Draft Board 1.0 (1-20)

2014 Draft

With just under 2 weeks until the draft, I am going to take a stab at a big board for the draft. This is not a mock draft, it does not take team needs into account and it does not factor in any signing bonus considerations. This first board is only going through the first 20 players. The next time it will go through pick 50 to encompass the Phillies 2nd round pick.

1. Brady Aiken
2. Carlos Rodon
The top two players on my board form their own tier. They may not go 1-2, but neither is falling out of the top 3.
3. Tyler Kolek
4. Alex Jackson
5. Nick Gordon
The next tier is three school players with big time upside and plenty of risk. I won’t argue the order here and there is a possibility one of these guys go #2 to Miami.
6. Jeff Hoffman
I know he had Tommy John surgery, but the drop off after the Top 5 picks leaves a gap where the decrease in talent would lead me to risk taking a year of waiting for Hoffman to return to the mound.
7. Aaron Nola
8. Sean Newcomb
9. Kyle Freeland
Three college pitchers here. I have been down on Nola because I don’t see the upside, but he continues to creep forward while others fall back. He is an unsexy pick, but his value is right about here. Newcomb has slightly less upside than Freeland, but he comes in a more conventional package.
10. Grant Holmes
11. Bradley Zimmer
12. Touki Toussaint
13. Trea Turner
Plenty of warts here, Holmes lacks projection, Zimmer lacks a single impact tool, Touki loses his control, and Turner might not have enough impact tools to be a regular. However, each has qualities that the right team could mold them into a very good player.
14. Tyler Beede
Top 5 talent with a track record of ineffectiveness. The team picking Beede has to have a plan on how to “fix” his issues.
15. Max Pentecost
16. Michael Conforto
Two safer picks that more first division ceilings if it all works out. If you look at the tools individually they lack impact, but the complete player is very useful.
17. Sean Reid-Foley
Upside prep arms are always a need of all teams and Reid-Foley represents the best one still on the board.
18. Jacob Gatewood
19. Erick Fedde
20. Monte Harrison
This trio all carry the risk of getting nothing out of your draft. If you hit here, you could have a Top 10 or better talent. One of these guys could fall a long way if teams don’t like the medicals (Fedde) or hit tools (Gatewood and Harrison).

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

66 thoughts on “Draft Board 1.0 (1-20)”

  1. You see any way Gatewood makes it to Phils in 2nd rd? I saw one site that had him ranked in late 30s.

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    1. I don’t, I think at very least a team with two first round picks takes him in the comp round where they can take on the risk. If there is a toolsy guy who falls it will likely be Michael Gettys

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  2. You don’t think they take Zimmer if he is available? Most mocks have them going with an arm, which I suppose is ok but a “ceiling” #3 starter with the #7 pick doesn’t seem like a very good use of the pick.

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    1. I think Nola, Freeland, and Newcomb have more #2 ceiling but point taken on #3s. However I think Zimmer is more of a first division regular ceiling and that is about a #3 starter on the value chart.

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      1. My gut feeling is Ruben , if making the choice between a HS pitcher and a college pitcher in two weeks, will opt for a college guy.
        I think he wants that pitcher in the rotation by NET July 2016.
        As opposed to a HS guy who we are looking at the earliest in 2018

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  4. I’m cool with the Phillies taking any of your top 9. Really going any in top 12 not bad. Good chance to get a plus player with any of those guys.

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  5. So, if the Phillies picked Nola, how do you think he would compare with Biddle in terms of ceiling/proximity? Would he immediately vault ahead of him to #3 on our prospect list, presuming Franco and Crawford are #1 and #2 in some order? I actually would be ok with the idea of their playing it relatively safe with a college arm, on the presumption that maybe by 2016 you could have a rotation that looks like Hamels/Lee(?)/Nola/Biddle. If you look at the deals #3 starters are getting on the free agent market, a guy that you can pencil in as a legit #3 past the year 2020 is a very valuable commodity.

