Open Discussion: Week of December 1, 2014

Weekly Discussion

In the Dominican Winter League.  Nefi Ogando made his debut for Aguilas Cibaenas.  He pitched a 2-hit, scoreless inning.  Luis Garcia made his debut in the same game for Estrellas de Oriente.  He allowed a hit, walk, and unearned run in his one inning.  Hector Neris had 2 more scoreless outings this past week.

In the Venezuelan Winter League, Ethan Martin was roughed up in his second appearance on the 24th, but came back with a scoreless effort in his next outing.  He pitched a total of 4 innings and allowed 3 earned runs on 5 hits, 4 walks, and struck out four.

The ABL seems to be taking its toll on most of our guys.  Dylan Cozens (.204) was 2 for 10 with 3 Ks this week and was relegated to pinch runner in Sunday’s game.  Brian Pointer (.207) was 0-12 with 4 Ks.  Mitch Walding (.218) was a productive 3-14 with a home run, walk, K, and 7 RBIs.  Chace Numata (.271) was 3-15 with 3 runs scored, 1 RBI, 2 Ks, 2 SB.

Off season stats for all Phillies players can be viewed at: http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=phi

With the signing of Yasmany Tomas by Arizona, the list of available free agent outfielders has become less appealing.  If the Phillies are to upgrade, they’ll have to do it from among these players –

Left Fielders – Melky Cabrera (30), Mike Carp (29), Endy Chavez (37), Tyler Colvin (29),
Nelson Cruz (34), Chris Denorfia (34), Cole Gillespie (30), Jonny Gomes (34), Tony Gwynn Jr. (32), Scott Hairston (35), Reed Johnson (38), Jason Kubel (33), Ryan Ludwick (36), Nyjer Morgan (34), Mike Morse (33), Delmon Young (29)

Center Fielders – Emilio Bonifacio (30), Ezequiel Carrera (28), Endy Chavez (37), Nyjer Morgan (34), Colby Rasmus (28)

Right Fielders – Nori Aoki (33), Endy Chavez (37), Tyler Colvin (29), Nelson Cruz (34),
Chris Denorfia (34), Scott Hairston (35), Torii Hunter (39), Nick Markakis (31),
Alex Rios (34), Nate Schierholtz (31), Ichiro Suzuki (41)

On the pitching front, none of the top FA pitchers has signed.  But Oakland has been shopping Jeff Samardzija.  The Mets have been reported as actively trying to trade Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee or Jon Niese.  Maybe the Mets are trying to exploit the market between the Phillies’ asking price for Cole Hamels and what teams are willing to trade.

229 thoughts on “Open Discussion: Week of December 1, 2014”

  1. Let me see…. Colon is 41 years old. He’s a 5’11” 285 pound bowling ball. But somehow he can still pitch. In his last 3 seasons he’s won 43 games. He pitched over 200 innings last year. How long can he keep doing it? He makes $11M next year. Not to jump on the Amaro idiot express but maybe the Phillies can trade Crawford and Nola (PTBNL) to the Mets for him and then extend him through his 50th year?

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  2. Mets could dangle Noah Syn, Jon Niece, D.Gee,. or Zach Wheeler to Sox for Bogaerts.
    Mets are loaded with pitching it would appear.

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  4. Any meaningful long-term improvements will have to come from within, which is why these next few drafts are so important. Some good, old-fashioned luck would help too (i.e.–stealing a Victorino in the Rule 5 Draft, picking up a Jayson Werth for nothing).

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    1. In the Rule 5 in 10 days there are some interesting names.
      Ruben keeps talking about pitching needs, but Delino Deshields is available. He would be an intriguing option as a positional player.
      As for revisiting history….in any event, he could be better then Michael Martinez.

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        1. Yes…better look closer at the prospects/players on the Astros 40…..these are not your old Astros.
          He has baseball skills…..his attitude may need some adjustments.

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            1. This write up in Baseball America seems to say he is adequate in CF.
              http://ht.ly/ETqoG

              His range factor and fielding percentage seem to suggest he’s not a very good 2nd baseman. But he’s got high upside with excellent on base skills, tremendous speed and some pop. And it wouldn’t be a huge leap from AA ball. If he’s there, he’s definitely worth taking a chance on. As is mentioned below, Cody Martin is another intriguing option as MLB ready back of the rotation starter, but someone else might grab him before the Phils pick.

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  5. The Tomas option has sailed, but look at those free agent OFs. No wonder many of us wanted to take a chance on him. There are so many holes on this team that it will take 3 more excellent drafts to try to fill them. Who here has that much faith in this organization? The Phils have to get lucky in the Rule5, and in trying to take a shot on an injured player coming back. And then, lucky again with some of the prospects they have. Then spend smartly in free agency. Does that sound like a tall order? Who is the #1 pick in the 2016 draft? That may be our target!

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    1. Continuing to draft well and uncover quality in Katin Anerica (both of which the club has done well over the last 2 seasons at least) is essential. You are also waiting for payroll flexibility which is likely 2 years away.

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    2. The problem with 3 more drafts is that it then takes several more seasons for the players to mature through the farm.

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      1. for this team to get back to the point of being competitive, my crystal ball shows the following:

        1) 2-3 more years of stinking. As a result of the stinking, hope that you are able to draft a future all star, and at least one other every day regular

        2) Continued progression from the few young players that are deemed as solid, future regulars

        3) a player or 2 from our 5-15 prospect range who turns into a solid regular

        4) treading lightly in free agency this year. Next year, become more active, and then all-in the following year

        A trade of Hamels could increase the # of players who fall in #2 above, while at the same time increasing the odds of picking in the top 5 for the next few years.

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      1. Kelly Dugan in RF and Aaron Altherr in CF are possibilities as they will be at AAA next year but Dugan has to stay healthy and Altherr has to hit better. Both have to have good seasons but at the worst they could be #4 or #5 outfielders. Matt Winkleman is higher on Dugan but thinks Altherr could help the Phillies as a reserve OF.

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    1. I wonder if that will open a trade possibility for Michael Saunders….he is an interesting OFer that can play all three OF positions.

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            2. Brown’s limited defensive abilities make it a difficult straight-up swap. Mariners may Phillipe Aumont back to make it a more equitable exchange! 😉

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        2. He does have a back problem which is concerning.
          But if you can get the 2014 numbers from him for a full year he would be a pretty good pick-up.

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  8. Trading Hamels and Byrd is really the starting point for this team. The return on those two guys plays a big role on how fast we can contend. They also need to continue to draft well and develop their players.

    The days of drafting guys like LGJ have to be over because this organization has had not luck at discovering talent that way. They need to go with more proven players until they can afford to take a risk here and there. The last two drafts have gone very well and that needs to continue.

    I am all for getting Deshields in the rule 5, or another player who could stick around next season. Deshields could be a nice player to have in case Quinn doesn’t meet expectations. Worst case he gets sent back and we have an open spot for someone else. The time to take risks is now. As much as I hate to say it I hope we can net a top 5 pick next season.
    We could really use a top 20 prospect to get excited about.

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    1. I recall reading somewhere that Minnesota left someone unprotected who would be intriguing. I am drawing a blank on who, though. I realize that’s not helpful.

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      1. Twins left off four from their 40. Three pitchers and an infielder.
        Jason Adam-RHP
        Adrian Saicedo-RHP
        Sean Gilmartuin-LHP
        Levi Michael-Middle Inf

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        1. Yes – Sean Gilmartin. Former 1st round pick of the Braves (2011), and if nothing else he could be a solid LOOGY this year.

          Also, check out Taylor Featherston from the Rockies. Potential utility infielder with right handed power. I would love for the Phillies to get him and give him a chance.

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    2. A Yoan Moncada signing would be a great way to start the rebuild.
      He will cost under $45/50M and the max penalty to go with it plusa two year restriction on LA/inter signings at a specific cost, but what the heck, Philies didn’t sign anyone between 2001 (Lee and Kim) and 2011 (Tocci) over $300K.

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  9. I hold out hope that if they can continue to draft in the Top 10 you can spin a franchise pretty quick. Every few seasons there are guys like Buster Posey and Ryan Braun that come in a hurry.

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    1. That, and unlike most teams wallowing in the Top 10 of the draft for multiple seasons, the Phils have the financial clout to be players in FA- at least they will within a couple of years

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  10. The question regarding free agent spending is ‘do you trust the Phillies to make the right choices?’

    Top tier talent is not making it to free agency and the CBA focuses on building from within.

    Spending money is not a problem, spending money wisely is the problem.

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    1. Making the right decisions is all conjecture IMO. I mean just look at this past off season and how things shook out. The Tigers seemingly make a brilliant move to add Price (get swept) the A’s arguably the best team in baseball leading up to the Lester trade then boom leveled by a team that barely made the playoffs.

