190 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of March 23rd”

1. Who has the most career WAR out of Asche, Galvis , Ruf, and Brown? Think I have it in that oreder at this point. I feel like one of them will turn into a serviceable major leaguer though.

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2. not “has”, rather “ends up with”.

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3. I know that offense is down everywhere in major league baseball, but I have to admit that I have no idea what the Phillies are doing with regard to their offense (aside from trying to clear expensive, unproductive players from the payroll). As creative and thorough as the team has been at obtaining pitching talent in the last year and a half, they have been equally inept at obtaining or developing hitters. I like Cord Phelps and I like Herrera, but the problem has been getting worse and worse over many years and I just don’t think the current management has any idea of how to acquire or develop good hitters. Maybe the plan is to develop pitching and trade for hitters when the teams who need pitching get desperate. I suppose that could work, but key to that plan is the ability to identify good young hitters, something the Phillies have been especially bad at doing in the last 5 years or so.

   Look, I’m not saying it’s a bad idea to develop pitching and defense first – in fact, it might be a good idea. But it’s never a good plan to ignore hitting the way the Phillies have. There needs to be some balance here.

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   1. Phillies are rumored by Fangrapghs’ Kiley McDaniel to be primed to sign DR OFer Jhailyn Ortiz in July at an approx. $2/3M bonus number, which is huge for the Phillies.. He is 6’2″ and 260 lbs with reported 70 power. But he is also will be 16 and pretty big at that age…he may get bigger, who knows.
      Ironically, Ven Odubel Herrera was signed by the Rangers for a whopping $160K in ’08, and right now that likes a real plus bargain price signing.

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      1. 260 at 16? Excuse me but doesn’t that sound fat?

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         1. I agree Murray, does sound like a large payload at such a young age. But read Kiley McDaniel’s article on the scouting on him and see what you make of it?
            His write-up is about a quarter down the page with a video attachment.

            http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2nd-plans-are-coming-into-focus/

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            1. Thanks, I saw this before. Watching the video, its hard to believe he’s 260. He actually seems to move pretty well and he certainly swings easy and free. You never know when you’re investing in a 16 yr old but it seems like its worth a shot and cross your fingers.

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         2. Excuse me murray But did you ever meet romus at 16. He was bigger than that. and was allstar

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            1. As a strength and conditioning coach I’d love to get a hold of someone his size as long as he wants to work hard on getting stronger and into better condition. There’s a lot of upside in having that kinda size but again he needs to want to work hard to turn it into even more power.

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   2. Agreed, that’s why we have to hope that some of our minor league hitters break through this year.

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4. Here’s an interesting case to be made:

   1.Revere, CF – .150/.209/.150/.359
   2.Galvis, SS – .250/.250/.250/.500
   3.Utley, 2B – .438/.471/.500/.971
   4.Howard – 225/.225/.400/.625
   5.Ruiz, C – .207/.233/.241/.475
   6.Brown, RF – .241/.371/.276/.647
   7.Asche, 3B – .229/.263/.457/.720
   8.Herrera, LF – .368/.415/.395/.809

   On that list, the only one play who could reasonably start on a contending team.

   The Phillies could be historically bad this year and will probably secure the 1st overall draft pick without much drama. Any phenoms in next years draft? (Aka Bryce Harper / SS types) Gotta pray.

   It’s funny because last year we all debated if we should do a complete tank job, and I believe LarryM (among others) strongly advocated for maintaining a 75-80ish win pace instead of completely “tanking” for better draft positioning and budget allocations.

   The most awesome thing about this is, we didn’t really “fully tank” since Cole, Lee, and Utley are still on the roster, but we’re likely to be one of the crappist Phillies teams we’ve had in decades anyway. It’s almost like comparing the Lakers or Knicks vs the Sixers.

   Two of those teams tried to be good (the first two believed this even though it was obvious they wouldn’t, reminds me of the 2013 Phillies) and sucked, one of them planned to suck for the sole purpose of building a perennial championship contender and so far has executed the plan really well. Since I’m sure there are those “integrity of the game” folks here, maybe a more acceptable parallel would be the Flyers, who it seems have finally seen the light and are building a team the right way. This isn’t all the Phillies fault though because unfortunately you cannot trade draft picks in MLB, but you could have signed Cubans over the last 5 years.

   Here’s one of my favorite management philosophies:

   “An executive team that has managed their company to the brink of bankruptcy will rarely be the same team that successfully rights the ship.”

   Sounds simple, but the reasoning is legit.

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   1. Well, when you combine, arrogance with the lack of good judgment, the lack of proper planning, poor talent evaluation, poor developmental processes, poor fiscal management, and the lack of creativity, things can go downhill pretty quickly. And that they did.

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      1. It’s really astounding. I’m not sure how many people they have on the management team, but I would have gutted the entire thing if I owned the team. Everyone from the scouts to the executives and I would have brought in a brilliant forward thinking GM and given them all the latitude they needed to implement their plan (and hire the staff they need to do so successfully). I would have attracted said GM by being patient with the rebuilding process and offered a significant compensation package half of which tied to mutually agreed upon objective performance bonuses.

         See as owner, your most important responsibility is hiring an excellent GM. (also stadium stuff and budgetary items but they’re secondary).

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         1. “See as owner, your most important responsibility is hiring an excellent GM.”

            I agree with this statement across various sports – this is the main reason why the Eagles still do not have a Super Bowl victory.

            The Phillies people are slowly moving in the right direction but they are very, very, very old fashioned in a sport where being old fashioned makes it exceptionally difficult to compete.

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            1. I still think Hinkie knows what he’s doing and I support him. The other GMs in the city? Not a good track record….

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               1. I support Hinkie too – at least he’s trying to do the right thing and Noel appears to have big upside. Actually, I like the plan and I think their free agent pick ups (Ish Smith, Robert Covington) and their later draft picks have been good. If Embiid and Saric (great, great acquisition, plus they picked up a first round pick – that was amazing!) are as good as I think they might be, this team is going to be fine.

                  The jury is still out on Hextall – he seems focused on developing younger players and has made a few steals in some trades. It’s not good, however, that they went to war with and fired the goalie coach for their best goalie in years – that was strange and, it seems to me, pretty stupid, especially when it seemed that the goalie coach (who was concerned with Mason’s healthy), was right.

                  I have no idea what Chip Kelly is doing or whether it will work – we won’t have a decent idea of that until later this year or even next year. Instead of building their organization around an outstanding GM, the Eagles have always been swayed by the culture of the “hot” coach. More times than not, it’s not a good model unless you are lucky enough to get a guy like Belichick, but he’s a once or twice in a generation coach. Chip’s smart, but is he that smart and disciplined? I don’t know, but without a leading GM, if Chip leaves they will be back to square one.

                  On the Phils, I like that they are letting the big contracts expire and are trying to move other money. I like their moves over the last two years in terms of trades, rule 5 pick-ups and under-the radar signings. And I like that they have a new player acquisition director. But I really don’t like that Ruben Amaro is still in charge and I think he literally has no clue about how to build an offense.

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               2. Yeah I actually think there’s a possibility Hinkie could end up being one of the best GM’s this city has ever seen. I mean maybe his plan doesn’t work out, but I wouldn’t bet against him.

