Open Discussion: Week of April 6th

Here’s an open discussion thread so the minor league posts don’t get cluttered with Phillies’ talk and other topics.

Let’s see, we have the Phillies openeing day roster, the acquisition of Dustin McGowan, and the Braves/Padres trade to talk about among any other subjects you want to bring up here.

 

169 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of April 6th

      1. Wow, didn’t know about the surgery. I knew he was DFA’d and a free agent, but assumed someone would pick him up.

        1. If he had heart surgery it would have been his second in the last ten years. The first was when he was in high school just before his junior year. But he went on to play baseball. Hope he is well.

  1. I was comparing the Padres/Braves trade to package of Pap & Revere.

    On one hand, Kimbrel is better than Pap. On the other BJ (Melvin) Upton is arguably the worst contract in baseball. I don’t see how you can even play that guy. At least Howard’s monster contract is only one more year and he can hit for 25 HRs. Revere, for his defensive flaws, is definitely a productive player at a far better contract.

    1. Hart saved $56 Million net pay roll in that deal and again acquired a quality SP prospect.

      I don’t really see from Preller’s side why he did that deal. Ok I get Kimbrel is the best in the game but why pay $56 million plus a good prospect when you could trade for a guy like Papelbon for a lot less.

      I think the moral of the story is if you want to shed dead money you need to put someone really good in the package. A very creative deal none the less.

    2. It’s a big understatement to say Kimbrel is merely better than Paps. Revere is the baseball equivalent of the tweener — lacks corner OF bat or CF glove (and arm). We didn’t give up a lot for Revere and he was a cheaper and more promising kid back then. It was still believed that he was a decent CF and that he would mature into a .350+ OBP.

      1. If you assume, like I do, that Upton is worthless, then Kimbrel costs $22 mil/year. you would rather have them than Pap & Revere and $8 mil? No way

        1. Pap and Revere weren’t going to get you Wisler that’s not what I was saying or thinking. Maybe just Paroubeck which I would gladly have taken if that deal was on the table.

  2. 61-101. Hamels goes 9-16 with a 2.39 ERA, Dom Brown homers 30 times, and Revere’s slugging percentage exceeds Howard’s.

    1. I don’t think they’re quite that bad, but they aren’t going over 70 wins either. I think 66 wins. Hamels may well go 9-16, he was almost that lopsided on W-L in 2013, but he won’t have nearly that low an ERA. I’ll guess 3.60

    1. I love your optimism and hope you are right but man, I can’t see it. I know it’s just one game, but that was a super depressing opening day. Then if you are trading some of your pieces with value – Hamels – you just make your team worse.

      1. You must start the rebuild wholeheartedly. Trading Hamels at some point in the next 3 months has to be a part of the long-term strategic plan in wanting to contend in 3/4 years.
        Besides Hamels, Paps, and maybe Chooch should also be in play for movement.
        Look what John Hart is doing in Atlanta. He wants to compete with the Nats, Mets and Marlins in 3 years or so, realizing that is not going to happen in 2015 or 2016, .

        1. The question is to be moved for what return. We will naver know what is being offered but if what you are being offered is Victorino/Adams/Broxton and org filler minor leaguers trading Hamels, Paps, et.al. doesn’t really advance the rebuild.

          1. Not trading them slows the rebuild.
            And no one actually knows what is being offered at this point, pure speculation.
            All I have read from Boston sources was four players are not going to be involved in any deal with Hamels….Betts, Bogaerts, Ed Rodriguez and Swihart….they have a half-dozen others who could be in play to some extent…Owens, Barnes, Margot, Devers, Cecchini, or Coyle.

            1. Trading hamels for lesser prospects, just puts more money in the owners pockets. A trade for hamels must bring a power bat in return, any positon. none of the players mention are that. I rather pay hamels and keep him here, at least we get to see one good player ever fourth day. I wouldn’t give into boston and take less. no way, no how, it doesn’t help us to get marginal prospects back for a ace. we have a lot of marginal players now.

            2. Hamels should get you at least one top flight asset in return and the deals they were offered were just plain poor. The Red Sox tried to get the national media to apply pressure to make a minus trade for bad assets but that did not work.

              The Red Sox wanted to dump a bunch of A level arms on us that did not have any upside. Bad trades slow the rebuild even more.

              Now I doubt they are in the Hamels race because they dropped $20 million on a number three pitcher.

            3. rocco…….Owens, Margot, Devers and Cecchini are not marginal prospects. The positional playes, exclude Owens, have a good chance to be just as good or better then Bogaerts or Betts….Swihart is still a minor league catcher.
              I would not hesitate for one moment if those four players were offered for Hamels…Owens, Ccchini , Margot and Devers

            4. I’m not arguing that the players you named aren’t quality. I think the point others are making is that you have to have a home run in return. Not trading Hamels doesn’t really slow down the rebuild. He’s not blocking anyone and doesn’t have a contract that prohibits the team from making more moves. It only slows them down because they don’t get prospects in return but if none of them pan out, it moves it to a crawl. A large market team should never be in full rebuild mode. The main focus should be on developing talent, but they can also reload in a sense most teams can’t. Well, that should be the case, but the Howard contract hamstrings them a little bit.

