General Discussion – Week of 5-19-2014 – Very Realistic Trades Edition

Weekly Discussion

Marlins and Dodgers this week, starting Tuesday. The Phillies should probably trade for Yasiel Puig or Giancarlo Stanton. Or both, right? Howard for Puig because The Dodgers have plenty of money to pay Howard, and Brown for Stanton because, uh, Brown will be cheaper in the next couple years and The Marlins don’t have any money to pay players. They need to save their money to make free agent deals with weak no-trade clauses.

Discuss.

69 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 5-19-2014 – Very Realistic Trades Edition”

  1. I could see Puig being moved evntually. Probably not this year but I could see Mattingly and some of the players growing tired of his fundamental lapses and just trading him. As for Stanton, I’m not as sure as I was a year ago. He’s still under team control for 2 more years after this one. The Marlins will throw money at players. They haven’t been shy about that. They just usually trade them a year or 2 later.

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  2. May be another reach but how about utley and lee waiving their no trade clauses-Baltimore wanting to make a splash to compete against the big guys and giving up Bundy. Maybe finally a Lee for a profar trade will finally materialize

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  3. Not sure Texas would do that…Lee has always struggled in Arlington, so while I am sure that organization respects him and knows he is a great pitcher, he just might not be a fit for them.

    I wanted to Phillies to offer Utley to LAD last year for Joc Pederson…no clue if they ever actually considered that or not, but it would have been a pretty good trade for both teams.

    If we want to look at teams that hypothetically could be in contention come July and could use an arm, you have to look at:

    Nats (would they ever trade in teh division)
    Reds
    Brewers
    Dodgers
    Angels
    Mariners??? Would they think Lee could propel them?
    Would Tampa think they could put together a run with a guy like Lee?
    Yanks
    Blue Jays
    Royals

    Those are the teams thatI could see saying “were going for it” and making a trade for someone like Lee.

    Yanks are probaby going to go hard after Samardzjia (spelling?)…Would you guys agree that this is more or less a list of teams that could have him on their shopping list?

    Of those teams, I could see the royals and maybe the jays really wanting to makea push. Could we get anything fromt eh Angels (Trout for Lee straight up!!! Bring Trout home!)

    Kidding obviously but i feel like those are the places to start looking for intriguing guys.

    Maybe they could get a top 75 prosepct for Burnett as well

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  4. what is really interesting is that for all of our flaws, we are only 3 games out of a wild card. heck, i actually believe that if we had a shut down 8th inning reliever, we would be in first place in the NL East. we are hard on our team, but most teams have real holes too. the braves have the worst offense in all of baseball. you think we have holes in our lineup, those guys have some absolutely horrible hitters at big, big contracts. their big difference is in the pen and defense.

    that being said, i don’t think we will have enough be buyers. i could see us selling, but i doubt it would be a fire sale.

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    1. You’re right that we’re not that terrible, but the question is, where can we realistically hope to get better? There’s nothing coming up from the farm anytime soon, and I think Amaro isn’t dumb enough to be trading our small supply of prospects for help. Dom Brown is an obvious pick to turn it around, and maybe Revere, but that’s it; but Utley isn’t going to keep hitting .338, so that’s a wash. And of course, we’ve been remarkably healthy for such an old team. At some point, Chooch or Rollins or Utley or Lee or Burnett goes on the DL…

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  5. I just hope if Phils trade Lee he fetches more than Carrasco, Smoak, or Gillies as main pieces of trade.

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  6. In all seriousness, Im not sure Lees value is what most of us think it is. By that I mean getting at least 1 elite level prospect back like a Profar or Bundy. I remember last year at the trade deadline the only team the Phils had any sort of trade discussions for Lee with was Boston. According to Gammons, they viewed him more as a fallback if they didnt get Peavy. Even at that he said they weren’t gonna put Bogarts, Bradley or Owens in a deal. As good as Lee is ur dealing with him making 25 mill still. A tough pill for any team to swallow.
    As for Utley, I think he would absolutely have value. He has a very reasonable contract and seems to be over his knee issues. Plus, teams probably like his attitude and the way he plays the game. I think Utley would bring u back at least 1 very good prospect. Not sure if LA would still want him with Gordon playing so well and Guerrero in minors, though.

