138 thoughts on “2015 Draft Discussion: Day One

  1. #10, #48, #83…These favorable draft positions and next year’s (likely to be among the first 3-4) will set the tone for the franchise to dig out of the mud. The now likely 3: Nola, Crawford, Quinn in addition to Franco are the basis that need additions from the top talents showing early in each draft including the following choices after these top 3.

    For those who believe that “the best player available” is likely to be influenced by need, what positions need the most attention…….?

    Having this thread will indulge we hard core fans.

    Thanks!

  2. Here are Tyler Stevenson stats https://new.berecruited.com/athletes/1211222 this page has him listed as a first baseman, catcher, pitcher.he had 3 home runs last yr 4 this yr. Only has this yr to go on was not in Cape cod or the circuit games other then future games last yr he made second team . He was hurt beginning of yr his team lost too Parkview 10 -0 in a future games game on the 4th of this month.

  3. I’m glad this is finally here. This draft seems a lot more unpredictable than most. It looks like Stephenson can go 1 or as low as 14. Pretty crazy.
    My prediction for Phils 1st pick is Ian Happ. I think they go for a polished bat. Of course, the real key will be if he can stick at 2nd or not. In this draft I’m willing to take that gamble.

    1. I also like Happ. Still 20 and played three seasons against colleg players older then him and did quite well.
      Stevenson concerns me a little…exactly two years younger then Happ and does and has played against more HS players younger then him.
      BP did a study on age relevance at draft-time and can be very revealing for late teens.

      1. I think Tucker if he’s there, then Stephenson if he’s there but I think they’ll be gone and we’ll get Happ. Happ can definitely hit and they’ll put him back to 2B.

  4. This draft with its low expectation will be hard to gauge. Teams want bargains at top, so here is my quess on our pick. dillion tate, or catcher betts. I think happ goes more in the twenty range,

    1. Agree that surprises are likely at the top of this draft, but I doubt that Tate falls to the Phillies at #10. If he does, he would be hard to pass up.

      IMO, Happ seems more likely to go in the top 15 than Betts does. Even if Happ doesn’t stick at 2B, he’s not a bad pick at #10, as a polished college hitter. If Happ can stick at 2B, he’s an excellent pick at #10.

      1. Happ concerns me. He reminds me of Cody Asche. Even their college stats are similar. Both guys had very pedestrian freshman and sophomore seasons, but then did better (not great though) in their junior year. I don’t know. I’d stay away from Happ. If Kyle Tucker, Daz Cameron or Andrew Benintendi are still on the board at # 10, I’d take one of them before Happ.

    1. He looked OK. Like I said that kid toribio, was incredible. His arm strength and accuracy was crazy. He also swung the bat!!!

  5. Buyer Beware Dept. Scott Boros is “advising” the following top draft picks: Cameron, Randolph, DJ Stewart, Funkhouser, Kapriellian, Everett, Justin Hooper and Molar.

    1. Cameron’s camp has already indicated that he will not sign for less than $5 million. Randolph could also be a tough sign. Haven’t heard about the others you list, though the college guys (Funkhouser and Kapriellan) don’t have a ton of leverage. But, yeah, I doubt the Phillies draft a high school kid who is represented by Boros.

      1. Yeah, those two things tell me that if Cameron drops, he won’t be taken by the Phils.

    2. I would think the Phillies are aware of this. Not sure about their relationship with Scott Boras anymore.
      Not sure if this means anything.
      But also in the back of my mind is that Dom Brown is represented by Scott boras and is arb eligible next season -2016.
      Perhaps there is a connection between his playing in LHV vs CBP …then again he is not ready to be brought up according to Ruben.

      1. I’m thinking they are hoping Brown goes on a tear in AAA some where between now and the trade deadline so they can flip him for another piece.

