Two Prospect Lists to Mull Over

Top Prospect Lists

About a week ago, Mike Drago, of the Reading Eagle, posted a prospect list that he compiled from the input of media members who cover the Phillies and their minor league affiliates.  I was honored to be included in Mike’s request of about 2 dozen writers.  We were asked to –

  • Rank the top players in the Phillies organization from No. 1 to No. 20, based on their present value to the organization and their major league ceiling/potential.
  • Consider the player’s age and performance relative to each level he has played.
  • Not include players who are no longer with the organization, nor players who appear to be in the majors for the long haul or have had significant big league time (example: Ken Giles, Mario Hollands, David Buchanan, Darin Ruf, Freddy Galvis or Cesar Hernandez).
  • Consider players who appear to be up for a brief time and/or who are likely to begin next season in the minor leagues (Cameon Rupp, Ethan Martin.).

The following is the 2014 Phillies prospect list as published in the Reading Eagle.  Players are listed with their position and current club.

  1. J.P. Crawford, SS, Clearwater
  2. Aaron Nola, RHP, Reading
  3. Maikel Franco, 3B, Lehigh Valley
  4. Roman Quinn, OF, Clearwater
  5. Jesse Biddle, LHP, Reading
  6. Aaron Altherr, OF, Reading
  7. Miguel A. Gonzalez, RHP, Lehigh
  8. Matt Imhof, LHP, Lakewood
  9. Carlos Tocci, OF, Lakewood
  10. Kelly Dugan, OF, Reading
  11. Dylan Cozens, OF, Lakewood
  12. Deivi Grullon, Clearwater
  13. Cameron Perkins, Lehigh Valley
  14. Aaron Brown, OF, Lakewood
  15. Severino Gonzalez, RHP, Reading

Others receiving votes:

  • Andrew Knapp, C, Clearwater;
  • Zach Green, 1B, Lakewood;
  • Cord Sandberg, OF, Williamsport;
  • Ethan Martin, LHP, Lehigh Valley;
  • Brandon Leibrandt, LHP, Williamsport;
  • Yoel Mecias, LHP, Lakewood;
  • Cameron Rupp, C, Lehigh Valley;
  • Tommy Joseph, C, Gulf Coast League;
  • Adam Morgan, LHP, Lehigh Valley;
  • Willians Astudillo, 1B, Lakewood;
  • Shane Watson, RHP, Lakewood,
  • Andrew Pullin, 2B, Lakewood;
  • Jiandido Tromp, OF, Williamsport;
  • Denton Keys, LHP, GCL;
  • Colton Murray, RHP, Reading;
  • Manuel Chavez, LHP, Acereros del Norte (Mexican League).

J.P. Crawford received 12 of the 18 first-place votes with 2014 first-round draft pick Aaron Nola receiving three, and 2013 top prospect Maikel Franco receiving three.

The media members who voted are spread across all levels of the Phillies’ minor league system from the Gulf Coast League Phillies through the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. The list was compiled by Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle, who covers the Reading Fightin’ Phils.

I prefaced my submission with the disclaimer, “I followed the criteria as best I could. While I follow all affiliates, I prefer to project players I have actually seen. Therefore, my list is probably heavier than most with players from the lower levels”.  I submitted the following to Mike.

  1. I don’t see anyone in the organization with the potential of J.P. Crawford. I was impressed with his defense from the first time I saw him in the GCL in 2013. For a guy who is supposed to be carried to the majors on the strength of his glove, I have been increasingly pleased with the growth of his hit tool and plate discipline. His explanation of his new-found plate discipline upon his arrival in Clearwater during an interview with Kirsten Karbach is also impressive. J.P. possesses the intangibles to be a star. You will enjoy him in Reading next season.
  2. Aaron Nola kid throws strikes and is consistently around the strike zone. More velocity than I expected.
  3. Jesse Biddle looked real good down here, his call-up to Reading could solidify this slot or move him down one.
  4. Maikel Franco.  I was one who never questioned his defense at third, if he finally has AAA pitching solved …
  5. Roman Quinn was my shortstop of the future when I saw him during Instructs in 2012, then I saw Crawford.  Quinn looks comfortable in centerfield.
  6. Aaron Altherr was part of my favorite outfield during the 2013 season with Dugan and Perkins. They only played together about dozen times. Altherr looked good in center, but can play a corner.
  7. Matt Imhof, only saw him once, but he has looked good in the box scores. Just a feeling.
  8. Kelly Dugan impressed me with his plate discipline, power, and arm in Clearwater, looks like he is clicking in Reading, just needs to stay healthy.
  9. Dylan Cozens looked good in XST, surprised he looked competent in center when they tried him there, would like to see him get BBs up and Ks down.
  10. Carlos Tocci. I was never a Tocci guy but it looks like he has improved his hit tool in Lakewood. I can‘t ignore him anymore.
  11.  Andrew Pullin is another guy who continues to improve.  I like the way he goes about his job.  I didn’t realize second base was a new position for him when drafted/signed.
  12. Cameron Perkins.  All the kid did in Clearwater was hit. If he didn’t break his wrist, he might have been called up to Reading in 2013. Better OF defense than I expected. If he adjusts his hitting in AAA as he has at the lower levels, he’ll be hitting again.
  13. Zach Green.  His power loss is concerning, but I watched him in ST, and rehab. I still like him to recover his power stroke.
  14. Deivy Grullon has good defensive skills, still a lot of time to improve the bat.
  15. Jiandido Tromp looks good now that he’s finally healthy. Continued building on his XST success in Williamsport.
  16. Brandon Leibrandt. I liked what I saw, continues to look good.
  17. Denton Keys.  I really like this kid.  I thought he should have gone to Williamsport after XST, didn’t realize he was so young.
  18. Colton Murray finally had a bad outing on the 13th, but has been consistently good all year.
  19. Willians Astudillo.  The just needs a position.  He sure can hit.
  20. Manuel Chavez.  This is a 20-year old kid in Mexican League.  I read that it is the equivalent of AAA ball. I’ve been box score watching all summer.  His last 10-12 appearances were pretty good.

