With less than 3 hours remaining before the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster, the Phillies have added 3 pitchers.
Beat writers Todd Zolecki and Jim Salisbury announced over Twitter that the Phillies have added LHP Jesse Biddle and Adam Morgan and RHP Nefi Ogando to the 40-Man Roster. They are now protected from Rule 5 Draft in December.
This leaves 2 empty slots on the Phillies 40-man roster. Their site only shows 37 players. For some reason they haven’t added Jerome Williams, who signed a $2.5M extension on October 21st.
I can’t think of anyone, but is there someone we should have protected that has been overlooked
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Colton Murray, then Knigge are the guys most at risk.
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It looks like Tomas is not coming to the Phillies or at least before the Rule 5 draft. That will keep a spot open. Maybe a trade or two might open some more spots. I’m not sure who else needs to be protected. I still don’t think Murray gets taken in the rule 5 and if taken I’m pretty confident he will be offered back.
The Phils had a dreadful year in minors last year so there won’t be many guys from the organization who will be high on anyone’s list.
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I would not give up hope just yet on Tomas not signing with Philadelphia.
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I think romus he is going to braves. They will unload Upton and use that for him. That being said. I have a hard time paying a Cuban player that kind of money. 105 million for this guy is a lot. I Trully believe now that Montgomery is getting back. there will be no big Cuban or international signings. Smaller contracts maybe one or two 2 million guys, but that’s the Phillies way. on unproven talent.
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Don’t think so as would the Braves want an outfield of Tomas, BJ Upton and Gattis? Makes the Phillies outfield defense look like the Pirates outfield defense which is exceptional.
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braves want to move gattis. They are unloading Heyward’s potential deal and Upton and replacing it with Lester and Tomas. Not too bad.
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rocco….bet the mortgage on Ruben signing Tomas. The splash will be big.
oh, sorry, forgot…..you are not making any more bets concerning the Phillies 😉
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lmao
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If I don’t say it enough, thanks Jim for all the work you do for this site. That jack-butt on the Logan Moore post was way out of line. I know he’s an angry 12 year old, who was looking to get people’s blood boiling, but he was so out in leftfield (pardon the pun) it wasn’t worth responding in that post. So thanks again and know 99% of the people, who visit this site regularly, appreciate you, Gregg, Vic and anyone else who contribute large amounts of time to making this a great place to visit, loiter around, add a post or two and exchange Phillies Major and Minor baseball thoughts.
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Thank you. As a rule, I skip over anonymous comments so I wasn’t aware of his comment until I received an e-mail to approve another comment. That comment, which I approved, spurred my interest. I have to admit that I was also concerned about the site when Matt and Brad left. I don’t consider myself a writer. In fact I often correct people who call me a writer, I only claim to be a reporter. I try to keep my opinions out of my stuff. I have them and sometimes they leak into my reports, but I … oh, well, you get it. And thanks again to you and all the readers and commenters on PhuturePhillies.
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Jim, the original statement on October 21st said Jerome Williams and the Phillies “agreed” to a contract, they never actually said he signed it. On October 30th the transaction page says he “elected free agency.” Somebody changed their mind about the signing.
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FWIW- this quote is from a November 4th article on Philly.com-
“Jerome Williams re-signed for $2.5 million”
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20141104_Burnett_declines__12_75_million_option_with_Phillies.html
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Jim Salisbury has made similar comments as well. Meanwhile Williams has not shown up on the 40 man roster nor has the transaction page listed him as signing. He should have shown up on the 40 man roster by now if the contract was actually signed. As I said in a previous thread, I have now idea what this really means.
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MLB.com has him on the 40-man with the three new guys, of course without jersey numbers.
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=phi
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DJ, I know. I “verified” his signing through COTS. They can be as laboriously slow with contract updates as the Phillies site is with transaction updates. Since last night, the 40-man roster has been updated to include Williams.
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Who knows if Ogando will end up making it to the majors or not. But, in this case at least, you have to give credit to the Phillies organization for getting him from the Red Sox for John McDonald.
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For those thinking ahead to the Rule 5 draft, I came across an end of season summary from last year. In the 2013 major league portion, 9 players were selected (including Rosin from the Phillies).