  3. David I just cant believe someone like you who follows this game. Would think this is a 76 win team. I thought you were more knowledgeable than that, especially on you post, which are really good

    1. I think people are way too negative about the team. When there is a massive amount of negativity regarding something you always go in the other direction.

      No matter how ‘smart’ the supposed experts are they are wrong 90% of the time.

      1. Let me answer you david. They have no outfield power, and bad defense, There third basemen is at best okay at third defensively, there first basemen stinks, cant run, field, or hit, There second basemen is good, there shortstop cant hit, and there catcher cant hit, so lets sum it up, no power, little speed, bad defense, ONE good starter, how in gods name are they going to win 70 games. They are terrible, and I mean bad, all they have is a good bullpen. sorry I am negative, because of what I see, not by what I read.

        1. You guys must have just started watching the Phillies because there have been some bad teams in the 80’s and 90’s and this team is nowhere near as bad as they were.

          People have this mindset that is antiquated with respect to the league. Nobody has a lot of power but power is unimportant. The Royals made it to the World Series and they hit the least amount of home runs in MLB.

          This is a pitchers league not a hitters league. They have decent balance from one through six. Is it ideal? Not by a longshot but they are not as horrible as everyone makes them out to be.

          Saying they are a 50 or 60 win team is not being objective.

          1. When people say power they have no idea about the concept.

            Last year the Royals hit 95 home runs and made the World Series. The Cardinals won their division with 105 home runs, next to last.

            4 teams averaged more than one home run a game.

            Here are the top 5 home run teams last year

            Baltimore – 211 won division 96 wins
            Colorado – 186 66 wins
            Houston – 177 70 wins
            Toronto – 163 83 wins
            Chicago Cubs – 157 73 wins

            1. OMG. how about there defense, speed, pitching they have nothing. david what happen to you? trying to defend this group is nuts.

          2. Their starting CF is a rookie that never played OF let alone CF. Their starting RF is a 5th OF. Their 1b is the worst defensive 1b in baseball and will be a bottom 5 offensive 1b. Chace is great but will only play 110 games. Their starting SS will struggle to break Mendoza. Chooch is good but is old. And their starting pitching is atrocious. A hodgepodge of injured and bad pitchers besides Hamels and maybe Buchannon. When Hamels is traded, this starting 5 will be the worst in baseball by far.

            This is a very bad team. And yes, I have been a fan since the 80’s.

            1. I have been a fan longer, and this, imo is the worst team they ever fielded. I rather have callison, Gonzalez, Covington in the outfield then this bunch. allen. wine taylor. in the infield then this team. look I will admit I am wrong, but to me this team will struggle to win 65 games even if they keep hamels.

          3. A decent balance 1 through 6. Do you mean their lineup? Are you kidding?
            – Revere is a low OB% guy with zero power
            – Herera is a rookie who was a low OB% guy with little power in minors
            – Chace is a stud that will play 110 games
            – Howard is a bottom 5 cleanup hitter in baseball.
            – Chooch is decent ob% but will not play more than 120 games
            – Sizemore is not good.

            This is not a lineup that will score runs.

            1. You forget one extremely important factor. There are a number of guys that may get traded. If they do not play well then they are not getting traded, hence the incentive to play well so that they can get traded.

            2. You are missing an important point…it doesn’t matter what their motivation is, they aren’t good players. Chace is the only good player and he does not want to get traded. I understand that it is opening day and you are excited, but your not making sense. This is a very bad lineup. Might be the lowest scoring team in baseball.

            3. If you want to summarize how bad this Phillies lineup is in one sentence it is this…The guy they are trying to dump by paying 85% of his salary (but still can’t dump) is their cleanup hitter.

  4. The mainstream media has piled on the team as being the worst ever, failed to trade Hamels for junk, and other items.

    When we look at the offseason they restocked the pitching at the AA and AAA levels with a number of good prospects.

    Revere and Herrera are a nice top of the order combo. Chase is fine in the three spot. Howard is Howard. Ruiz is a decent five spot hitter. The questions will be at the bottom of the lineup and can Franco have a solid start forcing the Phillies to call him up.

    I think a few guys will be traded as the season wears on restocking the farm system but in no way is the team as bad as the mainstream media is suggesting.

    1. I guess I would handicap the Phillies like some bettors handicapp the horses….not over their career finishes/numbers but how they finuished over their last 2/3 races/seasons.
      70 wins could be reached with Hamels all year.