Other guys I like –

  • Mitch Gueller – liked him during rehab, had him at 20, bumped by Chavez.
  • Luis Encarnacion, but he just turned 17. I’ll wait a little more before I consider him.
  • I have been off and on with Jose Pujols. He could have come in at 19, but if they are going to convert Astudillo to outfield, they could conceivably be equally bad at the position. Astudillo is hitting better.
  • And, finally, I like Cody Forsythe. He performed well at Lakewood and continued to pitch well in Clearwater. Decided on Murray just before I clicked <SEND>.

Noticeably absent –

  • Miguel Gonzalez – tough to consider a 27-year old a prospect, and I wasn’t impressed with him in Clearwater.
  • Cord Sandberg – I really like him, but couldn’t justify putting him in my top 20 this time around.
  • Andrew Knapp – he looks better in Lakewood, but I can’t forget how bad he was in Clearwater when all he had to do was DH. Need to see more.
  • Severino Gonzalez – really liked him in Clearwater in 2013, looks like a different pitcher at the next level.
  • Chris Oliver – never saw him.
  • Aaron Brown – never saw him.
  • Tommy Joseph – need to see him healthy for an extended period.

There are probably a few other “names” I left off, but I’m comfortable with this list. Except for Chavez, Oliver, and Brown, I’ve seen all these guys at some point since March.

117 thoughts on “Two Prospect Lists to Mull Over”

  1. System certainly seems deeper than the past few years, lots of intriguing prospects. Will be interesting to see how some of the Top 20 lists pan out this year.

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  2. Jim – Were these lists submitted before Arano and Valentin were added to the system? I’m surprised not to see them. I figure Valentin is somewhere around Pullin in the rankings while Arano is arguably the #4 pitching prospect after Nola, Biddle and Imhoff.

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    1. They were, Pat. I’ve participated in this poll the last few years. I got my votes in late because I got side-tracked with the Little League World Series, so I got Valentin on the list I submitted to Mike Drago, but I was probably the only one.

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    2. Yes, I submitted mine on August 14th. Valentin didn’t join the team until the 16th. Frankly, in the few games in which I saw Valentin, I didn’t see anything that would have suggested that he belonged on this list. He reminds me of Angelo Mora.

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  3. I love Cozens. He his 16 HR in the Sally this year, and Lakewood is an awful offensive environment. I’ve been out there several times. If anyone wants to plan a trip out there, go on a $.50 wing night. The people that cater that have an easy 60 grade operation. But I digress… Cozens home/road splits are night and day. He looked like the league MVP away from Lakewood, but he still managed to hit 8 of his 16 HR in that offensive quicksand. I really hope he starts 2015 in Clearwater and they leave him there even if he struggles to adjust at first. He’s relatively new to full time baseball, but he is a freaking athlete. He might very well take another 3-4 years to develop into a major leaguer, but I really hope he does. I think he can stick in a corner outfield spot, but he’s so big, and so young, that it might make sense to start letting him get the feel for 1B at the different levels, that way he isn’t lost when his 6’6″ frame eventually pushes him there. Obviously Franco, Nola, and Crawford are very exciting prospects. Dugan can flat hit, and Quinn’s speed/defense will probably have him climb through the system pretty quick, but I like Cozens the most. If he hits his ceiling, he will be a really exciting player.

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  4. I believe most list will go something like this. 1.JP, 2/3 Franco/Nola in some order, 4. Quinn. After that the debates will really begin.I could see somebody’s 6 prospect being somebody else’s 15th and vise versa.It’s kind of the way the list was last year but the middle part seems much deeper.I agree w/ the above statement about Cozens. I’m very high on him. He’ll prob. be on my top 8 somewhere.How will people rank Biddle? I could see him as high as 5 or out of the top 10 as I heard some already say. It’ll make for an interesting debate.