                  GM’s to me are evaluated in the following areas:

                  Right now, I score him as follows:

                  1. Coach: 10, I love BB, he’s a great player development coach, makes good in game decisions, and his team is really playing for him. I think he’s going to end up with at least one Coach of the Year trophies when this is said and done.
                  2. Drafting: 8 (but could be a 10), MCW was a good pick (given slot of 11 and the weak draft), Noel will be a star, though probably not a super star (great value at 6 in a weak draft). Embiid was the best player in the draft last year and it wasn’t all that close if not for his injury, to get him at 3 was a good call even if I will be nervous for the next 2 years watching him play. Elfrid Payton was an excellent pick (I have insider information that they were really hot on him and would have been happy keeping him), and the trade even better (more on this later). Saric is looking great overseas but we’ll have to wait to see how it translates. Also, his second round picks and D-league pick-ups have been great.
                  3. Trades – 10, he’s made a number of fantastic trades. What he got for Jrue is stunning, the above mentioned Payton trade might however been his mea culpa. The MCW trade was also awesome, guy was the most inefficient player in the NBA and he got a top 5 protected Laker pick!
                  4. Free-Agency: UNKNOWN – he hasn’t made any major FA acquisitions.
                  5. Player Development: 8, Noel is coming along really well, Covington and Jerami look like they are development well, T-rob too. This one is still a little TBD, we’ll know much better next year.
                  6. Franchise Direction: This one is the most subjective, but I give him a 10. He made the right decision to exit perpetual mediocrity and I couldn’t be happier with how he’s managed the cap and accumulated all these draft picks. He isn’t going all-in in FA right now (rightfully) because he hasn’t yet acquired the core of the team.

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               3. Hinkie is average to me. I still doubt his ability for patience when assessing draft picks. I doubt Brown stays past 5 years if Hinkie keeps trading guys which would be a real shame because Brown is one of the top 10 coaches in the league.

                  What are you guys watching with regard to Saric? After his first month his stats trailed off and he has been very inconsistent. He should be a much better rebounder for someone 6’11”.

                  http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=003112

                  The whole goalie coach is overblown for the Flyers. Who whines over a goaltending coach? Reese never did anything good with any of the other talent he was handed over the years. Lots of hyperbole and horrible articles surrounding the team.

                  Hextall was handed a horrible roster from a cap perspective and is doing a great job considering the garbage contracts that Homer signed.

                  Chip is unclear at this point. Lots of bluster but he significantly downgraded the WR position, traded a top RB for one with some health issues, and picked up a QB that has not played since 10/20/13. Yes, Bradford has not played a down of professional football in 17 months. He is hanging his hat on a lot of injury prone guys on offense. This may be the longest season of all in 2015 and not for a good reason.

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               4. Saric was on NBATV sunday, played 20 minutes, 8 points on 3-5 shooting (1-1 from the line). Generally though, the view on him is as much or more scouting based then stat based at this point. He’s athletic, had a nasty dunk in sundays game, has legit 3 point range. I’m really looking forward to him coming over though until he does it’ll always be a bit of a ? to see how it translates. His level of competition is pretty much equivalent to AA right now in baseball terms.

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               5. I love Saric’s measurables but like you said he is playing against AA competition.

                  I would hope that he can grab more rebounds.

                  My biggest problem is that Hinkie will have to trade one of Noel, Embiid, or Saric because there are not enough minutes to go around.

                  If he kept MCW he could have used a combination of MCW and Noel to attract a big time FA and used Embiid or Saric is a chip in a sign and trade along with draft picks to make a deal.

                  Do something similar to how the Wizards went out and traded for Nene.

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               6. As for timeframes I am thinking about a deal for a star after next season.

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               7. I’m not actually that concerned about the three sharing time, 2 positions, 90 mins of play time per game, 30 mins a player. There could also be some opportunity for Saric to play the 3 in specific situations if his 3pt shooting advances sufficently, and I know for certain Noel can defend the 3 as well.

                  I don’t really expect any of those players to be playing more then 32 mins a game given injury problems with bigs in general.

                  The other point I’d make is that the most important thing at this point is acquiring a superstar, and it’s highly unlikely that all 3 of those players (Saric, Embiid and Noel) are likely to work out long term so the little bit of redundancy is ok.

                  the bigger question is going to be if they have the opportunity to draft Karl Anthony Towns in this upcoming draft. Do they take him? Do they trade back a couple of spots? To me he’s clearly the best player in the draft, but obviously given the current roster, it isn’t the best fit. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. I’m actually hoping for Russell at this point.

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               8. From what I read and gleaned from scouts comments this is a 4 player draft then a massive dropoff although the media will tell you otherwise.

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            2. The Phillies are putting in a very expensive computer system which is based on the Red Sox program. The progress is slow but coming up to speed.

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5. I think your right about letting contracts run out. I read a article on next years fa and they named 14 teams that are ready to spend. the Phillies weren’t one of them.

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   1. It comes down to who makes it to free agency not who is spending money. If the last few years have taught us anything it is more about money well spent than throwing dollars at players.

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6. I like your breakdown of the departments.

   Here’s what I’d have for the Phillies:

   1. Coach/manager – 3. Sandberg is an old time guy without a working knowledge of statistics and is not sensitive to issues regarding pitchers. He also doesn’t seem to connnect with players. He’s not a full on disaster, but he’s not been very good, either.

   2 Drafting – 3/4. The drafting has not been quite as bad as we’ve been led to believe. When they had the opportunity to draft a top pick (Nola, Crawford), they’ve generally done okay. They’ve also had bad drafting position (due to prior success of the team) and have lost draft picks due to FA signings. That said, I still think they were slightly below average. They never seem to hit on their tool shed outfielders (it’s like a 25 year history of futility – enough already!), but do okay in other areas, including pitching. And, oh yeah, who made the rule that you need to use a 4th, 5th or 6th round pick to get an “underrated” power hitting first baseman. Yeah, that’s where you got Ryan Howard. You got lucky. That fortunate pick, however, shouldn’t form the basis of an organizational philosophy.

   3. Trades – 2/3. Again, there have been some better trades recently and it’s not a full on disaster, but it’s pretty close. It doesn’t take a genius to trade away prospects to acquire name players. It does take a genius to do that and keep the team humming after those guys get old. Amaro is no genius.

   4. Free Agents – 3. Looking at the entire spectrum of FA activity, from signing other people’s players, to extending your own players, to allowing your own players to walk. The Cliff Lee and Hamels signings were fine as was the Byrd signing. Aside from that, it’s been awful on the whole. They decide to extend Howard early, but failed to sign Werth early and let him walk. Pence turned into just a very good player rather than the star they expected (why they expected him to be a star is anyone’s guess, he’s NEVER been a star, although he’s certainly productive), so they discarded him. Papelbon’s a good pitcher, but he’s an expensive and jerkish luxury on a team that has no real use for him.

   5. Player development – 3. I gave them a 3 because I’d probably give them a 5 for pitching and a 1 for hitting. On the whole, it’s not good. Players are not developing as you might expect them to develop. And then when they do get good coaching, the coaches don’t return (Wally Joyner, Davy Lopes), suggesting that organization does not prioritize or value good coaching properly.

   6. Franchise Direction – if you asked me last year, I probably would have said a 1 or a 2, this year, I’m probably at a 3, and that’s a generous grade because Pat Gillick does know what he’s doing. But Gillick is not the future and he doesn’t totally buy into the metrics that now are state-of-the-art in the industry. The team is pulling together, but the future leadership is hazy at best as is the ownership situation. This is one of the most archaic franchises in baseball. Just ask yourself – what do the Phillies do really well? I think the best you can say is that it’s a friendly and stable environment and the team has loyal fans and large projected revenues. But when it comes to performance issues, the team is not doing well.

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   1. I agree with this… I feel like to a certain extent, it drives even the most passionate fans away from the team.