5 of the 9 were returned, 3 hung on with the new club, and one is still in limbo following surgery
I had completely forgotten that the Phillies took Kevin Munson. The blurb they had on him was as follows:
RHP (taken fourth overall by the Phillies from the Diamondbacks): Returned to Arizona. Munson never made it onto the active roster, and was sent back in mid-March. Though he never saw MLB action this year, he did post a rather dominant campaign at Triple-A: 2.60 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/rule-5-draft
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I guess when you think about it when it comes to rule 5 selections…the one guy the Phillies could have used more patience with a few years ago and somehow buried on the roster, if at all possible at the time, would have been Ender Inciarte.
There would be no need for Happy Ben if that were the case.
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I mentioned this earlier. An overlooked bad decision.
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The trade for Revere and the 2012 Rule 5 draft both occured on the same day, December 6, 2012. If they had decided to keep Inciarte they still would have had to do something with Revere. But I understand what you are saying. Inciarte looked good that spring (But Revere did perform better). And I had to temper my enthusiasm for him because Revere was facing MLB pitchers and by the time Inciarte got into games he was mostly facing AAA pitchers; AND the weak looking bench would have looked a whole lot weaker with him on it.
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Jerome Williams was on the Phillies 40 man roster (posted on their website) this morning
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I think this is a clear indication that someone in the Phillies’ office reads Phuture Phillies. This is the second time that they have corrected/updated their transactions list after one of my posts. The first was the removal of the Burnett FA election only to be re-added a few hours later.
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Where do you think my thumbs down come from? 😉
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Sorry, off topic (what happened to the weekly general threads?):
On the “why can’t Howard help an AL team at DH?” topic (can’t find the original discussion). There were some good responses, but let me dig deeper.
On the plus side the 23 HRs. Not the RBIs – their value is a combination of the HRs, already counted, and opportunity, for which he deserves no credit. On the other side, everything else. .223 BA, only 18 doubles, poor base running. I don’t add defense since he will be a DH, but DHs as a group are well above average hitters because they don’t need to be skilled defensively.
Now, despite the deficiencies, because of the HRs, and because he does still BB a little, he is “only” about 7% worse than the average major league hitter. Now, that would be okay for a middle infielder; for a DH, not so much. Of course that doesn’t account for the poor base running.
That said, there WERE four AL teams who were worse at DH, unlikely as that seems. Would those teams perhaps want Howard, even for free at the league minimum? Probably not. Simply put, there are better options out there.
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Larry, I have seen a lot of people advocating Howard’s release (here and other places) if the Phillies can’t trade him. Do you see this organization doing that? Not do you think they should release him, but do you think they would.
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His family problems may buy him another year but honestly it does not change the inherent problems that are there.
When someones play is affected by off field issues you can tell but the problems that plague Howard have been there since he got called up.
Personally, I would let him go just to make room for young players. You cannot bring back this roster and expect anything better than last season.
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Ryan Howard’s family issues are sad and disturbing.
However, a great many people I have come across have had some type of family issue related to or involving hurt feelings or monetary matters.
Howard has made thru baseball alone, not counting endorsements like Subway, in excess of $125M and the matter with the family involves $2M from what I have read.
Unless it goes more beyond finances, then I do not feel it should have affected his on the field baseball production.
He is not the only professional player to have personal problems,
The professional players dealing with medical problems for their spouse, parent (s) or children, I am more sympathetic to their plight.
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I do not think they would.
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I can see him going to an AL team after all the other dominoes fall.
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LarryM, you have me convinced that he is not worth anything to a team. I probably would not make a very good GM, because I could not just release him. Probably for a combination of spite, I think someone picks him up for the league minimum, gettinz zero for $60M just troubles me, and the fact that I have only a lttle faith in Ruf. And, you have me convinced that what we would get for Hamels is not something I would want, so I keep him. So, I am now more convinced that there is no hope for the team. I had hope that Hamels bring a centerpiece for the future to go with JPC and Franco. There is not a single name being discussed that I would want, not even if you give me 3 of them. If there is no Betts, Russell, Urias or someone I feel is a definite player, I don’t want a package of maybes.
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I hear you on the “not release” point. Mixed feelings myself. There isn’t really anyone to step in … maybe Franco mid-season, but as I’ve said he is really a third baseman. At least we hope so. Ruf probably would be better, but … so what? He’s not that young himself, and a marginal regular at best. AND Howard might be okay in a platoon role (assuming last year’s reverse split was a sample size issue).
And, despite the picture I painted above … if he was released, and really cost just the major league minimum … yes I could see an AL team maybe taking a flier on him. And he wouldn’t have to rebound THAT much to help a team at DH, at least in a platoon role (see above). The point is, no one is going to pay any more than that – even the token price that the Phillies would demand.