      If you ask me ( I know you’re not asking me) these guys are more lucky than good as opposed to being some type of smarter than the next FO. I think the only difference between them is budget and how far removed they are from their last burn in FA. The Yankees not included in that last statement. They are the Bart Simpson that keeps sticking their fingers in the electrical outlet.

      These teams that appear to know something that no other org knows is more often than not a product of “this is all we can afford” cough cough “Brandon Moss” and when the player has a nice run because of low expectations the teams that let said player go are some how dumb and dumber.

      Look at the other FA 1Bs from 2012 and you’ll see why the A’s wound up with Moss at not Napoli or Laroche.

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      1. But organizations like the Red Sox and the Cardinals are clearly better than the Phils. Time will tell if the Dodgers and Cubs join them.

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      2. I think it is luck at the start but over time luck has less and less to do with it as a GM becomes more familiar with the talent on the team and on the farm.

        A good GM has a feel for talent. That crucial bit of feel is not on the Phillies.

        The Cardinals are a great example. They have a strategy and stick to it. There is no deviation from budget or plan.

        The most important item is that they do more with less resources which is where the Phillies fall flat.

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  11. I am hoping that Franco, Crawford, Quinn and Grullon can form a young nucleus and they can use free agents to supplement them. It is a shame that Asche can’t be molded into a 2nd baseman because he’d have real value at that position.

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  12. Since RAJ prioritizes pitching, why not gamble on Cody Martin (unprotected by Braves) in the Rule 5? A good chance to build on this young starter who’s been pretty steady for AAA Gwinnett.

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  13. I expect that our 2015 RF will be acquired in a trade, either for Byrd or probably for Hamels. I expect Dom and Revere to stay where they are with Sizemore as the 4th OF although they could also easily sign a right handed hitting 4th OF to share RF with Sizemore. Byrd will get us back something of value. The winter meetings are next week and I think he’ll likely get traded at the meetings.

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    1. I think some deals will happen next week. If he comes down then the Phillies can move forward but we need some specific pieces.

      A corner OF, 2B, and C prospects are highest on the list.

      In terms of hitters we need power, someone to fill the four spot.

      For me, a top power hitting prospect trumps the others in a major way.

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  14. Hopefully Lester’s meeting with the Giants goes well today. Taking him away from the Cubs and Red Sox would make the chances of Hamels being traded increase.

    I wouldn’t count the Mariners completely out on Byrd. Reports say they still want a RF and Byrd,Cano,Cruz would be a nice middle of the order. Also after a 4 year deal for Cruz a short term deal for Byrd at far less money may be appealing.

    I wonder if the giants did sign Lester if they’d have interest in Byrd. Byrd’s bat could help replace Sandoval and he could play LF.

    I wonder if they would trade Ty Blach or Clayton Blackburn and Joan Gregorio or Gary Brown.

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    1. I saw this. I tried to justify it. Alou, the kid’s agent, said some interesting things. First, he said the Phils needed to “clear salary” before making an offer. Second, he said “”The player wanted to sign, I was willing to wait as long as I could. He wanted to sign with someone. It’s a great opportunity for him in Arizona.”

      The 1st part reiterates what was said in the media earlier. It also means that Amaro wasn’t in control of the decision. The 2nd part, feels like there weren’t many offers for Tomas. It sounds like the agent was looking for a bidding war that never materialized. Maybe Arizona made the only legitimate offer? So there were a lot of teams that decided against signing him.

      I’m just reading between the lines.

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      1. The problem with all of this is that we are just guessing about what happened and why. The Phillies might not have been all that interested in Tomas and may have just made an excuse to the agent – we have no idea.

        However, if the move was blocked due to concerns about the team’s inability to “clear salary,” then we know that the team’s old, conservative guard remains firmly entrenched. The thought process for these folks is “we are not a good team and our management team has told us we won’t be good for a while and our fan base is shrinking – so we are we increasing salary? No salary increases until we are good again – let’s stop wasting money.” Judging on historic behavior, this is how I believe they think.

        I hope to God Middleton can either become majority owner or form an alliance with one or more of the other part owners to move this organization forward into the 21st century. And I do think that Montgomery and his approach is a big part of what is dragging this team down. Dave, get healthy, live well, and please retire already.

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        1. This is all romus fault, his money got there late for season tickets. Amaro couldn’t get the extra 5500 he needed to sign Tomas. What a disgrace, This was said before and pass on as bull. Amaro cant do anything without clearing money. Where is the Comcast money. I believe the worst part is Giles , Montgomery and others are blocking Middleton on getting majority ownership. so we are stuck with this group of losers running the show.

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          1. rocco….yes you are spot on again…cannot get anything pass you for sure….I take full responsibility for the Tomas fiasco, since I only put down half-payment for tixs at the time last month. If they…Alou and Tomas…. could have waited another week they would get the remaining half of the money I owe the Phillies Oy ve!.
            Moncada up next.

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        2. catch…I hate to think that, but apparently it is what you say it is. In spite of the Comcast windfall that will occur soon, this organization is a rather frugal, thrifty, penny-pinching, chintzy, miserly. scrimpy, tight-as-a-frog’s -arse organization……but lets not call them cheap, or another debate will ensue.

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        3. Pretty much this. I would add, however:

          (1) The defensive concerns appear to be real and shared by several teams.If his defense is REALLY bad he won’t bring enough offense to the table to be more than a decent regular, say the 2013 version of Brown.

          (2) The opt out makes him much less attractive, especially for a team that won’t be competing for at least the next couple of years.

          Still a little disappointed – they have the money and really nowhere better to spend it over the next couple of years. And if the reports about a need to clear salary are true, that’s very problematic going forward.

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          1. I think it could also have been that the Phillies decided, for better or worse, to ride Dom Brown for another year and there was no way they could put Tomas and Dom in the OF together so they pulled out of the discussions.

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        1. It won’t be smart move if he is not a good player and then his agent cost him over $40 million dollars because of the opt-out clause. We have to wait to find the answer out.

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        2. ‘Zona QOs Tomas in four years….and gets a high supp/comp pick….though there are those who think that club option will go away with the next CBA.

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          1. The Qualifying Offer for Free Agents has a good chance to be removed in the 2016 CBA negotiations as the Player Association will fight for that..

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      3. It would be difficult to sign Tomas or any major Free Agent as long as Ryan Howard is on the roster and we have to pay his salary. The Phillies will be lucky if they have to pay less than $50 million to move him this winter even though there are some AL teams that could use a DH.

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        1. While that may be true in the minds of the owners, it is not true as a matter objective reality. As bad as the Howard contract is, the organization going forward has one of the lowest totals of future salary commitments in baseball. In 2015 they still will have one of the higher payrolls, but:

          (1) It’s lower than it was, in absolute and (especially) in relative terms,
          (2) They are not particularly close to the luxury tax threshold,
          (3) The payroll obligations go down dramatically after 2015, and
          (4) While obviously we aren’t privy to revenue numbers, I’d be incredibly shocked if, even for 2015, the team was in any real danger of running in the red. And after 2015, absent a huge free agent spending spree, the team will be immensely profitable.

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          1. I am not seeing where all this money coming off the books is coming from. It is possible that this is the case but it is hardly guaranteed the way Amaro handed out easily reached vesting optiions. The only salary that is truly expiring is Rollins. And at $10 million isn’t bad for a man that was #4 in fWAR for his position last year.

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            1. Aron, he’s talking about existing contractual obligations after 2015 – not stupid decisions going forward, of which, I trust, there will be many.

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            3. And of course those numbers include Hamel’s salary, who I now feel pretty certain won’t be here by at least the 2015 offseason.

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            4. Lee comes off after 2015, unless he pitches 200 innings in 2015 (there is a half-salary buyout), Utley comes off after 2015 unless he has 500 AB in 2015 (there is a lower priced team option, if he misses 500 AB, depending upon how many games he is not on DL; only $2 mill buyout), Papelbon is off after 2015, unless he finishes about 50 games.

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            5. Larry — It’s not a case of ‘the options may add a little’ in 2016. The options may add $34 million in 2016 among Utley, Papelbon, and Byrd. That’s more than a little.

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            6. And even then they would be around 100 million for 2016, much lower than even 2015. Maybe – maybe – 20 to fill out the roster and you’re still miles from the luxury tax threshold. And I think there’s a very good chance that Byrd is traded and Papelbon’s option doesn’t vest, putting them even lower.

              Fans need to stop imagining that the team is seriously constrained by contractual obligations. Those days are gone. They are not an issue even 2015, given that they shouldn’t and won’t spend big on free agents in 2015. To get back to the original point, they EASILY could have afforded Tomas.

              Now, it may be true that the ownership felt constrained by those contracts. But there is no reason for fans to buy into that particular delusion, and I’d think you would be the last person to do so.