  5. David, I agree with you on the National people and the “Hamels for nothing, but look at the money they are saving”, which is crap. But, as someone who has rooted for this team since 1960, I have to say that this is the least excitement I have ever had going into a season. I think very little of Revere and Dooby as pieces on a good team, think they have about 110 HRs worth of power, and are really boring to watch. There is not a young player here yet that is exciting, and I am ready for them to sell the team, hire a progressive GM, and start completely over.

    1. Not exciting but we knew that at the end of the offseason. Did anything change from November 1 to today? We knew where this squad was going and now the season has started.

      It has been said that some of the more negative clubhouse elements have been removed which makes sense because the last couple of seasons have had a poor clubhouse mix.

      I don’t think they will be nearly as bad as people expect.

      1. ‘negative clubhouse elements have been removed’.
        So are you suggesting Rollins and Byrd were part of that issue?

    2. Agreed. It’s the least excitement I’ve ever had going into a season (some Mets teams I watched in the late 70s were about on par with this team and those teams were horrendous). This is not only a horrendous team they are inconceivably boring. They were unwatchable last year and this year it will be worse – at least for the first few months or so. Even in the late 90s, the team had some good young players that were fun to watch and they scored a little bit. This is the place in the round where arrogance meets incompetence.

      1. I can’t agree. The major league team will stink, but we had just about the whole time from 1952 to 1962 as total frustration. The period 1995 until the $ committed to CBP were also worse. We now have an organization which can afford to spend, so a turnaround is in sight this time. 2015 will be a lousy year at the major league level for Phillies fans, but we can watch the turnaround begin. I say this as someone who isn’t satisfied with the pace of change thus far. I wanted Castillo signed, Howard moved for virtually nothing, Papelbon and Ruiz moved for something. I am hoping Utley is traded at the deadline and, although not upset that Hamels hasn’t been traded yet, would like a good trade involving him at the deadline. I want RAJ gone when his contract expires and don’t want to ever see Monty quoted again in the media. My biggest current gripe is that Howard remains our starting 1B — yes I know he hit a 2B today, I still want him gone yesterday.

        1. I’ll also say that when we stunk throughout most of the 1950s, you didn’t get the #1 draft pick and largest international allocation as a reward for your ineptness. That can speed a turnaround.

          1. I did see the team during the 80s (mid to late 80s) and 90s. The early 90s were better because they were building toward the 93 team – they were bad but watchable. The late 90s teams had young potential stars – Rolen, Abreu, and Lieberthal – which made them more interesting. I can’t speak to the 50s – that definitely might have been quite a bit worse.

          2. I remember a game when I was in my early 20’s watching Joe Cowley pitch and Steve Jeltz play SS. I think I just threw up in my mouth.

    3. SELL SELL SELL!!! For incompetence, this Phils management takes the boobie prize. You’d have to be blind or completely out to lunch to not KNOW where this team has been heading for the last 3-4 years. Heads in the sand or no working heads at all.

      I agree that until we get rid of this bunch of owners-management this franchise is destined to be stuck in the mud for at least 3-4 years…with no reason to believe this “time-out” will be of great benefit to raise the level of competence even then given early draft picks.

      Three franchises have the kind of leadership that the Phils desperately need: the Cubs, Athletics and the Giants, the latter having the best manager in baseball. Until there is that kind of ownership-management, there’s little or no hope.

      P.S. Even with high draft choices, there’s no reason to believe they will draft well to produce real players. Their drafting and LA free agent signings show no reason they will use those opportunities DECENTLY!

      Only a new, fresh, aggressive group would have a chance; not this group of “losers.”

    4. It would be nice if you used your sign in name instead of “Anonymous” to express your views. Gregg, can you set something up which would force people to identify themselves?

      1. Yes.
        BA Badler had it earlier as you allude
        But Jim Salisbury pressed the issue to Ruben yesterday and he ‘no commented on rumors’ as would be expected.
        However, $4M will be their highest ever in the LA market, MAG not included.
        So it is now at the local media level.

      2. If by blow out you mean 10+m I will be a very happy man. If you mean 1 4m prospect and a couple other sub 500k signings I won’t be nearly as happy.

  6. Just watch is you can today’s home opener. I’d say 45 to 50 games if we get injuries we in bigger hole. Wow thank you Phillies Management.

      1. That is the idea be as bad as we possibly can be because honestly what is the difference between 62 wins and 72 wins.

        If you talk about how bad they were in the late 90’s one must recognize how they ended up with the core that went on to win 5 Divisions and a WS.

        No?

        Frankly that isn’t bad for a dysfunctional ownership group such as ours. I’ll grant you a more functional organization will only have the occasional dreadful season.

