In what has been a disappointing 2014 season for the Phillies, one thing has become abundantly clear: the team’s future in the outfield is muddled. Ben Revere, Domonic Brown, and Marlon Byrd have struggled as a unit, and out of those three guys, the only one who has provided much of anything may not be here past July 31.
Brown’s problems are another story for another day, and Byrd’s story may be written over the next few weeks if Ruben Amaro, Jr. finds a taker for the right fielder.
There is one big question here: What is the team’s future in center field? Set aside Brown for a second. Forget about Byrd. Just block the corner outfield out of your mind. Where does this team plan to go in center field?
Revere is an interesting case. Amaro tied himself to Revere as the team’s center fielder when he acquired him a couple of off-seasons ago. His two years here left many questions about whether or not he is someone you can move forward with.
The walk rate is low, at 2.7%. The power numbers are obviously non-existent. The defense has been questionable at times. Fangraphs has his WAR at 0.8, while Baseball-Reference has him slightly in the negative, at -0.1.
Revere may be a guy to keep on the bench as a late-inning speed guy. He’s had good contact numbers throughout his career, and would be a decent player to use as a pinch-hitter. What the Phillies cannot do is put Revere in a spot where he cannot succeed. That spot would be everyday starting center fielder. The sooner the organization realizes that Revere is not an everyday player, the better. It’s hard to fill out a lineup card every day and know that you have such a minuscule chance of a player hitting a homer or adding an extra base hit.
To those who say “Well, you can’t just fill out your lineup card with guys hitting 30 homers”, just take a look at the 2008 squad. You had power in Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, and Werth atop that lineup. Any one of those guys could pop a homer at any time, which makes it frustrating when you have to fill out a lineup and know you aren’t getting any power.
But, can it get better?
There is hope in the minors. The drumbeat for Leandro Castro has gotten stronger in recent weeks, after hitting .294/.336./.480 in June. There are plenty of questions about Castro’s defense, but if he continues to hit that way, you’d have no choice but to bring him up.
Offensively, it’s still hard to see Castro putting up those types of numbers in the Majors. At 25, this is his time to make a move. If he doesn’t do it soon, he’ll be easy to forget about come next spring. Two more impact months could land him a spot on the roster in September, when he would be playing for a spot on the 25-man in 2015.
Meanwhile, Roman Quinn’s move to center is a tacit admission of two things: J.P. Crawford is the future at shortstop, and the dearth of outfield talent gave the Phillies another guy to take a look at in the coming months. So far, Quinn’s return from the torn Achilles’ tendon has been a bit of a mixed bag, as he’s hitting .252/.338/.311, with 8 stolen bases. Obviously, Quinn’s speed is his key asset, as he stole 30 bags in 66 games in 2012 and 32 in 2013 in Lakewood.
The injury was a major setback, as was the drafting of Crawford, but this is a fresh shot for him at a different position. He played some outfield in high school, but the Phillies did draft him to be a shortstop. He likely won’t be one in Philadelphia.
Quinn had 21 extra-base hits in 267 at-bats in 2011 (.408 SLG%) and 15 last year in 260 at-bats (.346 SLG%), including five homers. If Quinn can at least show some sort of power in the minors, you would at least know you could have someone in the lineup that can provide some pop. If he continues hitting like he is now, though, would that really be an upgrade over Revere? He has 4 extra-base hits in 119 at-bats, for that aforementioned .311 SLG%.
Quinn deserves a bit of a pass right now. He’s only 21 years old, so he certainly has age on his side. He needs to worry about getting healthy first of all, and then learn the new position. The offense will come.
There are a couple of other names to add to the center field list, namely Carlos Tocci and recent draft pick Aaron Brown.
Tocci has obviously been closely followed for a while now. At 18, he certainly has youth on his side, but he’s no longer looked at as the wunderkind of the minors. He is repeating Low-A Lakewood this year, and not really repeating it in some sort of convincing manner. After a .209/.261/.249 line last year, he’s hit .234/.287/.293 this year.
The good news? He should grade out well in center, and has a strong enough arm to play the position. (That’s certainly one thing that can’t be said about Revere.) The hope is that Tocci continues to fill out and can at least be a role player in the Majors.
The Phillies will be somewhat behind the 8-ball roster-wise, with Tocci. He will have to be on the 40-man roster after the 2016 if the Phillies want to keep him from being plucked in the Rule V Draft.
Brown has reported to Williamsport, and has hit .273/.304/.364 thus far. Just about everyone has raved about his throwing arm, but the questions at Pepperdine surrounded his strikeout/walk numbers. That’s something he will have to improve upon. If Brown doesn’t fit in center, the corner spots are possible.
The Phillies’ money right now is on Quinn. The hope is that he develops some power once his full health has returned, and that he can learn the position well enough to become a full-time guy. Quinn reliving his 2012 numbers (.281/.370/.408) would make things easy for the organization. That’s a guy you can win with. It won’t be easy to repeat those numbers, and he has a long way to go. Getting to the Majors by the end of 2016 should be Quinn’s goal.
