General Discussion – Week of 6-16-2014 – I Dislike The Braves Edition

Weekly Discussion

Yeah, not a huge fan of The Braves. And I’m posting this on a Tuesday instead of a Thursday this week. Not too bad.

Also, my piece about the Lakewood position players went up this morning at Crashburn Alley. Give it a read, if you like.

Discuss.

141 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 6-16-2014 – I Dislike The Braves Edition”

    1. Seems everything sucks about Atlanta…..but not the babes…they are hot!
      They need more camera shots into the stands.

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  4. Irony. If you tune into sports talk or talk to folks who primarily listen to sports talk, there’s something really funny going on right now. People are decrying the lack of a farm system. When Altherr was called up yesterday, there were calls about how the Phillies don’t have a any true blue chippers in the minors and they are pissed about it. Of course, these are the same folks who at the time of the Pence trade said “who cares? they are prospects! We are trying to win a WS!” Well, someone had to pay the piper and the Phillies are paying for it in 2014. This doesn’t excuse Phillies management who didn’t look at the larger picture in 2011, just an observation as to the lack of knowledge a large portion of the fanbase seems to employ.

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    1. I don’t think anybody who actually knows what they are talking about was in favor of what we gave up for Pence. In fact, most of us were making the point that Dom Brown was ready and would offer similar production to what Pence could do.

      I am fine with giving up A prospect to get a guy to help for the stretch run, but the package they gave away was ridiculous, and that is not revisionist history, that was the case from the start.

      If they gave Singleton for Pence, it would suck to see how good Singleton became, but honestly, whatever, they took a shot. The fact that it’s Singleton AND a power arm 3 starter AND Santana is just absurd.

      FWIW, saying that what people are/were saying on talk radio isnt correct is not exactly anything new or surprising

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      1. Again – I was not addressing fans who understood the value at the time. I was speaking more to the irony of the nature of how people are upset that there are no bigtime prospects breaking through and at the time decrying the value of said prospects.

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        1. Thats just a dumb comment…so you know for sure that the callers who said no big deal to dealing prospects are the EXACT same callers who now say we do.t have any blue chippers or were you just in a condescending mood?

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          1. I generalized. And I know for FACT, if you want me to get into specifics, family and friends who fall into the category I described above. So it is not a dumb comment because I actually have evidence to support what I’m saying.

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            1. Still dumb…ill generalize for an example…people on this site said Prospect A was cant miss now people say Prospect A will never make it…your irony for sports radio can be applied to this site, McDonalds, Starbucks, anything….you just wanted to bash sports radio or be an elitist or grind an axe or whatever..i listen to sports talk radio (never called) and i come here….whats that say about me…personally i have no problem but every so often somebody complains about sports radio because of dumb comments( there are plenty…but i also realize that people use sprts radio to vent) you must read comments here with blinders on…because there hypocritical comments, dumb comments , funny comments, opinionated comments…like i said nothing personal just ru bed me wrong way

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          2. So true.

            I’ve been listening to the sports radio call in shows for weeks and all the people who are ripping Ruben Amaro are the exact same people (not just callers – the hosts too – especially them) who said that Amaro HAD to make those trades. What a bunch of morons.

            It made me think of an old saying that I’ve tailored for the circumstances ” you can’t have your prospects and trade them too.”

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      2. It is only absurd because of the outcome. Pence wasn’t extended and ended up only giving us a year of service, with essentially no return upon departure.

        A Pence extension or a worthy package when traded would have made this trade fine. It isn’t the players we gave up that makes it bad, it’s that we never got a worthy return on investment.

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        1. They got a decent package for Pence but it turned sour when Joseph got concussions. Also, Rosin may still turn into a serviceable reliever. So it’s far from a done deal how bad the return for Pence was. Injuries are part of the game. Look at Jason Knapp for Cleveland. He was the big piece in the Cliff Lee deal and netted them nothing, so it looks bad afterwards, but he was a nice prospect for a 1 1/2 year rental.

          Also Pence did give the Phils 3.5 fWAR, which offsets some of the value when you’re figuring the whole thing out. Of course, the Astros guys could surpass that before this year’s out.

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    2. I agree that the rebuilding should have started in ’11. An infusion of 5 or 6 big time prospects would make this farm system at least above average

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        1. Yes, very true, but most of us were wondering where the replacements were going to come from as the team aged. You can’t trade all the prospects in sight every year and expect that, when the team ages, somebody will be there to replace them. The lack of foresight in planning this team’s future was stunning.

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    3. The lack of judgement on the Phillies part is what people imo are mad about. In a trade its fair market, Pence wasn’t a guy who should have commanded that much, lack of knowledge and poker face by Phillies, hurt them.

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      1. No. You are absolutely wrong. People were clamouring for Pence at the time and decrying the value of prospects.

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        1. People who frequent this site weren’t clamoring for Pence. Maybe the majority of Phillies fans were at the time, but even those people are mostly against it in hindsight.

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        2. I’m not endorsing the hypocracy claim above, but in fact at the time the deal was pretty popular on the site – though it was recognized that the cost was high, and opinion turned a bit when the PTBNL was announced. PP in particular, at that time still running the site, was a vociforius supporter.

          I was not the only voice opposing the deal (though I was the loudest voice), but we opponents were in the minority.