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    1. You’re right about Lee’s value. I kind of threw out there a best case of a prospect in the 40 to 60 range, but looking at the actual prospects in that range, most of them are not from contending organizations. You have Jackie Bradley, but the Sox aren’t going to trade him, and of course Boegarts is a fantasy. Lee and Biddle and Franco and Brown wouldn’t get you Boegarts.

      I think Utley is a more attractive trade candidate this season than he was last season. But he wasn’t getting you Pederson last year, and certainly won’t this year given lack of fit with LA.

      I absolutely think Amaro needs to listen to offers, but I expect if either player is traded, the deals will not be popular given the likely/realistic return.

      Both of them could get top 100 prospects in return, but probably back end of the top 100. No one else is going to get a top 100 prospect return, but guys like Papelbon,and Burkett should be shopped anyway.

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      1. On that note, I’m not sure anyone has noticed but . . . Lee’s velocity is down about 2-3 MPH on his fastball. He used to sit 89-93, touching 94 and sometimes 95. Now, he sits 89-91 and touches 92. It’s a small difference and he’s still a very good pitcher without that extra velocity, but unless he regains the speed or perfects another pitch, he’s gone from being an ace to a 2. A damned good 2, but a 2 nonetheless.

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        1. Noticed the first mph drop last year. He might be good enough command-wise for it to not matter too much, but I also file this away in the category of maybe they should really think of trading him this year, especially with much less contract to deal with.

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        2. Didn’t notice it, but it doesn’t surprise me. He’s gonna be 36 this year. Even when he re-signed in 2010, I had mixed feelings about it: He was worth it, for sure, but I wasn’t a fan of the length of it (mostly knowing his age when it’d end. No way to know when he’d turn to crap)

          Fortunately he hasn’t yet, but I’ll shut up about it now.

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        3. Velocity does not determine if you are an ace. Cliff Lee is an ace on almost every team. There are only a handful of pitchers better than him. Saying he is not an ace because of a temporary dip in velo is idiotic.

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          1. With all due respect, that’s a ridiculous assertion. Relative velocity absolutely does determine whether or not you can be an ace for most pitchers, including Cliff Lee. A loss of velocity can be the difference between a pitcher being an ace and anything lower on the spectrum. Losing 3-4 MPH on his fastball was the difference between Roy Halladay being an ace and being a borderline 5. Unless you throw a knuckleball, velocity matters. It matters A LOT. Cliff Lee at 91–95 is unhittable. Cliff Lee at 89-91 is very good, but not dominant.

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            1. And, by the way, a “2” is a term of art. Many teams do not have a true ace and so a solid “2” (which is what Lee is right now), would be the number one guy on their staff. I didn’t say he sucked, I said he was a very good 2 -which is precisely what he is right now. If his velocity ticks up and or he does something differently then he might be in ace territory again, but true aces don’t allow hits at the rate he has allowed them this year. And, trust me, I’m the biggest Cliff Lee fan around – if anyone can find another way to succeed or bounce back, it’s probably Lee.

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            2. with all due respect, results determine if you are a #1, not velocity. also, your Halladay example is not a good counter argument. Halladay lost 6-8 mph AND he also lost his control. Lee lost a 1-2 mph for a few games and was never a power pitcher. he is a control pitcher with several plus off speed pitches. he keeps hitters off balance because he knows how to pitch.

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            3. I agree with your assertion that (in the long run anyway), results determine if you are an ace. Cliff Lee’s results are those of a #2 this year, not an ace. You have to do better than that. Halladay didn’t lose 6-8 MPH – he lost 3-4 MPH (from 92-94 down to 88-90) and he didn’t just lose his control – he had to be extra fine with his control because he lost his velocity and couldn’t pound the strike zone the way he could when his velocity was higher. It is all interconnected.

