General Discussion – Week of 5-12-2014 – Mike Trout Edition

Weekly Discussion

I forgot to post this Monday. Talk about Mike Trout, folks. He only went 1-5 last night. What a terrible disappointment he is to his family and friends. SHAME!

Discuss.

56 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 5-12-2014 – Mike Trout Edition”

  1. I was at game last night and that’s as electric as I’ve seen CBP since 2011. Of course, most of the fans were there to see Trout. So far he’s not letting his star power get to him. He was waving and smiling at people in the crowd all night. He even signed autos for about 10 min b4 game. It was a great night to be there. It’s ashame Asche lost that game for them.

    Like

  2. Fact is it is a lot of pressure to come home and play in front of the home town. Not to disregard that he had been slumping coming in but that is the ebb and flow of a 162 game season.

    More importantly for us is Asche’s struggles in the field and at the plate. More so inconsistency. Hopefully he can pull it together sooner rather than later. With all the strife in the NL East this team should be in the hunt for one of those WC’s.

    Like

  3. Biddle continues to work through his issues and evolve. He walked 4 batters today, which is the negative. The positive is that he seemed to be able to work through his issues and finish successfully – something he could not do last year when he got off track. He ended his day with 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB (again, not good), and 7 Ks. By the way, the Reading line-up without Joseph (injury), Dugan (injury), Hernandez (promoted) and Altherr (just not playing I believe), is brutal. It’s Cam Perkins against the world (and, not surprisingly, he’s losing). Why on earth is Anthony Hewitt still taking up a roster spot? He’s barely hitting .100 – it’s sad and pathetic. Put him out of his misery already and release him.

    Like

    1. Hewitt has certainly run his course with the organization. At this point he’s taking AB’s from ANYONE and needs to be released. It speaks volumes that someone like that is still getting reps in the OF at the AA level.

      Like

    3. If he had 4 walks against a AA lineup, that would be a lot more walks against a MLB lineup and that line would look vastly different.

      Like

    4. I think we have more important things to worry about than who our backup OFs in AA are (like Biddle’s continued wildness). I don’t see why anybody would be upset over Hewitt still being around aside from maybe the Peter Lavin fanclub.

      Like

  4. I have come to the conclusion that the Phils are just not good enough to compete this year. But not for the reasons that many pundits have said. Their age is not an issue, nor is Paps velocity. The lineup isn’t great, but I think Dom will come around and Asche will also improve. The issues that the Phils have are:
    1. Their bench is horrific.
    2. They don’t have consistent 7th/8th inning relievers.

    If their 7th/8th inning guys were lights out, I think we could compete. But those guys suck and I don’t think they have enough to trade and fill those gaps. But I don’t think that it makes Amaro’s moves this offseason have been wrong. If nothing else, Byrd will get us value in return.

    Like

    1. This was never a team that was likely to contend. It could have contended (still can, but doubtful) if everything went right. It didn’t.

      Now that said, if I was assigning causes of the failure to contend, it would be, in this order:

      (1) Failure of young talent to develop – Brown & Ashe especially, but basically EVERYONE under 30. I’d like to think this will get better, but it has to get a LOT better for the team to contend.
      (2) The injury and ineffectiveness of Hamels – though I think he’ll be fine going forward.
      (3) The bullpen in April. It’s actually been fine this month, Sunday’s implosion aside. Still a concern, but much less so than April would have led us to believe.

      I wouldn’t list the bench as a cause at all; see DMAR above.

      An optimist could point to likely improvements in all three areas going forward. Unfortunately, the other side of the coin is that some injuries/regression from the veterans is to be expected. So contention remains a long shot.

      Like

  5. Bullpen and bench problems are not isolated to Philadelphia. Take a look around the league depth is a big struggle for most teams even the beloved Cardinals are struggling with their bench.

    Bench should never be an issue if your starters are doing what they should and let’s face if CF is a problem as is the production from LF and 3B.

    Again at the very latest Giles will be up in June to try and sure up that 7/8 inning role if not sooner. As for improving the bench good luck with that.

    I love Byrd and would not be opposed to trading him but even I admit he doesn’t bring you much in return for the future. They have to consider a blockbuster type move. The energy is stale on this club and I’m afraid they have accepted losing.