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    1. JPC can hit at the A ball level but he fields at the HS level. No range to the 5 hole and is hesitant on slowly hit balls. But then again you people only worry about offensive stats. No wonder the pitching staffs across the minor league system look so poor. Take a look at the KC Royals rise, they are built on pitching and defense and situational and timely hitting.

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      1. And their top prospects flaming out is also probably a big part of their plan, right?

        Also, JPC is an excellent defender. It was his carrying tool coming into the draft before we knew how his bat would develop.

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      2. Have not heard that Crawford not a good fielder from anyone but you. How many years of top picks did the Royals need even to contend for a division?

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          1. What scouts. Probably Phillies ones. Probably the same ones who are waiting for Larry Greene to reach his potential beyond batting practice.

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            1. You might be on to something- those notoriously old school, tool-obsessed Larry Greene apologists writing at Baseball Prospectus called John Paul “one of the most defensively polished players I’ve seen come through the GCL and FSL. He’s a no doubt future big league short stop…defense will always be his calling card”… giving his glove a 65 grade, an inflated figure for sure, because those drama queens are prone to hyperbole and always try to stir up controversy with their sensationalized projections

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        1. that was a leap , yeah for some reason he doesnt like JP but im not sure he is a racist, anyway the term racist means that he has a power to hold over the person, so if he were the coach or an affiliate of the team and could some how effect how JP is looked at then yes he would be a racist , but since I dont imagine he holds any such designation he is probably just your run of the mill under educated bigot

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      7. I Know I been ripped, but you must admit anonymous view of jpc is the worst comment ever made on this site, and to bring up the royals is funny as shit , We have jim seeing this kid play almost ever day, and anonymous comes on with the complete opposite based on what??

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        1. Ah, roccom, you are far from the worst poster here. I enjoy most of your comments, even when I disagree with you and/or can’t decipher your meaning. If you could only have a little more appreciation for Jimmy …

          Of course you are right about the Crawford comment above. Not sure it is the worst ever, but among the worst.

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      8. Everyone who has seen Crawford in person raves about the defense. After watching infield at the Futures Game I can see why. He is not the defender that Francisco Lindor is, but he has that smoothness and polish to him (he was much better than both Seager, who isn’t a SS and Baez who isn’t smooth). The arm is not a Jimmy Rollins cannon, but it is more than enough for shortstop. He is the real deal on defense.

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        1. What is with the all the errors and resulting poor fielding percentage? Seems to lack some polish based on that. What’s his range? Better than rollins?

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          1. Errors are a terrible measure of a shortstop prospect (you only get an error if you get to the ball), put it this way at age 21 in Hi-A Andrelton Simmons had 28 errors and a .958 fielding percentage. Every one of his actions is smooth (hence polish), the speed of the game, poor fields, and inconsistent 1B all contribute to errors.

            His range is less than peak Rollins (which was incredible) but better than current Rollins

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    1. He pitched in Venezuela last year and the Phils sent him to Mexico to get more opportunity. He was lights out last year. There are two or three Venezuelan pitchers coming to the states next year who may be better than Chavez, but he would hold his own. He was a bit old to be coming out of Venezuela and still get playing time needed to show his skill set and velocity.

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  6. I like the list but , Zach Green’s power went down due to a hip operation would be my guess, however what has me worried about him is everybody says his bat speed is poor and that is tough to increase he fairly mature and has a large frame. I much like the people above have been impressed with Cozens. and Who is Manuel Chavez and why is he playing in the Mexican league and not a Phillies affiliate

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    2. Hooray!!!!…it’s about time. Keep him in Clrwtr so his hoped-for progress can be monitored!! He should be aiming to reach 175 by ST ’15!!

      Only when he gains that weight strength will we be able to see what he’s got…and 185 by ’16! For that kind of bonus money, they should be hot on his tail about this!!!

      No excuses!!! He belong in Clrwtr for most of the off-season!!

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    1. Jim picked him because of the level of competition. There are a lot of veterans in the Mexican league, included some AAAA type guys who spent time in the majors. Chavez is only 20 years old so he was facing a lot of guys with way more experience than he has since he had never even pitched above the VSL. And he did have some appearances where he went 4-6 innings and did a good job.

      That said, I don’t think any of us know much about his stuff or what the Phillies think of him. But, for now, he’s interesting.

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  9. Altherr and Severino absolutely do not belong on this list. Furthermore, Altherr at #6 overall makes me question the abilities to evaluate prospects of ever single person that was asked to fill out this list.

    Juwan James all over again. (to a lesser extent).

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  11. Ranking Biddle above Franco and Quinn makes zero sense to me. He has poor control and is not in a good mental state. Both Quinn and Franco have elite carrying tools.

    I am also high on Cozens. I think he will break out next year.

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      1. I do think Cozens had a good year, but I wouldn’t call it a breakout year. I think if he does what he did in the second half again for a full year at Clearwater, he will be on major prospect charts.

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    2. I think we might be a little too quick to bury Biddle here. His walk % last year was actually higher last year than this year (14% to 11.9%), when he was a top 100 prospect. And that’s the biggest knock against him. He still throws in the low 90s and he still has that curveball. I’m not saying that he didn’t take a step back, but there was a pretty big gap between him and Quinn coming into the year and there’s still legitimate questions about whether Quinn will hit enough to be an everyday regular.