Right now, continuing to put Revere out there as a starter borders on lunacy. You aren’t winning championships with a .658 OPS, middling 0.8 WAR, .290 wOBA, 81 wRC+, and 2.7% BB rate. That’s what Revere has done this season. That’s what has to stop.
If Quinn is not the answer, maybe Castro could be. Tocci could suddenly put things together, but being in the Majors before 2017 would be a surprise. Brown would be on the fast-track if he hits well enough.
That said, one thing is for sure: Revere as the everyday center fielder cannot be an option. Not now, and not in the future. If the team has to go outside the organization that would be a major disappointment, because that would mean one of these guys had failed. But in this rebuilding period, the Phillies will have plenty of chances to look at their youth and make some judgments. Hopefully, one of them just happens to work out.
Phuture Phillies 
You don’t but Altherr in center?
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Buy. Buy Altherr in center.
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Yeah, the omission of Altherr from this discussion is kind of big, I think he could very easily be the answer to the question “who’s going to be our starting CF in September of 2015?” Revere is a guy who might have trade value if Amaro is looking to do something out of the box–he could be a very useful bench piece for a team that wants to add a late-inning speed option, a la Dave Roberts in 2004. He could also be someone they put on the market during the offseason or at the deadline next year, especially if he ticks up a little bit offensively.
I did the math on this once, and I think Tocci doesn’t have to be protected on the 40-man until the 2016-17 offseason? He was signed in August 2011, but he didn’t play until 2012 according to Baseball Reference. I’d be curious about that.
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Fortunately the learning curve of centerfield for Roman Quinn is far less difficult then the learning curve for shortstop, since CF was his baliwick in HS.
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In the short run, they just don’t have an option other than Revere. By short run I mean at least through mid 2015. And I’m assuming that Castro doesn’t surprise. I don’t think he will, but stranger things have happened. His overall line is an underwelming .263/.322/.404, and, with questionable defense, that doesn’t translate into a major league regular. That said, there has been real (i.e., not just BABIP driven) improvement as a hitter so far in 2014.
In mid 2015, you have an outside chance of Atherr. Outside in the sense that continued development along the same path won’t be enough – he’ll need to break out. But he could.
That means Quinn as the next possibility. I would think 2016 would be the earliest possibility for him.
IF Atherr and Castro don’t make it, and IF Quinn needs more time than early 2016, and IF the team is on the rise by then (I’m a skeptic), then I could see them going outside the organization for a stop gap. Otherwise they will mudle through with Revere – he doesn’t hit FA till 2017.
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IMO, Altherr does give you a better choice for a more defensive metric CF then Revere. Revere offers more in the hit tool. If Revere is moved at the trade deadline, then assume Mayberry and Altherr share CF.
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I don’t know if I have anything much to add to our prior conversations on this point. I would say three things:
(1) The decision to bring him up again is probably a bad sign for his future as a regular, both because of development issues, and as a sign that the Phillies don’t see him as a future regular. Though the latter could be wrong; given the vagaries of the Phillies’ development process.
(2) Are you right about his defensive value vis a vis Revere? I don’t have any idea, and honestly I doubt that you do either. I tend to be suspicious of positive minor league defensive reports; good defensive reports often translate to just average in the majors. And that’s about what Revere is. But it’s certainly possible that Atherr would be a defensive upgrade.
(3) OTOH. I am pretty confident he would contribute less than Revere on offense. The same or worse as a hitter; much less base running value.
BUT all that said, if one takes a moderately but not extravagantly optimistic view of Atherr, and if Revere doesn’t improve (he could), then about a year from now we may be having a very different conversation.
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And he is probably one of the 3 or 4 LEAST likely players on the 25 man to be traded. Basically the only players less likely to be traded are Howard and a couple of the young relievers.
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Well LarryM….we do know one defensive factoid about Altherr compared to Revere…the strength of the arm. Rever’s is the weakest of Phillie’s OFers in the system.
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I have read some mixed reviews about Aaron Brown. Jamie Moyer spoke highly of him after the draft. Keith Law sees him as a 4th outfielder.
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moyer or law I trust moyer – wouldn’t even read law’s stuff never played ball in his life
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So you won’t trust a guy who worked in player evaluation at the high levels for a big league club? It’s not like he’s unfamiliar with the game.
Brown was a third round pick. ~80 guys were were picked before him, and many clubs saw him as a better option on the mound. Why is it so hard to believe that Law may be skillfully evaluating him, or anyone for that matter? Do you discount Law when he says he likes JP Crawford? When he says he likes Kelly Dugan? Are those opinions invalid as well?
I think people sometimes weight national writer/evaluators, and Keith Law in particular, too far one way or the other. He is one man – he is not a guru above the rest. His opinion should carry equal weight because he’s a professional doing the job in a professional way (he doesn’t guess or scout by video, he goes and sees the players). In my opinion, believing him over someone else (or vice versa) without considering the other evaluator’s opinion is short-sighted, but discounting him because he never played the game is as well.
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I like Keith Law’s rankings. I hate how smug Keith Law is.
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That’s fair.
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The pitching option for A. Brown still abides.
They’ve got a little while to identify his hitting capability (mediocre contact rate, high K rate?); shifting him to the mound could come within a year. A good lefty pitcher wouldn’t hurt.