        My aim tonight would be on another front line starter that can move quickly to the big club

        1. he would be an upgrade over the entire outfield, not to mention he’s played better defense of late with multiple outfield assists. it’s amazing that the FO has continued to let him rot in AAA. This dude was an Allstar 2 years ago & yet they don’t give him playing time during a rebuilding season it absolutely blows my mind.

          1. I’d rather have him starting in the OF than Asche. At least Brown had that one stretch. Asche has shown nothing at the plate.

          2. That is what happens when you dog it and show no desire to work at a major league level.

            0 home runs in LHV? Is there any power left at 27?

            Someone needs to ask Brown where his game went because it is not with him now.

            RIght now Brown’s value is a failed prospect, nothing more.

          3. Brown is just awful and has done nothing in AAA to make him worth of promotion. “He was an All-Star” has to be one of the dumbest arguments I’ve ever read on this or any other site. He’s been TERRIBLE in AAA all year and he was awful last year in the Majors.

      2. I would hope and I’m sure the Phillies know about all the “advisor” relationships. I was posting this info because I thought it might mean something to those that wonder about agent/organization relationships. Didn’t see anything written here about who might be representing which prospects.

    3. Of course we pick a Boras client. A New Age is Dawning with the new Scouting Director.

      Seriously, I liked Nikorak, Stevenson and Clark in any order but Randolph seems fine. Will he be a 3b at some point?

  6. We know they want an advanced hitter, so in my mind that is either happ or benitetti (cf from ark). Unless the early picks are all crazy underslots like stephenson Randolph and others. There are ways we could get a Tucker, but that seems less likely than us getting happ

    1. Also an underslot deal for Aiken anywhere from 8-15 wouldn’t surprise me either. Obviously as long as his medicals check out.

          1. Yes his medicals were made available. So I guess we will find out what they say from where he gets drafted tonight. We should remember that if he was healthy he would again go 1-1.

            1. *partially available.

              I read some articles this weekend where not all information was released. The information that was released was piecemeal.

              There are rumors he may have a small UCL.

  7. I don’t know enough about any of these guys – or how to project HS and college picks – to make a meaningful comment. That said, I want the guy who projects to be the best big league player – period. I am encouraged by Almarez’s comments that he will be taking the same approach and I’m also happy to hear that he’s looking for the best baseball player and not necessarily the best athletes. Amen to that, brother – I’ve had enough of Jeff Jackson, and Anthony Hewitt, and Greg Golson, and Lou Collier and now, perhaps Cord Sandberg. It’s cool to take a guy who’se a great athlete if there’s a possibility he’ll develop – but I’m not thrilled about those picks until the middle or later rounds.

    1. Here’s a secret. 99.99% of baseball fans who post on message boards are in the exact same boat. That doesn’t stop them from pretending to know more than a baseball team that has a staff of dozens of scouts that go watch these guys.

      I just read what the experts have to say and form an opinion. Which means, I really really like the Randolph pick. I like drafting for hit tool.

  8. First priority: an achievable in majors 30+ homers outfielder or 1st baseman. For those agreeing, who by name might that be?

    1. Looks like with conversion to LF they saw this need…potentially one 30+ HR slot filled…thank you!

  9. I don’t think the Phils have hit bottom yet. That will happen next year. So, the Phils should have great opportunities in both the 2016 and 2017 drafts.

    The Phils should also do OK in this year’s draft with the new scouting director, but the class is a little weak.

    The Phils do not make bad decisions all of the time. The hiring of Almaraz may be a good move. I always remind myself, however, that as long as Giles, Montgomery, and Amaro are involved, the Phils will not make enough good decisions to bring back a winner.

    1. Agreed all the way. I’m hoping for 2 terrible seasons in order to secure back-to-back top 3 picks in what will most likely be stronger drafts. Those picks, plus pieces attained for Hamels, Revere, Harang, and hopefully Papelbon should make us a top tier system, and with money to use on quality FA’s.

