Report Card, Outfield, Lakewood, Williamsport and GCL

A look at outfielders at the lower levels of the organization.  A reminder that grades are expectations coming into 2014 vs. themselves not against others. A= Far exceeded expectations; B= Exceeded expectations; C= At expectation; D= Below Expectations; F= Horrible.

Lakewood

Aaron Brown, 22, Phils 3rd round pick in 2014; .268/.310/.383 in 235 AB’s between Williamsport and Lakewood; 4HR 21RBI; 8/13 SB; 3%bb/25%k rates; For Lakewood: .309/.339/.373 in 55AB’s; 1HR 5RBI; .309 over last month; Brown was a very exciting player at times and has shown alot of promise.  Plate discipline will be a key.  Grade: B-; 2015: Clearwater

Dylan Cozens, 20, Phils 2nd round pick in 2012; .248/.303/.415 in 509 AB’s; 16HR 62RBI; 23/30 SB; 7%BB/27%K rates; .204 with RISP; .255 vs. LHP; .245 vs. RHP; .213 over last 30 days; 123 games in the OF with 9 errors (.962); 8 OF assists;  A very exciting year for Cozens who showed speed, power, and run production.  If he can lower the “K” rate by a few percentage points, Cozens future looks extremely promising.  Grade: B; 2015: Clearwater

Larry Greene, Jr. 21, Phils 1st round pick in 2011; .183/.265/.279 in 197 AB’s; 2HR 18RBI; 4/6SB; 10%bb/27%k rates; .132 vs. LHP; .201 vs. RHP; .167 over last month; .164 with RISP; 50 games in the OF with 4 errors (.959); 3 OF assists; Simply an unmitigated disaster.  .132 against lefties…really?  Grade: F; 2015: Lakewood although he may go the way of Anthony Hewitt very quickly if he doesn’t produce.

Samuel Hiciano, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2011; .255/.306/.409 in 330 AB’s; 9HR 36RBI; 8/17SB; 7%bb/24%k rates; .237 vs. LHP; .262 vs. RHP; .198 with RISP; 71 games in the OF with 3 errors (.980); 4 OF assists; Hiciano spent the last 3 weeks of the year on the DL after a good year in ’14 during which he showed a good deal of promise.  Grade: B-; 2015: Back in Lakewood to start

Carlos Tocci, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2011;.242/.297/.324 in 487 AB’s; 2HR 30RBI; 10/21 SB; 5%bb/19%k rates; .267 vs. LHP; .232 vs. RHP; .210 over last month; .208 with RISP; 124 games in the OF with 6 errors (.980); 8 OF assists; Grade: C+; 2015: Clearwater.  I am admittedly not nearly as high on Tocci as some but must admit he did improve over his 2013 year.   That said, I have difficulty digesting the 2HR and 56RBI in 950 plate appearances in Lakewood, the fact that he is not fleet of foot, added on top of a very slow finish to the 2014 campaign.  Still, at 19, times where real promise is shown.

Williamsport

Cord Sandberg, 19, Phils 3rd round pick in 2013; .235/.267/.345 in 264 AB’s; 6HR 24RBI; 8/11SB; 4%bb/20%k rates; .250 vs. LHP; .231 vs. RHP; .242 over last month; .185 with RISP; 65 games in the OF with 2 errors (.986); 5 OF assists.  Grade: C; 2015: Lakewood.  Sandberg played well enough to move up, but barely.  He started hot and slowed considerably showing a lack of plate discipline fairly consistently.  The raw talent remains there.

Jiandido Tromp, 20, Signed as a free agent in 2011; .256/.316/.456 in 344 AB’s between Lakewood and WIlliamsport; 15HR 42RBI; 19/24SB; 7%bb/28%k rates; .263 over last month; 88 games in the OF with 4 errors (.981); 9 OF assists. Grade: B+; 2015: Lakewood.  Tromp has a very good 2014 and I was disappointed when he was moved to WIlliamsport and more disappointed he didnt move back up with the level of success he had.  He hit for power, showed speed and performed well in the field.  K rate needs work. Significant break out candidate for 2015.