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            7. Larry – I certainly buy that the team should be able to spend. They got a windfall when Burnett declined his option, so they have almost $13 million less in commitments for 2015 than they thought they did. Still, their actions on Tomas suggest a team that is reluctant to spend — for whatever reason. I think it’s the dumb approach for them to take — they either spend to add some guys who give hope for a fairly quick turnaround and less than total 2015 awfulness, or they sit back and watch attendance take another big step down in 2015.

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            8. I am not seeing how you are getting $100 Million If Lee, Utley and Pap all hit their options and no one got traded they would be on the hook for almost $130 Million for just 8 players. Lee $27.5, Howard $25, Hamels $23.5, Utley $15, Papelbon $13, Ruiz 8.5, Byrd $8, MAG 4.67. And if Utley can stay healthy he is playing into perpetuity (well through 2018 anyway).

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            9. I’m assuming Lee’s contract doesn’t vest (or if it does he gets traded); that’s at least half of the disagreement. I’m too busy at work to figure out the source of the rest of the disagreement.

              I think the chance of Lee being healthy enough to pitch 200 innings is probably, oh, 10% maybe? Maybe a little higher.

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  17. There is no surprise. There is not a chance that the Phils are in on Moncada. All that was said above is true. The league wants to discourage the high bonuses to these guys and wants to force them into a draft. The Phils, regardless of the amount of $ that they have, are firmly entrenched in the pocket of the Commisioner. It is not the $, the penalty towards future signings or any of that. It is the acting counter to how the Commissioner’s office wants them to act. It is the same philosophy, the Giles philosophy, that stopped them from any over slot spending in the Draft, before there was a slotting system, and their revenue could have given them an advantage. Not a chance they defy the league and take the penalties and sign Moncada.

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    1. Well lets see they are in the commissioner pocket so true. Larry saying we shouldn’t buy into team is restricted. How do you make a statement like that seeing how they have ignored the talent in the draft, but not signing top ten guys, not spending what they could in latin market omg how much evidence do you have to see to prove they wont even try to improve until they unload contracts, which they gave out. Do these owners want to win sure , will they do whatever it takes to win. no way, its money and the bottom line to them is, not to pay luxury tax and not to go big after talent in other markets. in the draft if it will piss off the commissioner, we don’t do it even if it will help us win.

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  18. BA also wrote a GREAT article on interesting names for the Rule 5 draft and I have to admit I’m more than a little geeked about some of the names
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/notable-players-available-rule-5-draft/
    The last paragraph about “injury stashing” was also an interesting concept.
    I think it might be worth a chance to pick up a Delino Deshields. He HAS to know what the word is on him and may even be a candidate for real change….who knows???

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    1. Really enjoyed this. Plenty of interesting guys that I think we should take and at least give them a shot to make the team in spring training.

      I would love to get another power arm to add to Giles and Diekman in the pen or even a starter that could serve as a swing man.

      Stilson is a guy I like. I am not sure how long he is out for though. He’s a top 20 prospect in the blue jays system and had good numbers at AAA last year. If we can afford to stash him on the roster I think he’d be a good pickup.

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    2. Ryan, thanks for bringing that article to our attention and it looks like the Phillies should get some interesting talent.

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    3. Its amazing how many former 1st round picks are on this list. There are definitely a few guys who were hurt previously who are worth a flyer if they’re now healthy. They would be competing with Cesar Hernandez for the 25th spot. he has no options left however and cant be sent down without releasing him first.

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    4. As I posted a few days ago…Jarlin Garcia, or maybe even Greg Infante are two pitchers I would be willing to stash, or DeShields as the positional player if they go that route.
      Ruben has said he is looking for pitching.

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  19. Let’s start of this post with the following assumptions:

    • The talent on the Phillies current roster has 2 players who will be above average or better in 4/5 years at their respective positions:
    o C. Hamels
    o M. Franco
    • The talent in the minor league system (and I’m going to be generous in my projections here), has the following likely 4/5 year projection:
    o One #3 pitcher (Nola)
    o Several #4/5 pitchers (take your pick)
    o 1 All-Star SS (JP)
    o Several below average IF (take your pick)
    o Several below average OF (take your pick)
    o 1 Above average CF (Quinn)
    o 1-2 Average Regulars in either OF or IF
    o No average or better catching prospects
    o 1 top tier closer (Giles)

    So, let’s build a contending roster in 5 years:

    #1 Pitcher – ?
    #2 Pitcher – ?
    #3 Pitcher – Nola (3 WAR)
    #4 Pitcher – Biddle? (or easy pick-up via FA)
    #5 Pitcher – Any number of possible options

    Closer: Ken Giles
    Setup: ?

    1B – ?
    2B – ?
    SS – JP Crawford (5 WAR)
    3B – Franco (3 WAR)
    C – ?

    LF – ?
    RF – ?
    CF – Quinn (3 WAR)

    So at this point we’ve got 3 positions, 1 pitcher, and 1 closer covered with acceptable talent for a contending team.

    Say we trade Hamels and Byrd, and are lucky enough to hit a single home run in the whole group of acquired talent. We’ll say for arguments sake we pick up a 2B who ends up either above average regular or as an all-star.

    At this point we still have to fill 7 positions, a #1 & #2 SP, 1B, C, LF, and RF. Say we can fill #2 SP, and an average or better LF and RF via FA or other luck in our current minor league complex. At this point, we won’t contend without a Stud 1B, Catcher, or #1 SP which likely would have to come via trading away all our minor league talent, or somehow, getting back to back homerun’s in the next two drafts.

    Want to know what that player looks like? He’d hit A/A- ball and dominate immediately, putting up league MVP numbers, and being promoted towards the end of his first year in the minors.

    So, that’s my path to a world series, anyone have anything to add, would love to hear it… could use something to perk me up about the future of this franchise, I’m not feeling too optimistic at this point.

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    1. Boy, this was an excellent post – I pretty much agree with all of your future assessments. Great job.

      I will say, however, the bullpen should be a very big strength going forward for many years. You could end up with a bullpen that produces something like 5 or 6 WAR – not an insignificant piece of the puzzle. I am hoping there is some way to convert one of those bullpen pieces into a viable starting pitcher, like the Cubs did with Jeff S.

      As for filling position roles, we have to hope that the team gets lucky with a few of their existing prospects aside from Franco and Crawford (I think you nail the value of these guys and Nola precisely).

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      1. Thanks Catch! I just don’t see any scenario where the Phillies can contend which doesn’t involve an insane amount of luck. Not that insane luck doesn’t occur (see 2008), but it’s just going to be really difficult without some “best in MLB” drafts in the next two years.

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        1. Some luck, sure. But they are likely to have very little payroll after the 2016 season. With that alone they should be able to spend themselves back to mediocrity at least. At that point a lot less luck is needed to take the next step.

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          1. I agree that they can spend themselves back into mediocrity, which is why I’ve included middling FA acquisitions in my “plan”. The problem is, to be a contender, you need several players that produce 5+ WAR’s, and to be honest, those players aren’t readily available on the FA market, and when they are, it’s no sure thing the Phillies will be able to sign them. (in addition to the contracts being outrageous). It’s one thing to forecast adding one “difference making” player via FA, an entirely different thing to add 2+ of those players.

            Take a look at 2011, a team that was a contender from spring training until they were out of the playoffs… how many players did that team have that had a 3+ WAR?

            I’ll save you the time, because here is why those Phillies were contenders:

            Halladay – 8.9
            Lee – 8.6
            Hamels – 6.6
            Shane Victorino – 5.4
            Chase Utley – 3.8
            Vance Fucking Worley – 3.4

            Based on the above projections, we’ll likely have 2 and they would provide less value then any of the top 4 players on that 2011 roster.

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          2. I agree that they can spend themselves back into mediocrity, which is why I’ve included middling FA acquisitions in my “plan”. The problem is, to be a contender, you need several players that produce 5+ WAR’s, and to be honest, those players aren’t readily available on the FA market, and when they are, it’s no sure thing the Phillies will be able to sign them. (in addition to the contracts being outrageous). It’s one thing to forecast adding one “difference making” player via FA, an entirely different thing to add 2+ of those players.

            Take a look at 2011, a team that was a contender from spring training until they were out of the playoffs… how many players did that team have that had a 3+ WAR?

            I’ll save you the time, because here is why those Phillies were contenders:

            Halladay – 8.9
            Lee – 8.6
            Hamels – 6.6
            Shane Victorino – 5.4
            Chase Utley – 3.8
            Vance Worley?!?!?!?! – 3.4

            Based on the above projections, we’ll likely have 2 and they would provide less value then any of the top 4 players on that 2011 roster.