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      2. I’d be shocked if Utley doesn’t retire a Phillie. The time to let him go, if the team intended to do that, would have been last season. I think that contract was signed with the knowledge that it could end up being a long few seasons for the organization, and in the absence of an unexpected turnaround, they’re going to need something to bring fans out to the ballpark. A goodbye tour for Utley would be one possible draw. And we know that David Montgomery is pretty sentimental about this sort of thing.

        Lee on the other hand seems like a very possible trade candidate. But if the NL East stays bunched like this, I doubt they’ll trade anyone.

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      3. Why do you keep call him “Burkett”? You’ve done this more then once and I don’t know why but it’s annoying me.

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        1. You’ll recall that Burnett and Beckett pitched in the same rotation a few years ago. “Burkett” is a reference to either one or both as a twosome. I thought that was common knowledge.

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      4. Trading Lee, Franco and Biddle for Boegarts would be beyond idiotic for the Phillies. You guys lose all perspective on prospects. Obsurd.

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        1. Of course it would. I think you missed my point. Boston isn’t trading Bogearts, and they ESPECIALLY aren’t trading him for Lee, as someone upthread suggested.

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        2. Point is, OF COURSE that would be an overpay. But for a guy like Bogaerts, you would have to overpay. Guys like that aren’t usually traded. When they are, the receiving team has to overpay. Exceptions to that are (a) mostly apparent rather than real, or (b) involve franchises with a … lesser appreciation of the value of prospects than held by Boston.

          Of course further complicating this is that Boston doesn’t really need prospects OR older veterans. If they make a big trade, it’s going to be for a guy like Stanton, a controllable star in his prime.

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  7. Yeah, GM’s have become much less likely to make godfather deals like that…the last one was actually probably the Phillies in the Pence deal. The all time great was the package that Atlanta sent to Texas for Texeira, but that won’t happen anymore.

    For Lee, I agree, you say to a contender, We want your TOP prospect and a second prospect. If you want him, great, if not, its whatever. I do want to explore trade options, but I also won’t just give him away. I actually really respected that the phillies werent down to listen to the Red Sox offer of a bunch of B and C level prospects last year.

    Utley should definitley have value. LAD was a great fit last year, but maybe not this year because of how well Gordon is playing. Baltimore needs a second basemen. Lee and utley for Gausman/Bundy/Schoop!!!! Do it!!!! Nah make them throw in Machado too!

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  8. Not sure I agree totally with your list of teams Lee would be willing to go to. I think it is an extremely short list: Cardinals, Tigers he surely would. Possibly the Dodgers or Angels. I guess it depends on who is where and how they are playing.

    It won’t be an easy decision that is for sure especially if Brown and Asche’s production start to normalize.

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  9. Does anybody know if the Phillies are in on Daniel Carbonell, the supposed 5-tool Cuban outfielder? Phillies love tools… MLBtraderumors says it’s down to 5 teams — Mariners, Yankees and 3 others. Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, and Twins not likely.

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  10. Unless the Phillies completely implode over the next month I don’t see them being sellers. Their roster is set to win now even with their obvious flaws. Moving Lee for a couple of b-level prospects, which is what they would get in return, makes no sense for the team as it’s built. I also highly doubt that Utley is going to waive his no-trade rights since he just negotiated them as part of his current deal.

    Rollins has already said he’s not going anywhere (10-5 rights) and Howard’s contract isn’t being moved. Maybe Byrd or Ruiz get you a bullpen arm in return but that’s about it.

    As I see it, there are only two options with this team; A)blow it up completely or b) hang around the .500 mark and hope to get hot at the right time. I don’t see them blowing it up so option B is more likely.

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    1. Regarding your first point, perhaps. But if Atlanta starts creating some real separation, along with one or two of the real – err, other – WC contenders, then the Phillies might be sellers even if they don’t implode.

      As for your last point, I don’t agree. There’s a difference between a 90 loss team and a 110 loss team. Given the number of still reasonably productive players without much in the way of trade value, and lack of realistic replacements, I think a strategy of trading a couple of the guys with the most trade value is plausible. It might not happen, there are arguments against it, but deciding to (for example) trade Lee for a good prospect doesn’t make the case for trading Ruiz for scraps more attractive.