Chase Harris, 23, Phils 14th round pick in 2014; .235/.301/.284 in 102 AB’s between GCL and WIlliamsport; 0HR 8RBI; 7/11SB; 6%bb/20%k rates; .175 over last month; 27 games in the OF with 2 errors (.971); 5 OF assists; Grade: C; 2015: 5th outfielder in Lakewood

Jose Pujols, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2012; .226/.273/.377 in 212 AB’s between GCL and Williamsport; 5HR 33RBI; 1/3SB; 5%bb/33%k rates; .213 over last month; 50 games in the OF with 3 errors (.973); 4 OF assists.  Grade: C; 2015: Lakewood.  I think the Phils will be aggressive with Pujols simply based on the raw talent that is there and they will want to get him plenty of AB’s in April and May before the Williamsport season starts.  Unless he is crushing SAL pitching, I expect a drop back to Williamsport when their season opens. He is a run producer who needs a full season of AB’s next year to continue hiss progression.

Matt Shortall, 23, Phils 10th round pick in 2014; .264/.292/.440 in 91 AB’s; 3HR 11RBI; 2/3 SB; 2%bb/20% k rates; .267 vs. LHP; .263 vs. RHP; .214 with RISP; 13 games in the OF without an error; 1 OF assist; Grade: C+; 2015: Backup in Clearwater; Shortall battled a series of injuries with WIlliamsport but when he was in the lineup played like he belonged.

GCL

Venn Biter, 19, Phils 30th round pick in 2013; .210/.275/.312 in 157 AB’s; 0HR 14RBI; 13SB; .205 vs. LHP; .212 vs. RHP; 6%bb/27%k rates; .209 with RISP; .206 in August; 44 games in the OF with 2 errors (.974); 5 OF assists; Grade: C; 2015: Biter will have to have a good Spring to secure a spot in Williamsport.  He has speed and has a very good arm, but has not been able to hit rookie league pitching consistently.

Carlos Duran, 19, Signed as a free agent in 2012; .299/.390/.393 in 107 AB’s; 0HR 11 RBI: 9SB; 13%bb/19%k rates; .286 vs. LHP; .304 vs. RHP; .216 with RISP; .333 in August. 33 games in the OF with 2 errors (.964); 3 OF assists;   Grade: B+; 2015: Certainly Williamsport, could start in Lakewood and drop back.  A very good first season in the STates for Duran, who got on base regularly with his bat and drew alot of walks.

Gustavo Martinez, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2011; .280/.322/.327 in 102 AB’s; 0HR 8RBI; 2SB; 6%bb/11%k rates; .217 vs. LHP; .298 vs. RHP; .350 with RISP; Grade: C; 2015: I dont have a clue why Martinez was placed with the GCL Phils after a successful 2013 with WIlliamsport…numbers game maybe.  That makes me real unsure how the Phils feel about Martinez going forward.

Jake Sweaney, 19, Phils 4th round pick in 2013; .255/.323/.309 in 55 AB’s; 0HR 6RBI; 4/7SB; 10%bb/25%k rates; 24 games in the OF without an error; 1 OF assist; Grade: C+; 2015: Williampsort; Sweaney made the transition from C to the OF this year and it appears to have gone smoothly, albeit with limited playing time.  I expect to see him get alot of action in the FIL and start ’15 in Williamsport.

54 thoughts on “Report Card, Outfield, Lakewood, Williamsport and GCL

  1. LGJ is the Phillies version of Bluto from Animal House.
    “Mr. Blutarski…. zero point zero.”
    That wasn’t an F by Larry Greene, that was a zero.

    1. Artie Lange is cracking up somewhere and ETM is pissed at Fred . . . (Not sure if anyone will understand this

  2. By Gregg’s system I would give LGJr a C or even a C+. He performed exactly as I anticipated he would and even finished the season emoyed which was a surprise.

  3. With that number of AB, I’d give Sweaney an incomplete. Really a big disappointment, as he slides way down the position value scale, misses most of the season, and doesn’t hit well by the standards of his new position.

  4. I genrally agree with your assesment, but I would have given Larry Greene Jr an F- instead of an F

  5. Duran is a very intriguing guy to me. He was hitting over 300 for most of the season before faltering to 299 at the end. A leadoff hitter type with speed who takes walks is not bad. Can he play CF well? A guy coming over to the states and hitting well right away is someone to remember.
    Not to be negative but there’s not a single 300 hitter on the list and these are the low minors where lots of guys hit well. Its really not very encouraging. I want to get excited about what Cozens could become and maybe Tocci will put on 20 pounds of muscle and maybe Brown will be all that he can be and maybe Pujols will improve and maybe Sandberg will morph into a baseball player. Or, maybe there’s not a single future major league starting OF on this list.