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None of our minor league outfielders can be looked at seriously as a future starter in the majors. Most probably won’t even get a major league at bat. This site should be renamed CrawfordNola.com since they are the only real future of this team currently in the system
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Quinn could be a very good Juan Pierre in his prime type of hitter and a plus CF. Sandberg has a chance to be quite good. Cozens has a lesser chance to be quite good. Tocci is a huge question mark. So is Pujols, although he has big upside. I think the rest are spare OF. Altherr and Dugan a small chance to be more than that.
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I think Quinn could develop 5-15 homerun power. He doesn’t seem completely devoid of it
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You don’t understand player development. The vast majority of ALL prospects fail. And yet players do develop and reach the bigs, and most of them were never hot big name prospects.
Five guys with a 20% chance of being starters means that the odds are you’ll get at least one. Statistically speaking, baseball player development is like investing in penny stocks in that way.
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I actually think CF is 1 of the stronger positions in the system at this point. I see Altherr and Quinn as legit prospects out there right now. In the lower minors Tocci is eventually gonna have to show something and its too early to have any judgement on Brown. That being said, I think 2 are legit and the 2 in the lower minors still have a chance. There’s not many spots in this system where u day that about a position.
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I think 3B and C are ahead of CF in terms of overall depth in the system, but CF might be third.
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With that bum Franco playing at third? Give me a break. He’s the worst!
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Riggs….nobody takes the bait.
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I agree with you on 3B being the deepest position. I’m not sure we have anything beyond possibly Grullon and then a lot of back-up level catchers and the perennially injured Joseph. I see SS as a little deeper than catcher, because Crawford is a surer thing than Grullon, Rollins can likely start for more years than Ruiz, and we have a ton of guys who are at least plus defensively at shortstop, including one of the new Latin American signees.
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Actually both Brito and Gamboa are rated high defensively by Sal A.
But then again, what LA ss is not rated high on the defensive scale!
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In addition to Grullon, I think Knapp and Joseph have starter potential. Lino and Astudillo are nice lottery tickets. But now that I look at it, probably behind CF (Quinn, Tocci, Altherr, and Sandberg could all be top 10).
SS is close. Crawford makes SS very top heavy, but there is less depth. I guess I’d say 3B > CF > C ~ SS.
Clearly those 4 positions are best in the system. LF/RF/1B/2B/SP are relatively bare.
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Tocci is 18. Would he have been a first round pick as a high school senior in the 2014 draft?
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I think probably a second rounder. I think he would be projected as 20 power and he isn’t as fast as the light-hitting speedster CFs who can put up a lot of SB. His D and his contact skills likely earn him a place somewhere in the top half of round 2.
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Quinn can’t hit! Altherr has the physical ability but hasn’t put up any shocking numbers yet. Too many people on this board overvalue our prospects. I get that you are excited, but what has Quinn or Tocci done yet that has you gushing over them?
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Stop it. Learn to understand baseball first, then stop calling into WIP.
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Been scouted properly by professionals who reported their findings. Also Quinn has hit a bunch of professional home runs from a small frame. Ask Larry Greene and Mitch Walding and (name a dozen other guys with BP power that doesn’t translate into games) if hitting pro home runs is easy.
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If Quinn couldn’t hit I assume his stats would be down
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lavin and pointer are the answers, but they get no respect pointer just hit his 6th home run hitting 250 with solid defense, power and speed. Lavin is tied for 1st in Organization in home runs, 1st in triples, 3rd in doubles, and tied for 1st in hits
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U cant be serious.
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He really can’t be. No room for the deranged on here.
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try watching them play for once, home run number 6 for pointer tonight only 22 years old, aver up to 250 with solid defense he has all the tools to play, just because he is not a high pick, don’t hold that against him
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Dude, you’re crazy.
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Pointer has been good in streaks the last couple years. He’s been able to keep a high walk rate, which is helpful. If he figures it out, I don’t think it’s crazy to think he can still make his way to the bigs. As a starting CF? Not so sure.
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Okay, taking at least the Pointer part of the comment seriously …
He doesn’t project as a major league center fielder. If he did, then … well, you still wouldn’t have a point, but he would then be an interesting guy. But a 22 year old in A+ – not old but not young for his level – needs to hit more than .250 with 6 HR in more than a half season to be a real prospect as a right fielder. Let’s comp him to the real center field prospect on his team:
(1) Their hitting performances are roughly similar, with a tiny edge to Pointer. Of course Quinn is coming off a serious injury.
(2) Quinn has a huge edge in base running value.
(3) Quinn DOES project as a center fielder.and a good one.
(4) Quinn is a year and 4 months younger.
That’s pretty much the difference between a good prospect and a marginal prospect.
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You are nice for even giving this argument any merit Larry, you can’t reason with crazy. I have seen them play, they are not the answer and if they are heaven help us
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And regarding the “not a high pick” comment, it was recognized when he signed that he had the talent of a much higher pick. That’s a large part of the reason he is still (unlike Lavin) regarded as a prospect, and properly so. The problem is that he hasn’t developed – oh, he has, as allentown said, meandered his way up the ladder, but without the breakout that a guy with his profile needs to be considered a serious prospect.
