Box Score Recap – 5/19/2014 – The Fall And Rise Of Roman Quinn & Aaron Altherr’s Batting Average

Box Score Recap

Roman Quinn was 0-4 in his return from a ruptured Achilles Tendon. He played all 12 innings and stole a base. I’ll take both facts as good signs. Brian Pointer went deep in that game, and Gabriel Lino was 2-5 plus a walk. 22-year-old Miguel Nunez is back from a trip to XST – he gave up two hits and a walk in two scoreless innings of relief. It will be interesting to see if they keep him in the pen or try to stretch him out again.

Aaron Altherr picked up two hits in the nightcap of Reading’s DH with New Hampshire to pull his average back about the Mendoza line, where it had dipped after an 0-2 in the early game. That’s called resiliency. I guess. Dude probably didn’t even realize. Cameron Perkins was 2-3 with a double and a walk in the second game as well.

Darin Ruf and Maikel Franco went deep in back-to -back at bats in the top of the sixth to draw Lehigh Valley to within a run of Buffalo, but someone pulled the thread and Justin De Fratus came undone in the bottom of the inning, allowing two hits, a walk, a HBP and a wild pitch for three runs.

J.P. Crawford, Wilmer Oberto and Willians Astudillo all put up two hits in a losing effort for Lakewood. Delvi Francisco has allowed just one hit and struck out five over his last four innings. The former position player’s been effective in limited use thus far in 2014.

And finally, Jesus Alastre has yet to be held hitless in his six-game professional career. So that’s nice. Small sample size caveats apply, but Alastre is the best player in the history of the game and should be called up immediately.

Here’s the affiliate Scoreboard from MiLB. http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?sid=milb&org=143&ymd=20140519

5-19-14 boxscores

84 thoughts on “Box Score Recap – 5/19/2014 – The Fall And Rise Of Roman Quinn & Aaron Altherr’s Batting Average”

  1. I LOVE the season Franco is having. Moves up a level, is young for AAA, struggles for a few weeks and then starts taking more pitches, and then the power shows up. Since May 1st, his walk to k rate is 1:1. Great adjustments!

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    1. He has a .957 OPS in May, and the BB rate now stands at 9.6 percent on the season. He’ll be in Philly by September. (The only question is, where does Asche go?)

      All caveats about prospects being prospects aside … the future of the left side of the Phils’ infield certainly looks bright.

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          2. Couldn’t disagree more. Most scouts say he’s hit a blip with his recent form, not a regularity. Plus Asche will play 3B when Franco takes over for Howard @ 1st.

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        2. Franco is a superior defender and hitter. You’re saying he doesn’t deserve Asche’s job?

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          1. Asche does fairly well for himself at 3B. He had a .951 Fld% through the minors and had a .954% in 2013. He is a bit off this season at .921, but its still really early.

            Franco is a minor league career .958 fielder at 3B. But the reason I even question this is Franco’s ability to even stick at 3rd. Scouts question his mobility and range. If Asche keeps hitting and stops making errors, why do you rush Franco to the majors. He really needs a full year at AAA.

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            1. I wouldn’t consider promoting Franco in September rushing him … it would seem to be right on schedule. And while there have been scouts who have questioned his ability to stick at third long-term, I think you’re hearing that less and less, while the reports of his soft hands and solid play at the position increase. I like Asche, but the moment the org determines Franco to be ready, he should be at third.

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            2. He had One Really bad game, which happens to every one.
              Over the course of the year, I’m sure it will return to what it was before that game and historically.

              He has also made some really good plays as well lately.
              I think he is definitely has a MLB Caliber 3B Glove.
              Perhaps even a slightly above average when all is said and done.

              We just have people freaking out after one really bad game.

              I don’t think he is going to be an All-Star Regular, but I think he will be a solid hitting and fielding 3B and play quite a few years.

              If Howard does not start to really turn things around, he may find that he is no longer the starting 1B next year.

              In 2010 Howard had a 0.3 Positive War and 2011 a 0.1 WAR.
              So prior to the injury he was sliding. (Per baseball-reference)

              He was negative in 2012, 2013, and so far in 2014.
              At some point, you may need to acknowledge that regardless of how great he was through 2009, that he is no longer that player and throwing him out there because of a bad contract does nothing.