      I hope that the team is bad enough long enough that ownership just gives up. Realizes that they’re outclassed by the rest of the league and just sells the franchise.

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7. Ten reasons to follow the Phillies this year:

   1) Because even the worst teams win around 60 games in a season. That means you have almost a 40 percent chance of watching them win every night!

   2) Because any game where they are tied or lead going into the 7th is going to be fun with this bullpen.

   3) Because Cole Hamels has had the best Phillies career of any pitcher in my lifetime (I was a little too young to see Carlton in his prime), and I want to savor every last unhittable changeup before he goes

   4) Because I’m still hoping Maikel Franco can cut down on his strikeouts enough to be a decent major league third baseman (and maybe more)

   5) Because by July, Aaron Nola and Jesse Biddle may be anchoring this rotation. This spring has also given me a little hope (just a little) for an Adam Morgan bounce-back.

   6) Because the last two drafts have proven to me that the talent evaluators in the Phillies front office are not actually as moronic as most people seem to think, and we’ve got another nice pick on the way in June.

   7) Because all indications point to a massive spend in Latin America this year, and if nothing else, their scouts have given me reason to say the name “Arquimedes Gamboa” in my Harry Kalas voice at least once a week. (Try it, it’s guaranteed to make you feel better.)

   8) Because JP Crawford could very conceivably end this season playing in Lehigh Valley–or even (in an extremely wishful scenario) in Philly as a September call-up

   9) Because after this year, there will be nowhere to go but up.

   10) Because … sorry, not even I could come up with 10.

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   1. I tried it…..Arquimedes Gomboa, not bad
      But still prefer my old favorite …… Mickey Moor…aand ….dini

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8. I really like what the White Sox have done. I have some friends in that organization and I’ll be out there for their opening weekend. Reinsdorf has always been the type of owner to stand back and let his baseball people build the franchise.

   He hasn’t always got it right because he too can be loyal to a fault but Kenny Williams really grew as an executive when he took a step up in the ranks and gave the GM job to Hahn. Most metrics guys would like Hahn.

   Point is the Phillies have always had too many chefs in the kitchen and things won’t improve until they decide to solve their ownership issues.

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9. Buchanan with yet, another a very good outing today. Looks very sharp and pitches fast.
   Not sure how to project him. Last year at this time he wasn’t on my top tier prospect radar watch. Hoping he becomes a gem.

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   1. As a 7th round pick, if Buchanan sticks in the rotation as a 5, the Phillies got value for that. Best case, he’s a 4 but he’s cheap labor who can hopefully eat up some innings.

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   2. Hey Romus, I had him on my Kendrick/Cloyd list. He may peak a tad higher than Kendrick, but he is a 5 at best on a competing team.

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      1. Same here……also had the same outlook on him.
         he may surprise everybody.
         Here is a good human interest article on him:
         http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20150324_How_a_trip_to_Africa_changed_Phillies__David_Buchanan.html

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10. I think, the big difference so far is his change, Imo way better location then last year, but its early

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    1. Will be interesting to see how Aaron Nola does when he pitches vs the Yankees on Friday.

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11. why is Ruf getting so little playing time this spring?

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    1. Hey Tony, check the stats, he is #6 in at bats for Grapefruit play. That’s a lot of at bats / playing time. When he has not been the major league games he has been playing in the minor league games most of the time.

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       1. However he is batting below the Mendoza line most of the spring. Not sure if he has any minors options?….but he is not lighting it up.

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          1. I think he has one option remaining. I wouldn’t be surprised if he started the season in LHV.

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             1. That’s what I was thinking if he had an option. Do you think Cesar will make the team batting .079?

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                1. Yes. I don’t know if they will make all the roster moves that seem indicated to keep people based on the small sample of spring training. For example, a guy like Bogusevic probably deserves to make this team, but he’s left-handed and would require a roster move to put him on the roster. If he were right-handed, I think they keep him for sure. Maybe if Domonic Brown starts the season on the DL, Bogu or some other NRI gets a look …

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12. Hey Jim, I think the Reading (who I’m planning to see a lot) could trump your threshers 😉

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    1. That’s why I opted for the MiLB package this year, so I could watch their starting rotation.

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       1. You got your bases covered Jim. Who do you think will be on the reading team for position players?

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          1. Pointer, Quinn, and Altherr or Aaron Brown in the OF. Lino and Moore catching. Duran at ss, Charles at 1b, Pierre at 3b

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             1. No argument here, just not sure they would double jump Brown. (I would also like to see him for a couple months in Clearwater with Cozens and Tocci. But, that’s me being a selfish fan more than a guy making a baseball decision) I almost forgot about Pierre. He and Martinez are essentially the same defensively at third.

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                1. Hoping Cozens can put it together, he’s a big boy.

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                2. Martinez has been working as a sub with the CWater group so far so I’m not sure he’s going to Reading. I’m not even sure he’ll have a job. I agree that Brown should logically go to CWater but he’s been working with the Reading group and holding his own. Sending him down would also require the Phils to send Sandberg down to LWood (he’s been working with the CWater group), which is easy to see happening, and Pujols down to WSport in the RF domino game. If Brown goes to CWater, he’ll have to share at bats and DH with Cozens in RF. They seem to want Pullin to play every day in LF there.

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          2. That’s a tough exercise in “Phillies thought”. The Phillies have 13 position players from the 40-man roster still in the major league camp. But they also have 11 non-roster position players there too. The number of NRI guys they keep and their placement will determine the make up of the Lehigh Valley, Reading and to some extent the Clearwater rosters. Strictly guessing – Catcher: 2 of Rene Garcia, Joseph, Moore; Infield: Art Charles, Carlos Alonso, Harold Martinez, Crawford (although he may begin season in Clearwater); Outfield: Quinn, Pointer, Dugan (until he completes rehab and moves to LHV), Altherr (maybe they start him in LHV?); Bench: Edgar Duran, Serna, Stassi, Gustavo Pierre, and maybe Angelo Mora.

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             1. Thanks Jim, Looks like I would have guessed.

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             2. You forgot Lino, who has looked great in camp. I expect Knapp to get most of the at bats in CWater, with Mayorga, and I think Lino and Moore will share Reading. I agree that Alonso and Serna will probably go back to Reading with lots of 4A guys for LHV.

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                1. Nah, I didn’t forget Lino. I watched him last season in Clearwater. Not impressed. I haven’t seen him this spring, but SSS of ST not enough to change my opinion of him, yet. He’s only 21. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he begins the season in Clearwater.

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13. Jim….were you planning on doing the daily box-score recaps after the minor leagues seasons start?

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    1. I was hoping Brad would realize his place is here and would return to take on that task, haha. Seriously though, Brad explained the process to me. However, I don’t have MS Paint, one of the apps he used. I tried some other third party apps to try and duplicate his results, but was unable to do so. I will continue to try and solve this problem (without having to purchase Paint). If I can’t and if we don’t get some additional staff, I’ll post a summary like Brad did with the link to the box scores. I can’t promise to be as witty or entertaining as Brad, but I’ll give it a shot.

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       1. Thanks Jim

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       2. Thanks Jim, no need for witty….

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14. Anyone else read the snippet on Kilome ? Was sitting 91-93 touched 95 a couple of times and topped out at 97. That is VERY exciting to see esp since there’s still projection. Can’t wait to see how he does this year.

