Post Draft Top 5

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Exiting the excitement that surrounded draft week, now is as good as time as any to look at how the Phils Top 5 prospects have changed since the beginning of the season.  This is how it goes now from my perspective.

1.  JP Crawford–I had Crawford ranked second pre-season and his continued excellence has only increased enthusiasm.  He should shortly be moving to Clearwater and remains on target to hit Philadelphia late in 2016.

2.  Aaron Nola–With his college pedigree, Nola is as “cant miss” as you can get in the draft.  He isn’t a can’t miss superstar, but as close to a can’t miss #2 or #3 starter as possible. Those kind of players are clearly at a premium in any organization, let alone the Phillies.

3.  Maikel Franco–I am still very high on Franco, but this years early season struggles make it clear that he has a few glaring weaknesses that need continued work at the minor league level.  I expect Franco to have a long and successful career in Philadelphia, just not as soon as originally expected.  Franco drops from #1 to #3.

4.  Jesse Biddle–I am ready to buy in to the question marks.  I have seen Biddle live look simply awesome in his 15+K performance against Harrisburg last year and also seen him struggle mightily with his command, while becoming clearly flustered by the occasional lack of defense behind him.  He has the talent of a #2 starter.  It is up to Biddle and the Phils to continue to develop it.  He has dropped from #3 to #4 in my book.

5.  Kenny Giles–Just to the majors last week, Giles still qualifies as a prospect with just a third of an inning of major league experience. As I am not about to put the label of #5 prospect on Carlos Tocci, who, albeit at 18, still struggles to hit the ball out of the infield or Kelly Dugan, who has had a half season filled with injuries.  So, it becomes Giles who after a difficult year last year became the talk of the town for the first two and a half months of the season.  He was lights out in Reading and did a decent job in Lehigh Valley with some notable command issues.  His upside is very high as back-end of the bullpen guy who will strike out a ton of hitters.  From from a finished product, best case scenario would have had him in Lehigh Valley until September.

Looking forward to the discussion….

38 thoughts on “Post Draft Top 5”

  1. Top 4 looks good. Maybe Franco > Nola, but tough to argue.

    For #5 I might put Quinn there. Then I would think about Altherr, Tocci, and Grullon before Giles. This is based on ceiling (closers are valuable, but not as valuable as starters), negative scouting reports, and bad peripherals in AAA.

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    1. #5 was by far the toughest. There is simply no obvious choice and I agree with your point on value. I see five as a complete crapshoot where 10 people will come up with 10 different answers. My thoughts on Giles is that of the remaining players he has the best chance of providing most value. Just one mans thoughts and frankly I hope I am wrong.

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  2. Should the Phillies look into a Sports Psycologist for Biddle in an effort to have him bear down and keep his composure better?

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    2. Maybe he could use some counseling. However trying to convince someone they need it isnt always easy there can be a stigma involved with admitting weaking and seaking help for someone who perceives themselves as an alpha or atleast future star. But i myself think the phillies might need to look into those things maybe even motivational type people. Although we are talking about a team that just got into sabermetrics and seems to lag behind in some modern facets of the game

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      1. I don’t know the issue with Biddle, but generally control problems come with an inability to repeat the delivery consistently. I don’t think this is something that is necessarily a psychological issue. Would you send a basketball player with an inconsistent jump shot to a counselor?

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      2. The Phillies were one of the first teams to start counseling and substance abuse help as they hired DIckie Noles to run it, Noles went to college after his MLB career, got certified and by all accounts has done a very good job in this area.

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    1. you are correct. I thought he handled low A well enough to get that 5 spot

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  4. It seems like there isn’t a consensus that Nola has #2 upside. Some of what I read suggests he’s more of a #3/4. And to me, we haven’t learned anything about Franco that we didn’t know at the end of last season, so I’d still go Franco 2nd and Nola 3rd, but I can see the argument for Nola if you like his upside.