Despite all that, on balance, yes I’d release him. But there are arguments both ways.
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With a couple spots remaining on the 40 man roster and some veterans likely to be on the move this off season it should be interesting to see the final roster. Almost anyone could be had from our active roster. Giles is one of the guys I would make untouchable, unless of course some team decides they want to significantly overpay for him.
Rumors have it that Amaro’s trade proposals to Boston are being shot down. This is not a huge surprise because they are waiting to see where Lester signs. A lot of trade proposals from writers and analysts have Hamels going to Boston for a package along the lines of Barnes, Ranaudo or Johnson, and Margot/Devers/Marrero/Coyle I also saw a proposal of Hamels to the Cubs for Almora, Edwards, and McKinney. I hate to say it, but I don’t think that these are unrealistic or unfair trade proposals. If we were a contending team and traded 2 of JPC, Nola, and Franco along with a third prospect for pitcher who we’d still have to pay 90-100 or so million for fans would not be very pleased. If Hamels had arbitration years remaining then by all means demand three top prospects. His contract isn’t bad, but provides little incentive to trade for when a free agent can be signed. I’d rather sign Lester for an extra year and pay some more money then trade a couple of top prospects for Hamels. The money a team would save by trading for Hamels opposed to signing Lester does not out weigh the prospects Ruben wants.
The best thing that could happen is Scherzer and Lester sign with teams other than the Cubs, Red Sox, and maybe even a team like the Blue Jays.
I think the cubs proposal is better than the Boston proposal. With all the scouting we have done and offers to Boston I think they are the team most likely to get Hamels. If we got Barnes and Johnson or Ranaudo to start with Boston that would help build a rotation for a contending Phillies team. Nola, Barnes, and Johnson/Ranaudo would be a nice 2,3,4. We could always sign an ace like Zimmerman or Price next year. Barnes, Ranaudo, and Johnson have all pitched in the upper levels of the minors with Barnes and Ranaudo reaching the majors. The other possible players in the deal break down like so:
Devers, 18, ROK 2014 , ETA 2017
Margot. 20, High A 2014, ETA 2017
Coyle, 22, AA 2014, ETA 2015
Marrero, 24, AAA, ETA 2016
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Sox elected not to protect OF, Henry Ramos…he may be one to look into as a Rule 5 selection in a few weeks.
In a two years he could be a ‘player’.
Like Inciarte a few years ago, in 2015, Ramos will have to be shown patience if he is on a 25-man MLB roster.
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He does look intriguing.
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All true.
I agree that there is a small chance of an overpay – not a Betts level overpay, but an overpay – AFTER the top FA pitchers sign.
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The reality is that the Red Sox need Lester AND Hamels if they want to win. We should hope the sox sign Lester because Hamels might then be seen as the difference needed to win. To all of you that say Hamels at his current salary is no bargain, I say fine go find equivalent pitching elsewhere. But you can’t because they’re not available. I think RAJ will hold out for a good deal and I think he’ll get it because Hamels can be the guy who wins a pennant for someone.
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I think Cherington may have a budget to work with.
Not sure both Lester and Hamels together will fit under their budget.
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Agree.
I do think that Amaro should hold out for a good deal, and he might just get it. But I suspect that Murray and I would not agree on what a “good” deal is.
People argue that a team will pay a high price for a player who can win them a pennant. There is truth to that for sure. But people exaggerate the price teams will pay, and exaggerate the effect a single player can have on the chance to win the WS. But more fundamentally, it is far from clear that trading a major league ready prospect like Betts would increase the chances of a championship for a team acquiring Hamels even in the short term.
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Valle signed with the Pirates, we resigned Koyie Hill. Good bye Sebastion
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And Travis Mattair still around….now with the Braves.
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The only Red Sox players that I would be interested in for Hamels are Betts, Swihart and maybe Bogaerts.
I think it’s perfectly reasonable for the Red Sox to consider these three untouchable.
Hence, the Red Sox are not a good trading partner.
The Cubs have spent the last three years building possibly the best farm system in baseball at the higher levels. The major league team, however, is probably two or three years away from being a force. Why should the Cubs substantially weaken the farm by trading for Hamels when they have the money to go after the likes of Scherzer and Lester this off-season and, possibly, Price and Greinke next off-season? They shouldn’t.
Hence, the Cubs are not a likely trading partner.