    Papelbon was right a top to bottom reset button is probably necessary. And as much as I like RAJ I’m afraid he has no chance at being effective with so much of the old regime hanging around, Gillick, Green, Manuel Wade all these guys have to go so a fresh perspective can take hold.

    Chances of that happening 0

    Like

    1. Paps could be an attractive closer for a contender at the trade deadline.
      He is not a ‘rental’ in the truest sense, since he does have 2015 under contract.
      And if maintains his status production for the next two months a contender could be interested in him..
      And if the Phillies do pick up a percentage of his remaining contract it could be done.
      What does he bring you in return…your guess is good as mine!.

      Like

      1. Probably not much Romus as the overwhelming view on relievers around the league is you can make one out of a guy on your roster. I think the evidence was last season when the Tiggers needed a closer desperately and didn’t deal for one.

        Speaking of the Tigers I’m thinking we should take a page out of the Dombrowski book and bring Biddle up to work out of the bullpen in the same vein as Drew Smyley.

        Cripe does anyone realize Jesse is already over 500 IP in the minors. Just my opinion but that is an absurd amount of innings for a guy that projects to be a starter at the next level. I don’t much care that he still has things to work on. At this point he cannot be any worse than Bastardo.

        Like

        1. Someone taking the Papelbon contract and providing a middling prospect would be perfectly good compensation if the team is not contending. They need to find ways to start clearing up the balance sheet and create availability for new salary, much like the Red Sox did a few years ago.

          About 3 years ago I, and many others, wondered aloud – where is the next tier of prospects that will play here? How will they replace the aging core? There was no good answer in sight and it appears the underlying game plan was extraordinarily defective. I’m also really concerned about the organization’s talent development team. Why are all these relief pitchers with good arms not developing into capable major leaguers? I’m beyond concerned.

          Like

          1. Personally, if Ruben decided to do a quasi-Sam Hinkie renovation project with this team, it would not bother me in the least.
            i would be for it.

            Like

            1. I have been saying that, but people on here tend to think the Phillies wont do that. They want to keep attendance, well its not working and the attendance is down, trade deadline, I am moving pap, if I get a low minor league good prospect. lee, even though since 2012 he has 31 starts where he pitched 7 innings I believe they said without a getting a decisions. most in baseball, and Hamels has 27. brown for anything I can get, he cant hit a fastball, revere for a bag of donuts. Kendrick’s for nothing in return, maybe get a low a prospect for Byrd, for a pennant team, strip some salary. get some flexibility, but none of this will help, if Amaro is in charge imo.

              Like

          2. Yes, we asked that question 3 years ago. Looking honestly at the situation today, it is grimmer than we thought it was 3 years ago. That time is past and the pipeline looks worse. Where is all that help that was going to come surging up from the low minors?

            Like

        2. Yeah, Crawford certainly looks like a credible replenisher, but he’s down in low-A. Where are the guys who were down in low-A 3 years ago. I still think Franco is a replenisher, but he’s certainly hit a speed bump in AAA. The discussion was harkening back to all the talent we supposedly had in the low minors 3 years ago. Some of us said no, not so much there. I think the amount of talent which has moved up the system in the past 3 seasons has been even less than those of us considered severe pessimists expected to see. The best are Franco and Biddle. Biddle has been inconsistent and Franco is having SEVERE difficulty with the off-speed stuff. Beyond that? The big crop of relievers has disappointed. The pitching has pretty much faltered. Remember back then when we were saying the strength of the farm was in the arms? Maybe this time there really is a wealth of position players in the lower level of the farm, who will explode onto the scene three years from now. Maybe.

          Like

          1. ‘Where are the guys who were down in low-A 3 years ago’…three are in Houston, one is in Toronto, and one, more or less, catching with the Mets.

            Like

      2. I think it is untrue that being a ‘rental’ reduces a players’ deadline trade value. This was a big deal with RAJ, but the real reason was that he couldn’t take on current year salary and gave the trading team their salary relief in the next season. He didn’t even keep Pence for his full second season.

        For many teams, Paps is more valuable as a rental than he is with the lock-up commitment for 2015, which requires them to pay the guy $13 mill. Paps isn’t worth $13 mill. A team can find better value in the off-season. He and other players have deadline trade value simply because it isn’t the off-season and teams have a limited pool of players to tap to improve their team. Spending $13 mill on a reliever, at a time in the off-season when they don’t even know if they have put together a contender, don’t know if they’ll be decimated by injuries, don’t know if their alternative closer will be healthy and good is a lot more to bite off than taking on his salary for just 2 months, with a team that is playing well enough to make the post-season, but badly needs a closer. That he may be the best closer available at deadline time only increases his value. But the $13 mill for 2015 will be a drag.