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            1. Yes, strongly. It set the tone for the ensuing discussion.

              One of the points we disagreed on was how to value Pence as a hitter – on a career basis or on his first half performance. PP argued the latter, I argued the former. Ironically, while I was “right” if we look at the entirety of his time with the Phillies (and right in terms of best estimators of future production), Pence did in a sense vindicate PP in the short term – his second half offensive production was indeed very good (though BABIP driven). He regressed in 2012 to well below his career norms.

              His 2013-2014 offensive production so far is above his career norms. Pretty much he has equalled (or very slightly exceeded) his prior raw numbers, but in a lower scoring context (both in terms of league norms and his home park).

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          2. Not revisionist history, this is exactly correct. You panned the deal most loudly and, as it turns out, most accurately.

            I recall that was an apologist for the deal, not liking the package (not knowing of Santana of course), but preaching that it should be okay because they were covered. Boy, oh boy, was I wrong.

            Often, the best deals are the ones that are not made. I often think how this team’s fortunes could have turned dramatically had they not traded Lee the second time and had they signed Jayson Werth (who I really cannot stand personally, but who would have been good).

            I think Ruben wouldn’t know a productive offensive player if one bopped him over the head. I mean, God he’s clueless about offense – much worse that most arm-chair GMs.

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            1. You are extremely knowledgeable (sp?) Catch, but I am surprised that you think, even in hindsight, that the Phils should have signed Werth. I mean it was bad luck that the Nationals signed him instead since they had a protected 1st rounder, but still at worst I’d think the jury would be still out on that decision and at best… it was a good financial decision. OK what can I say about the selection of Larry Green as the 1st round pick, but didn’t they also end up with Quinn as compensation for Werth?

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            3. I’m just connecting the dots here.

              Werth ended up being $126 million, but if the Phillies had been a little more aggressive early in the year, it probably would have been something like 5 years, $ 85 million, with a sixth option year

              It would have been a rich contract to be sure, but all of the nonsense with the trades never would have occurred. Singleton would have been coming up, Cosart would have been in the rotation and Santana would be in AAA. That’s why I would have wanted that, not because Werth is that great (although, frankly, he’s probably worth about the $17 million or so he is being paid a year. He also provides very good line-up balance. Something they missed for years (except when Pence was here) and only sort of have now with Byrd.

              So I’m not missing Werth so much as his departure caused us to trade the prospects who would have been the core of a brighter future.

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          3. I remember you were the loudest voice against the trade.
            And were proved right in the long run
            I still think Charlie Manuel wanted Pence vs playing Dom Brown and talked Ruben into the deal, but water under the bridge now.

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          4. I freaked out when the PTBNL was announced. I think most of us thought “they have given up so much already, how on earth can this be true?”

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          5. Yes, Larry. You were the loudest against by a fair amount. I recall believing you were being unreasonable. I thought it was a lot to give up, but I understood the reasoning for the decision.

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            1. Well I guess I almost always “understand the reasoning” – I’ve said in other contexts that, if you don’t understand the reasoning, you’re probably missing something important. But sometimes the reasoning isn’t very good.

              In essence, it was the mentality that hopeful fans around here like to ascribe to our potential trade partners …. a tiny increase in the chances of a championship in year one is worth a massive discrepancy in value. It’s an attitude that organizations are increasingly smart enough to avoid. And it was never an attitude that had anywhere near universal adherence.

              Add to that a smidgen* of mis-evaluation of Pence’s value, and there you have it.

              *I say smidgen because, 2012 aside, Pence HAS been more valuable since the trade than he was before the trade. Still not the star that many thought we were getting, but somewhat better than we thought. Of course “2012 aside” does a lot of the work in that sentence.

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        3. Yes people were but plenty of people were also against the number and quality of them that was given in exchange for Pence, or at least tentatively cautious and atleast somewhat excited the Phillies landed a great player with a few years of control, but your comment sounds like everybody who wanted Pence thought that prospects were worthless, which is completely not true I wanted Pence but thought it was an overpay from the beginning.

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          1. I don’t disagree, but you are attributing an opinion to me that was absent from my comment – I’m not the same person who posted above. Riggs was.

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            2. Actually not your fault. Maybe even mine – but really neither of us, as the nested comment system being used often makes it unclear who is responding to whom.

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            1. I would say it was more like oh wow that is a lot to give up but I wanna stay positive because the Phillies were exciting to watch, to like dam that might have been to much after Santana was accidentally throw in and further depleted the farm

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            2. In 2011, Howard was not going anywhere, so Singleton, while everyone agreed was a really good prospect, did not have a spot through 2016. Cosart was thought, by some, to be a future closer. The Santana addition as PTNBL was pretty well panned. And, had that team won a WS, the Pence addition would have been worth it. I disagree with trading him when they did, and what we got for him was well short of value.