        1. Yes, but in the late 90s the future core was already in place (although, actually, when you think about it – none of those young exciting players was on a team that went to the playoffs with the Phillies, which raises other interesting issues), but the point is that this never, ever should have happened. Not with a young championship team, some of the best fans in baseball, a great ballpark and an upcoming huge television contract. That the franchise sunk so far, so quickly speaks to catastrophically bad mismanagement. And this is not a situation like the one with the Red Sox where they had a stray bad season or two, but all of the pieces were in place to make the team a good one for a long time – this team has bottomed out with very little advance planning of how to make the turnaround rapid and enduring (they started working on this in the last year or so and have done the best they could do – but it was way too late in developing). I won’t get into an Ed Wade debate again, but no matter what you think of Wade, he looks like a genius compared to Amaro.

          1. ‘Wade, he looks like a genius compared to Amaro’…goes back to what I believe…..non-playing GMs seem to make better GMs then former player GMs
            Maybe they have a more analytical edge to them.
            .

            1. In all honesty, I probably wouldn’t hire a retired player in any sort of personnel management role. Coaching? Sure.

          2. 1994-54-61 Strike Season
            1995-69-75 Strike Season
            1996-67-95
            1997-68-94
            1998-75-87
            1999-77-85

            If you consider the core as I do the following players

            Jimmy-2nd Round 1996
            Burrell-1st round 1998 Wades first Draft as GM
            Madson-9th Round
            Chooch-1998 Amateur FA
            Brett Myers-1999
            Utley-1st round 2000
            Howard-5th Round 2001
            Hamels-1st round 2002

            then there were the what ifs

            Reggie Taylor 1995
            1996- Adam Eaton
            JD Drew 1997
            Gavin Floyd 2001
            No 1st round 2003 assuming because they signed Thome
            Greg Golson-2004
            No 1st round 2005 Wades Last Draft
            Drabek 2006 Gillicks first draft

            So my point is not to disagree but to point out its not apples to apples. I think the worst GM job in the world to be given is the one just after a Championship in Philadelphia with an ownership group that loves nostalgia far more than they should.

      1. One possible conclusion is that they stupidly relied too much upon W-L record, which would explain why they were so cool on Hamels. Porcello has age in his favor and also an excellent walk rate. The ERA and K-rate aren’t at all special. His agent did very well for him. If Boston was willing to spend big on a pitcher, I think they would have done best with Lester, second best with Hamels or Scherzer.

        1. It would be hilarious if the mighty Red Socks rely on W/L record. I would love if that were the case if only to laugh at the “omg boston is so well managed” crowd.

      2. Catch the redsox know if they make a mistake. They have a way of unloading bad contracts. so it wont matter,

        1. rocco…..you are correct in this particular case, since it is only a four extension. Porcello can be moved quite easily in 2017 if their farm system have pitchers trying to come on-board, and he will only be 29-years old.
          Cherington seems to have great foresight, something Ruben could have used more of in a Howard contract.

    1. Agreed. Seems Crazy. But Boston has a theory on players that from age 26-30 their production is better that it ever had been or will be. They are betting on last season’s 3.5 era to be a low mark for him. Not a high mark. Interesting bet.

      Btw, that is the opposite of how Phillies managed its team.

      1. V1 it’s rare that I agree with your posts but this is spot on, and points directly to the difference between a well run organization and the laughing stock in all of sports. Fans that post and call into sports talk and actually ask “how did this happen?” obviously hasn’t been paying any attention the last 4-years, if not longer.

        Completely clueless organization. I continue to be baffled by the inability to produce ANY quality major leaguers from their farm system. The best they can muster is Asche and Buchanon? And Giles (whom they absolutely should trade right now by the way).

      2. Any way you cut it they are giving a #3 pitcher ace money. I don’t see where his continued improvement will come from. If anything, they show him leveling off here.

        This is a horrible move, not just for the Red Sox but the league as a whole.

          1. Nah, just realize a horrible decision when it is made. How do you justify this contract? What did the Red Sox pay for?

            They paid ace money to a number three pitcher who has not shown signs of being an ace.

            Boston may have a theory but it is just that a theory. While they are producing good talent, overpaying for mediocrity is another.

            A 3.5 ERA, 3.67 FIP gets $20 million?

            Someone tell me how you justify this money with comparables because I cannot. The Red Sox are paying for supposed performance based on what? This is not progressive, this is horrible management.

            He is getting Hamels money without showing anything to indicate that he will be an ace or anything more than a number three pitcher.

            1. I won’t defend the money because it is ridiculous. But as a comparable in money and history of performance I’d point to Matt Cain’s 6 year $127.5 M. Seems like a ridiculous comparison right? Their peripherals are surprisingly similar. Cain’s ERA had always outperformed his peripherals while Porcelles’s has always underperformed (he has also usually had miserable defense behind him). The big difference is that Cain had a much better career year before signing his deal, but with Porcelles deal is shorter covering only prime years and is therefore less of a risk for less money particularly after inflation. Still not a perfect comparison and far beyond what Porcellus deserves.