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      1. I am not “burying” him. I am just being realistic. It is really friggin hard to be a major league pitcher. Sometimes I feel like posters forget how small the margin of error is.

        Biddle’s walk rate slightly improved from last year, but is still horrifically high. Averaging 5 walks/9 innings in AA (in both of 2 seasons) is a serious red flag. Meanwhile, his HR rate doubled and his k rate dropped 5% in his second season in AA. And I haven’t even discussed his mental state.

        Being a major league prospect has to be earned every year IMO. As you get to higher levels, the true prospects perform and the “Baby Aces” get filtered out.

        Until/unless he cuts his walk rate dramatically, I highly doubt that he will be able to contribute at the MLB level. If you disagree with me, please find an example of a productive MLB pitcher that averaged 5 walks/9 innings in AA. Giving me a few examples will change my opinion.

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        1. Randy Johnson, Sandy Koufax, Jamie Moyer, Lefty Grove, Randy Wolf, Curt Simmons, Billy pierce, Clayton Kershaw all averaged between 4.5 and 6 walks per nine innings early in their career. Basically half the lefties I could think of off the top of my head had control issues early on. I’m certainly not saying he’s in that class, but there are many examples out there.

          He can’t be successful at 5BB/9, but many pitchers struggle with control early on. Just because that’s where is he now, it doesn’t mean this is the pitcher he’s always going to be. You say yourself that it’s really hard to become a major league pitcher. It’s unrealistic for us to expect him not to struggle at some point.

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            1. Honestly, I could care less what you said. Does being arrogant on a message board make you feel better about yourself?

              Here’s a thought: instead of just taking an educated guess and stating it as fact, why don’t YOU go do the research and let us know what you find.

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            3. here’s the thing Pat..i come here for entertainment purposes. I like to play devils advocate because i think it makes the conversation more interesting. i think there is a lot of “group think” on this blog. right up to the point of the kid not making it. mostly because at the heart, we are all fans.

              but i like to push back on people’s arguments because it makes it more interesting and we all learn more when we have a deeper discussion.

              my point on biddle is his walk rate is very high for AA. and as he advances, and the hitters get better, it will only get worse. i am open to being proven wrong, and hope that i am. i would love for biddle to be a stud for the phillies for a decade. but i am tempering my enthusiasm until it happens.

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          2. you have to factor in how much better the hitters are as you move up. quoting mlb stats are meaningless to this discussion. the point is he is walking AA hitters at a very high rate. that is a massive red flag.

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            1. Not exactly sure why he thought you were being arrogant, you weren’t. One reason why you won’t find many pitchers with 5plus per 9 walk rates (in the minors) at the ML level bc if you are walking that many then you aren’t getting promoted. IMO you werent burying him, just stating facts. I actually think Biddle should drop out of the top 10. He def has the stuff but there are a ton of pitchers who gave good stuff but can never “figure it out”.

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          1. I honestly don’t think about top 10 or top 30 or whatever. I just try to figure out if a guy will make an impact at the MLB level. In some orgs, a top 5 guy will not be an impact player. So grading vs system seems meaningless IMO

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    3. Biddle has the tools. I am really hoping he gets his head on straight and starts throwing with confidence next year. That curve ball is just nasty…still

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    4. Biddle’s 5 innings of no-hit ball against Daytona probably tainted my view of him. I’m not above some wishful thinking. This was clearly a case of hoping a kid could live up to his expectations.

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  13. The title ‘prospect’ always gas to carry the caveat ‘who knows?’. But there comes a point where a guy has to pass the eye test- I’ve seen everyone north of the GCL, and while there are a number of guys who I’m sure will make the big leagues, the only guts I’ve seen who really look like they have ‘it’ are Crawford, tocci, Nola, and Franco. Maybe not super stars, but good big leaguers at some point.

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  14. IMO, Biddle (unfortunately) belong down the list; certainly not as high as here. There are great doubts about two things: 1-He cannot, so far, exhibit the kind of control AND command that augers well for a MLB career; 2-His inability to cope with inevitable failure that pitchers must be able to deal with.
    Suggest he be moved back to about #8 until he can show he is overcoming both issues. Hope sp…but we’ve gotta see that.

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    1. I think that inability to cope with failure stuff is a load of BS.

      He took an ice block to the head.

      http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/7/21/5916767/phillies-prospect-jesse-biddle-on-the-mend-from-concussion

      “Biddle himself said that he felt unhappy and didn’t know why, and that he didn’t feel fluid on the mound. While he had medical permission to pitch, it doesn’t take a doctor to know what was really happening here: he was still feeling the effects of the hail blow to the head. I know from personal experience that headaches, general misery and feeling unnatural in ways that you can’t quite explain are classic concussion symptoms. Even after the initial pain subsides, it can take weeks (or months) before you are genuinely better neurologically.”