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    4. Are you sure it wasnt different people saying different things at different times and because of that there are always multiple opinions about the direction the club should be taking and what is valuable and what is not

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    5. This is the thing about fandom. When there is a chance to go all-in and sacrifice the future, to the tune of several awful seasons to pay for the slightly better odds in the all-in year, a huge number of fans will clamor for the all-in. They want the second WC to establish total dominance over their friends who are fans of other teams; they want the experience of the WC today, they think after years of suffering they are owed a second championship, regardless of cost. The media, manager, and players will all happily form the chorus. These same fans, whether or not the all-in sellout of the future produces a 2nd WC will abandon the team after its second losing season, because they only want to associate with a winner. They will not stay with the team through multiple thin years, buoyed by the memory of the 2 WC in the current run. That becomes history and they are concerned with the present. That is why the Phillies have seen a big drop in attendance. There are a lot of band-wagon fans. The team is now getting back down to its core fandom.

      This is why the GM has to be the adult in the room. The fans, manager, and players will always want whatever may possibly increase the current year win total, regardless of future cost. Somebody has to be the adult in the room and look out for the long-term health of the organization. RAJ didn’t fulfill that duty, or the owners didn’t. The Pence deal was foolish. The playoffs are a crapshoot. If you have great starters, you’ve got the best odds in the crapshoot. If you’re a 100-win team, you’ve got doubly good odds. Adding Pence was not needed to reach post-season and did not significantly improve our odds, once we got there.

      The GM should focus on a strategic plan to be a serious contender year-in and year-out, that is a team that on paper is about a 90-win team. Keep doing that and you’ll get some WC.

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      1. I disagree with part of this post, because you imply that “true” fans dont bail on the team when they lose. I don’t necessarily think thats true. Look a trip to the ballpark, when you add up ticket cost, price of concessions, gas, parking etc…its not a cheap day. When a team puts a product on the field as boring and unwatchable as the guys they have now, I don’t think any fans should be faulted for not jumping at the chance to go see them.

        This is not like football. The Eagles could go 0-16 but still sell out all 8 games at home because there are only 8. But the Phillies are not going to sell out 81 times with a crappy team on the field. Its like let’s say your favorite actor was Robert De Niro, and through the 80s it was a given that when he came out with a movie, you went. Then he started taking crap roles, and I bet you werent paying for tickets and popcorn to go see The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle.

        The product has to be attractive. Not wanting to go see a team you know sucks, and not even in the fun way but in the torturous, hopeless way, does not make you a bandwagon fan. I think most fans still make it a point to go to 3 or 4 games a year, because baseball is great and being at the ballpark and tailgating and all is a fun time. It’s just that nobody is rushing to be there as much as possible, and when the team plays the way that they have been, they shoudln’t be faulted for that.

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        1. aside from the part about the fans, i agree completely with your post though, i was more venting about the concept that they talk about on the radio a lot and that you kind of alluded to that the phillies fans are bandwagon fans because they don’t go to the park anymore

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          1. Bandwagon is a bad term, because it is pejorative. Nonetheless, the just past Phillies good streak more than doubled their ‘fan base’ from the hard core fan base that stuck with them through the decades of thin. Yes, even these hardcore fans will reduce their stadium attendance in the bad times, but the Phillies truly did have half their 1998-2012 fan base as folk who weren’t previously fans and would not continue to be once the super winning stopped. We saw an influx of these new fans to message boards. I think the short-term nature of these new fans gave them the here-and-now mindset of wanting the team to go to the nth degree to get the absolute maximum chance to win it all right now and if they stink for a decade afterwards, who cares, because I won’t follow them then anyway.

            It’s not black and white. There were certainly a lot of fans willing to follow a basically .500 team with interesting players, others who would follow the team no matter how many games they won (hey, if we followed them through the 50s and 60s, that’s what we’re used to), and those fans who really needed a much better than .500 team to remain as fans.

            Anyway, as an organization, sales were maxed out in the good years of the run. Adding a Pence didn’t add an extra $. The pain down the road — now that is real money.

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  5. Not to dampen your enthusiasism for Trevor May but how many times has he repeated AA or AAA?

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  6. Trevor May has a real bright future as an EDM dj.

    As far as the Phillies this week are concerned; I just want to see Altherr get one start, thats all.

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  8. Well everyone, say what you want, but the young bullpen arms are finally coming through. This has the makings of one of the finest and deepest bullpens in baseball and, given the depth, there is zero reason the Phils should not trade Paps or Adams if they can and even if they think the team can somehow make a late season run. If Amaro has a taker for either guy – especially Paps – and doesn’t pull the trigger, then shame on him. Yet again.

    As for the BP, it was an absolute blast watching Giles in person on Father’s Day (I was behind home plate) – it reminds you that as much as you want to see the team win (the prime objective), as fans we are going for entertainment as much as anything. The worst sin this team has committed this year is the sin the Sixers have been guilty of for almost a decade – they are f’ing boring as hell.

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  9. Catch pls I love my sixers, I Just saw amaro gets a ringing endorsement from Montgomery, Great another twenty years until we might win again.

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    1. roccom…if Monty retires in another year or two, Ruben will more then likely move into his position as President. Then there will be a new GM.

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          1. I’d be very happy with Ed Wade as their GM. I’d like to see what he can do with an open wallet. He left the Astros after several losing seasons however he left their farm system stocked (just about all minor league/prospect publications have their system ranked in the top 5 which was prior to this years draft) and that’s talent throughout the system not just from their last 2 number 1 picks. He didn’t have money to spend in Houston either, just like he didn’t here . . . He left Philadelphia with a World Series caliber core and that was his doing.