      Now if only we could overhaul the front office for the big club……

      1. I am a Cubs fan, and I do watch the Cubs. One day, however, maybe in 2022, there will be a showdown between the Cubs and Phillies in the playoffs; at that time, I will root for the Phillies. In the mean time, i.e., the next six or seven years, I’ll watch and enjoy the Cubs in the playoffs and, perhaps, the World Series.

  10. I have liked everything I have read on Happ, and think he will pay fine at 2B. He is the type of hitter they need. Newman, also, even though Crawford has the SS job. Benintendi is 3rd on my list. I still think they go hitter 1st.

    1. Happ is a true switch-hitter with a hit tool.
      Plus, he is still 20-years old….until August.
      Not sure why all reports do not list him connected to the Phillies.
      Perhaps 2nd base is not an alternative with him, that could be an underlying reason for , what seems to be , their aloofness.

  11. Kiley McDaniel’s FanGraphs Final Mock:
    10. Phillies – Tyler Stephenson, C, Kennesaw Mountain HS (GA) …..I’m told it’s a bat here and it’s either Stephenson or Cornelius Randolph, with Happ a darkhorse.

    1. Randolph looks more like a late teens pick. But maybe they think he’s another Crawford.

      1. MLB’s Draft report on Cornelius Randolph:
        Cornelius Randolph | Rank: 19
        School: Griffin HS (Ga.) Year: Senior Position: SS Age: 18 DOB: 6/2/1997 Bats: L Throws: R Height: 6’1″ Weight: 190 lb. Commitment: Clemson

        Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 55 | Field: 40 | Overall: 55
        Griffin (Ga.) High has produced a pair of big league infielders in Jeff Treadway and Tim Beckham, and it may have a third on the way in Randolph. He’s Griffin’s best prospect since Beckham and profiles as more of an impact hitter than the No. 1 overall pick in the 2008 Draft has become.
        Randolph has the tools and approach to hit for power and average. He offers bat speed, strength and patience from the left side of the plate. He uses the entire field and has better pitch recognition than most high schoolers.
        Currently a shortstop, Randolph will move to a less challenging position at the next level. The Clemson recruit has good hands but lacks the quickness to play in the middle infield. His arm hasn’t been as strong this spring, when he has dealt with biceps tendinitis, but it and his bat would profile well at third base.

        ……third base?…maybe 2nd base.

        1. Randolph is the type of pick that got the previous guy fired, No way they take this kid unless, they are trying to save money for later hs picks. lacks quickness what is that? not a strong arm. a real reach.

          1. Why? He is LITERALLY the exact opposite of what we used to pick. Or did you make that assumption because he’s a black HS player?

  12. This won’t happen, but how about this. If you truly believe that this year’s draft is weak, and next year’s will be better, could you take a pick and low-ball the offer, and take some shots later in the draft at strong college commits? Make your offer the minimum that is mandated, and if the player refuses to sign, you get a compensatory pick next year. If he does sign, use the savings to go for ‘unreachables’.

    I would not call this an ethical application of the rules. But, if there were a handful of ‘can’t miss’ kids next year, could you rule out a team picking in the top 3 for doing this?

    1. I get what your saying but I totally disagree with it. First of all there’s no guarantee next year’s draft will be better. We think it will but as we’ve seen with injuries and the like there’s no way of knowing.
      Secondly, there will be some good players from this years draft. It’s up to the teams to find them. If you’re gonna trust the Phils with the 11th pick next yr you may as well trust them with 10th pick this yr. That’s just my 2 cents.

    1. Not sure I get that pick. Surely better be an under slot but I’m not certain it is

      1. Simple; it’s all about his hit tool. It’s an anti-toolshed pick. Not a great athlete, but someone whose calling card should be hitting.

        1. Yeah this is better than a toolshed pick. I would have been sick if we had to hear about another kid with all the potential in the world who is a great athlete but sucks at baseball.

