in the top ten. but lets see the brilliant bj on this subject,

        1. The point that you are not getting is that you are the one who is concluding that these picks have no projection. And your conclusions have no value.

        2. Really, Rocco, you’re a moron. I’m just a visitor here, but I know a big-mouthed ass when I hear one bray.

      3. This is exactly what all fans need to realize. Right now, if Crawford turns into a star, then basically anything else that we get out of the 2013 draft is gravy.

      4. I think those stats are correct, but they are often misinterpreted/misstated as if you get two players to the major leagues from the draft you have done well. Certainly getting one star and one MLB-caliber player (by which we should take the meaning to be a guy who is a multi-year MLB starter at a position, in the rotation, or other than the very back end of the bullpen. Kendrick has been an MLB-caliber player. In my book, Buchanan is a guy who may achieve that, but hasn’t yet. Sev Gonzalez is a guy who has been in MLB but I would be surprised if he turns out to be MLB quality.

      1. haha thanks romus, I never really left, Im on the site just about every day, I just don’t post much unless I have something worthwhile to say. I usually stick to medical related topics since that is where my “expertise” is. Last year I had a few days off so I was able to help out with keeping everything up to date, unfortunately im working today from the hospital so I guess I have to save some lives instead of just following along with the picks.

  40. Agree completely, v1. I’ve been following this site for years, especially during the draft, and it is always the same. Be patient and let it play out. It’s incredibly hard to criticize without knowing anything about these players.

  41. Tyler Gilbert is 6-3 195 JR LHP. Appeared in 22 games (6 starts) for USC. 5-2 2.79 ERA. 25BB 66K’s. Opponents batted .265 against him.

    1. .265 is on the high side for my liking. A pitcher who truly projects to the majors should dominate college hitters, right?

      1. Given the round and relative weakness of this year’s draft I would not project him anywhere.

        Nothing against the kid but every pick from now on is a longshot.

        That said, I find it interesting the first two pitchers drafted are left-handed guys.

      1. demers, Day, and Hooper are considered to be very tough signs by their pre-draft indications. Everett has a commitment to Vandy which is one of the toughest college scholarships to sign a player away from. Is it possible to lure one of these guys? sure, but even with the money we’ve saved so far, im not sure its enough to get these guys. Maybe worth a risk later in the draft to try, but not in the top 10 rounds where the signing counts against the draft pool.

  42. I am surprise at this college numbers they aren’t that good. Plus I think he is a junior. I thinking maybe this is one of those low ball offers take it or go back to school. For 6 round pick, don’t see much projection in this college kid.

    1. it is just so silly of you to be so sure about the quality of a prospect whom you have never seen. just let it play out and then judge the results. it takes several years to tell the quality of a draft class.

      1. Plus, even “poor” draft classes have yielded stars in later rounds. You never know how prospects will develop. I’m gonna give Johnny A the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

  43. viagain If you know me I like to see them play. But when have no video. and aren’t in top 500 that is a concern, sure I can be 100 percent wrong. wont be the first time. weak draft or not, when mlb doesn’t have data on a 5th round pick , doesn’t that seem odd?

    1. is it a mild concern? yeah maybe. but it doesn’t mean a ton. Most of the big national scouting outfits see these kids outside the top 100 once, maybe twice. Sometimes they see them very early in the season. The actual team scouts are a bit more diligent and tend to check back on players more. So its definitely possible that a kid in HS made a major jump in stuff during his Sr. season and the national guys didn’t get a chance to see him at the end of the season.

    2. No, if a team scout uncovers a diamond in the rough you keep it quiet.

      I am sure that if I was a scout and saw someone take a huge leap during the season the first thing I would do is make sure BA knows about him so that every team can come back to check him out.

    3. Thier are other teams that reached the Braves, Yankee ‘s etc this draft because weakness of it makes teams scouting area wider.the Cubs drafted a player that’s 5 “8” 175 pds in the 4th that’s a reach. I do agree not having info or video makes it tough I to question why take a ss so high he would be there later. Plus he .315 avg which is not really that good. I think Boras has to do with it.

    1. Bj go play in your softball league with Larry Greene , Anthony Hewitt, Lou collier and all the your other boys you defend Reuben with.

      1. All of you stop. No one is going to convince the other. So stop trying. Some people want to read about the players picked.

      2. yup. total defense up there. you and roccom make a great power duo. your stupidity far surpasses anyone else’s.

      3. as you reply with the same thing again and again. I’m done with you. obvious troll is obvious.

      4. Yup, both were Wolever/Arbuckle decisions…and if you look at Arbuckle’s run in KC, it hasn’t been that great there either.