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            1. Puhlease!!!! Ed Wade was awful – an unduly conservative overmatched company man. John Gonzalez once described him as a man who could drown face down in a bowl of Cheerios if left unatttended too long – pretty brutal, but you get the point. Congratulations to Ed for pulling off the Pence trade from an overzealous and foolish Ruben Amaro, but please don’t confuse with Ed being a good general manager. He was NOT a good general manager and, if they re-hire him, I’m going to take an extended vacation from Phillies baseball.

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            2. Catch- not sure why it won’t let me respond to your post below mine so here it is . . . You do realize that the Phillies team that was so dominate from 2007-2011 was built under Ed Wades watch right? The core that won the WS was developed under his watch. His last 3 years in Philly he won between 86-88 games and that was without a lot of financial support of ownership. Wade then buit a top 5 minor league system with the Astros. Wade would be a huge improvement from RAJ esp with ownership now opening their wallets. With this being said he wouldn’t be my 1st choice or 2nd or 3rd however I wouldn’t jump off of a bridge.

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            3. Eric, sorry, not good enough.

              First, characterizing Ed Wade as the man who “built” the 2007 to 2011 Phillies is an overstatement at best and an utter falsehood at worst. That team was “built” almost exclusively with draft picks selected by Mike Arbuckle, who was already in place when Wade became the Phillies GM – almost none of that team’s was attributable to any special quaility or ability of Ed Wade, with the exception of the Abreu trade (that was his doing even thought he wasn’t yet GM when it happened). Aside from that, Wade was, at best, a caretaker GM who never had the moxie to pull of the right moves to take the team from being an above .500 team to a playoff contender and when he tried to make moves – both little and large – they typically backfired. He was fired for good reason. Yes, he signed Thome, but it was no strategem – any idiot off the street would have been able to do that if management had given him the money as he was the premier bat available on the market and the Phillies had no first baseman at the time.

              As for Houston, aside from the Pence trade to the even more misguided Ruben Amaro (it was a good trade – what can I say), Wade, who was hired to turn the Astros around, oversaw a steady decline of the organization from being mediocre to being horrible – the Astros’ progressive win totals during the Wade administration were as follows 86, 74, 76, and 56. As for turning around the farm system, even though they had top picks, the year he left the Astros were ranked an embarrassing 26th in the MLB in their farm system. He left the team a stinking mess and the farm system an industry-wide embarassment. He was a terrible GM for the Astros – if you don’t believe me, just ask any Astros fan – I’m sure they were thrilled to see Lunow replace Wade.

              If you want this team to be mediocre or stink for a long time, we should hire Ed Wade again. What a freaking disaster that would be.

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            4. catch…Ed Wade assumed the general manager duties for Philadelphia in 1998, prior to that he was the asst GM for a number of years. So the core was drafted under his watch.
              But the Schilling and Rolen’s trades…well, they left a lot to be desired.
              He did, however, bring in Bobby A.

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    2. I can’t understand why people are so enthusiastic about the 76ers and so down on the Phillies. Roccom, the Sixers rebuild is not guaranteed as many teams have tried this approach and failed with even less watchable teams. As for Ruben, he helped make the owners 5 billion dollars with half in cash and 25% of Comcast Philadelphia

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  10. What about Reid Brignac? Is this a guy who is about to rise to the occasion ala Brandon Moss (certainly not 30 HRs a year, but in all other respects)? I’m thinking he needs a decent shot to prove he’s a very late bloomer and may be blooming right before our eyes. What happens when Cody Asche returns? I’m an Asche backer, but I’d hate for RB to lose his shot as a starter.

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      1. Actually, Brignac is the type of player that often blossoms in a second attempt at a major league career – he’s the type of player good organizations attempt to acquire while their stock is down. Baseball history and many current rosters are littered with examples of players who were high profile prospects, faultered in their first attempts at a big league career, but had their careers take off in their late 20s, often after a demotion or two to the minors. Examples include Brandon Moss, Jose Bautista, Encarnacion, Alex Gordon (had to be demoted before things “clicked” for him), Bill Robinson (classic late bloomer) and Jayson Werth (although his struggles were tied as much to an injury as anything else). Brignac was a very highly regarded prospect – a top 50 prospect in the minors for a few years – and had a few minor league seasons where he slugged a ton of home runs. He is incredibly versatile, playing second, short, and third, all fairly competently. As far as I’m concerned, Brignac can easily fill the role that the team originally hoped Galvis or Hernandez would man, can get frequent spot starts everywhere and can pinch hit. He’s quite a pick up and one of the silver linings of the season.

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    2. Once Asche returns, I hope Sanberg does what he said he would do and rest the veterans more. Utley, Rollins and especially Byrd are playing way to much. I like Brignac as a solid backup.

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  11. Larry post from the day the first Pence trade was made – Larry is an oracle – the comment bears repeating because he totally nailed it (and, no, I’m not being paid by Larry, I’ve never met him):

    Funny how the fact that the deal wasn’t quite as bad as the rumors mutes the criticism. But not for me. Horrible, horrible deal. Amaro must go. Worst GM in Philadelphia history – at least in my lifetime, and I’m 51 – and yes I am serious. And remember I’ve defended him in the past, embarrassingly enough.