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Well put. Look at the real players, they for the most part put up some type of stand out numbers from the very beginning. Even high school drafts. Not creep thru the lower levels. Since when did hitting .250 as a career make you a future big leaguer? Last I’m going to speak on this ridiculousness
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Must be a relative
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Lavin is an older player and there is a reason that Pointer is meandering his way up through the organization. I see Lavin as an organizational guy who may get occasional call-ups from AAA later in his career and Pointer as a fringe prospect who probably comes in at about position 40 in our weak farm system. Pointer is looking a bit better at the moment, but I don’t think anyone had him in their top 30 coming into this season.
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I am starting to believe in Lavin.
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me too Look at Lavin s total numbers from both Clearwater and reading combined maybe the best in ORG top 3 in hits doubles, triples, and home runs
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Omg. Simply a reflection of an underachieving system, please stop. An undersized outfielder with no measurable tools other than what you perceive to be the bat wont. Be anything more than an extra guy, tops. Like I said before, there is a relative lurking
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I think OF as a place of weakness across the system, especially cf. I fully expect our upcoming trades to attempt to address cf.
There is always the chance alther develops, but I cannot see it right now.
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I think CF is actually a bit stronger than the corner OF in our minors. I can’t disagree that OF in general is a weakness, especially in the upper minors. I guess the reaction to your comment depends almost entirely on what one thinks of Quinn and to a lesser extent Tocci.
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Corner OF is a bigger weakness, as is arguably second base. First base also, though I can’t really see the team trying to address that in trades this season.
Part of this comes down to how you evaluate Quinn. I think a lot of people are missing the boat on just how good a prospect he is. Comps to Revere are silly; he projects to be better almost across the board, except for contact ability.
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doh, I should have read allentown’s comment first. For all he and I argue, we really agree more often than not.
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http://mobile.philly.com/blogs/?wss=/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/&id=265615351
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Up date for international signing in above link. Chase Harris 13th rd this yr cf and T romp . Revere and Quinn same fast small with little pop.both might be better 2nd base man. I still like a guy who can hit 300 and steal 50 bases.
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The magic .300 yardstick isn’t really significant for a guy who can walk a lot, although I admit it is very difficult for a guy with zilch power to walk much. Tocci seems to have zilch power, but it looks like Quinn may be a bit better than that. I think more power than Revere. Admittedly, with no power and minuscule walk rate, Revere does need to hit .300.
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All signings are 16 yrs old he won’t be around that long.
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Huh? Don’t even know what this means.
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The Phillies like quantity in Latin America. Sign a bunch for the same price that you’d pay for one high profile guy and hope that you stumble onto a Franco or a Grullon.
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Encarnacion was a high profile guy.
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Or a Gregory Polanco type player!
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Actually, Grullon was a fairly high profile guy.
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True – something like $550k and ranked in the middle of BA’s Top 30 that year, IIRC. Same with Pujols. The point may stand though – they could have had a $1M plus guy instead of those two, and that $1m plus guy could be sitting in GCL right now with Pujols trying to figure it out, and we got Grullon who’s seemingly excelling.
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Does Tocci repeat Lakewood again next year?
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Yes…but only after he puts on 15 lbs of weight along with weight training.
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I don’t think that will happen.
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I wonder if it might not be worth Tocci’s while to garner one PED suspension. He should be moved to CLW next season and it’s not as if he has the stamina to play a full CLW season anyway. That might be the only way he adds 15 pounds. I don’t buy that Galvis’s PED intake was accidental or that his strength gain came solely from an unusual training program. It’s cheating, but it’s cheating with the knowledge that you’re willing to accept the prescribed penalty. For some of these really frail guys, there may not be much alternative if they are determined to move their career forward. I hate PEDs and am not really advocating this, more musing what might make sense to a guy in Tocci’s position and his agent.
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probably he cant hit and has no power really getting tired of hearing how young he is
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Among the “Top 10” of Int’l FAs, there are 3 OFers and 3 Pitchers.
Could we grab one of each…in addition to the non-top ten listed SSs already signed?
Too much to hope foR?
When does BIG TV/CABLE money kick in?
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We have enough money left in our pool for perhaps one top 10 guy. I think if we were getting him it would already be done. The Phillies tend to sign the guy they really want early. This is not the year to bust our bonus pool. I believe the new media deal kicks in in 2016.
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One problem is this … with a couple of teams poised to go way above their pool, it’s hard for the other teams to wisely spend their full pool amounts. Just not enough high bonus worthy prospects once the few higher spending teams are done signing their guys.
And of course some people will react to this by saying how cheap the Phillies are. And I get that, but don’t agree. Set aside the facts that most teams are sticking to the bonus pools, and the teams that aren’t will pay the price in future years under the current rules. It IS probably true that the over pool teams are doing the smart thing from a selfish perspective.
But the story here isn’t cheapness. It’s about cartel behavior and some teams “cheating.” not in the literal sense but in the sense that they are defecting from the “agreement.” Read up on cartels. One can certainly argue that the Phillies should be one of the defectors, but their refusal to do so should not be understood as cheapness, but a desire to support the cartel.