    Giles has come a long way but #5 is too high for me to rank a reliever with below average control/command. I’d agree with Grullon or maybe Quinn there.

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  5. Number 5 is tough – I still like Tocci, who would have graduated from high school yesterday here in the states and already has a year and a half of (admittedly underwhelming) low A ball, or Grullon, both based more on ceiling and potential rather than production.

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    1. I have never been on board with Tocci. Yes, I see that he is young. But, youth by itself does not fully cover for the lack of results. Is it just me or are we looking at a best case, very best case, Doug Glanville?

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      1. Truthfully none of us has any idea what we are looking at when it come to Tocci. Because any estimation is based purely on projecting his maturing and all of us are just speculating then.And as of right now we have Ben Revere with a much better arm and route runner and a line drive swing. An that is just assuming that he adds minimal strength over the next 2-3 years.

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      3. wes….you may see Doug Glanville I see Garry Maddox. Maddox did not break out until he was 21, and that in the Desert League of California.
        They are comparably built the same way.

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  7. Looks about right. No reliever should be ranked so high – not that he doesn’t deserve to be; its just sad.   

    We’ll have a much better grasp of Nola’s upside at the end of the year. If he dominates A+/AA hitters like he did in college, he’ll be a top 30 prospect & considered much more than a mid-rotation starter. If he comes anywhere close to his college numbers, he’ll still be in the top 40. 

    Nola has plus-plus command and plus movement of three pitches, so when you add above-average velocity, deception, outstanding “pitchability” and the work he puts in studying hitters, he could be something special, maybe really special. I’m not ready to hand him the Cy Young but there IS something to dream on here, maybe plenty. 

    Nola gets downgraded because he doesn’t throw 100 mph and the general assumption is velocity = upside, but  anyone who throws a 93 mph fastball with phenomenal movement and pinpoint accuracy is something special, and his other pitches aren’t far behind. Carlos Rodon doesn’t really throw harder; maybe a tiny bit but not consistently, with less movement and way less accuracy. Nola lacks Rodon’s plus-plus slider, but I’d take pinpoint control of three above-average to plus pitches over a wipeout slider anyday. Nola also seems like a special baseball mind – a future pitching coach type who studies the game.(not just another toolshed) So long as he stays healthy, the reasons for Nola’s success are among the most sustainably effective for a pitcher to possess.

    Where is Imhof? Brown? Oliver? Actually a lot of 2014 picks could appear in the postseason top 30. One nice thing about College picks is that they can produce some meaningful data by the end of the year. Any of our top 7 picks+Stank, Davis and Powers could be in our org top 30 by the end of the year, and strong numbers put any in the top 10. Of course recent draft picks can be ranked aggressively in any top 30 list, but in this case it could be more than projection.(and wishful thinking) The downside is, you also know what you don’t have sooner with college picks, but patience isn’t necessarily a virtue in that regard.    

    One last point regarding Nola’s upside- the notion of a sidearm throwing starting pitcher, with pinpoint control, HAS to appeal to the 12 year old in you. Who here hasn’t thrown a pretend game sidearm against a brick wall after school in 4th grade? Painting the corners to striking out MLB hitters with funny moving sidearm pitches is every pre-pubescent boy’s dream. Who at that age didn’t watch submarine-throwing relievers warm up and wish a great starting pitcher threw like that?   Nola is every 11 year old baseball fanatic’s dream come true, so how could he possibly lack upside? Is everyone afraid to admit how bad they want him to succeed with that approach or what? A pitcher’s ceiling is the best he can possibly be and there’s no reward for conservative projections, so who can honestly say they cannot conceive how he could be more than a #3 starter?…especially while confidently asserting he will soon become a very good MLB pitcher? Its a rhetorical question, i get the #3 rationale and agreed until the Phillies fanboy in me kicked in, but i think he’s being shortchanged, because control artists routinely get by with 30 stuff and his is 60-65.   