    In essence, we are one win better this year because of the deal, probably no better next year than we would have been (Pence at 10 million will be worth his salary but no bargain; we could have purchased an equivelant player at that price). And then 10-15 years of watching Singleton and Cosart play for other teams as the Phillies sink into mediocrity. Singleton is about as close to a sure thing as any 19 year old in high A can be. Cosart carries more risk but is potentially an ace.

    Just a horrible, horrible deal. IMO it could be worse than the Sandberg deal when all the dust settles. RAJ must go.

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    1. I appreciate the support, though in retrospect, even having been proved right, I maybe should have been a little less strident.

      Amaro … you know, he seems like a great guy. He’s in over his head. In a sense he was born at the wrong time. The GM position has evolved, and the quality of the people holding those positions has improved. A lot. He does have strengths. Unfortunately position player evaluation does not appear to be one of them. And that’s a real problem.

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      2. Larry……I said this before, in reference to what you alluded to in that the ‘the GM position has evolved and the quality of the people holding those positions has improved ‘….I think the days of the former player holding GM positions is waning.
        The newer GMs….Epsteins, Cashmans, Collettis, Sabeans eta l…..non former payers, seem to be the trend.
        And with their abilities to dissect metric analysis to make sound decisions.
        That is why I can see Ruben , replacing Monty in a year or so and then hiring a metric-inclined GM.

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        1. I feel any gm, former player or not, first must surround himself with good scouts and player personal people. example, tom gamble with the eagles makes Howie look a lot better imo. Remember Watkins a Howie guy? last two drafts with Gamble much better. I want so bad for this team, to find some guys from giants and st Louis organization, teams who know how to draft players, not in just the first round, but later on and know when to let go, The cardinals letting pujious go, the best player in baseball at the time, or close to it, and still won, It was a move Montgomery force the Phillies not to make, according to reports. The thing that gets me is all the talk about the pence trade, who was right or wrong on here isn’t the question, The people who count the Phillies fo and player personal, misjudged the whole situation, that is the part we should be mad about, not if the stat people on here were right or wrong, How can a fo misjudge so badly what pence would bring to them. over the value they would have to give up, in the future, that being the upside to singleton and Cozart, and Santana Verus pence value.

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      2. Sorry, but what proof are you referring to? I’m just not sure to which of my comments your question relates.

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  14. Before the game today they had a segment were Phillies could be buyers.5 1/2 out of first with a 31 and 38 record . there winning 4 to 2 in the 8th uuuuhhhh not again . I love the Phillies and they could come back in this division. They now have one of the best bullpen in baseball in the last month. I like Brignac think he stays as a backup. Cesar H good defense his swing is long and lack of power in it.

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    1. I think this is the start of the turnover. Paplebon, Bastardo, for what little they can bring, would help us with some salary relief, I Feel we really need younger right hand bat in outfield, with power. Maybe we can get some decent prospect, don’t know but seeing the younger guys in bullpen, gives us a chance to start the turnover.

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      1. moving papelbon is, to me, a no brainer – any prospects you get in return are a plus. Bastardo is not somebody you move for salary relief – he’s a relatively low paid middle/late reliever and for all his faults he is useful. You only trade him if you get more value in return.

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        1. Oh I thought he is arb eligible? and he would command more than 4 million, if that was the case, then I would use Holland’s and Diekman as cheaper options, but didn’t know he isn’t eligible,

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          1. A team like the Phillies shouldn’t be trading a valuable non-free agent relief arm for salary relief alone – it doesn’t make any sense as, long and medium term, they don’t need relief from the type of salary Bastardo receives or is likely to command, whether in arbitration or otherwise. The trade only makes sense if they get more player value in return.

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        2. What contenders need a closer these days?
          Detroit’s GM should have took the bait for Paps last year, maybe this year another GM may want to give him a go in the stretch drive..

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  16. Because Howard was locked in at first base through 2016, I did not have a problem with the trade for Pence. Once Santana was announced as the PTBNL, I soured on the deal, but still not completely turned off.

    Had Howard not been signed to a long-term deal, I would not have made the trade. Singleton was the only prospect given up that I considered a big loss.

    There are still questions to be answered about all three prospects, and it will be a few years before we have those answers.

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    1. I didn’t think Singleton was untradeable and on the flip side I didn’t think he was expendable because of Howard.

      I thought when the rumors were coming out in the week leading up to the trade that Pence was not needed and what Houston was looking for (2 top prospects) wasn’t worth it for him. He was having a career year and it was a horrible time to trade for him.

      I always believe prospects as comodities. You don’t need to hold onto them forever, you can trade them in and try to get value or even better value than what they end up.

      I thought the Phillies spent bullets that could have eventually been used for a significant acquisition. Cosart/Singleton/Biddle? Might have Stanton smacking HR’s fo the Phillies right now.

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      1. The problem goes back to the Lee trade where they got nothing. They then traded more for Oswalt than they got for lee. Had they not done that, trade Lee, Gose Villar, Happ would have replaced Singleton in the Pence deal. Gose was a very high commodity at the time. And, the Phillies should still have Pence.