              Oh……And while it is small, Cody Asche shows a Positive War and due to age, has potential to improve while at age 34 the odds of Howard returning to his former glory of many years ago grows constantly smaller.

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            3. A comp of the ‘eye test’ stats that people like to frequently mention:
              First full season for the following third basemen:
              –Mike Schimdt……..26 errors- .954 fldg%
              –Scott Rolen………..24 errors- .948
              –Brooks Robinson….21 errors- .953
              –Graig Nettles……… 17 errors- .967
              –Aurelio Rodiguez…..24 errors- .954

              I like to see how it plays out for Asche through his first full MLB season at third.

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          2. Franco was the fourth-ranked third baseman coming into this season, behind Sano, Bryant and Castellanos. There have been questions about the defensive ability of all four, but, as you say below, less and less about Franco.

            It will be interesting to see how many of these guys stick at third and how they rank in WAR five years from now. Franco could end up first in WAR among these four if Sano and Bryant change positions and Franco and Castellanos remain at third. Franco is probably better than Castellanos defensively and has shown more power.

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    2. Agreed. He really showed mental strength by hunkering down after that tough start. Very impressive.

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  2. Another positive from Quinn’s return: zero errors, and one DP turned. The XST reports on his defense seemed to be encouraging. If he is finally turning a corner at SS … look out.

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  3. Hypothetical Question:

    If Astudillo finishes out the year at catcher for the majority of his playing time and continues to hit at this clip, does he become a top 15 prospect in the system?

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    1. Does Astudio become a top 15 prospect?
      He had another K last night……his K rate is now approaching almost 6%….no way does he become a top 15 prospect! (tic)

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    2. Not Top 15. Still old for his level, the defense is passable but not elite. He also doesn’t add much other secondary skills to the table. I would say he would be in the very back of the Top 30 if he can stick at catcher and still behind Grullon, Knapp, Rupp, and Joseph on the catcher depth chart.

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      1. I think he should be moved up if he’s old for his level, and see if his offense holds at next level. Knapp still not able to catch and so is still very much a question mark-not hitting much either for that matter. Grullon also not knocking down fences. Joseph’s injury history still makes him very questionable.

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  4. Crawford, Perkins, and Astudillo…all put their bat on the ball.
    That is refreshing to see.

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  5. Does Perkins have room to add more muscle to his frame? He leads the league in doubles, would be nice if a few more of those started leaving the ballpark. Anyone have a spray chart of these doubles, just curious how far he’s driving them.

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    1. I think he does. I believe 6′ 5″, 205 #’s presently. Line drive hitter. Hits last night were to left field.

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  6. Perkins and Crawford need to be advanced. Perkins is doing what he always does – hit doubles. The power isn’t going to show up. Just advance him and see if his bat can hold up at Lehigh/Phillies. I understand Quinn is at Clearwater now but Crawford appears unchallenged at Lakewood. Personally, I would move Quinn to lakewood and move crawford to clearwater of if your compelled….double jump crawford to Reading.

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      1. I’d do whatever I could to make Quinn’s path going forward as smooth as possible. Between learning a new position, to learning to switch hit, to the injuries, and now to the threat of disruption due to the promotion of Crawford (and, trust me, I’m not suggesting we slow down Crawford’s progresss) – he needs some stability to progress in my view. It’s nobody’s fault that it’s played out this way, but it has.

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        1. I think it’s fine if he spends the season at Lakewood, maybe with a callup to Clearwater if Quinn shows himself to be credible enough at SS to merit a late promotion to Reading. Let him go through the league a couple of times. He’s young, Rollins is going to trigger his option, there’s no great hurry to rush him to AA.

          Besides, we all know that if the Phillies are hovering within striking distance of the second wild card come late July, Crawford will probably be traded for a right handed reliever. (Joking!)

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            2. Why would he be traded? Phillies are in no position to be dealing minor league guys with upside.

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      2. Is there really any harm in leaving Crawford where he is through the summer months? He can always be promoted in July/ August.