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  11. Can we all at least agree that this team is not even a serious (2nd) wild card contender?

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    1. That’s a silly question, they’re only 3 1/2 games out with no other perfect teams either.

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      1. Can you explain why it’s a silly question? Where is the improvement coming from? IMO, all of our key pieces are either producing at or above what is expected of them. If you had a realistic outlook, outside of Brown, is anyone really disappointing?
        Yes, all teams have holes. But they also have something called talent and are dealing with injuries. Let’s all be honest with ourselves here. Is Ken Giles really going to save our season? Look at the other teams close to us in the standings. It is beyond ridiculous to think that we have a chance over the Cardinals, Nationals, Dodgers, or even the Reds and maybe the Rockies. It’s time to realize that the rebuilding process is well overdue. You can look at other teams’ holes, but in comparison, none are as problematic as ours.

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        1. I’m not saying they’ll win the wild card, only that its too early to say they won’t. You want improvement? How about the fact that Hamels has only 1 win and didn’t start until May? How about the fact that Adams has surprisingly looked good and he too started late? How about the fact that some combination of a corrected Defratus, a healthy Martin and Giles will all be available? How about the fact that Asche has always been a slow starter and he looks like he’s figuring it out? How about the fact that I don’t think Dom Brown is a 220 hitter and he will pick it up? I also look for Ruf to be up soon to help the bench. I also expect Revere to get hot and get back over 300. Only Chase has done great and will retreat to the mean, the other veterans are on a normal pace.

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          1. It’s sort of a moot point, since it’s not like there’s any point in throwing in the towel now – the trade market won’t heat up for a while.

            But the other side of the coin:

            -Byrd, Ruiz, and Rollins are all IMO regression candidates to some extent, in addition to Utley,
            -the team has had good luck in terms of injuries; that may not continue, and
            -It’s likely that a couple of teams will start to pull away in the wild card race; the current mediocrity of most of the league is IMO unlikely to continue, at least to the same extent.

            IMO it would take a lot of good luck for them to stay ion the wild card race. Fangraphs has them with a 7.4% chance of making the playoffs, and that sounds about right to me.

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            1. Normally I would agree with that statement…..and there will be teams pulling away in the wild card race, but in the NL East, the Nats are incurring too many key injuries, Harper and Zimm.,–latest today with Gio Gonzalez with the treaded shoulder inflammation. The Braves swing and miss too much and their key pitchers are out and Harang may regress. And then there is the Marlins losing Jose Fern. for the season.
              My goodness …..things are falling in place for the Phillies to grasp the division ring…..they just need to do it.

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      2. The team is in the approx same position it was in from last year. With healthier bodies so far this year

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    2. I think they have a better chance of winning their division then a wild card. I am not selling and I would keep playing Asche, Brown and Revere 95% of the time.

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      1. I don’t think I make a commitment now to playing Revere that much, but agree on Brown and Asche. Asche has to approach being average in the field, but he could turn out to be one hell of an offensive player, especially if the plate discipline is real. Brown seems close, but who the hell knows. The problem with Revere is that we just don’t know if he has the ability to be an above average player. He does so many important things poorly (hit for power, get on base by walk, throw), that he has do so several things almost flawlessly to be a valuable player.

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        1. catch….AsSche will be just fine in the field.
          He mayl never be a Scott Rolen or a Mike Schimdt, but he will be far from being a Ty Wiggy.

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      2. Just don’t get the love for revere, His biggest asset is speed, and he doesn’t walk, and steal bases like a guy with that speed should. I don’t like him in the outfield, he cant field and has a candy arm, really he is a guy on a team, playing for eighth or ninth inning as a pitch runner.

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  12. I would never move lee for the kind of prospect people on here think he would bring, I rather keep him then make a stupid move , like the schilling trade. the first lee trade, The only reason they would move him for nothing of real value is if they want to dump salary. You never know imo how desperate a team can be to win a championship.