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  17. We live in Atlanta, and went to the Braves / Phillies game on Monday. We sat no more than 10 feet from the platform where the Phillies bullpen sat to watch the game. A few random thoughts / observations:

    1) First of all, thank you Dom Brown and Justin De Fratus for giving my 9 year old son a ball. Also, thank you to Kyle Kendrick for tossing a ball up to my daughter, and thank you to Ethan Martin for tossing a ball to my son. My kids were thrilled.

    2) Even with the Phillies struggles, there was still a pretty good turnout of Phillies fans. Many of the prime seats behind the Phillies dugout were filled by Phillies fans.

    3) Ken Giles is a large, strong person. Looks like he could pass as a middle linebacker.

    4) Chewing tobacco should be outlawed during a game. It does not portray an image than a multi-billion dollar company should allow.

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    1. err, that should have read “First of all, thank you Dom Brown and Justin De Fratus for giving my 9 year old son an autograph”

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      1. Sounds like you had a great time and the Phillies were nice to you. An added bonus was that they won!

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    2. If they want to chew tobacco, that’s their prerogative as far as I’m concerned. They’re not endorsing it during a game or giving it to kids or anything and it doesn’t impair them or make them dangerous.

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  18. According to George brett, If a batboy or clubhouse person goes to buy you chewing tobacco they are fired, They don’t have any products In the clubhouse unless you bring it in, If someone wants to chew, that is there business, is it a bad example to kids sure, but that is a parents job to show the kid, it isn’t in there best interest to start that habit,

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    2. I just don’t think it is something that should be allowed in the game.

      At your job, does your employer allow you to chew tobacco during the middle of the day? I would imagine the answer would be a no. Taking it to another level, If you were the CFO, and you were proving a streaming earnings report to Wall Street, as the CEO is up there talking, you think the boss would be happy if you were in the background on camera spitting out a wad of tobacco every 3 seconds? To me, that is along the same lines of letting a baseball player spitting tobacco.

      Yeah, I realize it has been part of the game for a century, but I think it should be removed. If you invented baseball today, would you want to allow it in the game? – I think most would say no. It is prohibited in the minors (although I have no idea if they actually enforce this rule).

      30 years ago, it was not uncommon for the person next to you on a plane to be smoking, nor unusual to see the kid in traffic next to you half hanging out the window. Today, these actions would certainly catch your attention. I hope that in 20 years, players chewing would be seen as odd as well.

      (wow – this is really a tangent to Phillies prospects)

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  19. oh no! The phils are winning again. I hope this little run the phillies are on (7 out of 9; if they win today) is not the first steps in them getting rid of one more prospect to try and give it “one last shot with this core.” This stretch of 9 games really scares me.

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    1. I’ll be Danny Downer for a moment. The two losses were to the Cubs… and at home. The Cubs!?!?! But 7 of 9 is pretty darn good.. excellent in fact.

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      1. Team is too inconsistent….they may go ahead and take 3 of 4 from the Cardinals, then come home Monday against the Marlins and lose 2 of three…hard to figure this team.

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      2. An example of their inconsistencies….they have been shutout nine times in the first 67 games…..7 of those 9 shutouts have been at home
        If they can bring some of their ‘away swagger’ back to the Bank, then who knows what this team can accomplish..

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      3. The flip side is that three of the wins swept the braves right out of first place. They have a huge stretch coming up with the Marlins and Braves. If they continue to play well, we may find ourselves in some bizarro world where the 2014 Phillies are in a pennant race. I wish we could skip these 4 against the Cards though.

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    2. I’m just happy to see them winning. Starting pitching and the bullpen have been solid recently, even without Lee. If that continues…they’re only 4.5 games back and the division is pretty weak…you never know. I don’t expect them to pull it off, but I have been enjoying phillies games lately for the first time in a while. Loved watching Jimmy break the record.

      I don’t want to lose any top prospects, but “oh no” is definitely not my first thought when the team I root for plays well.

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  20. Romus when do they put up the gcl roster, do you know If brown signed for slot ?? I cant find anything on brown or gcl roster, and who was cut. I don’t think they can sign any hs kids who will help.

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      2. I hope that’s not correct. A second round college draftee who signed for full slot starting in the GCL rather than NYP?

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  21. So who do I think are the most likely Phillies to be traded?

    (1) Of the long time vets, I don’t expect a ton of movement for a variety of reasons. Not saying they shouldn’t ask around, but in almost every case I think there are barriers to a trade. I could be wrong – and obviously if I’m wrong in the sense that the offers are better than I think they will be, I hope I am wrong.

    I see one possible exception: Ruiz. (a) can’t veto a trade, (b) team friendly contract, (c) position of need for multiple contenders, (d) playing well, (e) not many (any?) other good catchers on the market. Will he bring back a top prospect? No. But he should net a decent prospect, more than Pence or Victorino did a couple of years ago., Probably won’t be traded if the team stays withing 5 games of first, but IMO the most likely long term veteran to be traded if they drop further out of the race.

    I do think that the chances that one (or more) of the cornerstone vets gets traded away are higher this year than they were last year.

    (2) Of the vets who weren’t around for the glory years, I wouldn’t be surprised if several were traded. Byrd, Mayberry, Papelbon, Burnett could all be gone. None of them (not even Papelbon) are going to get us even a “B” prospect, but maybe a lottery ticket or a relief arm or a bench piece.