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15. Why haven’t I heard anything about his pitcher Tyler Knigge who pitched today? Who is he

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    1. Knigge was a 12th round pick in 2010. He had moderate success in his first full season of A ball at Lakewood in 2011 and followed it up with a promising 2012 across 2 levels in Clearwater and Reading – 55 appearances, 70K in 69 innings, 23 walks. They sent him to the AFL that fall and he stumbled against the better competition. He posted a +4.00 ERA at Reading in 2013 and LHV in 2014 while K/9 dropped significantly and his BB/K rose.

       He probably needs to duplicate his 2012 Reading success at the upper levels to get back into the bullpen conversation at the major league level.

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       1. Was at the game today. First time seeing knigge pitch. He certainly throws hard 93-95 mph. His off speed was around 81. Not sure if it was a curve or change up. He gave up to ground ball singles and then just seemed to overpower the batters. I really thought Buchanen threw well today. FB was 89-91, most were 91. Few hard hit balls.

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          1. Knigge has a good arm, always has. The issue has been command and strength of his secondary offering(s). He could take a step forward at any time.

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             1. The LHV bullpen should provide some future options with Neris, Jimenez, Knigge, Araujo, Rosin, Murray, and Ogando all potential major leaguers this year.

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16. rupp has been interesting to me since he was much younger. good hitter who uses the whole field plus plays the game with some spunk. phillies need this kind of grit

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    1. At this point, we’re just trying to see if Rupp can hit enough to be a backup. I don’t think anybody has any illusions that Rupp is going to be a solid regular.

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17. What rupp are you talking about ???? the one who is from texas who cant hit or field or another one?

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    1. rocco…have you seen his ST slash so far? Granted it is SSS and ST, but it is a positive.

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       1. Romus five years in minors. He will be 27 in june. 39 homeruns in 1555 at bats. 245 average. I have seen enough, I saw this kid in college playing at texas, though he had a chance, but his numbers aren’t good. and he is older.

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          1. Ruiz didn’t make his major league debut until age 27…

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             1. Ruiz’ minor league performance was much better, and he is (in terms of player development) an EXTREME outlier.

                Ruiz at least had (and has) one key offensive skill to build on – contact skill. Rupp has a career minor league K rate of 25% – and much worse than that in the high minors. The one arguably plus skill as a batter is power, but even that hasn’t really manifested itself in game situations.

                The age of course by itself does not preclude success, but it’s indicative of someone who almost certainly doesn’t have much if any room for further growth as a player.

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                1. Ruiz also started as a 2B and/or possibly a pitcher if I remember correctly. Either way Ruiz had to learn a new position that is very demanding defensively.

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       2. Meaningless. 100% meaningless. Grasping at straws.

          He’s a back up. He may have a long career as a backup, but no indication he can be more than that.

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          1. Larry, on a couple of your points.

             1. I think you are right that the organization, at least until recently (and perhaps even currently), has not been focusing sufficiently on on-base skills. I don’t think they are looking for free swingers, I just think on base skills are not part of their focus in player acquisition – they are more focused on physical skills. That’s why you get someone like Aaron Brown, who is very skilled but probably can never amount to anything if he doesn’t develop or have good plate judgment.

             2. I think you’re right that Rupp’s highest and best outcome is as a back-up. That said, with catchers, especially big strong guys like Rupp, I think you sometimes see a late development in the hitting department. I think this is as a result of many factors, including the fact that catchers are focused so much more on catching that it holds back their development as hitters. I also think that some catchers are far more attuned at how pitchers attack a hitter that they develop a better instinct/feel for what the pitcher is going to do. So as they grow as a catcher, they play the cat and mouse game better as a hitter too. For these reasons, I am a bit more hopeful with Rupp than I would be with, say, a 27 year old corner outfielder who shows signs of a breakout (like all the guys fighting for the last outfield roster spot this spring).

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             1. Your point in 1 is correct…..recently the GM has lost focus on OBP.
                From late -90s thru approx 2005…the combination of Abreu and Burrell alone for that six year period, resulted in a team higher OBP rate. However, they were both a product of an Ed Wade venture in their acquisitions, so I guess you have to take that for what it is worth.

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18. I think the 1 acquisition the team may make is a back up C as teams pare down their rosters.

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    1. My guess the plan is to keep Rupp with the Phils, play him more (than a typical back up) to spell Carlos, and see what he can do as a hitter. Makiel Franco and many other prospects I have see through the years are good hitters in AA and AAA but seem to fall short at the MLB level. I guess you could continue to play Rupp in AAA but would like to see him get some good time at the MLB level to see if he can at least be a back-up. Hitting is the biggest problem with the Phils org (that and really no projectable 1’s for SP). With that said…….

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19. So chime in Jim and anyone else; Are you concerned about the organizations lack of hitting?

    From my vantage point this has been the biggest problem with the Phils overall in my lifetime of following them (mid 60’s to now). Most recently 2009 – 2014 they have tried to win with pitching, and they were very successful 2010 – 2011 with that approach during the regular season, but it was at the expense of obtaining, developing, and or retaining hitting FA’s or prospects. The two that stand out in my Phillies life time were Pete Rose, and to a lesser extent John Kruk. Of course they were both FA signings.

    Utley was probably the best Phillies hitter that stuck with the team in my lifetime, but he was as more about power and aggressive base running than being a .300 ave. hitter. Rollins and Victorino were good hitter for a year or two, but they were still very streaky. I mean other than Rose, the late 70’s early 80’s Phils and the 2005 – 2011 Phils were more about bash and dash. 1993 was blip of over achieving hitters and some good young pitching(and some over achieving pitchers).

    Looking at last years Major and Minor box scores, and so far this spring I see a lot more hope for pitching than I do for hitting at all levels.

    Your thoughts?

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    1. I know you’re not asking me, but …

       Yeah, I think there’s a real problem with hitting. But I don’t think it’s simply a development issue, I think it’s a talent evaluation issue and a hitting philosophy issue.

       I normally reject the overly facile, simple answers, but IMO at least part of this goes back to “I don’t care about walks, I care about production.” I think that attitude permeates the organization, and influences talent acquisition at the major league level, drafting, and instruction. The organization favors hitters with an overly aggressive approach. I don’t think that that is 100% of the explanation, but it is a pretty big explanatory factor.

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    2. Almost 30 years ago, a wise baseball analyst stated,

       “Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics.”

       By the time a kid reaches the upper limits of an organization, there are no more suprises. A .250 hitter in AA or AAA isn’t all of a sudden going to light it up with a promotion to the major league club. So, yes, the lack of hitting in the organization concerns me. And the fact that the best contact guy (Astudillo) doesn’t really have a position yet also concerns me.

       I would add Lenny Dykstra to your list of hitters. I remember he would do anything to get on base. I also remember there were a few seasons where he walked more than he struck out.

       He fits the “overly aggressive” mold Larry mentions, but it worked for him and ultimately the Phillies.

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       1. This post got me wondering. I am sure there must be good example of batters who ‘blossomed’ at the MLB level, and who maintained that level for several years. Outside of Utley, I could not readily think of any recent names. The power of the interweb lead me to the following article, which highlights some recent examples of players who outperformed their minor league stats. At quick and unscientific glance, most of the players who appear near the top of the list were players who moved quickly through the minors (and were likely young for their leagues)

          http://www.sbnation.com/2013/7/12/4516766/hitters-better-in-the-majors-than-the-minors

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          1. When you look at the list……and I didn’t look at everyone, but some actually started their rookie years (SSS) and 2nd years in the minors with their lowest numbers (OPS) and as they progressed thru the levels upward they trended to get better.

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       2. It may be a differing definition of “overly aggressive,” but Dykstra to me wasn’t that … or at least not what I meant by an overly aggressive hitter. His career BB rate was over 12%, quite good (it was even higher as a Phillie) and better than any current Phillies regular.