  6. lot of Cs in there. Personally, I thought Williamsport would be much better. Anything can happen with these young players. Lets just hope the Phillies have a cohesive plan instead of adopted different strategies out of desperation.

  7. I think we all need to just relax and give LGJ some time to adjust. Time to adjust to a new career that is. This kid has been flat out awful. I know all draft picks are risky, especially high school kids, but he was a first round pick and hasn’t shown us a glimpse of hope. At least a guy like Collier gets hot towards the end of the season to make you a tad bit weary about flat out letting him go. Whoever scouted this kid should be fired if he hasn’t been already. I just went back and looked at the draft from 2011. LGJ was drafted in front of Quinn, Adam Morgan, Cody Asche, and Ken Giles….looking back now what a joke that turned into. Asche and Giles are both in the big leagues, with Giles of course dominating. Morgan would probably be in the big leagues had it not been for his injury. Quinn was hurt and is probably going to be at reading next year. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Josh Bell are two guys taken after Greene and I bet everyone would gladly take either of them over Greene. Evaluating talent is not easy, but you’re telling me people who evaluate players professionally couldn’t find a better selection….that’s simply pathetic.

    On a positive note, there are definitely some guys who could turn heads next season IMO. Our young OF prospects may not be the best around, but there certainly is some good talent to follow moving forward.

      1. Hahaha maybe so Philsphan, but when you’re drafted in the first round as a power hitter and Tocci the beanpole (soon to be hulk) hits as many home runs as you that’s pretty sad. Granted Tocci had more ABs, but Greene did nothing to deserve more.

            1. If Howard or Brown would be at .316, they’d probably get a key to the city. But alas, it’s only revere so people will still find his faults.

            2. I love Revere but this (below) is such a dopey comment. If Howard or Brown hit .316, their power and plate discipline would make them immensely more valuable than Revere. Because he hits for no power and can’t draw walks and is currently a below-average fielder, Ben Revere has to hit .300 to justify a place in the line-up.

              That said, if Revere can make himself into an above average fielder and just drive the ball a little more, he’ll be very valuable to the Phillies.

              “If Howard or Brown would be at .316, they’d probably get a key to the city. But alas, it’s only revere so people will still find his faults.”

    1. Bell sent a letter out that he wanted to attend college, then pirates took him and gave him 3 million plus phillies don’t do that right or wrong in the amateur field. I have no excuse for Jackie Bradley jr

  8. In reviewing performance in a given year (in this case, 2014) shouldn’t the age listed be the age the prospect was for the year, not the age as of the current date? By way of example, Tocci didn’t show any “real promise” this year “at 19”; rather, he showed it at 18.

    1. I think B is the correct grade. Take a look at the seasons in A ball that Giancarlo Stanton had and tell me that Cozens deserves an A. Cozens is an interesting prospect and could break out, but he’s not quite there yet and there are still areas of concern.

    2. His avg wasn’t anything remarkable nor was his OBP or a K rate. His BA with RISP was terrible as well. He needs to do better with those aspects to grade higher then a B. He had a season that shows promise, nothing wrong with that or nothing wrong w a B.

    3. I would have given Cozens a C myself. People fall in love with the idea of what he could be and with his counting stats. His K% went up, his BB% went down and his ISO dropped as well. From a performance standpoint it was not a great year for Cozens, but the potential is still there.

      1. That’s my take as well, but I think that part of the reason why there’s more enthusiasm about him now than a year ago is that it seems more likely that he can stick at a corner OF spot than it appeared last season. His likely hitting ceiling looks much better in RF than at first base.

        I would add that the Oliver projection system likes him quite a lot – projecting him as a well above average major league regular by 2017. Interestingly, it appears to project him as a first baseman (or a well below average left fielder). If one takes the Oliver hitting projection and assumes a near average defensive right fielder, he protects as a border line star as early as 2017.

        1. Isn’t that projection based on his pre-2014 numbers? His wRC+ was 134 in 2012 and 146 in 2013, so they probably mechanically projected that forward through the levels. Also his peripherals were much better last year (10/23/200 BB/K/ISO).

          This year he turned in a 97 wRC+, his OPS dropped 90 points, and his peripherals all fell off (7/26/167). The defensive reports may be encouraging, but it’s hard to call this year even a C.