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Larry, what the Yankees and other teams is blatantly wrong and there should be a greater penalty than not being able to sign any Latin American players for two years. Perhaps MLB can force a forfeiture of a high pick in the College/High School draft.
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Just a one round, one pick per team, draft would make matters more fair.
All the remaining undrafted can sign as free agents as they do now.
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I believe the actual penalty is less than that. I think it is only a one year penalty and that penalty is not a prohibition of signing international players, simply a limit of maximum single bonus to I think $300K (although it might be $500K).
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I see it’s a two year penalty period, but you can still hand out bonuses as large as $300K during those years.
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I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you – I’m just trying to describe what’s happening. IMO they will change the rules, When the cartel is legal (hello anti-trust exemption) it is easier to deal with defectors by simply changing the rules. You don’t need to rely upon a secret, unenforceable agreement..
The distinction between being “cheap” and supporting the cartel (“supporting the commisioner”) is as follows: the people making the “cheap” argument assume that the owners are unaware that amateur talent is underpriced, and hope that they become aware of that and change their behavior. But in fact the ownership is likely well aware of that, and instead is engaing in understandable cartel behavior with the other owners. And there is no reason to think that that is going to change.
And that’s okay. Of course in hindsight the organization would have been better off if they had been more ready to offer big bonuses before the rule changes. But (a) many teams have been successful with a similar attitude towards amateur talent, and (b) increasingly the playing field is level.
Which sadly doesn’t negate the fact that the organization suffers from a number of other, more serious, problems.
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I also think that people on both sides of the argument are letting their beliefs about the morality of the practices influence their beliefs about the wisdom of the practices.
One point to consider here is competative balance: IMO that (as opposed to cost savings on a league wide basis) is the main reason for the changes in how amateur talent is allocated. And it is absolutely in the collective interests of the owners – AND the fans and players – for there to be a certain amount of competitive balance. One can certainly dispute where the line should be drawn – TOO MUCH balance is also problematic – but a totally free talent market would quite literally destroy the game.
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Balance benefits the small-market owners, their fans, and the players who happen to be on those teams. In general, unless revenue sharing is massive, it harms the players as a group by depressing wages. It may reduce overall baseball TV revenue, because playoffs not dominated by the large market teams don’t get as large an audience.
One error you make in your analysis is your assertion above that the members of the cartel (really legal monopoly) can change the rules to maximally benefit themselves. They can’t do that, even as a legal monopoly. They tried to do that secretly in the past, were caught, and were punished for it. To change any of these rules, they require the concurrence of the Players Association. To be caught enforcing in-house rules, written or otherwise, which haven’t been formally accepted by the Players Association is to invite another lawsuit, further punishment, and possibly congressional action to limit their legal anti-trust protection.
There will be a hard cap and/or an international draft only when the Players Association agrees to allow it.
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Balance, up to a certain point, helps all parties (though small markets more). In terms of the game’s long term health, the game (and fans) benefit when most teams have a chance to win (even if an outside chance) every year, and when the WS is not dominated by the same 5 or 6 big market teams.
Now, one can argue that we don’t need more balance, or even quite as much as we have, in order to achieve that goal. But clearly most of the owners disagree with that. As do I. And, while corrolation does not equal causation, certainly the fact that the game has enjoyed record attendance and record television contracts at the same time that parity is high is at least some evidence that the Commisioner’s emphaisis on competative balance is correct.
But right or wrong, for puroposes of our current discussion the relevant fact is that the Phillies current ownership appears to share that beleif.
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It’s not cheating and it’s a monopoly, not a cartel. The rules are what they were specifically negotiated to be, not what some teams might prefer had been agreed. The rules could have been written as a specific hard cap. They weren’t. Thus, it is not cheating to bust the pool and pay the prescribed penalty. That is actually playing by the rules, as they are written. Cheating would be handing a player’s agent $1 million under the table and claiming you only paid the player a $500K bonus and are thus under the cap. It could be argued that those who follow the exemptions built into the rules are following the truer spirit of the law. The absolute terms were agreed by the owners but also by the players’ association. The exemption/penalty is there for a reason. This is an extension of the old period, when there were no written rules, but the Phillies owners chose to treat the Commissioner’s preference and really quasi-illegal restraint of trade suggestions, as a gentleman’s agreement having the force of law. I think it is fair to call the Phillies past international spending pattern cheap. They have clearly been unwilling to pay what has become the market price and preferred to follow the commissioner’s collusive plan which, in the absence of players’ association agreement, really is truly unfair and possibly illegal.
I agree for tactical/strategic reasons that the Phillies should not bust their bonus pool while they have among the largest pools and the penalty is not worth it.
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But allentown, see above why the distinction matter. Illegal or not, unwise or not, the motive here is CLEARLY to support the cartel (and you’re wrong on the terminology, not that that matters much), not to “save money” (except in the limited sense that one of the goals of the caretel is for the league as a whole to keep amateur spending down). I just don’t see the point on butting heads against that particular wall, when it’s clear that the behavior, misguided or not, is rational and not likely to change. AND increrasingly irrelevant given the rule changes.