          I would add that it’s possible to get away with a very aggressive approach if one has very good contact skills. But mediocre to poor contact skills mixed with an aggressive approach is a deadly combination (and one that seems common these days on Phillies regulars and prospects). (Though again Dykstra IMO doesn’t fit the mold – he had good contact skills but also good BB skills.)

          I would add that the only reason that Franco is a good prospect despite his approach is that he does seem to have good contact skills – though whether that will translate to the major league level (given his problems with breaking balls) is an open question.

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          1. I watched Lenny play his entire career – I lived near NY (and was a Mets fan) when he was with the Mets and coincidentally moved to Philly (and later became a Phillies fan) when he was with the Phillies. Far from being overly aggressive, Lenny was probably the most patient, picky hitter you can imagine. He was always working the count in his favor, fouling off borderline pitches and waiting for the one pitch each at bat that he knew he could drive. If he didn’t get it, was going to try to walk. Lenny was (and remains) crazy, he was juiced and his career didn’t last very long, but I’m pretty comfortable saying he was one of the best players I’ve ever watched. He was brilliant in terms of his approach to the game, and right up there with David Ortiz in terms of coming up big in big situations. Lenny was amazing.

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             1. Yeah, I think this is a case of people confusing an aggressive approach to the game (and apparently in Dykstra’s case all aspects of life) with lack of selectivity at the plate. Pete Rose is another guy who walked more often than he struck out. Part of that had to do with his crouch. Which makes me wonder–given the decline in power throughout the game and the growing appreciation (at least within most organizations) for players with on-base skills, isn’t it a bit odd that the 1970s-style crouch hasn’t made a comeback? Rose did it, Rod Carew did it, Rickey Henderson, Boggs did it to some degree, all those guys had career OBPs above .375. You’d think someone like Revere might benefit from taking that approach a bit more.

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20. Olivera gets 6 years and $62.5 million if The Score is correct.

    Crazy money for a guy with a UCL and possible conditioning issues.

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    1. David…its just not Olivera, it appears .you really have something against the Cubans getting all this money of late in the free market.
       Most of them have played very well over these last 3/4 years of signing and younger guys like Soler and Moncada project well also.
       At some point down the road this ‘crazy money’ madness will end. And I suspect when the international draft is established things will normalize.
       So some teams are going all out now to get that talent.
       Be happy…the Phillies are not going after Cubans. They have their sights on 16-year old DR prospect Jhailyn Ortiz, he of power supersized.

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21. Crazy Money, but the Dodgers don’t care. They are taking a shot, and if it doesn’t work out, it was only $, and they have much more. If it does work out, then it doesn’t matter what he cost. I didn’t want the Phils to go after every Cuban player. I wanted them to pick one, Castillo, Tomas, etc. and just go get him. Using the same philosophy. The Phils have very little development prowess, haven’t built a great farm system, and $ is the one thing they do have.

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    1. But the Phillies are ready to spend $3/4M for a 16-year old DR power bat, who happens to tip the scales at 260lbs
       But when it comes to the Cubans, especially the ones with known experience in the Serie Nactionale (sp) and scouted very well, hands off policy.
       Go figure

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       1. Yeah man they totally should have thrown $10 million at a guy with an UCL injury and who was winded during drills.

          Who cares about potential and upside when we could have had an injured Cuban just to throw money around.

          Dude, I totally agree with you.

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          1. The one Cuban that may have be what I would have wanted was Tomas….as a LFer and not the 3rd baseman the D-Backs are experimenting with.
             And can understand the reluctance with Olivera (age and health) and even Moncada at that price, but Tomas at 24-years old could have been a fixture moving forward.

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       2. $3M vs $20M is a pretty different situation

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          1. Murray…..with a 16-year old there is also lots more risk of success..

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             1. True just less money so the money can be spread around

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       3. Using hind sight Rusney is the guy they should have outbid everyone else for I think.

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22. And what is the excuse for not getting Castillo? I understand Moncada. They have deals in place, etc. Olivera may be hurt. Tomas doesn’t play good D. You can excuse yourself from making any deal. The only point I am making is that where the only risk is money, the Phils can afford to take that risk. They haven’t. You are welcome to support the Management all you want.

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    1. You miss the point about having deals in place with respect to Latin American talent. Go back on a deal and you are locked out for years.

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       1. Maybe one or two years….understand, the draft’s beginnings changes all that past reasoning.

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          1. I disagree with you in that regard and that The Phillies will lose many years trying to regain the trust you have built up. The Phillies are primed to become big spenders this year in the Latin American market.

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             1. Ok,so if a draft is instituted in 2017, how does that hurt the Phillies many years?

                If they draft a guy at the slotted money, which I have read they will have it slotted similar to the Rule 4, as part of the ‘single modality of entry’ that the new commish Rob Manfred wants, the player either signs for the slotted money or sits out a year.

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                1. BItter man took his bitter pills this week.

                   We get it.

                   You need to let it go. It is in the past.

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       2. Signing Castillo wouldn’t have had any effect on the Phils’ ability to sign amateur LA talent, though. He’s like 29.

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23. I understand about Moncada. But they were not in on Puig or Abreu. Missed on Castillo and Tomas, and quite frankly, have not managed to add an every day player in how many years? 8, 9? So, maybe Franco becomes a Star, but how many here really believe that? Is Nola an Ace? Doubtful, not that I don’t really like him. The only potential Star is Crawford. The Phils will be lucky to get a Nola in this year’s Draft. I am not anticipating a Crawford. Maybe with the 1st pick in 2016? Where are the rest coming from if they don’t take a chance and spend $?

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    1. Yes, you are onto something. They haven’t added a decent everyday player from the minors since Shane Victorino or Carlos Ruiz – it’s a freaking decade and it’s not like they were trading a surplus of pitching to obtain young hitters. No team can do that and stay or be good.

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       1. That’s so sad. Dom is the poster child unfortunately. Done of the traded guys has hit it big yet either. Just an all around position player problem

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       2. … and Victorino came from another organization.

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          1. 2, technically. Started with Dodgers, rule 5 pick by Padres. Played with Padres for a few months. Went back to Dodgers. Taken by Phillies in rule 5 a few years later. phillies offered hi back to Dodgers, and they said no thanks. 2 or so years later, he was up with the Phillies to stay.

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24. And, even taking into consideration the trades they made, only the Pence trade was an overpay, and when Singleton was traded, Ryan Howard was still considered a Star player. Maybe D’Arnaud would have made it not necessary to re-sign Ruiz, but no way am I complaining about getting Doc. There just has not been every day caliber players coming through the system. If we look around the league, there are a number of every day players on contending teams who were not 1st Rd picks, let alone top of the 1st Rd. Yet, the Phils haven’t managed to find 1.

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25. Nice game from Severino Gonzalez today. Ruf starting to hit.

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    1. Yes it was….

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    2. Any one see the velocity and offspeed stuff from Gonzalez yesterday?

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       1. Read somewhere….89-91 velo ,but good change-up.

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          1. I saw him pitch – sat 88-91, touching 92. He pitched fine, but let’s not kid ourselves, unless he adds a couple of MPH (which is questionable at best), he’s just another 4 or a 5. Seriously, he’s fine, but nothing to get excited about in my humble opinion. I’m hoping we are going to see significantly higher ceilings with Nola, Biddle, Lively, Mecias, Efflin and even Windle and Morgan. Sev’s okay, but, right now, he’s just another guy.