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  8. Though it is a long way from draftee to MLB, there seem to me some of the kind of pitching we see from one of the greats…Greg Maddox. Wow! What a thing to say! A HOFer…in comparison? Crazy, yes?

    That HOFer relied on command, movement of his pitches and a plan for each batter he would face. I do see some similarities w our first draftee: he is said to have movement on his FB (92-94), an ability to put it in the correct quadrant and edges, with a developing change-up and breaking pitches.

    I greatly favor guys with that kind of command while still on the way into and up the minor leagues.

    Who knows how it all will turn out?; I believe there is more there than has been fully developed and is subject to strong improvement in a relatively short minor lg career.

    A lot to like; a lot to hope for.

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  9. I know Perkins hasn’t show a lot of her power yet. He has hit every level and plays good outfield . so he’d be my #5.I like to base my raking on production for most part.

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  10. Good write up. The top 4 right now is pretty accurate. From 5 and later it gets a bit more debatable. Due to lack of prospects who have been producing already and also due to the better draft prospects picked up the top 20/30 will change a good bit. Imhof and Hoskins look like they will do good while Oliver and Leibrandt I feel were greatly underrated and could be steals in the draft. 12th round pick Davis could be a wildcard also from the draft while Im not sure on Brown as of yet.

    When trying to rank prospects there are 2 thoughts – how good can they be & how close they are to the show. Giles is more of the case of the higher ranking because, he is good but he is also much closer to the show.

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  11. #5 has to be Quinn. A year ago he was #1/#2 in our system and adjusting to full season ball when he got hurt twice. He has come back and shown no ill affects of either injury and has been move to a slightly less valuable position, but one that will play to his speed more. If he finishes this year strong he could be right back in the mix for the top of the list.

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  12. For my money, Cord Sandberg is 2x the prospect that Tocci is. I think by the end of the year, people are going to be really high on him. I am also in the Quinn camp.

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  13. Well, it would be great to have Cord gain his potential–IMO,a hitter with power plus a good athlete. He can make headway this season…looking for more from him than we’ve seen so far.

    He looks like the best (possible) power hitter in the org.

    SSS, off to a good start…and I notice he’s been put at the top of the lineup; to me this indicates the FO wants to get him as many PA’s as possible to further that development.

    P.S. Check out the Pirates’ Polanco rookie from the DR: looks like a possible star in the making. Now, why aren’t there ANY of our pharm products from LA who seem comparabe? Just a power hitting 3b-man whose athletic ability is very questionable who received the Phils highest LA prospect bonus…!!??

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    1. Franco is a full year younger than Polanco and prior to this year, it would be pretty hard to argue Polanco ever out-produced him. Also- I’d take a slow, below – average defensive 3B with elite slugging and hitting tools over a speedy, plus fielding RF with plus hitting and and below average power. Polanco is great and ready for the show, but I’m not sure I’d trade him for Franco. Polanco could give you .300 with 12-18 hrs, 25 steals and good defense as a corner outfielder, while Franco could match the avg with double the hrs as a corner infielder. Their obp is about the same but Franco ‘ s slg is significantly higher. I wouldn’t knock the younger Franco relative to Polanco at the same level.

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  14. You can’t say Franco is #5 based on his awful season thus far. Unless he turns it around in a big way, he will never be promoted to the big leagues.

    Glanville didn’t play A ball at 18, because he went to play ball at Penn.

    Tocci has done nothing to prove that he will be a stud. He proved that he is not awful, but there is way too much hope that his body fills out and power comes along with it.

    Giles has to be #5 based on potential and success thus far.

    Altherr and Dugan are fringe minor leaguers who I would deal in a second if you could get anything in return.