    (3) Wild cards – Bastardo is IMO not someone they should be looking to deal, but if adding him to a deal involving one of the older vets nets us a better prospect, it’s a possibility. I don’t really see them moving Kendrick, but it’s not out of the question.

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  22. Pap is closer doing well with playoff exp. Could get u a good prospect Boston has been eyeing up Byrd. Take a look at thier outfield he could find a decent sp.

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  23. I mention Bastardo earlier, he is in last year of contract for 2 million. I Don’t want to give him a raise to say 4 million, which he might command, we have two guys in Diekman and Holland’s who can take his place, I am just trying to find a way to free up around 20 million to hopefully go after a right hand bat that would help them, more than Mayberry, Revere, Brown have, I think I would take anything to get out of some of the contracts, if I could unload Byrd, pap, that would help a lot in salary relief, at some point you must have faith in Giles, Diekman, Defraus to help take paps place, for me its more about salary relief, in Paps case, he has done well. I never realize how bad Amaro and Montgomery have done in the contracts they have given out, pap was a big overpaid, why did byrd get two years, the more I read about the contracts it was more Montgomery than Amaro, Montgomery has imo become another Giles, sticking is nose in the operation of the team that he shouldn’t that is what the talent commands, Giles was the one who wanted them to stick to the suggestions of the commissioner in draft and international signings, not to go over slot, others didn’t listen, and are still good with multiple titles like , st Louis, giants,

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    1. To me, trying to trade Bastardo to free up money alone, is like not buying a car because you don’t like the alloy wheels – sure, you could it for that reason, but it just doesn’t make sense in the context of the situation. He is cost controlled, is useful and doesn’t make that much money. I’d only trade him if I got good value in return (how about a young outfielder on a team loaded in the outfield – that would be good) – if you do, then that’s fine.

      The best way to free up money is to trade some combination of Papelbon, Burnett or Byrd, and then, if they are officially out of the race, Ruiz, Rollins or Utley (nobody wants Howard, at least not yet, so I’m not including him). The team has the luxury of waiting over a month to see if it will be in a pennant race. Some players I probably wouldn’t trade until that played out a little more. With Papelbon, however, I trade him as soon as I can (even pay a portion of the salary), because he’s pretty expensive, he could blow up at any time, and there is ample depth to fill in behind him. I’d probably trade Byrd and/or Burnett too, but I might wait unti mid-July to see if there’s any way the team might make a playoff run.

      I’m not trading Ruiz, Utley or Rollins unless I get really good prospects in return (of course the players must consent too) because, frankly, all of these players are outperforming their contracts, all of which are fairly team friendly albeit slightly long. Of the three, I think I’m inclined to trade Rollins because I think he might actually command more, his long term replacement is in the organization and might be up in a year and a half and I think some other guys (including Brignac) could hold down the fort just fine until Crawford is up. That said, the team would certainly feel a Rollins deparature whereas the exit of Papelbon might not be a big deal with the bullpen going as it has.

      I guess what I’m saying is that I think, if they get into the pennant race they can still make some trades that shouldn’t affect their chances this year all that much.

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    2. IMO, Ned Colletti would love to get his hands on Chase…..well he can, but he must also take Paps and at least 40% of his contract in the deal.
      And from LAD…try to get OF Joc Pederson and RHP Chris Anderson

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      1. I don’t like your fascination with trading Chase. Unless Utley wants to be traded, he won’t be traded.

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        1. He deserves a chance to play on a WS team before he retires…..don’t you think he deserves that at least.
          I can be selfish and wish he stays but why?

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          1. He already has played on a WS. He has a ring, and he’s been a part of the best team in baseball.

            If Utley wants to be traded, and we can get a decent value, I would begrudgingly accept trading him. But Utley legitimately does not appear to want to leave. He’s signed contracts with the Phillies that have been below what he could get on the open market. He’s never so much as tested free agency. He legitimately appears to love this organization.

            So yeah, I think Utley does deserve to play for contenders. But I also want him to be a Phillie for life, and if that’s what he wants too (which appears to be the case) then there’s not much in the realm of possibility that would force me to ask him to accept a trade.

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            1. anon….so you think a MLB player is satisfied with one WS ring? Interesting….then why not every ballplayer play out the string in his career once they get that first WS ring!

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            2. anon – do you really think this Phillies team as constituted now will challenge for a WS this year or even next?
              In other words….can this team beat out any of the Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, Nationals, Pirates?

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        2. Well if I thought he would get that sort of return, and would consent to a trade, I’d be fascinated with trading him myself! Unfortunately, I don’t buy either premise. My degree of confidence in my opinions is much greater for the former than the latter.

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            1. hehe. I could well be wrong about his willingness to accept a trade, but I would be truly shocked if he got the kind of return you hope for. But we’ve been over this ground before, and aren’t going to convince each other. I hope that you are right. 🙂

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  24. philly com Poll….19 June 2014:

    The Phillies have won 7 of 9. Do they have hope?
    Yes. The NL East is weak enough to give them a chance.
    763 (51.9%)
    No. They should sell at the trade deadline.
    707 (48.1%)
    Total votes = 1470

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  25. I guess I don’t get the fascination with freeing up salary. I should pay attention to my own pronouncements (if you don’t understand it, you probably are missing something), so let’s unpack this.