    1. one of the guys on MLB .com compared his swing to Tony Gywnn (hopefully he meant Sr.) from his lips to God’s ears

  13. Not that it’s anything close to a scouting report, but I pulled up OOTP and checked out what happened to Cornelius in my game. 9th round pick (259 overall) by Cleveland in 2015, released in April of 2016, currently playing for the Lincoln Saltdogs 27/19/27 ratings on 1-100 scale with little potential to get better.

    1. FWIW My OOTP 2014 Phillies got to the post season with only the addition of Rusney Castillo. Cliff Lee is great when he doesn’t get hurt.

      1. Not saying it’s an actual prediction, but I was killing time between draft picks checking on guys through OOTP16. Out of the top 10 Randolph was the only one who wasn’t a 2 1/2 star potential or higher and the only one who wasn’t a 1st rounder in the game as well.

  14. worst case scenario happened really thought one of Tate, Fulmer, Tucker, Benientendi, Happ, jay, would fall. Daz not getting picked cost one of those players falling.

    1. My dad told me the other day he couldn’t believe there were nine worse teams than the Phils last year. Amazingly, there were.

    2. I think most expected Happ to be available at #10. The others were all long shots to last until #10, except maybe Benintendi. Not sure it would have mattered though; the Phillies apparently really like Randolph and his hit tool.

    3. Spot on Joey. Another kid demanding multi-millions for never playing a professional game. Cam screwed the pooch

    1. He’s not toolsy enough for me. I’d much rather have a “great athlete” with a questionable hit tool and lots of rough edges and/or “limited baseball experience”, etc etc.

    2. 55 hit, 55 power is good, but in LF it’s not so impressive. This draft just did not go our way; I don’t know if anyone else would have been better.

      1. Yeah, I was hoping Randolph could play 2B or even 3B. Still like the pick, though; as reputedly one of the best pure hitters in the draft.

  15. I thiught the phils had changed their draft approach, but it looks like the’ve stayed the same.

    Being drafted #1 doesn’t assure success as every team and especially the phils have found out. Jeff Jackson, Larry Greene, and others being recent examples.

    I’m sure they know what their doing better than us (nit really so sure), but I think their need in in college level OF’s and mire pitching (can never have enough.

    I have lkked Cam Perkins swing since the draft 2 yrs ago and especiakly his low strikeout ratio.

    Good luck to them all.

    1. Randolph is not the typical Phillies toolshed pick, so not sure why you say they haven’t changed their draft approach. The reports on Randolph is that he is maybe the best pure hitter in the draft and has an advanced approach at the plate. That hardly fits the mold of a typical Phillies high draft pick.

      I like the pick, but would like it more if Randolph can play 2B or 3B, and doesn’t have to move to the outfield.

  16. Looks like he will start in Williamsport and played LF last year.

    http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/johnny-almaraz-cornelius-randolph-phillies-draft-best-high-school-bat-country

    Almaraz was excited to add an impact bat to the Phillies’ farm system and sees Randolph as a future No. 3 or No. 4 hitter.

    Randolph had been on the Phillies’ radar for a while. They scouted him last summer and saw him play left field, and before the draft, went down to Atlanta to hold a private workout with him.

    Was the plan all along to pick a bat and not a pitcher?

    “There was a breaking point where we felt that — the way I operate, I believe that unless [the pitcher] has potential to be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, I’m not going to forfeit a third starter for a strong, impact bat,” Almaraz said. “I’ll always have a tendency to favor that.”

    The Phillies will have internal discussions about where to start Randolph, but Almaraz said he would probably begin with Williamsport, the Phillies’ short-season affiliate in the New York-Penn League.

      1. I’m not sure that Nola is just a 3. his peak years should be a #2. His control makes everything tick up a little bit

    1. I loved his interview answers – no high picks for a pitcher who projects to no better than a 3 – I couldn’t agree more. Also it’s clear they are just looking for the best player – I again agree. Now let’s see how the picks do.