At the moment, I see the Pirates as a potentially good trading partner. They need pitching and catching, but they cannot afford the big-name FA pitchers. They have probably eight top prospects. Sending substantial cash to the Bucs would make Hamels affordable. Sending Chooch along with Hamels would raise the quality of the return package a notch.
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Because Hamels contract is cheaper than what teams will pay for said talent in free agency.
Hence, Hamels is attractive to all the teams you mentioned.
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I fail to see the urgency of trading Howard.
He’s blocking no one.
The Phils will continue to suck for at least the two more years remaining in Howard’s contract.
He has no trade value.
The Phils will save at most a nickel by trading Howard.
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He is blocking Ruf and Franco.
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Ryno tried platooning Ruf and Howard last season before it was shot down by Amaro.
Franco played about 20% of his games last year at first base so the Phillies see it as an option.
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“The Phillies see it as an option” isn’t a good argument. If anything, it’s an argument in my favor.
As for the platoon thing, look: we’re BOTH arguing that the team should do something out of character. The differences are (1) platooning him is much more likely – or much less unlikely – to actually happen than simply releasing him, and (2) arguably – a strong argument IMO – my option is better in the sense that at least they would derive SOME value from him.
As for Ruf. Please. The BEST case scenario for Ruf is two years of being an average regular. I’d say the chances of that are maybe 10%. Yawn.
Now, despite all of that, I STILL come down in favor of releasing him, as unlikely as that may be to actually happen. But to pretend that that is some easy, clearly better option is silly. And that description is, if anything, too kind.
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Howard may not be blocking a star 1B prospect, but him being on the roster does block other players from being on the team. An extra spot on the 25 man roster could mean we have room to pick up a player from the rule 5 draft and keep them. Or we could just use his spot for a low risk high reward type player. Moving Howard gives this team more options and shows that there is some attempt to break away from the aging core.
The money we would save on Howard would not be very significant, but we’d probably net a prospect in return. We traded Mcdonald for Ogando and that is looking like a really good move. A lottery ticket for Howard just may be a winner, you never know.
David I would say he is blocking Ruf, but not really Franco. Sure Franco could get ABs there, but Franco isn’t being blocked by anyone but himself. He came on strong at the end of the year at AAA before struggling offensively when he got called up. He is still young so there is no rush to get him to the majors. Once he puts it all together at AAA he will be our third baseman and Asche will be moved (position change or traded).
If Howard is moved Ruf can audition for a platoon/DH job. I would like to see Ruf play just about everyday at first and see what he can do. Best case scenario he plays well and could be traded to an American league team. Worst case scenario he doesn’t play all that well and helps us get another top 10 draft pick.
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Unlike David’s argument, this actually makes sense. Which at the end of the day is why I favor releasing him. But come on, it’s still fairly weak tea.
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Though you’re missing a large part of the point. OF COURSE the Phillies should trade him if they can get ANYTHING in return, even if they have to pay 95% of his salary. No one is disputing that. We’e arguing what they should do in the almost certain event that no team is stupid enough to trade for him. Should they just go ahead and release him? I say yes, but it is far from a no-brainer. There are arguments going the other way.
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Well, at least that’s what we arguing upthread. 🙂
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Sorry Larry, wrong again.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=franco001mai
Maikel Franco
Maikel Antonio Franco
Positions: Third Baseman and First Baseman
23 games at 1B and 107 at 3B last season in AAA.
Not sure why people keep ignoring these facts.
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David, I’m trying to be much nicer in these comment sections, but you either have the reading comprehension of a 5 year old or are deliberately provoking me.
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Franco needs a part of the season in AAA. He is the long term 3B, I think. I was impressed with his D when I saw him. Why not let Asche have some reps in LF? There is no one else there. Trade Byrd, which I think turns out to be the only move they make, move Brown to RF where he was slightly better than LF and let Asche play a little LF.
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Makes sense.
Ruben already said he was not moving Asche to LF, though Asche has heard that was a possibility before.
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Further, if Sandoval does not sign with the Red Sox, then Asche could be in play in a package deal with Hamels, since the Sox are also looking for a young lefty hitting 3rd baseman. You may be able to pry some good prospects from them.
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Asche is more likely to establish value at 3B than in LF, especially if Franco is in AAA and not taking ABs from him. Then there would be a chance to trade Asche to make way for Franco, assuming he earns a call up.
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They are trying to sign Tomas and trade some guys like Byrd and Brown. Depending on how everything shakes out you could see Asche move there if they think it is the right move but until guys get traded or released we have no idea how anything will shake out.