        1. Ben Cherington generally does a very good job, but I agree with David, it’s a terrible contract and it’s bad for the other teams in the league. Agreed that they are paying a pretty pedestrian #3 (would be #4 on a team like the Nationals) near ace money. I get that he’s still pretty young, but he’s already got a lot of mileage and there’s seemingly no room for improvement. I imagine many expletives flew in back offices throughout the league when this deal was announced.

          1. The Red Sox did a deal based on statistics that said Porcello had a bad Detroit team in front of him.

            I get that line of thought but has be proven anything with a better defensive team in front of him? No.

            So in effect, they handed a number three pitcher $82 million guaranteed hoping he gets better.

            GM’s around the league must be screaming at the Red Sox.

            In the Phillies front office RAJ probably sent them a thank you call for making Hamels look that much better in a future trade.

            “You don’t want to pay a number three $20 million? I have an ace that is making $20 million. That option year is looking more and more attractive to potential buyers.”

            1. The idea IMO is to get short term deals on young players you need to over pay on the AAV. Brandon McCarthy is 31 and got 4/$48 from the Dodgers.

              Ervin Santana got 4/$54 from the Twins at age 32 with a possible option if he vests it to $68.

              James Shields at age 33 got 4/$73 from the Padres.

              And finally the Red Sox gave Lackey in his age 31 season a 5/$80 5 years ago. So seemingly at the rate SP salaries have escalated this is where we are.

              We say it is a lot of money today but in a year or 2 from now when Price, Zimmerman and Strasburg all hit the market we’ll probably be saying its right where the market sits for his slot in a rotation.

              We are always gasping at what these guys at the time they get it that’s nothing new.

  7. My hope is that this devastatingly bad team will provide the last bit of push to allow Middleton to become the controlling owner. That said, if it happens, we had better hope that Middleton will not only have a more burning desire to win, he will be wise in who he selects to preside over the franchise. Not all rich, powerful owners are effective. Just ask some Redskins or Jets fans.

  8. Give me an ownership group that has a vision and plan to sustain success (good scouts, devotion to minor leagues and outside markets, player development) over an ownership group looking to spend spend spend ANY DAY. Can’t we have a balance?

    I don’ care who it is.

  9. I was really surprised to see the Padres acquire Kimbrel. They already have a really good bullpen so adding Kimbrel wasn’t a huge need for them, especially considering they gave up a pretty good package and took on Melvin’s contract in the deal. I am hoping that they some how come up with the prospects for Hamels because I think Preller would pull the trigger if he could.

  10. The thing gets me they really have no plan other then let’s hope and pray that our prospects come up and make the philies better. They really didn’t go after no Cuban player’s . There letting Raj contact run out why move him up before the season. There signing a bunch of 30 something players as fill ins like they have no money to spend. I’ll watch for Utley , Asche Revere , herrerra, Buchanan and the Bp. Plus no matter how many times Ultey says he has no interest in being traded someone from the press will say something about it. He had a horrible split production wise after the all star break. The day he retires as a player he wants to coach and the know that and will a a spot ready. This season is going to be rough one to watch . The flip is the minor league system should be much better do too trades and the draft.

    1. They could not go after the Cubans because of the International deals. That much we know, if you go back on a deal you get locked out for a couple of years.

      You don’t work on signing someone for two years and then back out at the last minute because a shiny new toy appears.

      As for not blowing wads of cash, it is the smart move because that is how we got into this mess. Signing 30 year old guys is the smart way to approach everything now.

      If the guy does not work out then there is little risk attached and he walks giving you salary flexibility.

      If he works out you flip him for a prospect in July.

      Besides, was there anyone outside of the Cubans who was even remotely attractive in free agency?

      FYI, Tomas is starting the year in AAA not with Arizona.

      Yes it will be a difficult year but we knew this coming into the season. The key is to continue to develop the talent and wait two years for the new arrivals. At that point we can assess the situation and add talent accordingly.

      1. ‘They could not go after the Cubans because of the International deals’……
        that did not stop the Cubs, Red Sox, CWS, Dodgers and D-Backs from signing Cubans…..and they still will and have signed DR/Ven 16-year olds. Though two of the aforementioned will not be able to go over the $300K threshold until later down the road.

            1. On pure talent the answer is obvious, but you are also talking about $4 million versus $63 million.

            1. Big swing way out in front big upper cut. I rather have a prospect lose a couple of pds then have fill out 30 some pds.

      2. They couldn’t go after Moncada. They certainly could have gone after Castillo or Tomas, who are over 23.

      3. Good Post-I still don’t understand how some people just do not get the fine details of the Latin American Free Agent Market. Tomas not making the Diamomdbacks makes your point for avoiding high priced Cuban players for now.