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             1. Catch your right, very few right-handers get away with 88-91 velo.

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                1. Right. Roy Halladay couldn’t pitch effectively at that velocity, what makes us think that Sev Gonzalez can?

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                2. Excellent point catch, if Halladay couldn’t do it, I dont’ have much faith anyone else can.

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             2. I agree but with his control and with his slider, I could see him being a major league reliever one day.

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                1. If I owned a team. I wouldn’t waste my time with low velocity right-handers, Talk about stats. There odds of being effective pitchers has to be real low.

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                2. Well rocco…I guess the likes of Hoyt Wilhelm, Tim Wakefield, RJ Dickey, Phil Niekro, and Joe Noekro would not be on your team…..Joe Niekro, and R.A. Dickey have won the The Sporting News Pitcher of the Year Award. Dickey has won the NL Cy Young Award. Phil Niekro is the only knuckleball pitcher to win 300 games.
                   But that’s not fair to you….since they are all knucklers.

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                3. Murray…..it seems MLB relievers have morphed over the last decade into the mid-to-high 90s plus velo FBs type. He may be pigeon-holed into the 4th/5th rotation guy.

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                4. It’s about movement not velocity if your fb straight and 97mph most mlb players are going to hit you. Greg Maddox, Loshe , Slowey. Jamie moyer, etc it’s about movement and placement. once They tried me at pitching just because I was a lefty. Well after about 30 pitches the coach came out ” can you throw anything straight. I said yea a football that’s why I Play Qb, and hockey . My friend at 3rd base yelled put him CF and watch. After about 15 mins the coach called me in. ” how is it that you from CF could it the catches mit but when you pitched you couldn’t . You the backstop, the ground , the batter almost me . I was OF defensive replace and pitch runner. I never pitched again lol I love baseball the only thing I was good at was tracking flyballs and using my arm to throw out runners . Plus I was with my friends and all the girls came to watch the games plus plus.

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26. How do you think things will shake out with Phillip Amount?

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    1. If he continues to pitch well, he could stay on the Phillies’ roster in April. His stuff is great. His inconsistency has always held him back. If he gets it together he will be an outstanding pitcher, but that is a big IF… I think they will keep him on the roster and pitch him liberally in April to see if he can maintain control and command. He has been hit hard this Spring, but has also been effective. Sounds inconsistent, doesn’t it.

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       1. I was one of his bigger supporters (because I saw the “stuff”), but, while I haven’t entirely given up on him as a player I’ve pretty much written him off as a Phillie. Aumont has a number of problems that he hasn’t solved. Yes, he has great movement on his breaking pitches, but his command is still spotty, his mechanics are difficult to repeat, and his velocity seems to all over the place from year to year (down as low as the high 80s/low 90s when he was a starter, as high as the high 90s in 2012, and now in the low to mid 90s).

          And while he still throws relatively hard (93, 94, touching 95), for whatever reason he’s down about 3 MPH from his peak of a few years ago, when he was really lethal. Maybe he’ll get that back – who knows? But what it means is that, when he’s in trouble, he no longer throws quite hard enough to just throw the ball by the hitter, so he always seems to be getting in and out of trouble trying to hit his spots. We need to move on from him at this point, and forget about the fact that his dismissal means that the Phillies literally got nothing in exchange for the foregone opportunity to win the World Series in 2009, which definitely could have happened had Lee not been traded. If his name was Phil O’Mont and he was a minor league free agent performing like this, we’d see the potential and the lack of command and shrug when he got sent down or released. He has some ability and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up having a nice little second act to his career in a few years, but he’s really not very good at this point.

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          1. Just watch, he’ll get released, sign with Cleveland and end up being their closer or #3 starter in a year or two. There is something to be said for good coaching and I don’t think Aumont got what he needed from the Phillies’ staff. I’m not blaming them – most fairly competient coaches probably wouldn’t be able to tease excellence from the person of Phillippe Aumont, but I think a special coach might be able to do that.

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27. MAG in impressive company this spring.
    Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez has given up 5 home runs this spring, tied with Verlander, Bud Norris and Travis Bauer for most in MLB….. from Ryan Lawrence.

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28. MAG does not seem MLB ready. If the Phils give him the #5 slot, it’ll be a disaster. Of course, who else are they going to give it to? None of the options look great right now. Personally, I’m praying for Joely Rodriguez to grab the spot, or for Adam Morgan to light it up the first month in AAA & show everyone that he’s back to being the guy who was knocking on the door before he got hurt.

    And please, can we just give up on Aumont already? There are lots of pitchers with great stuff who never learn enough control. He is one of them. Let’s just accept it and move on.

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    1. Tank game baby!

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    2. I think MAG will be in AAA. Hamels, Buchanan, Harang, and Williams are the top 4. They won’t need a 5th starter right away so Billingsley may be able to slide in at #5 if healthy. If he isn’t ready I’d guess the #5 spot goes to Slowey.

       I’m curious to see who will be in the pen this year. Pap, Diekman, De Fratus, and Giles are all locks. Oliver and Araujo have both pitched well. I have also been impressed with Garcia and Gomez. There are a few other names that could be thrown into the discussion as well. It’s a shame the rotation and lineup lack enough talent to compete because I think our bullpen is capable of getting the job done.

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       1. Where do you see Slowey? He could start at LHV and come back as a 5th when they need one around EOM April.

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          1. Correction….The Phillies will not need a fifth starter until April 12.

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             1. I think Slowey gets the #5 spot since it appears Billingsley won’t be back towards the end of April according to csnphilly.

                I’m looking forward to the second half when we might see guys like Rodriguez, Nola, Eflin, Lively etc. come up and pitch. Hopefully a few guys can audition for jobs in 2016.

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29. I know I am harping on the spending of $, but the Phils are now worth in excess of $1Billion. And, the new cable contract has not kicked in yet. This team was bought for $37Million! There is no excuse for them to have shorted the money spent to acquire talent, and further shows that taking a risk on Tomas or Castillo was a move they should have and certainly could have made. Soon, with an overall International draft, there $ advantage will be meaningless, not that they have not already wasted most of that advantage. There is not a team in the league, including the Dodgers, Yankees, and RedSox, that should be better able to risk $ than the Phillies.

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    1. The team’s value and the team’s cash flow are two different things, fwiw.

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    2. Spending money does not equal success nor does it give you a better chance at success.

       Top 5 payrolls last year

       Dodgers – $236.2 million 94 wins and playoffs
       Yankees – $197.2 million 84 wins and missed playoffs
       Phillies – $177.7 million 73 wins and last place
       Tigers – $163.6 million 90 wins and playoffs
       Red Sox – $163.4 million 71 wins and last place

       FInal four teams salaries

       Kansas City – $92.1 million
       Baltimore – $107.9 million
       San Francisco – $149.4 million
       St. Louis – $111.2 million

       Spending money does not equate to success.

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       1. David spending money on young talent is the point? were do we stand there since 2000 How do we rank in draft spending and international market? How in gods name can you win when your fourth round draft choice is a small second basemen named moss who didn’t make a dent. and you don’t use the money you would have spent on first, second and third round choices in latin market that year. answer that. how do you replace aging players when you lose your first round choice. You take money and spend on other markets.

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          1. Thumbs down prove me wrong. whoever thumbed it down , must be a Phillies ownership fan. proabley loves amaro too, lmao

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          2. Spending money wisely is the point.

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          3. IIRC, the Phillies are supposedly primed to greatly exceed their international allotment this year.

             The first guy is expected to sign for less than the allotment meaning there are other shoes to drop in the Phillies favor.