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  13. From my perspective, the Phillies are trying to rebuild while fielding a team with a “chance” to make the playoffs. For them, “rebuilding” is not trading away their prospects to fill holes. The last of the big non-Hamels contracts end two years after this season. Argue over the propriety of the deals all you want, but the reality is that they are in place. They are not going to bench Howard, Utley, Rollins, Chooch etc and they are all hard or impossible to trade for varying reasons. They are going to play Asche and Brown and Byrd most days. So, we are left with one outfield spot opening. The Phils can’t find anyone to fill that spot and would be hard pressed to fill any of the other spots if an injury need were to arise. Really, the old guard is not blocking talent and thwarting a rebuild. Maybe Ruff who has been hurt, at first, but who else? Franco at first next year might be an option if not for Howard. The cupboard is bare in the minors when we talk of ML quality and ready replacements. To me, that is what is stopping a real rebuild. If the Phils actually had talent in the minors, they would have gone to younger options. Unfortunately, there is little to no replacement talent.

    With the above in mind, unless we can get a top 50 (maybe75) prospect, I would not bother trading Lee. What good is it? He is not keeping anyone from coming up. The Phils have the money and if we have the other old heads out there, why not have a pitcher of his quality on our team? At least, we can dream that they will get two more relievers in the offseason and try it again next year. Lee will hopefully stil have similar value next year if a trade is the best route.

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  14. Maybe I am misreading, but there seems to be a growing consensus above the Brown deserves a chance to turn things around, but Revere doesn’t. The unstated assumption underlying that is that Brown can be expected to be better than Revere going forward.

    I have been a long time supporter of Brown, and at best lukewarm and increasingly skeptical about Revere, but one can make a very strong case, looking at the whole picture, hitting, base running, defense and positional value, that Revere is a the better player this season and on a career basis. Given those facts, and aging profiles, I’m not sure why Brown should be expected to be be better going forward.

    I would let Brown keep playing, if for not other reason than lack of reasonable options. But the same can be said for Revere. I mean, Mayberry? Seriously? Even when Ruf returns, Ruf and Brown at the corners and Byrd in center field is not an acceptable major league outfield defensively.

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    1. Quite simply, Revere has NO tools other than speed, and he doesn’t even use it. He’s useless. Not even comparing to Brown, just telling how it is.

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      1. First of all, untrue. He has very good contact skills.

        As for the speed, he definitely uses it on the base paths. He also uses it in the OF; it’s why he is a mediocre defender rather than a poor one.

        Brown is a better hitter, though not MUCH better. Revere is more valuable on the base paths, defensively, and has more positional value.

        Now, the counter arguments are two: (1) Brown 2013 has significantly more value as a hitter than Revere will ever have, perhaps enough to outweigh Revere’s advantages, and (2) Brown has a higher ceiling. But 2013 looks like a career year for him, and the ceiling is not likely to be reached.

        This may be damning Revere with faint praise – I’m (almost) as disillusioned with him as anyone is. But given the options, I can’t see a rational reason to sit Revere (not saying the recent benching was wrong, but a permanent benching would be). If anything, with Ruf’s return there will be a more compelling argument to sit Brown, though I wouldn’t advocate that either.

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        1. Larry, you could end up being right about Brown, but I believe he has a substantially higher ceiling than Revere (who I actually don’t dislike, I would just prefer to take a wait and see approach with him). Brown is one of these guys who may take years to reach his ceiling, but I think the ability is there, although I’m a bit concerned that while he is improving on the fielding “eye test” the metrics are not really improving. But I think, with Brown, if you don’t play him fairly regularly, he’s got virtually no shot at reaching that potential. I think Brown needs superb hitting instruction or the “right” hitting instructor and I’m not sure he’s getting that, just as I’m fairly confident the same is true of our myriad of struggling young pitchers with good arms, especially in AAA (from what I can see, Ray Burris sucks as a pitching coach).

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          1. I think things may work themselves out if you slide Revere to the #8 or 9 slot in the line-up when he plays. With Jimmy hitting for power and now getting on base as he never has before, he’s a superior leadoff hitter to Revere. Chooch is a very nice #2, although he is a base clogger, he has great discipline and contact skills.