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      1. I wonder if baseball does the baseline testing that the NFL and NHL do, when it comes to concussions?
        I believe the medical facility is in Pittsburgh that does the studies and the work.

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  16. I am JP, Franco, Nola, Quinn and probably Biddle. But, I am shaky on Biddle because he may very well start next season back at Clearwater.

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  17. Hey Jim. I would love to understand your ranking of Tocci. Especially the comment “..but it looks like he has improved his hit tool in Lakewood.”

    the way I look at it, his walk rate went down slightly, and is pretty low. his k rate went up and is very high for a non-power hitter. His OB% did improve, but it is still below .300.

    I mean he did improve, but off of an extremely poor base. What makes you feel more bullish then your initial diagnosis?

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    1. He doubled his ISO, improved his slugging by 75 points his wOBA went up 50 points, he hit 8 triples and 2 HRs (0 of each last season).

      He’s got a long way to go but he did improve

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        1. Well “good” is tough to quantify statistically…..

          He improved as we all hoped he would. As young player in need of weight training he’s doing just fine.

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          1. actually, “good” is not tough to quantify statistically. it is extremely easy to quantify statistically. i don’t mean to be snarky, but are you new to this site? if so, there are a lot of good posts in the archives on how you look at a player statistically.

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            1. Are you looking at the raw stats or monthly splits? Tocci had a couple of good months but was inconsistent overall.

              However, he is only 18 and playing A ball so the age differential needs to be factored in at some point.

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            2. Regarding monthly splits, Tocci did have a very good July. However, his August was horrible and his first half and second half were basically identical. and so i question whether July was an outlier.

              regarding his age, that is fair, but i believe is wrongly framing the argument. at the end of the day, any prospect has to demonstrate at least one hitting tool that could be a carrying tool. I think we all agree that Tocci will never be a power hitter. it is hard to see him being a big base stealer despite reports that he has the speed tool. and with a low walk rate and a high k rate it is hard to see how he will have a great hit tool.

              but if you truly want top see a comp of a skinny 19 year old in the SAL, look at Freddy Galvis, who was 18 in the SAL. 19 in CLW. his batting line is basically the same as Tocci’s year 19 season in the SAL except, Galvis had a 7.5% walk rate and 11% k rate. dramatically better than Tocci’s 4.5% and 17.5% respectively. This is my issue in a nutshell.

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            3. Don’t be a smart ass. It makes it tough to take your posts seriously.

              What would have met the “good” threshold statistically for a skinny 18 year old CF in A ball?

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            4. i wasn’t trying to be a smart ass. i truly didn’t understand your point. it is really not hard to look at statistics and come up with comps. as i said in a prior post,

              i believe his young age wrongly frames the argument. at the end of the day, any prospect has to demonstrate at least one hitting tool that could be a carrying tool. I think we all agree that Tocci will never be a power hitter. it is hard to see him being a big base stealer despite reports that he has the speed tool. and with a low walk rate and a high k rate it is hard to see how he will have a great hit tool.

              but if you truly want top see a comp of a skinny 19 year old in the SAL, look at Freddy Galvis, who was 18 in the SAL. 19 in CLW. his batting line is basically the same as Tocci’s year 19 season in the SAL except, Galvis had a 7.5% walk rate and 11% k rate. dramatically better than Tocci’s 4.5% and 17.5% respectively. This is my issue in a nutshell.

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            6. A good prospect IMO is someone who has good scouting reports AND also produces. I want to see in game power, speed or hit tool. I also want to see good peripherals at an age appropriate level with a clear opportunity to improve as he moves up and faces better competition.

              Specifically, I want to see a k rate that is reasonable relative to power. A walk rate that shows some discipline. A steal rate that shows speed or a HR/Double rate that shows power.

              If you want to know specific numbers, just look at league stats. If you can’t dominate low A, there is a very low chance that you will be an impact player at the mlb level.

              It really is that simple IMO

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          2. No, it really isn’t that simple. First, an excellent fielder in CF, which Tocci is, doesn’t ever need to dominate his league with a bat. That offensive dominance is the standard for a 1B or corner OF. Second, the guy needs to achieve that at an age appropriate level. That is key and Tocci is very young for full-season A-ball. He’d be age-appropriate for GCL Phillies. To be considered a serious prospect, a guy needs to have serious tools/scouting report, show season-to-season progress, and not wash out at an age-appropriate league (or older for league). I interpret the reports on Tocci as a very talented guy, with a very serious flaw (strength) he needs to work on as well as the need to refine his offense and baserunning across the board. Its not a case like LGJ where the scouts look at the guy’s play and you get the impression from what is written that they are thinking ‘oops, missed on that guy’. The scouting comments on Tocci remain very positive. It is not easy to be an 18-year old at Lakewood. Frankly, to expect offensive dominance is beyond silly. Eventually, he obviously needs to produce offensively. The time to be overly worried hasn’t arrived yet. I don’t have him as high as these lists, but still top 10.

