My Fault – Mock Draft

2014 Draft, Other Stuff

Hi folks, you know we’re working on a mock draft. Yeah, I hit post by mistake a minute ago. We’ll post when Matt and I get to a good stopping point, (Top 20, end of round 1, when we get tired of waiting, whatever).

Until then, let’s make this a good excuse to discuss the draft, if you like. Post your own mock lists. Make your Phillies picks. Call me dumb, etc. etc. etc.

54 thoughts on “My Fault – Mock Draft”

    1. I gave that post a thumbs up. Nothing personal. This is the way I roll on a Friday.

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    2. Just the one. This more for fun and looking at some scenarios, but in reality the Astros or Marlins could end any mock draft scenarios very quickly. There will be a lot of draft content this weekend into next week looking at some more scenarios and players. Mocks are fun, but in baseball they don’t tell too much.

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  4. If Nick Gordon is still on the board, do you draft him over an arm, even though the Phillies system needs arms?

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    1. I think I would, but I don’t think he’ll make it there. If he makes it there, maybe someone else in that upper echelon does as well and then what do you do?

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      1. It seems every year, some team picking in the top five or ten make a move that has people left scratching their heads.
        I hope it is not Ruben this year.

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        1. I saw one mock earlier today that had the Phillies taking Max Pentecost, catcher, Kennesaw State. The most common one I have seen has us nabbing Nola.

          I know the philosophy of taking the best available on your board – just not sure how excited I would be about taking a catcher.

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    2. If he’s there, the Phillies should take him without a second thought. Best position player in the draft.

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  5. 1st round — I’m getting more and more comfortable with Nola and that’s who I think we’ll get
    2nd round — a H.S. pitcher to pair with the collegian — Blewitt or Varga strike my fancy
    3rd round — H.S. OF Jeren Kendell
    4th round — another H.S. position player — Lenny Dykstra’s kid Luke
    5th round — back to college pitching with Sam Clay
    6th round — H.S. pitcher Cameron Bishop
    7th round — college pitcher Artie Lewicki
    8th round — JC pitcher David Hill
    9th round — JC pitcher Dykxhoorn I’m a sucker for height
    10th round — Stanford C (assuming he can return there) Taylor the Phillies like Stanford and Taylors

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    1. No way Dykxhoorn lasts until the 9th round….I have the Royals taking him in the 8th in my mock! (tic)

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      1. Ha! Now that the Royals intention is known, I’ll just take him with my earlier pick in the 8th round. Gotta have a 6′-8″ pitcher. Reading used to get some truly huge pitchers back in the day. I think Malone was 6′-9″.

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  6. The more I think about it, the more I want the Phillies to pick Touki Toussaint. While he’s likely to never have amazing command, reports are saying that it has improved a lot this spring and that he has a better feel for pitching now. Plus, his stuff is dynamic- while a month ago I considered him too much of a project to pick at 7, I am starting to warm up to the idea of picking him.

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  7. I like the idea of drafting Sean Newcomb. He has perfect size to be a workhorse, but he also has potential to be a ace. Then, if he is available when our second pick comes up I would draft Michael Gettys

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    1. I like the Gettys pick but in the first round i would take Freeland or Nola. Gettys seems like someone who could really breakout with that power/speed combo although his spring hasn’t been great

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  9. Law says that all indications are that the Phillies are more interested in an arm rather than a bat. I don’t understand this. If there is a college player who can come in and help the team SOONER rather than later then they should pull the trigger. Our pitching would be a lot better if we had something else at the plate. You can’t draft for now, blah blah blah…regardless, we need help everywhere down in the farm system. We need cheap bats…ANY bats.

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    1. Because the bats aren’t there at 7. They are looking away from the bats because the value isn’t there. My top two bats are Jackson and Gordon. After them is a long stream of pitchers until you hit Turner and Zimmer, and then a bit more to Conforto.

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  10. I am concerned now…Marti Wolever says tonight on Comcast SN, this is not a good draft….’but none the less we are still excited’.
    Not sure how to take that statement.

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    1. Just laying the PR groundwork for taking 5th-year college seniors in rounds 4 and 5.