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            1. On the contrary, the Giants “only” had 4 players of +3 WAR this year and only one over 5 (Posey). The 2011 Phils were a pretty remarkable collection of star power and not a realistic blue print moving forward

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            2. Fair Point, but I wouldn’t say an 88 win team is a team to aspire to if we’re talking about “contenders” regardless of if they managed to win a WS. Your argument is the equivalent of saying “lets be a borderline playoff team and hope we can win one”.

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            4. But then what are you saying? It’s hard to put together a 90+ win team with the kind of balanced, relatively lacking in star power roster that the Giants had this year. Possible but tough. Really they were more atypical than the 2011 Phillies.

              If you look at supra’s hypothetical (which is what we are talking about), you get to a 90+ win team one of two ways. You can add a couple stars and a bunch of average players, or add a bunch of above average players. Yes, either works, and neither is likely, but the former is probably a bit more of a realistic goal.

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            5. Worley developed injury problems. He started out very well and looked to have a good career ahead of him. He seems to be back. He had a 2.85 ERA in half a season for Pittsburgh this year and ended the year with a 2.35 ERA for September.

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            6. I wasn’t arguing for being a borderline playoff team. What I meant was a) you don’t need a team full of stars like the 2011 Phillies to contend, and 2) I don’t think they have to get “lucky” to get back to (contention well, any more than any team needs some amount of luck to contend). You need Franco/Nola/Biddle to reach hit their projections and make smart FA signings with extreme amount of money the club will have available for 2016-17.

              Now if he was arguing on what was needed to recreate the must successful regular season team in franchise history, well then that’s difference. I guess it depends on how you define “contend”.

              And Supra, your initial post is a very good one and a worthy discussion starter

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        2. They will need some of the really young prospects to develop (i.e., Mecias, Encarnacion), the existing advanced prospects to hit their projected ceilings (Franco, Crawford, Nola Quinn, Dugan, Gonzalez, Ogando, etc. . . ), make a really good trade or two, and be smart with FA signings and the draft. But it’s about as depressing a situation as I’ve seen in quite some time – probably since the late 80s (the late 90s were also bad, but there was hope in the form of Rolen, Abreu, Lieberthal and Wolf – you could see they were going to get better soon).

          Right now I emphathize with Jets fans – the fans are there, the revenue is there, the city is dying for a winner – but management is so defiicent that they just keep chasing their tails, doing the same dumb things over and over again.

          How bad is that? Amaro started with a young championshp team, money, fans, the potential of a big new TV contract, and tons of good will and he (with a nice assist from Dave Montgomery) has turned that into this expensive turd. It’s shameful. I’m praying they can turn the page, but the team has sunk so far so fast that, without a lot of luck, it’s going to take quite a bit of time.

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    2. Yes, we need a surprise or two to develop in 2015 or there will be dark days ahead. We need Dom or Asche to become a player, we need at least one of the minor league OFs (Dugan, Altherr, Cozens, Brown, ert) to take a huge step up and we need a starting pitcher to emerge (Mecias, Liebrandt, etc) in a big way. The other difference I have to your list above is that I think we have more relievers who are keepers and the pen should be fine. That plus I’m still naively hopeful that the Hamels trade will be able to fill 2 holes on this list. And in a perfect world, Lee will pitch well and pitch himself off the team at the trading deadline and get us back another piece. There’s always the chance that we could trade Pap when he only has 1 year left and get something then too.

      Like

    3. As for catching….Grullon or Knapp may be players in that timeframe you set. I think they will be more the serviceable assets.

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    4. Great post, it underlies why they need to make some moves this offseason and trade Paps, Hamels, Chooch, and Byrd.

      Outside of the top three prospects (Quinn, Crawford, Franco) and a few pitching prospects the cupboard is bare.

      A 10-15 prospect from the Phillies farm system is nowhere near the same as a 10-15 prospect from the Cardinals.

      Spending their way out of this mess is not going to work under the new CBA. It is all about development and losing draft picks with an already weak system is not the smartest way to rebuild a roster.

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  20. I agree with Supra’s post. It nailed it right on the head. 4-5 years is the soonest that I can see daylight. Had they signed Tomas, and he worked out to be a 30HR hitter, and they get Moncada, and they get the Japanese P, and then hit a HR in the draft and then go spend wildly in FA next off season,and get it right, and get a HR from a Hamels trade, then the timetable gets advanced. But, none, if any, of that is happening.

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    1. If I’m Phillies ownership, I sign Moncada for whatever it takes to get it done. If that’s a 8 year 100m dollar contract so be it. To turn this ship around, he’d be a key piece.

      He’s essentially the perfect age for the next window of opportunities for this team, he’d be 25 when we were able to compete and entering his prime years. Of course, that all boils down to the scouts believing he’ll be a borderline All-Star type player or better. If he is, he’ll be worth every penny of the 8/100m which would carry him through to age 28 (allowing him to hit free agency in a big way while retaining his best years 25-28).

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        1. I couldn’t agree more, I think the odds the Phillies sign any big ticket player are slim right now, let alone one out of cuba… Doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be the quickest way to right the ship.

          Like

      2. I just don’t think they’ll sign one guy for all that money and then not be able to sign anyone else for 2 years. You’d have to be positive that this kid was a likely all star and I don’t think anyone can know yet. My guess is that the agent will wait to sign him until more teams are allowed to bid on him because certain important teams are out right now.

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        1. Depends, I’d accept a reasonable offer today if I was this kid. Reasonable offer being the key phrase. Especially now that the market rate has been set for the year by Tomas.

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        2. Incorrect on the inability to sign anyone for two years if they sign Moncad.
          There is a $300K threshold they cannot go over …they can still sign international players, but are restricted.
          Between 2001 (Lee and Kim) and 2011 (Tocci), they signed zilch international players over that threshold from what I have found.
          Got lucky with Ruiz…was Robinson Tejada a winner signing?
          Carlos Carrasco could be a winner
          And there was another tall Latin pitcher who ended up pitching for the Cubs and Seattle. Are Galvis and Hernandez hits?
          Who else was there.
          Tocci in ’11 started the resurgence for the big bonus LA market signing again.
          Cannot see the two year hiatus having that big a deal in the grand scheme.
          The penalty tax to this club is what scares them.

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          1. To be fair, Carrasco signing for $300K in 2003 is like someone signing for $800K to a million these days. Though the main point I agree with. If the Phillies were limited to $300K signings they should just do 10 of them each year and end up in close to the same place as 1 or 2 big signings. If Moncada is similar to a 1-1 type draft pick, he may be worth $80 million (40 bonus/40 penalty) to have the rights to his 6 pre-arbitration years.

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            1. The penalty makes it pretty equivalent to a Japanese player with the posting fee, although obviously a much younger guy. There are no sure things, but he comes with as bright a scouting report as one could hope for. He’s the equivalent of a top 2 or 3 guy in the draft.

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            2. andyb ….actually 2003 $$$ vs 2014 $$$ is not that drastic of a change…delta $87K inflation number……

              Inflation Calculator


              ……………..but you get my point…..also the Phillies seeem to go cheap on future amateur talent and over-spend on veteran outlying years. Perhaps it is just Ruben’s philosophy blessed by Monty and Giles.

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  21. Someone said earlier, I believe, that it appears that whoever has the final say on expenses is saying do make any substantial purchases, as the team will not compete in 2015. Use the resources to rid themselves of Howard’s/Papelbon’s contracts, and see if Ruf/Franco/Giles can take their places. Maybe not a bad idea for 2015. But, my problem becomes, since you have to eat almost those entire salaries to get nothing in return, why demand a huge return from the Yankees for Rollins, when they offered to pay his entire contract and still give you some kind of a prospect? How does JRoll at SS for a bottom 5 team make any sense? Isn’t that $11Million enough for Tomas for 2015? Doesn’t Lee’s $25Million come off next? Doesn’t the Cable deal then kick in? So how can $ be the reason not to sign Tomas? He was easily affordable for 2015 and becomes more affordable over the subsequent 3 years. You can eat close to $60Million to get rid of Howard and play Ruf and Franco. You can eat $20Million or so to get rid of Papelbon, but taking a chance on Tomas makes no financial sense?

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    1. The more I read about the Thomas deal the more I think that the D-backs offer was not only the highest offer it was the only offer on the table.

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      2. That may be true for the opt-out clause contract as it was rumored that San Diego was offering 112 million for six years but that was rumor.

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  22. I know I have to get over complaining about not getting Tomas, but I convinced myself they did not get Castillo because they preferred him. Are Medlin or Beachy worth taking a chance on? Both non-tendered, fit the budget, may be worth the small risk.

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    1. Absolutely. We’re thin on SP and they represent low risk, high up-side players in their primes. The payoff could be huge if one (I’m especially thinking Medlen) comes back strong. And they’re young enough that they could either be a part of the next core, or we could get more in a trade because they’re cost-controlled in their prime years.

      Unless they’re asking upwards of 8M+ and/or 4+ years, I say take a shot. They probably just want a 1 year deal to re-establish their value anyways.