Keeping guys like Byrd and Howard just clog up development areas for other players.
You have to clear the roster before you figure out where guys will play.
We will know more regarding the roster as it gets closer to Spring Training.
The key regarding Franco will be where he plays when Spring Training starts. Where will the Phillies give him reps in Spring Training?
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Brown will not be traded
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If you look at the Iron Pigs roster they have two guys listed for third base and nobody at first.
If that stays static I think Franco opens the year at first base but there is a lot of time between now and the opening of Spring Training.
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Let me put it this way: if Franco is a first baseman, he wouldn’t be among the top 15 phillies’ prospects.
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I think that is a bit of a stretch Larry. If we want to follow David’s opinion that Franco is going to spend significant time at 1B I still think he is a top 15 Phillies prospect. His defense is good and his hit and power tool are graded above average. I know he loses a lot of value moving from third to first, but there is no way he falls behind 15 on the phillies prospect list.
Now for David, there is no way with Franco’s defense at third that he becomes an everyday 1B. Yeah he might get some time there to give him more ABs, but he won’t spend a significant amount of time at first, especially long term. No one is ignoring the fact that he played 23 games at 1B you are just looking too far into it. It is not uncommon for prospects to pick up an extra position for versatility reasons. Unless Franco becomes a bust he will be our long term third basemen over Asche. Please stop ruffling Larry’s feathers with this, I’m sure he would appreciate it.
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I am not trying to ruffle his feathers just pointing out some inaccuracies. If you look around almost everyone has Franco listed as 3B/1B. There is a reason for that.
I think a lot of what happens this offseason depends on a number of factors including Tomas, Howard, Hamels, and Byrd.
Depending on what they get back for Hamels and who else gets moved you may see the unlikely happen.
If you look at the prospect pipeline for the outfield we have Quinn, Dugan, and Altherr as the top three with Altherr most likely to be shifted over to a corner spot so that he does not block Quinn.
For next year we already have Revere, Byrd Sizemore, and Brown on the roster. Moving Asche to LF would make no sense because he needs to play everyday as a young player.
In the infield you have Asche at third with Crawford at SS. First and second base are still open with respect to the prospect pipeline so it is not out of the question that Franco gets moved to first given the pipeline and timelines.
Just offering a differing opinion based on what I see when I look over the farm system and roster.
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It’s maybe slightly a stretch, but not by much. First, a first baseman NEEDS to be an above average hitter to be even adequate as a regular. Secondly, There’s no particular reason to see him as a plus defender at first. His only plus defensive skill – his arm – will be negated at first.
More importantly, I think there’s significant doubt about whether the hit tool will be above average at the major league level. Maybe not even average. His plate discipline is problematic. Yes, his power is plus, but not plus plus. I think the upside is a guy who hits .260 with an OBP of .310 and 30 HR. Now, in today’s game, that’s not bad, but it doesn’t make him a star. Lucas Duda with half as many BB.
That’s essentially an average regular, maybe slightly above average. And that’s his upside, which he may not reach.
But a third baseman with those numbers would be a borderline star.
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Larry,
For the 151st time, when you come down off your high horse and bring a relevant argument to the table I will listen and I have the few times that you have.
For the rest, I sit content to look at the roster and farm system in an objective manner constructing a roster not just for next season but for the three to five year time horizon.
As for your points, I will leave you to find the obvious holes but I doubt you will see them.
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I don’t think it’s just for versatility reasons. I think the Phillies want to play both Asche and Franco in the big leagues in 2015. I think they know with 70+% certainty that Asche is traded before the start of the 2016 season. They know he loses a ton of value if they move him to LF. They want Asche to have a good 2015, so that he brings back good value in a trade. That means he plays at least half of 2015 at 3B in Philly. That means that, unless Franco stays in Allentown until the trade deadline — likely a bit longer than the Phillies want to keep him in AAA — then he needs to play 1B, until Asche is traded. If Asche starts the year well and another team needs a 3B, he is gone by 1 August, possibly even sooner, if Franco is ready and a good trade for Asche presents itself. In the meantime, Howard really should be gone, so 1B is a position for Franco or Ruf to get AB. Franco is the guy with the future in Philly. He is going to play 3B in 2016 and beyond. He’s young enough, and seems good enough, that he could hold down 3B in Philly for over a decade.