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  11. The way I see this draft is like this. There are 5 players who seemed to of seperated themselves from the rest. They are Rodon, Aiken, Kolek, AJax and Gordon. If 1of those 5 are there the Phils pick should be easy. I’ve seen 2 mocks that have Kolek falling to them at 7. That is giving me reason for some optimism there.
    If those guys are gone I think a lot of us will feel deflated and dissapointed. The next 8 or 10 guys are in the same tier. It’s kinda like we’re settling. I think in that case they’ll take G. Holmes. Just a hunch.
    What I would do is take Hoffman. Who’s kind of a Wild Card here. We always talk on here about its not about now but about 3,4, 5 years down the line. Ur getting a top 3 talent with ace upside at 7. Yes he’s coming off TJ and he won’t pitch this year but the success rate is very high nowadays on it. Plus in some cases you gain a tick or 2 on your fastball. And if for some reason Hoffman wants to play hardball or go back to school it’s a protected pick. If its a supposed weak draft then you come right back and pick 8 next year. Just my 2 cents.

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    1. i’m totally with you on Hoffman. before the injury he was going first or second and while he’ll miss developmental time, it is the type of injury that has a high recovery rate and low incidence of recurrence. i just think the upside is there to take a chance on him (and maybe even sign him below slot and go above on the next few round)

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      1. I agree with Nola. I think he prob goes before Phils. Not a ton of upside but he’s a safe pick. Prob maxes out as a 3 but a safe bet to reach majors.

        The other guy that seems to be gaining some steam and I could see going early is Pentecost. I’ve seen him projected as high as 4.

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  12. Something weird always happens and someone we didnt expect is going to be there. I believe it. But heres the first 2 rounds. Ive heard the Phillies are on Flaherty from 2 sources. I dont think Flaherty throws hard enough to warrant a first round selection and could be a solid 2 way player at UNC. So hes an overslot. So maybe they go underslot with Zimmer and make up for it.
    —
    Round 1) Bradley Zimmer OF University of San Francisco
    Round 2 ) Jack Flaherty P/3b Harvard West Lake, Studio City California

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    1. I thought Flaherty was rumored to be in play with our 2nd round pick. He’s supposed to have great control for a 2 way prep player, so I’m on board with that in the 2nd…although he could be a waste of money

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  14. How about we draft 2b Forrest Wall. Just want to go to a game and yell run Forrest run.

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  15. where can i find stats and game logs for some of these players Nola, Gordan, Zimmer, Holmes? Cant find them anywhere.

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    1. You might be able to find the college stats on the respective team websites. You aren’t going to find the HS stats outside local newspapers in most cases. That being said, the stats (especially HS) are completely irrelevant. Look at someone like Denton Keys last year, he may have given 1 run all year, he had one pitch, a low 80s fastball. That isn’t what made him a pro prospect, what made him a prospect was that he was a projectable LHP

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  16. There are at least seven guys with very high ceilings. Two, Hoffman and Touki, come with significant risk. If the Phils are willing to take the risk, they will certainly get a high-ceiling guy. If not, they will be forced to settle for someone like Nola, unless there are two surprises in the first six picks.

    The problem with picking Nola is that the Phils will need a handful of stars if they are to be a top team again and that Nola doesn’t project to be star.

    I can’t see the Phils’ being a top team again before 2018. To get there that soon, who will be the stars? Lee? No. A 34-year-old Hamels? Maybe. Franco? He has a shot. Crawford appears to be the most likely star in 2018, and there is even uncertainty with him. The system currently is lacking in future stars.

    To make a long story short, the Phils need a string of successful drafts to become relevant again. In 2014, that means taking a risk at No. 7, unless one of the top five falls into their lap.

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    1. Your argument cuts both ways though. Minor league hitters and older major league players aside, the system is SO bereft of talent that they need just about everything – potential stars and potential solid major league players. They need quantity and quality, and arguably taking a high risk player at #1 is a bad move under those circumstances.

      Note that I DO agree on the need for stars. But you need solid major league players at pre FA salaries as well.

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      1. Since stars are harder to come by than solid regulars, I think that, whenever there is a chance to get a star in a weak system like the Phillies’, you take the chance. Moreover, there are a few guys already in the organization who could be solid regulars as well as some of the lower-round draftees this year and next and future available free agents.