        1. Tomas’ not making the D-Back roster, IMO, was because of their glut of OFers and he was instructed to learn a new position…in the infield no less, at the MLB level within a six week period in ST!. Really puzzling to say the least.
          With the Phillies he would be the LFer and the start of the future development.
          Then again he could go the way of a Dayan Viciedo at some point, but that is the risk other teams are willing and have taken.
          The $4M annum price tag for MAG , I can only assume, is a hefty risk for the Philadelphia Phillies.
          There in lies some of the reasons why this team may rest in a position looking up in the standings.

          1. I am not the least bit upset the Phillies didn’t sign Tomas. He is a one tool player and that contract is all risk no reward for a team that isn’t going to be good for at least three years. If he’s great he walks after three years and if he’s a bust you are stuck with another salary albatross for six years. There were not enough bats available in the off-season to make the Phillies offense competitive. This is going to have to be a long (and hopefully sustained rebuild) there is no quick fix for this roster. I am guessing a lot of the people who wanted Tomas also wanted Upton and Hamilton a couple of years ago. I for one am glad we won’t be paying $32.5 million for Hamilton’s age 36 season in a couple of years.

            1. Remember during the bidding war when every article called Tomas a multi-tool, plus fielding player? Spring Training exposed all of that. His hitting and fielding were both average to minus.

              Anyone can look good in a controlled environment.

              This is why I worry when I read nothing but rave reviews for a player. The major sites and ‘experts’ do very little in the way of objective reporting.

            2. Nope, not ever article. During all that hype I posted articles on this forum that said exactly what I said above. Raw power with below average across the board tools.

          2. Now will both of you…Aron and David come on the forum sometime down the road if Tomas develops into the hitter that people had thought he would be and admit you may have been somewhat premature in your assessment of him as of April 8th?

            1. Hell, I’ll go farther and say I was wrong as far back as December. Still if Tomas does become the next Abreu I don’t think the contract Tomas was looking for was a good fit for the Phillies for the reasons stated above.

            2. Complete ballplayer not just one side of the equation. He can’t play third or first in Arizona so he has to transition to the outfield.

              The whole point is to not be drawn into the propaganda that gets put out by the agents to drive the price up. Read stuff from various sources and do not get drawn into fluff articles.

              People on here had him pegged for an opening day position.

            3. Tomas is getting paid approx. $11M per season.
              Not that prohibitive, if he can produce
              But can opt out after three years if he does produce, so there are risks to the club from many angles.

    2. FA are so expensive that there is no viable alternative to building through the farm. That’s how the last core was established. Once you have that nucleus of home-grown plus players, then you can use your $$ to fill in holes with the final pieces, including a star or two, but you will over-pay, as we did with Lee. The trick to continuing to be good is to keep feeding the farm, not to starve it as RAJ did. That was just stupid. Keep developing young players, so you don’t have to re-up all of your fading core at exorbitant $/years. I don’t think the Phillies ‘strategy’ is a whole lot deeper than waiting for the Howard, Lee, and Papelbon contracts to expire. We are growing talent on the farm, but not doing anything extraordinary there. We have merely stopped doing the dumb stuff like losing top draft picks to sign FA, gambling on Hail Mary first and second rounders, and trading away our top minor leaguers. In other words, we’ve returned to normal farm operation — we haven’t done anything unusual like busting slot, blowing out the international budget, even getting extra draft picks by extending qualifying offers to potential FAs (should have done that with Ruiz, possibly Utley).

    1. On Tomas SSS………what about Cespedes, Puig, Abreu, Soler and the lot.
      There seems to be a track record of success for the positional Cubans.
      MAG unfortunately is the exception, but then again he did come rather inexpensive compared to the other Cuban signees.

      1. These are all hitters. Except for Chapman (a big exception), I don’t think we’ve seen that type of dominance from Cuban players on the mound.

    2. There’s nothing new, interesting, or damning here. They mention he got XBH at a good rate. He stunk at 3B. So what? The Phillies, and I think just about everyone else’s, interest in him was as a corner OF. That is his reasonable defensive level. The Diamondbacks seemed to really reach in trying to turn him into a 3B. They wanted a 3B, but Tomas ain’t it.

      1. D-Backs’ management may be on par with Phillies management.
        Trying to convert a 23-year old first time in America Cuban OFer to a 3rd basemen in six weeks or less in major league ST, no less.
        What the heck is that all about.
        I have to think Ruben is smarter then Dave Stewart when it would come to that kind of a situation.

  11. The Braves and Mets are also rebuilding I looked at there roster much better then ours. The Mets have 4 stud pitchers on the farm.Braves retooled and have a promising 40 man roster now. Plus there traded the Upton contact too that’s as bad as Howard’s . The have some speed besides Revere I think there faster then last yr and Galvis glove, plus Francoeur glove and arm are pluses . There starting pitching is well below avg after Hamels. Looks like I’ll be going on hot dog dollar night.