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  7. I love the idea of moving Crawford to Clearwater. You cant lose either way, if he handles the jump you got a fast riser to majors, if he has trouble to get to see how he handles failing. I believe you get to see what he is made up, this kid is looking like he is special. and no reason to baby him,

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    1. When you start getting bored looking at player box score because you know its probably another multi-hit game….its time to advance.

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    1. Yes, that’s to be expected. Franco could very likely be the starting 3B next year with Asche pushed to the bench. He’s a very good athlete, I’ll bet he can learn to play the OF. I don’t think he’ll get traded though, he’ll be kept as insurance for Franco. It would be a good problem to have.

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    2. Even Ruben mentioned Asche to LF as a possibility prior to spring training when the question came up about a Franco/Asche third base situation down the road.

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  9. Franco up to 100 wRC+ on the year. Officially an average hitter. Not bad for the 6th youngest in AAA.

    If you had told me before the year that Franco would have a 9.6% walk rate and 16.4% strikeout rate on May 20, I would have been ecstatic.

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  10. Crawford with 2 hits in his first game (and another error…) is a great sign, the kid can really play. We’ll see how Quinn does at CWater over the next week. If he struggles, I could see the two guys switch places.
    Ruf with a homer could be a big deal. We’ve seen him get hot before and hit several in a week. Hopefully, he’s getting closer and maybe in a week he’ll be back on the big club. Who will get sent packing? Hernandez or Mayberry? My guess is Hernandez but they might try to trade Mayberry who probably still has some value unbelievably.

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  11. Off topic but I was listening to Jayson Stark on radio yesterday and he had some shocking stats for Brandon Moss, of the A’s and formerly of the Phillies. He went through the system before I started to follow this site and I was just wondering what was the general consensus of him on this site? Has he exceeded everyone’s expectations or just the Phillies’? He certainly would have been a great option in our outfield the past few years.

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    1. He was here for one year, his 4th year in AAA and his 3rd organization in 3 years. Basically we perceived him as a career minor leaguers who could hit enough to be an emergency callup.

      His recent success was completely unexpected. Looks like one of those rare guys for whom the light suddenly goes on at age 29.

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    2. He has exceeded everyone’s expectations, but he played very well for Lehigh Valley and deserved a legitimate opportunity to fail or succeed for the major league team. He wasn’t given that chance. The team jettisoned Moss in favor of a cameo tryout for the immortal John Bowker (I’m not joking, that’s precisely what happened). This move and others have led folks here to seriously question the internal talent evaluation of the Phillies.

      They also let Jason Grilli go, although the circumstances were much different as the Grilli was released in 2011 when the team’s pitching looked loaded and they were trying to do him a favor.

      Similarly, Vogelsong was released and then flourished with the Giants. This was less a scouting issue (he wasn’t good for the Phillies) than yet another issue – player development.

      I’m going on record now that if the Phillies release Rupp, this guy is going to be somebody’s very effective and cheap starting catcher for a long time. He can catch, he can call a game, he draws walks and he now hits for power – which means he has no place on Ruben Amaro’s Phillies (that’s harsh, but I bet they don’t keep him – I hope I’m wrong!!!).

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    3. If I recall correctly, he had bounced around through a bunch of organizations before coming to the Phillies as a minor league free agent. He had a nice season, hit 20-something home runs, and there was a groundswell of interest in him on this site and others, with some people calling for him to be called up. The problem was that he was lefthanded. Ibanez was playing left and Brown was playing right, both of them lefthanded, and the perception was that the team’s major (perhaps only) weakness going into the playoffs was its lefty heavy lineup. If Moss had been called up he would have taken the place of either Ibanez (wasn’t going to happen) or Brown, who was underperforming, but who was nonetheless still considered a top prospect. So the Phillies traded a kings ransom for the best righthanded bat on the market, Hunter Pence, and let Moss go someplace where he could have a major league opportunity, I think Tampa Bay.

      I don’t recall anyone being all that outraged by the move. Again, at the time, the focus was all on winning the World Series and, rightly or wrongly, Moss didn’t seem like he would address the team’s main offensive problem.