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            1. V1again

              I don’t understand your post. Sounds like only guys you consider “prospects” are those that are top 25-30 in all of baseball, according to your standards?I think you misunderstanding people’s stance on Tocci, as I’ve never heard anyone even reference him as a top 100 guy. What is so bad about an 18 year old (I know, now 19) not dominating low A? Based off the comments I see from everyone, they all acknowledge that the kid needs to greatly improve his strength to ever have a chance, but I think we are all looking 4 years or so down the road. Not everyone bursts into the scene like JPC.

              Now I’ve never seen him live, but by all accounts, the kid plays great defense in CF, has a good arm and very good speed. I think a contributing factor is also that there aren’t any questions about his defensive position. Look around our system and identify how many guys don’t have question marks about whether they can stick at their current position. I can tell you that there aren’t many.I do side with you that the I and be rates are worrisome. Maybe I’m wrong, but that could be attributed to getting overpowered by guys that are a bit older and more physically developed?

              I guess I just don’t understand why every time somebody posts about Tocci you always challenge them. Give it a couple years before we decide if he has a shot or not. If at 21 we are still talking about the same issues then yea I’d say it is a problem. GIve the 18 year old some time.

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          3. I really don’t worry about the August decline. He’s a skinny guy who wears down over the course of the season. Legg made a point of saying he has done better in that regard this year than he did last year. He says he is stronger this year, and the increased ISO proves that. Tocci and the Phillies agree that he needs to get stronger. When he does, he’ll be able to end seasons strong. Today, it really isn’t a shock that he can’t pull that off.

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    2. In most cases here, I haven’t seen the player since ST. I had to go by box scores and others’ reports. I never understood the Tocci thing. I wasn’t impressed with him in the GCL two years ago. He got a lot of praise for his modest production in 2013. This year in ST, he made good contact. Good in this case meant few poorly struck balls, like pop ups and topped grounders. His ground balls were hit hard and his balls to the outfield were closer to line drives than fly balls. The reports from Lakewood sounded positive after ST. His slash improved and he seems to be showing some gap power. I still don’t get the Tocci thing, but he’s improving while playing at a 3-4 year age disadvantage. I’ll be interested to see where he starts next season, and how long until he’s promoted if he starts in Lakewood again.

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        1. It’s bc CF is a hard position to play. You pretty much need to be an elite defender (in terms of all the OF positions). If you can’t cut it in CF a move to the corners is an option (RF if the arm is strong, LF if it isn’t). Your value is higher as a CF bc there aren’t as many who can man the position like there are at the corners. CF is the equivalent to SS in the infield with RF being 3B and LF being 1B (If that makes sense.

          As far as Tocci goes, the numbers are obviously not eye popping (or anything close to that) however you need to take other things in account when evaluating him. He is still young, the strength is an issue and he has progressed. I’ve seen him play (about 20 games, SSS), he plays a great CF with a solid arm. He has speed but it hasn’t translated to SB, that can be worked on (working on reading pitchers move, better jumps and knowing when to steal). He also makes solid hard contact but that’s when the strength comes into play, hard GBs to infielders can turn into hits, etc. With added strength and work on the bases I can see him being a Doug Glanville type.

          Btw when I thought of Glanville I was curious to see his exact numbers so to baseball reference I went. I knew/remember he played well with his first stint with the Phillies but his 1999 season surprised me . . . I realize it was an offensive era he played in, his 1999 season in 2014 turns into a top 10 MVP season.

          .325/.376/.457 101 Runs 204 Hits 38 Doubles 34SB 11HR 79RBI

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  18. I have never seen Tocci play but the numbers are not encouraging. I just don’t understand why evaluators love centerfielders so much. Altherr is not nearly the prospect that Dugan is bc Dugan will probably be able to hit for power and average while playing good defense. Altherr has a long swing and probably won’t hit .240 in the majors. A little power and the ability to play center do not make a major league prospect imo if the player can’t hit for average.

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    1. I think it is more of a combo thing. If a CF has good range he should be a very good leadoff option.

      One hopes that the speed in the field translates to the base paths. Power is secondary for leadoff hitters, the ability to steal bases like Hamilton does for the Reds changes situations more than having a CF with pop.

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    2. I like Dugam better than Altherr personally, but CFs have to cover do much ground that it is a huge advantage for a team that’s a guy to play that position at a plus level. Not unlike SS in that regard

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      1. The other thing to keep in mind – this coming from someone who, like you, likes Dugan better than Altherr – the scouts seem to see more potential for improvement from Altherr than from Dugan. More tools. I don’t know if I buy it (I think Altherr is getting to the age where the tools would have manifested themselves if they were going to), but clearly that’s what’s going on.

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      2. But If a guy can’t hit, he can’t play in the majors let alone lead off. Altherr may have a chance to produce a decent .ops bc he has some power and a good approach could lead to a decent obp but if a guy can’t hit .250 in the majors, he needs to hit 30 hr or he’s a liability in a lineup. Tocci will need to have an elite hit tool like Ben bc he’s never going to hit a ball out of the park and pitchers will challenge him all day long. So far Tocci has shown a minus hit tool so I just don’t get the hype around him. Even his supporters have his ceiling as a light hitting defender if he makes the majors.