    On the other hand, if they take Nola they are almost guaranteed to miss on someone who is likely to turn out to be a bona fide star, so we’ll have to just accept the fact that for a decade people will be saying, “They could have had Jacob Gatewood at #7.” Or whoever. If we knew who that guy was going to be this would be a lot easier.

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      1. In the Phillies’ defense, they tended to pick the toolsheds when they were picking toward the back of the first round, because they were good. You can kind of see the justification: if the can’t-miss talent is all gone by pick #20 or whatever, why not roll the dice on the guy with superstar upside. (I think it was Keith Law who said Hewitt’s ceiling was a perennial All Star and his floor was, “You want fries with that?”) If they were picking around #15 or something, I could see them taking a risk on a guy like Gatewood. But I think they see this pick as their best chance to improve the rotation in the medium term, which is why I think they’ll go with a pitcher who could move quickly.

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        1. ACA i agree with your clarification of the toolsy picks. it was obvious they were willing to take a lottery tickets with comp picks and back end 1st rd picks. Not saying i agree with it but it is a defensible position.

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        2. The last two drafts have been better than the prior drafts which coincides with their decline.

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      2. Gotta agree Sports Illustrated had them taking Gatewood at 7. Can’t help but thinking of how they raved about Hewitt hitting 500ft bombs in workouts at the bank. Last thing they need is another toolsy bust with their first pick

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  6. At this point, Phils may be better off taking Hoffman at 7. Obviously, he’s gonna miss the rest of this year and
    next yr it’ll prob. just be about regaining form. However, Hoffmans upside is so much more than anyone else at 7. You factor that in with a real good recovery rate for TJ nowadays and I think Hoffman may be the way to go. These other guys not named Aiken, Kolek or Rodon don’t excite me much.

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    2. Some team will draft Hoffman in the first round…….not sure RAJ can take a chance with this pick

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  7. I hate the term “lacks projection”. Does it matter if he lacks more physical projection when he’s already said to throw mid 90s with decent command of three pitches I’ve seen rated as plus? I feel like Holmes is underrated just because he’s already done his filling out.

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    1. Holmes dropped because his velocity went from 96-98 touching 100 to sitting 92-94. He is still the 3rd HS pitcher on the board. His now stuff is taken into account. If Holmes had his current stuff and room for projection, then he is an easy top 5 pick.

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        1. HS kids sometimes have velo spikes based on workload (Biddle spiked to 98 for a start or two his senior year). The 92-94 was more his velo coming into the year

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      1. Out of the draft: Fastball 92-96 (though more 96s when he is on), a hard slider that some scouts saw as high as plus plus, a changeup that is more average, and below average command. If he puts it together he is an ace.

        In his year and a half of minor league ball the FB ticked up to 98, his HS curveball returned as a show me pitch, and he started to get more feel for the changeup.

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      2. Harvey was a freak… he was sitting like 93 to 94 at UNC. Flashed 96 once or twice in Perfect Game showcases in Highschool. Wacha also had a velo jump in the minors. Maybe its professional tweaks in mechanics.

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    3. I know it sort of sounds negative, but you have to remind yourself it only describes at what level of development the attribute being discussed is at. Remember Strassberg lacked projection on many things when drafted.

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  8. Well since the phillies will probably be a sub 500 team next year aswell, I know it pains me to say that but Im being a bit of realist instead of the optimist I normally am , Why dont we take a risk on Touki , it is a big risk but with big risk comes big reward or utter failure. Take Touki and 100 mph plus fastball any thoughts on that ? Maybe he ends up being a closer and can just unleash the beast for an inning or two. Giles and Touki would be some fearsome 8th and 9th inning tandem

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    1. Using a first round pick on a guy you hope becomes a closer is like using a first round NFL pick on a placekicker. Sure, it’s great to have a guy who can ice a game with a field goal, but there are lots of guys who can do that specialized job, and it’s not going to move the needle for the franchise a bit.

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      1. I do not think he will be a closer i mean that is the floor on 100plus mph guys
        right? Still risky but why not go for it rather maybe ending up with 3/4 how well has hultzen turned out for seattle and playing it safe

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      2. And i agree picking a guy you hope will be a closer in the first round is bad. I dont really have a favorite but i wish we had a top 3 pick

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    2. I would hope the 7th pick in Rule 4 rules more then being a future closer…before age 30 anyway.