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  23. Cards sign Matt Belisle, 1yr 3.5 Million. Not a big deal, but some incentives. Probably will pitch very well for the Cards. No 2 vesting years or that nonsense. They seem to know what they want to do whether trades or FA signings and go do it. The opposite of the Phils approach

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    1. No, that was exactly the Phillies approach. RAJ got guys signed early. Picked FA he wanted, whether Lee for a ton of money, Burnett for a half ton, or Ruiz and Byrd for a third of a ton and quickly got the job done. That this isn’t happening this year says to me that the Phillies have either decided that they won’t be spending close to the lux cap or that the ownership dispute/Monty illness has the team paralyzed for the moment. One of the things about RAJ is that he has usually gotten his man — at least while he had a big wad of $$ in his pocket. Something is very different this off-season.

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        1. As ridiculous as this statement struck me on first reading, I believe you are correct and that the majority of TPTB did actually still believe this going into last year’s off-season.

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  24. Listening to wip today. They are reporting Phillies and dodgers are talking about cole. Here is my question and I know Larry will say cant get any, but for discussion sake, if dodgers will part with one of them is it seager or Peterson.

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    1. rocco…….of more important good news…John Mayberry is now available as a free agent. Ruben needs to jump on board that express. Keep the tradition alive.

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      1. Romus already on that story, ruben is meeting with his agent tomorrow.. Jim Salisbury is saying, and I don’t know how reliable he is, that Howard wont be here on feb 18 first day of spring training. Even if the Phillies have to eat all his salary. and thinks Utley will play first if I heard him right,

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    2. If Lester goes to the Giants or they add a bat or two the Dodgers will probably need to make a move to improve. With Greinke possibly opting out of his deal after the season, Hamels could easily be used to replace him. IMO I think the Dodgers want Pederson to play in the OF next season and want Seager on the left side of their infield for years to come. I think Urias would be the guy they give in and trade. He is the furthest away than the other two and they have good starting pitching already before adding Hamels to the mix.

      Urias does make me a little nervous because his size does not fit the ideal starting pitcher, but his delivery does look pretty clean and the stuff is definitely there.

      I think if a package of Urias, Schebler, and Sweeney would be a very strong return for us.

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      1. ematt…I don’t know…I think you are selling very low on Hamels.
        Schebler has good numbers for guy who has been over-age at most all levels of play.I think you can throw Asche in LF and get the same or better production….plus Asche does have an arm and Schebler has only one position to play and that is LF because his arm is Revere-like..
        Urias is so far out…and pitchers are so volatile with their arms/elbows and shoulders issues always a concern on their next pitch.

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        1. I think Schebler would be a better option in LF than Asche, but I could see getting a better prospect than Schebler after Urias. I’m not sure how much better we could get though. Urias is #14 in the top 100 and #1 LHP prospect so getting him would already be a boost to the system. Urias is a guy who could move quickly through the ranks. His ETA is 2016 so that’s not far off considering we won’t be contending by then any way. I like Sweeney as well. He has good speed, gets one base a lot, and hits for extra bases. I like him as a 2B and LAD doesn’t have a huge need for him with Gordon at 2B and Seager to be at SS for a while until he possibly moves to 3B.

          I would gladly take either Pedro Baez or Yimi Garcia instead of Schebler. Either would be able to pitch in our pen next season. Our bullpen is good, but you can never have too many arms. Regardless of whether Pap is traded we will still need relievers long term. We could also store either at AAA and try to trade one or two relievers at the deadline (MAG, Bastardo, De Fratus, and Pap are all guys who could go).
          Would adding one of those arms in place of Schebler make you pull the trigger Romus?

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    3. I have to think they’d be more willing to part with Pederson than Seager, but I have to say that doesn’t really excite me unless Urias is included in the deal.

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    4. Bob Nightengale of the USA Today broke the story https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/539854334599901184

      If you read the comments under the tweet, most of the Dodgers fans would give up Pederson in a trade for Hamels in a second. They also suggest taking Utley and JR. Another suggested trading Kemp to Os for prospects and flipping those prospects (likely one of the their big 3 pitching prospects) to the Phillies.

      On other news, several boston papers have talked about Hamels. They are in agreement that nothing will get done until Lester makes a decision. But if they miss on Lester, that Hamels is a legit target and that it would likely cost them either Xander or Betts.

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      1. Reports have Lester possibly signing by the end of the week. So Hamels could be a hot topic at the winter meetings. I read in a comment today (I believe from hardball talk) that someone with insider access read Lester is signing with the Cubs. Not sure if that insider was from ESPN or the voices in his head, but that would at least mean Boston could very possibly turn to Hamels.

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      2. If nothing else, the Phils needed the Dodgers story to get the Red Sox’ attention. They easily could have floated the story themselves. The Dodgers don’t want to trade Pederson though, they want to trade their veteran OFs (Kemp, Crawford, etc) so a 3 way deal is possible because teams want Kemp and will give up prospects to get him and the Dodgers want Hamels. Would we take Bundy plus another big time prospect from the Os plus Urias (and maybe Byrd goes to the Os also)? There’s no way the Dodgers will trade Seeger, he’ll be their SS in 2016. I still think the Phils can get 2 blue chip players.

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        1. How about Harvey, Cisco (a top catcher prospect), a 3rd Os prospect of lesser value and Urias to the Phillies, Kemp and Byrd to the Os and Hamels to the Dodgers?

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            2. The Ks are a little high but everything else screams elite. Guy had a .435 ob%. Was 30/30 guy with plus arm and plus defense. To me that is far less a risk than Urias.

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            3. I would grab him but does anyone know why the K’s jumped so much? Is it a problem of him hitting a particular pitch, not patient enough. It just seems odd.

              He had 100 walks last year and 149 K’s.

              I would love to get more information about the K’s and walks. How many were intentional and why the increase in strikeouts?

              The weird thing is it continued in September with the Dodgers. He had only 4 hits but 11 K’s and 9 walks.

              I like his power and potential but something just seems off there. It is apparent that he is a very patient hitter as evidenced by more walks than hits with the Dodgers but is he having problems with one pitch in particular?

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    5. Actually, I think one of those two guys is at least possible. (Different than Betts because Betts has already shown he can do it at the major league level).

      Where I disagree with the optimists around here is on the rest of the package.

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      1. The Phils have a lot of sweeteners to improve the package. Throwing in a LRP like Bastardo or a power hitting OF like Byrd or potentially convincing Jimmy or Chace to go home (LA) could really improve the return. Add in cash top could really help. I think SF signing Lester would be best scenario for us.

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  25. Boston GM on their needs

    Sounds a lot like Hamels and Bastardo package would check a lot of boxes.

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      1. For me personally the only way Giles is moved is if we are getting a major league player in return. I don’t think I could trade him for a prospect. He was absolutely dominant and should be our closer for quite some time.

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  26. I am happy to hear from LarryM that a Pederson or Seager is possible. Is Zach lee still a prospect for them? His name seems to have been around for years. And the Cuban IF they signed a few years ago. There seems to be more traction on the Eskin report of Middleton taking over control of the team. That is good news. Hamels has to get a substantial starter on the 2016 team and a # 3 P. Let Dodgers and Boston up the ante.

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    1. Chris Anderson maybe more of a prospect these days then Lee, however both sit in their top ten by most publications.

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      1. His health must come first, plus he turns 70 soon, so……
        Still think Ruben will get bumped up, when Pat Gillick decides to step aside.

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  27. If Middleton does take over, I think they go outside for a Team President, then leave it to him. Sure would have liked Andrew Friedman

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    1. If Middleton takes over there will be wholesale changes from top to bottom and I agree they will go outside for a Team President.

      You will see everyone jettisoned from top to bottom with new blood brought in.

      Could not come at a more opportune time.

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  28. Well, lots of action taking place in baseball….trades happening, ie JA Happ and Saunders one of the latest, and more to come.
    From Phillies Executive Offices….sounds of chirping crickets.

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    1. Would have liked to see Michael Saunders(though he has been injury prone and he is LH) here but we do not match up well with Seattle. I have a feeling nothing major will happen until the Middleton versus Giles group power struggle is resolved. Pray for a Middleton takeover!

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  29. Phil I wish someone could tell me how Middleton can take over. I was under the impression that the way Giles set up the group. He cant get control without Montgomery and giles and betz approval. Which I believe will never happen. Giles and Montgomery will never give up there bad advice and judgments on this team. I hope to god I am wrong.

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    1. One of the others would have to sell MIddleton their stake but the partnership agreement would have to be rewritten and approved by all of the limited partners before the sale could officially take place.

      Since it is the end of the year there may be some end of year tax maneuvers as well.