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I really am missing the point IF FRANCO IS FIRST BASEMEN, HE IS TOP 15 PHILLIES PROSPECT. how, what , why. who. where. do you come up with that. based on his bat along only maybe and its a big maybe Crawford is better. after that. there isn’t a bat in the minors like his. we know have a prospect at any postion, besides crawfrord that projects as a better player. where you come up with this to me is totally nuts. I don’t care what postion he plays in the infield besides short that he isn’t top three. let alone top 15
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He also would not be listed as a first baseman and they would not be playing him there.
I am not provoking you just pointing out the errors in your analysis. You always get angry when you make long posts and people point out the inaccuracies of your analysis.
Instead of focusing on what you want to happen take a closer look at what is actually happening.
No matter where Franco plays he will be one of the top prospects. Saying that him playing first instead of third is just incorrect. No matter what position Franco plays he will be a top prospect.
If the Phillies did not think there would be a chance of Franco playing first base then they would not have played him there once a week last season.
You cannot ignore 23 out of 130 infield starts because it does not fit your argument.
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His starts at 3B last season account for less then 18% of his infield playing time. That is not very significant.
If the plan was to make him a 1B he would have spent more time at first. You are making his 23 starts at 1B so much more than they really are for your argument.
You are ignoring 107 starts at 3B, how his defense at third adds value to him as a player (putting him at 1B takes away from that value), and that the organization has discussed moving Asche to LF.
It does not make sense to move a young top 3B prospect who plays good defense with a strong arm to 1B for no reason. If Asche’s hit/power tools graded higher and he had a stronger arm I’d be ok with moving Franco to first and leaving Asche at 3B. However, that is simply not the case. Franco is a better fielder than Asche and his bat should be much better. Any GM/Coach/Fan should know you put the better player in the position and move the lesser player to another position or team.
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While the 18% may seem small check around and look at this stat pages along with writeups. The term first base is popping up more and more. That is no accident.
If one person says first base it is an outlier but when it pops up all over the place you have to consider the possibility that they may groom him for first since there is an obvious hole in the pipeline for him.
If Howard goes who then is your first baseman to open the season, end the season, and to start 2016?
We all want Howard gone but who fills that hole? Ruf is not the long-term answer at first.
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David,
I get angry when people don’t bother to pay attention to what I’m actually saying. There may be errors in my argument, but if there are you haven’t pointed them out. You go on and on making the same banal and completely irrelevant point without actually engaging my response.
For maybe the 150th time on this forums:
(1) The mere fact that the Phillies see him possibly as a first baseman in the long term, even if true (fortunately doubtful) means nothing, and does not support your argument, UNLESS you believe that the Phillies’ judgment is infallible. But no organization is infallible, CERTAINLY not the Phillies.
(2) More specifically, the first base experiment can ONLY mean one of three things:
(a) Mostly likely, they want to have positional flexibility in case he needs to TEMPORARILY play first base when he first hits the majors because Asche is at third.
(b) They don’t believe he can handle third base. Unlikely, but possible. This would be bad – if Franco can’t play third he’s a marginal prospect and certainly not a future star.
(c) The Phillies think he can handle third, but intend to play him at first anyway. This would be worse, not only horrible for Franco’s career, but showing that the organizational judgment is even worse than we thought.
Now, that’s UNARGUABLY TRUE, except maybe, maybe the “most likely” part. But ultimately that doesn’t matter. since options b and c are so bad.
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Or D – the Phillies love both Asche and Franco and are trying to get them both into the lineup. There’s no way they want to trade Asche. They view him as another Utley. I predict he’ll hit much better next year and become untradable.
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“D” is just another way of stating “C,” and I don’t get how people can’t see this. I would put it down to a failure of communication on my part, except the basic concept has been explained better by others elsewhere, and it isn’t exactly rocket science. Putting Franco at first rather than third would be throwing wins out the window. If you – and the Phillies – are so high on Asche, then Franco needs to be traded. Moving him to first at this point (other than as a very temporary solution) is NOT ONLY throwing wins out the window (about 2 wins a year), it’s sabotaging Franco’s career. Again, this assumes that he can handle third base defensively, which it appears that he can.
It’s certainly possible that the Phillies share this horrendously poor judgment, but not encouraging, and nothing to be celebrated. Moving Franco to first permanently would be a failure of judgment at least as bad as the Howard contract.
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But in fairness Murray at least you’re making an argument, albeit one with which I disagree. Whereas David keep repeating his argument about the Phillies seeing first base for him as a possibility as if that means anything. It’s not a bad argument; it’s not even an argument.