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larry is it fair that the florida marlins don’t even try. They spend little money and get paid for small market? why are they in the league, there owner is cheating to make the baseball league pay him to operate. Why do you have a team in florida when all they do is wait for there league money, and not try to win. What a disgrace bill giles was to get the league to pay him as a small market before, he cheated he could have spent money to field a better product, but was oh we got a bad city deal, so lets take the league money, what a joke. What he was saying was we are 5 cheap owners and wont try , we don’t want to spend too much and take a chance we don’t win, so we will take the leagues money and wait so there is no risk , joke what a joke
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However much you think the Marlins try to win, the fact is that they have a better team than we do. A lot of teams are spending a lot less than the Phillies and have better teams, which will win a lot more games than we do. The Phillies have been incredibly stupid in how they spend their money and talent resources. We aren’t the only high budget team to have a bad record for a season, but we are now into our third year of doing so, with next year unlikely to be any better. Part of this is the result of undervaluing the draft and international amateur talent pool. Whether one calls this a cheap approach to young talent or not, and clearly one goal of ownership has been to support Selig, but the bottom line is that the Giles ownership team has always undervalued the farm and amateur talent. I think that Selig could be encouraging owners to spend more for amateur player acquisition and our owners would rebel. They have a firm pecking order in their minds. They don’t like paying as much as they have to for major league talent, but see that as at least buying productive resources. They just don’t believe than an unproven kid should get a big pile of their $ until he has proven himself. They also don’t think a Latin American kid is worth as much as an American kid of the same level of talent. Part of that is that Latin America used to be where you went for ‘cheap’ talent and that thought is still ingrained in their minds, part of it is almost certainly ethnic bias.
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” A lot of teams are spending a lot less than the Phillies and have better teams, which will win a lot more games than we do. The Phillies have been incredibly stupid in how they spend their money and talent resources.”
Yes, exactly true. And IMO much more pruductive to focus on this (and hope for a change) than railing at the organization for following the commisioner’s efforts to limit amateur compensation.
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Larry I hope your joking, if your really serious. its nuts. You do what you have to win. who cares if its bad behavior, this is why the Yankees have 27 titles, you are I would imagine a company man and like the Phillies approach to the draft, in not going over when, the commissioner said he wants. team not to go crazy for prospects. I cant believe anyone on here buys larry arguments, it is cheapness in a sense. The Phillies for years were cheap in this market, and owe yes owe us the best team possible, if they spend 15 million in the latin market and payed the tax, and hit on one kid like the pirates. its worth it that kid is a stud. but I am really thinking how can anyone, who loves this team make a silly argument that its cartel behavior. I am so amaze you said this, you support the commissioner like the Phillies have in the draft, and wind up with the worst farm system in baseball, we only get a thrill until a ball because after that our prospects get expose and stink, look at triple a pitchers, those guys at lhv belong in softball leagues. Anyone that buys larry nonsense should get a job with the Phillies.
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First, it really is not a cartel. A cartel is basically a group of totally independent entities in a market, which come together illegally to set rules which benefit them by blocking the free functioning of the market, such as by price-fixing, agreeing to which concerns will bid on which proposals, agreeing not to steal each others’ employees, agreeing to pay no more than X for a specific raw material, or to charge no less than Y for the finished product. In years past and in some countries today, cartels have been treated as quasi-legal. In the US, if caught, you face restraint of trade prosecution. Baseball, on the other hand, is just about the only example in the United States of an unregulated monopoly, which has been specifically sanctioned by Congress. It is more one franchised entity than the independent entities in a cartel.
Baseball is now subject to the requirement that it abide by the terms of its collective bargaining agreement with the players and that it follow US labor law. The union won when it challenged the owners’ collusive manipulation of the free agent market. It was actually our own Bill Giles who took and kept the notes of the meeting which allowed the players to prevail. It is why Parrish was granted FA after the first year of his contract with the Phillies, that contract having been deemed negotiated unfairly under collusive agreement among the owners to limit wages.
I think the Selig ‘suggestions’ were at least close to being equally illegal, as any limits on amateur bonuses needed to be agreed by the Players’ Association, as the new rules have been. That also is why what the Yankees are doing isn’t cheating. They are taking advantage of an exception which presumably a combination of the Players Association, supported by many of the big market clubs, demanded in order to agree to the cap system. It is a bit of the free market preserved by way of exemption.
I disagree with Larry’s assertion that the Phillies realize what an under-market bargain the draft and international amateur bonus system is. I admit, it is hard to tell when RAJ is saying what he thinks, what they owners think, or simply blowing smoke to confuse the media. But… RAJ has on many occasions said that he doesn’t think the amateurs are worth the prevailing bonuses. I think he believes this, as it fits perfectly with his willingness to throw away draft picks. I think he feels compelled for PR reasons to spend to the cap, but resents having to allocate that much money to amateur bonuses. We lost a #1 for Paps and I doubt Boston would actually have made a qualifying offer to him. It certainly was worth waiting a week to find out. I doubt a lot of teams were lined up to pay Paps what we gave him. This may be the owner thinking, rather than RAJ’s, since pre-RAJ we happily surrendered our 1st and 2nd round picks to sign Mesa and Cormier, prior to the date for offering arb. It is doubtful arb would have been offered to either and neither was worth the lost draft pick in addition to the mucho dinero.