      All of which makes me nostalgic: remember when the Phillies only had one offensive problem?

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    4. I don’t think anyone on the site thought Moss would do what Moss has done offensively in Oakland, but when they traded (essentially nothing) for John Bowker in the middle of a playoff run in 2011 instead of calling up Moss, who had plenty of big league experience at about the same level of production and was having a slightly better offensive year in AAA at the time, it seemed pointless at best. Moss eventually took 6 unsuccessful PAs in the bigs that September and was not brought back. Were I Moss, and had the Phils offered me a contract without a 40-man spot, I would have passed, too. More than any other of the Phils’ minor league passes, (Grilli, Vogelsong, etc.), this one irks me pretty good.

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        1. Ha, if I’d waited, I could have avoided a few factual errors! I completely forgot the Bowker trade and also the fact that Moss actually played with the Phillies that season. For some reason I thought they sent him to Tampa Bay. Maybe I’m confusing him with another AAAA hitter who had a nice season one year? Or maybe I’m just forgetting stuff, it happens.

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    5. he was on my fantasy team last year. he is a platoon hitter. kills rhp, but can’t hit against (and doesn’t play against) lhp.

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  12. So let’s talk about Asche’s fielding …

    Despite some negative comments from me earlier, I’m not as negative as some of the people here are. At the same time, the people saying “he’s fine” are … premature at best.

    His error rate this year is not good. I’ll mostly give him a pass on that, as he was better last season and in the minors.

    But he doesn’t have much range. Subjectively I don’t necessarily trust my own observations on that, but Sandberg has said some negative things about his defense, and at one point sat him for a few games because of his defense. No one trust has said good things about his defense.

    And the advanced metrics are not kind either, this year and last. Overall, the metrics were bad last year and are horrendous this year – and most of that is range, or lack thereof. For this season, projected over the full season, he would be 30 runs below average. That’s REALLY bad. Is he that bad? Unlikely. But let’s say he’s “only” as bad as his career rate – 21 runs below average for a full year. That’s still pretty bad.

    So why don’t I agree with the most negative comments above? First of all, he may not be even that bad. We still don’t have even a full season of data, and advanced fielding metrics still have a wide error band. Moreover, he can – and probably will to some extent – improve.

    But I think it is possible that Franco may actually be better than Ashe in the field – and is also likely to be a better hitter, though Asche of course is coming around as a hitter as well.

    That said, there’s no rush. Even if you think, as I do, that Franco is the answer in the medium run, I think he’ll benefit from more time in AAA, and Asche’s trade value will be higher if he keeps improving, as he has so far this season – at least as a hitter. Franco will and should be a September call up, but no earlier. If both of them are on the team next spring, it will be an interesting battle in spring training.

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    1. The Asche to OF talk is interesting. If he can hack it defensively, given his troubles at third base so far, he could have more value in the OF. But he doesn’t really project as even an average regular as a corner outfielder at this point. OTOH, given the dearth of options, maybe he would be (at least) a decent stop gap. And who knows, his hitting could still surprise (if he maintains his BB rate and adds some more power).

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      1. I wrote a comment about this on Crashburn Alley, but in short: while I’m not making a direct comparable, Asche could play a role going forward kind of like peak Greg Dobbs: a guy who can play passable defense at 3B if Franco struggles in his initial exposure to the majors (they could even platoon for a half-season), then if he can play a good-enough left field, he provides you a potential platoon bat out there as well. On the days that he isn’t playing, he’s the first lefthanded bat off the bench. The little bit that we know about Asche’s mentality suggests he’d be the sort of guy who would be able to fit into that super-sub role.

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        1. Asche has hit better this year than Dobbs ever has. I think it’s much too soon to say he’s not a starter. I think his bat could play in a corner, albeit not being too exceptional there.

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          1. Dobbs in 2008 was about as good a hitter as Asche is this year so far. Though I suspect that, when the dust settles, Asche will indeed prove to be a better hitter.

            The interesting fact is that, if you buy the defensive metrics, Dobbs when he broke in was a better defender (by a lot) than Asche is so far.

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            1. That actually makes me feel good about Asche’s fielding going forward because I think Asche is a much better athlete than Dobbs (faster, better hitter, better arm, better eye).

