Game Score

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As a baseball purist, I admittedly dont look as deep into the metrics as perhaps I should. I must admit however that the concept of “Game Score” for starting pitchers has struck my fancy in measuring the quality of performance on a particular night for a particular pitcher.  If you look at the average Game Score of a particular starter, you get a very good idea of what their body of work looks like over the course of a season.  In essence, game score combines durability, control and overall effectiveness to come up with a number to put on a particular outing.

Bill James developed Game Score and the math goes like this:  Start with 50.  Add one point for each out recorded (so three points for each IP); add two points for  each full IP after the fourth; add one point for each strikeout; subtract two points for each hit allowed; subtract four points for each ER allowed; subtract two points for each unearned run allowed; subtract one point for each walk. In essence, Game Score takes the concept of a quality start and expands on it, factoring in control and hittability. The highest Game Score in history went to Kerry Wood who achieved a Game Score of 105 on 5/6/98. He struck out 20, allowing just one hit and didn’t walk a batter.

Game Score allows you to assess a degree of quality on a particular start and extrapolate from there.   Now, looking at Phillies minor leaguers….At the AAA level, the highest Game Score achieved this year was Greg Smith, back on April 17th, who achieved a Game Score of 78.  The lowest Game Score was “achieved” by Brad Lincoln who received a 17 for a miserable start just a few days ago on 5/28/14.  In a system which would categorize a “quality start” at a 50, IronPigs average Game Scores are as follows (Min 4 starts): Pettibone 52, Smith 52, Enright 50; Buchanan 49, O’Sullivan 47n and Lincoln 41.

For Reading, Jesse Biddle threw the game with the best game score of 82 (4/23/14), while Severino Gonzalez had by far the worst Game Score of 5 with his outing on 5/11/14.  Reading average Game Scores are as follows (Min 4 starts): Biddle 55, Garner 49, Milner 49, Gonzalez 48, Nesseth 32.

Heading to Clearwater, pitching has been simply miserable, absent a good outing here and there.  The best outing of the year thus far occurred back in the second game of the year, when Ethan Stewart achieved a 69.  The worst outing of many miserable outings went to Luis Paulino (released last week), who had a Game Score of 10 on 5/24/14.  Clearwater average Game Scores(Min 4 starts): Stefan 46, Kleven 45, Stewart 41, Colvin 39, Nunez 38, Prosinski 38.

Finally, in Lakewood, Mark Leiter, who has been sturggling as of late, had a high Game Score of 77, back on 4/26/14.  The dubious honor of low Game Score goes to Ranfi Casimiro, who put up a “4”, back on 4/18/14.  Lakewood starters average out as follows:(Min 4 starts):Anderson 52, Leiter 50, Viza 49, Casimiro 43, Arteaga 32.

 

 

10 thoughts on “Game Score”

  1. So, a start of: 7 inn, 3 runs, 7 hits, 2 walks, 6 Ks = 50 points. Is that supposed to be “replacement player,” “league average,” or is that better than average? Is there a tiered system for understanding how good a start was?

    80+ = dominant
    65-80 = Great
    50-60 = Good
    40-50 = Average

    Trying to better understand what the numbers mean…

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    1. The average Game Score for all pitchers last year was in the neighborhood of 49. I think your scale is close but probably needs slight modification. I would go 75+ as dominant. There have been only 3 starts all year in the Phils minor league system above 75 (2 by Biddle). I would go 65-74 as great; 56-64 as very good; 52-56 good; 48-51 average; 43-47 below average; 35-42 as poor; below 35 very poor.

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    2. or could it be seen as this… (numbers are averages)

      55 + = Ace
      50 – 55 = 2nd Starter
      45 – 50 = 3rd Starter
      35 – 40 = 4th Starter
      30 – 35 = 5th starter

      Obviously, this isn’t to say that Biddle’s 55+ projects him to be an ace. But, I am thinking more MLB pitchers. What has someone like Lee / Hamels been averaging over their careers? What where their game scores in MiLB? Could we then look at someone like Biddle, using his game score and give a projection of his future?

      Or maybe it wasn’t designed to be used like this.

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      1. ANother way to look at it is this: If a SP has a game Score of 75+, your team wins 89% of the time. A game score of 65, gets your team a win 77% of the time; At a Game Score of 60, your team wins 62% of the time; at 55, your team wins 61% of the time; at 50, your team wins 55% of the time; at 45, your team wins 46% of the time. Dropping down to 40, your team wins 35% of the time. AT 30, your team wins 23% of the time. I dont think Game Scores of 30-35 correlate with a #5 starter and 35-40 a 4th starter. Those numbers would be unacceptable over the long term.

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  2. One thing to keep in mind, of course, is that GameScore, an incredibly useful tool, is not park or league adjusted. A 50 game score in the PCL or EL is, in my view, much more valuable than the same score in the IL due to park and league factors that make the PCL and EL hitter-friendly envirnments. So when you see a 55 average for Biddle, I think it’s actually quite good in the EL/Reading.

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  3. I think somehow you need to factor in the ‘babying’ of pitchers in the minors vs the majors since they throw less innings and it’s not uncommon to see pitchers throwing a very good game that if they were pitching the Phillies would probably be given a chance at a CG, but get pulled in the 6th or 7th inning in the minors even if they’ve only given up 1 run or even have a SO going.

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  4. Gregg….can you put all the information on ‘Game Score’ in a separate folder in the Primer Section at the top of the page for future reference? Also with what constitutes the correlation of the score to the level;of dominance.

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