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        1. Shooting for stars unfortunately often leads to coming away with nothing. Golson, Hewitt, LGJ at 10% chance of success or a 50% chance of a solid major leaguer? Larry is right that the Phillies need solid major leaguers. That has been their problem for years. They’ve had stars as long as I can remember, but those stars failed, because they were surrounded by a lot of less than solid major leaguers. Whether it was Robin Roberts and Richie Ashburn, or Allen, Callison, Bunning, and Short, or Schilling and Rolen, or the current Utley, Hamels, Lee, and Rollins — really even Ruiz, it has been the lack of solid major leaguers across the roster more than the lack of stars that has hindered Phillies teams past and present. Nola as a solid #3 is not at all a bad outcome. You don’t want your team to get addicted to the gambler’s mentality — we’re so far behind that it makes no sense to hit a safe double, we have to always go for the HR, no matter what the odds. Desperation feeds desperation, and good results usually don’t come from desperation. Winning the lottery may be your retirement plan, but when you realize that the payout is only 50% and that 50% is taxed, you should understand that your emotional desperation is driving you into a losing bet. Given where the Phillies are, they need to hit on a lot more than one long-shot if that is the gambler’s approach they plan to follow. That further decreases the odds of success. How much less odds are there that a guy like Nola who seemingly has what it takes to be a solid major league pitcher, without the increased injury risk of the flamers, turns in several star seasons than that a high risk/high reward guy turns in a few star seasons. We know that Nola has a much higher chance of turning in a lot of good seasons.

          While not great, Nola’s FB velocity is ok. His control is great. He has decent secondary offerings. I think part of the ‘tools’ approach misses the very fundamental. Speed and ‘raw power’ are the sexy tools for hitters. They are what scouts and fans dream on. However, the hit tool is the necessary ingredient to make it work. We don’t value the hit tool enough. Same with pitchers — FB velocity is sexy and an incredibly breaking curve can be sexy — but it is control and command that make the machine work. Lacking that, you’ve got Aumont. With lots of that, even without great stuff, you’ve got late career Maddux and Jamie Moyer.

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          1. This will come across as a knock on our minor league staff and that isn’t fair, because I’m not sure many teams do any better at this than we do. But… I’d feel a lot more comfortable about high risk/high reward picks if I saw evidence that our development staff was able to turn them into successful major leaguers. We haven’t been able to teach the kids with the sexy speed/raw power/glove skills who couldn’t hit when drafted to hit well enough to put their sexy tools to use. We haven’t taught the no control/command pitchers control and command. I guess GIles is on his way to becoming the first recent positive in that regard. Second, as shown by Giles and Brown and Howard — these risky guys are just as easily found in later rounds as in the first or second round. There are a lot of toolsy lottery tickets in every draft.

            We’re currently really happy with Crawford. He wasn’t a sexy tools guy. He was a solid baseball player with good tools across the board, except power, but even there not out of line for a SS. His biggest tool is the unsexy hit tool.

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            1. Your discussion about prospects with tools is more appropriate when discussing position players, not pitchers like Hoffman and Toussaint.

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          2. Surely, you are not putting Touki and Hoffman in the same category as Golson, Hewitt, and LGJ. That’s absurd.

            I agree that a team needs both stars and solid regulars to succeed, maybe four or five of the former and seven or eight of the latter. Possible solid regulars already in the organization are Biddle, Quinn, Sandberg, Tocci, etc. plus lower-round draftees and free agents.

            Regarding Nola, KLaw has pointed out that guys with low arm slots don’t succeed as starters. You might have to go all the way back to Ewell Blackwell in the ’40s and ’50s to find a successful RH low-slot pitcher.

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            1. Hoffman is more a Hamels-type risk. I’d be quite happy with him as our pick. I think Touki is quite a bit riskier. I’d rather have Nola.

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            3. Doesn’t Justin Masterson have a pretty low arm slot? I know he’s not the greatest pitcher, but he’s had some good years. How many low arm slot RHPs are there to begin with anyway?

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            4. Here’s where we need to talk about just how much risk is acceptable. Touki isn’t quite in the Golson/Hewitt and JGJ class, but from all I’ve read he does seem very high risk. I’d stay away.

              You can make a case for Hoffman though. But not a slam dunk. TJ surgery is relatively low risk these days, but some players never really cime back the same pitcher. And some end up needing a second T.J.

              I also think you are way underestimating how many solid prospects you need to develop a solid major leaguer. Even relatively “safe” guys often fail.

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    1. It would be great if he was picked by somebody ahead of us. He just seems like a tweener.

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      1. Tween what and what? I don’t want Zimmer I just don’t understand.

        I want Holmes or Freeland. We should be able to get one of them but for whatever reason aren’t linked to either, besides the previous pick.

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