        Like

        1. Rental does reduce the player’s value under the latest CBA. Teams may not want to make a QO to the player, especially if he didn’t work out for them in their quest for Holy Grail.
          Then they get no compensation when he bolts for free agency.

          Like

          1. They’re not allowed to make a QO under the new CBA if they haven’t had the guy for a full season — true. I don’t think this reduces the value. Nobody would make a QO to Paps, and without that, there is no comp when he leaves. His $13 mill is about QO cost and he just isn’t worth that. We’ve seen the market for comped FA take a hit. Would any team in its right mind give up a first or second round draft pick AND pay more than $13 mill to sign Paps. If he’s not getting multi-years at or better than $13 mill, then he just accepts the QO. Ouch! Oh, that’s right, we’re going to sustain that ouch next season, barring discovery of a greater fool.

            Like

            2. Allentown you might be right, but if a gm thinks that paps is the answer for this team to win a championship, why wouldn’t he do iit. I think there is a chance if pap is pitching lights out, most gm don’t care about losing a late draft choice for a pennant and world title, just my opinion.

              Like

  6. In the medium term the franchise is just hopeless, Don’t see any credible counter arguments.

    So what to do about it?

    (1) By all means make any trades where we can get back credible prospects. I don’t believe that there are going to be may such trades on offer.

    (2) That aside, once again, we are starting to get a whiff of the “dump the veterans regardless of return” kind of thinking. That’s more misplaced than ever:

    (a) “Freeing up money” doesn’t help. For what? They’ll have enough to pay their young talent, such as it is, and fill in some holes with low priced free agents. More and more the market for high priced free agents is crazy – and, while there are times a team should go that route regardless, for this franchise in this time signing a 32 year old to an 8 year, 160 million contract (for example) makes no sense

    (b) There are no prospects blocked. The upper minors are scarily devoid of prospects. The very few exceptions will get their chances when ready.

    (c) The lack of progress of the young players on the major league roster makes it glaringly apparent that, absent the old guys, this is a 120 loss team. People talk about tanking – the current assemblage, maybe not so much this year but soon, is going to be getting top 5 picks anyway. In MLB the difference between a #1 pick and a #5 pick is usually small. And you don’t need to lose 120 games to get a #1 pick.

    (d) Amaro.

    Do I have any alternative? No, I don’t. Franchises which are as devoid of prospects and young talent as the Phillies basically face several years of non-contention at best, regardless of what they do. There was a time when free agency was a possible way out of this trap. Those days are over.

    Like

  7. As for the young guys – just focusing on the position players. Note that I’m not suggesting “giving up” on these guys – only because we have no choice but to stick with them. Playing an AAA player who is unready or not as good doesn’t help the franchise.

    Brown – I’ve defended him for years. I’m done. His defense isn’t getting better, and, while apparently a hard worker, he lacks the ability to successfully adjust to major league pitchers. He’s barely a second division regular, if that.

    Asche – oy. When I said I hoped I was wrong about Asche, I meant in the OTHER direction. By all means give him the rest of the season to prove me wrong, but I’m about ready to give up.

    Revere – kind of liked him – when I thought he was a plus defender. He’s not. Sadly he is the BEST of these three guys, by a lot.

    Galvis – he’s a backup, no more.

    Like

    1. I’m not ready to give up on Brown or Asche, although I am concerned about Brown at this point. Asche, not as much.

      Asche has a .273 BABIP in spite of a high line drive rate, and so far this month is actually hitting really well. I know his defense is probably just as big of a concern right now, if not more so, but I’m hoping he’ll at least do better with the batted balls he gets to in the future.

      Like

      1. I hope you’re right about Asche. And you could be! Here’s my thinking, though. The most reasonably optimistic take regarding his offense – which he could reach, he has been better in May,even if most of that was concentrated in just a couple of games – would have been fine IF his defense was okay.

        But his defense doesn’t look okay. Modern metrics, subjective observation, you name it – his defense has been awful. He would have to well exceed any reasonable projection of his hitting in order to carry that defense.