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    3. I’m starting to come around on Touki. He is so athletic, only 17, with great stuff. He has control problems, but reportedly is improving at repeating his delivery and cutting down on the wildness.

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      1. I remember a study which argued rather persuasively that one must grade up the evaluation of 17-year old HS kids and grade down the 19-year olds. Over that 2-year range, age matters a lot. That was one of the big problems with the Hewitt pick. It is also the problem with trying to take too seriously good stats put up by an 18 or 19 year old in the DSL or VSL.

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        1. Not among my top one or two realistic choices for our 1st round pick, but I wouldn’t be heart-broken if we picked Toussaint. I would be if we took Gatewood or Conforto. To me, the scariest choice on this top 20 would be Trea Turner.

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      2. Touki would not surprise me at all. It comes down to the philosophy. Nola could pitch in the big leagues late 2015, but probably will never be more than a #3. Touki will probably be in short season ball till 2016, but has #1 ceiling.

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        1. Which is why he’s not a logical choice @ #7 IMO. Need a true difference maker, not middle of the rotation innings eater.

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  9. Matt – Do you have an opinion on Texas prep RHP Garrett Fulenchek (6’4″, 185) with a sinker (90-94MPH)/slider combo as the Phils’ second rounder at No. 47?

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    1. I like him and would love him in the 2nd round (lack of changeup is not too relevant for HS pitchers). I don’t want to make any sweeping predictions for #47 just because the board can go in so many different directions. I think there is a large chance that given the way the draft looks right now, that there is a ton of prep pitchers in that range so I would not surprised if they take one there (and another prep player in the third as well)

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      1. My early prediction for rd 2 is Joe Gallo. A local pitcher from S. Jersey. Projected to be a 2nd rounder. Him being a local guy puts pressure on Phils to draft him. Otherwise, you hear how did they let him slip away if becomes a good pitcher

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        1. Matt. What is your opinion of the three SJ prep pitchers. Gallo, Smeltzer and Domansky????? ( not sure of the spelling)

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  10. 1. Michael Conforto
    2. Michael Conforto
    3. Michael Conforto
    4. Michael Conforto
    5. Michael Conforto
    6.-20. Michael Conforto

    Get it done, Phillies.

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    1. would a good comparison for Nola be Adam Morgan with the increased velo prior to his shoulder injury?

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  13. Are the competitive balance picks tradeable until draft day? What would it cost the Phils to trade for one of these?

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  14. I keep reading the Phils are very high on Gatewood and everyone in the org has traveled to watch him play. It makes me sick to my stomach. Have they not learned their lesson? Just because he is a great athlete and hit 500 ft bombs dosen’t make him a good baseball player.

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  15. The phillies should go with a player with a top grade in a showcase. The pitcher kolek as the org was real after noris out of texas and with the oil refineries here kolek seems a great selection.

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    1. Have you started early with the Budweiser on this Memorial Holiday weekend?
      I have no clue of understanding what you posted in your second sentence.

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  16. Something to think about? Chase Utley works out with the USF baseball team in the off season. Could Phillies pick Bradley Zimmer and split the #7 slot value with maybe #10-15 where he’s projected. Then use that extra $500K to $750k on a Second Rounder like Gatto?

    The Phillies have tons of holes in the minors. I know they need pitching but none at #7 are either exciting ( a top of rotation starter) or have high ceilings. OF might not be option early and HS P in 2nd round.

    Zimmer might project to be a CF/RF who will hit .270 to .300 in majors with 15-18 HR power. Anyone in the system who projects that in next 2-4 years?

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  17. I like Holmes a lot. His now stuff is good enough that he doesn’t need projection, just practice. I’d take him or Freeland. Both know how to pitch, throw strikes and have good stuff. I don’t those two don’t have ace potential.

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  19. Watching Dee Gordon play this weekend made me a bit higher on Nick. If he or Jackson is not there at 7 and Hoffman is I say go for it.

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