  12. Tim get the hotdogs to go. You will have a better time outside eating the hotdogs and watching the traffic.

  13. True I figured I might my dad who’s 88 so I think maybe 7 ings I’d like to see Chase -last time plus see Giles fastball. It will be later In the yr thought. Plus my nephew hears about free food he’ll be there too.

    1. Tim, we just witnessed the greatest era in Phillies history and now it takes time to rebuild so just chill out. Evaluations can’t objectively take place until later this year.

      1. There was no reason for the era to be over like this. There were ample opportunities to continue to add young talent, and the Management chose not to. That is on them. This was a major of an organizational screw up as is possible. Would not have cost $100 Million either. Over slot signings, overseas talent. Nothing was done. It is almost impossible to not add a position player in all of these years. You hit on 1 by accident. This team should still be a major factor, not the worst team in Baseball.

  14. I head out tomorrow morning for Chcago. I’ll get to spend my weekend at US Cellular Field. I’ll get to see the Shark pitch Saturday and Sale is on track to pitch Sunday.

    I’m excited for those guys this year. My friend has been in that organization for quite a few years now. That could be us in a few years.

    1. Some how Kyle Drabek made their opening 25 but most likely will get designated Sunday when Sale comes back

    2. Have fun DMAR.
      And ask your friend , who works in their company, what is their mindset on Cuban player acquisitions,ie Abreu

      1. Already have. Never has anything bad to say about many players. The few that he has I wouldn’t care to share on a public blog. When he likes a guy though his eyes light up and the excitement in his voice just carries the conversation

        We have had lengthy discussions on the Int’l draft and we are at odds. My friend doesn’t want it but I think he is swayed by Dayan Viciedo’s story. They became very close in the minors.

        If we ever get to meet romus I have some amazing tales for you.

        1. Thanks DMAR….interesting your friend is not in favor of a int’l draft…..thought most baseball corporate employees would be behind the new commissioners plans for it, but can understand the plight of the impoverished youngsters in DR/Mexico and Ven and how the large free-market bonus’ can be a life saving for many and their families…..anyway have a nice trip to Chi-town

          1. I have to find an article about all of the work that goes into signing a top player. There are so many hurdles to jump not just in terms of getting the player but promising his family visas to accompany him to the US and helping family members.

            It was a great article that delved into all of the behind the scenes work that goes into signing these LA prospects. Not everything is above board but you are not just working with the prospect and his handler but the family as well.

  15. Honestly, the Phillies will probably win 69 games +/- 3… baring an early season Hamels + Chase trade… which would probably push them down to 63 wins. My only hope is that they’re bad enough that they can nab the #1 overall pick next year on the off chance that someone is really head and shoulders above the rest of the pack.

    1. Yeah we could really use the #1 pick and some prospects for Chase and Cole. The Mets, Nats, and Marlins all have a lot of talent on their roster. The Braves should be pretty bad, but have restocked their farm and have moved a lot of money off their books. The Phillies really need to bring in some young talent or we are going to be looking at finishing towards the bottom of the division for quite some time.

      1. You more or less, echoed Pat Gillick’s words from last night at the game. In his interview he said they are looking to bring in more young talent into their farm system.

  16. Phillies have approx. $7M allocation for Rule 4’s top 10 rounds, with the 10th pick in the first round at $3.2M
    It will interesting to see how they handle their slotted values this year.
    Hopefully no surprised none signees.

  17. I know it’s a weird topic, but has anyone been following what Kenny Giles has been saying regarding his playing shape and arm strength this spring. Giles, who has (at least temporarily), lost about 3-4 MPH off of his fastball since last summer (I’m not suggesting that the loss of velocity is permanent – it’s just where he is right now – he’ll probably get some or all of it back sooner or later), has been talking about how he doesn’t want to be in “too good of shape” for the season, suggesting that this would leave him worn out later in the year. That is a pretty stupid thing for a guy trying to prove himself in the major leagues to think and say. I have nothing to prove this, but it sounds like he’s paraphrasing something that Papelbon probably told him. It suggests to me that Papelbon is getting into the heads of the young relievers and is not necessarily helping them. It also makes me wonder whether the Phillies are on top of this and are dispelling any stupid notions that Papelbon may be putting in their heads. If I’m the pitching coach and I hear that, I take Giles to the office and find out what’s going on. Then, after I hear what he has to say, I look him in the eye and say “hey, how did it feel throwing 93-96, when you usually throw 96-99 – it’s quite a different experience, isn’t it? I’m not sure who told you to stay out of shape or why you think that’s a good idea, but this isn’t helping your career. You can be in shape and not wear yourself out.”

    1. catch…..besides his lower velo his command and location was not what he wanted…still cold weather and maybe fine tuning his mechanics may help.
      And maybe a few ticks lower from triple digits …say 96/97 may help his comm and cont.in the long run and save his arm.
      My only concern with him is that he will level off to what he did in the past minors…and that is 5.4BB/9 over 141IP. As a comp Brad Lidge was 3.5BB/9 in his minor league career.