        I mean, Arbuckle was obviously an Asst GM but he had nothing to do with scouting or drafting in 2008.

      5. Edit to above: That should clearly read “Amaro was obviously an Asst GM but clearly had nothing to do with…” in case the obvious typo wasn’t obvious.

    2. when it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck and looks like a duck, it must be a duck.

      just stating facts. do a little research. you would be better off.

    3. We should all follow you bj. Tell me one player I was wrong on? that I posted on here? you sound like Larry with his stats. never wrong. proved him wrong on untouchable prospects, Romus is even starting to see that. Told people this Phillies team is worst team in baseball. before season and romus show me stats, and others. so far they are what second worst record? when dom brown was hot told you he had hole in his swing and lack of bat speed was I wrong? Told people Franco is a good fielder and will adjust and how he has improve over the guy I saw earlier in year last year. See bj I actually watch the sport. not like you and larry and look at stats in the minors and say that’s a great player. But why defend myself to a moron like you. see you moron. keep on thinking you know this game.

      1. one thing is clear, I know how to put a proper sentence together. on that, you fail miserably.

        I don’t know where you are coming up with half this stuff. I can do the same thing but I’m not going to do so. please, just educate yourself better instead of throwing stupid barbs out there.

        1. FWIW guys, I know that James gets really annoyed by this sort of pointless back and forth. At least show him a modicum of respect for all the effort he put into creating this site and keeping it going for the last decade by maybe toning it down a bit.

          I mean, you’ve both got strong opinions and that’s great (being a fan is all about passion) but maybe just take a deep breath and realize you might just have to agree to disagree?

          Your choice of course but its not really helping anything to keep running into each other full speed.

      2. Rocco: You don’t need my support, but I just wanted you to know I am in your corner. I think you have a pretty good understanding of the game as well as strong opinions to which you are entitled. To hell with those who don’t want you to express your opinion.

    4. For next year’s draft, we need to get roccom and Bryan into the war room with a copy of the BA 500 so they can call out the next name on the list when the Phillies’ pick comes around. (I’ll even pass the hat to raise the money we would need to pay the person we hire to help them read the list.)

  44. Gilbert I have no idea what he throws watching his video whatever his breaking was it moves alot.the hs lefty has really good stats. There really not much power in this draft so getting that 1st baseman with power wasn’t really A reach. His scouting report sounds a little like Hopkins.

  45. Luke Leftwich 6-3 210 JR. RHP Wofford. 7-2 4.25 ERA 16 apps (14 starts). 28 BB and 114K’s in 89 IP. He did hit 11 batters and opponents hit .251 against him.

    1. Rocco is the confluence of what Gillick said Almarez is not so its only natural that Rocco doesn’t like any of these picks.

      1. dmar just concern over the lack of info by mllb on these guys. I know only two or three might ever see the major in our whole trade. just hope this guy knows what he is doing. Like the first pick that kid has bad speed and a great stroke from the video I saw.

        1. I get it. It gives me some pause too but I will try to not over react one way or the other.

          1. When you hit onto my link scroll to top right of the page it says Wofford CC in Arizona which Leftwich is from Arizona. I don’t know 2 Wofford schools I guess.

    1. Now that’s a old time Phillies pick. best power in the draft. but instead of Round 1, they take him in Round 8.

      This year is different chaps.

  46. Pickett sounds like someone who would be a nice addition if they can sign him. I hope they can go overslot here.

  47. Greg Pickett 6-4 215 OF from Aurora CO. Signed with Miss. State. BA has him as #203. Said to be power hitter. Bats L and Throws R.

    1. Geez Tim not doing too well with the info here today are we? Wofford in AZ now the wrong kid completely, esp being that the states the play HS in are basically as far away from each other as you can get.

      1. We’re talking Luke Leftwich who was born in Arizona . When I scrolled down real fast Pikett looked like Pritt. The it was changed to Pickett. I know where Wofford is I went passed it once, Plus there on the Ncaa Bracket a lot . The forest away they could be is 7900 miles . Nice too see again

  48. Maybe this was the overslot pick they were setting up with the earlier picks?? Best not to judge a mlb draft before you even get to pick 10!!!!