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    1. Oh come on don’t be ridiculous with this “not even 5th” in the organization talk. Franco is still very young for his level and just came off two seasons of arguably the top offensive production in the minor leagues. Sure he’s a divisive figure but he’s still an elite prospect according to virtually every publication. Do you honestly think the Phillies have 5 better prospects than Franco? Whether you weigh projection or production more heavily, he’s advanced for his age, easily possesses the system’s best combination of hit/power tools and owns the best statistical track record in the system. I ranked Crawford 1st in the preseason, so no argument there, and maybe an argument could be made for Nola, but who else could you put in front?

      I can pretty much guarantee Franco will see major league service time- denying that is among the most outrageous claims ever made here and that’s saying a lot. Close behind is the statement that Altherr and Dugan are “fringe minor leaguers”, unless you meant fringe major leaguers.

      I’d honestly love to see your ranking- no offense whatsoever, I’m just curious because there aren’t a lot of options. It must be pretty creative.

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  15. The most disappointing thing, about the Phillies minor leagues so far this year, is almost no one has stepped up and made us take notice. Kenny Giles might be the only guy so far. Crawford is as advertised but he hasn’t done any better than I expected. He’s risen to the top because Biddle and Franco stumbled. Maybe they’ve tripped or possibly fallen down. They’ve fallen and they can’t get up. we need a medic alert for them.

    Looking at our pre-season top 15, Biddle, Franco and Crawford are mentioned above. We didn’t know what to do with MAG but let’s call him injured. Tocci hasn’t jumped up but he hasn’t plummeted either. Quinn, Martin, Altherr and Dugan have had some injuries to deal with and haven’t distinguished themselves yet but Altherr has made some mighty strides in the last 2 weeks. Cesar Hernandez is in the show but not showing much. Cozens has done exactly what I expected of him. He’s shown power but not much of a hit tool. Green and Joseph have both had the injury bug and there isn’t enough info on them to make a statement either way. Sev Gonzalez has been up and down and I was expecting that. It’s not enough to get excited about but he’s shown some ability. That leads to Kenny Giles. His stock is up and because of the problems in the Phillies bullpen has been called to action. It’s far too soon for him to be in the Majors but who else are you going to pitch?

    So the new crop of guys coming in will put some new blood in the organization but I’m not seeing a huge breakout guy except Nola. The 2nd half of the season usually has a guy or two who shows breakout possibilities. My crystal has been myopic so I’ll sit back and hope for the best.

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    2. I would definitely say that Crawford has stepped forward in a big way. Maybe you expected him to put up similar numbers in A ball as his numbers in rookie ball, but I don’t think anyone else did.

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  16. Everybody hits:
    I mistyped. I meant you cannot say Franco is #1 anymore, not #5. My bad.

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  17. Also meant fringe major leaguers. 3 kids can wear you out over the course of a day, as you can see in my posts.

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  18. I like Dugan and Perkins a little more. He lacks pop for full-time duty but Perkins might hit enough to hang around as a 4th outfielder, and have a Mayberry type career, (although they are very different players). Mayberry might even be closer to Dugan, because of their athleticism/versatility…All three are late bloomers, but Dugan and Perkins actually hit so it’s not just potential with them. Dugan could have a few years as an average starting corner outfielder. He has some pop, makes solid contact, gets on base and doesn’t hurt you on defense, so he just needs to stay on the field.

    Funny that Golson-Mayberry trade might be one of Rube’s best in retrospect. Mayberry might even fetch a low level prospect if they clean house. You might consider Mayberry a fringe major leaguer but he’s managed to hang around too long to be easily dismissed as a mere AAAA type.

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  20. An outfield of a # 1 pick a rule 5 draftee and an mid level FA won the phillies a WORLD SERIES. San Francisco won a 2 World Series with avg outfield. Nobody knows how Dugan and Perkins will perform at the major league level . I agree we do need a stud outfielder though our sys or Fa .Boston was scouting the Phillies for outfield help looking at both Byrd and Mayberry.Boston is deep in young pitching. RAJ has said his first goal is getting starting pitching .both in our sys and at the Major league level.

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