  17. Getting close to second pick. Any thoughts? Preferences? Wish lists?

    How does someone get Daz Cameron signed now? How is he better off now as compared to getting top 10 slot money?

    1. Scott Kingery, 2B of U. of Arizona. Seemed to be ranked higher than where the Phils got him.

    1. I got a call from a friend who has a son that tried out for Arizona as a walk on. The son said that he liked Kingery better than Newman. Rumors were Kingery could go late 20’s or early 30’s.

  18. Eric Longenhagen longenhagen @

    Great pick by Philly. Kingery can hit, run and play defense.

  19. Now that’s a good combination! So…Hoskins, Kingery, Crawford and Franco as the infield. Randolph in LF. Quinny CF. TBD: RF and Catcher. Maybe fill in via trade market…plus a few pitchers. Maybe pitchers in the next 2-3 rounds.

    1. nice lineup if franco, randolph and hoskins can hit with enough power. how about quinn in rf and tocci in cf who supposedly already has major league-caliber defensive skills

  20. If you can’t seem to ENJOY future possibilities, why not take a moment to stop and realize just how much of a great leap forward these 2 picks represent? IF the Randolph pick does reach the talent evaluations (i.e.,best HS hitter in the draft -?- with power on it way and ticketed for LF)…that is a proper focus and excellent choice for a team starving for outfielders. With SS supposedly spoken for, the 2nd base position is wide open following Utley…Getting a top of the order (OBA/BA) 2nd baseman who also is an excellent fielder and has base-path speed is nothing but EXCELLENT!

    Pardon my enthusiasm, but I think their new scouting master shows pure “genius” w these two picks…

    Hope he’ll man that position for years to come………

    1. Yeah, the more I read about these picks, the more I love them. I also love that, with Randolph, one of his big selling points is outstanding plate discipline. Assuming he was the best available player on their board (and, whether you agree with that evaluation or not, it does appear that THEY believed this), I like the approach. He appears to be athletic enough to develop into a competent outfielder defender and he has a plus hit tool, strong plate discipline, is said to be a hard worker and has power potential. That’s precisely the type of player I was hoping they would draft. And I love this approach instead of going for a safe college arm with #3 upside – they don’t need that! If they have to get that type of player, they can get that easily in free agency. Don’t forget, with the attendance potential and the TV contract, this is still a big market team. Moderate holes and even big holes can be filled in free agency.

    2. When Larry Greene was picked he was called “The best raw power bat in the draft”…just to put it in perspective.

  21. I have always felt with hitters park in philly that it should be bombs-away like it was few years ago. You will get no complaints from me by beefing up hit tool for their system.

  22. I hated they reached for this kid at ten, but he wasn’t getting passed the Yankees or pirates according to reports, So at ten with no chance he gets to 48 then if you think he is good enough I take him. I had a problem that he really doesn’t have a position, and might not have enough power for outfield. I just watched tape on his swing, Now I understand why, even though I have read this before about cord sandberg, walding, and other with hit tool, this kids swing is so quick, I just don’t see him not being a hitter, nice fluid swing imo with a little lift to it, he really could be a good hitter from what I saw on tape. hope I am right about him. but he really has no position, he should imo start at Williamsport, with his bat I don’t think he struggles much there,

    1. rocco…very good analysis. LF seems to be the choice for him defensively and he has played there before. But he could get off to a slow start against college pitchers in the NYP league.

  23. I’m pleased with both picks. I badly wanted to add a potential #3 hitter with the 10th pick and I love the fact that Almarez recognized the need to do that also. It seems like in Randolph we at least have a guy with the potential to be a #3 hitter, I’ll take that over a #3 starter. And Kingery looks like a fast moving 2B with high batting avg and speed combo and decent glove. I’ll take that too. I’ll slot both players pretty high with Randolph around 5, after Quinn and Eflin (I removed Franco, he’s not coming back), and Kingery around 20.

    Let’s get some more picks today. I’m pulling for upside guys over maxed out college guys though.

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