    1. Or even 5-6 years later. Hell, we can just barely begin to really grade the drafts from 2007-2009. Take 2007 for example. We took Travis d’Arnaud with our 2nd pick (Round 1s – #37). I would personally judge that as a great pick regardless of how he pans out for the Mets (which looks to be quite nicely if he can ever stay healthy) as he was the key piece that got us Halladay. Sure, Drabek was part of the deal but d’Arnaud was the sticking point (unless we wanted to give up the untouchable (at the time) Dom Brown) for Toronto. DeFratus was the only other possible legit MLB player we got out of that draft. If you recall, our “top” pick that year was a Joe Savery…who, at the time, seemed like a good pick. Top arm out of Rice, fell due to a previous injury but was supposedly healthy…all in all, seemed like a good gamble at #19 overall. Hindsight being 20/20, we could have got any of the following: Rick Porcello (27), Todd Frazier (34), Josh Donaldson (48), Jordan Zimmermann (67), Giancarlo Stanton (76), Freddie Freeman (78). That is unfair to the FO of course as Savery was a good pick on paper back then and ranked higher than most of the ones I listed (other than Porcello who I believe fell due to signability concerns…that could be wrong but it’s what comes to mind for him).

      But basically, the point is, its impossible to say what this draft will mean today, tomorrow, or even 2 years from now as baseball players take forever to develop even when they are good. Hell, for all we know, Crawford (who looks to be as sure a thing as sure things can be right now) could completely implode in AAA or even the Majors when he’s called up. The history of baseball is scattered with the corpses of “sure thing” prospects that simply couldn’t hack it in the show. Matt LaPorta, Brett Wallace, etc come to mind there.

      1. I think Savery was viewed as an iffy pick and I was very disappointed we took him at 19, but then I tend to be very pessimistic about shoulder injuries.

        1. This is correct. Savery was a boom/bust pick at 19. If fully healthy, he would have gone much higher, but nobody knew if he was fully recovered. And he never did recover his velocity.

          Porcello was a top 5 talent, who was asking for the moon (and a Boras client). He fell all the way to the Tigers because of that, and they were willing to meet his demands. I doubt he was even on the Phillies board.

          And Stanton was Larry Greene. Power all day, but nobody could predict whether or not he’d actually be able to hit. It was a risky pick in the second round, and the Marlins were rewarded for it. He could just as easily have flamed out.

        2. Selecting a pitcher from TCU or Rice was/ and is pure idiocy and the Phillies paid the price for that decision.

  49. Saw him play 2x. Undeniable talent, but even better work ethic as most around him have said. From the eye test, his power is the real deal and looks like he can stick in the OF.

  50. For all the moaners. Checked draft tracker on MLB Tigers 2nd round pick #65 had no video and no scouting report. Chill folks!

  51. Mark Laird 6-2 180 JR OF LSU. BA #309. Said to have ++speed. Stole 23 of 29 attempts. Hit .323. Had more walks than K’s. I thought 10% for both. Not much power. Had no errors in the OF.

  52. If they can get the Pickett kid signed and then sign the huge 16 yr old Dominican kid Ortiz, that would be two big power bats added to the lower system.

  53. I think it was a pretty solid top 10 rounds so far, some very apparent present skills, some potential lottery tickets, and some solid college signs. I expect to see a risk or two taken in the first 5 rounds tomorrow whether it be HS kids or Juco talent, and we should still have some pool money to play with to make good offers.

  54. dcwildcat, you are always logical and rational, and I enjoy reading your posts. The more I read about the top 2 picks, the more I like them, not that that means much relative to their success. But, I am happy for no other reason than it appears that hitting was a priority and we got guys who can really hit. We can hope on a future LF and a future 2B, and some lottery tickets to maybe cash.

  55. I like the Phillies new focus on hitters. Hopefully a guy or two pans out! In two years the phillies will be a fun team to watch again and perhaps we will have a good farm system too!

    1. Yes you can. If you have spent less than the combined allocations for the picks you sign in rounds 1 through 10, then you can use that money to exceed the $100K slot for rounds 11 and above. Actually, you also are allowed to go to 104.99% of your allocation, without paying other than a financial penalty. That is an extra $350K for the Phillies to spend.

      1. Looked it up. Overages past round 10 count as round 1-10 spending, so it’s not much of a strategy anymore. College seniors in rounds 4 and 10 won’t save all that much money anyway; I’m guessing they’ll need it to sign the Boras client at #1.

        Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs on Day 1:

        The Phillies did a nice job of taking what the board gave them, pivoting away from their strategy in the past of taking upside at all costs and selecting some of the top remaining players on my board at both picks (Randolph, Kingery).

  56. Phillies first round pick in the 2016 first year player draft is Jason Groome LHP IMG Academy. They WILL go with the local product next year. Have wanted him since I saw him as a 15 year old. A year early but this is who I’m praying we get.

      1. Well if Amaro actully does his dang job and trades away any veteran with talent we should end up with the 1st overall selection. We are at 2 right now.