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             1. David….Phillies also can deal for a 50% increase to their current allotment allocation, if they so choose

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       2. But forget the Major League payroll amount. A really good organization supplements its veteran stars with young talent still under control, who are worth far more than their contracts. The point is that the Phils have not used their wealth to add through the draft by paying over slot. Nor have they gone the International route. Before there were rules, the Phils failed to take advantage of their position. Now, their Major League payroll is, for the most part, a sunk cost. They still didn’t add talent simply by spending $, be that Tomas or Castillo. Spending a couple of Million extra this July is nice, but far from what they will need.

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30. I really am stump at the dodgers giving a 29 year old , unproven at major league level 10 million a year. I think its crazy, What is happening to baseball. omg the tickets are going to be ridiculous. if something isn’t done soon. I can see going after a younger kid, but 29 and never played in majors is crazy to me.

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    1. Not just unproven but a potential UCL injury on his arm that will require Tommy John surgery and possible health issues (visibly winded during workouts).

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       1. His contract has contingency clauses based on his health risks from what was reported. So there is some money relief if he is unable to perform.

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          1. The money relief is adding a seventh year at $1 million.

             Not much of a relief.

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31. Romus the part that kills me is this, The dodgers are spending like crazy trying to win, yet go to dodgers stadium and it could be a no hitter going into the eighth inning and people leave. to beat traffic. They aren’t the kind of fans that deserved this kind of ownership.

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    1. I keep frustration at bay because I love the game of baseball first and foremost. yes I am a big Phillies fan and I will always be but I don’t get my screws all torqued up when they are bad.

       I know there will always be a great baseball or at least good baseball game on TV to watch and there will always be a young exciting player to watch. Baseball doesn’t begin and end for me with the Phillies. It once did. It is certainly enhanced when they are good or they have an all time great currently on the roster or what we do here which is dream on prospects.

       And quite frankly every city deserves a championship team so I can’t hate on another city if they seem to have it good right now.

       Mr. Rocco!

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       1. dmar I am not hating on them. I just wish we had owners with that commitment that’s all. I love the game, but watching other teams win world series doesn’t excite me,

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    2. rocco…..what about the few who do come early and stay until the end? They deserve some credit.

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32. I guess I’m bored, but I noticed that MLB GameDay is tracking in-game Game Scores for starting pitchers. Just glancing at the stat, I notice that Schilling is in the top 10 in average GmScr over his career – and in very good company. I never pegged Schil for the HOF, but at least by this measure it’s impressive. I’d be interested to know what you all think.

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/5/22/5737916/game-score-pitcher-evaluation-bill-james-tom-tango

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    1. Shill is borderline for me. Don’t think I would argue for or against him. You take his big game stats and he was elite. The totality of his career you might not say he was elite but you would say he was very good.

       He is a polarizing figure and I think sometimes that doesn’t help someone like him.

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       1. Modern metric are very, very friendly to Schilling based on his in-season stats alone. Schilling had a 79.9 WAR even though he didn’t really pitch well until his mid/late 20s, didn’t become really great until he hit his 30s and lost some time to injury at various points in his career. To put it in perspective, Pete Rose had 79.1 WAR and tons of HOFers had few WAR than Schilling, including Robin Yount and Brooks Robinson, Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Bench, etc. . . .. Aside from a few steroid guys and excepting the odd case of Mike Mussina, everyone who gets at least 80 WAR, without exception, has gotten into or will definitely get into, the HOF. Add the postseason legacy with the Phillies, D-Backs and Sox (bloody sock!) and it’s a no brainer. He SHOULD get in and he’s probably in the top 5 and certainly top 10 postseason pitchers of all time in my view. My guess is that it takes a while because the sportswriters generally hated him.

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          1. Of course Curt Schilling claims another reason for his non-selection to the HoF.
             http://www.cbsnews.com/news/curt-schilling-i-lost-hall-of-fame-votes-because-im-republican/

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             1. Yup – he does himself no favors.

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33. For those that are starting to think about the draft, here is an interesting write-up on some of the top prospects.

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/114927908/questions-develop-on-top-talent-in-2015-draft

    One snipet that jumped out to me:

    “I probably haven’t seen a Draft this unsettled, where players haven’t separated themselves,” a National League scouting director said. “You also have eight new scouting directors in what looks like a very mediocre Draft at best, so who knows what might happen? The guy who goes [No.] 12 might be as good as the guy who goes [No.] 2.”

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    1. lovely just what we need a weak draft lol

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       1. I heard the same thing not a great draft. But somewhere I saw it writing, new scouts for Phillies will not make the toolsy picks.

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    2. Hopefully the guy who goes 10th ends up as good as some of the past number one pick.

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       1. unless, of course, the #1 ends up being someone similar to:
          Tim Beckham*
          Luke Hochevar*
          Matt Bush
          Bryan Bullington
          Matt Anderson
          Brien Taylor

          * = still has time to become more valuable

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          1. Correct. The odds are still good that the player will succeed to some degree.

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    3. The 2016 draft may be the one that the Phillies should be hoping for as an outstanding class, beginning with the top 2/3 choices.

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34. Great analysis of a Hamels deal.

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/3/26/8294415/diamond-dollars-2015-examining-a-cole-hamels-trade-asu

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    1. VIagain I read the analysis, really confusing to me. I think you need a masters at least to follow that analysis. How can you dispute the guy, when he is so confusing.

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       1. rocco….skip the first 999-word dissertation and go to the last paragraph. That’s all you may want to read:

          “Proposed Trade #1 – Boston Red Sox

          Our most optimal trade partner for Hamels is the Boston Red Sox. The proposed trade sends Hamels to the Red Sox in exchange for Henry Owens (LHP), Manuel Margot (OF) and Eduardo Rodriquez (LHP).

          The trade makes sense from the Phillies perspective. They add two quality arms and a promising outfielder, all of which are Baseball Prospectus Top 101 prospects. In this trade, the Phillies are actually receiving a larger quantity of mean NPV WARP than they would in the proposed Cubs deal.
          However, the most significant reason we chose this trade is because of the value it will bring the Red Sox. The Red Sox had the highest NTI, in both weight iterations, by a considerable amount. This shows us that the Red Sox have the most to gain by adding Hamels.”

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          1. This is vastly more than the Red Sox offered. And, yesterday, Keith Law was asked what a fair return for Hamels would be, and he replied, “if I was the GM of the Phils, Swihart and 1 of the Lefties, Owens or Rodriguez, would be it.” I was waiting for him to express his ususal sarcasm or snarkiness, but he never did. I don’t want to upset LarryM, but I would take either of those deals. Certainly the 2d one I would do immediately. I don’t see that either is an outrageous return.

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             1. As a matter of fact, I think we’re now getting into the “optimistic but not outrageous” territory. In a way, this vindicates the point of view (which I share) that waiting for a better deal, though not without risk, is the proper strategy. But I’m STILL skeptical that Boston would agree to either deal.

                I do think it’s interesting that expectations around here have moderated somewhat – there was a point where these kind of offers would have been dismissed on this site as not nearly enough. There were plenty of comments along the lines of “we need to get Betts AND Swihart AND Owens.”

                I was never in the “trade him now for Boston’s low ball offer” camp. My position on this, which I’ve held pretty consistently:

                (1) Betts has always been out of the question;
                (2) If you get Swihart, then you need to tone down your expectations for the other pieces (in this sense, I think what Law is suggesting is still a little more than what one could reasonably expect);
                (3) Boston appears to be extremely reluctant to trade its prospects, making a lot of this speculation almost meaningless. I find that reluctance mostly rational, but even I think that Boston is a little TOO reluctant to trade its prospects.
                (4) Because of #3, I was (and remain) skeptical that a deal was possible – Boston would be unwilling to give up an acceptable return for Hamels.