        Neither of those profiles should be top 10 over guys like Dugan, Cozzens, Green, and Pullin.

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        1. I think you’re caught up to some extent in the hitting standards of the past decade. You may well be correct ultimately about both players – you probably are about Altherr; the jury is still very much out on Tocci. Obviously both would need to improve in some respects, but you don’t have to be a slugger to succeed with Tocci’s K rate, nor do you need to hit 30 HR to succeed with Altherr’s BA. At least if you are a good fielding center fielder. Here are a couple of examples:

          .270/.322/.362 (Martin)
          .244/.319/.378 (Jennings)

          Both of those guys are well above average regulars.

          I’m not saying either are a perfect comp for either player, and obviously both are upsides that neither player is likely to reach. But that’s what people are hoping on.

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          1. Not trying to be funny here but without first names, I don’t know who those two guys are but yes, I may be wrong about both of their ability to make contact in the majors, but past performance is the best indicator of future performance and neither of these guys have shown a good enough hit tool to take advantage of their plus tools. Altherr doesn’t make enough contact for his power to show in the majors and Tocci doesn’t make enough contact for his defense to matter. If you are looking for Tony Gwynn Jr. then I do think Tocci can reach that level.

            While I haven’t figured out who those to comps are that you listed, both are below .700 ops. Maybe I haven’t adjusted to how far offense has fallen in baseball.

            Also that was one hell of a run on sentence lol

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            1. Desmond Jennings and Leonys Martin.

              And yes, I do think you haven’t adjusted. But in fairness, in both cases you have plus defenders in center field who also contribute a bit on the base paths. As hitters, Martin is significantly below average, whereas Jennings is a little above average (2014 and career). Which seems odd since their OBP and SLG% are not that far apart (this year, at least – Jennings has a bigger edge on a career basis), but ball park adjustments explain most of the disparity.

              As for Tocci and Altherr, I do think you’re too far down on them, though I am not quite as high on either player as is the consensus. But it isn’t as if the other guys you cite – Cozens, Green, Pullin, Dugan – don’t have issues of their own. If ALL you go on is “past performance,” then none of those guys are going to make it. But that’s the beauty of minor league baseball – sometimes a light goes on & a prospect figures it out.

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    3. My comment above was in response to your post here, posted in the wrong spot.

      It’s bc CF is a hard position to play. You pretty much need to be an elite defender (in terms of all the OF positions). If you can’t cut it in CF a move to the corners is an option (RF if the arm is strong, LF if it isn’t). Your value is higher as a CF bc there aren’t as many who can man the position like there are at the corners. CF is the equivalent to SS in the infield with RF being 3B and LF being 1B (If that makes sense.

      As far as Tocci goes, the numbers are obviously not eye popping (or anything close to that) however you need to take other things in account when evaluating him. He is still young, the strength is an issue and he has progressed. I’ve seen him play (about 20 games, SSS), he plays a great CF with a solid arm. He has speed but it hasn’t translated to SB, that can be worked on (working on reading pitchers move, better jumps and knowing when to steal). He also makes solid hard contact but that’s when the strength comes into play, hard GBs to infielders can turn into hits, etc. With added strength and work on the bases I can see him being a Doug Glanville type.

      Btw when I thought of Glanville I was curious to see his exact numbers so to baseball reference I went. I knew/remember he played well with his first stint with the Phillies but his 1999 season surprised me . . . I realize it was an offensive era he played in, his 1999 season in 2014 turns into a top 10 MVP season.

      .325/.376/.457 101 Runs 204 Hits 38 Doubles 34SB 11HR 79RBI

      Like

    1. In your notables list-how can Gueller be a prospect. He’s 3 years in and still in so
      hort season A with a 29/31 walk to K rate and an era pushing 5. What a great 1st round pick that was. Ands as far as Forsythe, good numbers don’t tell the whole story. Check out his inherited runners scoring %. It’s like 70%. But his numbers are good. Maybe he should be the starter.

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  20. I think we are starting to get enough prospect depth within the organization that it is only a matter of time before one or more of these kids becomes a very good player. A few years back fans were excited and waiting for Dom Brown to become the next middle of the order type of guy. We had some other good prospects at the time, but some were traded and/or didn’t pan out. You can not trade away so many prospects and rely on one or two prospects to come up and produce. JPC, Franco, and Nola all have a very good chance at succeeding in the big leagues. It is not a guarantee obviously, but I highly doubt we don’t get at least one quality big leaguer out of the three. Then you move on to guys like Biddle, Quinn, Dugan, and MAG. All have question marks and have had health issues. These four guys possess a lot of talent and while I don’t see any being superstars, they could be pieces on a good team as average-slightly above average players IMO. There are a lot of guys who are in the lower levels of the system who have significant potential and may reach AA before next season ends.

    Random question for today: Any chance we see Altherr share some time in CF with Revere towards the end of next season?