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That would be great if he hits so well he becomes an untouchable. What’s more likely to happen though, is that he hits at some level that’s close to league average. Hopefully (and I think pretty likely) he’ll be above average. But if the Phillies really believe that he’s Chase Utley: The Sequel, I think they’ll find out that’s not the case.
They may think that his demeanor is reminiscent of Utley, but not his talent. Utley put up a 134 wRC+ and a 7 WAR season in his first full year. Granted, he was older than Asche but also less experienced at the ML level.
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If the Phillies want to keep Asche and Franco long term. Asche has to be the one to move off of third base. Franco is the better fielder. The only argument for keeping Asche at thirdbase if/when Franco shows that he can handle Major League pitching is for Asche to build trade value. I do support playing Franco at first base until he proves he can handle Major League pitching. It would not be good to trade Asche only to find out Franco can’t handle Major League pitcher. However, if you are keeping both long term you should always play the better fielder at thirdbase.
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His position is 3B, and I don’t think it makes sense to even consider moving him, unless he shows he can no longer play there. His value certainly is significantly less at 1B. I agree that the only reason to work him there is to get him some extra flexibility when his bat improves to the point where it demands he play everyday with the Phils. Then, if Asche is doing well, it is a pleasant problem. The best case scenario is that Franco is ready for the Majors and Asche improves to be a positive every day player. Then he is worth something in a trade or he can go to LF. The potential future star 3B is Franco.
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Let me pose this question. If Asche is going to get traded what are you going to get for him? People seem predisposed to trading a second year player under team control. What is your return?
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Right now I think if you trade Asche he would need to packaged with Hamels or Byrd to sweeten the return. IMO Asche has improved on defense enough to stay at third base. However, his bat will really determine if he is an everyday player long term. I think he could consistently hit between 10-20 home runs a year and possibly be in the 20-25 range a time or two in his career if he progresses. He needs to improve his plate discipline and draw some more walks.
If Asche has a nice first half offensively I think the return would be considerable since he is young and under team control. I don’t know what you would get for him, but anytime you trade a guy who is under team control, young, and can play everyday you better get something of value in return.
Asche could also have a slow start and not have much trade value in July. His bat will determine what he is worth.
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If he has a good season, he’ll have great value. Second year guys under team control are cheap for multiple seasons, which really drives up the value. A 3B has a lot of value. Asche is LF or Franco at 1B, not so much. I guess what we are most likely to want for Asche is a young OF or 1B.
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Agree David. Trading Asche or Franco would be absurd at this point. Plenty of time to work out positional conflicts.
On another note, I see the BoSox are now in on both Hanley and Panda. They’d have to be thinking to make some youngsters available if they do indeed sign both. Simply not enough PT available for all those bats. Perhaps the Hamels rumor mill will heat up again
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Reports this morning, Sandoval has agreed and Ramirez is next in line to sign with the Sox.
Perhaps a Hamels trade is in the works again, since with Sandoval and ramirez on the left side of the infield, Bogaerts can be added into the package to sweeten the pot.
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If the Redsox are willing to play Ramirez at short and trade Bogaerts that tells me the Redsox don’t believe Bogaetrts can play shortstop. It also would suggest to me they are not sure of his ability to adjust to Major League pitching with his high leg kick and questions about his ability to lay-off breaking pitches leading to a high K-rate. I’m not sure I’d want him as a centerpiece of a Hamel’s trade if the Redsox are ready to give up on him.
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I’m highly puzzled Bogaerts talent/ability can’t simply evaporate and by all margins he would seem to UZR better than Ramirez. It is all very strange and they still don’t have a true RF on the roster.
I know Shane may argue that he is the RF but his health would be a major concern right?
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I talked about bogaerts. The red sox from what I read, aren’t as high on his hitting. They would move him in a deal. but how many other scouts see what the red sox see.???
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I’d take Bogaerts Barnes and Brian Johnson for Cole and if they want money back in the deal let’s talk about a 4th player…
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I can’t imagine they would sign Hanley to play shortstop over Bogaerts at this point. But if they plan to move him to the outfield, it could shake loose one of their top young outfielders. Gotta hope that they sign these 2 guys and miss out on Lester. That would put us in as good a position as possible for a Hamels trade.
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Not saying either one should be traded now. But if they both do well in 2015, one of them should and will go before the start of the 2016 season.