          Lots of people around here got excited when he “turned it around” in July (.370 BABIP), but his .682 August OPS (.298 BABIP) was more in line with his overall performance.

  9. Revere is about to get more expensive and by 2016 he’ll be unlikely to produce enough to justify his arbitration year salaries. I love what he’s doing, but he’s built up a decent amount of trade value with his performance the past few months. A batting title would be icing on the cake. Lastly, the Phillies should be discreetly trying to move him this winter. I doubt his trade value will ever be higher, at least as commensurate with his potential 2016 salary.

    I’d then be inclined to pursue Sizemore on a one year deal. Not sure what it would take – maybe 1yr-$2.5mil? If you could give him regular playing time he might be of great trade value if he could stay on the field for the first 4 months. Provided of course that RAJ doesn’t ink him for 1yr-$8mil. Waay too much you say? Well let me tell you about my boy RAJ

      1. Yeah – thanks for the link. Not sure I agree with the argument though. Revere will be fairly cheap again next year, but not necessarily in 2016. I’m not sure what the author is contending by stating that a contending team would not value Revere too highly. I don’t necessarily disagree, but the prospective buyer pool is hardly restricted to contending teams.

        1. We’ll cross 2016 when we get to it. Right now, he’s cheap enough to man CF and nobody is going to give anything big for Revere.

    1. What makes you think RAJ would give Sizemore a 1yr/$8mil contract? RAJ would give him 2yr/$16mil with a player option that vests with 175 games played in the two years. Or do you think Sizemore is too young to get that kind of contract from RAJ.

      1. Seems Ryne Sandberg would like to have Sizemore back for next season.
        He talks highly about him and also likes how he plays the game.

      2. First of all, Sizemore wants to start. So if the Phillies want to sign him as the 4th OF, I think he’ll go somewhere else.

  10. I know this is the wrong place for this but since this turned into a Revere discussion, here it goes. Revere and Tocci should go to Clearwater and pull/push box cars around. Hit the weights, run their butts off and any other thing to put a little muscle on. The two can be workout buddies. I know Revere is a slap hitter but with a little muscle, 4 HRs would be a better number than 2. Galvis went through a strengthening program and he shows some pop from time to time. I remember the skinny kid in Reading who had trouble hitting the ball onto the outfield grass.

    1. Saw a stat from yesterday’s game, that if Revere hits .300 and swipes 50 bases….he becomes only the second player in Phillies history to do that.
      Can you imagine!

      1. Actually, he’d be the third. The article (Crashburn Alley I assume) you saw not only forgot Ed Delahanty initially, but also forgot that Billy Hamilton did it six times.

        1. Correction: Ed Andrews also did it once. Still it’s significant that no Phillie has done it in over 115 years.

          1. It’s post 1901 I posted a comment about the .300 50sb in a thread a few days ago (either the 4th or 5th)

    2. I don’t know if you’ve been watching the Phillies games but Revere is a little ball of muscle. He’s not going to get appreciably stronger no matter what he does. Any improvements he makes in driving the ball will be as a result of changes in technique, load, weight shift, swing path and approach. But he needs to be careful; he doesn’t want to sacrifice the hit tool that got him this far. What he needs to do, and actually has improved on this year, is driving the ball enough to keep outfielders honest, so they don’t play him like kids crowding the infield in a little league game – if the fielders are just 4 or 5 steps farther back, Revere will get another 10 to 12 hits a year and the increased power may mean a walk percentage of around 4 or 5 rather than 2 or 3. When you play the game like Revere, all of these little improvements are extremely important. In addition to driving the ball more consistently, Revere absolutely must improve his fielding. He works on his game (his throwing has definitely improved; good for him!) so this could actually happen. And you have to like Revere’s attitude and energy.

      1. This is spot on.

        The decline in his BB rate is a little mysterious. His plate discipline data is about what it’s always been – league average. His low career BB rate is explained entirely by the lack of power (pitchers don’t need to pitch him carefully) and high contact rate (fewer long counts). But this year’s decline has no clear cause. His contact rate is up a bit, but not enough to explain the decline in BB rate.

        1. My guess is the walk rate goes back up to mediocre next year. A .350/370/720 slash line from Revere is actually pretty valuable. Just wish his defense was a little better and since the problem is often routes – he should be able to improve some.

      2. Perhaps Revere’s defensive game would be more suited for LF, ala Juan Pierre.
        Then again, you would need a CF with plus defense and more of an offensive power tool.

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