      2. And he’s going to be a top 5 pick where he WILL get millions. His Dad actually said (and I was right next to him when he said it) “he won’t step foot on a college campus. Granted this was when he was only 15 but the talent was already there (throwing 91-93 WITH EASE and being as high as 97). There would be no reason for him to go to school being a top 5 guy, too risky.

      1. Tim are you asking me? Groome is effortless low to mid 90’s with solid secondary offerings. He actually is being talked about w me upside then Aiken before the injury

    1. I made a more detailed post earlier on a bunch of the guys left on the top available list, but the gist is that they are all either asking for too much money, or are going to schools like vandy or Stanford that are known for keeping their recruits.

      1. What is the reason kids turn down good money to go to Vanderbilt. I never heard that one before. Sanford hitters scare me anyway. just wondering about Vanderbilt. I know its a great program and school, but if you get a chance to go pro with money, I would think kids would want to start there pro career with the money and college fund, from the team.

        1. I don’t think its just that kids turn down good money to go to vandy, I think its a combination of the prestige of the program and the fact that they are very judicious in their awarding of scholarships. They usually only give them out to kids they are sure are coming to school.

    2. Prior to the draft, Hooper stated that he was going to honor his college commitment (to UCLA as I recall). Apparently everyone believes him.

      1. I would think the small UCL wouldn’t matter considering he had it replaced right? The tendon that they use is actually in your wrist. If you flex your wrist toward your body you’ll be able to see the tendon popped thru your skin slightly. It gets cut out and put in place of the UCL. The surgery is actually pretty interesting to watch.

        1. I am wondering if a small UCL is the reason for an early tear and a stronger tendon would make a relapse less likely.

          It could be draft rumors but I find it interesting. If they did MRI’s on pitchers could they check for this. The player could be a higher injury risk down the line.

          Just curious.

          1. to answer a few of your questions, it is definitely possible to have a shorter than average UCL. The UCL is the ligament that attaches the end of your upper arm bone (humerus) to the ulna (forearm bone on the pinky side). As with any other part of the body, its completely determined by genetics. Some people have longer ligaments which creates more separation between the bones, some people have shorter ligaments. On its own, this doesn’t necessarily predispose someone to injury, but it could definitely effect that strength and mobility of the joint. Now its also possible to have variations in the thickness and strength of the ligament purely from a genetic basis. Some people naturally have very strong thick ligaments that don’t tear easily, and some have weaker strength and are at higher risk. Medically, its impossible to predict. You can see length and thickness on an MRI, but that doesn’t necessarily correlate to strength. Think of it as rope, you could have a thick piece of fishermans rope or a thin piece of nylon twine. Its instinct to say the thick heavy rope is stronger, but it all depends on the individual fibers inside the rope. You just cant tell. Now to address the surgery, there are a number of variations on ligament surgeries. As suggested above, its become common to use pieces of ligament from the wrist or leg. Its also common to use cadaver ligaments. The problem is that there are risks with each procedure such as rejection. In any case, many believe implanted ligaments are never truly as strongly anchored and leave an increased chance of re-injury. And finally, Eric D, to your point, It does matter still about the length of his UCL, because even if they provided a longer replacement ligament during the surgery, he has gone 18 years of his life with a certain feel and strength in his elbow. Altering the laxity of the joint could change the functionality of the elbow mechanics irregardless of the ligament strength. It could put more stress on other parts of the arm, it could change the angle and spin he creates while throwing, There are a million minute functions in each joint, and if you change one part, it could potentially throw everything else into disarray. Now how this pertains to Aiken, its anyones guess. He could bounce back and be as good or better, he could struggle with rehab and reconditioning of the joint and take a while to come back, or he could never be the same again. That’s for better minds than mine to guess at.

  57. Between Kingsley and Laird the Phillies looked for speed . There’s a couple of local players that are still out there I hope the Phillies Harang trade stock is dropping like a rock.

    1. I think he should have been moved as soon as possible (not saying they haven’t tried, I mean I have no inside knowledge so they very well could have). The reason why I say this is bc I really don’t think that he was going to get a big time prospect for him even if he continued to pitch the way he did in April and early May. He’s what? 37 and isn’t exactly known for the type of pitching he did early on . . Teams would be weary of him (IMHO) no matter when you trade him so do it ASAP and while he was at his height. If that makes sense.

  58. This season is going to be a nightmare when the Phillies trade Hamels and Harang. They should give Anothy Vasquez who is doing well to come all the way back from a Brain tumor .

  59. Greg Pickett‏@GregPick25
    I’ve agreed to a contract. I can’t wait to be apart of the @Phillies organization!

    There you have it…Greg Pickett already signed! I’m already very happy with this draft!

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