    First, though, a general comment. Any rationale for freeing up salary presupposes that the current contracts are bad. For the most part, I don’t buy it. Howard’s of course, but the contract is so bad that he is untradeable. Papelbon yes, and that’s once reason he should be traded. Those aside, the contracts aren’t that bad. Maybe a year longer than one would like in a couple of cases. But on the whole, market or even below market deals. (Parenthetically, I think some of the opinion to the contrary is driven by an inadequate appreciation of how the FA market has changed over the past few years.)

    That said, let’s assume for the sake of argument that some of the contracts are bad. You’re freeing up the money for … what, exactly? Fielding a contender in 2015? Unrealistic. Fielding a contender in subsequent years? Then what’s the rush? (And of course let’s not forget those changes in the FA market which make building through FA much tougher.). Fielding a marginally more competitive team during the rebuilding process? Finally I guess an argument that makes some sense, and even one I can endorse to some extent.

    But that just brings us back to the fact that most of the current contracts aren’t bad. I’d love to have the Howard money available, but that’s not happening. So that leaves us with Papelbon, the one player just about everyone around here wants to see traded.

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  26. Did you think a few years back Carlos Beltran was worth Zach Wheeler? I’m not in favor of a fire sale but if someone wants Chase or Rollins or any other veteran I am going to listen. Chase and Jimmy are two players I wouldn’t move for the sake of moving.

    Its difficult to have trade conversations when you don’t know who is offering what, if and where the 10/5 player or limited no trade clause player is willing to go. How much money are they asking you to eat and so on.

    When a trade does happen obviously you can critique it but should nothing happen at the deadline its hard to evaluate because you are not privy to the information, the players involved and of course the intricate details of money to be exchanged.

    I pretty much agree with Larry. In this day and age of FA most of the players worth getting for 2015 will have a QO attached to them. I suppose having money free from Papelbon moving on and us having a Top 10 protected pick may warrant that but I doubt it.

    The Lee injury I think is going to prove to be killer. I think he is the one guy you could have moved and brought back a really nice player for. Even if he comes back and pitches well in 3-4 starts leading up to the TDL teams are will have in the back of their mind that injury. Oakland may still deal you something of value.

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    1. What oddly scares me about trading Lee….is non-logical, in that….for some strange reason, Lee trades in the past never worked out for the team receiving the prospects for him.
      Perhaps the Phillies and Ruben, could be the team that can break that string of jinxes.

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    2. To be clear, I was in this comment addressing the “salary relief” justification for trading veterans. Despite some skepticism about the quality of the prospects we can get in return, I do agree that the “get prospects in return” justification is a stronger rationale for a trade than the “salary relief” justification, at least for this team this season. Though as you say, it’s hard to debate this in the abstract without knowing who is on offer.

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      1. Agree when you look at the major part of the roster where does salary relief really become necessary

        Owed 2015
        Howard-$25M Yes but who would offer that
        Lee-$25M Yes many if proves healthy
        Hamels-$22.5 No I would not deal him
        Utley-$10M That’s cheap
        Papelbon-$13M sure who wants him
        Burnett-$15M Mutual option Sure who wants him will he approve
        Rollins-$11M That’s Cheap
        Ruiz-$8.5M Cheap
        Byrd-$8M Cheap

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  27. I Believe that with some salary relief, we might and its might be able to find a right hand bat, as weak as that division is, we could contend in 2015 . With some of the kids in the bullpen and a power hitter in center or left, we would have a chance in this weak divison without hurting our long term rebuild.

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    1. roccom….and tell me who would that bat be?
      Free agency stock is slim pickings anymore and then do you want to sacrifice another high pick for a short term gain?.
      The other option is trades…who do the Phillies have that will bring back a power bat?
      I think the one possibility is Colletti will let go of Kemp for Utley since he rids the Dodgers of that contract and plus the fact Kemp has been unhealthy of late and has not produced as he did 3/4 years ago. So trades are also risky..

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  28. Romus, I wish right now I knew, but teams when they find they are out of race might have someone to help, imo as bad as this team has played they aren’t out of it with this weak division. without sacrificing any prospect, maybe there is a right hand bat we could get for a Pap and Bastardo combo. And looking at chooS numbers and others in fa I agree most of these guys, for some reason don’t put up the great numbers you expect. This team needs a right handed bat imo so bad, but finding one wont be easy. The reason I keep saying Bastardo and pap is there is hope the kids we have might be able to replace them, we have no starters to replace lee, Hamels right now, I Wouldn’t touch kemp, no way,

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  29. 37 Games left leading up to 2 days before the trade deadline. If they played 600 ball their record would amount to 54-53. At that point they would have 55 games left in the season if you were to say they need 88-90 wins they would need to go 34-21 in the second half.

    Brown and Asche would need to catch serious fire for that to happen. One thing you could do if you wanted to roll the dice for a WC spot would be to platoon Mayberry with Revere. Mayberry at least gives the threat of the long ball and some power.

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  30. Rupp could be up with the Phillies for a month or longer if Nieves’ ‘feeling the pop’ in his quad is that serious.

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    1. Is it too early to know who the potential suitors would be, they saved close to 40 million on what they were initially going to offer MAG, I hope they would consider putting that towards Tomas.

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