        Like

  8. With the struggles of Revere and Gwynn Jr, is it time to start thinking about Tyson Gillies getting his shot to play CF? Gwynn looks more and more like a AAAA guy while Revere looks more like a really nice 4th OF.

    Has anyone seen Gillies play recently? What do the SABR guys think?

    Like

    1. I think he would be much worse than Revere, and somewhat worse than Gwynn. He’s not a major league player. Heck, I’d try Hernandez there before Gillies, and I think Hernandez would be substantially worse than Revere.

      Like

      1. And if someone wants to call me negative, I am. Sometimes negativity is the only rational response. But as is often the case, “just do something, anything,” isn’t always the correct response, if the options are even worse. Even aside from the lack of good options, Revere has been easily the best of the Phillies’ young position players. I realize that that isn’t saying much.

        Here’s the line of the Phillies’ under 30 players:

        .217/.270/.286

        http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=26,ts&rost=0&age=14,29&filter=&players=0

        Along with overall well below average defense. Base running is a tad above average (because of Revere), not enough to outweigh the bad defense. 2.1 WAR below replacement.

        Like

        1. My thoughts on freeing up money. I don’t want to free up money to sign a 32 old outfielder for 160 million, I am hoping it would be spent in the Latin market, and the draft, Maybe we don’t have the guys like last years draft who did not sign, maybe we can get some higher profile guys in the Latin market, screw the commissioner, just like the Yankees are doing. I might be wrong but I don’t trust Ruben and his scouts, who scouted revere?? and said he could handled center field, never understood the nix signing spending a million dollars on a guy who cant hit, but can field, galvis should have been the player not nix, wasted money.. who recommend Durbin to Ruben. There are other example, but the point. Ruben and the current scouts lack the knowledge imo to get us back,. The lack of bullpen and starters in the minors is alarming. The phillies if I am not wrong spent a draft on bullpen guys, college arms, and maybe it will change, but only one guy is on the team and he is not doing anything special right now at 27, look at the bullpen, how bad a job Ruben has done, I saw someone on here say. look at st Louis. do we now look for a bad bullpen and saw, well we are better than them. no we should look at a good team like Atlanta who comes up with young arms, in spite of injuries, and a shorter amount to spend. I really believe almost any team in baseball, who gave away what Ruben did in young talent, in the pence trade and others and found no way to fill those prospects, would be fired, but that’s my opinion .I also blame not just ruben but gillick on this one, why didn’t they go to owners and convince them that without first round draft choice and lower round choice, when they were good, we must increase our spending in Latin market, to get talent , really don’t understand that one and never will.

          Like

          1. Couple things here. I don’t agree with the spend more in LA point – more on that in a minute – but am not sure why this is getting down voted. It’s not an unreasonable point. Maybe because some people assume (wrongly IMO, I think they are not the same person) that rocco is roccom?

            On the substance – IMO the Phillies’ spending strategy in LA has nothing to do with the major league payroll. It seems clear that they want to abide by the rules & support the commissioner. Agree or disagree with that, freeing up money by reducing major league salaries won’t change that.

            Of course the Yankees, and other teams using similar strategies DO pay a penalty – under the current rules you can’t spend like crazy without consequences. Obviously they have determined that they are better off on balance flouting the rules. Maybe they are right – if so, the rules should be changed. But if you hope that the Phillies to go that route … you’re hoping for something that has no chance of happening.

            Like

            1. I AM sorry for the missing letter to confuse people. I know they wont change there ways in Latin market. but it was just wishful thinking on my part. I was hoping they would see the benefits of that market for talent, but I know its a dream.I cant see how intelligent baseball people, didn’t see that when they didn’t have first round draft choice for signing free agents, and low choices in some years.. like the year they lost there first two choices and were left with moss, cant believe there was better Latin talent to take, How do people spend 180 million at major league level and not invest in draft and other markets for talent, which they would control at cheap contracts for years, and replace aging players like howard with a Singleton at cheaper salary. I know to do this you must have faith in your scouts. like the cardinals letting a great player like albert p walk, and still go and win.

              Like

            2. rocco………..BUT they have changed their ways in the LA market. Since Tocci, in 2011, the Phillies have went out every year and garnished one or two of the best 20 international Prsopects according to MLB.com.
              And I might add, paid the approriate dollars for the players
              Don’t you think position players like Grullon, Pujols, Encarnacion,,Tocci and even Bryan Martelo at 250K guy, are worthwhile investments?
              Then there was MAG , the Cuban pitcher.
              The Phillies have made an effort to get more involved with the top talent in that market.