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            2. I certainly find Asche’s defensive metrics curious so far for those reasons. And to be clear, partly for that reason I am somewhat skeptical of the measures, and somewhat hopeful going forward. But I don’t think you can throw out the metrics entirely (I know you aren’t saying that we can), and they do give some cause for concern.

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            3. 2008 was the only year Dobbs was an above-average hitter, and though his raw numbers were a bit better than Asche’s this year, Asche’s context-adjusted numbers are better.

              Dobbs has a career 81 wRC+. I just don’t think he’s a relevant point of comparison. I think Asche’s bat is starter-quality, while Dobbs’ never was.

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          2. Cody Asche 2014: .259/.344/.789

            Greg Dobbs 2007 (358 PAs): .272/.380/.780
            Greg Dobbs 2008 (240 PAs): .301/.333/.827

            That’s what I mean when I say “peak Greg Dobbs.” I think we would all be happy if he ended up with something like Dobbs’ 2007 slash line and would be over the moon with his 2008, although of course in both of those years Dobbs was a part time player so it’s not entirely a fair comparison. I don’t mean to denigrate Asche at all, I think what I was trying to say is that he might have a future as a guy who plays 130-140 games a year at different positions and as a pinch hitter in high leverage situations. Provided, of course, that he has enough arm for the outfield.

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            1. Dobbs hit .272 / .330 / .451 in 2007, but CBP and the NL were both different in 2007 than in 2014. Dobbs’ line was only a 95 wRC+, while Asche this year has a 116 wRC+ despite a similar OPS (higher OBP, lower SLG).

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            2. Here’s another way to put it: In 2007 the average MLB left fielder has an .800 OPS. So far this year it is .736.

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    2. Agreed. He’s a pretty good runner and has shown he can charge a ball very well, which would make you think his range would be good – but so far it isn’t. He also makes a lot of miscues, which will probably improve at least somewhat. For Asche, the hope is that he works hard enough and has sufficient ability to become average and excels on offense. Also, even if you think Franco is coming along, there is another reason not to move Asche until necessary – and that’s because I don’t think Franco will be at third for more than a couple of years – I think he’s the Phillies first baseman of the future. I’m not saying that’s optimal, but I think his size and speed dictates that staying at third long term may be difficult – Asche might then slide back to third. But I sure don’t want to trade Asche – I love this guy and, yes, he’s entertaining to watch.

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  13. Can I add a slightly cranky comment about fielding percentage?

    Let’s pretend for a minute that there are no advanced metrics, and we can only rely upon subjective measures and the one “traditional” fielding metric that people really use – fielding percentage.,

    Fielding percentage plays only a very small role in the “traditional” evaluation of defense. The casual fan often thinks otherwise, partly because it is so hard for a non-expert to properly evaluate defense, and partly because of media driven narratives by lazy sportscasters and journalists. But a professional coach, scout, or manager, using “traditional” evaluation methods, would NEVER rely upon fielding percentage as a primary tool to evaluate defense.

    Now, it COULD BE that defensive metrics don’t adequately capture Asche’s range at third base. I don’t think it’s likely that the metrics are so far off that Asche is “average or better” as some have asserted, but maybe is isn’t that far below average. Though remember we have Sandberg’s subjective opinion as well. AND he might get better.

    BUT any argument of the form “his fielding percentage is okay, therefore he is fine” is a really bad argument. There are PLENTY of players who are lousy defenders but have a decent fielding percentage. Range is much more important than fielding percentage. And you don’t need fancy metrics to prove that – it’s been true, and recognized, for decades. The difference between the best and worst defensive third basemen in fielding percentage is maybe a dozen errors, The difference between the best and worst third basemen in range is probably 5 dozen fewer base runners.

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    1. How do you measure range?
      Is it the length of the ‘dive’, or is it comfortably fielding the ball on two feet?

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      1. I don’t know the formula, but it’s based upon how many plays you actually make. I have no idea how it’s adjusted for how many GBs your pitchers give up a game, how many of those are to the left side of the IF, how much range your SS has, etc.