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            1. I am too confused. moving him to 8th with his bad obp
              ,and lack of power, no arm and bad routes to balls, I guess the argument is. this we have no one better, which is true but really sad, to want him to play is just sad imo.

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          2. That’s the best argument to make for him – I am just increasingly not buying it. After 1194 PA, he is exactly an average major league hitter – which, for a poor defensive outfielder who doesn’t add base running value, is not acceptable.

            But just to play contrarian and undercut my own argument, I will note that his defensive metrics so far this season ARE a little improved, albeit still below average. Unfortunately he is 169th out of 176 qualified hitters.

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          3. Years to hit his ceiling is a problem. You get to suffer through not so good performance for years, then he has a good year and wants a big deal or becomes a FA. The 2013 Brown is perfectly fine. This year’s version isn’t. His value as a player is 110% in his bat, because the bat has to overcome defensive deficiencies. If the bat isn’t plus, that is a serious problem. It’s not all Brown’s fault. The Phillies have mishandled his development, but at some point he needs to right himself.

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    2. I don’t even know what to say about Brown vs Revere. They are both having awful years. Both have gotten worse as April has rolled into May. Both are left handed bats who have done okay against LHP this season and can’t hit a lick against RHP. Frankly, neither is playing remotely to the level to be expected for an MLB starting OF and the number of 2014 AB is no longer trivial.

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  15. One of the reasons things are so close is that the other teams in the NL East have lost some big time pitchers and players to the DL while the Phils have probably been the healthiest to date. If the Phils starting rotation stays healthy, another key injury to Atlanta and Washington could keep the Phils right there into September.

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  16. Perhaps Ruben will be moving upstairs sooner then later.
    Dave Montgomery had surgery yesterday for cancer of the jaw and being 68-years old, may decide after this year to step down or give it one more year.
    Ruben will be in line for the President’s job as he currently sits as the Sr VP of Operations.
    That means he may be looking for another GM to succeed him, unless Scott Proefrock takes the job. But he also has battled cancer and may not want the stress of the position as the main guy.
    I guess signs point to another tenure with Ed Wade.

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  18. I was thinking about draft, so many want a top line pitcher, which is great, but over the last couple of seasons. I watch Harvey pitch for the mets and really enjoyed how good he was, and he is hurt, the orioles lose there top guy who look like a really good pitcher, marlins lose Fernandez who I believe was great, maybe the best pitcher beside Kershaw. imo. so many young guys going down, pitchers imo are so overuse in high school and college, I saw the other day a high school kid threw 176 pitches, what were they thinking?

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    1. Nobody really knows yet why there are so many more elbow injuries than there used to be (I think everybody acknowledges that this injury occurs more frequently now than ever before). Folks seem to think it might be related to year-round training and throwing programs. In the old days, even the best players stopped playing baseball in the summer and played football and other sports before getting back to baseball in the late part of the winter or spring. There might be something to that. Also, you have to wonder if they can develop programs to improve the strength and flexibility of the ulnar tendon.

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      1. Shoulder strengthening can be done by the Throwers10 Program.
        Madson did something similar in Arizona in the off-season about 5/6 years ago and came back upping his velo by about 2/3 MPH.
        But alas, he fell vicim to elbow issues as a free agent.

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    2. Leo Malzone of the Braves had an interesting aspect for keeping pitchers from elbow/shoulder ailments.
      Throw all the time….even in the off-season.
      Just don’t ‘air it out’

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  20. For those on the Twitter… “High Heat Stats MLB” is having a Phillies themed tweet day. Many interesting tweets in there. For instance: On 5/14/1922, the Phillies all time record was 2827 and 2827. They then lost 12 straight and haven’t been at .500 since.

    many more out there should you be interested in following

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  22. Glad to see Ruf is starting tonight in LF and faces Kershaw.
    Hernandez at third….Asche doesn;t need to be embarrassed by the Cy Young guy…though Asche’s splits are better vs lefties then righties.
    And I guess this means Dom Brown heads down to LHV tomorrow, as Buchanan takes the mound.

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  23. Has anyone heard any updates on Adam Morgan? Last I recall he was to start rehabbing in February. Perhaps Jim has seen him in Clearwater

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