                The hope remains that Boston will get desperate at some point and pull the trigger on an acceptable deal. Of course looming in the background is the potential availability of Cueto.

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    2. I would do both trades.

       The Cubs deal would give us a much needed bat in Schwarber and 2 nice pitching prospects with TOR upside.

       The Boston deal gives us two nice LHP prospects that could help solidify our rotation down the road. Margot is a speedy CF, with a plus hit tool and speed. While we need more bats than arms, this deal would give us depth to trade from to bring in a young bat if need be.

       Pap is having a really nice spring, I really hope he can continue having success and bring us bat a nice return in July.

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       1. IMO, I think the Phillies would look for only one pitcher in a Hamels return, preferably a lefthander like Owens. Then go for a catcher and/or maybe two outfielders. Ruben has stockpiled the system with arms at this point and may want to concentrate now on positional players. In the Sox case guys like Cecchini or margot may be available.
          I have to assume Betts, Bogaerts and Swihart will not be any part of a Hamels deal, though catcher Christian Vazquez could be.
          Understand Shane Vic is getting ridiculed from the Sox fans on their radio-feed from Boston….he alluded that the Sox should get Hamels and maybe give in, and send Betts to the Phillies, since he is ‘a prospect’ and nothing is certain about prospects.

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35. Bovada’s Phillies over-under:
    68.5 Team Wins
    13 1/2 HRs for Utley
    18 1/2 HRs for Howard
    40 1/2 SBs for Revere
    195 1/2 Ks for Hamels

    Mets-Yankees—81.5

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    1. I will take:
       – Under 68.5 wins, but just barely (say 67 wins)
       – Under on Utley HR’s. He is 36, and while injured in past years, has only exceeded 13.5 once in the past 4 years. (9 HR)
       – I will say Over 18.5 HR for Howard (22)
       – Under on 40.5 SB for Revere (I will say 32 – sensing a quad injury)
       – I will go over on K’s for Hamels (I will say 202)

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       1. I say under 68.5 wins, love love the 40.5 think he will get over 50 easily.

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          1. if Hamels gets traded in July, along with guys like Harang or Billingsley, I think I would favor the under on the 68.5
             Odd…Bovada has both New York teams the same..

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    2. 10 HRs for Utley. Sorry, the power is gone. He’s clearly been in the weight room, but I just don’t sense he can drive the ball beyond double length anymore.

       BUT, at least 28 for Ryan. I was in Clearwater this week, and, wow, he really is a great shape. I only saw one game, but I sensed his plate discipline is a bit better. He might still hit .235, but the legs, and the power, are back.

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36. Brady Aiken goes down to TJS . . Looks like the Astros knew what they were looking at. The question now is if he drops to the Phillies do you take him? W the success of the surgery I would def try it, it should also save money as a first round pick.

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    1. Yeah – feel sorry for the guy. Not sure if he would be available at 10, especially with a draft that those in the know view as weak. Jeff Hoffman went at 9 last year following TJ, and I believe Aiken is viewed as the better prospect.

       The Astros would pass on him (twice). Not sure if other teams between 5-9 would all pass.

       All in all, the situation was not good for the Astros nor Aiken. He thought he had 6.5MM and was on to the start of a career. An MRI later, his offer is cut to roughly $3mm. Some negotiations later, if I recall, the offer went up to 5MM. Lots of burned bridges, he said, she saids. All in all not good.

       If available, I would certainly look at him. He has #1 potential. There is risk, of course, but lots of upside.

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37. http://sports.yahoo.com/news/rookies-yasmany-tomas–kris-bryant-looking-cold-at-hot-corner-023018525.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma

    Tomas is apparently starting out slow which may dismay those who thought ‘automatic stud.’

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    1. I still think Yas Tomas will do well at the plate.
       Not so sure at 3rd. Learning a new position in 4/5 weeks at the MLB level, and also getting acclimated to the US are big steps for any first0time 24-year old from another country.

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       1. Romus to your knowledge has any of these big Cuban signing, not panned out.?

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          1. rocco….concerning the Phillies, MAG….but his price tag went down during negotiations due to arm/elbow issues.
             Dayan Viciedo, Henry Urratia, Misael Siverio, Juan Serrano, Jose Ruiz, Omar Rodriguez are a few later year signees who have yet to make it or did make it and have fallen a bit.
             But to be honest not sure if they were really high bonus signees.

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             1. None of the signees from the past year, maybe two, have proven anything.

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                1. Actually one cannot expect anyone signed after the season started in 2014 ie May, to have made any major impact. But those signed at high bonuses, prior to 2014 should be doing something somewhere, and MAG is in that category.

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38. He would have been nice to see in LF for the Phils. I like Grady Sizemore. I like Frenchy. I have no need to see them play for the Phils this year. The Defensive concerns are nonsense. Look back at who has played LF for the team over the years. You can not get worse reads on the ball that Dom Brown. They did not get Tomas because they decided not to spend the $. If John Middleton had control of the team, I believe Tomas would be here.

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39. Watching the game on ESPN last night it sounds like there is mutual interest between the Phillies and Angels on a Chase Utley deal but no word if Utley is interested. But musing would you take Giavotella straight up for 26

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    1. I would prefer one of two LHP Sean Newcomb or RHP Joe Gatto, if they would be willing to trade either for Utley.

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       1. Money may be a bit of an issue for the Angels right now. Sounds as if they want to see how much they will save of the Hamilton suspension.

          And I’m not trying to ship Utley out of town its just that he if he wants to go deserves to leave with some dignity and finish up with a team that will at least be in the race come Oct.

          If you landed either of those pitchers that would be a steal

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       2. I would def take Newcomb however that would be a pretty big return for Utley, he’s a top 75 prospect who has a ceiling of a 2 (at least in my opinion), don’t think you can get that for Utley not to mention it was drafted less then a year ago (not that it can’t be done but it had to be a “PTBNL” correct?). I think Gatto is more reasonable however I don’t know that I’d want him. I’ve seen him throw in person several times (coaching against him) his stuff looked great but he’s barely over 5k/9 which is concerning g to me.

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          1. Yes. Gatto, as a local south Jersey kid, St Augustine’s, does not have a good K/9, but he is young still. There were questions about south Jersey kids and the level of competition they faced awhile back, but Mike Trout’s success, I would have thought put that to rest. I remember watching the Bull’s son in the Carpenter Cup back in the early 90s and he was smashing balls over the Vet’s fence, and that was as a sophomore at Holy Ghost, but years later after getting drafted by the LAD, faded

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             1. Years ago the kids in south jersey played in jersey. Now they travel to other states and face better players, They practice almost all year round , in cold weather inside places to practice. Cost the parents ton between hockey and baseball, for practice time and travel. One lady told me she payed 8000 for her 8 year old to play hockey, plus travel. nuts to me. But I used to spend 75 a hour for a hitting instructor .

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40. Chase Utley is my favorite Phillie and I have loved watching him play. That era is gone, and he does nothing to help the Phils rebuild into a good team, and I would make a trade in a minute. Do we realize that he still has 3 option years he can easily hit? A return even close to the one we got for Jimmy would be terrific.

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41. Another possible July trade chip is available and healthy- MIke Pelfrey.
    Maybe a Grady Sizemore, Jordan Danks or Cesar Hernandez could get him.

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