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    1. I have serious doubts about Altherr. He’s a great athlete and has some power, but his hit tool is highly questionable and the plate discipline is only so-so to poor – what he did at Reading is typically not what really good hitters do at that level in that league and in that park. If we don’t see a serious surge forward by him sometime next year, I doubt his ceiling is any higher than, say, a 4th outfielder.

      In my view, Kelly Dugan is an immensely better prospect than Altherr and I think my view will be validated in time. I don’t wish anything but success for Altherr but I don’t see him doing very well as a major league hitter.

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  21. I think Revere deserves to play CF full time without sharing time. He has a chance to be the only player in Phillies history to hit above .300 and steal 50. There’s a limited number of players in baseball history who has done that. It’s funny bc Revere gets knocked for a lot of his offensive production yet he’s above league average in OBP and is only 10 points below “power hitting slugger” Ryan Howard in Slugging %.

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  22. Now we see an approach to Dom Brown that could end up his being shipped outta Philly during this winter. It was only 3-4 days ago that I asked for that to be done as a change of scenery move likely getting some lower-level prospect or two in return. With Dom’s physical attributes, his being 27, and his ’13 season (27 HRs, etc.)…there could be several teams interested.

    IMO, the FO is about fed up with his performance and inability to adjust his swings plus his mediocre left fielding.
    That and other outfield issues with this team call for the return in trade(s) of one or two prospect outfielders…with one ready to join the big club in ’15.

    I wish Dom well….and he just might make a comeback elsewhere out of the Phils environment. But not in Philly.

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  23. I don’t understand. Why would a team looking for an outfielder be interested in our left fielder who has performance issues, who has an inability to adjust his swing, and who plays mediocre defense; AND part with a 2015, major league-ready oufielder prospect and possibly another prospect? Why wouldn’t they just play that 2015, major league-ready outfielder in their outfield?

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  24. You are correct. Either settle for a low A prospect/lottery ticket or someone else’s player who once was a prospect, another change of scenery guy. That is the return for Dom Brown.

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    1. As previously posted, a Desmond Jennings/Jesus Montero type may be the only available return for Dom Brown at this time.
      Players who once were highly ranked but have now descended and plateau to a another level, but still young enough to turn it around with a change of scenery.

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      1. Desmond Jennings is not a failed prospect but a well above average major league regular. A Desmond Jennings for Brown trade would never happen and would be absurdly uneven.Prying Jennings from the Rays, if it could be done at all, would require at least one of our top prospects (and would not be worth doing).

        Montero is more the kind of former prospect that might be a realistic return. Needless to say he is much less attractive than Jennings. Even that aside, not sure he’s a very good fit for the Phillies.

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  25. FWIW

    01. JP Crawford
    02. Aaron Nola
    03. Maikel Franco
    04. Jesse Biddle
    05. Roman Quinn
    06. Deivi Grullon
    07. Luis Encarnacion
    08. Matt Imhof
    09. Jesse Valentin
    10. Carlos Tocci
    11. Aaron Altherr
    12. DylanCozens
    13. Jiandido Tromp
    14. Cameron Perkins
    15. Zach Green
    16. Cameron Perkins
    17. Severino Gonzalez
    18. Brandon Liebrandt
    19. Denton Keys
    20. Aaron Brown

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    3. Swap Quinn and Biddle, which is nit picking I know, and drop Altherr down to 16 and put Dugan at 11 and I think you did a great job.

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  27. Dugan versus Altherr .. there seems to be a disagreement between the scouting consensus and the readership here.

    I tend to fall somewhat in the middle, albeit closer to the readership, that is, regarding Dugan as a better prospect. Though I think that neither is likely to be an average or better major league regular – with Dugan a little more likely than Altherr. Let’s look at them systematically from a performance perspective.

    They are the same age (Altherr 4 months younger) and level, so that makes the comparison easier.

    Altherr has a positional advantage and a base running advantage. Defensively, Altherr is “better” in the sense that he can play CF, but we already counted that. I’m not on firm ground here, as I haven’t seen either of them play, but I get a sense that both players are solid but not spectacular defensively. But Altherr’s positional edge, and base running edge, gives him an advantage, all else equal.

    But of course all else is not equal. Dugan is a better hitter. How much better?

    K rate and power are pretty close, though with small edges to Dugan. On plate discipline Dugan seems to have a clear edge. Dugan’s batting average is also higher, though that seems to be largely BABIP related, and minor league BABIP rates are notoriously unreliable.

    But put it all together and Dugan’s small advantages across the board add up.Oliver projections give Dugan a rather large edge as a hitter – large enough IMO to outweigh Altherr’s positional and base running advantages.

    The “x” factor is “projection,” and there the scouts seem to see more room for growth in Altherr. Maybe so. My own instinct is that, while 23 year old prospects do have room for growth, true “break out” performances tend to be less likely after that age. And Dugan’s hit tool just seems better – I’m not sure it’s reasonably to expect big improvement in that area for Altherr at this point, and I have to agree with other commenters here that Altherr’s limitations in that regard will probably keep him from being more than a 4th or 5th outfielder.

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