              Like

        2. The Under 30 Crew:
          Asche is still too new to the majors to evaluate appropriately.
          Dom Brown, otoh, is struggling too much to remain in the lineup , especially against lefties, when Ruf gets called up he probably will be platooned with Brown in LF.

          Like

          1. Look, I hope I’m wrong about Asche. You certainly have a point about his hitting, which is already showing signs of improvement, but as I said what concerns me is more his defense. That’s not really a sample size issue – I mean, it is if you rely solely upon the metrics, but even apart from that he has just looked awful out there. Yeah, young players can improve their defense, but he has a LONG way to go just to be adequate

            Like

            1. That said, I would definitely give him the rest of the year as a major league regular to get sorted out.

              Like

          2. Now I have read reports that Byrd could go to CF and Brown/Ruf manning RF or LF. Dom Brown needs to find his stroke.

            Like

  9. I’m not big on knee jerk reactions either but the writing is on the wall. Burnett is not going to hold up through the entire season with this hernia at least I don’t think he is which blows up the whole plan.

    I’m thinking they were thinking they could hedge their bets this season. They would either catch fire with this group and be in the hunt or they would be out of it and have nice chips to move to the teams that thought they were right there.

    They are in a tough spot because the rest of the east is pretty beat up. I’m sure they are thinking they can take the east if they can sure up a few spots in the pen and get Brown and Asche going again.

    I’m talking to Cliff and asking him where he is willing to go. He is still your best asset and if he gets you at least one blue chip star you are looking for you pull the trigger.

    At this stage you don’t go for quantity you go for quality.

    Like

    1. Rangers have a stacked farm system and probably would want him back at some point. The AL West is tough.

      Like

      1. Romus I just wonder if for lee we can get some value, my dream would be a outfielder with power potential and a young lefthander pitcher or right, maybe a good A ball prospect . thanks didn’t realize they have spent a lot in Latin market. I thought I read the yankess were in on the top Latin players, and no mention of the Phillies getting in on them. someone I thought posted it about a week ago. imo a 250 thousand guy isn’t a top prospect, it doesn’t mean he wont be a good player, but the better guys tend to sign for more in most case, even though the guy the pirates got Polanco only sign for one hundred and twenty five thousand so you can get great prospect cheaper, in some cases,

        Like

    2. To be clear, I agree about Lee being their best asset and certainly someone that should be shopped at the deadline. I think “at least one blue chip star” is optimistic, depending upon how you define “blue chip star,” but one guy in say the 40 to 60 range and a couple of lottery tickets or fringe prospects is possible and would be enough to do the deal.

      Like

      1. The moré highly rated prospects tend to be those closest to the majors. Since the Phillies are not going any place soon, I’d prefer prospects in the lower minors were it not for the higher risk factor.

        Two guys in the 40-60 range you cite are Austin Meadows and Julio Urias. Either would be a good get. Tyler Glasnow is another low-minors prospect I’d like to have.

        The Pirates’ GM isn’t very sharp either. Maybe the Phils can send Lee and cash to the Pirates for either Glasnow or Meadows and a second prospect like Reese McGuire.

        Like

        1. The Pirates GM is actually really good when it comes to minor league talent. You aren’t getting Glasnow in a deal and Meadows or McGuire are a stretch. If you are targeting the Pirates someone like Josh Bell or Nick Kingham could be in play, but more likely a Harold Ramirez type.

          Like

        2. IMO, Pirates have the return value assets, but just will not take on Lee’s salary at this point.

          Like

  10. Anyone know what is Tommy Joseph’s current injury? I thought he came back from the foul tip to the mask, but now he’s out again.

    Like

  11. Looks like Ruben personally went down to Texas and scouted both Tyler Kozek and Aaron Nola earlier this week, I guess that means all indications point to a pitcher with the 7th pick. though Kozek may be gone by then.

    Like

      1. Normally, Ruben doesn’t always go out on ‘field trips’ but like you said…doing their due diligence since the number 7 selection has to be a winner..

        Like

    2. Anyone else see Tyler Beede pitch for Vandy on TV the other day. Big guy but I can’t say I was all that impressed. Seemed to have a good off speed pitch ,but seemed to be behind most of the hitters.

      Like

Comments are closed.