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    2. rocco……..Claire Betz has passed, remember the black patch the team wore last year (CB)? Her family may have to resolve her portion of the interest. Two of the three Buck brothers have now passed (Tri-Play Assoc), so that issue also may still need to be also resolved. There are more secrets in that whole scene, go figure, then the DOD has in their war-chest.

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      1. I am fairly certain (and I’ve said this before) that there are three primary owners — Middleton, Tri-Play (the Bucks), and the Betz’s. Giles and Montgomery own next to nothing, if they haven’t completely sold their interests. Middleton would have to up his steak to over 50% by acquiring most or all of either the Tri-Play interest or the Betz interest in the partnership. They wouldn’t have to re-write the partnership agreement. They’d just have to (most likely) get approval by all partners of the sale — and that may not be a small task, if one partner is willing to sell to Middleton, but the third major partner doesn’t want to sell and doesn’t want to yield control to Middleton if it means spending more on payroll (which could potentially mean the owners have to kick in more money, or otherwise see less profits)…

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        1. I’ll also note that Claire Betz’s interest remains in her family, and the deaths of Jim and Whip Buck wouldn’t have had any effect on Tri-Play’s interest in the Phillies (other than potentially changing the ownership of Tri-Play itself). If anything all of these deaths could make it more difficult for Middleton to gain control — if it means that interests formerly owned by one person now have to be shared by multiple heirs.

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  30. This is a Limited partnership, which has its own rules. The way it was set up, no one entity can own more than 50%. Middleton is up to 48% because he has accumulated shares from prior limited partners. Monty’s share is small, and no one has ever revealed how many shares Giles owns. But, all of the partners need to agree to change the structure of the limited partnership. Giles knew that he could never have the $ to buy out other shares and wanted to never be without a say. This is not going to change. Middleton has gotten things done before, and can exert influence, but the structure will not change as long as Giles is around.

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    1. Anonymous that’s what I thought. Giles only has 2 percent I believe. the way its structure just shows my point for years, Giles might be a nice guy, but he is the reason this team, wont be able to move forward as long as he has his say, I always believed and still do he is the one who has the most say. He is the man who stopped us in the draft, because of his dad, and in the international market, he wants a say in everything, And his puppet is Montgomery. I truly believe that he is the on who must go.

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  31. I can’t disagree, and also agree that, from everything I read and hear, he is a terrific guy. But, not an entrepreneur. He is not even an inherited wealth guy, just a working man, who fell into a great deal. He came here from Houston where he was in charge of the Astrodome scoreboard pyrotechnics, and came here to do marketing for the Phils. He brought in the helicopter drop and the Wallendas. I do not mean any disrespect when I say he is a marketer. When he was the de facto GM, he allowed Jim Baumer, who he got from the Milwaukee organization, to ruin the farm system. He said, in the days of the Vet, that the team was a small market team. Whatever money he has is from his jobs in the industry, pension, etc, and his piece of the team. But, that money only counts when he sells his piece, which he will not. So, he would never have the ability to buy the other shares, and that is the key to the structure. Any inherited shares that the families wants to sell, have to be offered to the other partners, and the Partnership agreement cannot be changed without all of the parties agreeing.

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  32. Who are the two major holders? It would have to be Middleton and ???? since Montgomery ad Giles shares are apparently small.

    Then who owns the other large stake?

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  33. Tri-Play, which was formed by the 3 Buck brothers, and Clare Betz’ Estate. Mrs. Betz inherited from her Husband, the founder of Betz laboratories. Her family now has those shares and were interested in selling, which prompted the whole issue coming to the forefront. The Middletons have accumulated extra shares over the years, primarily from purchasing the Taft family shares who were original partners. If Giles owns 4-5% and Monty owns 2% and Middleton owns 48%,the 2 other entities have to have 20% each.

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  34. Now let me see If I understand. Middleton say buys 20% from taft. Can he make decision without the other partners. remember, If I am not mistaken. it was Giles who bowa got mad at and traded along with rhino for de Jesus.

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    1. Thanks for the information.

      It would depend on how the Partnership Agreement is laid out. Supposedly nobody can own more than 50% so that is the first problem.

      Now that the 20% is a part of Tri-Play there has to be some sort of breakup or buyout clause in the Tri-Play agreement which specifies how things work and then you deal with the Partnership Agreement.

      I can see why this is taking some time.

      He could buy the interest in Tri-Play but that may or may not trigger something in the Partnership Agreement depending how both agreements are laid out.

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    2. Don’t forget that Bill Giles was the Managing Partner back then. Every Limited partnership has to have a General/Managing partner, who calls the shots, subject to certain, usually monetary restrictions. Giles could have traded anybody without consulting anyone. It takes a lot to move out a General partner, and I think Giles was eased out without a big fight knowing that his guy, Monty would take over. And we don’t know. Maybe he got an extra 1%. But Monty then became the general partner and only went to the partners in a big $ scenario, like the re-acquisition of Cliff Lee as a FA. Middleton can’t get a majority under the rules of the LP, but he can get the other partners to name him the General Partner. That is a plausible scenario and won’t require the acquisition of more shares. But, I think that is not what he wants. He wants to hire a real baseball President of the team and control the shares as the Majority owner under a different Corporate setup.

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      2. Wasn’t Giles made Chairman in ’97, after Exec VP and President positions in the early 90’s through ’97?

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  35. The way this partnership was set up is nuts. Middleton will never get control if giles and Montgomery are involved’/ its a disgrace.

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    1. rocco – as posted above Bill Giles is now 80. And unfortunately for Monty is health is a big concern. I do not think we are looking at decades of current ownership. I think there will be a changing of the guard rather soon.

      Like

    2. When you get a large group of limited partners you get complex agreements like this.

      It is not surprising that things are taking longer than expected.

      I would say that if Middleton does get control and become the General Partner you will likely see a lot of changes in the front office. 2015 may be a tumultuous year as the old guard is moved out and fresh new faces are brought into the mix.

      Like anything in life this represents change.

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  36. Even though Middleton is not the majority owner, its interesting what is happening with Montgomery. If Giles was still the Power, in the Ownership Group, this apparent move to get Montgomery out, would never happen. Of course when it does happen, it will be for Health Reasons, that’s OK, no need to fire him. The Phillies need a more modern, up to date, Executive structure.

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  37. Talking baseball, I hope Lester signs this weekend and I hope it’s with the Giants in terms of maximizing Hamels’ value. It would be awesome if the dodgers and Red Sox start bidding for Cole. Hopefully the meetings next week will be full of news.

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    1. I agree and I am anxious to get the off season rolling.

      Murray I expanded on your trade proposal from yesterday.

      Kemp and Byrd to BAL

      Hamels and Ruiz to LAD

      Urias, Baez, Harvey, Cisco, and Tim Berry to PHI

      I’m sure money would have to be exchanged as well.

      Like

      1. The Dodgers would make out like bandits in this trade. Baez is an interesting piece, but as a 26 year old still figuring it out, he loses a lot of value because he’ll be wasting some of his prime years. So it’s basically Urias for Hamels AND Ruiz.

        As for the Orioles, I can’t imagine they’d be willing to ship out 3 of their top ten prospects for Kemp and Byrd. Even if the Dodgers paid half of that remaining salary, that seems a steep price to pay for an defensive liability, injury prone 30 year old and a 37 year old.

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        1. You have to think too that the Dodgers would basically be giving us the prospects they would have gotten for Kemp and using them for Hamels/Ruiz.

          Yimi Garcia is a couple years younger and could be swapped with Baez. Both are at least ready for the big leagues and would be nice additions to Giles, Diekman, De Fratus. Jose De Leon and Darnell Sweeney are guys who would be nice pick ups as well from the Dodgers. Their prospect 5-10 have not really performed well this year besides Schebler, but I wanted to exclude him in this proposal for Romus’ sake.

          The Orioles would be giving up 3 out of their top ten, but would keep Guasman and Bundy. Kemp and Byrd added to Jones, Machado and Weiters (I believe they will be ready for the season), Pearce, and JJ Hardy would make a nice lineup. If they decide to trade Chris Davis Pearce could play 1B with Kemp in RF and Byrd in LF. Harvey and Cisco’s ETA is 2017 and Berry spent the year at AA with an ETA of 2015. The AL east is a tough division to win and the red sox, yankees, and blue jays all seem to be improving. If they want to keep competing they are going to need to make a move or two. So far this off season they have done nothing.

          Like

          1. I’m not disagreeing in principle with the trade partners, just that I think the results favor the Dodgers and that the price is highest for the Orioles with less pay-off than the Dodgers. But this is why 3-team trades are so rare; it’s difficult to find fair value for all three.