Again, I must end with the repeated thought that it would not be worth the Phillies effort to break their bonus pool this year. The Yankees won’t have a big pool next year in any case. Doubtless the Phillies have a top 5 pool. Just as breaking slot in the draft made most sense when you had lost your number one pick, breaking the international pool makes sense only if you expect to have a small pool in the following year.
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Allentown,
(1) Whether the collusive behavior is violative of the collective bargaining agreement is not something I have an opinion about (it would require a more detailed knowledge of the terms of that contract than I have). I would note that there is at least potentially a large difference between collusion oin the free agent market (which was clearly a contractual violation) and collusion with regard to signing amateur talent. But at the end of the day, that’s unrelated to my argument.
(2) The terminology is also not really relevant to my argument. But, while neither “monopoly” or “cartel” perfectly describes the situation, “cartel” better describes it. The structure is closer to a group of independant entities than a single entity. Of course there are in fact elements of both.
(3) Obviously we’re necesarily speculating to some extent regarding the ownership’s knowledge of the value of amatuer talent. There is some reason to beleive that they don’t fully realize just how much better a value amateur talent is. But:
(a) The level of stupidity that would be required for the ownership to really believe that amateur talent is a worse value than free agent talent is SO high that is beggars belief that adult, educated businessmen could really beleive it. It would be a less rational belief than beliwving that the earth is flat.
(b) If we are to believe that adult, sane businesmen are that stupid – flat earth beleivers stupid – then we would need a fairly high level of evidence to believe that. No such evidence has been advanced by you – nor does such evidence exist. All you give us is vague references to comments by Amaro and past actions by the organization which undervalued draft picks. But none of that supports such an extreme interpretation. It’s one thing to argue (credibly) that the organization undervalues amateur talent. It’s quite another to make the frankly absurd argument that they don’t think that amateur talent is worth the absurdly low price thatr teams pay for it.
The best analogy I can come up with … say you’re in the market for a new car, and you make the mistake of turning down a good value – say, not buying a car that is worth $15,000.00 but is priced at $10,000.00. That doesn’t mean that you would be stupid enough to turn down the car if it were priced at $1,000.00!!
(4) You’re not really grasping my main argument. Like it or not, the Phillies’ behavior is best understood as supporting the cartel, or supporting the commissioner, or whatever terminology you want to use. Like it or not, it is (i) understandable, (ii) consistent with the behavior of most major league organizations, and (iii) highly unlikely to change.
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At the risk of beating this topic into the ground, I want to make a distinction to hopefully clarify what I realize is possibly a muddled distinction:
(1) Siging an expensive free agent at the cost of a first round pick can be a poor decision. Or not, depending upon individual circumstances.
(2) But that doesn’t mean that the team believes that, on a dollar for dollar basis, the FA signing is a better value. It is an apples to oranges comparision. By signing a FA for (say) 100 million dollars, you are not choosing to spend that money on free agency rather than amateur talent. Heck, there really isn’t any way to efficiently spend that much money on amateur talent. Rather, you’re giving up the opportunity to sign one particular player – the forfieted draft pick. And sometimes, especially for a team in contention, that will be a good choice. Sometimes it will be a bad choice. It doesn’t necessarily say anything about how you value amateur talent.
Now in fact I think it’s pretty clear that the Phillies do (somewhat) undervalue amateur talent. But it’s quite another thing to assert (as you have) that they under value it SO MUCH that they would rather not pay the (rather meager) price of obtaining such talent. Common sense (as well as actual behavior of the franchise suggests otherwise.
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Well, here’s the thing. It is not no evidence. It may be evidence that doesn’t fit your thinking or evidence that is insufficient to sway you, but it most certainly is evidence. Look at the draft picks lost by the Phillies. They deliberately wasted the second pick in the draft supposedly ‘for the good of baseball’ in picking J.D. Drew, not expecting to sign him and then blowing up the negotiations. It allows diverting the cash from what at the time would have been a still quite expensive bonus, had they just done the sensible thing and drafted Glaus. They didn’t wait to see if arb would be offered and lost their #1 and #2 to sign Cormier and Mesa. They rushed to sign Papelbon, probably needlessly forfeiting a #1. Likely, the saved bonus $ were what helped balance the budget on the FA signings.
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You do understand the Phillies and all teams are businesses not your personal piggybank?
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It doesn’t matter when the money officially arrives. They can always borrow against future cash flow if they see a good spending opportunity now. In fact that’s optimal if there are diminishing returns to spending money in a given year due to limited available talent.
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And they basically did this with the Thome contract prior to receiving the new revenue from CBP.
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2016 Cozens, Quinn, Ruf , All went yard Tromp and Sandberg 2 -4 both stole a base. Dsl pitcher threw a compete game 3 hitter.
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Cable money 2016
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We need to send you to balls anonymous so can take care of your fixation on Amaro ‘ s balls. FYI Villar was sent down by the Astros.