    2. Do you have any reason to blame Papelbon for it other than not liking him? Maybe he also told Dom Brown not to hit so many homers last year.

      1. I actually don’t really hate Papelbon. And, yes, I do have a reason for saying it. First, it has become public knowledge that Papelbon has taken it upon himself to mentor the young relief pitchers. Second, having listened to the really stupid things that Papelbon has said for about 4 years now, that is PRECISELY the type of nonsense that he would utter and is highly uncharacteristic for a young player to say on his own. In fact, I’d bet money that Papelbon put those ideas in his head.

        1. I agree with David. The young relievers credited him with helping them figure out the mental part of pitching in the majors, so to this point all we know about his mentoring has been positive. Just because he speaks honestly and bluntly doesn’t mean he thinks pitchers should “stay out of shape”.

          If anything, to me Giles’ comment sounds like is something I’ve heard plenty of other pitchers say: that pitching is more about flexibility and feeling comfortable with your body than having your fitness be at a certain level. Like how CC Sabathia talked about feeling more comfortable pitching at 300 lbs than a lower weight because it helps his balance.

          1. Maybe, but while Papelbon is obviously a very good and experienced major league pitcher who can pass along some wisdom, I tend to believe that, long term, he’s a human toxin – I wouldn’t want my young players developing with him as their leader. No thank you.

  18. Interesting news that the strike zone could be reduced heading into 2016. Great news, I miss the 2007 style Phillies/Sox/Yankees teams.

  19. I was maybe old news Phillies did sign A CUBAN NAMED Reiniel Roibal.he was a minor league Fa. RAJ has to start same maybe by the yr 2025 he’ll get to the big named players.

  20. I really cant believe how bad the sports writers in this town are, They talk about how the nats are in great shape, I Guess so, they have had top picks for how many years. Strasburg and harper , if I am not mistaken were first picks. the same with the mets, years of being bad and picking top ten, will in most cases get you some top talent. Our problem has been a lack of foresight by this organization, which we all have talked about. I love matt Harvey I just think he will be a future hall of famer if he stays healthy. He is Halladay at a younger age. just love the way he pitches. mlb is talking about the padres looking at Utley. I would move chase now if they take ruiz contract. don’t care what we get back. I am looking to move money now, except for hamels.

    1. Harvey is amazing – he’s more of a classic power pitcher than Halladay – he’s more Tom Seaver, or Roger Clemens or Justin Verlander (before the velocity dropped). He’s a stud. On salary, it’s not that big of a deal – the Phillies are going to be clearing salary soon enough with Lee’s contract ending after this year and Hamels probably being traded. Aside from the Howard dead money, they are going to be able to be pretty nimble in 2016 and even more so in 2017. I actually think they should consider pulling a Sixers and taking on salary in certain cases if it will help them obtain talent. The Phillies’ problem is lack of talent, not lack of resources.

      1. Catch I guess you didn’t read mlb trade rumors? They had a chance to move Howard, but would only eat 35 million. so Tampa bay signed Morales instead. What team in there right mind would pay 25 million for howard. the balance owed, if my math is right on his contract.

        1. I don’t know if that offer occurred or when it occurred, but I doubt Tampa offered to eat $35 million of that contract any time in the last two years. They are not that stupid.

          1. J64 you missed what I said, the Phillies would only eat 35 million and tampa bay wanted them to eat more. they wouldn’t. or they could have moved Howard. Who looks so bad, it hurts to watch him.

    2. rocco……helps to go 6 straight years…2005 thru 2010 …and finish last or 4th in the NL East…and get high picks in the Rule 4…draft well and you get good results.
      The Nats paid their dues. Then take the Philles ‘Cole Hamels chance’ with a Lucas Giolito, and you have a winner.
      Phillies need to draft well in the first few rounds in these next three/four drafts.

  21. The latest Cuban in the sites:
    Guillermo Heredia. A 24-year old CFer, no restrictions.
    Let the bidding begin.
    Will this be the Phillies turn?

      1. I think the guy had some sort of attitude problem. Notice in his third year the HBP went from 0 to double digits and stayed there three seasons straight.

        Either the guy was taught to lean in on a pitch or a few people did not like him for whatever reason.

        1. Also one of the oddest combinations in a ballplayer…..throws left and bats righthanded. A regular Cleon Jones.
          Ht 5’10”, 180 lbs….another Herrera or Revere I assume, but from the rightside

  22. Ty Jim on Shortall some kind of injury. The phillies might be better then 60 wins . Teams might come in here playing down to them. Plus you have some of the vets that have nothing to lose playing there buts off Francoeur , Sizemore, Willams . The younger guts happy to be playing in the mlb. Galvis , Herandez, Herrera, etc . Plus Garcia looks good , Franco on a tear and might be up by mid season. Baseball are not won on talent alone .

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