            You have to start this proposal, in my opinion, by asking, “What would the O’s give for Kemp?” In my opinion, maybe ONE of those guys (not Harvey) mentioned and a lottery ticket or two if the Dodgers threw in salary relief. Kemp has the upside, sure, but his defense, injury history, age, and apparent disposition about playing time are all on the wrong side of the track. If his contract was team-friendly, he’d still be attractive to most teams just because he has that offensive ability when healthy. But at 20m+ per year? Not worth the gamble. Compare him to Grady Sizemore who is similar in that he had a lot of upside, but his age and health worked against him (Kemp is better offensively, but Grady is better defensively, remember); if Kemp was in free agency, what would he get? Not the contract he’s on, that’s for sure. He might even have to settle for a 1 year deal to re-establish value, not unlike Sizemore.

            So say you have Sisco and two lottery tickets in hand. Would Byrd then net you Harvey+? Absolutely not. MAYBE you could get Berry. If we kicked in some extra money, possibly a little more. But I don’t see any way that Kemp+Byrd nets the return of all three. I think take Sisco out of the mix and add salary relief for the O’s and it becomes a little more realistic.

            Now that would mean the Dodgers are essentially trading Urias, Harvey, and a lottery ticket to us for Hamels and Ruiz. I am of the opinion that Hamels is worth Urias, a back-end top 20 (you say Baez, I would target Julian Leon), and a high-upside lottery ticket or two. So would Ruiz plus those lottery tickets turn into Harvey? I’m skeptical. I think Urias, Harvey, and a lottery ticket for the two might be the highest the Dodgers would go. And I don’t think salary relief would convince them to throw in that extra top-20.

            As for your comments regarding the Orioles, I’m sure they want to make moves. But they won’t overpay for the sake of making a move. They know what kind of value they can get for a prospect like Harvey, so they’ll hold onto him until they get at least close to that value. Even without Markakis and Cruz, their lineup is nothing to sneeze at. Especially if Davis bounces back and Wieters and Machado stay healthy. They might be more inclined to go after pitching. And don’t misunderstand, I know they need at least one OF. And I know that the FA OF aren’t all that appealing. But maybe they want Melky. Or even if they don’t, Kemp and Byrd aren’t the only two out there. Upton is seemingly up-for-grabs, and the Astros and Cubs have a glut of talent that may be appealing as well.

            Also, sorry about my handle changing. For some reason it changes depending on the browser I’m using.

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            1. I see what you are saying and this is all speculation so it is hard to gauge how much interest a team has in a guy and what they’d be willing to give up.

              I think if the Os give up Harvey it’d be for Upton, but maybe they would be willing to give him up for Kemp if the money was right. I think more realistically Cisco and possibly Berry could go for Kemp. Urias, Cisco, and Berry could be a package for Hamels with a lesser prospect included. I don’t know what Ruiz and Byrd will bring back. Might not be a bad idea to package them together or send trade one of them with Bastardo.

              If Ruiz is moved I wouldn’t mid seeing a veteran like Laird or Nieves share time with Rupp. Rupp’s bat is nothing special but he is good defensively. They could help hold down the fort until Cisco was ready (if acquired) or Grullon.

              If we did get Cisco, Urias, and Berry our prospect list would look pretty strong.
              Urias, Crawford, Nola, Franco, Cisco, Berry, Quinn…now that is certainly a nice looking list with another name to be added following the draft in june. Unfortunately, this list is probably not going to happen. I think if Hamels is traded there won’t be a third trade involve, a third team would just confuse Ruben.

              I wouldn’t mind seeing Heyward being brought in next year. Depending on the year he has he could be quite expensive, but with the money we have coming off the books and the comcast money it shouldn’t be an issue. We would probably have to over pay, but I think Heyward could lead some of our young guys like Werth did with the Nationals. We just need to bring in some more young talent for him to lead. A long term deal for him wouldn’t be too crazy either because he will only be 26.

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      2. The Dodgers will obviously have to kick in money to move Kemp but I think Kemp still has something left and a new beginning for him could be just what he needs. The theory that the Dodgers want Hamels but want to trade Kemp is undeniable. Interestingly, they’re trying to sign Lester now who won’t cost them prospects instead of making the deal so where Lester signs makes a huge difference. To me, getting Urias and Harvey, the rotation in 2017 would look very good. Cisco instantly would be your catcher in waiting although in your deal, not a bad one, someone would have to start now with Chooch leaving. I’m familiar with Tim Berry, I’ll have to research him but I like the looks of the deal. Do the Os want Kemp enough to make this happen?

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  38. I would be ok with the Cubs getting him as well, or the Yankees too. I agree that the Phils best bet is Dodgers vs. RSox. I think there are a few teams that may be in on Byrd. And, I am hoping for a flyer or 2 in the Rule V draft.We need something from this team.

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    1. Baseball GMs and execs all headed for sunny San Diego for some R&R and dealing. And our Rube will be handing out the following cigars to fellow GMs: Black and Mild, Cherry Blend, Gold & Mild and Prince Albert’s…..all made by the John Middleton Company.

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      1. Agreed, not yet but you never know, some guys figure it out later. His throwing is not great either apparently which I didn’t know. Oh well, doesn’t matter now.

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  40. Yankees sign Andrew Miller. I really miss the days when the Phils were the “Yankees of the NL.” There is no good reason that they should not have been a contender the past 3 years and going into next year. What was done to this team was mismanagement at a level rarely seen. Not hyperbole! Stadium, fan base coming out 3plusMillion strong, pending huge Cable deal, everything but competent management. To not take advantage of acquiring young talent through Overseas, over slot, whatever it took, is just mind boggling. A bad contract could be spent away. Papelbon’s contract means nothing if the team contended. He actually has done his job. A shame and no light anywhere in sight!

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    1. Let’s not forget that the Yankees playoff drought is the same as the Phillies’. And the moves they’ve made so far in the offseason still have them in last place in their division from my vantage point.

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      1. ruben or g$ 27 world titles to two. when we get to that amount you can post that nonsense. I have seen the giants win three in five years , by scouting and great pickups, and the right trades. Talk about them and st Louis. Even boston has two in recent years, and they screwed up by overspending and had the balls to get rid of bad contracts.

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        1. And yet anon was comparing them to the Yankees, who seem to be in a similar boat at the moment.

          You’re calling me Ruben? Seriously?

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    2. I Been saying the same things, but you stated them better than I have, and yet people will still go. amazing.

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  41. I was not referring to the Yankees, per se, but what was stated about the Phils relative to the ability to spend $. I am well aware that the Yankees have not done very well lately, so look at the way Boston did it. Same principle, use your wealth to make up for mistakes. Boston also had good drafting. They got Castillo. They have the farm pieces we are dreaming of getting for Hamels. They finished last then won the WS, then finished last again and re-tooled. They will not have a 5 or 6 year drought like the Phils, which may turn into 8 or 9 years. And, I do miss the days of spending $. At least the Yankees are trying. What are the Phils doing? Nothing. What piece did they add in the past 3 lousy years to help going forward? Outside of the draft, zilch. Finally, they got lucky with Crawford, and Nola looks like a nice P. Ogando may be the only trade piece to make the team.

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    1. Well, look at it this way, we won our 2008 WC as not super spenders. We then became super spenders and moved progressively far from post-season success. By a goodly margin, 2014 was our biggest spending year of all, and by reasonable measures our worst year in a decade. 2008 success came mostly on the backs of youngish, home-grown star talent, some less-than-stellar home growns, and some trade and FA guys filling in the holes. That’s how it has to happen again — another core of home-grown guys will have to lead the way. When our farm can produce something approximating Rollins/Utley/Howard/Ruiz/Burrell/Victorino/Madson/Myers/Happ/Kendrick then we can talk about putting the money to work to net us some big FA and salary dump trade guys. We still needed to luck out on finding a Werth to make 2008 work, however.

      Who were the big guys we went out and got with $ to make 2008 happen? Jamie Moyer, Blanton, Brad Lidge, Scott Eyre, Chad Durbin, and the immortal Pedro Feliz. The big money deals (Eaton, Jenkins, Garcia) didn’t pan out.

      The big wallet later gave us some very good guys like Lee, Halladay, and Oswalt, some okay to good guys like Papelbon, Pence, and Byrd and a lot of not all that good at all guys like the Youngs, Burnett, Adams. That spending got us 102 wins, but it never duplicated the WC achieved by that largely home-grown 2008 team.

      There may be a lesson in all of that.

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        1. Here are the Phillies opening day salaries, by season

          2014: $177,729,967
          •2013: $159,585,714
          •2012: $172,093,902
          •2011: $165,976,381
          •2010: $138,178,379
          •2009: $113,004,046
          •2008: $ 98,269,880
          •2007: $ 89,428,213
          •2006: $ 88,273,333
          •2005: $ 95,522,000
          •2004: $ 93,219,167
          •2003: $ 70,780,000
          •2002: $ 57,954,999
          •2001: $ 41,663,833

          They spent about as much in 2004 and 2005 as they did in 2008 and a good chunk of the 2008 money was wasted on Garcia. 2014 stands out for futility.