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Roster management is suspect. Why hasn’t Pettibone been moved to the 60 day DL yet? This would clear up room for Castro instead of bringing up Altherr.
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Because he’s on the Minor League DL and there is no 60-day option. He would need to be promoted then re-DL’d to open his spot. Kinda sticky but might need to be done at some point. P’bone would then get ML service time, etc.
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rocco….Phillies spent total of $1.65M approx on Gamboa, Brito, and Nunez…that leaves them about half-way to their allocation.
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wrong thread.
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lmao
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Romus, I saw more detail on Gamboa and Brito but do you have any information on Nunez? Thanks in advance.
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Sorry philabalt…nada on Nunez..asked Ryan Lawrence. and he even can’t get anything yet and Ryan is pretty good and thorough in retrieving data
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regarding castro as a prospect; i have seen him play a number of times at aa and in the spring. he is a well rounded player. played excellent left field and maybe could be satisfactory in center. the phillies played him there several times in spring training. strong arm and the best baserunner on the reading team. unfortunately the hit and power tools look questionable at aaa. i have seen a comment recently that he was having a better approach at the plate this year which suggests progress. i question if he will ever be more than a aaaa or 5th outfielder based on what i have seen. of course i’m not a scout but have been watching baseball for over 70 years so take this evaluation for what’s it’s worth.
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Looks like you guys picked the wrong week to quit smoking crack. (Airplane)
Ben’s actually taken off the last 7 games. Lets pray it continues and makes him descent trade bait.
Player Gms AB R H HR RBI BB K BA OBA Slug% OPS
Ben Revere 7 33 2 15 0 0 1 2 0.455 0.471 0.545 1.016
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Your rationale is, “To those who say “Well, you can’t just fill out your lineup card with guys hitting 30 homers”, just take a look at the 2008 squad. You had power in Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, and Werth atop that lineup”?
Right. Good job letting hindsight lead your logic… along with two MVP’s (one being a potential HOF’er), another guy who – if not for being constantly injured – would not only be an MVP & HOFer (with higher WAR than either of said MVP’s), and the luck of Gillick taking a flyer on two players he got extremely lucky on that ended up earning gold gloves and over $100M. This is your argument for how CF’s, with power mind you, are easily acquired?
Ya might want to think this all over.
If my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle.
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Also: offense is down dramatically around the league, particularly power numbers. Take a look at the 2014 HR leaders:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/homeruns
Forget 5 guys with 30 homers. I don’t see any team that projects to have even 3 guys with 30 homers. Drop the threshold down to 25 homers, and I see one team–Oakland–that has three guys at that power level (Donaldson, Moss, Cespedes).
So the idea that any GM, however talented, would be able to put together a lineup with those kind of power numbers is absurd. The game has gotten lower-scoring, which makes guys like Revere valuable–it’s back to the 1980s, where cleanup hitters are guys with 25-30 homers and speed on the basepaths is valuable. It also reinforces why someone like Marlon Byrd should have some value on the trade market–he projects to hit around as many homers as Justin Upton and Adam Jones.
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I don’t want to leave everyone hanging on the whole Altherr thing.
I picked Quinn because of the move position-wise, Tocci for the youth, Brown for the recent drafted-ness, and Castro for being in AAA and being close.
I could have talked about Altherr, Pointer, Lavin, etc. and this would have dragged on forever talking about every single outfielder. I will take these comments as a sign that I should talk about Altherr more in-depth though, so thanks for that.
My thoughts on not including him here:
I just want to see him do it more often. It’s awesome that he had the June he had, but we’re talking about a guy who had a .628 OPS in April and .505 in May. .505! Obviously the month of June was great, and I want to see him do it again, but I am probably not as high on him as some here are, which is to be expected.
If it was a fluke month or something in a long string of .850-month OPSes in the minors, I’d feel differently. But the way he started the year was disturbing. Well, he gets his first ML start tonight. We shall see what happens.
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The guy had surgery on a broken bone in his wrist in December, so not only did he have no off-season workout he didn’t swing the bat till last week of march. I would say his May was his spring training and lets see what he does now. Don’t be a hater..
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Sandberg and Stovall went yard Alastre is still hitting 350 .I think Sal should be GM with the talent he finds with what he has to work with at least he has an eye for talent.take a look at DSL and VSL leagues. I still like Dugan for a corner OF. I think plus Samuel Hiciano is our best chance .
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Am i missing something or does Quinn have a .265 average with 2 home runs? I keep reading about his power from these posters who think out minor leagues are stocked with future starters, but they see what they want to see in spite
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While Revere is not the optimal choice in CF he has done a fine job. There are much worse CF’s out there.
Expecting power out of the leadoff spot is an incorrect way to value the position. You want a guy that can get on base with speed forcing pitchers to pitch to your power hitters in the 3 or 4 spots.
I don’t think Quinn gets above AA. He may not even get to AA.
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One final point is that you are playing Revere $1.95 million. There are far worse problems in terms of performance and pay on the roster.
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https://m.numberfire.com/mlb/news/2557/what-can-we-expect-from-july-2nd-international-prospects
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I hope that helps it’s hard to tell what a 16 yr can do .
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