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      2. There are different metrics, but I am pretty sure that all of them follow the general form of plays made divided by.balls hit in the fielder’s “zone.”

        Now, obviously the latter is potentially somewhat subjective, BUT none of the adjustments mentioned by allentown are necessary, because the metrics are all based on actual play by play data. That is, we are not estimating the number of balls hit in the third baseman’s zone, we are counting them. Those adjustments would be needed only if we were estimating rather than counting.

        Only in the past few years has data that is detailed enough been available to do this. And the subjectively factor is reduced by using the same standards for all players.

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        1. To give you some specifics, using one metric, the league leader this year among third basemen is Donaldson, who makes 82.9% of possible plays in his zone. Asche is the worst qualifying third baseman, with 63.4%. That’s a difference, over a quarter season, of about 14 plays. That’s a lot.

          As I said, I’m assuming that Asche isn’t really THAT bad. But I have enough faith in the data that I believe is is well below average.

          As I understand it, that system separately counts plays made out of the zone. That gives Donaldson a further edge (about 6 more plays than Asche, but that’s deceptive as he has played more than Asche).

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          1. Well, if you go by the theory that, in terms of player productivity, a hit saved (defensively) is identical to a hit produced (offensively), that’s the difference of 56 hits over the course of a year, or over one hundred points of batting average. It’s a HUGE difference.

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            1. As odd as it might sound, Asche might end up faring better at second if he can work at it and shore up the misplays. Third base is a reaction time position (which is why the greatest fielding third baseman ever – Brooks Robinson – was able to be so good even though he had average speed, at best), whereas second is more about speed and positioning. The hope is that Asche could become a poor man’s Chase Utley, or a rich man’s Daniel Murphy – a nice 3-5 WAR player who produces runs and wins games.

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            2. Asche at second. Dan Uggla has made a very productive career as a mediocre fielding, but a hitting second baseman.

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          2. Isn’t positioning a large part of this, especially at 3B? From what I’ve seen, Asche is often up close to the grass, and may have less reaction time than someone who plays a couple steps back?

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          3. 14 plays in a quarter seasons is about 9 per month. Since a player gets around 100 ABs per month, that’s 90 points of batting average. So the difference between Donaldson and Asche’s defense is about the same as the difference between a guy hitting .300 and a guy hitting .210.

            Just to put it into (rough) perspective.

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  14. By the way, for what it’s worth, I was following the Lehigh game today on Gameday. Ruf is bouncing back to life – call up sure to follow soon. And Giles had a good day. It looks like he was wild from the box score (2 walks), but if Gameday is accurate, he was actually hitting his spots and getting squeezed. He actually pitched quite well and worked out of the jam he was not entirely responsible for creating. No runs.

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    1. he faced 8 batters, how can you say he isn’t responsible for creating that situation? lucky

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      1. My point is that I think he was being squeezed by the ump in a big walk – walks that should have been strikeouts – and his performance was better than it looked.

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    1. His bonus is a sunk cost, he’s not taking playing time from anyone, and AA teams need backups too. Wish him well–by all accounts he worked hard to develop what was always a raw package of tools and he didn’t quite make it. His $1.38 million signing bonus works out to around $230,000 a season he’s been in the minors–a good real-world salary, but not exactly retire-to-Bermuda money. The Phillies also paid for 8 semesters at Vanderbilt under the contract–here’s hoping he kept up with his homework. Vandy is a good school.

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      1. He’s hitting .138 – clearly he’s taking AB’s away from SOMEONE. If .138 @ AA is the best we can do, then we have no business even being here.

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      2. He seems like a good guy – I hope he really does attend Vandy.

        Sometimes these guys really do take their scholarship money. I’ve heard nothing but good things about Hewitt as a person and I wish him great success in the future. He’s such a good athlete that I wonder if he could play another Division I sport.

        Time to get on with your life and join the rest of us stiffs, Anthony. You tried your best and good for you.

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  16. One of the oddest things about Asche this year is his lefty-righty splits. .233 BA against righties and .333 against lefties. This is unusual for a left-handed hitter. Sample size may play a role, however, the Phillies radio announcers seemed to think that he shows more patience against southpaws.

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