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The point isn’t to decide what he is worth today but in July after he has, what we hope is a real good start. Then, as a young 3B he has value. if Franco starts strong and shows he is ready and you have 2 good young players at is best case scenario. Let’s hope they both play well and we have a pleasant dilemma. Either play Asche in LF or trade him for a similar OF or young SP
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People have just totally fallen in love with Asche, but there really are no signs that he has the sort of special bat that he is going to be a plus LF. Nor is there reason to assume that he can be a plus defensive LF. Moving to LF at his age and doing well are hardly a given. His value is as a 3B. Even there, his ceiling is not star, His ceiling is as a guy who can be about average both offensively and defensively at 3B. His value is strongly driven by his low salary and large number of years of team control. If he reaches his potential this season, or at least comes close to it, his value will be at its peak. If the team believes Franco to be the real deal at 3B, then this is the year to trade Asche. Don’t trade him for an old vet, don’t trade him for a middle reliever, but do trade him for a young OF, 1B, or SP of comparable talent for their position. It is not as though the Phillies don’t have two tons of holes to fill going forward.
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I see the Rangers want the Braves Justin Upton but will not part with power hitter Joey Gallo.
Joey Gallo has a Krate of 34%. Even power guys like Adam Dunn and Dave Kingman had better Krates in the minors of less then 25%.
The Rangers should reconsider and think about that deal.
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Watch the Padres and Andrew Cashner. They went hard after Pablo and it appears they lost out on him. He could mess up the Hamels sweepstakes!
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Cashner is a very good pitcher but has spent a lot of time on the DL. Hamels is much more dependable and is used to pitching in small home park.
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Bogaerts to Philly would certainly be an interesting move. With him, Franco, Asche, and JPC coming the left side of the infield would be crowded. I really hope they wouldn’t move Franco to first and put Bogaerts at third. I think leaving Franco at third is the best option. If they did acquire Bogaerts I wonder if he or JPC could move to second. Not sure how that would all work out.
I think if your grab Bogaerts, Barnes, and maybe a guy like Coyle/Margot/Ball for Hamels you have to make the deal. Two guys who could play in the big leagues next season and another solid prospect. We’d also shed a lot of Hamels contract (not that shedding money is a huge deal but gives us more long term options).
I think once it is determined where Boston plans to play Ramirez better trade speculation can occur.
One idea I haven’t really been hearing is Boston using Cespedes to get Hamels. I know we have no need for Cespedes because he is older, but he could be a part of a three team trade. If boston sends Cespedes to a team in need of a bat they could send an mlb ready or near ready prospect to or two to Philly to lighten the load of prospects that boston would need to send.
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If Boston does end up with Sandoval and Hanley, I could see them ‘overpaying’ for Hamels. Would they really spend $200 million on those 2 players and still go into the season without some top of the line pitching?
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Agree…….Lester, with Sandoval and Ramirez would cost them an approx. total of $68M per year for those three players.
Hamels comes a few dollars cheaper yearly.
Perhaps a package of Bogaerts, Owens and Bradley may persuade Ruben, since Betts , Swihart and Vasquez are probably untouchable..
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Can Bogaerts play 2B at all? That would us very promising MLB players in the middle infield. Mookie Betts is still who I really want from them.
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Ramirez was signed to play LF, not SS. I think they re-sign Lester next, leaving Hamels for the Cubs/Dodgers to bid for. But, I don’t think he gets moved. As we have discussed many times already, what we will be offered for him is not worth trading him for. Byrd may be it as a trade for Phils, so this June’s pick better be a lucky guess and yield another player we can hope around. No Tomas, no Hamels trade for a centerpiece, I think sets the rebuild back another year or so. Not being sarcastic, but 2016 is a real reach to get out of the basement, and 2018 seems more realistic. And, that still requires a lot of good moves. Franco, JPC, Nola and Biddle, who I am adding just to be positive, does not make a good team.
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Would it be too much to ask to get a weekly general discussion posted each week?
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It seems like Hamels going to Boston is a good possibility, but I have another trade proposal to offer.
SEA gets: Marlon Byrd and 6mil (SEA would have to guarantee Byrd’s option. Money from us makes it a 2 year contract for 10mil. That’s pretty good for Byrd’s production.
PHI gets: Dustin Ackley and Tyler Marlette (#10 prospect, C)
Not sure if they would make this trade since Ackley won’t hit free agency until 2018, but it would give them a productive corner OF/DH. Marlette is pretty expendable with Zunino already on their big club.
Ackley would be an upgrade in LF and Marlette would give us a nice catching prospects since our system has been struggling to produce one.
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