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  42. But, when the team is incompetently run, and there are few pieces down on the farm, having money to spend helps you re-build quicker, if you spend wisely. Certainly, it is not just the act of spending $. I agree that they have wasted an awful lot of it. But, if you had signed Abreu, as an example, and you are a wealthy team, you could release Howard and have a better team. I don’t have the same feeling about releasing him for Ruf. Just an example. You could have signed Castillo, Tomas, you can sign the Cuban kid coming out. You could have done a lot over the past # of years. Had they spent more in LA, Cuba, Japan, in the draft, just since 2008, they would have a better team. None of those expenditures necessarily show up in the yearly payroll, but are doable when you have the $ that the Phils do and spend it wisely. That was my reference to being like the Yankees, or RedSox or Dodgers.

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    1. Within the next 2-4 months the next big Cuban ticket is Yoan Moncada.
      It will be very interesting to see how this Phillies FO pursues this option.
      The June 15th declaration date affects certain clubs ability to sign the youngster due to international penalties.
      Big international in the past spenders like the Cubs, Yankees, Sox, Rangers and even the Braves are affected someway with that cutoff date.
      The Phillies need to step up with Moncada.
      Granted there will be more Moncadas ina few years since the Cuban baseball pipeline is very fertile, but now would be the time to get the fan base excited again.
      Building a dynamic new core, ala circa 2005 thru 2009, is what the people may want to see

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    2. It’s all sunk costs. The Phillies could release Howard today and not take any financial or baseball hit. He is projected to have negative WAR next season. I doubt he sells many (any?) tickets for them. It would have taken money (which they had but chose to spend on old guys) to sign Abreu, but even Ruf or other freely-available AAAA guys, or likely Franco come June, would be at least marginally better than Howard — last season as well as going forward.

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  43. I agree, and just feel that there are fewer ways now to add young talent besides finishing at the bottom and using the traditional June draft. Those opportunities that existed were wasted by the Phils, and so they have to do a better job moving forward. Moncada is the 1st, but so is the P coming from Japan. And, they have to get lucky somewhere in finding a Rule V guy and another coming off injury. Victorino and Werth were finds that required good fortune and that needs to be duplicated. They could finish dead last for 3 years, get the top pick each year and still not be any good without a large dose of luck.

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  44. According to Jayson Stark, the Red Sox are open to trading any position player except for Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rusney Castillo and Christian Vazquez. I don’t know about you guys, but I’d receptive to a deal for Hamels centered around Swihart. Add one of the three stud pitchers and Devers or Margot…

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    1. I don’t agree with the pie-in-the-sky folks who claim that Hamels is worth Boston’s or the Dodgers’ top 3 prospects — plus a throw-in. But — listing 4 position players as off-limits does seem a bit much. I’d certainly count Swihart among their top 3 prospects, so sort of ok here. Fine if they insist upon keeping Betts and Bogaerts off-limits, but I want Swihart, Castillo, and the Phillies choice of pitcher, in that case. That might well be Owens or it might be Rodriguez.

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  45. Barnes, Swihart and Devers would work, but that is if Lester goes elsewhere. Nothing happens if Lester goes back to Boston. I don’t hink Cubs go for Hamels, and Dodgers could choose to go Shields with no prospects being dealt rather than Hamels. Then, Hamels pitches for the Phils in 2015, and we go through this again at the July deadline.

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  46. Why don’t we just give Hamels away. I Hope your kidding Barnes, Swihart and Devars. for hamels is a joke. Why don’t we tell Boston to just take him and we will pay his salary too. I would take swihart, if its not betts no trade. value for value

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      2. That’s an awful return for Hamels. Red Sox prospects, particularly pitchers, are SO overrated and overhyped

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    2. You’re not going to get Betts. Boston won’t want to give up a young major leaguer with a bright future who can be plus in 2015. On the other hand, we don’t need to get someone that helps in 2015. The formula above isn’t an awful one, but Barnes isn’t the right choice of pitcher. SwIhart is an excellent catching prospect, which we need. He can be our 2016 starting catcher. Either Owens or Rodriguez look like they can be in our rotation as #3/4 starter in 2016. Devers is a very promising prospect. I’d prefer Castillo to Devers, but the deal above isn’t an awful deal. It’s within hailing distance of a good deal. Swihart, Castillo, Owens/Rodriguez or Swihart, Owens/Rodriguez, Devers, Margot would be good deals for Hamels.

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  47. My asset is a mvp pitcher, who is a ace , is lefthanded. you want to give me a a ball player in dsl. a 4 runs per game 25 yr old pitcher and a nice catching prospect ,not enough, and my player has a friendly contract;

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    1. rocco…believe it or not, I think I agree with you to a point.
      When it comes to starting LHPs in the majors Hamels ranks right up there with the likes of Kershaw, Lester, Bumgarner, Sale, Price and maybe even Gio Gonzalez.
      Hamels should get one premier prospect in the Seager/Betts/Bryant class. The other prospect or two would have to be a lower tier guy(s).
      You believe he should net at least two/ three outstanding/premier prospects and that is were we disagree.
      I think Ruben thinks like you when it comes to hamels value.

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    2. He was an Mvp pitcher 6 years ago. That’s a long time. Don’t get me wrong. I love cole Hamels, and I agree he’s one of the best in the game. But he’s 31 and he has a slightly below market contract. With Lester and scherzer available as free agents and several other good starters available via trade, you’re crazy if you think any team is going to make a better offer. And frankly, the offer you object to May not even be attainable.

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      1. Also Devers played stateside this season and tore the cover off the ball. (Unlike the Phillies equivalent who cost the same.)

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    3. Your pitcher (our pitcher) also missed time in 2014 with arm woes, which does realistically reduce his value a little. He is competing against Lester — no prospects, more $. If I were a Boston fan, I’d want to sign Lester and keep all of my prospects.

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    4. The last three years of Hamels career.
      Criteria (must start 80% of games) between 2012-2014, Hamels is the fifth most valuable pitcher in terms of WAR (15.9). The only National League pitcher who has been more valuable than Hamels in that three year span is Clayton Kershaw, who has a 21.9 WAR.

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  48. I think you get one top prospect like seager betts. lower guy and a young pitcher who has promise. I say betts, swihart, and lower level pitcher

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      1. Ranger’s Alfaro, Pad’s Hedges, Pantecost, McGuire and even the Yankees Sanchez are all top catchers in his class.

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  49. In discussions about a Hamels’ trade, very often we see no mention of cash. We even read rumors that the Phils will not add cash to a Hamels’ deal. If the Phils are to get a max return, though, a substantial amount of money should be included.

    How much money is uncertain, but I have been saying $30-35 million. That amount of cash alone should be enough to get a Top 25 prospect.

    Many have said that rich teams like the Red Sox and Dodgers don’t need cash to acquire Hamels. While that may be true, teams always want to get equal value back for assets they give up, and cash will be necessary to get back the two or three top prospects the Phillies should demand in a trade of Hamels.

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    1. Just to be clear, teams can’t simply buy top prospects with cash. Linked to a trade of Hamels, however, $30-35 million should get the Phillies one more top prospect than otherwise.

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  50. Very interesting to me that Revere made comments that he knows he might be playing elsewhere next season. There hasn’t been much talk about trading him but ….

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  51. So apparently Ruben is working quietly on some possible deals.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20141208_Amaro__Talks_active__kept_quiet.html

    As we have seen in the past, Ruben is prefers to be the dark horse that comes in and gets the man he wants. Hopefully the dialogue he is having with other teams is progressing and some deals are made. I am prepared to watch a bad team in 2015. However, I am not prepared to watch the same bad team.

    It seems Lester’s price is rising and he is probably going to get a 7th year. 4 (possibly 5) years of Hamels could look like a better alternative if Lester’s stock keeps rising. An extra 2-3 years of Lester could cost any where from 40-65mil and would take him through age 37-38. 5 years of Hamels puts him at age 36 at the end of his deal.

    Scherzer will be looking for more money and will cost a draft pick to sign. Shields will also cost a pick and he could be looking at close to 100 mil depending on the Scherzer and Lester contracts. Once these guys start signing Hamels contract may look more appealing, especially for teams that do not have to accept his option year to acquire him.

    I am surprised with the amount of money and years free agent bats are getting that Byrd’s name isn’t talked about more. If you include his option his contract is 2yr for 16mil.
    Tori Hunter got 10.5 mil to play at age 39. Byrd is 36 and their numbers aren’t too far off last season.

    Hunter .286/.319/.446 .765 OPS 111OPS+

    Byrd .264/.312/.445 .757OPS 110OPS+

    A team that could acquire him without having to guarantee his option would get a lot of value for 8mil and I’m sure Ruben could throw in a couple mil to close a deal.

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